Poli 30: Political Inquiry

Fall Quarter, 2012

Review

Correlation & Causation

Correlation is a relationship between two (or more) variables

Correlation does not imply causation

Requirements for establishing causality

Temporal ordering
Correlation
Mechanism
Confounds ruled out

Research Design & Hypotheses

Tests are designed in the face of constraints (i.e. data, time,
funding) with different goals
Internal Validity vs. External Validity

Designs & validity

Controlled observational studies (- internal, + external)
Natural experiments (internal depends on selection, external)
Randomized/lab experiments (+ internal, - external)

Hypotheses
Specific and measurable implications of theories

Variable Types & Measurement

Nominal

Ordinal

Interval

Ratio

Count

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Calculate median & percentiles

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Add or subtract

No

No

Yes

Yes

Calculate mean & standard deviation

No

No

Yes

Yes

Calculate ratio

No

No

No

Yes

Measurement error stems from differences between conceptual and

operational definitions
Systematic error a chronic and consistent distortion in observations
leads to biases in analysis
Random error inconsistent distortions in observations increases
noise, but does not bias inferences

Visualizations
Stem & Leaf Plots
Histograms
Bar Charts

Calculating a Confidence Interval

Confidence intervals contain a range of values based on a
sample that are likely to contain the actual population
parameter

1.96

1.96

1.96

1.96
See Week 7 slides for more.

T-Scores vs. Z-Scores

Z of 1.96 gives us 95% confidence with a two-tailed test

This means each tail contains 2.5% of data, given a normal
distribution

Use a t score for small samples, when comparing means

As sample size increases, t approaches z
At 100 or more observations, you can replace t with z

To find the correct value of t, calculate degrees of freedom

DF = Sample Size - 1

Z Table Note that

this particular table
gives the area in the
body of the
distribution, rather
than the tail. To get
the tail, simply
subtract this value
from 1.

T Table

Hypothesis Testing

One-sample proportion test (IV and DV are nominal)

Difference in proportions (IV and DV are nominal)
Difference in means (IV binary, DV interval)
Chi-square (IV and DV are categorical)
Regression framework (IV and DV are interval)

Steps

Identify H0 and H1
Choose test
Calculate key value (compare to Z, 2, t)
Interpret

Crosstabs, Summary Tables & Controlled Comparisons

Cross-tabulation

Simple test where IV and DV are nominal or ordinal

Summary Table
IV is nominal or ordinal, DV is interval or ratio

Controlled Comparison
Create crosstabs based on different levels of confound

Causal Relationships
Spurious

IVs effect on DV disappears when controlling for confound

Additive
IVs effect on DV remains stable when adding confound into
analysis

Interactive
IVs effect on DV increases or decreases (but remains significant)
when confound is included

Regression Analysis (I)

~
~

+
+

Provides a way to analyze the effect of your IV on your DV,

especially when controlling for one or more additional IVs
In a typical regression table, coefficients (b), standard errors
(SE), t-values (t), and an indication of significance (P>|t|) are
given

Regression Analysis (II)

Functional link between DV and IVs varies based on the type

of DV
Nominal DV Probit or Logit/Logistic Regression
Ordinal DV Ordered Probit/Logit OR Multinomial Probit/Logit
Interval/Ratio DV Linear Regression

When in doubt, ASK

Regression Analysis (II)

Interpreting coefficients

For each of these, sign indicates the same directional

relationship, and determining significance is done in the same
way

Further interpretation
Linear regression B indicates change in slope that is attributed
to X
i.e. a 1 unit increase in X results in a B-unit change in Y

Other forms of regression This is a huge mess, so dont worry

about it unless you want to take years and years of econometrics

Regression Analysis (III)

Determining significance of a coefficient

Compare t to relevant t/Z score for 95% significance

Other levels of significance are acceptable (i.e. 90%, 99%)

If presented with p > |t|, simply compare to .05 (1 0.95)

For other levels of significance, this might be 0.1 or 0.01

Regression Analysis (IV)

. regress exports revt emp ppent, robust cluster(naics)

Linear regression

Number of obs
F( 3,
843)
Prob > F
R-squared
Root MSE

=
=
=
=
=

6677
1.44
0.2285
0.0159
312.23

(Std. Err. adjusted for 844 clusters in naics)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
Robust
exports |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------Total Revenue|
.0029434
.0020906
1.41
0.160
-.00116
.0070467
Employees |
.2512895
.4425897
0.57
0.570
-.6174177
1.119997
Phys. Capital| -.0009527
.0034821
-0.27
0.784
-.0077873
.0058819
Intercept|
6.60017
4.801907
1.37
0.170
-2.824926
16.02527
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Regression Analysis (V)

. logit procafta atfp tsale exporter, robust cluster(naics)

Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration
Iteration

0:
1:
2:
3:
4:
5:

log
log
log
log
log
log

pseudolikelihood
pseudolikelihood
pseudolikelihood
pseudolikelihood
pseudolikelihood
pseudolikelihood

Logistic regression
Log pseudolikelihood = -99.244511

=
=
=
=
=
=

-111.17378
-107.81316
-100.04385
-99.262411
-99.244544
-99.244511

Number of obs
Wald chi2(3)
Prob > chi2
Pseudo R2

=
=
=
=

6138
21.68
0.0001
0.1073

(Std. Err. adjusted for 832 clusters in naics)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|
Robust
procafta |
Coef.
Std. Err.
z
P>|z|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------Productivity|
.3844836
.164192
2.34
0.019
.0626732
.706294
Total Sales |
.0188455
.0050635
3.72
0.000
.0089213
.0287697
Exporter
|
1.403025
.7771746
1.81
0.071
-.1202088
2.92626
Intercept | -7.956071
.753366
-10.56
0.000
-9.432642
-6.479501
------------------------------------------------------------------------------