December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala

Decline USA - Emerging

Wiser
Ted Ollikkala
(declineusa.wordpress.com)
Quick Facts

Main Areas: Sustainability, Career Planning

Career Focus: Author, Speaker

Foreward
The writing is on the wall; has been for some time.
People are starting to wake up to the larger picture
and realize that change is imminent, foreseeable, and
imperative for survival. Who’s survival? In a nutshell:
yours. From a global perspective: mankind.
This site is an attempt to disseminate information
that will help you to take appropriate action based
on informed choices and higher wisdom. It also
seeks to balance the naive temptation to fall in with
the ‘doomsday crowd’, the selfish ’survivalists’, the
‘apocalypse prophets’, the ‘miracle scientists’, or any of
the other special interest groups which have formed.
Each one of us wants to feel important; to leave behind a
legacy that will add to the sum total of the human races’
posititive karma. Studying the content of this site is an
excellent beginning.
You are invited to freely contribute ideas, facts, news Ted is an avid photographer with more than 4,040,434
items and opinions to this work in progress; a live all time views on Flickr.com/photos/teducation and
community of free-thinking problem solvers who will contributions to National Wildlife Federation and
prosper into the new renaissance of civilization on the UNESCO Thailand. A former engineer, early childhood
other side of the coming ‘dark ages’. education specialist, nursing assistant, holistic artifacts
dealer and communication skills lecturer, Ted brings a
*** wealth of experiences and a unique perspective to his
writings on spirituality.
Ted Ollikkala has written feature articles and
interviews with Guy Finley, Alan Watt's son (Mark
He currently lives in Singapore and is the owner and
Watts), Progressive rock Artist Paul Whitehead,
main contributing author of declineusa.wordpress.com/
Australian musician Orianthi Panagaris, Christian
mystic Sister Choo Thomas (Heaven is So Real),
Patricia Bragg, Comedian Tim Sample, and others on
TEDUCATION.com (70,374 visitors since 2005). Table of Contents

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December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
The World is slowly going insane -
The Decline of American Civilization 2 The World is slowly going
insane « The Decline of
Something gnawing away at you? 2
American Civilization
Establishing a personal breaking point 4 This can’t be happening. Life is supposed to be good. But all
around us (US) the quality of life is turning downhill. Most
Survival Tips: Learn some basic skill that you can trade with 5 of us have realized this already, watching it from the extreme
comfort of our well manicured lifestyles once thought to be
Austerity Measures for 2008 6 immune from all forms of contamination, bugs, terrorists, and
the neighbor next door.
An Open Letter to all Americans (Dec 27, 2008) 6
Because the change is so gradual, it will only become a shock
When the Grid Fails – Zero Growth 7 to each and every one of us at some point. We don’t all get the
shock at the same time. Some got it years ago, like Al Gore.
This is NOT about Global Warming 8 To say that he was ‘ahead of his time’ is true, but eventually
the USA and the rest of the world will ‘wake up’ and heed the
October 2008 Meltdown. What’s ahead – the next 5 years 8 ominous signs that have been there all along.
The average person doesn’t like to be shaken from his comfort
What a Way to Go: life at the end of empire 9 zone (security blanket/living sofa/two SUV garage) and they
pity people like Al Gore who are out in their underwear
Who Killed the Electric Car – sonypictures documentary 10 running around icebergs. Who needs it? “Such is not for me”,
they cry.
Why would Ted Turner mention the word cannibalism? 10
But like a tsunami, those who don’t see it coming are not the
last to know. They are only the first to be surprised when it hits
The End is coming… but when? 11
without warning, so it seems.
A Guide to Disaster Planning 12 HOW TO BE SANE
It’s not easy to be wise, and waking up early can be a curse if
An Endless Supply of Future Resources 13 the world isn’t ready. Be kind, rewind and don’t rock the boats
of others. Be humble, wake them gently with kind words and
I’ve Seen Sunny Days that I thought would Never End 13 high contrast facts. Separate the wheat from the chaff, and be
persistent.
How the People will react 14
Don’t turn radical. The sky is falling; yes – but don’t rush
Paul Thompson – The Twilight of the Modern World [pdf] 15 out and cut off the chicken’s head. There’s plenty of time.
We cannot rewind, but there’s a renaissance and sense of
What to do when the rioting starts 15 creative challenge to manage those aspects which are under
our control.
11th Hour Action; the movie, the community, free screenings Most of the concern is about currently manifesting conditions
16 that will play out their consequences beyond our lifespan. We
will suffer hardship and misery as one, as will our succeeding
Suicidal thought of the day: generation. As John Lennon so simply proclaimed in 1970,
“Give Peace a Chance” now applies in a broader sense to the
They’ve just discovered more oil – now I can relax! 16 world’s socio-economic and quality of life index regardless of
Americans gear down for $6/gallon gasoline 17 race, religion, or nationalistic affiliation.

What if? Luxury Tax on SUVs 18 For better or worse, we’re in this boat together. Make the most
of what resources we’ve got at our disposal, and leave no stone
Future Car Awareness 18 unturned. A little Zen philosophy can work wonders

EIA at Odds with Peak Oil 19

Peak Oil – Pick a Curve
Volunteering and Creating Jobs
What Would I Do?
Something gnawing away at
21
22
you?
We will go down in history, if there is one; as the generation
23 that squandered it all. America was blessed with abundance
of clean air, rich soil, pristine lakes and rivers, and we were
able to live off the land. No, wait – that wasn’t us! That was
the first generation of Americans; the indigenous people – the

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December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
native Americans, living in harmony with their ancestors and over this the new mobility and kept rolling our money into
the cosmos. new investments. Growing faster than could be supported,
consumer and investment driven greed burst the bubble on
ENTER THE COLONISTS
Black Tusday in 1929 and we had to start all over again. A
‘We’, are the incoming wave of settlers, so-called colonizers, chance to make a fresh start!
arriving from Europe by the boatload from 1584-1776. We
As there’s nothing better than a war to stimulate the economy;
brought with us little technology. In fact, we were quite
luckily one came along (WWII) and soon the American
ignorant of how to live in the New World. Without help
economy was humming along once again. Sure, there were
from our Indian brothers in 1621, there would have been no
resource shortages to cope with, but patriotic spirit was
Thanksgiving. In fact, there would have been no Plymouth
high and people at home banded together like never before.
Colony – we surely would not have survived the winter.
Women supported the munitions industry and planted victory
Once we got a foothold in America, our sponsors back in gardens. Although the war was far from home, our boys were
Europe were experiencing a breakthrough of their own; the over there spilling blood to protect the American Dream.
Industrial Revolution – which was to change the structure and
purpose of society right up to the present time. Eventually, our
sponsors – let’s call them the Ruling Elite, got greedy.
THE INDUSTRIALIZATION OF AMERICA
The indigenous populations of the USA, Central and South
America were literally worked to death and their resources
stolen (cotton, gold, furs, sugar, molasses, tobacco, lumber,
etc.) and shipped to Europe as raw materials for mass
manufacturing, and sent back to the colonies at higher prices.
Tariffs and import taxes were tacked on by the powers that
be and the early corporations such as the East India Company
became rich and ever more powerful.

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch1en/conc1en/
tradewinds.html
Exploitation by greedy corporations and non-democratic
governments reached its culmination when slaves and opium
became the top traded commodities of the world. Of course,
slavery was abolished and opium made illegal. (However, it’s
interesting to note that the top commodities these days are still
drugs, with the addition of arms/weapons).
Now back to the people putting their roots down in
America. We built a democratic government, overcame a
serious internal squabble (The Civil War) and everything
was generally ‘cool’ (uneventful) up until the era of coal-
fueled and steam-powered ships and locomotives gave
way to gasoline powered automobiles circa 1903. http://
www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/cars/carhist.htm
THE FIRST GREAT CRASH AND RECOVERY
A dramatic new era of prosperity overran America, the
‘roaring twenties’. Like a kid in a toy shop – we went ga-ga
http://
historicpelham.blogspot.com/2005_11_01_archive.html
I hope you’re starting to draw parallels at this point. 65
years ago, our present leaders were just growing up. They
have witnessed the dramatic transformation of American
civilization. They have also experienced the effects of war.
They have been living the American Dream from day one.
But the most impressive breakthrough was the post-war
rebuilding of America.
THE BABY BOOM PLAYGROUND
Someday, looking back; this will be recognized as being
the point of no return – when we crossed the threshold
of common sense and committed ourselves to a lifestyle
of unsustainability. Suburbia was born, new and exciting
products were available for consumption, and the American
Dream started all over again. The most highly prized
consumer goods were televisions, refrigerators, and the
ultimate personal transportation machine; the automobile.

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December 18th, 2009
http://www.californiaclassix.com/
archive/61_Lincoln_c232.html
ENTER OIL DEPENDENCE
The temptation to develop, abuse and squander a God-send
of a resource; the ultimate energy source: abundant, cheap,
easy to find, easy to transport; was irresistible, of course.
The benefits would never end, it seemed. Literally overnight,
an entire lifestyle was built on oil-based and oil-powered
products. And continues to grow.
Let’s skip a few decades, shall we… and get to the point. Let’s
see what we got here: Americans have saturated themselves
with suburban homes and personal automobiles to the point
that they have been purchased on credit; people have over-
extended themselves in order to obtain these items. But, come
to think of it – homes are bigger than we need. Cars are too
big too.
Bigger is better. Up-size, sir? Of course. Be a good consumer.
Only $20 a month, sir. I’ll take it…
HICCUPS AND SIDE EFFECTS
Nothing is free, and if it sounds too good to be true, well…
sorry to say that a society totally built on a limited resource is
going to be limited in its growth. Limited by land, limited by
the size of the population craving access to the goodies, limited
by buying power (money). Pressured by its enemies who also
want a fair share of a global resource.
The earth is sick, call a doctor! Erosion, ozone depletion,
irregular weather patterns. Take a pill. The burning of fossil
fuels has poisoned the earth where it came from. Taking
millions of years to form under incompletely understood
circumstances, all it took was a brief period of a couple of
centuries to squander and use it up. But not just use it up; but
ruin the host that created it! Neither man nor the earth will
ever be the same.
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
http://www.raisethehammer.org/index.asp?id=175
My God, what have we done? – to quote my favorite Talking
Heads song.
To learn more about the problem and to become part of the
solution; google for “Peak Oil”. That would be enough to keep
you busy for the rest of your life! Prepare yourself for the
inevitable. Prepare yourself to cope mentally and physically
with living with less. Prepare for shortages, price increases,
rioting, more resource wars, and unbelieving people sitting in
their SUV driving 2 hours a day between their oversized home,
work, and Walmart.
It’s time to wake up, America
Inspired by Matt Savinar
Establishing a personal
breaking point
Everyone has a personal breaking point; “that’s all I can stand,
I won’t take it any more!”. Knowing this limit before external
circumstances arrive and ‘dump a problem on your head’ can
greatly aid in your ability to pro-actively seek out and identify
coping strategies and solutions.
Let’s take an example.
A person’s personal breaking point cannot usually be detected
until the breaking point is very near. We must truly be walking
‘the razor’s edge’ in order to catch a glimpse over the side and
peer down into the consequences. It’s a game of cat and mouse
played with consequences; tagging a series of causes and their
subsequent effects to test if the ice will break or not before one
dares slither across.
This example involves food. At what point does an overweight
person finally make a firm and unwavering commitment
to lose the fat and become a healthier person capable of
sustaining and increasing both physical and mental energy
for a prolonged period (say… a lifetime)? Certain side-effect
benefits in the minds of some are inadvertently used as prime
directives in obtaining their goal (the right thing for the wrong
reason).
A dieter may say that they’re dieting to save money on clothes,
food, or to ‘be like the rest of the myopic beautiful people’ who
haven’t realised that true beauty is on the inside. All of this is
fine and good; but in order to leave a legacy of any merit, to be
a role model for others, and to support a collective mindset of
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December 18th, 2009
survival of the fittest in an environment of decreasing natural
resources – that person should have integrity of value; the
right action for the right reason.
THE MEDICINE MAY TASTE BITTER, BUT IT GETS THE
JOB DONE
Certain friends of mine, Patricia Bragg and the Bragg Healthy
lifestyle* advocate a life-changing regime of permanent
healthy eating to achieve superior health, longevity and super
powers of mind, body, and spirit. While the plan is all spelled
out and easy to understand; and the results documented
in countless cases; it typically is followed by only the most
resolutely determined practitioners.
As it involves a change of habits and getting past commonly
popular misconceptions (such as: fasting is a starvation diet
and not healthy), the lifestyle is a hard sell in a world of
inexpensive, conveniently prepared foods that are chemically
treated and over-processed, which do little more than satisfy
cravings for sugar and ends up poisoning the body with toxins.
Since most people satisfy short-term goals in relation to being
the shortest distance between two points, only a person who
has experienced the near-fatal consequences of a lifetime diet
of processed and chemically treated food is likely to reach any
type of ‘food breaking point’, which usually ranks quite low
in personal priority. Why bother taking any extra effort to eat
‘right’, they say.
Now take a scenario in which global economics, genetic
tampering of organic lifeforms, and increased transportation
costs have combined to make the food you eat (i) scarce (ii)
unhealthy – causing allergies, impotence, and disease, (iii)
extremely expensive; let’s say about 45% of your family’s
budget.
THE ALTERNATIVE
If there were a low-cost alternative that were safe, affordable,
and enabled a person (you) to have increased life expectancy,
diminished or cured common ailments as headaches, joint
pain, and lethargy – and supported the original ecosystem
established by Mother Nature over millions of years; would
you take it?
What if this new way of food consumption also supported
communal farming, non-dependency of imports from
third-party nations (possibly hostile), ownership of basic
commodities, and environmental friendliness. Would you
take it?
How many Americans are extreme candidates for such a
program?
Obesity in proliferating in the United States: 3.8 million
people are over 300 pounds, over 400,000 people (mostly
males) carry over 400 pounds and the average adult female
weighs an unprecedented 163 pounds!*
Why not take it now? What are you waiting for…. to reach your
breaking point?
(i) The Bragg Healthy Lifestyle. Source: bragg.com
(ii) Obesity Statistics: Number of Obese Americans Increasing
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Survival Tips: Learn some
basic skill that you can trade
with
This is a great exchange of ideas on what to expect and
practical means of coping. Not for the feint of heart (pun
intended).
“Expect to see a continuance of inflation at around 15-20% per
year on those things that really matter like food prices, fuel
prices and health insurance.
Expect to see housing prices drop to reflect actual value, not
status value.
Expect to see austentatious McMansions sit on the market
waiting for buyers at nearly any price.
Expect the utilities costs of heating and cooling large,
wasteful huge carbon foot print houses and businesses to
play a significant role in changing what people perceive as
desireable.
Expect to see solo occupant commuting become an
increasingly less attractive option for many people in many
areas. Thus suburbia and the commuter jobs that support it
will likely become increasingly less attractive or economically
viable, even with drastic home price reductions.
Expect precious metals such as gold to be vastly overrated in
their ability to weather a true economic downturn.
Expect to see food prices more accurately reflect
transportation and labor costs.
Expect small scale local organic farming to once again become
a desireable profession.
Expect to see widespread cuts in jobs that are largely make-
busy corporate type work.
Expect to see palpable evidence that a country with no serious
industrial capabilities cannot sustain itself as a “service
economy”.
Learn how to really get along with your neighbors in a
manner that’s beneficial to everyone. (Do you even know your
neighbors?)
Learn to grow your own food, or at least a significant portion
of it.
Learn a trade skill that has true persistant need in any
economy.
Learn to make your own bread.
Learn to can your own produce.
Learn to raise chickens to supply your family with eggs and
meat.
Learn how to fix and maintain bicycles and motorbikes and
scooters.
Learn how to live without “services” to perform everything for
you from fixing your bagel and coffee in the morning to fixing
your method of transportation.
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December 18th, 2009
Learn how to live on vastly less resources. Water, Electricity,
Gas, Oil, etc.
Learn how to do your own research, and then share what you
learn with others.”
Austerity Measures for 2008
When the word ‘austerity‘ (wikipedia) is mentioned, people
think back to the Great Depression and a temporary reduced
standard of living brought on by economic consequences. They
also think of Wartime Austerity; rationing, victory gardens,
and saving rubber, nylon, etc.
In 2008 the New Austerity (Time Magazine) basically means
having a tighter budget due to recent increases in the price of
gasoline and food. Middle class families are feeling it. Lean
times are ahead, tighten your belt, the new minimalism, less
is more – that kind of stuff is in store, for the long term.
How long? Until the earth is healed. Until people stop
squabbling over resources and learn to be more efficient and
share. Until consumption balances supply, like back in the old
days.
How old? Before the industrial revolution; that’s how long
it’s been since humankind truly lived in harmony with his
surroundings.
Not many people live like that these days, but there surely is a
growing movement in this direction.
Here are some ideas culled from various sources regarding
possible austerity measures to help anyone cut costs, not only
to save money today; but to safeguard the future of society and
the balance of nature while she starts to heal from centuries
of abuse.
1. Eliminate frills from your weekly grocery shopping
2. Shop at a budget supermarket and/or buy generic
3. Combine errands (no more driving to the 7-11 for a pack
of cigarettes)
4. Vacation close to home or vacation at home.
5. Leave one car in the garage
6. Shop at the Salvation Army or local Goodwill Store
7. Eat out less often
8. Stop being a ‘good consumer’ (you don’t really need any
more junk, do you?)
9. Buy local produce
10. Learn how to cook
11. Start a backyard garden
12. Borrow how-to books and novels from the library
13. Watch video of your choice (active) on the Internet
instead of on the televsision (passive)
14. Don’t buy a new television set (especially a flat screen
plasma home entertainment system)
15. Act as if your nation is in wartime; make do with what
you have – mend and repair
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
16. Dust off the bicycle in the garage and use it for short trips
17. Buy a scooter or Vespa for in-town travel
18. Pay off your debts
19. Get your money out of the stock market
20. Don’t buy what you can’t afford
21. Buy what you need, not what you want
22. Take up a hobby that pays
23. Simplify, simplify, simplify!
24. Stop competing with the Jones’ – cooperation will get
you further
25. Learn to be more self-sufficient
26. Prepare an alternate way to heat your home
More ideas:
KNOW SOME MORE? PLEASE COMMENT
An Open Letter to all
Americans (Dec 27, 2008)
Dear Fellow Americans
The mass media (talking heads on the television) would try to
sugar-coat the depressing news they have to deliver night after
night.
They would also have us subscribe to the naive notion: “Obama
will fix it.”
This is very misleading. The media want to be able to say
“The worst is over” / “The housing market is hitting bottom” /
“Things will turn around soon”. You will hear these things
every day in the newspaper and on television.
However, there is a much bigger picture: the facts are out
there, and some very smart analysts, and members of global
think tanks are not afraid to tell it like it is.
Basically (and realistically) these think-tanks are able to
project very reliable trends (in black & white). They will tell
(sometimes for a fee) what can be expected so that people
will have a chance to plan ahead and not be caught unaware,
or make poor life choices (in employment, major purchases,
investments, or choice of community).
The popular myth that the mass media is trying to push
now (as is the government) is that more stimulus packages
(bailouts) are the solution. They are not. Basic economics
clearly states that one cannot borrow forever and claim that to
be profit. Anyways, whoever is getting the bailout money (and
the U.S. Government is not disclosing this information) – is
not using it as intended. The banks who get it are not lending
it out to customers.
You can plan for a US default on their loans, and a
very likely devaluation of the dollar likely in summer
2009. This would be followed by the issuance of a new
monetary system in the USA, to be called the Amero.
It’s already being readied: http://english.pravda.ru/world/
americas/02-12-2008/106779-amero-0
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December 18th, 2009
Read your Wall Street Journal & New York Times. They won’t
sugar-coat the bad news. Here is one stand-up example I can
pass on to you so that you and your family and friends can
be prepared (for the worse). If it never gets as bad as they
claim, no harm done – right? Better over-prepared (at least
in mindset, knowing mentally what to anticipate) than under-
prepared.
Here is the important link:
The bottom line, from my understanding – is not to expect
recovery (growth) for between 3 and 10 years. A lot may
happen in between as well (social rioting, more joblessness,
currency failure, army activity in the homeland, energy
shortages, etc.). Just keep your eyes open.
Cheers and not cheers
When the Grid Fails – Zero
Growth
by Ted Ollikkala
Sunday, 26 October 2008
THE END OF STOCKS, CASH, AND CREDIT
What will happen when the recession firmly kicks in, and
businesses that cannot expand their growth and/or make
increasing long-term profits see their stock worthless (stock
has no intrinsic value anyways, it’s just a piece of paper) as
there will be no investors willing to fund a company showing
no promise of a return on their capital.
The stock market is indeed doing just that; ‘cleaning house’
in the NYSE slide that precipitated the Emergency Economic
Stabilization Act of 2008, enactedon 3 October 2008.
Do we realize that it will be pointless in the future to buy stocks
or speculate in all but a few companies that provide nationally
or internationally essential commodities?
CLEANING HOUSE / CLEARING THE WAY FOR A NEW
ECONOMIC MODEL
Many businesses (including banks), due to greed,
overextension, risky credit or unsound business practice are
ceasing to exist. Many consumer businesses, including the
neighborhood Hallmark Store, Cake Shop, and Baby Boutique
are also folding but for different reasons, that is by virtue that
they were founded on a principle of providing non-essential
services and/or products which were easily overlooked in
times of prosperity.
Consumers with expendable income used to treat themselves
regularly to items that were intended to make life more
convenient, or more sophisticated, or just to keep up with
technology (planned obsolescence). Trading in your car for the
latest model every several years was one such mentality. The
same goes with Blackberries, High Definition Television, and
replacing VHS with DVD.
GET READY FOR A PARADIGM CHANGE
When cash is tight, salaries are cut, employees are laid off,
and consumers are forced into taking austerity measures, such
as being frugal in their purchases, repairing and recycling
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
instead of replacing – this will hit those businesses and even
entire suburban shopping malls which represent the iconic
American Dream. It also hits automakers and multinational
corporations.
Technology is also going to take a hit. Those gratifying
devices and electronic playthings will fall by the wayside
when putting food in your mouth and getting to work become
the order of the day. Development of essential technology
should be focused on solving the enormous energy and
environmental catastrophes that threaten extinction of life on
earth (including humans).
Barack Obama:
“The engine of economic growth for the past 20 years
is not going to be there for the next 20. That was
consumer spending. Basically, we turbocharged this
economy based on cheap credit.” But the days of
easy credit are over, Obama said, “because there is
too much deleveraging taking place, too much debt.”
A new economic turbocharger is going to have to
be found, and “there is no better potential driver
that pervades all aspects of our economy than a
new energy economy … That’s going to be my No. 1
priority when I get into office.” (source)
EMBRACING SUSTAINABILITY, LIVING WITHIN YOUR
MEANS
The name of the new game in town will be sustainable
development.
Sustainable development is a pattern of resource use
that aims to meet human needs while preserving the
environment so that these needs can be met not only
in the present, but in the indefinite future. (Wikipedia)
It implies controlled and limited growth, and even no growth
at all. An analogy would be the average Joe in the USA who
lives paycheck to paycheck, who cannot and does not have any
money to invest, and who feeds his appetite for consumerism
on credit.
Average Joe the Baby Boomer has been fooled into thinking
that the equity in his home during the housing boom added
to his net worth, but now guess what? The market giveth and
the market taketh away. And it has taken away his rainy day
money and retirement funds with the severe losses suffered by
401K plans, once again courtesy of recent Wall St. action.
LOCALIZED COMMUNITIES WILL BE THE KEY TO
SURVIVAL
No more credit. No more equity. Living hand to mouth and
simply getting through the month when the cash (if there is
any) runs out will become the norm. And it will be done on a
localized system of bartering and ‘doing favors’.
America will survive, but there will be many changes. For one,
the people must learn to co-exist and cooperate with their
neighbors and value the various skills that are represented in
their community.
The government does not have the resources to prop up
every person, business, bank, insurance company, hospital,
auto dealership, school, town, police force, etc. as well
as maintaining the complex set of public utilities such as
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December 18th, 2009
electricity, water, sewage, and rubbish removal. There’s also
the transportation infrastructure to worry about; road and
bridge repair.
When food cannot be delivered outside of a several hundred
mile radius for whatever reason; unavailability of fuel
(gasoline), non-acceptance of letters of credit which guarantee
delivery of goods, or non-operation of food companies – it
will be the farmer’s markets that sustain the vast majority
of Americans. Smart towns should allocate public land for
public vegetable gardens and support local economies and
convenient bartering of services.
DOWNSIZING
All of our lives we have been taught that infinite upsizing will
make us happy and satiate our desires. Now it’s time to go back
to the frugal virtues learned from the Great Depression of 1929
and the austerity measures of World War II for one reason and
one reason only.
Do not blame the economy, do not blame energy prices;
they are mere symptoms of a raging disease, the systematic
and controlled rape of our planet. The one reason is over-
population; the earth is not big enough to sustain 6.7 billion
people who live in segregated socio-political countries.
Should worse comes to worse and humanity is unable to band
together and cooperate it will be too late when the earth cleans
its house.
This is NOT about Global
Warming
For you environmentalists (mentalists of the environment)
who may be reading this blog, I have a few words of advice:
Think out of the picture. Yes, global warming is part of the
picture – but how about the rest? As we all know, the world is
an intricate system of inter-related micro and macro-cosms.
Thanks for continuing to plug away in your niche. Without
your help in sending out the warnings and full-time efforts
at influencing political leaders to mandate forced changes
in energy consumption to reduce our individual carbon
footprints, our job of warning the USA and the world about the
coming decline of civilization would be much harder.
OTHER SYSTEMS IN DECLINE
A nudge over here in the environmental sector will cause
ripples over there, and so on and so on. The chain reaction
effect cannot be disputed. So what are these other ‘cosms’ and
why should we be concerned?
I am no expert in economics or politics (nor do I want to
be), and I will rely on specialists in those fields for advice;
but it is not necessary to be an expert to make sense of the
overall picture and identify appropriate steps of preventive
and corrective action.
• banking
• real estate
• use and price of petroleum products
• quality of food supplies
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
• health and disease immunity
• social security payments
• access to clean water in America
• price of basic commodities
• racial harmony
• religious tolerance
• class structure (rich vs. poor gap)
• and more…
We need to familiarize ourselves with the positive feedback
loops that have kept these systems stable up to this point
in time, calculate the likely ‘triggering circumstances’ that
will eventually throw each system into a degenerative cycle,
and identify coping mechanisms and logical, effective, and
permanent (not temporary fixes, patches) solutions even in
the face of being deemed unpopular or likely to be widely
resisted.
Once the urgency of the overall situation (the decline of the
American and Global way of life) is firmly grasped and no
longer in denial, the point of critical mass to overcome (i)
hesitancy and (ii) the selfish behavior of individuals, family,
community, and nations – will be achieved.
October 2008 Meltdown.
What’s ahead – the next 5
years
Trickle down Economics
What goes on in Washington, Wall Street, and behind closed
doors in the Halls of Europe will be affecting the average
American in just a few short weeks. Be prepared and do the
needful, as they say in India!
Are you grasping the scale of the October 2008 economic
crisis? Once the damage takes its toll (the kitchen is still
burning), most experts agree that it will take about 5 years
for the economy to show stable signs of recovery. We’re in for
some big waves in shallow water lined with sharp rocks.
Lifestyle changes are in store for the following groups of
people: hockey moms, Joe Six-Packs, Red Sox fans and
small business owners (thanks Sarah Palin). Your life will be
influenced by following ten factors:
1. Banks are not lending anymore and if they do, even people
with good credit are not being approved for loans.
2. Expendable income (excess cash) will dry up for the average
person. People will have to live within their own means, i.e.
– without credit, paying cash for everything or bartering.
Non-essentials and luxury goods will have no market; no one
will buy them because they will be focused on managing the
essentials (housing, food, heat, transportation).
3. The jobless rate is likely to go as high as 10% (currently it
is 6%)
4. Thousands of non-essential businesses will declare
bankruptcy and cease to exist.
8
December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
5. Even established businesses will be subject to money
freeze-ups, unable to meet payroll and basic weekly/ What a Way to Go: life at the
monthly operating costs. Lack of cash to fund deliveries end of empire
may cause shortages of essential commodities. In fact, the
state governments of both California and Massachusetts are The independent film-makers are at it again. And they’re
actually facing meltdown and requesting bailout money from doing a bang-up job! Who? Sally Erickson and Tim Bennett.
the Federal Government.
6. Local or Federal government may step in with rationing /
allocation measures to ensure fair distribution of food,
gasoline, home heating oil, etc.
7. People will be forced to accept lower salaries / reduced work
hours (same effect), or be under-employed (note: this does
not mean unemployment) in industries that require unskilled
laborers. In other words, people will have to accept whatever
work is available in their local area.
8. Credit card companies are likely to slap on reduced credit
limits to prevent further borrowing.
9. Housing prices will continue to decline until they reach pre-
bubble levels (another 10-15% from what they are now). We’ve
not seen the bottom yet. Foreclosures will increase as more
mortgage holders will be responsible for making payments on This movie, ‘What a Way to Go: life at the end of
a house that was valued at a rate 30% higher than current empire’ should be seen in every high school classroom in the
market values. USA.

10. Fundamental shift of the American mindset; to accept

hardship and mutual cooperation to get out of this mess. To
do what it takes. The American Dream just got postponed,
although everyone still seeks prosperity in the long run.
References:
Hard Lesson: Americans Tighten Wallets (11 Oct 2008 – ABC
News)
Crisis hits home as consumers curb their spending (6 Oct 2008
– New York Times)
Mall Vacancies Grow as Retailers Pack Up Shop (6 Oct 2008
– The Wall Street Journal)
Fed Orders Emergency Rate Cut of Half a Percent (8 Oct 2008
– Washington Post)
America’s next nightmare: middle-class foreclosures (8 Oct
2008 – Financial Post)
States’ plans face meltdown (10 Oct – The Associated Press)
Ted Ollikkala
Singapore

Community screenings are indeed being organized around the

world as this unique two hour documentary hits hard and hits
deep right where it counts; at the heartstrings of humanity.
“What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire is not
Just Another Eco-tastrophe Movie. It’s a personal,
poetic, and challenging cultural analysis of the mess
Western and rich capitalist societies are in.” source
A middle class white guy comes to grips with Peak Oil,
Climate
Change, Mass Extinction, Population Overshoot and
the demise of the American Lifestyle. source

9
December 18th, 2009
The documentary is in four parts: “Waking on the
train“, “The train and the tracks“, “The locomotive
power“, and “Walkabout“. So, in a well organized
fashion, in just over two hours, the film thoroughly
explores elements of our planetary predicament: how
we got into it, how bad it is, and what our prospects
are for recognizing our collective dilemma before it’s
too late.
One gets the clear sensation of needing to
immediately save our planet for the approximate half
of today’s living species that may still be around in
a few decades. source: Culture Change Letter #159 –
May 20, 2007 Contributed by Jan Lundberg [pdf]
Who Killed the Electric Car
– sonypictures documentary
2006
“It was among the fastest, most efficient production
cars ever built. It ran on electricity, produced no
emissions and catapulted American technology to the
forefront of the automotive industry. The lucky few
who drove it never wanted to give it up. So why did
General Motors crush its fleet of EV1 electric vehicles
in the Arizona desert?” Apple trailers
This is shocking, and almost what you’d expect from our
government being in cahoots with the auto and oil industries.
To think that we could have had ten or twelve years of tried
and true electric car technology starting in 1996. If this isn’t a
cover-up, I don’t know what is! This documentary is about the
birth and death of the electric car.
As the two girls in the promo trailer exclaim;
“I didn’t know about this – did you see it on tv?”
Well, I for one didn’t know about it either – but luckily
a fellow blogger recommended it. Released on the same
weekend in 2006 as ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, this detective
style documentary is especially relevant today, with gas prices
at record highs.
Today we should be able to resurrect the technology and
popularity of a new type of hybrid electric car for a generation
of green commuters and consumers. There are many excellent
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
websites dedicated to promoting the DVD and upcoming
sequel, ‘Who Saved the Electric Car’.
Sony Classic Movie site – includes stereo trailer, and lots of
great interactive Flash tutorials
Paul: Who killed my electric car? (Special to CNN)
Editor’s note: Alexandra Paul is an actress best known for
her four years starring in the television series “Baywatch”.
She has been driving electric vehicles since 1990 and is a
founding member of Plug in America. Paul can be seen in the
documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car?”.
Do something. Own one
Why would Ted Turner
mention the word
cannibalism?
Don’t listen to the bloggers. Don’t listen to OPEC. Or
politicians – especially politicians!
Listen to the big three: American billionaires Ted Turner,
Richard Rainwater and Warren Buffet. These men sit on top
of the world, and watch it with respect to their own interests.
But what would these interests be?
Once a man has accumulated such vast wealth and all of the
material possessions that money could possibly buy – there
are a couple of things that cannot be bought:
1. Good Health
2. Life Extension
3. A Clean Environment for your grandchildren
So why have these men stuck out their necks, risking public
ridicule; to speak out on issues of the future, a future
beyond their reach – dealing with energy, overpopulation,
food shortages, and global warming (they’re all related)…
TED TURNER
10
December 18th, 2009
I think Ted Turner set forth the urgency best, although he
shocked more than a few people, appearing in April 2008 on
the Charlie Rose program (PBS) when he said:
Rose: “What will happen if global warming is not
addressed immediately?”
Turner: “Not doing it will be catastrophic. We’ll be
eight degrees hotter in ten, not ten but 30 or 40 years
and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of
the people will have died and the rest of us will be
cannibals. Civilization will have broken down. The
few people left will be living in a failed state — like
Somalia or Sudan — and living conditions will be
intolerable. The droughts will be so bad there’ll be
no more corn grown. Not doing it is suicide. Just
like dropping bombs on each other, nuclear weapons
is suicide. We’ve got to stop doing the suicidal two
things, which are hanging on to our nuclear weapons
and after that we’ve got to stabilize the population.
When I was born-”
CHARLIE ROSE: “So what’s wrong with the
population?”
TURNER: “We’re too many people. That’s why we
have global warming. We have global warming
because too many people are using too much stuff.
If there were less people, they’d be using less stuff.”
source
Note: At the end of the show, the host – Charlie Rose made the
following comments about guest Ted Turner:
Rose: “You’re a remarkable man..I enjoy your
company. I think the life you’ve lived with passion,
independence, a sense of great, great, and deep
concern about the world we live in is remarkable.”
What Turner said in reply was highlighted by Rose
at the beginning of the hour: “I love this planet. It’s
worth saving. I mean, it’s worth saving.You know, I
know we’re the same people that did the Holocaust,
but we also did the Mona Lisa and Beethoven`s Fifth
Symphony. I mean, there is so much — this world —
we can’t turn it into a cinder. We’ve got to protect it for
ourselves and for our children. And it’s worth fighting
for. And that’s all I’m doing, is trying to fight to help
save humanity.”
Turner even admitted quite candidly:
“It`s been a long time since anybody caught me saying
something stupid.” source
RICHARD RAINWATER
Another prominent billionaire, Richard Rainwater
(wikipedia), in an open letter to Texas newspapers about Peak
Oil: Why Aren’t You Listening? (April 2006) declared:
“In my opinion, the US media have two choices
regarding the Peak Oil issue. To paraphrase Winston
Churchill, you can now have either your honor or the
status quo. If you do nothing regarding Peak Oil, you
will soon have neither the status quo nor your honor.”
source
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
To appease people who may have been put-off by his sudden
urgency, Mr. Rainwater even added a ‘no-kooks clause’:
And he cautions: “It’s not raving. I promise I am not
a kook.” source
WARREN BUFFET
Mr. Buffet is fairly optimistic about the state of affairs, and
to that effect he has begun buying up energy companies and
railroads, which in the future will be critical in moving food
and other essential commodities.
“Whatever that (oil) peak is, whether 5 or 10 yrs,
the world will adjust, and we will think about it.
Adjustments will cause demand to taper off. I don’t
know how much oil is there, but there are lots
of barrels of oil in place. We never recover total
potential. We may have better engineering recovery
in future. It is nothing like an on and off switch. You
may still have enormous political considerations to
get access to avail oil since it so important. There is
nothing you can do over short period of time to wean
world off oil.” source
He was, however – called both ‘crazy’ and ‘a good guy‘ (by no
less than Diane Sawyer) in November 2007 when he testified
before the Senate Finance Committee on taxes.
In spite of this, I suggest you heed the words and actions
of these influential men because (i) they are not political
controlled, (ii) they are highly likely to know something we
don’t, (iii) they have extraordinary visionary powers and
finally; I sincerely believe (iv) they’re trying to help the rest of
us.
Your all crazy if you think peak oil is not real, or that it can
be mitigated in any way. Look at the mayham that just a
short term oil shock can bring, look what it does to prices,
the economy. Now imagine that, never ending……..never………
and every day it got worse, and worse, and worse. How
long before things break down enough to make the LA riots
everywhere……..all the time……it’s over baby…….and there
won’t really be much die off……..it will be more like kill off. The
world of Mad Max awaits………but wait………it gets worse……
all those bikes and cars and trucks they still had…..they will all
wear out………break down…..no more parts……..nobody will
be making anything……a matter of time before everything is
either broken……..or unable to be used through lack of fuel
or power. It may take 500 years……..but mankind will cease
to exist……..thats the true transition……..a transition from a
human dominated planet………..to a no human planet
The End is coming… but
when?
Everyone on the planet knows that the oil will not last forever.
The current American way of life will not last forever either.
What prevents any urgency about finding alternative coping
mechanisms or making preparations for the life adjustments
that will come about by ‘chain reaction’ due to the most volatile
commodity in the history of industrialized society (first it was
wood, then coal, now oil) is the burning question: WHEN?
11
December 18th, 2009
Best estimates these days about a shift in the quality of
living point to serious change or possible collapse of the
system within our lifetime. Older folks, the so-called baby
boomers; now in their 50s will see these manifest within
the current generation. Young adults brought up in the
‘me generation’ will live through more of it, and will suffer
idealogically nearly as much as the baby boomers.
Psychological suffering will be extremely traumatic for both
groups of these people in American society because a total way
of life, everything that these people in the USA were brought
up believing was true; unending growth and unlimited profits
for those with determined drive – will be taken away by
external circumstances. The American Dream will live on
but the means with which to accomplish it will be totally
redefined- and not for the better.
Like a dam which begins leaking, the first impulse is to patch
the cracks and simply plug it. It is assumed that whomever
built the dam, even if it was engineered by people from the
previous generation, knew what they were doing. Dams are
built to last forever, right? And so as the logic goes, with proper
maintenance, they will.
So when the industrial revolution in the 1700s transformed
all societies of the world; and the efficiency of that
new system was proven over and over as initiating a
progressive and enduring cycle of scientific breakthroughs and
economic benefits – no one questioned the foundation upon
which it was built. That foundation required the productive
harnessing of the earth’s resources to provide power for the
engines that would outperform and replace inefficient human
labor.
In the short span of 300 or so years, like a dam that was built
on unstable ground or on an undiscovered earthquake fault,
this system of global industrialization has started showing
signs of severe damage that cannot be permanently patched.
Early small-scale industrialization ran on water power, and
the burning of wood. As the scope of industry expanded, larger
amounts of power were required and those original resources
became limited or insufficient.
Enter coal and oil. Coal burning furnaces, soot, and Mary
Poppins’ chimneys of smoggy London are a thing of the past.
Coal had its problems and still does. But once commercially
available refined petroleum products such as gasoline, oil, and
diesel fuel, etc. became plentiful and more importantly, cheap;
a second generation of machines took root. The new machines
were not efficient, mind you – but they were affordable and
could be mass produced.
Once every house had electricity, consumer items of
convenience such as refrigerators, gas powered stoves,
washing machines, lawn mowers, and personal automobiles
proliferated. Time era is now late depression through WWII.
Further technological innovations such as radio, television,
commercial aviation and calculating computers were just
being invented. The USA produced much of its own oil and the
oceans were explored to discover new sources to ensure that
the dream would remain alive for a long, long time.
Experts both inside and outside of the oil industry have been
telling us for years that eventually the point would be reached
at which oil and petroleum products are consumed faster than
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
they are discovered and produced. And as demand outstrips
supply, of course prices will rise. Consumers at first are able to
absorb this basic increase (they worry foremost about filling
the tank of their automobile and pumping home heating
oil into their furnaces at home), but as the ripple effects
induce increases in the cost of commodities both directly and
indirectly related to oil dependency; their food prices will be
affected as well.
Oil does not even need to run out completely. There can still
be plenty of oil in the ground, but there would be a permanent
energy crisis if that oil cannot be pumped out of the ground
fast enough or it ends up costing more than a gallon of gasoline
to produce a gallon of gasoline.
THE EYE OF THE STORM
One might ask where is the safest place to be when prices
spiral out of reach and international war (World War 3)
breaks out for control over the remaining stockpiles and
production facilities of both food and oil? Two groups who
will always have access to energy sources, military power, and
have leverage enough to barter / trade when the US dollar is
worthless are the very sources of the undermining problems
themselves! They are (i) the oil cartel membership and (ii) first
world governments and their military forces.
These two groups will provide for their soldiers and
production/transportation/research needs as if the world
depended on it. The world will not get a ‘fair shake’, especially
third world countries who remain at the mercy of the mighty
powers that be, but if you want as much security as is likely
to be provided in a worst-case collapse of human civilization;
then be in the employ of government or the oil industry.
Those who adopt survivalist tactics and set up self-sufficient
homes or communities outside of society, while not dependent
on the global economy or demand driven pricing of basic
commodities would still be at the mercy of the armies of the
world, who may resort at some point to confiscating land, gold,
food; or extracting tariffs or taxes based on these commodities
rather than cash. In a sense, this situtation reverts back to
the feudal system.
A Guide to Disaster Planning
MuseLetter #192 / April 2008
by Richard Heinberg
Resilient Communities: A Guide to Disaster Management
Resilience: The ability to recover quickly from illness,
change, or misfortune; buoyancy; the ability to
absorb shocks.
The following is a proposal to help make communities better
able to respond to the coming economic shocks from resource
depletion, beginning with Peak Oil, and perhaps also to shocks
from other causes (such as the ongoing subprime mortgage
and credit collapse). In searching for a name for the strategy,
I have settled on the phrase “Resilient Communities,” which
comes with considerable baggage—useful baggage in this
instance. Once I have described and discussed the proposal,
I will offer some background materials regarding the terms
resilience and resilient communities, mentioning some other
12
December 18th, 2009
projects that have used the same title or that pursue similar
goals.
Making existing petroleum-reliant communities truly
sustainable is a huge task. Virtually every system must be
redesigned—from transport to food, sanitation, health care,
and manufacturing. Some fine efforts are under way in
towns such as Kinsale, Ireland; Totnes, England; Portland,
Oregon; and several cities in northern California to catalog
the needed changes and initiate the transformative process.
The Powerdown Project, Energy Descent Action Plans, and
local Climate Protection initiatives are all important efforts
in this direction. However, even in places that began such
work two or three years ago, actual oil dependence remains
largely unaffected. The transition that is required will take
many years, huge shifts in both private and public investment,
and fundamental changes in public policy at higher levels of
government in order to succeed. Do we have enough time?
Will the investment capital be available? read the entire article
An Endless Supply of Future
Resources
WHEN THE INFRASTRUCTURE DOESN’T FUNCTION ANY
MORE; SIMPLY DISMANTLE AND RE-USE IT
Came across an unusual point of view in my Peak Oil survival
research; actually if you really think about it – it makes a lot
of sense (from In the Wake)
“I like the idea of people dismantling centralized
infrastructure to build useful tools for their own
communities. A lot of post-apocalyptic genre movies
show old factories and stores and gas stations
abandoned and left standing to rust. But that’s not
going to happen, because there is too much useful
stuff in them!” – Aric McBay
If and when the crash occurs and energy is no longer available
(permanently) to power society’s infrastructure; we must
learn how to live ‘in the dark’; without power and lights,
probably running water, etc. We must also learn how to live
among the relics that once supplied convenience and comfort
for our daily lives, most of which we took for granted and never
gave a second thought.
The relics will get “in the way”; taking up valuable space. Some
uses will be obvious (shelter, scavengeable replacement parts)
but others will require some knowledge, skill, and ingenuity to
make practical uses of these ‘mountains of metal’ or ‘ribbons
of asphalt’.
Dedicated and specialized, several Post-Oil groups are in the
process of compiling survival information for those future
days. It is very overwhelming how much there is to learn, and
no one person can learn it all. The applications hardly seem
relevant; the scenarios don’t even exist! For example; how to
melt aluminum and reshape it into other, useable items.
I will leave you with a final thought from Aric McBay :
Similarly, when a large, complex society breaks down
I expect that some people will specialize in breaking
down the infrastructure into smaller parts that small
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
and sustainable groups can use. People won’t only
dismantle infrastructure out of altruism or because
getting rid of industrial installations and detoxifying
those sites will benefit future generations (although
that is the case and many people will do it for those
reasons). People will do it also because it will make
immediate personal and economic sense. (Even now,
“everybody’s doing it”.)
I’ve Seen Sunny Days that I
thought would Never End
AN INNOCENT CHILD OF THE SIXTIES
As James Taylor sings in ‘Fire and Rain’; things don’t always
turn out as expected. When I was growing up as a child of the
60’s and early 70s I had only the slightest inkling of world
events. Someone was always starving somewhere, I knew there
was a war in Vietnam, and that man had landed on the moon;
but until 1973 no mention had ever been made of gasoline
shortages.
photo source: Gondwana Man – A New Zealander’s journey
to a sustainable future
The lore of the open road; including annual ‘See America’
family excursions and the ‘We’ve got us a Convoy’ trucker/
CB radio craze left a very large imprint on my perception
of freedom. To many a teenager in those days A SET OF
WHEELS = FREEDOM. The magic age was 16 and a half in
Massachusetts to get a driver’s license permit.
Life was good. At the age of 18, I had missed the draft – it had
been made voluntary. My summer job, would you believe; was
working at an outdoor drive-in movie theater. Sex, Cars and
Rock n Roll served up from the concession stand every night
until 1am.
FREEDOM ON TWO WHEELS
My first motorized wheels were those on a yellow Batavus
moped. I moved up to a Yamaha dual-drive on/off road
motorbike, then a Kawasaki 400cc street bike. That one
got me all the way to the laid back lifestyle of California.
Throughout college I had always been able to borrow the
family wheels, sometimes the station wagon, sometimes the
Datsun hatchback. But I always had wheels.
While I was earning ‘big money’ from my first job as an
engineer and had some to burn; I actually had two vehicles –
a 4WD Jeep Cherokee and a 1972 VW bug. I would drive them
13
December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
alternately and park one of them in the yard of my roomates’ I feel that it is my duty to inform and educate others in time,
house. Life was good. so that they can make adjustments in their lifestyle. We will
need a well-informed and collectively cool (calm) body of
VOLUNTARY DOWNSIZING
innovators to lead the general population to the next phase;
All good things come to an end; and based upon a purely living in a post-oil society.
personal decision I decided to downsize my life. It was time
My favourite word (its so musical) is ‘esperanza’. That’s
to see what was hiding in the other neck of the woods. I left
Spanish for ‘hope’.
my cosy engineering company (they begged me not to) and re-
trained myself for another career in the humanities; teaching. I have shared my personal story in this hope; of inspiring
I ditched the Jeep, kept the classic bug – and restored it. I others that adopting voluntary change is imperative to cope
worked out an arrangement to live rent free with a couple by with the Sunny Days of the future. Don’t wait to be pushed;
taking care of their children. take it upon yourselves!
Then I retired for a year at the age of 34. I took up organic Ted Ollikkala
gardening and macrobiotics; and went camping a lot. No Singapore
wife, no girlfriend – part owner of a house, living in it and
transforming our modest acre in the country into a private
Victory Garden. The end of the world was not in sight, and
there was no war (just skirmishes and occupations). Life was
How the People will react
good. I never bought much, clothes a couple times a year from When confronted with possible evidence that the quality of
thrift shops, and daily food and gas was about it. life in the USA is undergoing irreversable degradation leading
to personal hardship, extreme inconvenience, and a forced
OUTSIZING change in lifestyle, such as facts, figures, and competently
My natural curiosity expanded to include the lives of others analyzed statistics; there are several ways in which people will
in the Global Garden. Wanderlust took me to Southeast Asia, tend to react.
leaving personal transportation behind for the final time in These reactions are:
1997. In the decade since; a global mindset has lifted the fog
of conditioned bias from my homeland and I think that I’m • Denial
starting to get the big picture: trying to support, feed, and
harmonize 6,664,629,754 people on this planet. • Greed
• Hatred / Blame / Ridicule
• Tolerance
• Paranoia
• Indifference
• Jealousy
• Escapists / Quitters / Suicide
• Hoarders
http://www.xist.org/default1.aspx
• Complainers
Trying to find enough energy to run all of the factories, ship
all of the goods, and take those people around town 365 days • Sentimentalists
a year for the rest of their lives. • Optimists
And now I hear that it won’t be as easy to continue producing • Rationalists
our civilization’s main source of energy. It will never be as
cheap as it used to be, but there will still be plenty. It just costs • Religious fervor
more to get it out of the ground.
A deep schism will polarize Amercian society. Optimists may
THE COMING OIL CRASH be severely impeded in their ability to problem solve and bring
It’s the long term prospects that are truly horrendous. Take about corrective and preventative measures by the actions of
away that energy too quickly and everything that runs on people unwilling to contribute to the common good.
it, whether directly or indirectly will collapse. Take it away MENTALITY THAT GOES AGAINST SOCIETY
gradually and human ingenuity is likely to cope better, but
not without tremendous upheaval and strife. Remember how People who have a ‘me-first’ mentality may not able to
vehement Americans get when you take away their God given sacrifice/share their time, energy, compassion and material
rights; the right to drive a car, the right to fill up their tank at goods including personal property (land, housing) for the sake
whim, the right to live an hour away from work, etc. of a larger group.

SOUNDING THE CALL At some point society may break down into localized
communities if and when central government is unable to
I am preparing myself to downsize yet once again, preparing function efficiently. In agriculturally sustainable areas people
for hard times ahead. Because I am a teacher by profession,

14
December 18th, 2009
will band around farming communities from which they will
derive foodstuffs.
There would be an exodus away from cities where
transportation and the sheer quantity of humans requiring
basic necessities is too dense to support any type of trade
infrastructure.
In the absense of official policy; without government
regulations being enforced, and lack of an organized
police presence – safe conduct becomes the responsibility
of the individual citizen. Human rights violations would,
unfortunately equalize the balance between the ‘haves’ and the
‘have-nots’ accomplished through loss of life and abuse.
In such a chaotic state of affairs many communities will
fail; focusing the rigors of daily existance on hand-to-mouth
survival. It would be difficult under these circumstances
to organize any type of cohesive leadership that would act
responsibly.
THE REAL NAME OF THE GAME
Having painted such a scenario; can we not see immediately
that the name of the game is to create a majority of optimists?
Some see the approaching decline of civilization as a
prolonged period of suffering, while others, resigned to the
fact that it won’t go away – have opted for hope, optimism,
rising up to the challenge, banding together to create a new
future, and emerging eventually to a re-birth of humanity. One
might say that the deck of cards is ‘about to be shuffled’.
Paul Thompson – The Twilight
of the Modern World [pdf]
“When considering what to do about the upcoming collapse
of modern society, we have to be aware of what will happen.
When speculating on the future, we can envisage four stages
which can be defined by the three factors of energy source,
interdependence and security.”
download PDF (12 pages)
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
What to do when the rioting
starts
It doesn’t take much to start a riot. Once the trigger point is
reached, watch out.
In an age where access to common resources is likely to be
limited and availability scarce or non-existant; we need some
guidelines to live by. Man’s worst enemy is not himself; it’s his
neighbor!
A riot, by the way – is defined as follows:
1. A wild or turbulent disturbance created by a large
number of people.
2. Law. A violent disturbance of the public peace by three
or more persons assembled for a common purpose.
3. An unrestrained outbreak, as of laughter or passions.
Americans are more familiar with mini-scale riots; bar brawls,
road rage, jealous spouse; but we actually have very limited
experience with the real thing.
Rioting requires a consensus that something is horribly wrong
or deemed to be a personal injustice and demands immediate,
violent action to resolve. It is part of the fight or flight
syndrome; in which excess adrenaline is manifest by the
human body.
PACIFIST ALTERNATIVES TO RIOTING
1. When people are rioting about food; you’re in the
backyard garden harvesting
2. When angry people in their cars are queued up for blocks
waiting to fill their tank or for the gas station to open; you’re
riding past on a bicycle.
3. When heartbroken people are forced out of their homes; you
take them into yours and build community sharing and pool
resources.
4. If you have what people are serious wanting (food, money,
transportation, basic neccessities, clothes) you offer to provide
in exchange for their goods or services (bartering)
5. If ignorant people put up a fuss; train them in the
proper manner.
6. Value the intellectual as much as the laborer; society needs
both to survive.
7. Possession of money has nothing to do with character.
8. Don’t abandon the elderly; you need their life experience
and wisdom
9. If people can’t get what they need; help them improvise an
alternative.
10. If an idea works for you; maybe it will work for others.
Share and educate.
HOARDING
1. It’s OK to hoard. This makes you a ‘one-stop service
center’ for that particular commodity. As long as you treat the
commodity as a central supply for your particular community
you’re performing a valuable service. Some people will hoard
15
December 18th, 2009
metal scraps (for reshaping into other useful items); while
some will collect and distribute non-perishable foodstuffs
(canned, preserved goods).
2. Transportation will be worth its weight in gold. Keep the
lines open with proper security, maintenance. Collect a fleet
of efficient vehicles for distribution of essential supplies. This
includes trains, pickup trucks, and bicycles.
DEBTS
1. Labor bondage / indemnity / work camps will be used by
creditors against default on their loans. It’s a heck of a lot more
useful form of ‘punishment’ than putting people in prison! The
people need not suffer in their bondage; they will gratiously
accept this alternative of doing ’community service’.
UNEMPLOYMENT
1. No one need be unemployed. There will be a drastic labor
shortage as most labor-saving, automatic, and manufacturing
machines will be unable to operate or in disrepair during a
prolonged energy crisis, fuel shortage.
2. Apprenticeship will re-establish itself as a better hands-on
method than formal education as specialised skills are always
in demand (blacksmithing, repair of hand-tools, farming, food
processing and preservation, etc). Moreover, it’s localised and
requires no central institution; operating autonomously and
independently.
PLEASE ADD TO THIS LIST.
11th Hour Action; the
movie, the community, free
screenings
First of all; you need to know about the full-feature film
documentary, “The 11th Hour“ (what a beautiful website!)
released at the Cannes Film Festival in May 2007, and now
available on DVD in the USA.
Much wider in scope than Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth”,
this one takes on all of the demons that humanity has created
and will convince you that they’re about to tear us asunder.
In other words, destroy humanity itself. Coming from such
luminaries, this documentary is not to be taken lightly:
With contributions from over 50 of the world’s most
prominent thinkers and activists, including former Soviet
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
leader Mikhail Gorbachev, physicist Stephen Hawking, Nobel
Prize winner Wangari Maathai, and journalist Paul Hawken,
the film documents the grave problems facing the planet’s life
systems.
YouTube – The 11th Hour Trailer
Global warming, deforestation, mass species extinction, and
depletion of the oceans’ habitats are all addressed. The film’s
premise is that the future of humanity is in jeopardy.
The film offers hope and potential solutions to these problems
by calling for restorative action by the reshaping and
rethinking of global human activity through technology, social
responsibility and conservation.
Scientists and environmental advocates such as David Orr,
David Suzuki, and Gloria Flora paint a portrait for a radically
new and different future in which it is not humanity’s intent
to dominate the planet’s life systems, but to mimic and coexist
with them. Wikipedia
The movie has spawned an army of action oriented
organizations. The point is, if you want to get involved –
the movement is spreading. For example, check out The 11th
Hour Action Community:
“The 11th Hour Action Community helps individuals and
communities connect with each other to help find solutions
that will reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, increase the
use of renewable energy, and slow down consumption of
natural resources.”
More than that; this is a go-all-out effort – targeting the hip
social networking sites:
Basically, it boils down to this: RE-EDUCATE THE PEOPLE
OF THE PLANET IN THE BASIC LIFE-NATURE-CYCLE
THAT GOT US HERE (*BEFORE WE GOT NUMBED BY
INSATIABLE CONSUMERISM)
Check it out.
Suicidal thought of the day:
They’ve just discovered more
oil – now I can relax!
How many times have we heard this one?
It seems that every time someone tries to publish an optimistic
article either denouncing peak oil or predicting that prices
‘must’ go down, the inevitable arguments begin in the
comment section.
In a world where peak oil theory is gaining respected
acceptance at all levels (including government), such an article
is likely to get ’shot down’ pretty quickly. The commenters
leave no doubt that dissent in the ranks cannot and will not
be tolerated. Why? Because we’re all in this global oil boat
together.
We all drive cars, we all depend on oil-fueled transportation
to deliver our consummables. And we heat our homes with oil.
All egos aside; and all numbers aside also please; can we get
down to the real business at hand?
A PEAK OILERS BEST FRIEND
16
December 18th, 2009
People who’s hobby it is to comment on articles and blog
postings like to use their secret weapons to swiftly discredit
the posters and win arguments. Being widely read, I come
across the same numbers time and time again. Here’s an
example:
“Consider these facts: According to Matthew R.
Simmons, author of “Twilight in the Desert — The
Risk of Peak Oil,” and one of the testifiers before
our Energy Committee, oil accounts for 95 percent of
our transportation energy and is increasingly being
used to make consumer goods. In 1995, the world
demanded 70 million barrels per day (mbd), and
today we demand 88 mbd. World crude production
was at about 69 mbd in 2003, 74 mbd in 2005, and is
currently at about 73 mbd.” source
Facts are facts, no matter the source – but some of the claims
made by peak oil denouncers, such as:
“That brings us to speculation. Evans observes that
since September 2003, the total number of open
crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364
percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum
rose by just 8.2 percent. “So the futures and options
market has become more important than the physical
supplies in driving the price,” concludes Evans. ‘We
are seeing investment flows into the oil market that
don’t have anything to do with the demand and
supply of oil.’” source
While seemingly presenting ‘facts’, such people are merely
trying to link some numbers from one side of the equation to
something not neccessarily related. The logic is not sound. The
cause – effect relationship is not substantiated.
POINTLESS COMMENTS
There are other types of pointless comments, such as the
ones offering unsubstantiated evidence and/or premature
assumptions:
“With untapped resources in ANWR and North
Dakota, I think the prediction of the “end of oil” is a
bit premature.” source
It gets better (nerdspeak):
“Peak oil Predictions have been around for 150 years,
they have proven wrong time and time again.” source
Hold it, people. All of this is besides the point… the game is up!
SHORT TERM HAPPINESS IS FOR NERDS
Enough of this endless twittering – the issue at hand is this: Oil
prices are currently higher than they’ve ever been. Who knows
where the price of oil will go in the future? That’s uncertain.
But short-term fluctuations are not the ‘big picture’.
The mentality of people who focus on these two factors really
hurts everyone:
1. I want prices to go down and stay down
2. I want more oil to be discovered so I can sleep well at
night and continue my gas-hogging lifestyle
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Numbers aside (you can throw around all the numbers you like
now; have a nice ‘food fight’) and speculation aside also;
WHAT ARE YOU PERSONALLY DOING TO ALLEVIATE
DEPENDENCE ON OIL?
All talk and no action is still ‘no action’. Action without talk
is foolishness. The purpose of talk is to gain consensus on the
scope of the problem, agree on baselines, and formulate a plan
accordingly. There will always be peak-oil deniers; fate will
take care of them – or as Matt Savinar conveniently states in
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
‘Deal With Reality Or Reality Will Deal With You’ – Matt
Savinar
I plead with energy conscious bloggers and authors to put
aside our differences and agree to work together. Dissent
in the ranks cannot be tolerated; leave doubters to their
fate. Work with people who want to survive and who want
civilization to survive.
GREEN CLUB ORGANIZATIONS
One further note: no need to clean up the earth. The earth
has the combined wisdom of the ages and knows what to do.
All we need to do is remove the source of her poisoning, one
step at a time. Green people need to become ‘energy people’.
Wildlife people need to become ‘energy people’. Food people
need to become ‘energy people’ because energy lies at the root
of mankind’s current problems.
Agree? Time to take action!
Americans gear down for $6/
gallon gasoline
It’s finally sinking in; Americans have begun implementing
fuel conserving measures. Although economically inspired,
as opposed to coming from a sense of compassion about
dwindling resources, all-in-all this is a good thing for the
planet, and for an American civilization that is totally
dependent on cheap oil.
THE WAKE UP CALL IS $4 / GALLON
With a majority of Americans believing that high fuel prices
are here to stay, and expecting them to go even higher (54%
say they expect gas prices to reach $6 a gallon in the next five
years) – they are very quickly changing their driving habits.
It’s been a tough road to get the energy conservation ball
rolling, previous nudges (Katrina, 911, Invasion of Iraq) did
little more than rouse the people’s curiosity. Americans must
wake up and take measures such as a personal energy policy, to
save and stretch and reuse these unrenewable energy sources,
which are slowly running out in the face of unrelentless global
demand.
IN THE NEWS
These days increasing media coverage is given to this very
important topic: How is America to wean itself from oil driven
transportation (both personal and delivery of commodities)?
Peak Oil expert Matthew Simmons has even gone so far to say
that “Oil firms are in liquidation“. It’s actually a new term for
17
December 18th, 2009
what he and others have been saying all along; it’s all downhill
(production) from here. The only thing going up is prices.
AN ENERGY OPPORTUNITY
Every cloud has its silver lining, and so – we hope; will the
energy cloud. A ‘just-in-time’ transition to more efficient living
arrangements, more energy efficient forms of transportation,
and good old-fashioned neighborly sharing should get us
through the oil doldrums in good fashion… unless something
like a global economic meltdown, severe depression (yes, as
bad as the 1930’s) and/or an oil war breaks out. But be wary;
even in fair weather all may not be so rosy. When you listen to
Warren Buffet, you’ve got to be on edge when he says:
” So I think we’ve got to do everything we can in
alternative areas, but I don’t–I do not see that as a
cure-all at all. ” (full transcript)
Nobody seems to know yet how ‘inconvenient’ the energy
shortage will get, or which are the best alternatives to adopt.
All do agree however, that change takes time, new technology
needs an infrastructure to plug into, and that oil consumption
must be cut or at least downsized to match current production
levels.
DOWNSIZING IS GOOD
Let’s do what we can in our own way, and when we find
something that works, educate others and bankroll our
combined mass energy savings to multiply efficiency. We will
teach by example. Downsizing, mininizing, economizing will
become the next trend. After that, it will be ‘localizing’, mini-
farming, and self-sufficient communities.
It’s a long road ahead, and will go on for several generations
until the planet is stabilized. That is, the planet is once again
brought into equilibrium with the demands of mankind.
What if? Luxury Tax on SUVs
Let’s look at a possible near-future scenario in the USA; the
implementation of an imposed mandatory luxury tax on SUVs.
Suppose that due to any combination of fall-out effects from
either (i) global warming* and/or (ii) shortage of oil supplies*
(gasoline) certain laws were to be enacted by federal or state
government.
NOT THE ONLY TAX
Yet this would likely be only the first of a long-list of cutbacks
and forced curbs on useage imposed on American society as
global decay of civilization spreads uncontrolled. The purpose
of these restrictions is not driven by economic supply and
demand; rather they are brought into being when voluntary
efforts fail to improve a situation or when scarcity of survival
items causes extreme hardship.
Consider how you would react if the following restrictions
were placed on the American public (the bad news):
• Luxury Tax on SUVs: $1000 per year
• Gasoline rationing: 200% surcharge and limits on
consumption (25 gallons per week)
• Issuance of rationing cards for purchase of gasoline
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Now consider some alternatives (the good news):
1. The cost of public transportation per year is substantially
cheaper than the cost of owning a vehicle
2. Public transportation is heavily subsidized (almost free)
by the SUV and gasoline surcharges.
3. The availability of high speed, modern public
transportation is expanded to connect every city in the
USA.
4. A new form of ‘clean/green’ personal transport is
introduced. While extremely fuel efficient and non-
polluting, it has limited capacity and speed. However, at
slower speeds it is safer than most current cars.
Do you consider that most Americans would consider the
‘good news’ to be a fair compromise in the attempt to wean
them off of a craving for SUVs and to be more environmentally
friendly? While we may have a choice over selection of
transportation modes we may not have the ability to regulate
the price of its fuel source. Such a tangled web we weave, but
we do the best we can
(i) SUVs spew out 43 percent more global-warming pollutants
– 28 pounds of carbon dioxide per gallon of gas consumed –
and 47 percent more air pollution than the average car. Source:
SUV Report, Global Warming – Sierra Club
(ii) OPEC members control 3/4’s of the world’s oil reserves,
Saudia Arabia alone controls a quarter of the total. The US has
11 years worth of oil reserves while Saudia Arabia has 261.8
years, and Iraq has 100. Source: The Economist, 6/29/02
Future Car Awareness
This is my definition of a car (has been for quite some time):
CAR – A piece of metal with four wheels that gets you
from point A to point B.
No more, no less! No need to compare it to anyone else’s
car. Strictly practical, affordable – I’ve got enough hassles in
my life without worrying about a ‘car’. A car is a personal
transportation device; soon to be restricted. It will be highly
regulated/taxed, and limited from full participation in the
great American automobile race. It may even become an
‘environmental crime’ to use one excessively.
AUTOMOBILES WILL BE PARTIALLY BANNED
Roads previously reserved for private automobiles will be
given over to commercial traffic, unnecessary travel will be
penalized (via tolls, license renewal taxes), and people will
simply give you ‘dirty looks’ if you’re seen driving alone!
Think it won’t happen? Think again…
The private automobile is a luxury we can no longer afford.
Not monetarily, but environmentally. We’ve got to save what
gas is left for the important jobs; such as trucking, farming,
and public transportation. There will be a changeover, and it’s
already happening.
CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO
18
December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Driving a car, no matter what type – will no longer be ‘cool’.
On the other hand, however – people will applaud if you’re EIA at Odds with Peak Oil
seen on a Vespa motor scooter or other electric / hydrogen / GOOD NEWS OR DISINFORMATION?
or hybrid vehicle. They’re likely to ask “How many miles per
gallon do you get” or “Where can I buy what you’ve got?”.
Driving an oil-fueled combustion engine powered car is
similar to smoking on an airplane (not to mention being
illegal). People (and the atmosphere) will inhale your
emissions and be poisoned. “Did little old me do all that
damage?” Impossible, you might think. Now multiply yourself
(times how many millions) and tell me that don’t add up to
significance.
THE CONSUMER IS RIGHT (UNFORTUNATELY)
Car manufacturers will build whatever Mr. American public
wants to drive; they don’t really care! They will create
sporty, luxury, off-road, convertibles, or any-other-damn
thing (including Hummers) that you dare to drive. Let’s send
a message to the automobile manufacturers of the world that
we’re interested in buying transportation devices that don’t
create harmful carbon emissions or use up excessive amounts
of energy getting from point A to point B.
What’s this? The US Government is telling us not to worry;
The key to change is NOT to regulate the automobile
oil prices – although currently at record highs, will be slowly
manufacturers by slapping on emission controls and
declining. However, in the long term there is likely to be
regulations. Change must begin at home with the drivers
tremendous stability in world oil prices all the way up to 2030,
themselves. They must adopt alternative methods of
with prices ranging only between $42 to $180 per barrel.
transportation. The most effective (and fastest method) is
simply to cut your driving by 30%.
The most effective (and fastest method) is simply to
cut your driving by 30%.
Indeed, note that the scenario of continued abuse of the
pollution generating personal transportation machine, is
independent of the price of fuel. How much more likely are
we to go back to our heavy pattern of abuse (which has always
been glamourized in car company commercials as part of the
American Dream) if oil prices fall back to previous levels ($14-
$35 a barrel).
THE END IN SIGHT
One final argument. If we do manage to find a sustainable
non-carbon fuel source to power our personal vehicles; there
are still the twin evils of over-use and congestion on limited
access roadways. The solution to THIS problem used to be:
build more roads. NOW the answer would rationally be: use
fewer vehicles.
The EIA is a government agency funded by US tax dollars to
“provide timely and comprehensive information” to
Congress and the American people on critical energy
issues. The EIA’s “Operating Principles” call on the
agency to “Act with a sense of urgency,” to “Always
tell the truth,” and to “Do the right thing.” (SOURCE)
The EIA’s latest statistics (March 2008 ) suggests that Peak
Oil problems are “decades away … not years away.” Peak
Oil theorists such as Matthew Simmons, Matt Savinar, Colin
Campbell (who is quoted on the poster below) all disagree.
The EIA slides are from:
Why Are Oil Prices So High and Where are They
Going?
19
December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Subject: Petroleum, Forecast, International
Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator
Presented to: Global Finance Forum
Washington, DC – March 11, 2008
TRUTH OR DARE
The EIA has been heavily criticized by Peak Oil theorists,
namely The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
(ASPO-USA).
ASPO-USA is a nonpartisan, proactive effort
to encourage prudent energy management,
constructive community transformation, and
cooperative initiatives during an era of depleting
petroleum resources.
In fact, ASPO-USA is absolutely furious; accusing EIA of
ignoring evidence, refusing to open a dialogue with Peak Oil
Theorists, and conducting a dis-information campaign.
The most heavily cited evidence is this poster (pdf) The forecast accounts for ‘high’, ‘reference’, and ‘low’
economic growth; but nevertheless the EIA is telling us that
production will continue to rise for many years to come. In
contrast; the peak oil theorists are predicting poor and/or
negative economic growth and a decline in production. So
when will production eventually start to decrease?

Note that the ‘optimists’ (EIA, CERA [Cambridge Energy

Research Associates], and Shell) represent US government
interests and oil companies, while those estimating a closer
date for decline in production are the ‘independent analysists’,
Take a look a the information provided on this EIA poster
many of whom are seasoned veterans in the oil industry
more closely:
without political ties. The gap in predicted dates is substantial,
but the oil companies are starting to listen.

20
December 18th, 2009
Note the last sentence:
“Opinions on the effect of passing Hubbert’s peak
range from the faith that the market economy
will produce a solutionto predictions of doomsday
scenarios of a global economy unable to meet its
energy needs.”
One criticism of the market economy producing a solution is
that ‘classic market economy’ assumes that supply balances
demand.
So what happens when an increase in demand (coming from
India and China’s huge thirst for energy) cannot keep up with
(i) current oil production levels or (ii) artificial limits forced
on the production of oil production by wars and/or OPEN
controls?
Even if EIA is accurate in its forecast, the consequences
could be disastrous if global demand (or any single country’s
demand) exceeds the amount available. There won’t be
enough oil to go around. At any price.
Most peak oil theorists argue that due to these unpredictable
factors (war/terrorism, OPEC, strength of the US dollar,
economic stability, recovery of the sub-prime situation) the
chances of demand encountering a decreased supply is highly
likely. In fact, this is what accounts for the present surge in oil
prices (May 2008).
THE POINT IS NOT “WHEN IS THE PEAK”
There is no risk that we are running out of oil but
chances of being able to match the projected growth
in demand over the medium term with a rise in
production is being seriously questioned (abstract of
a paper entitled: Peak Oil, A Reality or Hype? by
Mamdouh G. Salameh)
My hope is that all parties concerned maintain peak vigilance
over the situation as events unfold and to remember one
important maxim: it’s better to be over-prepared than under.
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
Peak Oil – Pick a Curve
THE RIDE TO THE TOP
As far as I can see; we all agree on one thing – that once we
hit the peak, it’s all downhill. The ride up to the peak has been
well documented, but the ride down, we are warned – is likely
to be bumpy and very unpredictable.
However, once this situation has been taken in and PO is
treated with the respect that it deserves; your life will never be
the same again (read by Aaron Wissner). Cars and gas stations
will never look the same. Bumper-to-bumper commute traffic
will give you time to muse about being in the ’same boat’.
A WIN-WIN SITUATION, IF EVERYONE ACTS NOW
But no matter which theory you subscribe to; acting on Peak
Oil is a win-win situation, it can’t hurt to implement some
downsizing in your life, to lower your carbon footprint, to
start a garden, to bond together with your community, to re-
plan a more aesthetically pleasing suburbia, to treat gasoline
as the precious resource that it really is – and to realize the
extraordinary value you get out of each cup.
Its a good idea to think about gasoline by the cup (rather
than gallons). Why? Well, Peak Oil proponents like to compare
a delicious cup of fresh perked gasoline to American’s other
staple; the morning cup of coffee. Which do you think costs
more? Gasoline is just about the cheapest liquid you can buy
in America!
You are free to act or react to Peak Oil; or not to act at all. As
Matt Savinar says: “‘Reality’ will take care of you”.
POSSIBLE REALITIES (ONE OF WHICH IS GUARANTEED,
SAYS THE PIPER)
(graph courtesy Gail Tverberg)
According to Peak Oil theorists, not all is necessarily ‘doom
and gloom’ (I will tell you a secret; we like to see who can dig
up the ’scariest’ daily news, hoping to hit the motherlode – and
narely a day disappoints! (Read Let’s play “Peak Oil Shock Me”
by Kurt Cobb)
Richard Heinberg, from “Peak Everything“:
“Who among us hasn’t fretted over the likely impacts
of societal collapse on oneself, family, and friends?
Of course, it’s perfectly sensible to make some
preparations. We should have some food stored, we
should be gardening and making efforts to reduce
our energy usage and need for transportation. But
21
December 18th, 2009
the obsessive thought that it’s not enough can be
paralyzing.
What if financial collapse proceeds to economic,
political, and cultural collapse; what could one
possibly do to insulate oneself in that case? Tough
question. There are too many unknowns. No matter
what we do, there can never be a guarantee that we
will be immune to the consequences of Peak Oil and
Climate Change.”
PICK A CURVE
You have a choice of curves (Dry Dipstick Scenarios page ,
OilScenarios.info); from optimistic to total panic, and a few in-
between.
However, even practical doomsayers like Matt Savinar,
Richard Heinberg, Matthew Simmons and Colin Campbell all
hope they’re wrong; but then again say that it’s not likely.
OilScenarios has done an excellent job of documenting a series
of five different scenarios:
ACT RESPONSIBLY
Your survival plans and daily thinking will be influenced by
which scenario you adopt. Initial scenario, that is – because
until the trigger point is reached; it’s anybody’s (educated)
guess. More importantly, it is critical that you are able to adjust
your personal strategy to follow the actual developments at
they unfold.
STAY ON TOP
In fact, events are unfolding before our very eyes. Right now.
For example, this popped up in front of me today and nearly
knocked me off my chair:
Eco-Anxiety: A Call to Action
Sarah Anne Edwards, HopeDance
And So It Begins…
The signs are all about. Each day there are more, and
they are escalating in seriousness.
• Delta Airlines is significantly cutting its number of
flights this summer.
• Flights that aren’t full in time for take off will be
cancelled.
• Middle-aged white-collar workers in their 40s and
50s are moving back into their parents’ homes for
shelter.
• Twenty-four states are now paying $4 or higher for
gasoline.
Therefore, to stay on top of things:
1. Read Energy Bulletin
2. Then check The Oil Drum
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
3. And look at more news at Peak Oil in the News
(thanks to Dry Dipstick)
In the meantime, hang on for the ride of your lives…
Volunteering and Creating
Jobs
Forget the old paradigm (employer - employee serfdom
relationship).
Here's what you do (you have more control over the situation
than you might think or are conditioned to think):
You basically have the power to create your own job.
1. Identify a need in the community (you've done this)
2. Make sure the need matches your passion and at least some
aspect of your present skill set
3. Do your homework. Find out everything you can about the
organisation. Talk to people who are connected with it to gain
their valuable insight. They will be flattered that you took the
time and energy to do this (it shows you care!)
4. Create the job by going up to the person in charge
5. Inform them of the gap that you have identified in their
organisation (a need for ?)
6. Offer to fill that gap out of a sense of ethical compassion
7. Point out how efficient it would be for them to take you on
(win-win situation, right?)
8. Say: I will be here tomorrow to get started. What time shall
I come and who would I report to?
9. After that, let them know that you will develop a plan to
get what needs to be done, done. Assume 'some' authority
over your focus area, no matter how small/big it is. Be
tactful, helpful, integrate with the team, and avoid stepping
on anyone's sensitive toes. Develop healthy relationships and
avoid the tendency to complain. You may need these contacts
later on!
10. If you can manage people, get to know the staff and
assemble a task group
11. If you can manage resources, then do an evaluation of
where the group is wasting materials. Save them some money
or get the materials cheaper.
12. Even if you don't know the skill set well (gardening, animal
care) offer to team up with someone for mentoring / assisting /
apprenticeship
13. Make and keep your promises/comittments. Arrive early,
dress well, smile and be polite at all times. Just because they're
not paying you in cold hard cash (they might) doesn't mean
your impression and punctuality isn't any less important. It's
probably more important!
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December 18th, 2009
14. Once you know the ropes, be as independent as possible.
Don't be a strain on their manpower. They will appreciate this
mucho.
15. Become 'invaluable' (someone they can't do without). At
all the volunteer positions I ever had, I think I worked harder
(or at least more efficiently) than the regular employees (but
without coming off as a 'show-off') and they appreciated my
enthusiasm and genuine commitment.
That's all I can think of for now. This is an exciting opportunity
to start a new outlook on life. Think of it as a temporary
unpaid internship (read: free on-the-job training). This is
basically how I transitioned from being an engineer in the
USA (by choice, I burned out) to becoming first (1) an
certified early childhood education provider and (2) a certified
Communication Skills teacher in a community college. Now I
happen to live in Southeast Asia (well before all of this doom
started, but I'm glad to be here and not THERE).
Published by: Ted Ollikkala
What Would I Do?
If I were young, mid-20's American and did not have to worry
about
* A stable, well established career
* Money in the bank (not to mention, no debt)
* Family ties (taking care of elderly parents)
* Spouse ties (unmarried)
And I knew that hard times are coming (for the whole country,
starting now with governments going broke / insolvent (New
York, California)). Etc. etc. etc...
I would think twice about planning for my future. I have
mobility. I have freedom. I have more choices than 90% of
Americans. Let me make those choices 'smart'.
***
THE OLD RULES ARE NO LONGER VALID

Life isn't work, and life isn't money. It's putting a roof over The Old Rules = American Dream (climb until you reach the
your head and food in your belly and maintaining health. Do it sky)
by whatever means you have at your disposal, including barter. ***
The old rule used to be: Do what you love - the money will
The Negative
follow. Not sure what will follow now.
People I know (and don't know) are losing their jobs or having
their
Identify at least three back-up tasks that you can offer in
addition to the main need / duty you are going to fullfill for the 1. salaries cut
organisation. Be a jack-of-all-trades (or at least make it appear 2. hours cut
that way)....
3. unpaid holidays

Don't forget the other needs of organisations:

People I know already out of work
• Publicity 1. cannot find a job
• Maintenance / repair 2. become under-employed (same as over-qualified)
• Administration 3. go back to school for a 'practical career'
• Plain old manual labor The Positive
• Cooking People in general are downsizing:
• Cleaning * re-using, repairing, recycling
• Delivery * sharing expenses (housing)
• Puchasing / procurement * doing things themselves
• Answering phones * cutting back on non-essentials
• Writing correspondence * getting back to basics (gardening, sewing, cooking)
• Painting (as in houses)
• Graphic design This is the new normal. There is no end in sight (and it is likely
• Webmaster to get worse)
Danger Zone
I don't take on new debt
1. because I may not be able to pay it back
2. I may be a candidate for debtor's prison
3. The banks aren't lending anyways
4. The credit card companies are ruthless and heartless

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December 18th, 2009 Published by: Ted Ollikkala
5. The US dollar may crash * Repairing household items
6. There may be hyper-inflation (this could work to * Meeting my neighbors
advantage, though) * Volunteering
I clear off my old debt * Self-defence
* As fast as I can
* Reason (2) Nothing wrong with any of these. Back when times were
* Reason (4) simple and uncomplicated and the family was king, a man
knew his neighbor, and let a little imagination fill the time.
* Reason (5)
I unlearn bad habits:
* Buying luxuries
I don't buy a house now
* Driving everywhere on a whim
* Because the values keep dropping (another 20%)
* Watching mindless television
* Home ownership is no longer the investment it used to be
* Believing everything the Media says
* I can't get credit (welcome to the club)
* Following the crowd (called being a 'sheeple')
* I don't take on new debt

There is a 'slow crash' going on in the USA. It won't

I make myself as self-sufficient as possible
happen overnight, but look how much has changed just since
1. I live near to where I work September 2008.
2. I grow my own food, or get it locally
3. I am active in my community (organizing co-ops for
bartering, trading)
4. I help people to help themselves (teach skills, form support
groups, share resources)
FAIR USE NOTICE This site contains copyrighted material
the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by
I prepare for the worse the copyright owner. We are making such material available
in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of ecological
* Don't keep all your money in the bank. Have substantial and humanitarian significance. We believe this constitutes
cash on hand for emergency (such as a bank holiday) a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided
* Stock up on a couple months food (canned, dried, beans, for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance
rice) with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior
* Able to survive without electricity (off the grid, if the grid
interest in receiving the included information for research and
goes down)
educational purposes. For more information go to: http://
* Able to survive without a car (gas shortage, price increase, www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use
rationing) copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own
* Replace paper money with items of tangible value (gold, that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the
food, gasoline, medical supplies, toilet paper) – the things that copyright owner.
people will need in an emergency!
* Form a neighborhood patrol / vigilante group to keep an Original material copyright 2009 Ted Ollikkala, Singapore.
eye on each other's property
* Identify items that will be hard to get in the future
(medical supplies, medicine, generators, batteries, candles,
ways to cook food and heat your home, etc.)

I re-learn basic skills

* First aid
* Reading (ancient pastime)
* Sewing
* Cooking
* Canning / Preserving
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