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Series 3 - National Commodities Futures

Chapter13

Chapter46

Chapter79

1.Preface

3.6Hedging

2.GettingStarted

3.7Leverage

3.GeneralTheory

3.8GeneralFuturesTerminology

AAA

Chapter1011

3.9GeneralOptionsTerminology
3.10SummaryAndReview

General Theory - Hedging


Hedging
Notallfuturestradingisaboutmovinggoodstomarket.Hedging,orenteringintoatransactioninordertoreduceexisting
exposuretopricefluctuations,isalsoamajorcomponentoftradingvolume.
SEE:ABeginner'sGuideToHedging
RiskReduction
Justaboutanytradercanbeahedgeratsomepointintimeitisafunctionmorethanajobdescription.Ifatraderalreadyholds
thephysicalgoodsorthefuturescontractstodeliverthem,orelsehastheoffsettingshortposition,thenshemightactasahedger
onhernexttrade.Hedgingisdonetodecreaserisk.
Whenyoubuyafuturescontract,youagreetopayacertainpriceforagivenquantityofagood.Thecounterpartywhosellsthe
contractisagreeingtothesameterms.However,overthemonthslongcourseofthecontract,circumstancesbeyondthecontrol
ofeitherpartycanoccurthataffectthespotpriceonthedeliverydate,causingittovarywildlyfromthepriceanticipatedinthe
contract.Whenthathappensandneitherthebuyernorsellerhashedgedpositions,thensomeoneisgoingtoendupwithawindfall
andtheotherisgoingtobepayingforit.
Hedging,then,hasastabilizingeffectoncommoditiespricing.
LongHedging
Inalonghedge,thehedgerbuysafuturescontract.Typically,thisisdonebysomeonewhoaddsvaluetothecommodity:
processors,manufacturers,exportersoranyonewhoisgoingtoneedaknownquantityofacommodityatafairlyspecificpoint
inthefuture.Thesetypesofenduserarecommercialhedgers.
SupposealargesnackfoodcompanyknowsinJulythat,inSeptembertwomonthshence,itwillneed50,000bushelsofcornto
keepitstortillachipfactoryrunning.TheCBOTreportsthefollowingpricesfor5,000bushelcontracts,denominatedin
cents/bushel:
Spot:235
SEP:246
DEC:260
Domesticdemandforcornisgrowingatafairlyconstantratesupplycouldkeepup,butnewmarkets,unfavorableweatherand
anynumberofotherfactors,coulddeterminehowmuchofthecropwouldbeavailabletothetortillachipmarketandatwhat
price.Oursnackfoodcompanydoesn'thavethefacilitiestostorethecornavailableonthespotmarketat$2.35/bushel,but
decidesthatthe$2.46priceforSeptembercornstillprovidesareasonableprofitmargin.The$2.60Decemberprice,though,
indicatesthatthespotpriceofcornwillkeepclimbingatanacceleratingrate,and$2.60isfarmorethantheprocessoriswillingto
payforabushelofcorn.
Sothecompanybuysten5,000bushelSEPcontractsat246cents/bushel.InSeptember,itturnsoutthatthenewspotpriceis
248cents/bushel.Becauseofalltheproceduralcomplicationsoftakingdeliveryofafuturescontract,thecompanywillsellthe
contractjustbeforeitexpires.Bythispoint,thefuturespricewillequalthespotpriceandthecompanywillbeabletoengagein
what'scalledareversingtradeandsellthecontractat248cents/bushel.
Thecompanywillthenbuythe50,000bushelsofcornonthespotmarket.

Ifyoudothemath,you'llseethatthehedgerhasapparentlybought$124,000worthofcorninSeptemberforaninvestmentof
$123,000inJuly.Still,that'snotareal$1,000profitifyouconsiderthecompanycouldhaveboughtthesameamountofgrainfor
thelowerpriceonthespotmarketatthetimeitboughtthefuture.Itmerelyeliminatedthecostofstoragewhileaddingon
transactioncosts.
LOOKOUT!
Theprofitandlossinadeallikethisistypicallynegligible.Thetransactionismoreaccuratelyviewedasaninsurancepolicy.Along
hedgeprotectsatraderagainstunanticipatedpricerises.Thatdidnotoccurinthisexample.TheSeptemberspotpricewasonlya
couplecentshigherthanthemarketthoughtitwouldbetwomonthsearlier.IftherehadbeenarashoftornadoesintheMidwest
orahugeorderplacedbyalargeoverseastradingpartner,thenSeptemberspotpricecouldhaverisento260cents/bushel,or
evenhigher,andthecompanywouldhavebeenveryhappyithadthelonghedge.
ShortHedging
Inashorthedge,thehedgersellsafuturescontractinordertolimitexposuretoapriceshortfall.Typically,thisisdoneby
farmers,minersoranyonewho,forwhateverreason,isholdingtheinventory(commercialhedgers).
Inashorthedge,thehedgersellsafuturescontract.Assumeyou'reanagentforthefarmingcooperativeinNebraskathatgrows
thecornunderlyingthecontractdescribedabove,inthesectiononlonghedging.Youwouldenterintothesamedealasthetortilla
chipmaker,butyourincentivewouldbetolimittheriskifcornpricesdeclinedsharply.Ifalargeexpectedorderdidnot
materialize,ifadevelopingnationshouldsuddenlydumplowercostcornontheworldmarketorifunusuallyfavorablesummer
weathershouldcauseasupplyglut,youknowthatthereareatleast50,000bushelsyoucansellatapriceyoucanlivewith.
LOOKOUT!
Mechanically,theshorthedgersellsthecontractsatthefuturespricetoopenthehedge,then,essentially,buysitbackatthe
prevailingspotpricetocloseit.

Next:Leverage

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