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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
4 July 2014
Market Snapshot
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Global Indices
Closing
% Chg
% YTD
INITIATING COVERAGE
Dow Jones
17,068
0.5
3.0
NASDAQ
4,486
0.6
7.4
FTSE
6,865
0.7
1.7
CAC
4,490
1.0
4.5
COMPANY UPDATE
DAX
10,029
1.2
5.0
Russia
(3.6)
Global News
Dow Jones index rose above 17,000 for the first time following job report that
suggested hiring in the country accelerated last month. The jobs report is the
latest piece of data to show the US economy continues to improve steadily.
Japanese stocks dropped on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak
as investors took a breather from recent gains as they awaited the outcome of
the U.S. jobs data.
Sesa Sterlite Ltd: India's largest private iron ore miner, expects to resume
production in the country's Goa state in September. The miner expects its total
iron ore output at 9.29 MT in the current fiscal year to March 2015.
Sun Pharma: The Company is recalling 200 vials of the chemotherapy
drug gemcitabine in the United States due to a lack of assurance of sterility.
The voluntary recall was initiated in April and was classified by the FDA as
Class II, meaning that use of or exposure to the recalled drug may cause
temporary or medically reversible adverse health consequences.
SAIL: The new government could sell a 5% stake in the state-run SAIL in the
last week of this month. The marketing roadshows for the stake sale, valued
at about USD340mn at the current market price, will begin soon after the
presentation of the federal budget scheduled for July 10.
HDIL: The Company has sold its multiplex business, HDIL Entertainment which
runs 33 multiplexes under the brand name Kulraj Broadway, to Carnival
Films for INR1.05bn.
1,391
0.0
Bovespa
53,875
1.6
4.6
Nikkei
15,348
(0.1)
(5.1)
Hang Seng
23,531
(0.1)
1.0
2,063
0.2
(2.5)
Closing
% Chg
% YTD
25,824
(0.1)
22.0
7,715
(0.1)
22.4
501
(0.4)
23.1
Shanghai Composite
Indian Indices
Sensex
Nifty
MSCI India
CNX Midcap
11,360
0.1
40.7
BSE Smallcap
10,419
(0.1)
59.0
Flows (USDm)
FII
Prev. Day
MTD
(688)
(313)
12
(25)
Locals
Provisional flows
(USDm)
FIIs
159
Locals
Volumes
Cash (NSE + BSE)
F&O (net)
FII F&O
Net ($ mn)
(105)
USDbn
% Chg
3.5
(12.2)
17.5
(17.5)
Stock Fut
Index Fut
(113)
(45)
2.2
(1.0)
ADR/GDR Gainers
Last
% Chg
Tata Motors
42.1
2.4
8.9
2.3
Ranbaxy
ICICI Bank
50.8
1.3
Wipro
12.2
0.7
HDFC
49.7
0.5
ADR/GDR Losers
Last
% Chg
Reliance
33.9
(1.3)
4 July 2014 | 2
Sectoral indices
Delivery Spike
Closing
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
Company
BSE Auto
16,093
0.8
5.5
31.3
Adani
BSE Bank
17,695
(0.3)
1.3
36.1
Glenmark
Volume
Spike (%)
Chg (%)
779,758
358%
0.56
1,246,376
197%
5.64
16,674
(0.0)
2.9
62.4
BPCL
971,516
179%
(0.37)
9,129
0.6
2.9
56.8
HCLTech
969,505
131%
(0.94)
BSE FMCG
6,793
0.3
1.7
3.4
Rel Capital
711,190
113%
0.44
BSE IT
9,294
0.3
(0.6)
2.3
Tata Motors
4,126,633
103%
3.06
2,521,591
99%
1.94
483,550
74%
0.68
BSE Health
11,763
1.1
2.6
18.0
Sun Pharma
BSE Metal
13,560
(0.5)
3.5
36.1
TCS
BSE Oil
11,065
(1.2)
(0.8)
25.2
GMR Infra
31,054,580
71%
(7.70)
BSE Power
2,350
(0.9)
1.3
38.1
JP Associate
14,368,813
45%
(4.64)
BSE PSU
8,688
(0.5)
0.6
47.0
BSE Realty
2,076
(1.5)
(0.1)
44.8
BSE TECK
5,254
0.1
(0.2)
4.0
Nifty Outperformers
Derivatives Update
Long Build Up
Company
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
UCOBANK
113
BIOCON
543
5.8
5.1
25,072
3.9
10.6
ARVIND
5,404
244
3.7
9.7
7,542
BHARATFORG
672
1.2
14.6
3,054
Price
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
470
3.1
8.9
24.8
Short Build Up
Wipro Ltd
556
2.7
1.7
(0.7)
Company
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
707
1.9
2.7
24.6
GMRINFRA
31
(7.5)
46.4
229,760
1,236
1.3
7.7
30.9
JPASSOCIAT
72
(5.1)
15.4
151,616
Cipla Ltd
448
0.8
2.2
11.7
Lupin Ltd
1,082
0.7
3.2
19.1
SAIL
96
(3.3)
3.4
54,408
2,418
0.7
(0.3)
11.3
276
(3.1)
9.2
6,240
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
M&MFIN
Short Covering
Company
Nifty Underperformers
TATAMOTORS
469
2.8
(4.0)
20,312
AUROPHARMA
774
2.3
(3.6)
9,746
HDIL
103
1.4
(5.5)
33,120
IRB
252
1.0
(5.3)
12,956
Company
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
33
(4.6)
(5.3)
188,445
Price
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
2,588
(3.4)
(1.8)
24.7
174
(2.5)
5.8
41.7
107
(2.3)
(0.9)
21.2
2,300
(2.1)
(0.7)
20.4
Profit Booking
418
(2.0)
(1.6)
44.7
573
(1.9)
0.3
36.3
UNITECH
361
(1.6)
(1.0)
11.6
IBREALEST
96
(3.9)
(5.6)
31,996
NHPC
27
(2.0)
(3.5)
74,232
576
(1.8)
(2.3)
5,381
INDUSINDBK
Bulk Deals
Date
Security Name
Client Name
Buy/Sell
Qty
Price
3-Jul-14
AmtekAuto-Roll Sett
SELL
2,070,947
255.93
3-Jul-14
SELL
2,500,000
129.01
3-Jul-14
HDIL
BUY
2,950,000
102.25
3-Jul-14
SELL
2,000,000
101.01
3-Jul-14
SELL
403,310
224.30
3-Jul-14
BUY
150,000
214.40
3-Jul-14
Aagam Cap
BUY
146,605
174.87
3-Jul-14
Aagam Cap
SELL
117,000
174.23
3-Jul-14
Pokarna
BUY
96,000
241.04
3-Jul-14
SELL
85,000
208.20
3-Jul-14
SELL
135699
86.70
4 July 2014 | 3
Nifty
Nifty P/E
7900
Nifty P/B
24
3.6
22
7050
3.2
20
6200
18
2.8
16
5350
2.4
14
4500
12
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
2.0
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg
Sensex
26000
4,000
24000
22000
750
2,000
20000
18000
-750
16000
-2,000
Jul-13
14000
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
-1,500
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities Update
Last
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
Commodities
Last
% Chg
% MTD
INR~USD
59.7
(0.1)
0.7
3.4
Gold ($/Ounce)
INR~EUR
81.6
0.0
0.8
4.3
INR~GBP
102.4
0.1
0.3
(0.3)
% YTD
1,320
0.0
(0.6)
9.5
104
(0.0)
(1.3)
8.8
Aluminium ($/t)
1,907
0.5
2.7
8.7
Copper ($/t)
7,186
0.7
2.1
(2.6)
Bond Market
Last
Chg (bps)
MTD (bps)
YTD (bps)
Zinc ($/t)
2,232
(0.5)
0.8
8.7
10 Year Bond
8.7
(0)
(9)
(17)
Lead ($/t)
2,167
(0.6)
1.0
(1.1)
Interbank call
7.1
10
(150)
(165)
19,800
1.3
4.4
43.1
INR/USD
Nickel ($/t)
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Crude prices
2000
60
1500
45
1000
30
500
15
110
100
90
80
Jun-11
Jun-14
Jun-12
Jun-13
Go ld (LHS)
Jun-14
Silver (RHS)
70
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg
Nifty premium/discount
40
30
35.1
27.9
23.0
24.7
21.3
17
16
20
10
Feb-13
Inflatio n (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Jul-13
Dec-13 May-14
10 Yr Yield (%)
19
18
15
0
27-Jun 30-Jun 01-Jul
02-Jul
03-Jul
3Jun
9Jun
15Jun
21Jun
27Jun
3Jul
INITIATING COVERAGE
Reco
: BUY
CMP
: INR170
Target Price
: INR230
Sagar Lele
Pratish Krishnan
Market data
Sensex
Sector
IT
33.7
0.6
25,824
194.9
190/117
569
Bloomberg
KPIT IN
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
EPS (INR)
13.2
15.9
19.1
PE (x)
12.9
10.7
8.9
2.5
2.0
1.7
14.3
8.6
7.8
0.8
0.9
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Bloomberg
Returns (%)
1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
44
Relative
(8)
(19)
We initiate coverage on KPIT Technologies with a Buy rating and target price of
INR230 per share. KPIT is a leading player in the automotive engineering space
making it well-positioned to capture growth opportunities from increasing
adoption of electronics in automobiles. We have a positive outlook on the
company led by: 1) Earnings CAGR of 20% over FY14-16e on account of strong
revenue growth and likely margin expansion, 2) Revenue CAGR of 14% (FY1416e), led by leadership in the automotive engineering space, stabilisation of
decline in top client (Cummins) and turnaround in SAP practice, 3) Increased
focus on key clients and re-organisation leading to improved client mining. The
management expects key accounts to contribute to 65-70% of its goal of USD
1bn in revenues by 2017, 4) Potential to expand margins, given tailwinds from
profitability in SAP SBU; higher offshoring; and increased utilisation.
The stock trades at 11x FY15e and 9x FY16e earnings, which is ~15% discount
to its peers. In its peer set, it is the third largest player in terms of revenues
(after Mphasis and Mindtree). However, it trades at a FY16e EV/Sales of
1.2x, which is lower than Mphasis (1.5x) and Mindtree (1.6x). Post a dismal
FY14, margins and earnings are set to improve and we see scope for rerating. We recommend a Buy with a target price of INR230 per share.
Turnaround in top client and SAP SBU
In FY14, KPIT's YoY revenue growth slowed to 8% from 20% CAGR over FY08-13. It saw a
5% decline in revenues from its top client and 10% dip from the SAP SBU. Together these two
areas constitute to 42% of revenues. Going ahead, revenues from Cummins are likely to
stabilise as the company's outlook improves. On the SAP front, KPIT has successfully aligned
its services with SAP's transformed product mix and has closed multiple deals recently, showing
signs of recovery. We expect the SBU to grow at a 10% CAGR over FY14-16e.
Well positioned in the automotive engineering space
KPIT provides product engineering services for every sub-domain of automobiles, from invehicle networks to powertrain. The total spend on electronics in vehicles is expected to rise to
~30% in the next five years from 12-13%. Outsourcing in this area is still nascent at 8% (rest
in-house) and is growing faster by 250-300bps than captives. KPIT's leadership will aid its
growth in this segment. This SBU constitutes for 25% of revenues and we expect organic
CAGR of 21% over FY14-16e.
See significant tailwinds to margins
In FY14, the SAP SBU reported negative margins of 5-6%. With this business turning around,
we expect 5% EBITDA margins in the SBU for FY15e. In addition, the margin levers available
are: 1) Likely increase in offshoring to 52-53% in 2-3 years from 46% in FY14; 2) Likely higher
utilisation to ~74% in FY15e from 71% in FY14; 3) Employee pyramid rationalisation; and 4)
likely growth in IP revenues with monetisation of products like Revolo.
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern
Promoters
22%
FII
33%
DII
7%
Others
38%
Source: Bloomberg
The stock trades at 11x FY15e and 9x FY16e. Considering its likely recovery and positioning
compared to midcap peers, we see potential for a re-rating. We are valuing the company at
12x FY16e earnings, which is a 20% discount to Persistent. We are valuing midcap IT stocks
at a discount of 15-30% to Tier-I vendors. We initiate a Buy on KPIT with a target price of
INR230 per share.
Key financials
Year ended March (INRm)
2014
2015e
2016e
313
410
445
505
579
15,000
22,386
26,940
30,305
34,711
2,166
3,641
4,208
4,845
5,875
14.4
16.3
15.6
16.0
16.9
PAT
Source: Bloomberg
2013
Revenues (INRm)
EBITDA margin (%)
KPIT Tech
2012
Revenues (USDm)
EBITDA
Oct-13 Feb-14
4 July 2014 | 4
1,450
2,367
2,515
3,005
3,595
Jun-14
9.7
10.6
9.3
9.9
10.4
NIFTY
EPS
8.1
12.1
13.2
15.9
19.1
4 July 2014 | 5
Investment thesis
KPIT is an IT services and product engineering company, which specialises in automotive and
transportation, manufacturing and energy, and utilities. It provides product engineering services
for every sub-domain of an automobile, including in-vehicle networks, body electronics, safety,
infotainment, powertrain, vehicle diagnostics, etc. It works with 10 of the top 12 automotive
original equipment manufacturers in the world. It is also a leading provider of application
services for Oracle and SAP. From FY08-14, its revenues have organically and inorganically
grown at 20% CAGR.
We initiate coverage on KPIT with a Buy rating and target price of INR230 per share, an
upside of 23% from current levels. From FY08 to FY13, KPIT saw revenue and earnings
CAGR of 23% and 35%, respectively. However, it faced some headwinds in FY14, which
slowed revenue and earnings growth to 8% and 9%, respectively. Going forward, we expect:
1. The company's performance is likely to pick-up, with the pain areas behind it. Top client
revenues (which declined 5% in FY14) are likely to stabilise while the SAP SBU (which
declined 10% in FY14) is likely to turnaround.
2. Leadership in the fast-growing automotive product engineering market (25% of revenues)
will help boost growth. We expect organic growth from automotive and engineering to
be 14% for FY15e and 16% for FY16e.
3. Changed organisation structure, sales approach, and focus areas to penetrate clients
wider and deeper are likely to support growth in the coming years. The company intends
to mine ~50 strategic and potential strategic accounts in order to reach its goal of USD1bn
in revenues by 2017.
4. The company has potential to expand margins given the turnaround in its SAP business,
prospective offshoring, higher utilisation, and pyramid rationalisation.
5. The stock is trading at 11x FY15e and 9x FY16e, which is at a ~15% discount to its
peers. Going forward, likely recovery in problem areas and higher margins, and improving
growth trajectory are likely to lead to a re-rating.
Key assumptions
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15e
Revenue (USDm)
147
174
154
222
313
410
445
505
579
43%
19%
-12%
44%
41%
31%
8%
13%
15%
13%
23%
22%
15%
14%
16%
16%
16%
17%
-270
1055
-105
-703
-60
183
-74
46
94
EPS (INR)
6.56
8.41
10.80
5.49
8.08
12.07
13.21
15.94
19.07
20%
28%
28%
-49%
47%
49%
PE (x)
FY16e
9%
21%
20%
12.87
10.66
8.91
Target PE (x)
12.00
49%
22%
16%
13%
16%
36%
22%
11%
23%
17%
SAP
38%
24%
-10%
8%
12%
32%
7%
11%
4 July 2014 | 6
1 month
3 months
6 months
12 months
Nifty
15
21
35
NSE IT Index
50
TCS
10
10
61
Infosys
-1
-9
34
Wipro
-3
-4
52
HCL Tech
14
85
12
11
11
94
-2
13
Tech Mahindra
Mid caps under coverage
Mphasis
Hexaware
-1
15
83
KPIT
-1
-4
38
Persistent
11
13
122
MindTree
30
36
18
120
Cyient
30
95
NIIT Tech
16
22
60
58
83
Polaris
Source: Bloomberg
FY09
Mindtree
FY10
Persistent
FY11
FY12
Hexaware
FY13
Mphasis
FY14
Cyient
YTD
NIIT Tech
4 July 2014 | 7
Midcap synopsis
Recommendation
Target Price
CMP
KPIT
Mindtree
Cyient
NIIT Tech
Hexaware
Mphasis
Persistent
BUY
na
na
na
SELL
BUY
BUY
230
na
na
na
125
520
1,400
170
864
653
449
152
425
1,087
35%
na
na
na
-18%
22%
29%
FY13
410
436
345
372
364
1,025
238
FY14
445
502
363
382
388
420
274
FY15e
505
589
429
419
397
1,020
329
Upside/ (Downside) %
Revenue (USD)
FY16e
579
694
480
467
445
1,143
387
10.9%
16.2%
11.5%
6.2%
4.4%
na
17.6%
14.1%
17.7%
15.0%
10.6%
7.1%
na
18.8%
15%
8.3%
15.1%
5.3%
2.7%
6.4%
na
FY15e
13.5%
17.4%
17.9%
9.7%
2.5%
na
20%
FY16e
14.7%
17.9%
12.1%
11.5%
12.0%
12%
18%
FY13
3,641
4,864
3,416
3,380
4,074
10,335
3,349
FY14
4,183
6,100
4,101
3,631
5,123
4,778
4,262
FY15e
4,845
6,635
4,779
4,155
4,885
11,044
5,217
FY16e
5,875
8,224
5,369
4,750
5,484
12,997
6,171
FY14
15.5%
20.1%
18.6%
15.8%
22.4%
18.2%
25.5%
FY15e
16.0%
19.0%
18.6%
16.5%
20.2%
17.9%
26.2%
FY16e
16.9%
20.0%
18.6%
16.9%
20.4%
18.8%
26.4%
2,276
3,393
2,311
2,184
3,276
7,437
1,876
EBITDA (INRm)
EBITDA %
PAT (INRm)
FY13
FY14
2,490
4,508
2,660
2,382
3,791
3,472
2,493
FY15e
3,005
4,664
3,474
2,644
3,512
8,160
3,209
FY16e
3,595
5,798
3,956
3,022
4,088
9,686
3,957
EPS (INR)
FY13
12
41
21
36
11
35
47
FY14
13
54
24
38
13
15
62
FY15e
16
55
31
43
12
39
80
FY16e
19
68
35
49
14
46
99
9%
31%
15%
7%
16%
na
33%
21%
2%
29%
13%
-7%
na
29%
YoY %
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
20%
23%
15%
14%
16%
19%
23%
15%
15.5%
21.8%
10.2%
4%
na
31%
20%
12.0%
21.9%
13.7%
4%
na
26%
Valuations
EV/ Sales
FY14
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.0
1.9
1.6
2.3
FY15e
1.4
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.8
nm
1.8
FY16e
1.2
1.6
1.1
0.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
EV/ EBITDA
FY14
14.5
8.0
7.1
6.2
8.3
9.1
8.9
FY15e
8.7
10.1
6.8
6.2
8.7
nm
6.7
FY16e
8.0
8.1
6.1
5.5
7.8
8.5
5.2
FY15e
10.7
15.6
21.3
10.4
12.8
10.9
13.5
FY16e
8.9
12.7
18.5
9.1
11.0
9.2
11.0
PE (x)
4 July 2014 | 8
FY11
FY15e
FY12
FY16e
FY13
Antique FY15e
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
FY14
Antique FY16e
160
140
120
100
Valuations
sustained
despite
relatively
lower
performance
in FY14
80
60
40
20
KPIT
Source: Bloomberg, Antique
3X
5X
7X
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Apr-07
Jul-07
9X
11X
20%
Persistent
Mindtree
Cyient
KPIT
18%
16%
14%
12%
Polaris
10%
NIIT Tech
8%
Hexaw are
6%
4%
2%
30%
EPS CAGR (FY14-16e) (%)
4 July 2014 | 9
Persistent
25%
Cyient
KPIT
Polaris
20%
15%
NIIT Tech
Mindtree
10%
5%
Hexaw are
0%
0%
0.0
5.0
10.0
0.0
15.0
5.0
PE (x)
10.0
15.0
PE (x)
500
50%
450
40%
400
90
40%
80
30%
70
20%
350
30%
300
250
20%
50
200
10%
40
150
0%
100
-10%
50
-20%
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
60
10%
0%
-10%
30
20
-20%
10
-30%
-40%
0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
35%
30%
4 July 2014 | 10
27%
30%
25%
25%
20%
20%
16%
16%
15%
11%
15%
10%
5%
10%
5%
-3%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-10%
Integrated
Enterprise
Solutions
Auto and
Engineering
SAP
-15%
-14%
-20%
BTU
Energy and
Utilities
Others
90
40%
80
30%
70
20%
30
60
10%
50
0%
40
-10%
30
20
-20%
10
-30%
70
-40%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
36%
22%
15%
10%
9%
11%
15,000
-4%
40%
800
30%
700
20%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-25%
0
Revenue (USDm)
3.5%
3.1%
2.9%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
200
-30%
4.5%
4.0%
300
100
1.5%
1.0%
2007
Source: Bloomberg
4.1%
3.5%
3.4%
500
-20%
4.2%
600
400
10,000
5,000
4 July 2014 | 11
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
-20%
Integrated Enterprise Solutions
SAP
To align its offerings with the changes at SAP, KPIT undertook steps that included:
1. Expanded geographically, and made significant investments in Asia and Europe to
increase footprint
2. Focused on increasing its footprint in the support and maintenance part of the SAP SBU.
KPIT has been winning large and long-term on-premise application management services
deals in North America and Europe. It is hoping to convert some of its large deal wins in
4 July 2014 | 12
Asia to AMS on-premise deals. It intends to receive 60-70% of AMS revenues from ~20%
currently, which is more profitable and stable
3. Offerings specific to the energy and utilities vertical turned mature, with KPIT seeing
increased traction in this space, due to the go-to-market strategy with SAP
4. Added a team of 25 SuccessFactors' certified consultants, under a business transfer
agreement with an SF specialist company: Learn2Perform. As per the deal, all employees
and customers of L2P were transferred to KPIT, thus adding growth capability in the SAP
SBU
5. Incurred heavy investments in the cloud aspect of SAP. This area has been seeing
tremendous traction. KPIT expects 4x growth from the cloud business in FY15e
6. Invested in the High-Performance Analytic Appliance suite, where SAP is seeing significant
progress. It is beginning to see increased traction here, and expects it to auger well
going forward.
SAP SBU back on track led by strong deal flows
For FY15e, KPIT aims to: 1) Concentrate on profitability in the SAP SBU; and 2) Usher growth
back. In FY15e, it expects to return to modest profitability in the SAP SBU. Over the last few
quarters, it has progressed in terms of deal flows. These include:
1. Closed orders worth USD50m and built a healthy pipeline in the SAP SBU during 3QFY14
2. KPIT won over 17 deals in 4QFY14, with a total value of USD78.5m (on-premise and
cloud together). The company is seeing very high traction in the geographies of US and
Asia-Pacific
3. AMS support services have been a major area of focus, where KPIT has landed seven
multi-year, multi-million dollar deals to support SAP and other technologies for large
customers
40%
140
35%
120
30%
100
25%
80
20%
60
15%
40
10%
20
5%
0%
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
4 July 2014 | 13
76,000,000
70,000
65,000
74,000,000
72,000,000
70,000,000
55,000
68,000,000
50,000
66,000,000
45,000
64,000,000
62,000,000
40,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg
5%4%
3%
8%
7%
35%
13%
10%
54%
17%
49%
43%
20%
23%
ISV
Automotive
Aerospace
Source: Zinnov Research
Semiconductor
Telecom
Others
Automotive
Aerospace
ISV
Telecom
Semiconductor
Others
Automotive
Semiconductor
Consumer electronics
4 July 2014 | 14
40%
60%
OEMs
4 July 2014 | 15
Source: Company
4 July 2014 | 16
For example, a domain expert from the A&E SBU would sell solutions but would be unable to
extend it to application services. This left customers under-penetrated, with gaps in service
provided to accounts. This is evident from the high concentration of certain services in KPIT's
verticals, leaving potential areas for growth.
KPIT: Vertical/SBU split
FY14 revenues (USDm)
Automotive
Manufacturing
A&E
55%
10%
0%
SAP
15%
30%
60%
IES
30%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
Total
To ensure consolidated offerings, KPIT reorganised its business to focus on verticals. With this,
sales and account management functions were organised by verticals and backed by offerings
provided by SBUs. Recently, the company hired some high-level people to strengthen its
vertical leadership. KPIT is in the process of reorganising its structure, and expects full
implementation to be complete by 1QFY15.
Focus on key accounts
With the new organisation in place, KPIT has identified ~26 strategic accounts and ~20
potentially strategic clients, which are aligned with the verticals. It will focus on ~50 top
accounts to penetrate deeper, by partnering in multiple areas. In the last two-to-three years,
it has acquired a lot of accounts through its go-to-market strategy in the areas of SAP, Oracle,
and A&E. Now, the whole focus will be to bring collaboration and cross-selling across business
units. To aid this process, it also formed the Business Transformation Unit, which will bring
together the strengths of all SBUs and create larger deals for strategic accounts. According to
the management, these accounts have the potential of contributing 65-70% of the USD1bn
revenue goal that KPIT aims to achieve by 2017.
Faster growth from key customers in FY14
KPIT's focus on penetrating clients deeper can be seen as growth in its Top 10 clients and star
customer accounts were more in FY14 than overall revenues. In FY14, while overall revenues
grew 8% YoY, revenues from the Top 10 clients, excluding Cummins, grew 29%. The same
from star customers (excluding Cummins) grew 14%. We have excluded Cummins as the
account witnessed a 5% decline in FY14.
Faster growth in Top 10 accounts (excluding Cummins)
than overall growth
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
29%
200
40%
30%
150
50%
40%
14%
20%
100
10%
8%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
0%
-10%
50
-20%
20%
10%
8%
0%
-10%
FY14
-20%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
30%
4 July 2014 | 17
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
33%
50%
40%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
17%
3%
-7%
-10%
-20%
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
20%
5,000
18%
16%
4,000
14%
3,000
12%
2,000
10%
1,000
8%
6%
0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
FY13
FY14
A&E
24-25
22-23
IES
18
18-19
BTU
nm
19-20
SAP
4-5
(5-6)
Source: Company
4 July 2014 | 18
FY14
In 2-3 years
A&E
75
75
SAP
15
25-30
IES
59
70
Total
46
52-53
Source: Company
96%
75%
94%
74%
92%
73%
90%
72%
71%
88%
70%
86%
69%
68%
84%
4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14
Onsite - LHS
Offshore - RHS
4. Pyramid rationalisation
Of KPIT's total hiring, 50% constitutes freshers hired in the last three years. This has led to
significant pyramid rationalisation in recent years. As of FY14, 35% of KPIT's employee base
was in the within three year work experience bracket. This number is expected to go higher,
as KPIT intends to maintain 50% of its hires as freshers for the next two-to-three years. This
would lead to further margin expansion going forward.
4 July 2014 | 19
Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm)
2012
2013
2014 2015e
Revenues
15,000
22,386
26,940
30,305
34,711
PBT
Expenses
12,834
18,745
22,732
25,460
28,837
2,166
3,641
4,208
4,845
5,875
EBIDTA
Depreciation
EBIT
Other income
445
472
540
606
694
1,721
3,170
3,669
4,239
5,181
138
117
-78
224
93
Interest expense
Profit before tax
Taxes including deferred taxation
Extra ordinary items & others
Profit after tax
2016e
Interest expense
Interest/dividend received
Tax paid
(Purchase)/sale of Investments
Income from investments
CF from investing activities
Inc/(dec) in share capital
(998)
(941)
(1,227)
1,203
1,292
1,981
3,352
(609)
(701)
(696)
(1,073)
(1,030)
(2,285)
(2,875)
413
(915)
(66)
66
72
77
93
(2,828)
(3,503)
(283)
(1,911)
(1,003)
65
1,662
1,160
1,332
1,177
(667)
(552)
(141)
(273)
(258)
(231)
(211)
126
(1,841)
1,210
2,726
(921)
(898)
(762)
1,587
2013
357
387
387
387
387
7,094
10,246
12,364
15,369
18,964
Net worth
7,451
10,633
12,751
15,756
19,351
Debt
2,139
3,213
4,390
3,722
3,171
375
143
233
273
313
Capital employed
9,965
13,988
17,374
19,752
22,835
3,822
4,335
5,273
6,073
7,073
Accumulated depreciation
2,155
2,573
3,112
3,719
4,413
2012
2013
Net assets
1,668
1,762
2,161
2,355
2,661
Revenue
52.0
49.2
20.3
12.5
14.5
958
1,498
1,182
1,928
2,158
EBITDA
45.9
68.1
15.6
15.1
21.3
2016e
Inc/(dec) in debt
(268)
1,008
2012
Share capital
2014 2015e
(93)
(1,468)
Capital expenditure
211
-
1,468
19.1
231
(1,055)
1,227
15.9
258
(1,784)
941
13.2
142
(1,995)
766
12.1
694
73
5,063
(1,083)
437
8.1
606
(870)
540
211
3,595
472
5,063
445
(77)
231
3,005
2016e
4,232
122
4,232
258
2,515
3,430
(72)
3,334
-13
2014 2015e
(104)
142
2,367
2,847
(54)
3,146
100
2013
1,886
(204)
73
1,450
2012
Other adjustments
1,786
Recurring EPS
(610)
426
88
(829)
Opening balance
2,080
1,467
1,921
1,908
1,079
Closing balance
1,470
1,893
2,009
1,079
2,666
2014 2015e
2016e
582
2,154
1,741
2,656
2,722
PAT
53.0
63.3
6.3
19.5
19.6
3,623
4,423
5,994
5,994
5,994
EPS
47.2
49.5
9.4
20.7
19.6
6,450
8,010
10,156
10,850
13,533
Debtors
4,233
4,673
6,743
7,473
8,369
1,473
1,921
1,908
1,079
2,666
2012
2013
2014 2015e
2016e
745
1,417
1,505
2,299
2,499
PE
21.0
14.1
12.9
10.7
8.9
3,315
3,860
3,860
4,032
4,234
P/BV
4.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.7
Creditors
1,757
1,904
1,021
1,143
1,295
EV/EBITDA
7.9
18.6
14.3
8.6
7.8
1,559
1,956
2,839
2,889
2,939
EV/Sales
1.7
2.8
2.1
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.9
2014 2015e
2016e
Goodwill
Current assets, loans & adv
3,135
4,151
6,296
6,818
9,299
Application of funds
9,965
13,988
17,374
19,752
22,835
Valuation (x)
Financial ratios
2012
2013
RoE (%)
19.5
22.3
19.7
19.1
18.6
RoCE (%)
21.7
26.0
24.2
24.5
25.7
2012
2013
2014 2015e
2016e
180
188
188
188
188
41.4
56.4
67.7
83.6
102.7
Debt/Equity (x)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
EBIT/Interest (x)
23.5
22.4
14.2
18.4
24.6
11.4
21.6
19.4
19.8
28.6
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.6
2014 2015e
2016e
Margins (%)
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
EBIDTA
14.4
16.3
15.6
16.0
16.9
EBIT
11.5
14.2
13.6
14.0
14.9
9.7
10.6
9.3
9.9
10.4
PAT
Source: Company, Antique
4 July 2014 | 20
COMPANY UPDATE
Current Reco
: BUY
Previous Reco
: BUY
CMP
: INR673
Target Price
: INR861
Strides has received a series of ANDA approvals like Methoxsalen (soft gel
approval), Pramipexole, and Imiquimod (first dermatology approval) in the
last one month. The recently approved ANDAs, along with other pending
ANDAs, should result in an EBITDA CAGR of 31.9% from FY14-16e for its
unsold Pharma business. The recently awarded tenders for Arthemether and
Lumefantrine (A+L) should also be meaningful driver in the medium-term.
We are raising our target price by 21% to INR861/share, incorporating Lovaza
and Avodart in our estimates, and also raising target multiple to 12x from
11x (inline with other midcap).
Hitesh Mahida
25,824
Sector
Pharma
40.0
0.7
59.6
675/239
265
Bloomberg
STR IN
FY15e
FY16e
56.1
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation
FY14
EPS (INR)
16.4
37.8
PE (x)
29.6
12.8
8.6
2.6
2.1
1.7
12.7
9.4
6.0
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
The company has already received two positive approvals - Methoxsalen and Imiquimod after the recent USFDA clearance for its Bangalore and Italian plants. Strides's partners are
also gaining share in older products like Vancomycin and Ergocalciferol, which have not
seen any new competition despite over two years of genericisation, due to complexity in
development and manufacturing. With recent approvals and pending ANDAs like Combivir,
Tacrolimus, Lovaza and Avodart the US business is on a high growth phase. The company
also has three more soft gel filings and one more dermatology filing pending approval.
Majority of the products in these two segments enjoy limited competition. Lovaza launch in
FY16 will be a game changer, with total brand sales of USD1.1bn and only 4-5 players.
A+L tender to provide further fillip
It has won tenders for A+L from global humanitarian funds. The overall market size of A+L is
close to USD350m. Even a 15% market share could result in annualised sales of USD20m for
the company. It had started supplies only in 2HFY14, and the drug had generated sales of
less than USD8m in FY14.
SoTP-based target price
Sr.
Particular
Source: Bloomberg
1.
Returns (%)
2.
PV of USD100m kept in escrow account for tax purpose (INR per share)
3.
1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
27
59
84
77
Relative
22
39
48
31
INR/share
673
69
237
4.
119
Source: Bloomberg
5.
861
Shareholding pattern
6.
Promoters
28%
Source: Antique
FII
49%
DII
3%
Others
20%
Key financials
Source: Bloomberg
Revenue (INRm)
150
130
110
90
70
Jun-13
CY11
CY12
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
25,245
23,073
13,410
13,818
17,951
4,878
5,353
2,234
2,847
4,057
19.3
23.2
16.7
20.6
22.6
1,976
3,061
946
2,225
3,298
EPS (INR)
34.2
53.0
16.4
37.8
56.1
P/E (x)
14.2
9.1
29.6
12.8
8.6
ROCE
9.2
9.5
4.3
12.8
17.7
15.4
22.3
4.7
20.5
25.2
EBITDA (INRm)
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT (INRm)
Oct-13 Feb-14
Strides Arcolab
Source: Bloomberg
Jun-14
NIFTY
742
ROE
Source: Company, Antique
4 July 2014 | 21
Launch
status
Methoxsalen
Launched
Lovaza
FY16
Avodart
Combivir
Brand
size
(USDm)
Number
of
players
Expected
sales
(USDm)
Expected
EBITDA
(USDm)
Comments
14
1,100
22
Nov-15
580
2QFY15
275
Tacrolimus
2QFY15
955
10
Calcitriol
2QFY15
30
Soft gel
Strides Arcolab's partners Alvogen and Paddock have gained positive market share in Vancomycin and Ergocalciferol
Oral Vancomycin TRx share
Akorn
12%
Others
12%
Others
2%
Paddock
14%
Teva
43%
Alvogen
48%
Prasco
17%
Breckenridge
15%
Actavis
21%
Source: Company, Antique
Rising
16%
Source: Company, Antique
4 July 2014 | 22
Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm)
CY11
CY12
FY14 FY15e
Net Sales
25,245
23,073
13,410
13,818
17,951
Generic
3,560
4,218
5,490
8,792
Material costs
12,638
9,980
7,147
7,600
9,711
Branded
2,180
2,736
3,283
3,940
Employee cost
2,801
2,809
1,572
1,575
1,993
Institutional
3,520
4,446
5,045
5,219
Other Expenses
4,929
4,931
2,457
1,796
2,190
Total
9,260
11,400
13,818
17,951
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
Operating expenses
FY16e
20,367
17,720
11,175
10,972
13,894
EBITDA
4,878
5,353
2,234
2,847
4,057
Depreciation
1,043
1,095
565
507
593
EBIT
3,835
4,258
1,669
2,339
3,464
526
583
602
663
729
Interest
1,903
1,934
1,089
220
70
PBT
2,459
2,907
1,183
2,782
4,123
387
1,021
3,245
556
825
2,072
3,072
946
2,225
3,298
95
11
Net profits
1,976
3,061
946
2,225
3,298
AEPS
34.2
53.0
16.4
37.8
56.1
Other income
Tax
APAT
Minority interest & prior period items
Share capital
Reserves & surplus
Net Worth
Minority interest
Total borrowings
Other liabilities
FY13
CY12
584
588
FY14 FY15e
588
588
FY16e
588
13,131
19,674
10,265
12,490
15,788
13,715
20,263
10,853
13,078
16,376
465
719
719
719
719
25,664
14,161
2,711
1,611
511
93
287
287
287
287
Total liabilities
39,937
35,429
14,570
15,696
17,894
Gross block
16,622
18,239
6,239
6,739
7,879
FY16e
CY11
CY12
Net profit
1976
3061
946
2225
3298
1043
1095
565
507
593
-5354
-445
748
607
90
Others
1933
8670
6,481
1,344
763
2,126
3,801
Capital expenditure
6,720
508 (13,853)
545
1,243
CY11
FY14 FY15e
(18)
4,430
(6,565)
(8,065)
46,714
(545)
(1,243)
(83)
(6,722)
47,478
1,581
2,559
(11,504) (11,449)
(1,100)
(1,100)
0
Equity raised/(repaid)
5,566
136
137
34,744
(6,446)
21,541
(1,017)
9,900
(46,193)
(1,100)
(1,100)
(1,100)
3,179
1,284
481
1,459
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
Others
CY11
CY12
Revenue
48.9
(8.6)
(41.9)
3.0
29.9
EBITDA
49.4
9.7
(58.3)
27.4
42.5
-4,572
-4,976
-1,541
-2,048
-2,641
PAT
62.2
54.9
(69.1)
135.1
48.2
12,050
13,264
4,699
4,692
5,239
AEPS
62.2
54.9
(69.1)
130.9
48.2
3,523
2,414
562
607
709
20,046
16,919
16
16
16
4430
4430
4430
CY11
CY12
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
18,921
15,378
11,323
12,301
15,429
14.2
9.1
29.6
12.8
8.6
Inventories
4,799
4,423
1,797
1,974
2,564
2.0
1.4
2.6
2.1
1.7
Debtors
5,384
4,832
3,618
3,937
5,016
10.5
7.7
12.7
9.4
6.0
2,597
1,657
2,942
3,422
4,881
EV/Sales (X)
2.0
1.8
2.1
1.9
1.3
1,597
1,872
374
374
374
0.4
0.4
106.0
CY11
CY12
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
15.4
22.3
4.7
20.5
25.2
RoCE
9.2
9.5
4.3
12.8
17.7
Debt/Equity (x)
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
EBIT/Interest (x)
2.0
2.2
1.5
10.6
49.6
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
4,543
2,592
2,592
2,592
2,592
11,449
11,147
6,040
5,930
7,509
Provisions
3,257
1,399
420
420
420
4,216
2,831
4,863
5,951
7,500
101
39,937
35,429
14,570
15,695
17,893
CY11
CY12
FY14 FY15e
FY16e
58
59
59
59
59
BVPS (INR)
235
345
185
222
278
CEPS (INR)
52
71
26
46
66
DPS (INR)
591
Current liabilities
Others
Total Assets
Valuation (x)
Year ended 31 Mar
PE (X)
P/BV (X)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Financial ratios
Year ended 31 Mar
RoE
Margins (%)
Year ended 31 Mar
CY11
CY12
EBITDA
19.3
23.2
16.7
20.6
EBIT
15.2
18.5
12.4
16.9
19.3
7.8
13.3
7.1
16.1
18.4
APAT
Source: Company Antique
22.6
4 July 2014 | 23
Valuation Guide
Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
(1.8)
(0.6)
1.6
FY14
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
FY15
Absolute (%)
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY15
1m
12m
(19.9) (62.3)
21.7
80.1
22.1
10.5
2.7
(7.8)
0.4
77
16.2
15.1
13.8
12.2
5.8
32.5
45.7
17
22
AUTOMOBILES
Ashok Leyland
HOLD
36
32
(10)
95
1.6
(4.8)
(1.5)
4.4
Bajaj Auto
HOLD
2,300
2,156
(6)
666
11.1
32.4
36.6
41.2
20.5
18.2
Bosch
HOLD
13,700
10,689
(22)
430
7.2
8.8
10.2
13.4
48.6
42.2
32.0
36.0
32.2
25.1
6.1
14.4
23.9
12
56
Eicher Motors
BUY
8,583
12,039
40
233
3.9
7.4
11.3
17.1
31.4
20.6
13.5
20.8
13.8
9.4
6.4
31.0
35.2
19
139
Exide Industries
HOLD
159
132
(17)
135
2.3
4.9
5.9
6.7
27.6
22.8
20.0
16.3
14.1
12.5
3.3
14.3
19.5
10
32
Hero MotoCorp
HOLD
2,588
2,827
517
8.7
21.1
28.6
36.3
24.5
18.1
14.3
18.9
13.9
10.9
7.5
41.8
57.4
56
M&M
BUY
1,236
1,316
761
12.7
38.5
40.5
49.2
58.6
74.9
21.1
20.0
16.5
14.5
12.6
10.0
4.0
20.0
24.5
26
Maruti Suzuki
BUY
2,630
2,443
(7)
794
13.3
27.8
33.7
45.0
Tata Motors
BUY
470
575
22
1,415
5.7
7.0
7.9
28.5
23.6
17.7
13.7
11.5
8.6
3.3
14.2
21.7
13
68
50.1
58.4
72.4
9.4
8.0
6.5
4.8
4.1
3.3
1.8
22.7
20.5
12
65
BUY
736
822
12
71
1.2
4.9
6.0
6.6
50.5
62.3
68.5
14.6
11.8
10.7
10.6
8.4
7.2
3.1
27.7
18.9
19
246
Ceat Limited
BUY
661
597
(10)
24
0.4
2.8
3.4
3.6
78.1
94.5
99.5
8.5
7.0
6.6
5.2
4.7
4.6
1.7
25.6
25.8
53
537
HOLD
212
212
107
1.8
9.6
11.2
11.9
19.0
22.2
23.5
11.1
9.5
9.0
6.2
5.5
5.4
1.8
20.6
29.5
15
252
Bharat Forge
BUY
672
628
(7)
156
2.6
4.2
5.7
7.6
18.0
24.4
32.7
37.5
27.6
20.5
16.8
14.0
11.2
5.0
19.6
17.5
29
210
HOLD
582
539
(7)
558
9.3
12.2
14.3
17.3
12.8
14.9
18.0
45.4
39.0
32.4
27.6
23.7
19.4
13.3
34.1
43.4
14
27
Colgate
HOLD
1,608
1,338
(17)
219
3.7
4.8
5.3
6.1
35.0
39.1
44.6
46.0
41.1
36.1
34.2
29.3
24.2
33.3
81.2
102.1
14
22
Dabur India
BUY
192
195
337
5.6
9.2
10.8
13.1
5.3
6.2
7.5
36.5
30.9
25.6
29.9
25.3
20.8
10.3
33.5
30.9
23
Radico Khaitan
BUY
113
136
21
15
0.3
0.9
1.0
1.2
6.8
7.6
8.8
16.6
14.9
12.8
10.9
9.9
8.9
1.7
11.6
11.3
18
Godrej Consumer
HOLD
807
789
(2)
275
4.6
7.6
9.0
10.7
22.9
26.3
31.6
35.2
30.7
25.6
24.6
21.2
17.6
6.2
20.2
20.4
(0)
HUL
HOLD
624
592
(5)
1,350
22.6
35.5
38.2
42.7
16.4
17.6
19.7
38.0
35.4
31.6
29.7
27.0
23.5
40.7
115.0
140.3
ITC
BUY
331
397
20
2,635
44.1
11.0
12.8
15.3
30.0
25.8
21.6
21.5
18.4
15.2
8.8
33.9
43.2
(1)
Jyothy Labs
BUY
180
240
33
33
0.5
1.1
1.7
1.9
6.0
9.6
10.4
30.0
18.7
17.2
23.9
19.2
13.9
3.2
16.9
7.6
(4)
Marico
HOLD
249
232
(7)
161
2.7
5.2
5.3
6.2
8.1
8.1
9.7
30.9
30.6
25.8
21.8
19.8
16.3
8.7
28.6
30.0
26
Nestle India
HOLD
4,998
4,430
(11)
482
8.1
11.2
11.4
14.2
42.5
42.4
33.8
25.1
25.0
20.3
16.2
38.2
39.5
(1)
Titan Company
BUY
361
420
16
320
5.4
7.6
9.2
12.4
8.6
10.4
14.0
42.1
34.8
25.8
33.6
27.7
19.5
9.9
28.5
32.0
13
60
TBZ
BUY
209
258
24
14
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.1
8.3
12.2
17.2
25.3
17.1
12.1
14.8
11.6
7.9
2.7
16.0
10.9
16
17
United Spirits
SELL
2,491
2,203
(12)
362
6.1
0.5
2.6
5.7
3.4
18.1
39.5
730.8 137.9
63.1
38.7
32.6
23.6
4.3
3.1
Tilaknagar Ind
BUY
59
71
21
0.1
0.6
0.7
1.1
4.8
6.0
8.6
12.3
9.7
6.9
8.6
7.9
6.6
1.1
11.4
11.1
21
V- Mart
BUY
390
366
(6)
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.5
14.0
21.8
28.7
27.8
17.9
13.6
13.8
9.5
7.4
3.3
18.7
25.7
27
188
87
7.1 (12)
(1)
INDUSTRIALS
ABB
HOLD
1,137
706
(38)
241
4.0
1.8
2.9
4.3
8.3
13.6
20.2
136.2
83.5
56.4
51.9
39.0
30.1
8.5
10.1
15.8
21
BGR
HOLD
221
125
(43)
16
0.3
1.5
1.7
2.0
20.2
23.9
27.8
11.0
9.2
7.9
7.1
5.9
5.2
1.1
12.7
11.4
76
BHEL
BUY
261
315
21
639
10.7
32.3
34.4
38.6
13.2
14.0
15.8
19.8
18.6
16.6
11.5
11.8
8.7
1.8
9.9
10.1
46
Crompton Greaves
BUY
205
203
(1)
129
2.2
2.4
6.0
7.6
3.9
9.5
12.0
52.8
21.6
17.1
21.6
12.8
10.2
2.6
11.8
11.3
127
Cummins India
BUY
687
811
18
191
3.2
6.2
7.2
9.0
22.3
26.0
32.5
30.8
26.4
21.2
27.1
24.1
19.0
6.9
25.0
25.5
55
Havells India
HOLD
1,193
1,043
(13)
149
2.5
4.5
6.2
7.4
35.7
49.5
58.9
33.4
24.1
20.3
22.6
22.7
22.1
7.3
33.2
32.3
13
64
BUY
1,752
1,810
1,626
27.2
45.7
55.3
68.8
49.3
59.6
74.2
35.6
29.4
23.6
25.5
21.8
18.3
4.3
14.1
14.2
89
Siemens
BUY
988
892
(10)
352
5.9
5.1
7.7
10.5
14.2
21.5
29.5
69.6
45.9
33.5
36.4
25.2
18.2
7.6
16.5
23.9
82
KEC
HOLD
132
90
(32)
34
0.6
0.7
1.7
2.3
3.3
6.5
9.0
40.1
20.5
14.7
10.3
8.0
6.7
2.6
12.8
17.1
12
312
Voltas
BUY
218
242
11
72
1.2
2.2
3.2
4.5
6.8
9.7
13.4
32.2
22.5
16.2
27.2
20.1
14.0
3.6
16.1
14.7
175
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
HCL Tech
HOLD
1,466
1500
1,026
17.2
60.1
69.2
77.7
85.7
98.6 110.6
17.1
14.9
13.3
11.1
9.4
8.0
4.0
30.3
29.2
91
Hexaware Tech
SELL
152
125
(18)
46
0.8
3.8
3.5
4.1
12.8
11.8
11.9
12.8
11.0
7.6
8.1
6.9
2.9
22.9
22.6
74
Infosys Ltd.
BUY
3,211
3,900
21
1,844
16.9
15.2
13.1
11.6
9.8
8.1
3.3
23.4
22.9
34
KPIT
BUY
170
210
23
33
12.9
10.7
8.9
8.1
6.8
5.3
2.0
19.1
24.5
42
2.5
3.0
3.6
13.8
15.9
19.1
MphasiS
BUY
426
510
20
89
1.5
3.5
8.2
9.7
14.7
38.8
46.1
29.0
11.0
9.2
18.9
8.1
6.8
1.6
15.4
12.1
15
Persistent Sys
BUY
1,087
1,400
29
43
0.7
2.5
3.2
4.0
62.3
80.2
98.9
17.4
13.5
11.0
10.1
7.9
6.4
3.0
21.9
26.8
125
24.9
21.4
18.3
18.3
15.8
13.3
6.6
30.9
36.6
14
62
19.1
15.5
13.3
11.5
9.5
8.2
4.2
30.7
35.3
11
112
17.5
14.9
13.3
13.5
10.9
9.5
3.3
22.3
24.4
12
62
TCS
BUY
2,418
2,550
4,736
Tech Mahindra
BUY
2,113
2,350
11
495
8.3
25.8
31.9
Wipro
HOLD
556
585
1,371
22.9
78.4
92.0 103.1
31.8
37.4
41.9
contd...
4 July 2014 | 24
Valuation Guide
Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY15
FY15
Absolute (%)
1m
12m
39
MEDIA
Den Networks
BUY
237
235
(1)
42
0.7
0.8
1.5
2.4
3.4
8.3
13.4
68.8
28.4
17.8
12.3
8.6
5.4
2.1
7.4
7.7
Dish TV India
BUY
61
70
14
65
1.1
(0.9)
1.3
3.8
(2.0)
1.3
3.6
(31.1)
49.0
17.1
13.5
9.0
7.1
(36.0)
nm
16.5
18
(1)
Hathway Cable
BUY
318
360
13
48
0.8
0.14
1.35
2.23
1.0
9.5
15.6
318.0
33.7
20.4
15.3
9.1
6.6
3.6
10.0
13.7
15
BUY
1,486
1,650
11
104
1.7
1.21
1.32
2.16
17.2
18.8
30.7
86.2
78.9
48.3
68.6
61.5
35.4
16.1
20.4
20.6
13
134
Sun TV Network
BUY
463
495
182
3.1
7.5
9.3
10.7
19.2
23.6
27.2
24.2
19.6
17.0
15.2
12.5
10.8
5.1
25.9
33.6
22
Zee Ent
HOLD
296
270
(9)
285
4.8
8.9
10.4
11.4
9.2
10.8
11.8
32.1
27.3
25.1
23.2
21.6
19.4
5.1
18.7
20.3
22
Hindalco Industries
HOLD
174
133
(24)
359
6.0
25.7
29.1
28.1
12.5
14.1
13.6
14.0
12.3
12.8
10.6
9.0
7.3
0.9
7.1
5.2
12
76
Hindustan Zinc
BUY
168
182
709
11.9
69.7
70.4
74.8
16.5
16.7
17.7
10.2
10.1
9.5
6.5
5.7
4.7
1.7
17.6
42.9
(0)
65
JSW Steel
HOLD
1,289
1,318
312
5.2
21.6
23.3
31.1
89.6
96.3 128.5
14.4
13.4
10.0
7.1
6.9
5.9
1.4
10.5
8.0
111
SAIL
HOLD
96
85
(11)
395
6.6
16.6
26.8
33.1
4.0
6.5
8.0
23.9
14.8
11.9
15.1
11.4
9.2
0.9
6.1
4.5
92
TATA Steel
BUY
539
535
(1)
524
8.8
36.2
38.9
57.3
37.3
40.0
59.0
14.5
13.5
9.1
7.4
7.4
6.6
1.2
9.1
5.7
100
NMDC
HOLD
185
176
(5)
735
12.3
63.7
66.9
74.3
16.1
16.9
18.7
11.5
11.0
9.9
7.0
6.7
6.0
2.2
21.3
40.9
85
Nalco
BUY
59
56
(6)
153
2.6
6.9
6.5
7.5
2.7
2.5
2.9
22.1
23.5
20.2
10.7
10.3
8.6
1.2
5.3
3.8
11
102
BPCL
BUY
600
700
17
434
7.3
36.5
30.0
35.0
55.7
45.7
53.3
10.8
13.1
11.2
6.5
6.7
6.3
1.8
13.8
12.2
68
Cairn India
HOLD
361
350
(3)
689
65.9
57.8
60.9
5.5
6.3
5.9
4.9
5.1
4.4
1.1
21.9
19.8
25
Essar Oil
HOLD
107
82
(23)
155
2.6
1.3
16.7
13.8
0.9
11.5
9.5
123.3
9.3
11.2
6.7
7.1
6.7
3.8
40.8
12.8
12
63
GAIL India
HOLD
459
405
(12)
582
9.7
41.4
40.5
44.7
32.6
31.9
35.2
14.1
14.4
13.0
9.8
9.1
8.1
2.0
13.7
13.3
20
39
BUY
93
108
17
52
0.9
4.2
4.9
5.5
7.4
8.8
9.7
12.4
10.5
9.5
6.3
5.7
5.3
1.4
13.3
16.6
21
64
HPCL
BUY
414
460
11
140
2.3
14.4
10.4
14.9
42.3
30.6
44.0
9.8
13.5
9.4
8.4
7.6
6.5
0.9
5.5
2.2
(2)
69
BUY
343
445
30
832
13.9
57.8
62.3
90.7
24.4
26.3
38.3
14.0
13.0
9.0
10.5
8.1
5.8
1.1
8.7
6.3
(5)
52
Indraprastha Gas
BUY
365
450
23
51
0.9
3.6
3.8
4.2
25.7
27.4
29.8
14.2
13.3
12.3
6.6
6.2
5.5
2.5
19.1
22.1
10
30
MRPL
SELL
73
57
(21)
127
2.1
6.0
5.0
11.4
3.4
2.9
6.5
21.2
25.2
11.1
11.2
10.3
6.5
1.7
6.8
6.5
99
Oil India
BUY
591
900
52
355
5.9
28.8
32.1
50.7
48.0
53.3
84.4
12.3
11.1
7.0
8.4
6.8
4.2
1.6
14.2
11.3
ONGC
BUY
418
600
43
3,577
Petronet LNG
BUY
171
170
(1)
129
Reliance Industries
HOLD
1,007
950
(6)
3,254
Cipla
HOLD
448
407
(9)
359
Dr Reddy's
BUY
2,639
2,994
13
Lupin
BUY
1,082
1112
Sun Pharma
BUY
707
783
11
31.7
39.1
48.2
13.2
10.7
8.7
7.9
6.3
5.0
2.4
18.9
23.0
34
7.8
9.5
10.8
10.3
18.1
15.9
16.6
9.9
8.4
8.9
2.3
14.5
15.5
41
69.6
79.6
85.7
14.5
12.6
11.7
12.2
11.7
11.1
1.3
11.5
7.1
(8)
18
13.7
19.2
24.6
32.6
23.3
18.2
20.0
15.3
12.1
3.1
14.2
12.0
15
13
2.2
7.1
8.1
PHARMACEUTICALS
6.0
11.0
15.5
19.8
449
7.5
20.8
23.2
28.2
21.5
19.4
15.9
14.5
12.9
10.5
4.5
23.0
18.9
13
19
485
8.1
17.8
22.7
24.9
39.7
50.8
55.6
27.3
21.3
19.5
16.1
13.4
11.9
5.7
29.8
26.6
18
30
1,464
24.5
57.2
63.0
74.8
27.6
30.4
36.1
25.6
23.2
19.6
19.5
16.5
13.2
6.4
27.5
29.2
17
39
Aurobindo
HOLD
768
638
(17)
224
3.7
11.7
13.8
15.5
46.8
47.2
53.2
16.4
16.3
14.4
11.5
10.9
9.6
4.5
31.4
16.7
23
316
Cadila Health
BUY
1,119
1243
11
229
3.8
8.8
10.7
14.1
41.7
52.5
69.1
26.8
21.3
16.2
19.4
15.3
11.9
5.4
26.6
17.6
22
45
Strides
BUY
671
709
40
0.7
0.9
2.1
2.8
16.4
36.2
47.4
41.0
18.6
14.2
17.8
14.0
10.6
3.0
19.6
12.2
27
77
Glenmark
BUY
608
663
165
2.8
7.3
10.0
12.6
27.4
35.7
47.0
22.2
17.0
12.9
14.4
11.4
8.9
4.2
25.9
23.3
12
Biocon
BUY
544
477
(12)
109
1.8
4.1
5.2
6.6
20.4
26.2
32.8
26.6
20.8
16.6
16.6
13.1
10.5
3.2
16.4
9.7
23
98
Unichem
BUY
239
230
(4)
22
0.4
0.9
1.5
1.9
11.8
16.1
20.9
20.3
14.9
11.4
12.0
9.3
7.3
2.4
16.1
14.2
21
50
1,279
1,283
249
4.2
10.1
11.5
13.9
51.7
58.7
71.3
24.7
21.8
17.9
18.7
15.7
12.5
3.2
14.5
20.9
77
HOLD
GE Shipping
HOLD
367
372
55
0.9
4.6
5.7
7.4
30.8
38.1
48.9
11.9
9.6
7.5
5.8
5.1
4.4
0.8
6.8
7.6
74
BUY
270
232
(14)
560
9.4
20.1
21.5
26.9
9.6
10.3
12.9
28.1
26.2
20.9
23.0
17.8
14.8
5.4
20.1
16.5
13
81
Gujarat Pipavav
HOLD
119
81
(32)
58
1.0
1.8
2.1
2.3
3.6
4.4
4.8
32.8
27.3
25.0
22.7
20.1
16.4
3.9
14.3
13.9
(2)
164
contd...
4 July 2014 | 25
Valuation Guide
Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
FY15
FY16
6.5
6.7
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY15
7.1
39.2
42.6
64.8
18.2
16.7
11.0
11.6
8.7
6.5
13.8
12.6
13.3
11.4
12.5
11.8
9.6
9.5
9.2
57.6
8.6
9.7
11.0
16.3
14.4
12.8
11.8
10.9
Absolute (%)
FY15
FY15
1m
12m
1.6
9.6
7.2
18
108
1.4
11.1
7.8
(4)
10
9.9
1.9
13.2
7.5
12
30
UTILITIES
CESC
HOLD
714
501
(30)
89
NTPC
HOLD
157
141
(10)
1,297
1.5
Power Grid
BUY
141
152
735
12.3
45.0
50.9
PTC India
BUY
97
125
29
29
0.5
3.6
2.7
3.7
8.5
5.9
8.7
11.4
16.3
11.1
3.4
5.1
1.1
0.3
6.7
10.2
11
105
Tata Power
BUY
107
90
(16)
289
4.8
10.4
16.9
17.9
4.4
6.2
6.6
24.5
17.1
16.1
8.2
6.9
6.4
1.8
10.6
10.8
34
Coal India
BUY
396
442
12
2,502
23.9
28.1
33.3
16.6
14.1
11.9
12.5
10.4
7.8
5.1
36.3
32.6
33
Supreme Industries
BUY
550
553
70
1.2
2.9
3.6
4.3
22.8
28.1
33.5
24.1
19.5
16.4
12.7
10.6
9.3
4.2
31.5
31.9
65
Cera Sanitaryware
BUY
1,297
863
(33)
16
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
41.6
55.1
66.4
31.2
23.5
19.5
18.6
14.4
12.0
5.8
27.5
32.2
(7)
163
Kajaria Ceramics
BUY
545
417
(23)
41
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
15.6
21.3
27.8
34.9
25.5
19.6
15.5
12.3
9.6
6.7
26.4
30.2
(6)
133
Finolex Industries
BUY
288
340
18
36
0.6
1.7
2.4
2.8
13.7
19.4
22.7
21.0
14.9
12.7
11.5
8.9
7.7
4.0
28.5
24.5
12
123
HOLD
732
490
(33)
41
0.7
0.8
1.1
1.6
14.0
20.4
28.8
52.1
35.8
25.4
26.1
20.9
16.0
9.9
31.3
37.2
22
221
Company
Reco
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
OTHERS
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
FY14
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR)
FY14
FY15
PE (x)
FY16
FY15
FY15
FY15
Absolute (%)
1m
12m
FINANCIALS
Axis Bank
HOLD
1,926
2,200
14
908
15.2
62.2
71.4
81.6
14.6
12.7
11.1
0.4
0.5
2.1
17.2
1.7
51
Bank of Baroda
BUY
876
1,007
15
376
6.3
45.4
50.6
58.9
8.3
7.5
6.4
1.5
1.8
1.6
1.1
13.3
0.7
61
Bank of India
HOLD
304
268
(12)
195
3.3
27.3
34.1
38.7
7.2
5.7
5.0
3.2
3.2
3.1
0.8
10.8
0.6
(4)
38
Canara Bank
HOLD
447
315
(30)
206
3.5
24.4
33.3
42.2
HDFC
HOLD
1,008
904
(10)
1580
26.4
54.4
63.4
76.5
HDFC Bank
BUY
837
780
(7)
2015
33.7
ICICI Bank
BUY
1,454
1,575
1681
28.1
IndusInd Bank
BUY
573
550
(4)
302
5.0
14.1
18.0
22.4
Kotak Mahindra
HOLD
891
806
(10)
687
11.5
15.3
18.4
PNB
HOLD
991
785
(21)
359
6.0
33.4
43.1
SBI
BUY
2,696
3,045
13
2013
42.4
53.0
60.2
52.9
72.1
91.5
8.5
6.2
4.9
2.0
1.8
1.7
0.8
10.7
0.6
25
34.9
40.6
49.0
28.9
24.8
20.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.0
21.0
2.9
10
18
35.5
44.5
56.5
23.6
18.8
14.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.9
22.4
2.0
29
84.5
95.9 112.1
17.2
15.2
13.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.2
13.7
1.7
(0)
37
26.9
34.5
42.7
21.3
16.6
13.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
2.9
18.4
1.9
23
21.6
20.5
24.6
28.9
43.5
36.2
30.9
1.1
1.4
1.8
5.8
15.8
1.6
28
52.1
10.7
8.3
6.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
1.2
11.4
0.7
59
18.5
13.0
9.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
12.4
0.8
42
Union Bank
HOLD
231
150
(35)
145
2.4
17.0
22.4
26.7
26.9
35.5
42.3
8.6
6.5
5.4
2.3
2.4
2.5
1.0
12.5
0.6
35
YES Bank
BUY
563
653
16
233
3.9
16.2
18.3
21.1
44.9
50.7
58.4
12.5
11.1
9.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
23.1
1.5
(3)
21
BUY
2,176
2,157
(1)
109
1.8
7.2
8.6
10.3
15.1
12.6
10.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.3
19.9
3.2
53
HOLD
406
301
(26)
58
1.0
3.3
4.5
5.4
25.4
31.3
37.9
16.0
13.0
10.7
0.8
1.1
1.3
2.2
19.0
1.9
18
69
Gruh Finance
BUY
198
305
54
71
1.2
1.8
2.3
2.8
9.8
12.6
15.8
20.2
15.8
12.6
4.7
33.6
3.5
73
BUY
324
310
(4)
164
2.7
13.1
16.5
20.3
26.0
32.7
40.3
12.5
9.9
8.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.9
20.2
1.6
(3)
35
M&M Fin.
BUY
274
290
156
2.6
8.9
10.9
13.7
15.8
19.3
24.4
17.4
14.2
11.2
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.6
21.3
3.4 (10)
Manappuram
HOLD
23
24
20
0.3
2.3
1.7
2.1
2.7
2.0
2.4
8.7
11.7
9.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.8
8.0
Muthoot Finance
BUY
189
232
23
75
1.3
7.8
9.1
10.8
21.0
22.9
27.2
9.0
8.3
7.0
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.6
PFC
HOLD
319
338
421
7.1
54.2
63.8
72.9
41.0
49.5
56.4
7.8
6.4
5.7
0.5
1.0
1.0
1.3
HOLD
473
391
(17)
29
0.5
1.1
1.5
1.8
17.7
24.4
29.6
26.7
19.3
16.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
3.4
REC
HOLD
369
374
365
6.1
46.8
54.3
63.3
47.4
56.5
65.6
7.8
6.5
5.6
0.1
0.3
0.5
Shriram Transport
HOLD
936
759
(19)
212
3.6
13.6
15.0
18.0
60.0
66.4
79.4
15.6
14.1
11.8
0.5
0.7
1.5
SKS Microfinance
Hold
276
355
29
35
0.6
0.7
1.6
2.1
6.5
13.1
17.0
42.6
21.0
16.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.6
11
127
18.8
4.1
(7)
94
20.9
3.1
133
19.5
2.6
85
1.5
23.6
3.5
13
86
2.2
16.6
2.9
(2)
38
5.6
19.3
5.1
(8)
155
Events Calendar
Monday
7 Jul
Jul/Aug 2014
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sun
1 Jul
2 Jul
3 Jul
4 Jul
5 Jul
6 Jul
9 Jul
10 Jul
11 Jul
12 Jul
13 Jul
Cera Sanitaryware
Infosys
Unichem Lab
18 Jul
19 Jul
20 Jul
26 Jul
27 Jul
8 Jul
IndusInd Bank
14 Jul
21 Jul
15 Jul
22 Jul
16 Jul
17 Jul
Bajaj Finance
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Bajaj Auto
23 Jul
24 Jul
25 Jul
Biocon
M&M Financial
Colgate Palmolive
31 Jul
1 Aug
2 Aug
3 Aug
8 Aug
9 Aug
10Aug
Exide Ind
28 Jul
4 July 2014 | 26
29 Jul
30 Jul
MphasiS
4 Aug
5 Aug
6 Aug
7 Aug
11 Aug
12 Aug
13 Aug
14 Aug
4 July 2014 | 27
Important Disclaimer:
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