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IN A SHIFTING CLIMATE
Dr. Thrivikramji K.P.
thrivikramji@gmail.com
Center for Environment & Development
Thozhuvancod, Thiruvananthapuram 695 013
Introduction
Sustainable development (SD) visualized utilization or exploitation of earth
resources (viz., litho-resources and bio-resources) in moderation or
sustainably such that there will be enough of these left behind in the
shallower crust of the earth and above the crust for meeting the needs of
future generation of humans say in the decades and centuries to come. The
term sustainability coined in the 70s seemingly earned world acclaim,
political support, policy initiatives and administrative credibility to varying
degrees among the community of nations. The founding of EPA in USA by
legislation also rendered added meaning to the maxim of sustainability.
The extractive industry focusing on exploitation of (non regenerative) lithoresources squarely leads to its depletion or even exhaustion, and if this
trend of dependency on litho resources continues steadily, in fact it has
been so, inescapably the human society may be heading toward a lithoresource dead end. The prosperity in all facets of human life in the world is
couched on the access free or otherwise to litho-resources.
On the contrary, bio-resources are regenerative at differing time scales (viz.,
seasonal, annual and perennial food crops, seafood and poultry and timber
crops and wild trees). The regenerative potential allows scaling up of
production by injecting modern technologies (such as culturing, devising
hybrids, scientific planting, improved agronomy practices, smart irrigation
and optimal fertilizing) to meet the rising global demand.
In addition to food, fresh or clean air and water are essential for the
wellness or physical and to some degree mental health of the population.
The turn over atmospheric air and winds and rain keeps the lower
atmosphere fairly clean. The hydrologic cycle, maintains a flux from land to
ocean
supplying annually a fresh stock of water in the form of snow and
liquid water. This flux is a great cleanser of the lower atmosphere and earth
materials closer to surface and
Since 1970, the population dynamics of the world went through a huge
change in the last four decades. At the time of the grand design of SD, the
world population stood at 3.5 bn, while it is at 7.0 bn in 2012 and headed to
8.3 bn by 2050. Logically, the SD strategies of the late last century need a
the river bed to gather river sand an archaic substitute for fine aggregate of
the designer-builder.
Human Population (Bomb)
The history of numeric growth of the Human population is nearly well
charted by US Census Bureau and the UN. As pointed out earlier, the SD
frame work along with detailed strategies are meant to ensure a decent
living especially for the millions of poor people distributed among the
different nations of the world. The 2012 world population of 7.00 bn, is
predicted to hit the 8.5 bn mark in 2050. In 1970 world population was only
3.5 bn.
Soon after the WWII, the world population stood at 3.00 bn. Of the 7.22 bn
world population roughly a little more than 2.00 bn are in the fast
developing economies of China and India. Indian population is predicted
cross the Chinese population figure by 2030. Developed countries like the
USA and member countries of EU and especially the northern European
nations are currently facing a population decline or achieved the state of
zero population growth.
Indian scenario
For countries like India and to some extent China the population level bodes
a bad omen in respect of SD. The per capita availability funds for of land
and human development are the sectors that shall undoubtedly take a heavy
beating. As a nation Indias goal is to supply the essentials of human
development like good food, safe water, modest shelter, modern health and
adequate facilities for education. Finally, to cap it all, ample opportunities
for earning a decent wage.
However, a few hundred million of the Indian population is still without
access to these basic needs. People and families are not connected to water
grid or electricity grid or sewage and waste disposal systems. Decent
infrastructure in the sectors of housing, transport, waste water treatment or
solid waste disposal is still a far cry in our country.
The national government has before it a very stupendous task of removing
such deficits in an acceptable and reasonable time frame. Financial crunch
is haunting the nation. But the recent fall in crude prices is a blessing in
disguise for India (like many other oil importers of the world) as there is a
sheer drop in the flight of dollars from our country which is a three-fourth
importer of its oil and gas needs. The level of endowment of coal in India is
very substantial and government plans to double the thermal electricity
production in next five years. However, this proposal has road blocks from
the carbon emission restrictions voluntary or mandated by the COP Lima
2014 and Paris 2015.
Useful Reading.
Brundtland Commission (1987). "Report of the World Commission on
Environment and Development". United Nations.
Thrivikramji.K.P., 1986, River Metamorphosis due to Human Intervention,
Report submitted to MOEF, New Delhi, 151 p.
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987). Our Common
Future. Oxford University Press, ISBN 019282080X.
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