STAT 225: Introduction to Probability Models

Extra Examples
1

Introduction to Probability

Extra 1.1 Let A be an event that happens 40% of the time. Let B be an event that happens 75% of the
time. Answer the following 4 questions. What is the smallest probability the intersection
of A and B can have? What is the largest probability the intersection of A and B can
have? What is the smallest probability the union of A and B can have? What is the largest
probability the union of A and B can have?
.15, .4, .75, and 1 respectively.
Extra 1.2 Suppose we are rolling 2 independent, fair 10-sided die. Let A be the event that the sum of
the rolls is a prime number. Let B be the event that the sum of the rolls is odd. Let C be
the event that the sum of the rolls is even. Find the following sets: BC , A B, A C, A
C, (A C)C , A (B C)C , (A (B C))C ?
BC = C,
A B = A \ {2},
A C = \ {9, 15},
A C = {2},
(A C)C = \ {2},
A (B C)C = A,
and (A (B C))C = .
Extra 1.3 Suppose a lottery has balls numbered 1-20. 4 balls are picked at random and without
replacement. Let A be the event that all 4 balls are even. Let B be the event that all 4
balls are less than 10. Let C be the event that all 4 balls are primes. (Allow 1 to be a
prime.) Find P(A), P(B), and P(C). (Hint an extended general multiplication rule could be
helpful.)
P(all 4 even) =

(10)4
(20)4

= .0433.

(9)4
P(all less than 10) = (20)
= .0260.
4
What numbers are prime? 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, and 19. That is 9 numbers total. P(all
(9)4
=.0260.
prime) = (20)
4

Extra 1.4 A school has 100 students. The school offers only 3 language classes, namely Spanish, Italian
and Russian. 50 students do not take a language. The Spanish, Italian, and Russian classes
have 28, 26, and 16 students respectively. However, 12 students take both Spanish and
Italian, 4 students take both Spanish and Russian, and 6 students take both Italian and
Russian.
How many students take all 3 language classes? 2
What is the probability a randomly chosen student takes exactly 1 language class? .14
+ .1 + .08 = .32.
You randomly draw 2 students. What is the probability that they are taking at least
1 language class between them? 1 - P(neither in a language) = 1 - .5 49
99 = .7525.

Extra 1.5 You have eight rooks in your possession. A rook can either move along a row or a column,
but it can make no other movement. It can move as many as spots as it wants along the
row or column of its choosing. You randomly place these eight rooks on the board, which
is an 8 by 8 square. Find the probability that no rook can capture (run into with a legal
move) any other rook?
6449362516941
6463626160595857

= 9.109 106 .

Extra 1.6 You roll 2 fair, 6-sided die. The first one is a 3. What is the probability that the second die
has a higher value? What is the probability that the first die is higher?
.5 and .3333.
Extra 1.7 Assuming Mary has 6 pairs of shoes, 10 different tops, 8 different bottoms and 4 different
jackets.
a. How many combinations can she have for an outfit?
Use the BCR. 6*10*9*4 = 1920
b. Mary has a job interview and she wants to decide what to wear. She has 2 pairs of
shoes, 3 tops, 2 bottoms and 2 jackets that are appropriate for an interview. She
randomly picks what to wear for the interview among all her possible outfits, what is
the probability that she wears an interview-appropriate outfit?
The top is 2*3*2*2 and the bottom is 1as answer. Which yields .0125.
Extra 1.8 Suppose I have 8 different colors of gumballs. How many different ways can I give 3 children
a gumball?
8 P3

= 336.

Extra 1.9 Suppose you have six different types of flowers and three planters. In how many ways can
you put three flowers in the first planter, two flowers in the second planter, and one flower
in the final planter?


6
Use the MC. 3,2,1
= 60.
Extra 1.10 A company is selecting individuals to fill four seats on its board. Two of the seats will have
major voting rights, and two will have minor voting rights. There is no difference between
the two seats with major rights, nor is there a difference between the two seats with minor
rights. The companys options are: from Division X: Alice and Bob; from Division Y: Carl
and Diana; from Division Z: Edgar. Two people from the same division cannot get a board
seat with the same type of voting rights. How many sets of board seat assignments are
possible?
Partition this into 2 scenarios (with and without Edgar). Without Edgar is the easy scenario.
Without Edgar there are only 4 options. Wlog, think of only who gets the major voting
rights. It could be A and C, A and D, B and C, or B and D.
Now, think of if Edgar is included. There are 2 choices for where to put Edgar. There are
4 choices of who to leave off. You must put someone from the Division with 2 members in
whichever group Edgar is in. There are 2 choices for this. Put this altogether and you have
2*4*2 = 16 options.
So, our overall total is 20.
Extra 1.11 Suppose you have change for 85 cents, $1.53, 27 cents, and $4.00 in the smallest number of
coins possible. i.e. 5 cents = 1 nickel not 5 pennies. Assume $1 coins are used. Let A, B,

C, D be the sets that make up the coins for .85, 1.53, .27, and 4.00 respectively. What is
AB, AC, (CD)C , and (AB)(CD)C ?
A=3 quarters, 1 dime
B= dollar coin, 2 quarters, 3 pennies
C= 1 quarter 2 pennies
D= 4 1-dollar coins
AB= 2 quarters
AC= 3 quarters, 1 dime, 2 pennies
(CD)C = 4 1-dollar coins, 3 quarters, 1 dime, 3 pennies
(AB)(CD)C =dollar coin, 3 quarters, 1 dime, 3 pennies
Extra 1.12 There are 5 days in a work week. Give an example of a subset of size 4. Now say that for
this particular work week there is no work on Friday because of a holiday. What is the set
of days for this particular week? There are 14 proper subsets. Show why this is the case
using 2 different counting rules. Which sets of the 16 are missing?
(MTWR,TWRF,MWRF,MTWF,MTRF)
Particular week = MTWR
M,
T, W,
MW, MR, TW, TR, WR, MTW, MTR, MWR, WTR

R,4MT,


4
4
+
+
=
14
or 24 2 = 14.
1
2
3
and MTWR
Extra 1.13 100,000 people are polled. They are asked whether they use Facebook, Twitter, and Myspace. 10,000 use Twitter; 30,000 use Facebook; 5,000 use Myspace; 8,000 use Twitter and
Facebook; 2,000 use Twitter and Myspace; 4,000 use Facebook and Myspace; and 1,000 use
all 3. What percent of the people polled do not use any of the 3 networking tools? Knowing
that a person uses at least one of the networking tools, what is the probability that they
use Twitter? Knowing that they use Twitter and Facebook, what is the probability that
they do not also use Myspace?
68%, 10 of 32 or .3125, 7 of 8 or .875.
Extra 1.14 Suppose on a Friday night Jake has the options of going to the bar or going to Karens
apartment. He goes to the bar with a probability of .7. If he goes to the bar he can end up
in jail, a friends place, or back at home with probabilities of .1, .2, and .7 respectively. If he
goes to Karens, he will either stay or go back home. He stays with a probability of .2. Use
the law of partitions (combined with the general multiplication rule) to find the probability
that Jake is at home on Saturday morning. Find the probability he went to Karens given
that he is not home.
.7.7 + .3.8 = .73
.3.2 / .27 = .2222
Extra 1.15 Suppose we throw 2 fair dice. Let E denote the event that the sum of the dice is a 7. Let F
denote the event that the first die equals a 4. Let G be the event that the second die equals
a 3.
A. Calculate the probabilies P(E) and P(E | F). Are E and F independent?
P(E), P(F), and P(G) are all clearly 16 . P(E | F) is also 16 . The same is true for P(F |
E). Therefore, E and F are independent.
B. Calculate the probabilities P(F) and P(F | E). What can you tell from the results from
this part and the previous one?

See the previous answer

C. Calculate the probability P(E | F C ) and compare it with P(E). What can you say now?
See the lecture notes, If 2 events are independent, then so are any combination of those
events and their complements.
D. Are E and G independent? What about E and (F G)?
E and G are independent. The same logic behind E and F being independent applies
here. It may be helpful to draw the 6 by 6 table. E and (F G) are not independent.
There is only 1 in 36 ways that they could all happen together. So P(E F G) is
1
1
36 but their multiplicative probabilities is 216 .
Extra 1.16 There are n types of coupons, and each new one collected is independently of type i with
probability pi , where sumni=1 pi = 1. Suppose k coupons are to be collected. If A1 is the
event that there is at least one type 1 coupon among those collected and A2 is the event
that there is at least one type 2 coupon among those collected, find:
A. P(A1 )
Please note that use of the complement rule and of DeMorgans Laws are quite helpful
for this entire problem. The answer is 1 - (1-p1 )k .
B. P(A1 A2 )
The answer is 1 - (1-p1 - p2 )k .
C. P(A1 | A2 )
The answer is ugly. I will write the top and bottom separately. The bottom is 1 (1-p2 )k . The top uses DeMorgans 2nd Law. It is 1 - [(1-p1 )k + (1-p2 )k - (1-p1 - p2 )k ].
Extra 1.17 There are five people, A, B, C, D and E. You want to line them up but A and B need to
stay together. How many possible ways can we arrange these five people?
Treat A and B as 1 object. We have 4 objects to line up, so 4! = 24. Since there are 2 ways
to arrange A and B, the answer is 2*24 = 48.
Extra 1.18 Of the three-digit integers greater then 750, how many have at least two digits that are
equal to each other ?
I break this into 2 different groups by sets of 10. There are the sets of 10 that do not
start with the same number as the hundreds digit and there are the sets of 10 that do start
with the same number as the hundreds digit.
There are 22 of the first groups of 10. Each of these provides 2 numbers that have at least
2 digits the same.
The second group consists of 3 sets of 10. All of these 10 have at least 2 digits the same.
That gives us 22*2 + 3*10 = 74.
Extra 1.19 An assiduous student named Sam finds himself hungry at 2 A.M. on a Tuesday. This
unremitting undergraduate has become conscious of a considerable craving for Connies
pizza. Alas, he is nowhere near Chicago to fulfill such a phenomenal food fantasy. He has to
settle for 1 of 5 pizza places that still permits pie purchases. Each restaurant has 3 choices
for crust type: thin crust, regular, and deep dish. Additionally, a customer is allowed to
have at most 1 meat out of the 4 total choices and at most 1 vegetable out of the 5 for his
toppings. How many possible pizzas could the famished freshman feast on?
Use the BCR: 5*3*5*6 = 450.
Note that the last 2 are 5 and 6 not 4 and 5. This is because they say at most 1 which
could include the option of 0 such toppings, which has 1 possibility.

Extra 1.20 Ceteris paribus, how many possible pizzas are there if the places permit at most 2 meat
choices? For simplicity in parts b and c, assume no meat or vegetable can be used more
than once.
5*3*(5+4 C2 )*6 = 825
Extra 1.21 Ceteris paribus, how many possible pizzas are there if the places permit at most 2 meat
choices and any combination of vegetables?
5*3*11*(6+ 5 C2 + 5 C3 + 5 C4 + 5 C5 ) = 5280
Extra 1.22 A young man wants to plan a nice date for his girlfriend. He has the option of going to
Chicago, Indianapolis, or staying in Lafayette. If he chooses Chicago, he has 10 choices for
a play and 100 choices for a restaurant. If he opts for Indianapolis, he has 5 choices for a
play and 50 choices for a restaurant. If he remains in Lafayette, he only has 2 options for
a play and 20 choices for a restaurant. How many options does this gentleman have for a
romantic evening out?
10*100 + 5*50 + 2*20 = 1290
Extra 1.23 What about if we added the option of Fort Wayne and this particular city boasted 8 plays
and 75 restaurants?
1290 + 8*75 = 1890
Extra 1.24 Suppose you are in a room with 15 other people. Calculate the probability that no one has
the same birthday as another person in the room. Disregard February 29th. Now, consider
a standard STAT 225 class of 39 students. Calculate the probability that no student has
the same birthday as another person in the room.
The number of ways to assign birthdays distinctly is (365)N and the sample space is 365N
(365)15
So the probability for 15 people is
=.747099
36515
(365)39
=.12178
For 39 people the probability is
36539
Extra 1.25 Suppose there are 40 students in a classroom. There are 10 students in each class year
Freshmen, Sophomore, Junior, and Senior. The students are going to be paired up for a
project. What is the probability that every student pair is paired with another student of
the same class year?
40
40!
40!
The total sample space is (
) = 20 ordered pairs, so 20
unordered pairs
2, 2, 2, 2...2
2!
2 20!
10
10!
Now lets look at the assignment for a single class year: (
) = 5 ordered pairs,
2, 2, 2, 2, 2
2
10!
and 5 unordered pairs per class year
2 5!
10!
( 5 )4
9454
Thus the final result is: 2 5! =
=2.493E-12
40!
3.1983 1023
220 20!
Extra 1.26 Suppose there is a sadistic statistic student teacher. The sadistic statistic student teacher
prepares a preposterous problem set. Suppose that only sixteen percent of the stressedout students successfully satisfy the standard the first time. Suppose that the stressed-out
students that did not succeed in satisfying the statistics teachers standards only succeed
in satisfying said stipulations sixty percent of the time the second time through. Since

the statistics teacher is sadistic he suggests that those stunned students substantiate study
groups and strive for success a third time. These tired, tortured pupils are triumphant
thirty percent of the time. What percentage of pupils pass the problems posed? Given that
a student passed the problems, what is the probability that they did so the second time
through?
P(pass) = P(pass on try 1) + P(fail on try 1)*P(pass on try 2) + P(fail the first 2
tries)*P(Pass on try 3)
= .16 + .84*.6 + .336*.3 =.7648.
The second part is .84.6
.7648 = .6590.
Extra 1.27 An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are
accident-prone and those who are not. The companys statistics show that an accident-prone
person will have an accident at some time within a fixed 1-year period with probability .4.
However, this probability decreases to .2 for a person who is not accident-prone. If we assume
that 30% of the population is accident prone, what is the probability that a new policyholder
will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy? What is the probability that the
next 8 customers will not have an accident in their respective first years of coverage with
this company? Moreover, let us examine a new policyholder who has an accident within a
year of purchasing their policy. What is the probability that (s)he is accident-prone?
The probability of an accident is .3*.4 + .7*.2 = .26.
The next question is .748 or .0899.
The last one is .12 divided by .26 or .4615.
Extra 1.28 The Beardstown Bearcats baseball team plays 60% of its games at night. It wins 55% of its
night games but only 35% of its day games. You read in the paper that the Bearcats won
their last game against the Manteno Maulers. What is the probability that it was played at
night?
The top is .6*.55. The bottom is .6*.55 + .4*.35. The answer is .7021.
Extra 1.29 Kerry has her secretary, Ray, put her meetings in her calendar. Kerry only misses her
meetings if Ray forgets to put them in her calendar. 2% of the time Ray forgets to update
the calendar. 90% of the time that Kerry misses a meeting her boss, Matt, makes her stay
late. Even if Kerry makes her meeting, Matt still makes her stay late 5% of the time.
A. What is the probability that Kerry misses a meeting and Matt does not make her stay
late?
The answer is .02*.1 = .002.
B. What is the probability Matt does not make Kerry stay late?
The probability she does stay late is .02*.9 + .98*.05 = .067. So she does not stay late
with a probability of .933.
C. Given Matt made Kerry stay late, what is the probability that Kerry made the meeting?
The answer is .98*.05 divided by .067 so it is .7313.
D. What are the chances Kerry missed the meeting or Matt made her stay late?
The answer is .02 + .067 - .018 = .069.
Extra 1.30 Suppose that Bob can decide to go to work by one of three modes of transportation (car,
bus, or train). Because of high traffic, if he decides to go by car, there is a 50% chance he
will be late. If he goes by bus, the probability of being late is only 20%. The train is almost
never late, with a probability of only 1%, but it is more expensive.

A. Suppose that Bob is late one day and his boss wishes to estimate the probability that
he drove to work that day. Since he does not know which mode of transportation Bob
usually uses, he gives a prior probability of 31 to each of the three possibilities. What
is the boss estimate of the probability that Bob drove to work?
We wish to investigate the P(car | late). Let us first find P(late). P(late) = 13 *.5 +
1
1
3 *.2 + 3 *.01 = .2367.
The answer is .1667 divided by .2367 which is .7042.
B. Suppose that a coworker of Bobs knows that he almost always takes the train to work,
never takes the bus, but sometimes (10% of the time) takes the car. What is the
coworkers probability that Bob drove to work that day, knowing that Bob was late?
This depends on the probabilities of train and bus. I will assume that they are .9 and
0 respectively based on the set-up. Now, the new probability of late is .9*.01 + .1*.5
= .059. So the answer is .05 divided by .059 which is .8475.
Extra 1.31 James Bonds Poker Face is unreadable, so Le Chiffre is forced to simply use James Bonds
previous betting choices and hands to make educated determinations of what James might
have in has hand based on his bet. Past experience has shown that James will go all in
every time with a straight or better, will go all in 80% with a two pair or a three of a kind,
and will go all in 10% of the time with a pair or worse.
(a) What are the chances of obtaining a straight or better?

4
5









10 4
4 13
10 4
( 10

)
+
(

1
1
1
5
1
1 )+


P ( Straight) = 1 1
52
5

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

13
1

4

3

12
1

4

2

13
1

4

4

12
1

4

1

10
1

4

1

10, 200 + 5, 108 + 3, 744 + 624 + 40

19, 716
1, 643
=
=
=
= 0.0075861
2, 598, 960
2, 598, 960
216, 580
What are the chances of obtaining a two pair or a three of a kind?











13 4 2 11 4
13 4 12 4 2
123, 552 + 54, 912
2
2
1
1 + 1
3
2
1


=
P (2 P air 3 Kind) =
=
52
2, 598, 960
5
178, 464
286
=
0.068667467
2, 598, 960
4, 165
What are the chances of obtaining a pair or worse?
286
1, 643
200, 065
40, 013
P ( P air) = 1

=
=
0.923746422
4, 165 216, 580
216, 580
43, 316
What are the chances that James Bond will go all in on any given hand?
P (All In) = P ( Straight)P (All In| Straight)+P (2P air 3Kind)P (All
1, 643
286
In|2 P air 3 Kind) + P ( P air)P (All In| P air) =
1+

216, 580
4, 165
40, 013
16, 430 + 118, 976 + 200, 065
335, 471
0.8 +
0.1 =
=
0.154894727
43, 316
2, 165, 800
2, 165, 800
What are the chances that James Bond has a straight or better given James does not
go all in?
P ( Straight (All In)C )
P ( Straight)P ((All In)C | Straight)
P ( Straight|(AllIn)C ) =
=
C
P ((All In) )
1 P (All In)
1, 643
(1 P (All In| Straight))
16, 430
16, 430
216, 580
=
(1 1) =
0=0
335, 471
1, 830, 329
1, 830, 329
1
2, 165, 800

Extra 1.32 Everyone knows Lionel Messi is currently the best soccer player on the planet. However,
few know how he makes his decisions in determining how he can best help Barca score
on any given play. Without keeping his decisions as to whether to dribble, pass, or shoot
fairly randomized he would never score. Thus, on any given play he is equally likely to
either dribble then shoot, pass to a teammate who will then immediately shoot, or shoot
the ball immediately upon receiving the ball. The chances that Barca will score on each
given offensive choice are 0.08, 0.05, and 0.04 respectively.
(a) What are the chances Messi shoots the ball immediately upon receiving the ball and
scores?
1
1
P (OC = S Goal = Y es) = P (OC = S)P (Goal = Y es|OC = S) = 0.04 =
=
3
75
0.013
(b) What are the chances Barca will score on any given play when Messi receives the ball?
P (Goal = Y es) = P (OC = D)P (Goal = Y es|OC = D) + P (OC = P )P (Goal =
1
1
1
Y es|OC = P ) + P (OC = S)P (Goal = Y es|OC = S) = 0.08 + 0.05 + 0.04 =
3
3
3
17
= 0.056
300
(c) What are the chances Messi dribbled then shot given they did not score on the particular play?
P (OC = D)P (Goal = N O|OC = D)
P (OC = D Goal = N O)
=
=
P (OC = D|Goal = N O) =
P (Goal = N O)
1 P (Goal = Y es)
1
(1 P (Goal = Y es|OC = D))
300 1
92
3
=
(1 0.08) =
0.325088339
283 3
283
1 0.056
Extra 1.33 Suppose there are 15,000 undergraduates registered for the current semester at Purdue. 1000
are registered for 1 course, 2000 are registered for 2 courses, 8000 students are registered for
3 courses, and 4000 are registered for 4 courses. Construct the probability distribution for
the number of courses for which a student is registered. What is the probability that the
student chooses 2 or more courses?
Z
1
2
3
4

P(X 2) =

2
15

8
15

P(X)
1
15
2
15
8
15
4
15

4
15

Extra 1.34 Homer is playing in a two-part game. First, he must shoot a target. If he hits the target,
he receives a $20 reward, and then will be asked a 5-answer multiple-choice question. If he
answers the question correctly, he will be receive an additional $40. Assume that Homer
can hit the target with a 60% chance and has no clue about the question. Let X be the
Homers pay-out from the game, and find the PMF of X.
Extra 1.35 You and your buddy are sharing a bag of Skittles, and its down to the last 10 pieces. There
are now 5 green, 3 red, and 2 blue Skittles left. You decide to place the following bet: You
will choose two Skittles from the bag without replacement. You will win $5 for every blue
Skittle, $2 for every green Skittle, and you will lose $1 for every red Skittle. If X is the

Case
Hit, Correct
Hit, Incorrect
Miss

X
60
20
0

P(X)
P(Hit)P(Correct | Hit) = .5(1/5) = .12
P(Hit)P(Incorrect | Hit) = .6(4/5) = .48
.4

amount of money you will win, construct the PMF of X. What is the probability you will
win at least $5? Given that you won something, what is the probability it will be at least
$5?
P(X 5) =

2
9

1
45

= .244

P(X 5 | X > 0) = P(X 5) / P(X > 0) = .244 / (1-(1/15)) = .262

What is the expected amount of money you will win? What is the variance of your winnings?
Case
GG
GR
GB
RR
RB
BB

X
4
1
7
-2
4
10

P(X)
(5/10)(4/9)=2/9
2*(5/10)(3/9)=1/3
2*(5/10)(2/9)=2/9
(3/10)(2/9)=1/15
2*(3/10)(2/9)=2/15
(2/10)(1/9)=1/45

E(X) = 4(2/9) + 1(1/3) + 7(2/9) 2(1/15) + 4(2/15) + 10(1/45) = 3.4.

V ar(X) = (2/9)(4 3.4)2 (1/3)(1 3.4)2 + (2/9)(7 3.4)2 + (1/15)(2 3.4)2 + (2/15)(4
3.4)2 + (1/45)(10 3.4)2 = 7.84
Extra 1.36 Suppose that one word is to be selected at random from the sentence The girl put on her
beautiful red hat. If X denotes the number of letters in the word that is selected, what is
the value of E(X)? What is the value of Var(X)?
Words
the, put, her, red, hat
girl
on
beautiful

X
3
4
2
9

P(X)
5/8
1/8
1/8
1/8

E(X) = 3(5/8) + 4(1/8) + 2(1/8) + 9(1/8) = 3.75

Var(X) = 4.1875
Suppose that one letter is to be selected at random from the sentence. If Y denotes the
number of letters in the word in which the selected letter appears, what is the value of E(Y)?
What is the value of Var(Y)?
The words in the sentence have the following number of letters: 3, 4, 3, 2, 3, 9, 3, 3, making
up a total of 30 letters.
E(Y) = 3(15/30)+4(4/30) + 2(2/30) + 9(9/30) = 4.87
Var(Y) = 7.52

Y
3
4
2
9

P(Y)
15/30
4/30
2/30
9/30

Extra 1.37 Suppose that a person types 5 letters, types the addresses on 5 corresponding envelopes, and
then places each letter in an envelope in a random manner. Let X be the number of letters
that are placed in the correct envelope. Construct the PMF of X and find its expectation.
X
0
1
2
3
4
5

P(X)
1 P (X 1) = .36
533
5! = .375
(52)2
5! = .16
(53)
5! = .083
0
1
5! = .0083

E(X) = 1*P(X=1) + 2*P(X=2) + 3*P(X=3) + 4*P(X=4) + 5*P(X=5) = 1

Extra 1.38 In a dice game, the player rolls a die. If he gets a one or two, he stops. If he gets any
other number, the player gets a point and rolls one more time. If he gets a one or two on
the second roll, he stops; any other number and he adds one more point and his turn is
over. What is the probability of getting zero points? one point? two points? What is the
expected value of the game?
E(X) = 1(2/9) + 2(4/9) = 10/9
Extra 1.39 Your friend, Fiona, upon graduation submits her resume to numerous corporations all over
the country. 80% of students with records similar to hers have been accepted to positions in
San Fransisco, CA, which yield salaries of $120K, $100K, and $80K all with equal probability.
If she gets a position in San Fransisco (SF), no matter the Salary (S), she will take it. Else,
she will take her fall back of a guaranteed position in Indianapolis, IN that will pay $80K.
(a) What are the chances Fionas will be $80K?
1
P (S = 80K) = P (SF )P (S = 80K|SF ) + P (IN ) P (S = 80K|IN ) = 0.8 +
3
4
19
7
C
P (SF ) 1 =
+ (1 P (SF )) =
0.8 =
= 0.46
15
15
15
(b) What is Fionas expected Salary (S)?
E[S] = 80, 000 P (S = 80K) + 100, 000 P (S = 100K) + 120, 000 P (S = 120K) =
7
20, 000[4
+ 5 P (SF ) P (S = 100K|SF ) + 6 P (SF ) P (S = 120K|SF )] =
15
X
0
1
2

P(X)
P(roll 1 or 2) = 1/3
P(roll 3,4,5,6, then roll 1 or 2) = (2/3)(1/3) = 2/9
P(roll 3,4,5,6 on both rolls) = (2/3)(2/3) = 4/9

28
1
1
28 4 8
+ 5 0.8 + 6 0.8 ) = 20, 000( + + ) =$96, 000
15
3
3
15 3 5
(c) What is the variability in Fionas potential Salary (S)?
V ar[S] = E[S 2 ] E[S]2 = 80, 0002 P (S = 80K) + 100, 0002 P (S = 100K) +
1
7
+ 52 (0.8 ) + 62 (0.8
120, 0002 P (S = 120K) 96, 0002 = 20, 0002 [42
15
3
1
7
4
4
)] 9, 216, 000, 000 = 400, 000, 000[16
+ 25
+ 36 ] 9, 216, 000, 000 =
3
15
15
15
4, 160, 000, 000
2
=$ 277, 333, 333.3
15
(d) Fiona told you that unfortunately she is only making $80K. What are the chances
Fiona is fortunate enough to be working in San Fransisco (SF)?
P (SF S = 80K)
P (SF )P (S = 80K|SF ))
15
1
P (SF |S = 80K) =
=
=
0.8 =
7
P (S = 80K)
7
3
15
4
= 0.571428
7
20, 000(

Extra 1.40 On St. Patricks Day you decide to go on a Bar Crawl. In your drunken haze, a rainbow
unveils a tiny pot of gold and fools gold protected by a leprechaun in front of Nine Irish
Brothers. At this time, the leprechaun tells you There is 2 gold coin and 5 fools gold
coins not that you are astute enough to tell the difference! HEHAHEHA!!! The gold coin is
worth $500 and fools gold coins are worth $2 in value. You persistently grab one coin at
a time until the leprechaun tells you that you have grabbed the gold coin. At this point in
time the leprechaun notifies you that you have grabbed the gold coin and you stop pulling
out coins and leave with the coins you had pulled out from the pot. Let X the number
of coins pulled out of the pot.
(a) Construct the Probability Mass Function (PMF) for X.
x P(X = x)
2
1
= 0.285714
7
5 2
5
2
=
= 0.238095
7 6
21
5 4 2
4
3
=
= 0.190476
7 6 5
21
5 4 3 2
1
4
= = 0.142857
7 6 5 4
7
5 4 3 2 2
2
5
=
= 0.095238
7 6 5 4 3
21
5 4 3 2 1 2
1
=
= 0.047619
6
7 6 5 4 3 2
21
(b) What is the expected number of coins that will be pulled out from this experiment?
2
5
4
1
2
1
8
E[X] = 1 + 2
+3
+4 +5
+6
= = 2.6
7
21
21
7
21
21
3
(c) What is the variance $-value from this experiment?
V ar[500 + 2 (X 1)] = V ar[2X + 498] = 22 V ar[X] + 0 = 4(E[X 2 ] E[X]2 ) =
2
5
4
1
2
1
82
80
4([12 + 22
+ 32
+ 42 + 5 2
+ 62 ] ) =
= 8.8
7
21
21
7
21
21
3
9

Discrete Random Variables

Extra 2.1 A computer program generates a random integer between 1 and 800. This number is then
rounded to the nearest 100 (including 0) and output as the random variable T . Find the
probability mass function (PMF) of T .
The possible values of T are 0, 100, 200, . . ., 700, 800. Let X represent the hidden integer.
1
. We need to
The probability that X equals any specific number from 1 to 800 is 800
determine what values of X would result in the event T = 0. Since only the integers from
1 to 49 will round down to 0, we get the following:
49
P
1
P (X = i) = 49* 800
P(T = 0) =
= 0.06125
i=1

To find P(T = 100), we need to determine which values of X would round to 100. Any
x-value from 50 to 149 would round to 100, so we get
149
P
1
P (X = i) = 100* 800
P(T = 100) =
= 0.125
i=50

This would also equal the probability that T = 200, T = 300, T = 400, T = 500, T = 600,
and T = 700. For the sake of brevity, we will omit these summations. Only the limits of
the sum would change.
To find P = 800, we need to determine which values of X round off to 800. This would
include all x-values from 750 to 800, or 51 different integers.
The PMF of the random variable T is given below. (The column format is a little more
aesthetically pleasing.)
t
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800

pT (t)
0.06125
0.12500
0.12500
0.12500
0.12500
0.12500
0.12500
0.12500
0.06375

Extra 2.2 Let Y be a discrete random variable with PMF described by the function below
(
(y+2)2
if y = 1, 0, 1, 2
30
pY (y) =
0
otherwise
(a) Verify that Y has a legitimate PMF.
P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2) =
1.
Also, we note there are no negative probabilities.

1
2
30 (1

+ 22 + 32 + 42 ) =

(b) What is the probability that Y is positive? (note: 0 is not positive)

1
P(Y > 0) = P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2) = 30
(9 + 16) = 0.8333.
(c) If we are given Y is positive, what is the probability that Y is 2?
16
P(Y =2) = 30
16
P(Y = 2|Y > 0) = P
9+16 = 25 = 0.64
(Y >0)
30

1
30

30 =

(d) Let Z = |Y |, find the PMF of Z

z
pZ (z)

4
30

10
30

16
30

Extra 2.3 The random variable U follows the PMF


pU (u) =

k (5 u) if u = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
0
otherwise

Find the value of k and the probability that U is any of 2, 3, or 4.

The only values of U with a positive probability are 1, 2, 3, and 4. (Since P(U = 5) = 0,
there is no reason to include 5 in the problem.). We find k by using the fact that all of the
probabilities must sum to 1. P(U = 1) + P(U = 2) + P(U = 3) + P(U = 4) = 1
4k + 3k + 2k + k = 1
1
k = 10
= 0.10. We then go back and determine the probability of each possible value of U .
P(U = 1) = 0.40; P(U = 2) = 0.30; P(U = 3) = 0.20; P(U = 4) = 0.10
P(U = 2, 3, or4) = 0.30 + 0.20 + 0.10 = 0.60
Extra 2.4 The discrete random variable X has a PMF described by the table below.
x
pX (x)

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

2
7

2
7

1
7

2
7

(a) Find the expected value and variance of X.

E(X) = 0.25* 72 + 0.50* 27 + 0.75* 17 + 1.00* 72 = 0.6071
E(X 2 ) = 0.0625* 27 + 0.2500* 27 + 0.5625* 17 + 1.00* 27 = 0.4554
Var(X) = E(X 2 ) - [E(X)]2 = 0.08678
(b) Let W = 10X + 5. Find the expected value and variance of W .
E(W ) = 10*E(X) + 5 = 10*0.6071 + 5 = 11.071
Var(W ) = 100*Var(X) = 100*0.08678 = 8.678
Extra 2.5 Let Y be a discrete random variable with PMF described by the function below
(
pY (y) =

(y+1)3
405

if y = 3, 4, 5
otherwise

(a) Find the expected value and variance of Y .

64
216
1772
E(Y ) = 3* 405
+ 4* 125
405 + 5* 405 = 405 = 4.375
125
216
64
2
E(Y ) = 9* 405 + 16* 405 + 25* 405 = 7976
405 = 19.694
2
2
Var(Y ) = E(Y ) - [E(Y )] = 0.5532

(b) Let W = 5 2Y . Find the expected value and variance of W .

E(W ) = 5 - 2*E(Y ) = 5 - 2*4.375 = -3.75
Var(W ) = 4*Var(Y ) = 2.2128

Extra 2.6 A special deck of cards consists of two sets of spades and one set of hearts - a total of 39
cards. The cards are randomly shuffled and the top two are taken off the top of the deck.
The random variable S represents the number of spades among these two cards. Find the
PMF of S.
The discrete random variable, S, may only assume
the values 0,1, and 2. Since the two


39
cards are drawn at the same time, there are 2 , or 741 different two-card draws from this
deck.


Number of draws with no spades (S = 0) = 13
2 = 78.
78
P(S = 0) = 741
=0.1053.

26

Number of draws with one spade (S = 1) = 13
1 1 = 338.
338
P(S = 1) = 741
=0.4561.


Number of draws with two spades (S = 2) = 26
2 = 325.
P(S = 2) = 325
741 =0.4386.
s
pS (s)

0
0.1053

1
0.4561

2
0.4386

Extra 2.7 Alice, Beverly, and Earl are considering going to the movies one afternoon. Alice will go with
probability 0.70. If Alice goes, Beverly and Earl will both go with probability 0.80 or both
not go with probability 0.20. If Alice does not go, Beverly and Earl decide independently
with probabilities 0.50 and 0.30, respectively, of going. Find the PMF for the number of
these three who attend the movie.
Let F be the number of friends going to the movie. The possible values of F are 0, 1, 2,
and 3. Let A, B, and E represent the events of Alice, Bev, and Earl going to the movies,
respectively. If F = 3, then Alice, Bev, and Earl all went. The probability of this occurring
is found as follows (recall that Alice will decide first):
P(F = 3) = P(B E|A)*P(A) = 0.80*0.70 = 0.560. If F = 2, then Bev and Earl went
while Alice stayed home. (No other combinations work.) However, if Alice does not go, Bev
and Earl decide independently. The probability of this event is calculated as follows.
P(F = 2) = P(B E|Ac )* P(Ac ) = P(B|Ac )*P(E|Ac )*P(Ac ) = 0.50*0.30*0.30 = 0.045
If F = 1, then any of the three of them could have went. We can find this by subtraction
later, but finding it directly is not that hard.
P(F = 1) = P(only Alice goes) + P(only Bev goes) + P(only Earl goes)
P(only Alice goes) = P(B c E c |A)* P(A) = 0.20*0.70 = 0.140
P(only Bev goes) = P(B|Ac )*P(E c |Ac )*P(Ac ) = 0.50*(1 - 0.30)*0.30 = 0.105.
P(only Earl goes) = P(B c |Ac )*P(E|Ac )*P(Ac ) = (1 - 0.50)*0.30*0.30 = 0.045.
P(F = 1) = 0.140 + 0.105 + 0.045 = 0.290
Finally, if F = 0, then none of the three went.
P(F = 0) = P(B c |Ac )*P(E c |Ac )*P(Ac ) = (1 - 0.50)*(1 - 0.30)*0.30 = 0.105.
The PMF of F is expressed in the table below.
f
pF (f )

0
0.105

1
0.290

2
0.045

3
0.560

Extra 2.8 While visiting a foreign city, you are presented with the following game. The game has three
rounds of rolling a fair die. If you get a 1 on the first roll, you win $12 and the game ends.
If you do not win on the first roll, then if you roll a 2 on the second roll, you win you $9

and the game ends. If you still have not won, you get one last chance. If you get a 3 on
the final roll, you win $6. This game costs $4. Assume profitability is your only concern.
Should you play?
Expected winnings = 12* 16 + 9* 56

1
6

+ 6*( 56 )2

1
6

= 3.944 < 4.00 = Cost Stay away!

Extra 2.9 You are offered the following game, but certainly not for free. You draw one card from a
well-shuffled deck. If it is the King of Spades, you win $10. If it is any other King, you win
$2. If it is any other Spade, you win $1. Nothing else pays. What is the only fair price to
play this game? (For a game to be fair, E(X) = 0).
Let W represent your winnings in dollars from this game. There are 52 cards, each equally
likely to be drawn. One of these cards will result in the event W = 10, three cards will
result in the event W = 2, and twelve cards will result in the event W = 1. The remaining
thirty-six cards will result in the event W = 0. The PMF of the random variable W is
below.
w
pW (w)

10

36
52

12
52

3
52

1
52

The expected value of W represents the long-term average of many plays of this game.
Therefore, this would be the only fair price to charge for the game. We find the expected
value as below, dismissing terms that we know are 0.
3
1
28
E(W ) = 1* 12
52 + 2* 52 + 10* 52 = 52 = 0.5384.
Hence the only fair price is approximately $0.5384. Note that this is an impractical price
- one way to make this remotely plausible is to offer the game 13 times for a price of $7.
Extra 2.10 Linda is trying to determine how much to budget for an upcoming convention. There is an
upfront cost of $250 for the booth the company will sponsor, as well as a per person cost of
$80. She will definitely attend. Three others might also attend, but have not committed.
She estimates the probabilities of none of them going to be 0.20, of one going to be 0.30,
and doesnt see any way that only two of the three will go. Calculate the expected value
and the variance of the cost of attending this conference.
Let X represent the total number of people attending the convention, including Linda. We
need to find the PMF of X, and then the expected value and variance of X.
P(X = 1) = 0.20; P(X = 2) = 0.30; P(X = 4) = 0.50
E(X) = 1*0.20 + 2*0.30 + 4*0.50 = 2.80
E(X 2 ) = 1*0.20 + 4*0.30 + 16*0.50 = 9.40
Var(X) = 1.56
Let Y represent the total cost of attending the convention. From the problem we have
Y = 250 + 80 X.
E(Y ) = 250 + 80*E(X) = 474
Var(Y ) = 6400*1.56 = 9984
Although it was not requested, the standard deviation of Y is 99.91. The standard deviation
is in the same units (dollars) as the original variable.
Extra 2.11 You are playing the lottery and you have to choose 6 #s from 1-53 all correct to win the
jackpot. All the numbers are chosen from the same bin without replacement.
(a) What is the name of the distribution and the parameters?
6
XHypergeometric(N=53,n=6,p= )
53

(b) What is the Probability that you get 4 or more of the numbers correct?
P(X4)=.000719
(c) If a lottery ticket costs $15 and the payouts of the lottery are $32numbercorrectballs is a
lottery ticket a good investment?
P
E(Net Profit)=E(Money Won)-15= 6x=0 32x p(x)=29.1961-15=14.1961
Yes it is a good investment.
Extra 2.12 Suppose you go trick or treating for Halloween and come back with a big haul of 75 assorted
candies in your pillowcase. As snickers are your favorite candy bar you keep track of the 15
snickers you received throughout the night. If you grab a handful of 7 candy bars and X is
the number of snicker bars.
(a) What is the distribution and parameter(s) of X?
15
XHypergeometric(N=75,n=7,p= )
75
(b) What is the probability that you got at most 2 snickers bars?
P(X2)=.861849
(c) Say instead you and 6 friends went out and came back with a pillow case of 75 assorted
candies each containing 15 snickers bars each. If each of you pick out a single candy
bar, let Y denote the number of snickers bars chosen out of you and your friends. What
is the distribution and parameter(s) of Y?
15
YBinomial(n=7,p= )
75
(d) Now what is the probability that there are at most 2 snickers bars?
P(Y2)=.851968
(e) Now lets say you know that 80% of all people like snickers bars. If you ask your
neighbor if they like snickers, let W be their response. What is the distribution and
parameter(s) of W?
WBernoulli(p=.8)
(f) What is the probability that 5 or more of you and your friends like snickers bars?
Since W is Bernoulli and there are 7 responses you get a distribution of W7 Binomial(n=7,p=.8)
P(W7 5) = .851968
Extra 2.13 Lets say you are giving out candy for Halloween and 49 people show up every 3 hrs on
average. Let X be the number of people that show up in a 30 minute time span.
(a) What is the name and distribution of X?
49
XPoisson(= )
6
(b) What is the probability that at least 7 people show up in the thirty minute time span?
P
P(X7) = 1 - 6k=0 p(x)=.706555
Extra 2.14 Suppose you are sending a text and you make an error causing an auto-correct fix at rate
1
= per text. Suppose that your friend only sends a message asking for clarification if you
8
send a text with 4 or more auto-correct fixes in it.
(a) What is the probability that you send a text that requires your friend to send a message
back for clarification?
1
Let XPoisson(= ) where X is the number of autocorrects in a single message. Then
8
the resulting probability is P(X4) = 1-P(X3) = .000009

(b) Say you send 30 messages each independent of each other, what is the expected number
of messages that your friend would want clarified?
Since the probability that each text message sent requires an autocorrect is distributed
as Bernoulli(p=.000009) then the question results as E(Bin(n=30, p=.000009))=.000276
Extra 2.15 A man claims to be a psychic. As a test, a fair coin was flipped 20 times and he got 17 of
the 20 correct.
(a) What is the probability that he did this well if he had no psychic abilities?
P(Bin(n=20,p=.5)=17)=.001087
(b) What is the expected number of correct guesses if someone were to just randomly
answer?
Since the distribution is just Binomial(n=20,p=.5) E(Bin(n=20, p=.5))= 10
(c) Suppose he repeated this same result for 3 more identical independent tests, what is
the probability of that happening?
Each test has a resulting probability of .001087 which is a Bernoulli(p=.001087) variable
thus resulting in Bin(n=3,p=.001087) and the P(Bin(n=3,p=.001087)=3)=1.28503E-9
Extra 2.16 Suppose that a telephone is wrongly called on average 3 times a day. Let X be the number
of wrong calls to that telephone in a given day.
(a) What is the name and parameter(s) of this distribution?
XPoi(=3)
(b) What is the probability of receiving more than 5 wrong calls in a day?
P(X6) = 1 - P(X5)=.083918
(c) Consider a good day defined as when there are at most 2 wrong calls. What is the
probability of a good day?
P(Good Day) = P(X2) = .42319
(d) What is the probability of there being 4 good days in the next week?
Since probability of a good day is Bernoulli(.42319) then the P(4 good days next week)
= P(Bin(n=7,p=.42319)=4) = .215431
Extra 2.17 Three men shoot at a target. The first man shoots three times, and the probability he hits
the target on any given shot is 1/8. The second man shoots five times, and the probability
he hits the target on any given shot is 1/4. The third man shoots five times, and the
probability he hits the target on any given shot is 1/2. Let A, B, and C denote the number
of times the three men successfully hit the target, respectively.
(a) Name the distributions of A, B, and C.
A is Bin(n=3, p=1/8), B is Bin(n=5, p=1/4), C is Bin(n=5, p=1/2)
(b) What is the expected total number of times that the target will be hit?
E[A+B+C] = E[A] + E[B] + E[C] = 3 81 + 5 14 + 5 12 = 33
8 = 4.125
(c) Assume that each mans shots at the target are independent. What is the variance of
the total number of times that the target will be hit?
Var[A+B+C] = Var[A] + Var[B] + Var[C] = 3 81 78 + 5 14 34 + 5 12 12 = 2.5156
(d) What is the probability that the first man (A) hits the target at least once?
P(A 1) = 1 - P(A=0) = 1 - ( 87 )3 = 0.3301

(e) What is the probability that the second man (B) hits the target an even number of
times (not including zero number of times)?




P(B=2) + P(B=4) = 52 ( 14 )2 ( 34 )3 + 54 ( 14 )4 ( 43 ) = .2783
Extra 2.18 Suppose that a box contains 5 red balls and 10 blue balls. 7 balls are selected without
replacement. Let X denote the number of red balls that will be obtained.
(a) What is the distribution of X?
X is Hypergeometric(N=15, n=7, m=5)
(b) What is the probability that at least 3 red balls will be obtained?
(5)(10) (5)(10) (5)(10)
P(X 3) = P(X=3) + P(X=4) + P(X=5)= 3 15 4 + 4 15 3 + 5 15 2 = 0.4266
(7)
(7)
(7)
(c) Now suppose the 7 balls are selected with replacement. Let Y be the number of blue
balls selected. What is the distribution of Y? What is the probability of selecting
between 5 and 7 blue balls, inclusive?
Y is Binomial(n=7, p=2/3)




P(Y=5)+P(Y=6)+P(Y=7) = 75 ( 23 )5 ( 31 )2 + 76 ( 23 )6 ( 13 ) + ( 23 )7 = 0.5706
Extra 2.19 Jack is trying to take the driving test to get his drivers license. If the probability of passing
a test is 40% which remains the same no matter how many times he takes it, answer the
following questions.
(a) What is the probability that it takes him two times to pass the test?
(b) If one can only take the driving test 5 times within six months, what is the probability
that Jack will get his drivers license within six months?
(c) Suppose Jack has taken the test 4 times over the six-month period and still has not
gotten the license, what is his chance of getting the drivers license within six months
starting from his first attempt?
(d) Though one can take the driving test 5 times within a six-month period, he/she can take
it until getting licensed. How many tests is Jack expected to take to get the license?
What is the standard deviation of the number of tests Jack takes to get licensed?

(a) Let X = numberof testsJacktakestogethisdriver0 slicense, then we have:

X Geo(p = 0.4)
So the answer is: P (X = 2) = (1 p)p = 0.6 0.4 = 0.24.
(b) P (X 5) =

5
X
x=1

pX (x) =

5
X

x1

(1 p)

x=1

p=

5
X

(0.6x1 0.4) 0.9222

x=1

(c) This is P(X 5 | X > 4). Since the geometric has a memoryless property, this becomes
P(X 1) = .4
(d) Use the formula of expectation and variance for a Geometric r.v., we have
E[X] =
X =

1
= 2.5
0.4
r

p
V ar(X) =

1 0.4
1.94
0.42

Extra 2.20 An American roulette wheel has 38 slots: 18 are red, 18 are black, and 2 are green. Suppose
that you observe red on 10 consecutive spins. Give the conditional distribution of the
number of additional spins needed for black to occur.
Solution:
Also a Geometric r.v.
Extra 2.21 Pat is required to sell candy bars to raise money for the 6th grade field trip. There are
thirty houses in the neighborhood, and Pat is not supposed to return home until five candy
bars have been sold. So the child goes door to door, selling candy bars. At each house,
there is a 0.4 probability of selling one candy bar and a 0.6 probability of selling nothing.
(a) Whats the probability mass function for selling the last candy bar at the nth house?
(b) Whats the probability that Pat finishes on the tenth house?
(c) Whats the probability that Pat exhausts all 30 houses in the neighborhood?
Solution:
In this problem, selling candy bars at a house is a trial. If Pat sold a candy bar at a house,
it is a success with probability 0.4. Otherwise, its a failure. Since there are thirty houses,
we have thirty trials and they are independent.
(a) The random variable here is the number of house Pat has to visit in order to sell 5
candy bars. Denote it by X, then we have
X N Bin(r = 5, p = 0.4)
So its pmf is given by following function:


n1
P (X = n) =
(0.6)n5 (0.4)5
51


10 1
(b) P (X = 10) =
(0.6)105 (0.4)5 0.1003
51
(c) Note this relation: P (P at exhausts all 30 houses) = P (X 30). It is true because if
Pat visited all the 30 houses in the neighborhood, then either he sold the fifth candy
bar to the 30th house or he failed to sell five candy bars. So we have:
P (X 30) = 1 P (X < 30) = 1

29
X

P (X = n)

n=5

The reason why the summation starts from n = 5 is that 5 is the minimum number
of houses Pat has to visit in order to sell five candy bars. You are not required to
compute the value of the probability. It is 1-.997798 = .002202.
Extra 2.22 Find the expected value and the variance of the number of times one must throw a fair,
six-sided die until the outcome 1 has occurred 4 times.
Solution:
By using the formula of expectation and variance for a Negative Binomial r.v., we have:
r
4
=
= 24
p
1/6
r(1 p)
4(1 1/6)
V ar(X) =
=
= 120
2
p
(1/6)2
E[X] =

Extra 2.23 Two players, A and B, are playing a card game. They start with a deck of 26 cards with
all clubs and diamonds removed. A will deal 13 cards at random to B and A wins if he gets
more Aces than B. If both A and B get one Ace, the one with the Ace of Spades wins. They
repeat the game 10 times.
(a) Find the probability that A wins 6 times.
(b) If they repeat the game 100 times, how many times do you expect B to win?
Solution:
(a) Define X = number of Aces in A0 s hand, then we know
X HG(26, 13, 2)
Each time, A wins when he has two Aces or spade Ace. Lets find the probability for
each case.
  
2 24
2 11
(i) If A has two Aces, P (X = 2) =   = 0.24
26
13
   
24
26
(ii) If A only has the spade Ace, the probability is
/
= 0.26
12
13
Then P (Awins) = 0.24 + 0.26 = 0.5 for each time.
In order to find the probability that A wins 6 times, lets define Y = number of times A wins.
Then
Y Bin(10, p = 0.5)
So, P (Y = 6) =

10
6

(0.5)1 0 = 0.205.

(b) This question requires you to calculate the expectation of a Binomial r.v.
Bin(100, 0.5). So the answer is E[Z] = 50.

Extra 2.24 There are 10 independent sections of STAT225 and each section has 40 students. From
previous experience, on average, 10 students in each section will get an A. If the number of
students getting an A follows a Poisson distribution and the probability of getting an A is
equal for all sections, answer the following questions
(a) What is the probability that there are 100 As in this course?
(b) What is the probability that half of the sections have less than 10 As?
Solution:

(a) Lets define the r.v.s Xi = numberof studentswhogetAinith section and X = numberof studentswhogetA
Then we know
Xi P ois(10)
so
X P ois(100)
Then the desired probability P (X = 100) =

100100 e100
= 0.0399
100!

(b) First, calculate P (less than 10 A0 s) for each section. By using the previous definition,
we have
P (Xi < 10) =

9
X

P (Xi = n) = 0.4579

n=0

Then, lets define Y = number of the sections have less than 10 As, which follows
Bin(10, p = 0.4579). The desired probability is
 
10
P (Y = 5) =
(0.4579)5 (1 0.4579)5 = 0.2375
5
Extra 2.25 A daily lottery game involves the drawing of three digits, labeled 1 through 11, independently
and with replacement. A triple occurs when all three digits drawn on that day are the same.
Let X be the number of days that the game is played before observing the first triple.
(a) Name the distribution of X and find the numerical values of its parameter(s).
X is Geometric. Its parameter, p, is the probability that all three digits drawn are the
1 1
same, which is 1 11
11 = .008264.
(b) What is the expected number of days before the first triple is observed? What is the
variance?
E[X] =

1
1
121

= 121, Var[X]=

120
121
1 2
121

= 14520

(c) The expected number of days before observing the first triple has just passed, and still
no triple. What is the probability it takes a total of at most 128 days before observing
that first triple?
1 7
P (X 128|X > 121) = P (X 7) = 1 P (X > 7) = 1 (1 121
) = .0564
(d) In 250 days of playing the lottery game, what is the probability that a triple comes up
8 times?

1 8 120 242
This distribution, call it Y, is Bin(n=250, p=.008264). P(Y=8)= 250
=.0009872
8 ( 121 ) ( 121 )
(e) Is there an approximation to your answer in part d?
1
Since n > 100 and p < .01, we can approximate our answer with Poisson(=250( 121
)=2.06612)
Extra 2.26 A clinical study originally involved 3430 patients, half of which were in the placebo group.
Doctors wanted to reexamine just the patients who received a placebo, and sampled 25
patients out of that group. Out the 1715 patients who received the placebo, 990 were
diseased, and 725 were healthy.
(a) Let X be the number of diseased patients sampled. What is the distribution of X?
X is Hypergeometric(N=1715, n=25, m=990)
(b) What is the probability that 15 of the patients sampled will be diseased?
(990)(725)
P(X=15) = 15171510 = .1580
( 25 )
(c) Is an approximation appropriate for your answer to part b)? If so, calculate the approximate probability for the question in part b). If not, state why.
990
N>20n, so we can approximate X as Bin(n=25, p= 1715
=.577).


25
15
10
P(X=15)= 15 (.577) (1 .577) =.1569

Extra 2.27 From past experience it is known that 3% of accounts in a large accounting population are
in error. (Assume the firm is so big that sampling is done with replacement since sampling
the same account has such as small probability.)
a. What is the probability that 5 accounts are audited before an account in error is found?
0.02656
b. What is the probability that the first account in error occurs in the first five accounts
audited? 0.1413
For detailed solutions, see Example 7.3
Extra 2.28 An oil company conducts a geological study that indicates that an exploratory oil well should
have a 20% chance of striking oil.
a. What is the probability that the first strike comes on the third well drilled? X is
geo(p=.2). Want P(X = 3) = .2*.82 = 0.128
b. What is the probability that the third

strike comes on the seventh well drilled? Y is
NB(r=3, p=.2). Want P(Y=7) = 62 .23 .84 = 0.049
c What is the mean and variance of the number of wells that must be drilled if the oil
company wants to set up three producing wells? It is the NB in part b. Use pr and
r(1p)
p2

to get the mean is 15, variance is 60

Extra 2.29 A representative from the National Football Leagues Marketing Division randomly selects
people on a random street in Kansas City, Kansas until he finds a person who attended the
last home football game. Let p, the probability that he succeeds in finding such a person,
be a constant 0.20. Let X denote the number of people he selects until he finds his first
success.
a. What is the probability that the marketing representative must select 4 people before
he finds one who attended the last home football game? X is geo(p=.2) again. P(X =
4) = .2*.83 = 0.1024
b. What is the probability that the marketing representative must select more than 6
people before he finds one who attended the last home football game? P(X > 6) = .86
= 0.262
c. How many people should we expect (that is, what is the average number) the marketing
representative needs to select before he finds one who attended the last home football
game? And, while were at it, what is the variance? Using p1 and 1p
the mean value
p2
is 5 variance is 20.
Extra 2.30 Five percent (5%) of Christmas tree light bulbs manufactured by a company are defective.
The companys Quality Control Manager is quite concerned and therefore randomly samples
100 bulbs coming off of the assembly line. Let X denote the number in the sample that
are defective. What is the probability that the sample contains at most three defective
bulbs? Is an approximation appropriate here? What is the approximate probability if it is
appropriate? exact X Bin(n=100, p=.05). Want P(X 3) = 0.25784. approximate NA
because p > .01
Extra 2.31 An urn contains 50 marbles (35 green and 15 white). Fifteen marbles are selected without
replacement.

a. Find the probability that exactly 10 out of the 15 selected are green marbles. Uses
Hyp(N=50, n=15, M=35). Want P(X=10) is 0.245
b. Now, select without replacement only 2 marbles. Compute the exact probability that
1 green marble is obtained. Uses Hyp(N=50, n=2, M=35). Want the probability this
is 1, which is 0.42857
c. What is the approximate probability of obtaining 1 green marble using Binomial? Since
N=50 is > 20n = 40, the approximation is fine. Using Bin(n=2, p=.7) we want the
probability of 1 which is .42
Extra 2.32 During the noon lunch hour, 47 customers will walk through the door of the central post
office. Assume that each person arrives at a random time, independent of the other customers. What is the probability that more than one person walks through the door during
the first minute?
Let X Bin(n=47, p=1/60) which really uses a uniform distribution in there. Not sure
this is appropriate here. Want P(X 2) = 1 - P(X 1) = 1 -P(X is 0 or 1) = 0.1845645
Extra 2.33 Chris and Amber are playing in a Euchre tournament. There are 3 other teams (call them
A, B, and C). The probability that they win a game just depends on their opponents. They
will beat the other teams with respective probabilities of .75, .6, and .45. The bracket is
filled out at random. In order to win a round of the tournament you must win at least 4
games out of 7.
What is the probability that Chris and Amber win their first round?
Given their opponent, the number of games they win is binomial with n=7 and p either
.75, .6, or .45. In each case you want P(4 or more wins).
These are .9294, .7102, and .3917 resepctively.
The answer then 13 (.9294 + .7102 + .3917) = .6771
Suppose for simplicity the other teams have an equal chance of beating each other.
What is the probability that Chris and Amber win the tournament?
You could do this one of two ways. After round 1 you could then look at who they are
playing in round 2. Then there are 6 different outcomes. You take those probabilities,
add them up, and divide by six.
The second way is to realize that it does not matter which round Chris and Amber
played an opponent in. It does not change their chance of winning. Therefore, there
are really only 3 possibilities: they beat A and B, they beat A and C, and they beat
B and C.
P(win tourney) = 13 *(.9294*.7102 + .9294*.3917 + .7102*.391) = .4341
A Euchre deck consists of the cards 9, 10, J, Q, K, and A for each of the 4 suits, for
a total of 24 cards. Each player receives a 5 card hand. Trump is called every hand.
It consists of the A-9 of one suit and the same colored jack (7 cards in total). What is
the probability that Chris gets 5 trump in his hand?
7 C5
= .0004941
24 C5
Suppose Chris and Amber play 10 games total. Let X be the number of hands where
Chris gets 5 trump. Find the following probabilities: X is 4, X is at most 2, and X is
at least 1.
X Binomial(n=10, p=.0004941).
P(X = 4) = 10 C4 .00049414 .99950596 = 1.2476 1011
P(X 2) = P(X = 0, 1, or 2) = .9951 + .0049 + .00001 = .99999999
and P(X 1) = 1 - P(X=0) = 1-.9951 = .0049

 Let H be the number of hands until Amber gets 3 of a kind but not a full house. Find
the following probabilities: H is at most 1, H is 4, H is at least 4, and H is 8 given that
it is at least 6.
Here is the right answer:
C C C C2
P(3 of a kind but not a full house) = 6 1 4 243 C55 2 4 1 = .0903.
H Geo(p=.0903).
P(H 1) = P(H = 1) = p = .0903.
P(H = 4) = .0903 .90973 = .0680.
P(H 4) = P(H > 3) = .90973 = .7527.
P(H = 8 | H 6) = P(H = 8 | H > 5) = P(H = 3) = .0903*.90972 = .0748.
If they do any 3 of a kind (which can include a full house).
P(3 of a kind) = 6 C1 424CC3520 C2 = .1073.
P(H 1) = P(H is 1) since H Geometric(p=.1073). P(H = 1) = .1073.
P(H = 4) = .1073*.89273 = .0763
P(H 4) = P(H > 3) = .89273 = .7114
P(H = 8 | H 6) = P(H = 8 | H > 5) = P(H = 3) = .1073*.89272 = .0855
Suppose the 4 teams in the tournament repeat the tournament a large number of times.
Assume for simplicity that the probabilities of wins and losses stays the same. Let R
be the number of rounds Chris and Amber play until they win their 7th round. Let T
be the number of tournaments played until they win their 3rd tournament. Find the
following probabilities: R is at most 9, R is 13, T is 5, and T is 7.
R NB(r=7, p = .6771).
T NB(r=3, p=.4341).
P(R = 9) = 8 C6 .67717 .32292 = .4033.
P(R = 13) = 12 C7 .67717 .32296 = .0683
P(T = 5) = 4 C2 .43413 .56592 = .1572
P(T = 7) = 6 C2 .43413 .56594 = .1258

Continuous Random Variables

Extra 3.1

(
f (x) =
(a) Find the CDF of X.
Ra
F (a) = 0 32 x1/3 dx =
Hence,

a
2 3 2/3 
x

32
0

2 1/3
3x

= a2/3

0
F (x) = a2/3

1
(b) Compute P (X
8
F ( 27
)=

8 2/3
27

8
27 ).
4
9

if 0 < x < 1
otherwise

fora 0
if0 < a < 1
fora 1

Extra 3.2

(
f (x) =

1
36 (9

x2 )

for 3 x 3
otherwise

(a) Find the CDF of X.

Z
F (a) =
=
=
=
=

1
(9 x2 ) dx
36
3
Z a
Z a
1
1
9 dx
x2 dx
36 3
36 3
1 a
1 1 3 a
9
x 
36 3 36 3 3
1
1 1
1
(9a + 27) ( a3 +
)
36
36 3
327
1
1 3 1
a
a +
4
108
2

Hence,
F (x) =

1
x
4

1 3
108 x

1
2

for x < 3
for 3 x 3
for x > 3

(b) Compute P (X 0).

F (0) = 12
(c) Compute P (1 X 1).
P (1 X 1) = F (1) F (1) = ( 41
Extra 3.3

1
108

+ 12 ) ( 14 +

(
cx for 0 x 4
f (x) =
0
otherwise
(a) Find the value of c for which f (x) is a valid PDF.
4
R4
R4
1 2
cx
dx
=
c
x
dx
=
c
x
 = 16c
2
2 =1
0
0
Hence, 8c = 1, so c = 81 .

(b) Find the value of t such that P (X t) = 14 .

t
Rt
Rt

t2
F (t) = 0 81 x dx = 18 0 x dx = 18 21 x2  = 16
=
Hence, t2 = 4, so t = 2.

(c) Find the value of t such that P (X t) = 21 .

2

t
1 F (t) = 1 16
= 12
2
t
1
16 = 2
p
Hence, t2 = 8, so t = (8)

Extra 3.4 Find the PDFs for the following CDFs.

1
4

1
108

+ 12 )) =

13
27

F (x) =

1 2
x
9

forx 0
for 0 < x 3
for x > 3

1
(
e(x3)
F (x) =
1

for x 3
for x > 3

Extra 3.5 Customers arrive in a certain store according to a Poisson process with rate = 4 per hour.
Given that the store opens at 9:00am,
(a) What is the probability that exactly one customer has arrived by 9:30? P(Poi(2) = 1)
= e2 2 = 0.2707
(b) Given a, what is the probability that total of five has arrived by 11:30? P(Poi(8)=4)
=

e8 84
4!

= 0.0573

(c) Given a and b, what is the probability that the total of 10 has arrived by the time the
22
5
store closes (5:00pm)? P(Poi(22)=5 = e 5!22 = 1.198*105
Extra 3.6 Let X(t); t 0 be a Poisson process having rate parameter = 3. find
(a) P(X(1) 2) P(Poi(3) 2) = e3 (1 + 3 + 32 /2) = .049787 + .149361 + .224042 =
0.4232
(b) P(X(1)=1,X(3)=3) P(Poi(3)=1 and Poi(6)=2) = e3 3

e6 62
2!

= .149361*.044618 =

0.0067
(c) P(X(1) 2 | X(1) 1)

P (X(1)2)
P (X(1)1)

1.0497870.149361
1.049787

= .8428

(d) E[X(5) ] and Var(X(5)) X(5) is a Poisson(5*3=15), so 15 and 15

(e) E[X(1)X(3)] First, X(1) and X(3) are not independent. You need to split X(3) into
X(1) and X(3) - X(1). X(3)-X(1) is a Poi(2*3=6).
E[X(1)]E[independent X(2)] = (3 + 32 ) + 3 6 = 30
Extra 3.7 Let X be a continuous RV with P DF :

f (x) = cx 0 x 4
0 otherwise
a. Find the value of the constant c.
c=

1
8

This becomes E[X(1)2 ] and

b. Find the CDF

F (x) = 0
x0
2
x
0x4
16
1
x4

c. Compute P (2 < X 5) using both the PDF and the CDF

Z

P (2 < X 5) =

Z
f (x)dx =

x
dx = 0.75
8

P (2 < X 5) = F (5) F (2) = 0.75

Extra 3.8 The scores on an exam for a college course in the history of alien encounters are normally
distributed with a mean of 50 and a standard deviation of 5. The professor determines that
any student who scores in the bottom 20th percentile will fail the course. Determine the
scores on the exam that will produce a failing grade. What should be the failing score?
X N ( = 50, = 5), x0.2 = 1 (0.2) 5 + 50 = 45.8
Extra 3.9 A photographer takes an average of 3,000 pictures a week with a standard deviation of 175
pictures. Using the normal distribution, find the 25th , 50th , and 75th percentiles:
X N ( = 3000, = 175)
x0.25 = 1 (0.25) 175 + 3000 = 2881.875
x0.5 = 1 (0.5) 175 + 3000 = 3000
x0.75 = 1 (0.75) 175 + 3000 = 3118.125
I used z = -.675 and + .675 for the quartiles.
Extra 3.10 In a salad bar, customers are charged for the amount of salad they take. We have reason to
believe that the amount of salad taken is uniformly distributed between 5 and 15 ounces.
Let X be the weight of the salad plate being filled.
(A) State the distribution and parameters of X. X U [5, 15]
(B) What is the probability that the customer will take between 12 and 15 ounces of salad?

P (12 X 15) = P (X 15) P (X 12)

15 12
=
15 5
3
=
10

(C) Given that someone has already taken more than 7 ounces of salad, whats the probability that they will take at least 3 more ounces?

P (X > 10)
P (X > 7)
1 P (X 10)
=
1 P (X 7)
1 105
155
=
75
1 155
5
=
8

P (X > 10|X > 7) =

(D) What is the probability that someone will take exactly 8 ounces of salad? P (X = 8) =
0, this is a property of continuous distributions
(E) Find the mean and variance of the weight of the salad plate being filled. E[X] =
(155)2
5+15
= 8.33
2 = 10, V arX =
12
Extra 3.11 Suppose the time it takes a nine-year-old to eat a donut is equally likely between 0.5 and
4 minutes, inclusive. Let X be the time, in minutes, it takes a nine-year-old child to eat a
donut.
(A) State the distribution and parameters of X. X U [0.5, 4]
(B) Find the probability that a randomly selected nine-year-old eats a donut in at least
two minutes. P (X 2) = 1 P (X < 2) = 1 20.5
40.5 = 0.5714
(C) Find the probability that a different nine-year-old eats a donut in more than two
minutes, given that the child had already been eating the donut for more than 1.5
minutes.

P (X > 2|X > 1.5) =

=

1 P (X 2)
1 P (X 1.5)
1 20.5
43.5

1 1.50.5
43.5
2
= 0.8
=
3.5
(D) Find the expected value and variance of the time it takes for a nine-year-old to eat a
2
donut. E[X] = 0.5+4
= 2.25, V arX = (40.5)
= 1.0208
2
12
Extra 3.12 Ace Heating and Air Conditioning Service finds that the amount of time a repairman needs
to fix a furnace is uniformly distributed between 1.5 and 4 hours. Let X be the time needed
to fix a furnace.
(A) State the distribution and parameters of X. X U [1.5, 4]
(B) Find the probability that a randomly selected furnace repair requires more than 2
0.5
hours. P (X 2) = 1 P (X 2) = 41.5
41.5 = 2.5 = 0.8

(C) Find the probability that a randomly selected furnace repair requires less than 3 hours.
1.5
P (X < 3) = 31.5
41.5 = 2.5 = 0.6
(D) Find the 30th percentile of furnace repair times.
P (X < k) = 0.3
k1.5
k1.5
41.5 = 2.5 = 0.3
k = 0.3(2.5) + 1.5 = 2.25
Hence, 30% of repair times are 2.25 hours or less.
(E) The longest 25% of repairs take at least how long?
P (X k) = 0.25
4k)
1 P (X/ < k) = 1 k1.5
41.5 = 2.5 = 0.25
4 k = 0.25(2.5)
k = 4 0.25(2.5) = 3.375
(F) Find the mean and variance of the time it takes to fix a furnace. E[X] =
V arX =

(41.5)2
12

1.5+4
2

= 2.75,

= .5208

Extra 3.13 The lifetime of a certain brand of automobile tire is exponentially distributed with a mean
of 4 years.
(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected tire lasts between 3.5 and 4.5 years
P (3.5 < T < 4.5) = 1 e(

4.5
)
4

(1 e(

3.5
)
4

) = 0.0922

(b) If a randomly selected tire lasts more than 3 years, what is the probability is lasts more
than 4.5 years?
P (T > 4.5|T > 3) = P (T > 1.5) = e(

1.5
)
4

= 0.6873

(c) What is the median lifetime of a randomly selected tire?

x
1 e 4 = 0.5
x = ln(0.5)(4) = 2.773
Extra 3.14 The staff at a Chinese buffet brings out fresh food an average of once every half-hour.
(a) Let X be the number of times you see someone bring out fresh food in one hour. What
are the distribution and parameters of X?
X P oisson( = 2)
(b) You happen to be sitting and eating for one hour. What is the probability you see
them bring out fresh food at LEAST twice?
2 0
2 1
P (X 2) = 1P (X < 2) = 1(P (X = 0)+P (X = 1)) = 1( e 0!2 + e 1!2 ) = 0.5940
(c) Let Y be the amount of time it takes until you see someone bring out fresh food. What
are the distribution and parameters of Y?
Y Exponential( = 2)
(d) You finish your first helping and want to wait until they bring out fresh food to go
up for seconds. You have been waiting for 10 minutes already, what is the probability
that you will not have to wait longer than 25 minutes total?
2 15
10
15
60 = 0.3935
P (Y < 25
60 |Y > 60 ) = P (Y < 60 ) = 1 e

Extra 3.15 It takes Anna an average of 60 seconds to solve a rubix cube. You come in with a rubix
cube and mix it all up and ask her to solve it. Let R be the amount of time it takes Anna
to solve the rubix cube.
(a) What are the parameters and distribution of R?
R Exponential( = 1/60)
(b) What is the probability it takes Anna between 50 and 80 seconds to solve a rubix cube?
80

50

P (50 < R < 80) = F (80) F (50) = 1 e 60 (1 e 60 ) = 0.1710

(c) Given it has been 50 seconds and Anna hasnt solved the rubix cube, what is the
probability it will take her less than 80 seconds to solve the rubix cube?
30
P (R < 80|R > 50) = P (R < 30) = F (30) = 1 e 60 = 0.3935
(d) If Anna solves the rubix cube 6 times (all independent), what is the probability exactly
4 times she will have solved the rubix cube in less than 50 seconds?
50
A Binomial(n = 6, p = 1 e 60 = 0.5654)


P (A = 4) = 64 (0.5654)4 (1 0.5654)2 = 0.2895
Extra 3.16 A trucker drives from Los Angeles to Phoenix. The duration, in hours, of a round trip
follows an exponential distribution with mean of 20 hours. Let T be the time it takes for a
round trip drive.
(a) State the parameters and distribution of T.
T Exponential( = 1/20)
(b) What is the probability it takes at most 15 hours round-trip?
15

P (T < 15) = F (15) = 1 e 20 = 0.5276

(c) What is the 65th percentile of T?
x
0.65 = 1 e 20
x = 20ln(0.35) = 20.996 hours
Extra 3.17 Suppose that customers enter a bank at a rate of 24 customers per half hour. Let B be the
number of customers that show up in a 20 minute time span.
(a) What is the distribution and parameters of B?
BPoi(=16)
(b) What is the probability that between 7 and 9 customers inclusive showed up in the
first 20 minutes of the banks opening that morning?
P(7B9)=.005994+.011987+.021311=.03929
(c) A security guard watching the entrance just saw a customer walk into the bank, what
is the probability that the next customer walks into the bank in the next 5 minutes?
24
customers per min
This turns into an exponential, CExpo(=.8) where .8 =
30
P(C5)=.981684
Extra 3.18 Suppose you are working at Subway as a cashier. People checkout at a rate of 3 people per
minute during lunch hours (12pm - 2pm). Let C be the number of people that you checkout
from 12:30pm-12:35pm.
(a) What is the distribution and parameters of C.
CPoi(=15)

(b) What is the expected number of people you checkout in 10 minutes?

E[Poi(=30)] =30
(c) Say you checked out 10 people in 10 minutes, what is the probability that you checked
out 4 of those people in the first 3 minutes?
This turns into a binomial Bin(n=10, p=.3). P(Bin(n=10, p=.3)=4)=.200121
Extra 3.19 The amount of time that Brian spends playing Solitaire in a day is evenly distributed over
the interval of 40 minutes to 100 minutes. Find the following probabilities: He plays for
over an hour, he plays less than 50 minutes know he played less than 80 minutes, and he
played within one standard deviation of the mean.
S U(40,100). P(S > 60) =
P(S < 50) = 5040
8040 = .25

10060
10040

= .6

The variance is (10040)

= 300. The standard deviation is 17.32. The mean is 70.
12
P(52.68 < S < 87.32) = 34.641016
= .57735
60
Extra 3.20 On average it takes 5 days for a package to travel from Indiana to California. Let T be
the amount of time it takes Connors gift to travel from Indiana to California. Find the
following probabilities: T is more than 72 hours, it is less than 96 hours, it is more than
4 days given that it is more than 2 days, it is less than 4 days given that it is less than a
week, and it is between 1 and 6 days.
T Expo( = 5 days).
P(T > 3) = e3/5 =.5488
P(T < 4) = 1 e4/5 = .5507
P(T > 4 | T > 2) = P(T > 2) = e2/5 = .6703
1e4/5
P(T < 4 | T < 7) = 1e
7/5 = .7309
P(1 < T < 6) = e1/5 e6/5 = .5175
Extra 3.21 The number of Christmas cookies that Joan makes is Poisson distributed with an average
of 5 cookies every 4 minutes.
Let A represent the number of cookies Joan makes in 20 minutes. Find the probability
that A is 21 or 25.
25 21
25 25
A Poisson( = 25). P(A = 21 or 25) = e 21!25 + e 25!25 = .1413
Let W be the amount of time until the next cookie is made. Find the probability that
W is more than 2 minutes.
W Expo( = 1.25). P(W > 2) = e1.252 = .0821
Suppose 80 cookies are made in the first hour, 53 are M&M cookies and the other 27
are chocolate chip cookies. Let T be the number of cookies made in the last 15 minutes.
Let M be the number of M&M cookies in the first half an hour. Let C be the number
of chocolate chip cookies in the first 40 minutes. Find the following probabilities: T is
30, M is 30, and C is 20.
T Bin(n=80, p=.25)


30
50 = .0044
P(T = 30) = 80
30 .25 .75
M Bin(n=53,
p=.5).
30
23 = .0692
P(M =30) = 53
30 .5 .5
40
C Bin(n=27, p= 60 ).

2 20 1 7
P(C = 20) = 27
20 * 3 * 3 = .1221

Extra 3.22 The weight of goldfish follows a normal distribution with an average of 5 ounces and a
standard deviation of 1 ounce.
a. What is the median weight of a goldfish?
Mean = Median so 5 ounces
b. Between what two values do 95 percent of all goldfish weigh?
2 standard deviations, so 3 and 7 ounces
c. What is the probability a random goldfish weighs either more than 6 ounces or less
than 3 ounces?
P (W < 3 W > 6) = P (W < 3) + P (W > 6) = 0.025 + .16 = .185
d. If each goldfish is independent, how many goldfish do you expect to see before finding
one that is more than 7 ounces?
1
G Geometric(p = 0.025) E(G) = 0.025
= 40
Extra 3.23 The lifespan of a goldfish follows a normal distribution of 3 years with a standard deviation
of 0.4 years.
a. What is the probability a randomly chosen goldfish will live for exactly 3.4 years?
P (L = 3.4) = 0
b. What is the probability a randomly chosen goldfish will live more than 3.8 years?
P (L > 3.8) = 0.025
c. If weight and lifespan are independent, what is the probability a randomly chosen
goldfish will live less than 2.6 years and weigh more than 6 ounces?
P (L < 2.6 W > 6) = P (L < 2.6) P (W > 6) = 0.16 0.16 = 0.0256
Extra 3.24 Suppose you are tossing a coin 100 times where the probability of getting heads is .35. Let
X be the total number of flips that are heads.
(a) State the exact distribution and parameters of X.
XBin(n=100,p=.35)
(b) Is there an approximate distribution of X? If so state it and explain why you can use it.
Yes, there is an approximate distribution. np>5 and n(1-p)>5.
XAP P N ( = 35, sigma2 = 22.75)
(c) What is the probability (approximate) of getting between 27 heads and 39 heads inclusive?
P(27XAP P 39)= P(26.5XAP P 39.5)=(.94) (1.78)=.8264-.0375=.7889
(d) What is the probability (approximate) of getting exactly 37 heads?
P(36.5<XAP P <37.5)=(.52) (.31)=.6985-.6217=.0768
Extra 3.25 Suppose that heights are normally distributed for men in inches as N ( = 68, 2 = 25)
and heights for women are normally distributed in inches as N ( = 62, 2 = 36). Assume
heights between men and women are independent.
(a) What is the probability of a man being either taller than 72 inches or shorter than 60
inches?
P(M > 72 or M < 60)=(1 (.8)) + (1.6)=(1-.7881)+.0548=.2667

(b) What is the probability of a women being exactly 57.5 inches tall?
P(W=57.5)=0
(c) What is the probability of a women being greater than 6 feet tall?
10
P(W>72)=1-P(W72) = 1-( )=1-.9522=.0475
6
(d) The top 40% of men are taller than what height?
M0 68
(M0 ) = .6
= .255 M0 =69.275
5
Extra 3.26 Suppose the time in minutes for running a mile is normally distributed as N ( = 10, 2 = 4).
Let T be the time at which a randomly selected person finishes running their mile.
(a) What is the probability that someone finishes running before 7.5 minutes?
P(T<7.5)=(1.25)=.1056
(b) The fastest 15% of people finish their mile run before what time?
T0 10
=-1.04 T0 =7.92
(T0 )=.15
2
(c) What is the probability that you finish your run between 7 and 8.5 minutes if you
finished in under 10 minutes?
P (7 T 8.5) (.75) (1.5) .2266 .0668
P(7T8.5|10)=
=
=
=.3196
P (T < 10)
.5
.5
Extra 3.27 Suppose you are playing a piano, and you miss any individual note with .02. The song you
are playing has 500 notes in it. Let M be the number of missed keys you play.
(a) State the exact distribution and parameters of M.
MBin(n=500,p=.02)
(b) Is an approximate distribution appropriate, if so state the approximate distribution
and parameters and call it MAP P . Why or why not?
Yes, because np and n(1-p) are greater than 5. MAP P N ( = 10, 2 = 9.8)
(c) What is the approximate probability that you missed more than 7 notes?
P(MAP P > 7.5)=1-(.80)=1-.2119=.7881
Extra 3.28 Suppose you are driving to an airport and there are two routes. The first route cuts through
the downtown, which is shorter but with more traffic. If you take the first route, the time
it takes you to the airport follows Normal distribution with mean 50 and variance 100. The
second route takes you to the highway, which is longer but with less traffic. If you pick the
second route, the time it takes you to the airport follows Normal distribution with mean 60
and variance 16. Which route should you take if
a. you have 70 minutes to arrive at the airport?
They have z values of 2 and 2.5 and probabilities of .97725 and .99379 respectively, so
the Second route is better.
b. you have 65 minutes to arrive at the airport?
They have z values of 1.5 and 1.25 respectively and probabilities of .9332 and .8944
respectively. The First route is better.
Hint: Your decision should be based on the probability that it takes you to arrive at the
airport within the time limit.

Extra 3.29 Suppose the error of measurement X for some product follows a Normal distribution with
mean 0 and standard deviation 10. If a product is measured 100 times and the measurements
are independent. Whats the probability that the measured error is more than 19.6 for at
least three times?
The z-value is 1.96 and the P(Z > 1.96 = .024997895. Next examine, Y Bin(n=100,
p=.024998). We want P(Y 3) = 1- P(Y 2) = 1 - (.079534 + .203917 + .258795) =
0.4578
Extra 3.30 Based on the past experience, the STAT225 final grades for Management, Accounting and
Economics students follow the same Normal distribution with mean 78 and variance 36.
Assume the final grades are mutually independent.
a. Whats the probability that a randomly picked student has the final grade between 75
and 81?
P(75 < X < 81) = P(-.5 < Z < .5) = .6915-.3085 = 0.383
b. If three students are picked consecutively, whats the probability that at least one of
them has the final grade between 75 and 81?
1-P(none have a grade between 75 and 81) = 1 - .6173 = 0.7651
c. If four students are picked, whats the probability that their average final grade is no
less than 80?
P(average 80) = P(Z 32 0 = 0.2514
Extra 3.31 Suppose X N(, 2 ), and the probability that the equation y 2 + 4y + X = 0 doesnt have
real roots is .5. Please find .
A quadratic has imaginary roots if b2 4ac < 0. Since P(imaginary) is .5, that means that
P(16 - 4X < 0) = .5, so P(X 4) = .5. Since X is a Normal, we know that the mean is
equal to the median. Since 4 is the median, it is also the mean. The answer is =4
Extra 3.32 Suppose the height (in inches) of male Purdue students follows a Normal distribution with
mean of 70 and standard deviation of 10. Suppose the height (in inches) of female Purdue
students follows a Normal distribution with mean of 60 and standard deviation of 8. In
addition, suppose that 60% of the student population is female.
(a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen student is exactly 65 inches tall?
P(H=65)=0.
(b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen male student is taller than 60 inches?
P(M > 60) Z=-1. P(Z > 1)=1-0.1587=0.8413
(c) Suppose a randomly selected student is taller than 60 inches. What is the probability
that student is female?
H>60)
P (F )P (H>60|F )
.6.5
P(F |H > 60)= P P(F(H>60)
= P (F )P (H>60|F
)+P (M )P (H>60|M ) = .6.5+.4.8413 = 0.4713
(d) Suppose a randomly chosen female is taller than 60 inches. What is the probability
that she is taller than 52 inches?
We know she is taller than 60 inches. So, P(F > 52|F > 60)=1.
(e) Suppose a randomly chosen female is taller than 52 inches. What is the probability
that she is taller than 60 inches?
.5
P(F > 60|F > 52)= .8413
= .5943

(f) What is the probability that a randomly selected male student is taller than 76.11% of
all female Purdue students?
76.11% of females translates to ZF = 0.71. So, the critical height for females is 65.68.
P(M > 65.68) ZM = 65.6870
= 0.43 P (ZM > 0.43) = 1 .3336 = .6664
10

Numerical Summaries

Extra 4.1 Bobs last 20 golf scores, beginning with his last score
69
76
77
76

73
75
81
83

77
77
82
77

77
78
75
80

80
78
79
84

What is the mode for this data set? 77

Determine the median 77
Calculate Bobs mean golf score 77.7
Extra 4.2 -20, 1, 23, 25, 32.5, 33, 673
Median = 25
Lower quartile = 1
Upper quartile = 33
Extra 4.3 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 13
Median = 7
Lower quartile = 3
Upper quartile = 10.5
Extra 4.4 You investigate the amount of time students spend on the internet (in minutes). You studied
30 students and their times are listed below. List the 5-number summary, find any outliers
present, and show a boxplot and modified boxplot.
7
28
44
50
79

20
30
45
51
83

24
32
46
72
87

25
35
47
75
88

25
42
48
77
135

28
43
48
78
151

The 5 # summary is 7, 30, 46.5, 77, and 151. The IQR is 47. LL is -40.5. UL is 147.5.
There is only 1 outlier and it is 151.
Extra 4.5 Create a bar chart for this dataset. A survey of 145 people revealed their favorite fruit:

Favorite Fruit

Number

Apple

35

Orange

30

Banana

10

Kiwifruit

25

Blueberry

40

Grapes

Extra 4.6 What type of variables are the following, quantitative or qualitative
Smoking status Either, depending on the definition
SAT score Quantitative
Income Quantitative
Income level qualitative
level of satisfaction qualitative
GPA quantitative
clothing size qualitative
time it take to finish one homework quantitative
Extra 4.7 You want to study the amount of time students spend on the internet (in minutes) the day
before their final exam. You asked 30 students and their times are listed below. List the
5-number summary, find any outliers present, and show a boxplot and modified boxplot.
17
40
55
61
82

31
40
55
61
83

34
42
56
72
88

35
46
57
76
90

35
50
58
77
145

38
53
58
78
162

Five number summary: 17, 40, 56.5, 77, 162; Outliers: 145, 162
Extra 4.8 Psychological factors and social factors can influence the survival of patients with serious
diseases. One study examined the relationship between survival of patients with coronary
heart disease and pet ownership. Each of 92 patients was classified as having a pet or not
by whether they survived for one year. The researchers suspected that having a pet might
be connected to the patient status. Here are the data:

Patient Status
Alive
Dead
Total

Pet Ownership
No
Yes
28
50
11
3
39
53

a. Assuming the patient is still alive, what is the probability that he owns a pet? Is this
a joint, marginal or conditional probability?
50
78 = .6410, conditional
b. What is the probability that a patient owns a pet and is still alive? Is this a joint,
marginal or conditional probability?
50
92 = .5435, joint

c. What is the probability that a patient owns a pet? Is this a joint, marginal or conditional probability?
53
92 = .5761, marginal
Extra 4.9 (Binge Drinking in College). Binge drinkers: Five or more drinks in a row for males, four
or more drinks in a row for females. Undergraduate students were randomly selected in 30
colleges and the proportions of binge drinkers are below. Draw a stem and leave plot
46
33
58
29

52
57
64
26

51
55
46
18

35
21
67
66

Stem
1
2
3
4
5
6

58
48
42
41

60
36
53
26

59
13
62

46
27
41

Leaf
38
16679
356
1126668
12357889
02467

Extra 4.10 You are given the set of data below. Assume this data represents the entire population for
each variable (they are very small populations). Answer the following questions:
x
2
3
4
1

y
-1
-2
-6
1

z
3
3
2
6

(a) Which variable has the smallest average?

E(X) = 2.5, E(Y ) = 2, E(Z) = 3.5, so Y has the smallest average
(b) Which variable has the smallest variance?
V ar(X) = 1.25, V ar(Y ) = 6.5, V ar(Z) = 2.25, so X has the smallest variance
(c) Which variable has the largest standard deviation?
Y from part b
(d) Which pair of variables has the largest covariance?
Cov(XY ) = 2.75, Cov(XZ) = 1.5, Cov(Y Z) = 3.25, so Cov(Y Z) is the largest
(e) Which pair of variables has the strongest correlation?
Corr(XY ) = 0.96476, Corr(XZ) = 0.89443, Corr(Y Z) = 0.84984, so X and Y
have the largest correlation
Extra 4.11 Given the information about X and Y, evaluate the following:
E(X 2 ) = 29

E(X) = 2

E(XY ) = 14

SD(Y ) = 3

E(Y 2 ) = 10

(a) E(3X 4)
E(3X 4) = 3E(X) 4 = 3(2) 4 = 2
(b) V ar(2 8Y )
V ar(2 8Y ) = V ar(8Y ) = (8)2 V ar(Y ) = 64(32 ) = 576
(c) E(Y )
V ar(Y ) = E(Y 2 ) E(Y )2
p

E(Y ) = E(Y 2 ) V ar(Y ) = 10 32 = 1

(d) E (Y 3)2
V ar(Y 3) = E((Y 3)2 ) E(Y 3)2
E((Y 3)2 ) = V ar(Y 3) + E(Y 3)2 = 32 + (1 3)2 = 9 + 4 = 13
(e) Cov(XY )
Cov(XY ) = E(XY ) E(X)E(Y ) = 14 2(1) = 12
(f) Corr(XY )
V ar(X) = E(X 2 ) E(X)2 = 29 22 = 25
Corr(XY ) =

Cov(XY )
SD(X)SD(Y )

12
5(3)

= 0.8

Extra 4.12 At an intersection, a tally was kept of cars that either sped up once the traffic light turned
yellow or slowed down. Cars were classified into the region of the US they were from, East
Coast, West Coast, Midwest and Southern. Unfortunately, at a lunch break, a drink was
spilled and made several entries in the table illegible. First, fill in the missing entries in the
table using the information provided and answer the questions that follow.

East Coast
Midwest
South
West Coast

Slow Down
7
38
29
16
90

Speed Up
68
32
11
49
160

75
70
40
65
250

(a) A car is chosen at random, what is the probably it is from the East Coast? Is this a
marginal, joint or conditional probability?
75
250 = 0.3 marginal
(b) What is the probability a randomly chosen car is from the Midwest and slowed down
once the light turned yellow? Is this a marginal, joint or conditional probability?
38
250 = 0.152 joint
(c) Given the car sped up when the light turned yellow, what is the probability the car
was from the West Coast? Is this a marginal, joint or conditional probability?
49
160 = 0.31 conditional
(d) What is the probability the car is from the south or slowed down when the light turned
yellow?
40
90
29
101
250 + 250 250 = 250 = 0.404
(e) What is the probability the car sped up once the light turned yellow given it was from
a coast of the US?
68+49
75+65 = 0.836

(f) What is the probability a randomly chosen car is not from the East Coast and sped
up when the light turned yellow?
92
250 = 0.368
(g) What is the probability a randomly chosen car is not from the Midwest or did not slow
down once the light turned yellow?
38
P (M C SlowC ) = 1 P (M Slow) = 1 250
= 0.848
(h) You randomly choose 5 cars that slowed down at the intersection for the yellow light.
Of those 5 cars, how many do you expect to be from the South?
E(X) = np = 5 29
90 = 1.61
(i) You randomly choose 3 cars from this study, what is the probability all of them are
from the East Coast?
75 74 73
250 249 248 = 0.0262
(j) You randomly choose 3 cars from this study, what is the probability at least 1 slowed
down for the yellow light?
159 158
1 P (none) = 1 ( 160
250 249 248 ) = 0.74
Extra 4.13 A sample of 300 restaurants located in the Los Angeles area were rated on quality. In addition, the typical meal price was reported. The table below summarizes the data collected.
Perform a Chi-Square test of independence to see if there is a relationship between the cost
of the meal and the quality of the food. Use = 0.05.
Quality Rating
Good
Very Good
Excellent
Total

$ 10-19
42
34
2
78

$ 20-29
40
64
14
118

$ 30-39
2
46
28
76

$ 40-49
0
6
22
28

Total
84
150
66
300

(a) State your hypotheses

H0 = There is no association between cost of a meal and quality of the food
Ha = There is an association between the cost of a meal and the quality of the food
(b) Find the expected counts for each cell

Good
Very Good
Excellent

$ 10-19
21.84
39
17.16

$ 20-29
33.04
59
25.96

$ 30-39
21.28
38
16.72

$ 40-49
7.84
14
6.16

(c) Find the Chi-Square test statistic 2 = 119.95

Good
Very Good
Excellent
[h!]

$ 10-19
18.61
0.64
13.39

$ 20-29
1.47
0.42
5.51

$ 30-39
17.47
1.68
7.61

$ 40-49
7.84
4.57
40.73

(d) Find Degrees of Freedom

(3 1)(4 1) = 6
(e) Find the Chi-Square value for your DF and level
12.592
(f) State conclusions in terms of the problem
Because 119.95 > 12.592 we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that we have
evidence to say there is an association between the cost of the meal and the quality of
the food.
Extra 4.14 Alcohol and nicotine consumption during pregnancy may harm children. Because drinking
and smoking behaviors may be related, it is important to understand the nature of this
relationship when assessing the possible effects on children. One study classified 452 mothers
according to their alcohol intake prior to pregnancy recognition, as well as their nicotine
intake during pregnancy. The data are summarized in the following table.
Alcohol (ounces/day)
None
0.01-0.10
0.11-0.99
1.00 or more

Nicotine (milligrams/day)
None 1-15 16 or more
105
7
11
58
5
13
84
37
42
57
16
17

A. Convert this count table into a joint distribution table (in percentages).

Alcohol (ounces/day)
None
0.01-0.10
0.11-0.99
1.00 or more

Nicotine (milligrams/day)
None 1-15 16 or more
23.2% 1.5%
2.4%
12.8% 1.1%
2.9%
18.6% 8.2%
9.3%
12.6% 3.5%
3.8%

B. Calculate the column percents for this table. Explain briefly what they express. Do
the same for the row percents.
Column percents (left to right): 67.26%, 14.38%, 18.36%
Row percents (top to bottom): 27.21%, 16.81%, 36.06%, 19.91%
C. What is the probability that a mother took 1-15 milligrams of nicotine a day during
pregnancy? Is this a joint, marginal, or conditional probability?
14.38%, marginal
D. Assuming a mother did not drink alcohol prior to pregnancy, what is the probability
she smoked 16 or more milligrams of nicotine a day during pregnancy? Is this a joint,
marginal, or conditional probability?
11
105+7+11 = 0.0894 (or 8.94%), conditional
E. What is the probability that a mother drank 1.00 or more ounces of alcohol a day prior
to pregnancy and did not take nicotine during pregnancy? Is this a joint, marginal, or
conditional probability?
57
452 = .1261 (or 12.61%), joint

F. State the hypothesis for a 2 test for this problem.

H0 : There is no association between alcohol intake and nicotine intake
Ha : There is an association between alcohol intake and nicotine intake
G. Calculate the expected counts, and find the 2 test statistic and its degrees of freedom.
State your conclusions using = .05 level.
Expected counts:

Alcohol (ounces/day)
None
0.01-0.10
0.11-0.99
1.00 or more

Nicotine (milligrams/day)
None 1-15 16 or more
82.7 17.7
22.6
51.1 10.9
14.0
109.6 23.4
29.9
60.5 12.9
16.5

2 = 42.25
Degrees of freedom = (4-1)(3-1) = 6
26,.05 = 12.592 < 42.25, so we reject the null hypothesis.
Extra 4.15 The table below shows the level of physical activity and consumption of fruits in a sample
of 1184 college students.

Fruit Consumption
Low
Medium
High

Physical Activity (milligrams/day)

Low Moderate Vigorous or more
69
206
294
25
126
170
14
111
169

A. Convert this count table into a joint distribution table (in percentages).

Fruit Consumption
Low
Medium
High

Physical Activity (milligrams/day)

Low Moderate Vigorous or more
5.8%
17.4%
24.8%
2.1%
10.6%
14.4%
1.2%
9.4%
14.3%

B. Calculate the column percents for this table. Explain briefly what they express. Do
the same for the row percents.
Column percents (left to right): 9.1%, 37.4%, 53.5%
Row percents (top to bottom): 48.1%, 27.1%, 24.8%
C. What percentage of students who do vigorous exercise only eat a low amount of fruit?
Is this a joint, marginal, or conditional probability?
294
294+170+169 = 0.464 (or 46.4%), conditional
D. What percentage of students eat a high amount of fruit? Is this a joint, marginal, or
conditional probability?
24.8%, marginal

E. What is the probability that a student eats a low amount of fruit and does low physical
activity? Is this a joint, marginal, or conditional probability?
5.8%, joint
F. State the hypothesis for a 2 test for this problem.
H0 : There is no association between physical activity and fruit consumption
Ha : There is an associaiton between physical activity and fruit consumption
G. Calculate the expected counts, and find the 2 test statistic and its degrees of freedom.
State your conclusions.
Expected counts:

Fruit Consumption
Low
Medium
High

Physical Activity (milligrams/day)

Low Moderate Vigorous or more
51.9
212.9
304.2
29.3
120.1
171.6
26.8
110.0
157.2

2 = 14.152
Degrees of freedom = (3-1)(3-1) = 4
24,.05 = 9.488 < 14.152, so we reject the null hypothesis.
Extra 4.16 The following data give midterm and final exam scores for 8 students.
Midterm Score
Final Score

153
145

144
140

162
145

149
170

127
145

118
175

158
170

153
160

A. Calculate the sample variance for the midterm. Calculate the sample variance for the
final. Which exam has higher variability of scores?
Midterm 236.286, Final 198.214
B. Calculate the sample covariance between these two variables.
-43.571
C. Find the sample correlation between these two variables.
-.201
D. What does your calculations suggest about the relationship between these two variables? (positive/negative, strong/weak)?
Negative, pretty weak
Extra 4.17 Use the following table to answer all questions:
X
1
5
9

Y
2
3
10

(a) Calculate the sample variance of X. 16

(b) Calculate the sample covariance between X and Y. 16

(c) It is known that the sample variance of Y is 19. Calculate the sample correlation
between X and Y. 0.9177
Extra 4.18 A drug manufacturing company conducted a survey of customers. The research question is:
Is there a significant relationship between packaging preference (size of the bottle purchased)
and economic status? There were four packaging sizes: small, medium, large, and jumbo.
Economic status was: lower, middle, and upper. The following data was collected.

Small
Medium
Large
Jumbo

Lower
24
23
18
16

Middle
22
28
27
21

Upper
18
19
29
33

Here are the expected counts:

Small
Medium
Large
Jumbo
Chi-square statistic = 9.743
Degrees of freedom = 6
p-value = .1359

Lower
18.64748201
20.39568345
21.56115108
20.39568345

Middle
22.56115108
24.67625899
26.08633094
24.67625899

Upper
22.79136691
24.92805755
26.35251799
24.92805755