RRS 7 2014

Institutul Naional
de Statistic
Societatea Romn
de Statistic
REVISTA ROMN DE STATISTIC

- SUPLIMENT ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW
- SUPPLEMENT -
Scientific research Themes/Studies

Papers at the National Seminary Octav Onicescu
2014 / Nr. 7
Autorii poart ntreaga rspundere pentru coninutul

materialelor publicate, revista i Societatea Romn
de Statistic fiind exonerate de orice rspundere.
ISSN 2359-8972
Table of Contents
Application of Crowdsourcing in Marketing ............................................ 7
Assist. Professor Tamara Vlastelica BAKIC, PhD
Assist. Professor Slavica Cicvaric KOSTIC, PhD
Assist. Lecturer Ema NESKOVIC, MSc
Romanian International Trade Evolution ............................................... 17
Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD.
Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE, PhD.
Cristina SACAL, PhD. Student
The Assessment of the Agro-Climatic Parameters and Coefficients
Employed in the Drought Evaluation....................................................... 25
Assistant PhD Dana Maria (Oprea) CONSTANTIN
Assistant PhD Elena GRIGORE
Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Work
Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale .............................................................. 32
Teaching assistant Ivana KOVAEVI, PhD
Professor Svetlana IZMI, PhD
Professor Dobrivoje MIHAILOVI, PhD
Evolution of the Inflation and Price Index .............................................. 48
Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU, PhD.
Ligia PRODAN, PhD. Student
Ec. Emilia STANCIU
Three Twin Sciences, Born with the First Census .................................. 53
Associate Professor Gheorghe SVOIU, Ph.D.
Lecturer Mariana BNU, Ph.D.
Lecturer Mihaela GADOIU, Ph.D.
Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Testing of the Significance
of the Regression Model ............................................................................ 66
Alexandru URSACHE, PhD. Student
Bogdan DRAGOMIR, PhD. Student
Georgeta BARDAU (LIXANDRU), PhD. Student
Marius POPOVICI, PhD. Student
Revista Romn de Statistic - Supliment nr. 7/2014
The System of Financial Analysis Indicators Applying to the

Activity run by an Economic Agent ......................................................... 75
Lecturer Mdlina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD.
I.G. Duca: Cooperation is a Mean Of Harmonization in the
Fight between Capital and Labor ........................................................... 84
Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD
International Exchange of Goods and Services ....................................... 90
Andreea Gabriela BALTAC, PhD Student
Zoica NICOLA, PhD Student
Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student
Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student
Evolution of GDP: The Case of Romania ................................................ 98
Adina-Mihaela DINU PhD. Student
The Necessary E-Societal Management (E- Sm) Approach ................. 106
Nicolae COSTAKE
Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Elections
Candidate An Applied Statistics Research ......................................... 115
Assoc. professor Gheorghe SVOIU, PhD
Assoc. professor Emil BURTESCU, PhD
Assist. Marian AICU, PhD
The Model of W.F. Sharpe and the Model of the Global
Regression Utilized for the Portfolio Selection ...................................... 124
Developments in Accounting for Environmental Expenditure............ 132
Constantin MINDRICELU, PhD.
Some Considerations on Agricultural Exploitations ............................ 153
Amelia DIACONU, PhD Student
Aspects concerning the Verification of the Residual Normality

and the Prediction of the Regression Model .......................................... 161
Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhD.
Ec. Emilia STANCIU
Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer Behavior ........................ 168
Assoc. Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD.
Master Student Cristian STOICIU
Student Denisa OPREA
Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sport Culture in
Romania .................................................................................................... 174
Assistant teacher Cristian GHENA, PhD Student
Application of Crowdsourcing in Marketing

Assist. Professor Tamara Vlastelica BAKIC, PhD
Assist. Professor Slavica Cicvaric KOSTIC, PhD,
Assist. Lecturer Ema NESKOVIC, MSc
University of Belgrade
Abstract
Nowadays, a growing number of companiesis focusing on cost
optimisation and lowering labour expenses. In this climate, companies are
turning to talented and educated individuals who are ready to participate in
their projects. Whether it is for profit or non-profit purposes, or it is done by
using online technologies or without them, this new business model is called
crowdsourcing. This term is used for describing outsourcing process that
focuses on the power of people for solving different types of tasks. The aim
of this paper is to define crowdsourcing and its difference from similar
models such as open innovation, user innovation, open source and
outsourcing. The authors put focus on the application of crowdsourcing in
marketing, particularly in market research, product development and
promotion, as well as on examples of successful practice in these areas.
Finally, the conclusions regardingfurther use of this model will be presented
by taking a closer look atits advantages and limitations.
Key words: crowdsourcing, business model, marketing, market
research, product development, promotion
1. Introduction
The introduction of Web 2.0.opposite to the traditional Internet has
marked the beginning of new business era that companies are currently
adapting to. Le Deuff (2007) and OReilly (2005) describe Web 2.0 as the
utilisation dimension and not to the physical network that supports it,
which tends to encourage sharing between users and collaboration that
opens many new options for everyday business. By using Web 2.0, a
company can switch from outsourcing activities to other countries or firms
specialised in certain field to engaging individuals in its everyday activities
(Nekovi et. al., 2012). This model enables companies to gather ideas and
suggestions regardless of the persons location. Crowdsourcing is one model
of using peoples ideas for improving everyday business, as well as
gathering ideas for future projects of the company.
The concept of crowdsourcing has been present for a while, but the
first use of the term was in an article published in Wired magazine in 2006
and written by Jeff Howe and Marc Robinson. Since 2006 the word
crowdsourcing has been mentioned many times in the growing Internet
community, in magazines and books. The term crowdsourcing has been
discussed by Dahlander and Magnusson, (2008), and Agerfalk and
Fitzgerald, (2008) and it has only been mentioned as an example of Web 2.0
by Tapscott and William (2007) and Albors et al. (2008). The power of the
crowd (Howe, 2006) is related to many different versions of the
contribution that a crowd makes, as well as different areas of use. Therefore,
it is very important to distinguish crowdsourcing from similar models of
using the contribution of a crowd. Most commonly, the terms mistaken for
crowdsourcing are open innovation, user innovation, open source and
outsourcing.
Open innovation and user innovation start from the same point as
crowdsourcing in the world of distributed knowledge, companies should
not rely on their own research and development, but they should decide to
gather some of their ideas and R&D functions from other companies and
individuals. Open innovation is related to cooperation between firms, and
user innovation is focusing on cooperation between product users who are
solving issues with final products. Both open and user innovation are
focusing on innovations and originality, while crowdsourcing is not
restricted to innovations and often provides solutions that are not innovative
at all. Open source can be explained as the application of crowdsourcing in
IT industry. Howe (2008) describes crowdsourcing source as an
application of the open source principles to other industries. Brabham
(2008) adds to that by saying that it is obvious that crowdsourcing is not
restricted to software development. While it is obvious that there are
undisputable similarities in the business model of open source and
crowdsourcing, crowdsourcing is a wider area and has a wider application
than solely IT industry. The basic process of crowdsourcing and outsourcing
is the same, with a client company that is seeking help from another subject.
The basic difference between these two is that outsourcing is mainly
focused on getting support and help from institutions, while crowdsourcing
focuses on getting ideas from individuals.
2. Definition of crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing is composed of two words: crowd and outsourcing
and basically it means outsourcing to the crowd. It was first used on an
Internet forum, but it was widely popularised by Howe and Robinson after
8
they published an article in Wired magazine. Howe (2008) gives definition

of crowdsourcing: Simply defined, crowdsourcing represents the act of a
company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and
outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the
form of an open call. He adds that the crucialprerequisite is the use of the
open call format and the wide network of potential labourers. In a book he
recently published and in posts on his blog (2008 and 2009), Howe gives
two more precise definitions of crowdsourcing The White Paper Version,
and The Soundbyte Version. In The White Paper Versionhe describes
crowdsourcing as the act of taking a job traditionally performed by a
designated agent (usually an employee) and outsourcing it to an undefined,
generally large group of people in the form of an open call, while The
Soundbyte Versiondescribes crowdsourcing as the application of Open
Source principles to fields outside of software.
This is the basic process of crowdsourcing: First of all, acompany
identifies processes and activities that need to be improved by outsourcing
them. Instead of turning to another company for help, or trying to complete
these actions within a company, they are released to a crowd of outsiders
who are invited to perform the task on the firms behalf for a stipulated fee
(Whitla, 2009). It can be done in two ways: by limiting the crowd to a group
of people with qualifications of previous experience in the area, or by
issuing an open call to all interested parties. These two options can be
combined by limiting the call to the people from the area of expertise or to
people who are most likely to have skills for successfully completing the
task. Whitla (2009) notices that sometimes a single task can be completed
by many different users and each can be paid if they successfully complete
the task. This sentence sums up the idea of crowdsourcing enabling
talented individuals to get paid for the jobs they do in their own dynamic
and by using available resources. It also explains why crowdsourcing is
becoming widely used: companies are able to get the solutions they need by
paying less and being able to choose who they are hiring for the job.
Whitla (2009) describes the crowdsourcing process by using an
example of Amazons Mechanical Turk. Amazons Turk was named after
Hungarian nobleman Wolfgang von Kemplen who invented the Turk - the
first machine capable of beating human at a chess game. Mechanical Turk is
a platform that provides simple tasks - HITs (human intelligence tasks)to
individuals. These tasks require very little time and effort to complete, but
they cannot be done by computers. Therefore, individuals are solving them
and getting paid from couple of cents up to a US dollar, depending on their
effort. Whitla (2009) uses HITs to describe the process of crowdsourcing.
Figure no. 1: Crowdsourcing process
Source: Whitla, P. (2009), Crowdsourcing and its application in

marketing activities
The basic model of crowdsourcing is the same and it is shown in
Figure 1. There are alterations to this model depending on the industry and
the type of tasks, but the idea of paying the crowd to complete certain
processes remains as previously explained.
3. Application of crowdsourcing
A call for crowdsourcing can be published in form of an open call
orit can be limited to a certain number of people, as was previously
mentioned. The question that arises is: What types of tasks can be
crowdsourced? There are three types of tasks that can be outsourced to a
crowd: routine tasks, complex tasks and creative tasks (Schenk and Guittard
(2009)).
Routine tasks are a type of tasks that can be done very quickly and
easily while requiring minimum time, such as data collection or marking
text and images. This type of effort is usually awarded by micropayments. A
10
perfect example of this routine are ReCaptcha, Open Street Map (OSM) and
TxtEagle. ReCaptcha is widely used by websites for text recognition, when
it is necessary to distinguish virtual robots from humans.OSM is used for
collecting geographical data for creating a world map. Finally,
TxtEaglehelps mobile phone users to complete tasks by sending a text
message. Routine tasks are, in most cases, published as an open call, given
that almost anyone can participate in solving them.
Complex tasks that require more skills and knowledge are often
limited to a closed group of people. This type of tasks can be solved inboth
profit and non-profit sector, and the companies pay more due to the effort
required to complete the task successfully.
Finally, the third group of tasksare creative tasks. This is the earliest
type of crowdsourcing which startedlong before the Internet, in the form of
designer contests and competitions.
Companies usually crowdsource creative tasks with limitations only
in the form of the solution that is required. This way the original and
creative solutions are provided to the company. Monetary compensation for
these tasks depends on the type of task, but usually these tasks are paid the
most, varying from couple of hundred to couple of thousand US dollars.
4. Application of crowdsourcing in marketing activities
Even though there are many areas where crowdsourcing can be used,
this paper will focus on the application of crowdsourcing in marketing. The
main reason to do so is due to the fact that a growing number of firms is
turning to customers and focusing on their requirements and preferences.
The best way to do it is by turning to crowds for inspiration and ideas by
using crowdsourcing.
According to Dawson (2011), there are several ways of applying
crowdsourcing in marketing. These are shown in Table 1.
Table no. 1: Marketing application of crowdsourcing
Application
Description
Content creation
Generating marketing content such as videos,
images or copy.
Idea generation
Creating ideas to identify or develop
marketing initiatives.
Identifying insights to enhance existing
Product development
products or develop new ones.
Gathering customer perspectives on current
Customer insights
or potential products or marketing initiatives.
11
Application
Customer
engagement
Description
Building greater participation and affiliation
with the brand and company.
Tapping customers to spread word to their
Customer advocacy
personal networks about products or
services.
Gaining insights on attitudes to possible
Pricing
pricing strategies.
Source: Dawson, R. (2011), Getting Results From Crowds: The definitive
guide to using crowdsourcing to grow your business
Content creation is widely crowdsourced by giving customers a
chance to provide content in different forms. Idea generation has been one
of the most useful applications of crowdsourcing, given that there is a
number of companies that benefited from having creative ideas coming
from the crowd.
One of the best examples is Starbuckss portal My Starbucks Idea,
which has generated over 100.000 ideas for different aspects of business.
Some of these ideas are related to the third area of application product
development. Dells IdeaStorm portal is another great example of company
benefiting from its loyal and creative customers, as well as people with good
ideas for new products. Customer insight, engagement and advocacy are a
type of crowdsourcing primarily focusing on a narrow crowd the
customers, given that it is required to be a user of a product/service to be
able to contribute in these areas. Finally, the question of pricing is often
resolved by asking the people how much are they willing to pay for a certain
product or a service.
Whitla (2009) was researching Human Intelligence Tasks (HITs)
and he identified the fields of marketing that are most suitable for their use,
taking into consideration the nature of the tasks. By reviewing literature and
already published HITs, he singles out marketing research, product
development and advertising and promotion as areas of marketing where
crowdsourcing is most successfully used.
4.1. Use of crowdsourcing in market research
The most common form of applying crowdsourcing in market
research is collecting data through surveys and questionnaires. Respondents
are given a number of simple questions and the results are later used for
creating product strategy. Given that these surveys provide monetary
compensation to respondents, there is one big problem when using
12
crowdsourcing for research: providing false data. Whitla (2009) notices that
firms may restrict online surveys to a targeted population and that there is
no way to prevent someone from imitating demographic to earn extra
money. The payment may affect responses in another way by keeping in
mind that the company is paying them, many respondents may provide
responses that represent an unrealistic image of a company or so called
desired responses.
The best way to prevent this from happening is by using complex
questionnaires that require some fields to be filled in own words, as well as
requiring a minimum number of words. Poynter (2013) argues that, in recent
years, many companies are researching the market by placing projects on
crowdfunding sites to see if people are willing to back it with their money.
The clear distinction between peoples opinions and their will to pay for
something can be noticed, which is a very useful pointer for future success
of the project.
A popular example of using crowdsourcin in market research is
Springwise, a company that keeps a network of over 8.000 professionals
who contact the firm when they discover an interesting product, service or a
business model. The company later sells the trend predictions to interested
parties. Kaggle.com is another popular example, as the website gathers
information from the crowds and does predictive analysis based on it.
4.2. Use of crowdsourcing in product development
Product development based on crowdsourced ideas is a constantly
growing branch. Even though open innovation is most commonly used in
product development, as companies are looking for innovative solutions to
their issues, crowdsourcing is widely used as well. Von Hippel (1998, 2006)
states that firms have been using consumer inputs for a long time and that
manufacturers have been collecting inputs for developing new products for
years. In crowdsourcing for product development there are three key
differences to open innovation. Firstly, it is not limited only to customers,
but includes potential customers or anyone willing to assist and provide
their ideas. Secondly, in enables companies to get direct feedback, without
the third party (such as distributors) involved in the process. Finally,
companies can select specific areas where the improvements should be
made and limit enquires to these areas. There are numerous examples of
applying crowdsourcing in product development, including a crowdsourcing
company InnoCentive, specialised in offering solutions to R&D problems to
companies. Their clients include Proctor and Gamble, Boeing, DuPont, and
they offer up to 100.000 US dollars as a winning prize for best solutions.
13
4.3. Use of crowdsourcing in advertising and promotion

Third most common use of crowdsourcing is in advertising and
promotional activities. This model of crowdsourcing has become very
popular in the past couple of years, given that its main advantage is enabling
companies to save a lot of money and use the crowd to spread their
message. The companies with bigger advertising budgets have been
collaborating with the crowds for a while by including them in projects in
the form of an open call, or even by paying them to post positive comments
on blogs and websites. In a recent article, Kirby (2013) mentions six new
modes of advertising for the future, and crowdsourcing is one of them. Her
article focuses on a successful example of Oreos campaign Daily Twist.
The campaign was based on launching a 100-day series of cookies inspired
by the news nominated by the crowd. The campaign resulted in 4.400% rise
in sharing Oreos Facebook page in just three months, with a significant rise
in sales.
Crowdsourcing can be used in promoting or re-building brand
identity of an institution, or even a location, as was the case with
Connecticut (Birkner, 2013). With limited marketing budget and expensive
media markets in targeted areas (especially Boston and New York City), the
Office of Tourism switched to a creative approach by inviting locals to take
part in a campaign Whats Your Connecticut Story? in February 2012.
The campaign focused on getting personal experiences from Connecticut
and promoting them on a website and a Facebook page. Following a success
of this campaign, a new campaign Still Revolutionary was launched in
May 2012. These two campaigns generated a total of 1.1 billion media
impressions, 140.000 Facebook fans and 18% increase in awareness of
Connecticut as a place to visit among neighbouring states. The successful
campaign tends to become a tradition, given that another Fan Favourite
campaign was launched in April 2013.
5. Conclusion
This paper presented many areas where crowdsourcing can be
applied, even though it is a business model that is still in its developing
stages. The increase of competition and limited budgets are some of the
drivers that will help crowdsourcing become widely applied and popular
model in the future. The authors presented successful examples of
application of crowdsourcing in marketing; however, there are downsides to
this model as well, and in the future the improvements must be taken into
consideration.
14
First and the biggest problem arises from the sample even though
it is common to believe that more people guarantee better results, it may not
be the case, especially when applying crowdsourcing in market research.
This can prevent relevant information from getting to the companies. That is
why it is important to work on improving mechanisms for filtering
information and choosing participants. There are issues and limitations
regarding the areas of expertise and qualifications required to successfully
participate in crowdsourcing. Further research should focus on participants
and better segmentation and profiling, so that results they provide can be
improved.
Further use of crowdsourcing in marketing is heading towards social
media and the use of social networks, as the source of the crowd, as well as
the channel for placing a message and implementing marketing activities.
References
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Neskovic, E, Pavicevic, S, Dadic, J (2012) Crowdsourcing as a platform

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16
Romanian International Trade

Trade Evolution
Academy of Economic Studies
Artifex University of Bucharest
Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest
Cristina SACAL, PhD. Student
Abstract
This paper describes the evolution of the international trade during
the first three months of 2014, compared to the similar period of 2013. The
focus is set on the analysis of structure and dynamics. The results of the
analysis reveal the overall evolution of foreign trade, the main factors that
have contributed to the evolution, the structure on partner countries.
Key words: trade, factor, percentage, evolution, structure
For the first three months of 2014, the value of FOB exports reached
the level of 12756.5 million euro. A comparison with the similar period of
2013 reveals an increase with 10.1%
The dynamic and structural analysis of exports1, depending on the
CN sections outlines increases for sections Mineral products- with 2.0
percentage points, Vegetable products - with 1.5 percentage points and
decreases for Base metals and articles of base metals - with 1.9 percentage
points, Chemicals products - with 1.1 percentage points.
The exports belonging to the sector machinery and mechanical
appliances; electrical equipment; sound and image recorders and
reproducers, takes the first position in the hierarchy, with a quota of 25.8%
of total exports for the first trimester of 2014. Compared to the period 1.I31.III 2013, an increase of 10.7% was recorded. The sector has the leading
position in total section, with a percentage of 61.2% and also in total
exports, with a percentage of 15.8%.
Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) Production and Trade of Goods, Revista Romn de
Statistic Supliment Trim II/2012
17
Also, it can be observed that six sections of the Combined

Nomenclature hold 71.5% of total exports, as seen in the chart below:
Data source: National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistics no. 3/2014
The second position is held by the section Vehicles and associated

transport equipment with a weight of 16.8% in total exports. Inside this
section, the sector Vehicles, tractors and other ground vehicles accounted
for 88.1% of total section and 14.8% of total exports.
The section Base metals and articles of base metals has the third
place as weight in total exports. The comparison with Q1 2013 reveals a
decrease of 9.9%.
The main position in the structure of this section is taken by the
chapters Pig-iron, iron and steel, a weight of 30.7% of total section and
2.7% of total exports and, respectively, Pig-iron, iron and steel products,
with a percentage of 35.6% of total section and a weight of 3.1% in total
exports
Furthermore, the comparison between data recorded during Q1 2014
as against Q1 2013 allows to draw the conclusion that exports to the other
27 European Union (EU28) countries increased with 10.3%, registering a
weight of 71.1% in total exports.
The structure of export by partner countries includes a dataset
related to 10 partner states accounting for 63.6% of total exports. These
countries and their related weights are the following: Germany (19.9% of
total exports), Italy (11.4%), France (7.0%), Hungary (5.0%), Turkey
(4.6%), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northen Ireland (4.2%),
Bulgaria (3.5%), Russian Federation (3.1%), Spain (2.5%) and Poland
(2.4%). These data are also synthesized in the chart below as relative
weights:
18
In March 2014, FOB exports reached the level of 4480.4 million

euro, which represents an increase 11.8% more compared with March 2013.
During the first trimester of 2014, CIF imports accounted for
13871.7 million euro, increasing with 9.6% as against the corresponding
period of 2013.
The structural analysis of imports, shows the fact that six sections of
the Combined Nomenclature hold 74.3% of total imports, as described in
the chart below:
19
The two chapters of this section hold the following weights: the
products in the chapter Boilers, turbines, engines, mechanical devices and
apparatus and parts thereof hold 43.5% of total section and 11.8% of total
imports, while the products under the chapter Electric machinery,
appliances and equipment, TV sound and video reproduction and recording
apparatus recorded a weight of 56.5%, when considering the total section
and 15.3% as compared to imports.
As regarding the imports of chemicals products, an increase is
observed when comparing with the corresponding period from the previous
year, having a relative value of 3.7%. The share of this sector is 10.9% (in
total imports).
There is to be noted that the sector Pharmaceutical products holds
a significant share of the total section and imports, accounting for 41.7%
and respectively 4.5%. The section related to imports of mineral products
recorded a value by 22.0% than the amount for the first trimester of the
previous year. The highest contributor to this evolution is the chapter Fuel
and mineral oils, with a quota of 94.3%, and 10.0% in total imports.
The data related to the section Base metals and articles of base
metals, reveal a share of 10.4% in total imports, and also an increase with
9.3% compared to the similar period of the previous year. A special remark,
however, regarding the contribution of the chapter Pig-iron, iron and steel,
whose percentage quota is 34.1% of total section and respectively 3.6% of
total imports, and also for the chapter Pig-iron, iron and steel products,
who accounted for a share of 28.1% (in total section) and 2.9% of total
imports.
The section vehicles and associated transport equipment recorded
an increase of 10.5% as against the first trimester of 2013. The chapter
Cars, tractors, other vehicles has a significant share, which is 95.9% of
total section and 7.7% of total imports. Another section that recorded
increase was the plastics, rubber, and articles thereof, a growth with 6.9%
as against Q1 2013. The weight of this sector in total imports is 7.2%.
Depending on the CN sections, the structural analysis reveals the
major evolution in the import activity (comparison Q1 2014 as against Q1
2013):
- increasing weight for section: Mineral products - with 1.1
percentage points;
- decreasing weight for section Chemical products- with 0.6
percentage points.2
2
National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistical Bulletin no. 3/2014
20
The European position of Romanias imports is characterized by a

greater percentage than during the 1st trimester of 2013 (an increase by
8.1%). The share of imports from other 27 countries in the Eu28 panel was
75.4% in Q1 2014.
The most important international trade partners during the 1st
trimester of 2014 were Germany (18.8% of total imports), Italy (10.8%),
Hungary (7.8%), France (6.4%), Poland (4.4%), Kazahstan /4.1%), Russian
Federation (4.1%), China (3.8%), Austria (3.8%), Netherlands (3.5%). The
partners listed in top 10 amount for 67.5% of total imports. The relative
contribution of partner countries is shown in the chart below:
In March 2014, the evolution of CIF imports represented a value of

5029.6 million euro, with 9.9% more compared with the corresponding
period in 2013.
The FOB-CIF trade balance during the 1st trimester of 2014
increased with 37.8 million euro compared with Q1 2013, reaching a value
of 1115.2 million euro.
In 2013, the FOB exports indicator reached a value of 219121.6
million lei (49562.6 million euro), which represents an increase by 9.1%
21
from the year 2012, as value in Romanian lei and respectively by 10% as
value in euro currency.
The analysis of dynamics and structure of exports3 outlines the
contribution of three sections in Standard International Trade Classification
(SITC Rev. 4), which together hold a share of 74.0% of total exports. Their
contribution is reflected in the following chart:
The most important contributors to the structure of imports, according
to SITC rev. 4, hold a quota of 79.8% of total imports. Their shares are
presented in the following chart:
Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 1/2014
The value of CIF imports indicator is 244334.7 million lei for the year
201, corresponding to 55264.5 million euro. Therefore, the indicator
increased from 2012, by 0.2% as values in lei and by 1.0% as values in euro.
3
Anghel, M.G. (2010) Utilizarea modelelor econometrice n analizele economice,

Simpozionul tiinific internaional Necesitatea reformei economico sociale a Romniei
n contextul crizei globale, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2010, pg. 145-151, ISBN 978-9737631-71-8
22
Machinery and transport equipment (35.0%), manufactured products

mainly classified by raw material (20.8%), chemicals and related products
not elsewhere specified (14.1%) and mineral fuel, lubricants and connected
materials (9.9%).
FOB exports, CIF imports and foreign trade operation balance during
December 2012 December 2013
In 2013, the international trade recorded a deficit of 25213.1 million

lei (5701.9 million euro) in FOB/CIF prices. The comparison with the
previous year reveals a decrease of 17774.9 million lei, corresponding to
3932.4 million euro.
References
Anghel, M.G. (2010) Utilizarea modelelor econometrice n analizele
economice, Simpozionul tiinific internaional Necesitatea reformei
economico sociale a Romniei n contextul crizei globale, Editura
Artifex, Bucureti, 2010, pg. 145-151, ISBN 978-973-7631-71-8
Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) Production and Trade of Goods, Revista
Romn de Statistic Supliment Trim II/2012
Anghelache, C. (2013) Romnia 2013. Starea economic sub povara
efectelor crizei, Editura Economic, Bucureti
23
Anghelache, C. (2012) Romnia 2012. Starea economic in criz

perpetu, Editura Economic, Bucureti
Anghelache, C. (2008) Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic,
Editura Economic, Bucureti
Goodwin, N.R. (2008) Macroeconomics for the Twenty-First Century,
Tufts University, series GDAE Working Papers no. 03-02
Voineagu,V. (2007) Economic And Social Evolution Of Romania During
1.I-28.II.2007 Period, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume
(Year): 06
(511)
(supplement)
(2007),
Issue
(Month): 07(511)(supplement) (June)
Anuarul statistic al Romniei, ediiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009,
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
*** Statistical Bulletin no. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 112/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 112/2012, 1-12/2013, 1/2014, National Institute of Statistics
*** National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistics no. 3/2014
24
The Assessment of the AgroAgro-climatic Parameters and

Coefficients Employed in the Drought Evaluation
Assistant PhD Dana Maria (Oprea) CONSTANTIN
University of Bucharest, Faculty of Geography,
danamartines@yahoo.com
Assistant PhD Elena GRIGORE
University of Bucharest, Faculty of Geography,
ela_zigzag@hotmail.com
Abstract
The theme of the article is of theoretic and didactic nature,
providing the systematization of agro-climatic parameters and coefficients,
necessary for the explanation and evaluation of the drought phenomenon,
within a precise geographic region. Through interactions and consequences
on a social level, economical and political, the drought phenomenon
represents an environmental problem, which implies analyses on a global
scale, regional, national and local, with the purpose of establishing some
specific measures of prevention and control. Therefore, the correct
employment of climatic data (elements, parameters and coefficients)
represents an effective way of approaching the organization, management,
analysis and contrasting of elaborated studies which have as a subject the
characterization and detection of the aridity and/or drought phenomenon.
The article is based on professional literature, acting as an inventory of the
main agro-climatic parameters and coefficients utilised in the assessment of
the drought phenomenon, on a national and international scale.
Key words: evaluation, agro-climatic coefficients, assessment,
agro-climatic parameters, drought.
JEL Classification: Q 50, Q 54
1. Introduction
The drought is a complex phenomenon, characterized by the
insufficiency or total absence of precipitations, large values of the saturation
deficit and extreme temperatures, with a time coverage of between a few
days up to several weeks or even months. The drought is firstly manifested
in the air, also known as an atmospheric drought, and if this event holds on
25
for a long time, reducing the water reserves in the soil, the edaphic drought
occurs.
The atmospheric or meteorological drought is depicted through time
periods without precipitations, high air temperatures and excessive values of
evapotranspiration, usually developing after ten consecutive days without
precipitations.
The edaphic drought arises when the pedological cover cannot
supply the necessary amount of water for the plants and consequently they
start fading.
The mixed drought represents the association of the two types of
drought, delivering the agricultural drought, since it determines the partial
or total compromise of the harvest.
Within the Romanian territory, the droughts, in the majority of cases,
are owed to the anticyclones formed in the arctic regions, bringing air
masses with relatively low temperatures and a scarce content of water
vapours (cca 5 mg/m). Advancing southward, the arctic air is rapidly
heated, and consequently the relative humidity drops and the saturation
deficit rises considerably. Aside from the dynamic atmosphere the
characteristics of the active surface have to be taken into consideration, like
the orographic barrier role of Carpathian Mountains, thus the drought
phenomenon even though can occur all year round and all over the
agricultural regions of the country, it cannot arise simultaneously
throughout the country and with the same intensity.
The drought period, after the Hellmans definition, is the period of at
least 10 days within the warm season (April September) of the agricultural
year, in which the precipitation quantity does not exceed 0,1 mm/day.
Due to the complexity, the drought can be studied through various
perspectives such as: meteorological, economical, hydrological, ecological,
agro-climatologic and agricultural.
The article approaches the drought through an agro-climatologic
perspective, in order to realize an inventory of the major agro-climatic
parameters and coefficients, employed in the evaluation of the drought
phenomenon.
The agro-climatology highlights the drought impact on agriculture,
analyzing the climatic factors which condition the demand of an agricultural
system or biotope for reaching the optimal biological productivity.
2. Materials and methods
In the process of preparing this material a series of professional
literature was consulted. The drought event is studied through different
26
methods, of which we remind the spatial and temporal analysis of agroclimatic parameters, the agro-climatic coefficients implementation, and the
graphic production of climatic-data.
3. Results and discussions
In the development of a study on aridity and/or drought events
several criteria of identification and classification are employed, namely:
- the analysis of precipitation fluctuations in time intervals correlated
with the primary phonologic phases of the harvest and the plats request
in regards to water;
- the frequency of scarce pluviometric (arid) periods and dry intervals,
after the Hellman criteria;
- droughty months and years extreme and/or exceptional cases;
- the spatial and temporal repartition, intensity and duration of agroclimatic parameters;
- agro-climatic coefficients.
From the above principles we will focus on the last two, due to our
wish of producing an inventory of primary parameters and coefficients
agro-climatic used in the evaluation of drought events.
The agro-climatic parameters utilised in the drought assessment
define conditions or atmospheric phenomena which characterise the
weather within a time frame.
The agro-climatic parameters which define exemplify and identify
the development of singular and/or complex agricultural drought events
are:
- air temperature by means of diurnal, monthly, annual and multiannual
averages; diurnal, monthly, annual and multiannual maxima and
minima, and cumulative temperature;
- soil temperature through diurnal medium at surface and at depths of 05,
10, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 cm;
- atmospheric precipitation by means of monthly and multiannual
average quantities; variability of monthly and annual quantities;
frequency of different monthly and annual amounts; maximum
quantities fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours; number of rainy days and
optimal and critical limits of precipitation amounts on characteristic
intervals specific for crops;
- parameters of thermal stress which define the broil phenomena as
intensity of generation by unities of broil (Tmax32 C) > 15 C for
VI month; > 20 C for the VII and VIII months; > 70 C for the time VI
VIII frame;
27
parameters of thermal stress which identify the broil events as span

of generation by number of broil days month/ agricultural
interval/season or agricultural year medium and extreme values of
production; number of consecutive broil days/3 as minim threshold and
5 days consecutive, enduring broil;
- parameters of atmospheric stress by means of relative humidity of air <
30 40 % / month, V VIII period;
- parameters of hydro stress by precipitations < 50 mm, IX X; < 150
mm, XI III and VI VIII; < 450 mm, IX VIII; soil water reserve
(m /ha), in values of < 50 in the soil layer 0 20 cm and < 100 in the
soil layer 0 100 cm, close to the scorching coefficient, serving as
extreme edaphic drought.
The identification, recognition and spatial and temporal examination
of these agro-climatic parameters employed in the drought assessment,
allow through correlation with the covering of growth and development
processes of plants, the appointment of favourability degree from an agroclimatologic standpoint of farming surfaces for agricultural breeds and
species with different degrees of resistance to the occurrence of drought
events.
The agro-climatic coefficients engaged in the drought evaluation
provide information on the risk degree, intensity, frequency, duration and
probability of generating disruptive factors, and also for establishing the
vulnerability extent of harvested terrains and the spatial temporal
repartition of hazard events.
The evaluation of climatic coefficients is attained with the aid of
several simple mathematic formulas, the majority highlighting different
rapports between two climatic elements, the most important being
temperature and precipitations. In order to calculate the agro-climatic
drought coefficients a correlation must be made with the requests in regards
to vegetation conditions of plants on specific phases and inter-phases and
the active season in its ensemble.
The primary agro-climatic coefficients used in the drought
assessment both on a national and international scale are:
the soil humidity coefficient G. T. Seleaninov [11]: k = 0.6 Sr1 +
Sr2/St, where Sr1 is the precipitation quantity outside of the
vegetation period, Sr2 is the precipitation amount during the
vegetation period, while St is the sum of active temperatures
10 C within the vegetation period;
the humidity coefficient [2]: Iu = aq + Q/ETP, where a is the
proportionality coefficient which differs throughout the year
28
from 0 to 0.6, q is the sum of precipitations from the XI II

months, Q is the sum of additional precipitations month by
month, whilst ETP is the potential evapo-transpiration;
the rain factor Lang [9] represents the rapport between the
annual precipitations medium and the sum of monthly averages
of positive temperatures (> 0 C)/12, in order to obtain a positive
and finite value of the rapport;
the aridity coefficient De Martonne [2]: Ia = P/(T+10), where P
is the average annual amount of precipitation (mm), while T is
the medium annual temperature (C). It derives from modifying
the rain factor Lang, so that at negative temperatures the
coefficient will not take negative values [11]. It is calculated
annual, monthly and during the vegetation season.
aridity coefficient Thornthwaite [11]: ITh = P/ETP, where P is
the precipitation amount, while ETP is the potential
evapotranspiration. It is used as such, or as a humectation
coefficient stated in percents after the 100P/ETP formula and
dubbed moisture coefficient Thorn-thwaite or humidity
coefficient;
the humidity coefficient [10] Rz: Rz = zRR, where z is the
number of days with precipitations 0.1 mm within the
considered time frame, while RR is the monthly amount of
precipitations (mm). It is employed within the III X monthly
period;
hydrothermal coefficient [9]: Iht = T P/100 k1 k2 where T is
the annual average temperature, P is the quantity of medium
annual precipitations, while k1 and k2 are correction
coefficients. For Romania the values are between 0.7 and 9;
Palmer coefficient [10] is a function assigned by the differences
accumulated between the precipitation provisionsassurance and
evapotranspiration requirements for the purpose of forecasting
the scarce and/or humid periods;
stress coefficient day/grad (SDD) [10]: SDD = (Tc Ta)
where Tc is the temperature of vegetation layer, while Ta is the
air temperature. It is an indicator of the water and drought strain;
pluviometric coefficient [11]: IA = (N + 2P)/(N + 2S) where N
is the number of normal months, P is the number of rainy
months, and S is the number of arid months;
accessible humidity coefficient (MAI) [10] is the rapport of
certain precipitations and potential evapo-transpiration. A 50 %
29
probability is the optimal value for each advancement and

development study of crop fields;
soil humidity coefficient (SMI) [11] is the rapport of accessible
water at the capacity of available water from the root zone
directly reported to the potential evapo-transpiration during the
period of high request of water by agricultural plants critical
period;
soil balance equation [10]: R Q U E - W = 0, where R is
precipitation amount or irrigations, Q is discharge, U is the
drainage depth beyond the root zone, E is potential
evapotranspiration, whilst W is the chage in the soil water
reserve. The potential evapotranspiration is determined with the
aid of Thornthwaite formula or through Pennman method. It can
be calculated on a daily, decadal, monthly and annually basis.
The outcome of applying the comparative analysis on these agroclimatic coefficients of drought events assessment shows that actually they
define the major environmental factors, appointing the degree of agroclimatologic favourability of agricultural years for each and every crop
field.
Instead of conclusions
Agro-climatic parameters and indices are used in order to define the
potential climate of the agricultural areas of interest, spatial-temporal areas
of dryness or wetting, the depiction of years or season periods etc. The
theme of the article is one of teaching nature and by its very nature of
teaching approach must be comprehensive and systematic representing a
significant requirement to achieve a quality process.
Knowledge, selection and correct use of agro-climatic parameters
and indices is the first step in describing and assessing the drought
phenomenon, with a precise geographical location, all the more so as in our
country, of the approximately 14.7 million ha agricultural land, soils are
affected by the drought over long periods and consecutive years over an
area of about 7 million hectares of agricultural area (48% of the total) or
excess moisture in rainy years (about 4 million ha).
The effects of droughts are immediate in the vegetation carpet, and
affected vegetation reduces the protection scheme in terms of the erosion of
[6], and as a result the proposed inventory provides the theoretical nature
absolutely necessary in a future case study, whose subject is the detailed
analysis of the drought phenomenon.
30
References
Octavia, B. (1981) Fenomene meteorologice caracteristice ntregului an
uscciunea si drought, Editura Didactic and Pedagocic, Bucureti,
pp 42-50.
Ciulache, S., Ionac, N. (2003) Dicionar de meteorologie si
climatologie, Ars Docendi, Bucureti.
Cofas, E., Toma, E., Dumitru, S. (2012) Statistical macro regiomal
analysis for vegetal agricultural production sector, Conferina tiinific
internaional Eco Trend, Editura Academia Brncusi, pp. 310.
Dumitracu, M. (2006) Modificri ale peisajului n Cmpia Oltenia,
Editura Academiei Romne, Bucureti.
Grecu, F. et. al. (2012) Sisteme hidrogeomor-fologice din Cmpia
Romn. Hazard vulnerabilitate risc, Editura Universitii din
Bucureti.
Mateescu, E., Opriescu, R. (1997) Elaborarea sintezei privind
producerea fenomenelor meteorologice cu impact asupra regimului
agricol Institutul Naional de Statistic, 2006, Anuarul Statistic al
Romniei, Manuscris, INMH, Bucureti.
Oancea, I. (1996) Tratat de agricultur, Editura Ceres, Bucureti.
Sandu, I., Mateescu, E., Vtmanu, V.V. (2010) Schimbrile climatice n
Romnia si efectele asupra agriculturii, Ed. Sitech, Craiova.
Sndoiu, I. (2001) Agrometeorologie. Baze teoretice. Msurarea i
prelucrarea datelor, Editura Ceres, Bucureti.
Administraia Naional de Meteorologie, 2008, Clima Romniei, Editura
Academiei Romne, Bucureti.
Institutul Naional de Statistic, 2006, Anuarul Statistic al Romniei.
31
Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept:

Work Behaviour SelfSelf-assessment Scale
Teaching assistant Ivana KOVAEVI, PhD
Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade,
Professor Svetlana IZMI, PhD
Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade
Professor Dobrivoje MIHAILOVI, PhD
Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade,
Abstract
Inspired by the broader models of job performance assessment,
there is an attempt to develop and empirically verify an instrument for
measuring work behaviour. Defining job performance in the perspective of
individual behaviour leads scholars to integrate in their measuring
contextual activities that are not directly linked to the task. Work behaviour
self-assessment scale is theoretically based on five indicators divided into
two wider types of behaviours: related to the (1) results and to the (2)
manners of conduct. According to the results of Principal component
analysis, 64% of total variance was explained by eight main components,
labelled according to the related items. Scale distribution did not deviate
from normal with internal consistency of Cronbach`s alpha=.79. Finally,
some ideas for improving characteristics of the scale are provided.
Key words: work behaviour, operationalization, self-assessment
scale, Internal (consistency) reliability, Principal component analysis
1. Introduction
The performance appraisal is important activity in Human Resource
Management practice. Goals of performance assessments are manifold and
envelop two main domains of practice: selection (if a person is suitable for
job) and evaluation (if person perform it well) (Torrington, Hall, and Taylor,
2005). It consists of processes of defining, developing criteria and targeting
behavioural actions, developing or adopting appraisal instruments and
agents, then measuring, assessing and giving feedback with the objective to
improve performance (Casio and Aguinis, 2014). So, this is a process of
32
immense significance and complexity that requires clear theoretical

background and reliable methodological approach.
Acknowledging the theoretically postulated idea that job
performance should not be defined solemnly on achievements of employees,
there is an initiative to develop empirically verified scale for assessing the
concept of work behaviour that encompasses all activities leading to the
final accomplishments.
As a matter of fact, existing paradigm of conceptualizing job
performance considers wider framework. It includes all behaviours present
in work context leading to the specific achievement and describing the way
how work has been performed by employee (Jex and Britt, 2008). It
analyses not only the results but also the manner of engaging in activities
connected with the work process. It also takes into account different
behavioural episodes according to the level of relevancy for organizational
goals (Motowidlo, 2003).
We consider the fact that job performance comprises actions that go
beyond the frame of employment`s formal demands. Bialek and colleagues
(1977) claim that employees spend less than half of working hours engaged
in activities given in their job description. Therefore, work appraisals should
not be based on homogeneous, one-dimensional constructs. Rather, a more
complex method of assessment that incorporate all key processes involved
in achieving the work tasks, should be developed and applied.
Starting from the point of view that objective assessment of how
employees behave in the workplace setting is impossible without developing
a proper system of measuring, the purpose of this article is to propose one
concept of measuring work behaviour by developing a suitable
psychological instrument.
2. Research metodology for measuring work behaviour
2.1. Theoretical considerations
Motowidlo (Motowidlo, 2003) believes that there are, at least, two
conceptual and practical advantages of observing performance in the context
of individual`s behaviour, rather than linked to its results. First, there are
some situational factors that modify the effects. Second, there are some
psychological processes and principles that govern the course of action
during the performance of the tasks. Since performance is expected
organizational value of employees` contribution, results are seen as
conditions that are changed by it and behaviour is the means of contributing
organizational value by changing those conditions (through results).
33
2.1.1. The concept of work behaviour

Different conceptualizations of job performance and work behaviour
are present in literature. Some of them are relevant for this study and their
common qualities are universality and complexity. General definitions
enable to include in concept all those behaviours that are not directly
connected with concrete work tasks. Also, they cover these behaviours that
contribute, as well as those that peril, the achievement of professional and
organizational goals.
Campbell (1990) has categorized work behaviour according to the
direction of influence on organizational effectiveness as: (1) productive, that
contributes to the organization, and (2) counterproductive behaviours, that
impair organizational, and interests of its members. Accordingly, productive
work behaviours are related to the work performance, organizational
citizenship behaviour and innovation (Jex & Britt, 2008). On the other side,
different definitions of counterproductive behaviour could be integrated in
one broad definition that explains it as: total expected value to the
organization of behaviours that are carried out over a standard period of
time with the intention of hurting other individuals or the organization as a
whole and that have negative expected organizational value (Motowidlo,
2003, 48).
Models of work behaviour commonly distinguish behaviours that are
closely related to the work tasks and those that accompany performance. So,
Murphy (2004) differentiates work behaviour according to the course of
impact and its relation to the core activity, on those: (1) closely associated
with the task, (2) considering human relations, but also (3) causing
absenteeism, destructive and risk behaviours. Waldman and Spangler
(1989), for example, develops integrative model of work behaviour that
focuses on: personal characteristics (experience, abilities), effects (feedback
information, job security) and environmental factors. These models tend to
offer valid predictors. Work behaviour on individual level is seen as a
consequence of job complexity (task requirements), knowledge and
working skills (based on abilities and experience) and employee`s
consciousness (personal characteristic) while operating on job (Jex & Britt,
2008). Studies have confirmed that cognitive ability predicts better technical
skills and work effort, whereas some personal features are better predictors
of contextual work behaviours as discipline (Pulakos, Broman & Hough,
1988).
Similar, Borman and Motowidlo (1993) emphasis that there are two
sorts of work behaviours: (1) those directly linked with task performance
and (2) those called contextual. Task performance considers activities that
34
could be found in formal work description and refers to the working role.
Contextual behaviours contribute to the organizational effectiveness due to
the psychological, social and organizational work context. So, effects of
contextual activities are executed via impact on others, increasing personal
willingness to engage at work activities and through activities that has
impact on organizational resources. These contextual behaviours serve to
ease communication, sustain social interaction, reduce tension and
disturbing emotional reactions, and are of highly importance to the issue of
team work (Jex & Britt, 2008).
Van Scotter and Motowidlo (1996) describe the manner how
contextual work activities contribute to the organizational effectiveness by
shaping organizational and social environment that facilitate task activities.
It is believed that those contributions have general value that is present in
every each job and organization, while work activities linked to the task
varies from job to job. So, distinction between contextual and activities
tightly connected to the task, is of theoretical, as well as of practical
significance, due to the fact that they are probably determined by different
antecedents. Specific knowledge, skills and abilities are better determinants
of someones behaviour while completing job tasks. On the other hand,
dispositional factors are better predictors of contextual work behaviour.
Arvey and Murphy (1998) claims that one should be careful with the
idea of developing a new construct of contextual work activities. It defines
something that is not in the job description, but if we formalize it as part of
the job description, then it loses its specificity. However, researches shown
that this theoretical construct has its empirical confirmation (Coleman &
Borman, 2000). Factors linked to the job task, as well as, contextual ones,
independently, contribute to the work outcomes (Barrick & Mount, 2005).
Also, it was found that personal variables are in higher correlation with
contextual activities (Pulakos, Broman & Hough, 1988).
Finally, recognition of the existence of contextual work behaviour,
not strongly tied with formal work goal, yet essential for organizational
performance, requires some methodologically valid approach of measuring
its contribution. There is a review of various endeavours to include
contextual aspects into measuring tools. Those conceptions were inspiration
and background for the construction of our scale to be used in variety of
settings by mixing different theoretical concepts.
2.1.2. Conceptions of measuring work behaviour
Although it is not uncommon to assess job performance based on
one narrow specific aspect of work activity based on outcome, the idea of
35
perceiving job performance as a property of multiple, discrete behaviours

that occur over some span of time (Motowidlo, 2003, 39) is very popular.
As a matter of fact, defining a work process in behavioural terms enables
accessing and measuring it. As Nelson and Quick (2006) posted, measuring
the work outcome is an activity of appraising appropriateness and
effectiveness of someone`s work activities in specific context.
Consequently, different conceptions of measuring work behaviour
exist. Borman and Motowidlo (1993) are among the first scholars to claim
that there are two sorts of work activities both of particular importance for
task achievement: operative and contextual ones. Further, authors
distinguish five types of those, so called, contextual activities: (1) readiness
to voluntarily complete tasks that are not part of the formal job demands, (2)
persistence with additional enthusiasm and effort that is necessary for
successfully accomplish working goals, (3) supportative actions toward
colleagues and cooperation, (4) obeying organizational rules and procedures
even when it does not go in one`s behalf, (5) acceptance, support and protect
of organizational goals.
On the other hand, Coleman and Borman (2000) observe this
concept from the empirical point of view and parse it on 27 items from
which they extract 3 factors: (1) interpersonal support, (2) organizational
support and (3) consciousness and initiative related to work tasks.
Those behaviours that are not strongly tied with the formal work
goal and often called contextual became an inspiration for many researchers.
For example, in case that those actions are not part of the formal system of
appraisal and compensation, if they are rather optional and result of
employee`s initiative, then it is often seen as the phenomenon of
Organizational citizenship behaviour (OCB). It is first introduced by Organ
in 1977 to define those behaviours that are not part of the formal job
description and that are not prescribed by work role, but rather selfinitiative behaviour that contributes organizational effectiveness and benefit
and that are not directly and explicitly rewarded (Organ, 1988, 4). Also,
some distinctions are made between OCB directed toward the colleagues
(for example, expressing altruism) and toward the organization
(consciousness and loyalty).
Nevertheless, operationally defining work behaviour is not an easy
task. The main problems are its inherent multidimensionality and its
dependency on different factors. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly define
the subject, the criteria and purpose of appraisal and methods for
systematically observing targeted subjects and their behaviour on work.
Also, potential predictors, conditions facilitating or aggravating work
36
process, and epistemological problems of assessment (accuracy, reliability

and validity), should be considered.
Appraisal could be theoretical, informal or highly formalized with
significant consequences on compensation, promotion, retribution,
dismissing, selection, training, and so on.
According to the purpose we chose criteria, methods and sources of
assessment. Studies show that there are significant differences in evaluation
results in function of measures that are taken as criteria, job that are
evaluated, and also of purpose of evaluation (Nelson & Quick, 2006).
Although almost 95% of all appraisals in work context are based on
evaluations of superiors, it is believed that when evaluating OCB and
similar concepts, more relevant evaluators are subordinates and clients.
Also, in theoretically inspired researches, self-appraisal is acceptable
(Cardona & Espejo, 2002). The question of accuracy is highly dependent
not only on criteria but also on the appraiser.
On the other hand, reliability depends on phenomenon`s stability
which is not the case. It is believed that past work behaviour is a good
predictor of future work behaviour but it relies on the factor of experience.
So, the concept of dynamic criteria should be introduced, considering the
obvious fact that the work behaviour is changing over time. It is also one of
the reasons why correlation of two measures of job performance decreases
in function of time and it produces the, so called, problem of work
behaviour temporal instability (Sturman, Cheramie & Cashen, 2005).
2.2. Empirical considerations
2.2.1. Research goals and objectives
As it was previously said, the main objective of this paper was to
develop an instrument for measuring work behaviour that is strongly rooted
in theory and then verify its practical value and metric features through
application.
Inspired by theoretical ideas and methodological experience of other
researchers (Slemp, 2013; Kahya, 2007; Coleman & Borman, 2000), we
decided to develop an instrument for measuring work behaviour postulated
as a wider concept of job performance, based not only on its effects but
according to the idea of contextual relevancy. It was expected that it would
be able to measure the excellence of work behaviour in totality and in its
complexity. The additive nature and capability of instrument to give one
single measure was examined by alpha coefficient of internal reliability of
the scale.
37
2.2.2. Research procedure

After two preliminary versions of the scale, based on five
theoretically founded indicators, covering two different aspects of
behaviours (task related and contextual activities) we finally reached the
first complete version of - Work Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale.
Items were conceived as verbal stimuli that should provoke a
recollection of a relevant targeted behaviour. Instrument was shaped as five
degree Likert type scale. So, respondents should decide the intensity of their
agreement with claims. Appraisal of work behaviour is left on performers
themselves. It is justified in situation of theoretical goals of the study with
no practical implications on subjects what so ever (Cardona and Espejo,
2002).
An assumed structure of operationally defined concept distinguishes
at least two categories representing the work behaviour domains. First one
considers activities associated with main working processes and therefore
items should describe the manner of accomplishing professional tasks.
Second indicator should refer to the behaviours only indirectly associated
with job tasks. In this context, interaction with colleagues and attitudes
toward organization should be taken into account. It is important because it
was found that performance is very much dependent on those qualities. The
question of how many varieties of contextual activities exist remains open.
2.2.2.1. First step: defining a scale`s rationales
Work behaviour self-assessment scale is based on previously
mentioned Borman and Motowidlo`s concept of work behaviour (1993), as
well as on Coleman and Boreman`s empirical verification (2000). Some
items are inspired by Organ`s concept of citizenship behaviour (Organ,
1988).
Finally, five degree Likert type scale measures work behaviour by
taking into account behaviours related to the final job result (I), where
quality of work (1) is equally important (2 items) as quantity (2) of
accomplished tasks (2 items). Further, there are evaluations of episodes of
behaviour that are called contextual (II), explaining the approach to work
(manner in which work has been done), implicitly describing employees
attitudes toward job, colleagues and organization. Here, we distinguish
between (3) behaviours expressed during the task accomplishment - directly
connected with performing working tasks (core activities) (9 items), (4)
behaviours referred to the psycho-social (contextual activities) (7 items) and
(5) organizational aspects of work (contextual activities) (7 items).
38
Indicators of work behaviour that are directly attached to the job

performance refers to the employee`s persistence with enthusiasm, when
additional effort is necessary to accomplish the task, regardless the work
conditions. It includes taking an initiative to do whatever is necessary to
achieve goals even if they are not a part of the regular duties.
There are also tendencies to find extra tasks after fulfilling regular
obligations, developing individual knowledge and skills by ones own
means and resources. Also, accuracy, reliability and goal oriented qualities
should be mentioned. Accordingly, we could mention motivational aspects
in this context.
Psycho-social domain of work behaviour encompasses questions of
providing help to co-workers by coaching, advising, replacing and doing
some part of their tasks, adjusting to their schedules, offering emotional
support, as well as cooperation and courtesy.
It includes timely informing, expressing consideration, generating
motivation, respect and trust and similar aspects of behavior directed toward
the concrete coworker. Hence, this domain could be seen as related to the
notion of organizational citizenship behaviour. Behaviours contribute to the
whole organization by representing it with good image, voluntary
organizational promotion, loyalty even in crisis, consciously supporting
organizational mission and goals, willingly obeying organizational rules and
procedures are also considered in this conception.
2.2.2.2. Research sample and planned statistical analysis
Version of the scale was administered on 100 from five Belgrade IT
companies with the idea to revise and analyze metric characteristics of this
preliminary version of the scale. The theoretical validation and internal
consistency were considered in this iteration of scale construction process.
Work analysis shown that respondents are working on tasks of
similar complexity and content and socio-demographic questions revealed
that their educational backgrounds are alike.
Actually, they are engineers employed on positions of IT managers,
system administrators and software developers. Gender structure is slightly
biased, with 62% of males and 38% of females (Figure 1).
The postulated structure of work behaviour concept was tested by
statistical procedure of Factor analysis, precisely, with method of Principal
components that extracts components that share common variance from
original set of items (Kovai, 1998). The idea was to examine whether the
actual structure of an instrument was similar to the theoretically expected
one.
39
Figure 1. Diagram of sample gender structure
Although work behaviour is complex and multidimensional concept,

the main idea is to form a unique additive scale that is able to give one
general measure. So, the ambiguous position, so frequent in a psychological
assessment tools (Fajgelj, 2005), should be satisfied with the reasonable
number of factors (phenomenon indicators) and with the relatively high
level of Cronbach`s alpha coefficient.
3. Results of instrument analysis
3.1. Testing an internal consistency of Work Behaviour SelfAssessment Scale
One sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that we could retain
null hypothesis due to the fact that there is no statistically significant
deviance from normal distribution (AS=99.81; SD=11.47; N=100; p=.43). It
is an important parameter if we want to analyze the internal reliability of the
scale, as normal distribution is a prerequisite for use of parametric statistics.
Internal consistency for 27 items given in the Likert type scale, was
Cronbach`s alpha =.79.
It represents the measure of homogeneity and internal reliability
(low level of obtained measurement error). This measure could indicate the
level of excellence of someone`s work behaviour as it is seen by him. This
measure could be used in studies as an indicator of work behaviour and it
could be associated with other psychological variables, as it is the case with
one recent study where it is correlated with satisfaction (Kovaevi, izmi,
2012). Nevertheless, it is possible to approach to the instrument as it is a
composite of different dimensions that describe the content of the concept.
40
3.2. Analysing a content of Work Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale

Principal component analysis is commonly used for constructive
validation, i.e. comprehension of the structure of operationally defined
notion. Intercorellations between manifest variables (27 original items of
Work behaviour scale) imply lesser number of latent variables that are
extracted with retaining the maximum possible variability at the same time
(Kovai, 1998, 187). Based on Guttman-Kaisser reliability criteria, eight
orthogonal components were extracted (varimax rotation). They give
approximation of variation structure of original variables. Total explained
variance is slightly above 64 %, which is rather satisfactory. Except first
component that explains about 10% of total variance, components have
almost the same amount of explained sample differences. Percentages of
possible variances are given in the Table 1.
In the Table 1 names of the components were also given. They are
created according to the content of the items with whom each component is
saturated. Componential saturation with the scale`s item is also given in the
table.
Table no. 1: Percentages of explained variance with Principal
component analysis and components` saturation with items
Items/components
Percentage of explained
variance (#64.03%)
1. I have better results
than my colleagues
2. Quality of work that
I`ve done usually goes
beyond superiors
`expectations
3. I usually complete
more tasks than average
4.In my business hours I
overcome organizational
norms
5. I try to complete job
despite the obstacles
6. It is important to me to
finish job within expected
deadline
7. I usually avoid to take
more tasks than it is
II
III
IV
VI
VII
VIII
10.16 8.76 8.14 8.12 7.81 7.29 7.02 6.72

.01
-.13
.16
.07
.85
.01
.12
-.6
.05
.25
-.42
-.13
.28
.21
.08
-.19
.36
-.04
-.45
.01
.53
-.08
.14
-.12
-.11
.83
-.19
-.01
.02
.63
.15
-.04
-.09
.03
-.06
.11
.2
.69
-.01
.09
.1
-.28
-.25
.23
.02
-.11
.10
-.1
-.06
.1
-.02
-.69
41
Items/components
required
8. It is not hard for me to
work overtime just to
finish work adequately
9. Sometimes I come late
at work
10. Sometimes I can`t
continue to work unless I
spend more time on break
11. If I finish my job
before the end of the work
time, I usually find myself
some extra tasks
12. I never stay after
work, unless it is
explicitly requested by
superiors
13. I am willing to attend
some extra course If I find
it useful for my
professional development
14. It is not hard for me to
help a colleague if I
realize that he has too
much to do
15. I always share
information with my
colleagues
16. If any of my colleague
have some problem I am
willing to help
17. Experience taught me
not to believe my
colleagues
18. I often have conflicts
with my colleagues
19. I try to protect
colleagues from my bad
temper
20. I am not eager to
change my plans in order
to coordinate with co42
II
III
IV
VI
VII
VIII
.18
.08
-.1
.12
.08
.16
-.08
.73
.04
.03
-.03
-.19
-.13
.69
-.09
.2
.08
-.04
.28
-.06
-.05
.70
.29
-.15
-.11
.48
-.06
.15
.32
.34
.14
.16
-.58
.15
.09
-.01
-.21
.11
-.54
.57
.41
.16
.05
.05
.31
-.05
.08
.29
.35
-.38
.17
-.16
.30
-.28
.14
.24
.62
-.29
.09
-.09
-.06
.02
-.13
.21
.72
-.27
.11
-.03
.11
-.25
.1
.05
-.18
.75
-.05
-.13
.14
-.07
-.11
-.21
-.16
.76
-.05
.03
.09
.06
-.14
.54
.09
-.29
-.13
-.14
.01
.35
-.26
-.27
.04
.5
-.24
.17
-.36
.32
Items/components
workers
21. I enjoy casual
activities that company
organize
22. I often overlook some
important information in
media about the company
I work for
23. It seems that my
acquaintances know
better than me what is
happening in my
company
24. When I speak about
my organization with
people outside the
organization, I mention
only positive things
25. It bothers me when
people criticize what we
do in our organization
26. I do not know what
should happen so that I
decide to leave the
organization
27. Even when I do not
agree with organizational
procedures and rules I
strive to obey them
II
III
IV
VI
VII
VIII
.67
.23
-.07
.08
-.15
-.13
-.05
.22
-.09
-.10
-.03
.07
.07
.12
.78
-.08
-.39
-.21
.1
-.17
-.15
-.32
.47
.17
-.10
.14
-.1
.79
.08
-.04
-.04
.03
-.01
.14
.04
.72
-.14
.12
.13
.20
.05
-.19
-.15
.70
-.38
.01
.10
.09
.28
-.04
.51
.05
-.08
-.33
-.05
Componential saturation, given in the Table no. 1., provide us with

the information how this components should be comprehended, as well as
how real structure of theoretically conceived composition of scale looks
like.
First component that explains about 10% of total variance is
saturated with items which classification in theoretically defined indicators
is rather heterogeneous. Here, we have an item of work quality that
overcome the expectations of superiors and work persistence despite the
obstacles, but also a high saturation with items provoking enjoyment in
informal interactions with colleagues and effort to protect colleagues from
personal dissatisfaction, which seems to be mistakenly categorized in
43
organizational aspects. Also, there is a relatively expressed saturation with

items that describe a manner of performing task and willingness for
professional development. Due to its multiplicity, we named this category
(I) The general work behaviour indicator (items: 21, 5, 2, 12, 13, 19).
Second component is explained with four items that mainly refer to
the relations with colleagues collegiality and punctuation (meeting
deadlines). So, this component is called (II) Collegiality and devotion
(items: 16, 6, 15, 11) in contrast with third component that is saturated by
items with negative connotation of collegiality and psycho-social aspects:
distrust and conflicts with colleagues and unwillingness to help. So it is
called (III) Uncooperativeness (items: 18, 17, 14). Fourth component is
strictly defined with organizational aspects of work behaviour, expressing
positive attitude toward organization and readiness to protect its image and
interest. Thus, it is called (IV) Organizational loyalty (items: 24, 25, 26,
27). These items could be incorporated with the organizational aspect of the
concept of organizational citizenship behaviour.
Fifth indicator is highly saturated with two items referring to the
quality and quantity of work done, so we named it as (V) Efficiency and
effectiveness indicator (items: 1, 4). It is almost opposite to the component
defined by items indicating tendency toward absenteeism that is labeled as
(VI) Skiving indicator (items: 10, 9, 20). Seventh factor is not consistent.
There is an item articulating indifference and lack of information toward the
organization and organizational public representation and an item about the
quantity of work done that goes beyond average. We called this factor (VII)
Organizational indifference (items: 22, 3, 23). At the end, eighth
component is characterized by willingness to work overtime and
undertaking tasks that goes beyond one`s responsibility. So, it is a question
of (VIII) Personal conscientiousness indicator (items: 8, 7).
4. Disscusion and conclusion
Learnt componential structure of instrument could be improved by
analyzing the saturations of components with representative items,
expecting to, by removing or replacing some items attain higher internal
consistency and better explanation of the concept. As a matter of fact, this
operational definition of work behaviour could give a good insight to the
real content of the notion.
It indicates that it is a subject of complex composition that integrate
some personal aspects as conscientiousness trait (VIII), attitude toward
organization (IV, VII), motivation and inclination to counterproductive
behaviour (VI, III), as well as organizational citizenship like behaviours (II,
44
IV). Also, there is a measure of efficiency and efficacy as the description of

finial result (V). There is also a general factor of job performance with the
highest impact on work behaviour`s variance and on evaluation (I). This
general factor could be seen as if it expresses the manner how the work is
done. It explains mainly contextual activities.
Finally, we might see this operationally defined work behaviour
concept in the theoretical framework of Borman and Motowidlo (1993)
where there is a distinction between task and contextual behaviours, with
the conception of Borman and colleagues (2001) who categorized job
performance into a personal, organizational support and conscientious
initiative. Consciousness is also a predictor of job performance in Barrick an
Mount`s (2005) model of performance. We should not forget the Organ`s
(1988) concept of organizational citizenship behaviour and Coleman and
Boreman`s (2000) methodological endeavours. Afterwards, there is an idea
for further researches based on this conception trying to conduct a
confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling similar to
the existing contemporary attempts where the idea of proactive approach to
job is considered (Slemp, Vella-Brodrick, 2013). As a matter of fact, those
researchers distinguish three domains of crafting: task, cognitive and
relational, with the idea to introduce three factorial concept of job
performance and correlate them with relevant variables.
Similarly, Kahya (2007) proposed a concept of following
dimensions: task performance, interpersonal and organizational citizenship
and job dedication, associated with criteria of physical effort, environmental
conditions and hazards. Finally, there is a plan to formulate an instrument
structured by lesser aspects, so it is necessary to reduce number of
components gained by further statistical analysis and by purifying the
original concept.
Although scale could be considered applicable according to the fact
that its structure relatively coincides with expected theoretical structure of
the concept, the question of its final composition remains open. As a matter
of fact, validity of the concept is not yet systematically analyzed and due to
the fact that it considers multiple correlations with different related
instruments and real observed behaviour, we left this important metric
aspect for future researches. Also, objectivity issue could be examined by
correlating the results gained by self-assessment and assessments from other
sources. There is also a potential for gender issue to take into consideration
and the question of different job characteristics.
References
45
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47
Evolution of the Inflation and Price index

Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU, PhD.
Ligia PRODAN, PhD. Student
Ec. Emilia STANCIU
Abstract
This paper presents the evolution of the consumer prices, which in
turn is a measure if the inflation. By using official statistical data, the
authors synthesize the main characteristics of the price indicators. The
research emphasizes the the divergent evolution between the consumer price
index, as an overall and in structure, in comparison with the evolution and
appreciation of the national currency.
Key words: inflation, price, deficit, consumer, goods
The comparison between the datasets related to January 2014 and
December 2013 outlines the fact that consumer prices increased by 0.9%.
The factors that caused this evolution are the increase of prices for goods
(+0.9% for both food and non-food categories) and the prices for services
(tariffs, that grew by 0.7%).
By analyzing the structure of each factor, it can be observed that the
food products components recorded increases for the following groups:
vegetables and tinned vegetables (+6.4%), for fruit and tinned fruit (+1.6%),
for alcoholic beverages (+0.5%), while for eggs (-0.6%), edible oil (-0.2%),
and sugar (-0.1%) there were slight decreases.
The factor Non-food goods was characterized by the following
evolutions: growth in the case of tobacco, cigarettes (+3.0%), fuel (+1.1%),
electric energy, gas and central heating (+0.9%).
The increase of services tariffs was determined by higher tariffs for
telephony (+1.3%), water, sewerage, sanitation (+1.3%). The industrial
production prices remained at the same level in January 2014. The factor
Mining and quarrying records higher prices in January 2014 as against
December 2013, by 2.4%, because prices for mining support service
48
activities, extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and for mining of
coal and lignite grew.
The manufacturing sector also recorded a slight growth of prices,
with 0.4% as against the previous months. The factors that determined the
increase were the prices pertaining to manufacture of tobacco products
(+2.9%), in manufacture of basic metals (+1.8%), other manufacturing n.e.c.
(+1.6%), manufacture of wearing apparel (+1.3%), printing and
reproduction of recorded media (+1.3%), manufacture of wood and of
products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of
straw and plaiting materials (+1.2%), manufacture of coke and refined
petroleum products (+1.1%), manufacture of machinery and equipment
n.e.c. (+1.0%), manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and
pharmaceutical preparations (+0.9%)
The sectors manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
(-0.7%) and for manufacture of textiles (-0.2%) recorded decreases.
The analysis for 2013 shows that by broad industrial groups,
significant price increases were experienced for the intermediate goods
industry (+0.9%), durable goods industry (+0.5%) and the current use goods
industry (+0.3%). The energy industry and the capital goods industry scored
a decrease of 1.0%, respectively 0.1%.
An important element to consider when evaluating the economic
evolution of a country1 over a period of time consists of the way the
consumer prices developed, both on an overall basis and by groups of goods
and services, as well as of the dual comparison with the planned, forecasted
target and the outcomes of the previous year. In the context of the steady
concern as regards the adjustment of the system of the income collecting,
based on the unique quota of taxation, as well as bringing the Fiscal Code to
the level of correlative terms, in line with the actual situation of the country,
in 2010-2013 there are a number of events occurring and worth to be
outlined.
First of all, the discussions between the Romanian Government and
the I.M.F., have been finalized and the installments out of the granted credit
were allocated. Practically, all of them, over 20 billion euro, were integrally
transferred. There have been a number of elements which the I.M.F.,
intransigent and willing to see a market economy in action, did not agree
with. Thus, for instance, there have been many concerns in respect of how
to convince the I.M.F. to agree with a higher deficit of GDP or to keep on
Anghel, M.G. et al. (2014) Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product Evolution,
Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment/Nr. 4/2014
49
accepting the situation of having certain subsidies at the level of the national
economy.
The second essential phenomenon of the years 2010-2013 is given by
the divergent evolution between the consumer price index2, as an overall and
in structure, in comparison with the evolution and appreciation of the national
currency, the new leu, against the two currencies which are forming the
foreign exchange basket, respectively Euro and USD.
Since a couple of years, as a consequence of the policy run by the
National Bank of Romania, which undertook the responsibility of targeting
and fixing the inflation at certain levels, the foreign exchange evolution of
the national currency followed a trajectory which, from a economic and
financial point of view, proved to be a positive one but, meantime,
generated a negative effect on the Romanian exports, or for those working
abroad and those living in the country, being meantime non-conform with
the actual economical situation of the country.
On this background, in 2010-2012 we are facing periods showing a
slight appreciation of the national currency, in contrast with the increase
recorded by the inflation rate, on the overall basis and in its structure by
goods and services. In 2012 it was recorded, on the background of political
instability, the most serious deprecation of the national currency. Without
economic support, this negative trend will continue.
The theory teaches us that an important factor as regards the
evaluation of the way the inflation is developing consists of the monetary
mass in circulation.
There are two contradictory evolutions which we could identify from
this point of view. On the one side, the increase of the consumption
propensity of the population and, hence, the imperative requirement for
steps meant to stop this tendency.
Thus, at a first stage, the interests for the population deposits have
been reduced after which, in order to improve the attractiveness of saving,
they have been increased again aiming a sole purpose, respectively
tempering the population propensity to consumption.
The austerity steps being taken have stopped, in a natural way, the
population consumption with immediate effect on the economic growth and
deterioration of the standard of life. The revival measures of salaries and
pensions, but also other social attempts, did not succeeded to improve, upon
expectations, the incomes and subsequently the quality of life.
Diaconu, A. (2012) Considerations of National Accounts Deflators, Romanian

Statistical Review Supplement. Issue 4/2012
50
On the other hand, in its concern as to targeting the inflation, the

National Bank aimed to implement and control, permanently, the evolution
of the foreign exchange rate, consequently the position of the national
currency against the two foreign currencies euro and dollar.
Price increase in July 2013
percents
Increase of consumption prices in
July 2012,
against:
June 2013
December 2012
Indicators
Total
Foodstuff *)
Non-foodstuff
Services
-0,3
1,7
-1,6
0,5
0,3
-0,1
3,2
1,9
Average increase of
consumption prices during
the period
1.I- 31.VII.
1.I- 31.VII.
2012
2013
0,3
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
0,3
0,5
0,3
*) Including drinks.
Another typical element is given by the steady concern of the

Executive and, mainly, of the National Bank, to observe the goals declared
as regards the inflation targeting3. Despite all steps being taken targeting
slipped out of an actual control, lining up outside the forecasts, from 2010
until June 2012. Among the non-foodstuffs recording a high average
increase there are the natural gas, the thermo energy, tobacco and cigarettes,
electric energy, water sewage sanitation, hygiene and cosmetics, postal
services, inter-urban transport. Another possible analysis on the increase of
the consumer price index might take into consideration the influences of the
administrated prices which recorded an average increase of over 2,9%.
Consumption price indexes, 2001-2013
- December previous year= 100 133
- %130,3
128
123
118
113
108
114,1
109,3
108,6
104,9
106,6
109
107,9
104,7
104,2
105,33104,5
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
*
103
117,8
Anghel M.G. (2014) Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation
between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment
Nr. 1
51
A comparative survey on the annual average inflation in the EU

member countries during the period 2010-2013 shows that, along with
Hungary, Romania was recording a high level of the inflation annual
average level. If proceeding to a careful analysis, we should note also that
there are only three-four groups of goods which recorded a particular
increase and generated the impossibility of hitting the forecasted target.
Thus, for instance, the consumer taxes (taxes on vice), respectively the
excises on alcohol and tobacco products, as well as luxury goods or
products such as natural gas or thermo-energy, have been extremely high,
having a major influence on the rhythm of increase of the consumer price
index (inflation). At this point, there are a lot of other comments to be done
but for a synthetic picture of the consumer price index we are holding
present analysis only.
References
Anghel, M.G. et al. (2014) Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product
Evolution, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment/Nr. 4/2014
Anghel M.G. (2014) Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the
Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista
Romn de Statistic Supliment Nr. 1
Anghelache, C. (2013). Romnia 2013. Starea economic sub povara
Anghelache, C. (2012). Romnia 2012. Starea economic in criz perpetu,
Anghelache, C. (2008). Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic, Editura
Economic, Bucureti
Diaconu, A. (2012) Considerations of National Accounts Deflators,
Romanian Statistical Review Supplement. Issue 4/2012
Goodwin, N.R. (2008) Macroeconomics for the Twenty-First Century,
Tufts University, series GDAE Working Papers no. 03-02
Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) Statistic pentru afaceri, Editura
ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, ISBN 978-606-647-312-5
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
*** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 112/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 112/2012, 1-12/2013, 1/2014, National Institute of Statistics
52
Three Twin Sciences,

Sciences, Born with the First Census
Associate Professor Gheorghe SVOIU, Ph.D.
Lecturer Mariana BNU, Ph.D.
Lecturer Mihaela GADOIU, Ph.D.
University of Piteti, Faculty of Economic Sciences
Abstract
The hyphotesis of this paper is based on the idea that three sciences
have been born during the same event or ancient period: the first census.
These three memorable sciences are statistics, demography and
accountancy. This paper presents an brief analysis of the common history of
these three sciences. The results of this analysis represents the basis for a
comparative study in the future about the common moments for the
multidisciplinary investigations such as the census.
Key words: alphabet, census, statistics, demography, accountancy.
JEL classification: C46, E16, J11, H83, N33.
1. Introduction
The occurrence of proto-statistics or old statistics and of the first
specific data and information are related to the census as a periodic set of
state records concerning the population (subsequently defined by Romans as
census or by periodic resumption census), land, agriculture, ships built,
navigation, and have an attested oldness of approximately five to six
thousand years. Ancient civilizations from the Mesopotamian, Egyptian,
Chinese, and Greek one to the Roman Empire, as well as the whole Middle
Ages do not indicate the systematization of concepts, principles, methods,
techniques and instruments, able to prove the scientific nature of statistics.
Between the first Roman census, from the time of King Servius Tullius
(6th century b.C.) and the English cadastre, performed between 1083 and
1086, in the time of William the Conqueror, no clear idea about the
independent nature of statistics as a science appears. For nearly four
millennia, statistics a was a mere tool for the practical orientation of
managers, providing them with quantitative assessments of the number of
inhabitants and their financial power for taxing purposes, as well as
forecasts as realistic as possible of the military potential. They were
followed by the descriptive statistics or the description of the state, a first
53
manifestation as a science, developed by the European universities, the

statistics of the English political arithmeticians school or the stage of the
analytical approach through a mathematical tool of an unprecedented
simplicity and especially through the identification of the first regulations,
by the first statistician as scientist (John Graunt), statistical classicism or the
inductive statistics determined by the emergence and development of the
probability theory, modern statistics, crystallized around the Anglo-Saxon
school of mathematical statistics, and through the birth, in 1924 of the
survey theory and the official recognition of the advantages of the selective
research in 1934, by the English Royal Satistical Society we actually entre
the modern statistics age.
Statistics and demography are inseparable. They were born in the
same day: the day of the first census This is a statement of the late
French professor Daniel Villey that has already become famous. In this
context, if we analyse more thoroughly, it seems that there was a third twin
science, borne in the same day, namely accounting.
The reasons concerning their common origin are given by the nature
of the information required at any census, whether ancient or modern. An
etymologic approach of demography is strictly related to the significance of
the two words of Greek origin composing it, namely demos (Greek
) people and graphe (gr.) or graphos (Greek ) (description) writing. A first meaning would lead to a broader concept of
writing about the human population. A second meaning would be that of
science, whose object is the human population, as a clearly delimited system
benefiting from relative autonomy, where the emphasis is on state and level
variables, the inputs and outputs of the system described and especially
structural changes on dependencies, interdependencies, associations and
correlations among the characteristic variables of the population.
According to the specificity of its object, the demographic science,
stricto sensu or in its narrow meaning, studies, via statistical and
mathematical methods, the human populations and their derived variables,
focusing on the actual multiplication capacity of the human population, on
the fertility, on the quantification of both individual disappearances or on
the mortality, and on the individual appearances or on the birth rate, as well
as on quantifying the results of the territorial movements of human
individuals or their migration. According to the historical, anthropological,
statistical, mathematical, biological and biometric sociological, medical and
genetic, actuarial, ecological interdisciplinarity of its object, the
demographic science, latu sensu or broadly, also studies a multitude of
socio-economic variables such as those defining social mobility (between
54
the quality of employed and unemployed person, between the position of

active and inactive person, among the various occupational statuses, human
professions and occupations), the structure of the population according to a
wide variety of individual or combined social and economic criteria,
actually identifies and measures the influence of the social and economic
factors, which influence all these appearances and disappearances
generically defined under the established name of demographic phenomena,
as well as the multiple correlations between population and economy,
population and ethnography, population and medicine or genetics,
population and religion, population and resources, population and
environment, population and mathematics (including actuarial mathematics
in the spectacular life insurance area), population and sociology, population
and anthropology or history, etc.
The accountancy emerged correlated with the data concerning the
property and welfare also requested at the census. Also, any goods exchange
was mentioned as a flow of the performed transactions and of their results.
The incipient barter economy did not have techniques able to foster the
development of accounting, but with the emergence of the currency is
developed somewhat empirically along with the accounting, although
limited to recording payments and receipts and at the presentation of the
cash balance at a certain historical moment. Great ancient civilizations (the
Babylonian, the Chinese, the Egyptian, the Greek and the Roman ones) thus
offered through the census the premises of the emergence and of the
development from a common tree of the three twin sciences statistics,
demography and accountancy, in discontinuous, diverse forms, which were
not rigorously regulated until the Romans, but having an exceptional
potential. The emergence of the three sciences is preceded by the writing of
the numbers and of the alphabet.
2. Historical and cultural landmarks of the three sciences
2.1 Brief history of Statistics

A brief history of the statistical science requires briefly covering
several stages starting with the old statistics or pre-statistics attested as early
as 5000 years ago and that lasted nearly 4 millennia as a practical
orientation tool for managers. The descriptive stage, or the stage of the
description of the state is the first manifestation of statistics as a science in
the modern meaning of the word. The German school founded by Hermann
Conring (1606-1681), the author of the first descriptive statistics course,
entitled Notatia rerum publicorum (1660) uses the word statistics, as a Latin
or Italian status-type derivative as statista, whose meanings of situation,
status or state and also of politician versed in the affairs of state are
55
metamorphosed in the name of a new science. The descriptive stage is also

strongly related to Gottfried Achenwall (1719-1772), the fecund spirit of the
Gottingen school, the scientist who, among other things, popularized the
concept of statistics by using it with the meaning of in-depth knowledge of
the respective and compared situation (status) of each state, while his
professor Martin Schmeitzel (1679-1747), a native of Braov had apparently
invented it, and A.L. von Schlzer (1735-1809), the most faithful disciple of
Achenwall and his successor at the university department, provided it with
the academic brilliance through the famous aphorism statistics is history at
rest, the statistic history in movement. A.L. von Schlzer is the one who
discovered that statistics cannot be conceived or defined outside numbers,
consolidating the essence of statistics through numerical determinations.
The descriptive statistical knowledge in this long Middle Ages
period is a phased process of understanding, coordinating or adapting and
anticipating the variation of the external world through the description of the
state, but also by understanding its past, by the formal and less profound
correlation, by adapting past events to the present time and easy
anticipations on short and medium-term. The objective of the descriptive
statistical knowledge or of the descriptive scientific approach is to know the
variation of a changing world, temporally, spatially and organizationally
finite (the economic life, the social life, the actual political life, the prosaic
date or the ephemeral indicator) rather that the series of territorial and longterm data or the string of real variants the normal or asymmetric empirical
distribution, together with all the amazing internal laws hidden under the
veil of numbers. The statistical descriptive approach is essentially total
(exhaustive) and its root is almost exclusively the census and the statistical
monograph is the main tool for the description of the state and Dimitrie
Cantemir remains the first Romanian thinker of descriptive statistics due to
his paper Descriptio Moldaviae...
If the descriptive statistics was preponderantly oriented towards
information and description through information, the school of the political
arithmetic of the English political arithmeticians opens the excessively
pragmatic stage of the statistical science, providing the premises for
emphasizing regularities in the social and economic phenomena and for
formulating regularities or even predictions, prefiguring the essence of
modern statistics. John Graunt (1620-1674) thus becomes the first modern
statistician of the modern scientific world, initiating the quantity scientific,
methodological exploration, of a fertile variation field such as the
demographic one, previously non-confronted but rather merely recorded, in
order to formulate pertinent quality-related conclusions not only descriptive
56
or spatial ones, but also especially, temporal ones. John Graunt actually
marks the year of birth of statistics as a science, by the appearance of his
paper Bills of mortality, in 1662 and by the huge impact, in the next
decade, through the five successive editions (enviable success to this day).
The complete title Graunts paper is Natural and political observations
upon the bills of mortality chiefly with reference to the government, religion,
trade, growth, air, diseases etc. of the City of London. From the dedication
of this memorable paper, dedication to the Chairman of the British Royal
Society we can infer the importance and originality of his discoveries: I
conceive, That it doth not ill become a Peer of the Parliament or Member of
his Majesties Council,, to consider That the irreligious Proposals of some,
to multiply people by Polygamy, is withal irrational, and fruitless, That the
troublesome seclusions in the Plague-time are not a remedy to be purchased
at vast inconveniences, That the greatest Plagues of the City are equally,
and quickly repaired from the Country, that the wasting of Males by Wars
and Colonies do not prejudice the due proportion between them
and Females, That London, the Metropolis of England, is perhaps a Head
too big for the Body and possibly too strong, That this Head grows three
times as fast as the Body unto which it belongs, That the Trade, and
very City of London, removes Westward... The sources of the scientific
training of this first statistician and demographer, at the same time, where
the method of observation, formulated by the natural history of Francis
Bacon, the method of accounts, or more generally, the method of the double
recording into the accounts (or of the double entry as it was called at the
time by its author, Luca Paciolo), the balance method and an overall (demoeconomic) concept of the society. John Graunt is honored today for the
accuracy of his statistical thinking, with which he discovered the first
scientific regularities and unifirmities, and also for revealing the
possibilities of prdicting the analysed phenomena, and he was recognised
for three exceptional merits, in formulating numeric results, then in using
statistical and demographic analysis procedures, but, especially in the
originality of the thinking and working method. The English political
arithmeticians were also the first demographers, inevitably providing their
statistical science with demographic valences. With Johann Peter Sssmilch
(1707-1767), who succeeded in synthesizing political arithmetic by
carefully analysing and investigating the explanation of the phenomena of
the human life, by formulating hypotheses about regularities and finally
regularities of models or theories governing populations, by correlating
demographic, social and economic phenomena, by the dynamic examination
of the proposed theoretical models, by the critical selection and assessment
57
of data, the process of defining statistics as a science was completed. The

quantity or numeric approach is extended by the systemic vision of Johann
Peter Sssmilch. This brilliant and solitary German meteor marked the
defeat of the descriptions specific to the German school, by the political
arithmetic or the English pragmatism and intuition. After his death,
statistics was completely established as a science and was about to enter its
classical and profoundly inductive period.
The emergence of the probability theory and the formulation of the
theorem of the law of large numbers, by Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705) in the
paper Ars conjectandi, the description of the normal distribution function by
Friedrich Karl Gauss (1775-1855) and Pierre-Simon Laplace (1740-1827),
the development by Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) of the subjective
probability theory and of the statistical interference based on it, the
description by Simeon Denis Poisson (1781-1840) of the distribution of the
rare events by their specific law are a few representative moments of the
period of maturation of the classical or inductive statistics. The application
of the probability theory to the study of the social phenomena was initiated
by Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874), a Belgian statistician, the creator of the
controversial "average man".
The modern statistics stage is crystallized around the Anglo-Saxon
school of mathematical statistics, of the International Statistics Congresses,
beginning with 1853, but also of the International Statistics Institute in
1885, as a result of the generalization of the operation of the national
statistics institutions. The universal coordinates of modern statistics are
Oxford, Cambridge and London, the publicity ones Biometrika and Annals
of Eugenics, and the institutional corollary of the Royal Statistical Society.
The creators of modern statistics, from Karl Pearson (1857-1936), Francis
Galton (1822-1911), Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962), Arthur Lyon
Bowley (1869-1957), Francis Ysidro Edgeworth (1845-1926), William
Sealy Gosset known under the pseudonym of Student(1876-1937),
Charles Eduard Spearman (1883-1945), George Udny Yule (1871-1951) to
Maurice Kendall (1907-1983) extended the application of the statistical
science to the most diverse areas. Numerous methods and tools took over
and immortalized their names and contributions or the mark of their
statistical thinking in the scientific research.
In 1924, the International Statistical Institute favours the survey
method and the representativeness of the samples and thus draws attention
on the advantages resulting from the application of the representative
method (World Statistics Congress, Rome 1925). However, Jerzy Neyman
(1894-1981), American mathematician and statistician of Polish origin and
58
its exposition, held in 1934, before the members of the famous Royal
Statistical Society, was necessary to officially record the birth of the modern
survey theory. The scientific use of statistics and the employment of the
professional statistician become an even more acute necessity after the
resounding failure of the magazine Literary Digest, in the presidential
elections of 1936, in the U.S.A., which failure had been caused by the
dilettantism of its opinion polls. From 1938, England and France shift to the
oeganization of public opinion survey institutes. The statistical problems are
now the ones of assessment, specification and distribution, in addition to the
substantiation of the statistical inference sampling methods. Completeness
yields to the inference.
The evolution of statistical research and the diversification of the
stages composing it in relation to the other types of research continued and
continues today. The statistics of the second half of the 20th century lends to
the other sciences its own concepts and principles, methods and techniques,
tools and tests (which are in a outstanding facelift). Claude Shannons
(1916-2001) and Warren Weavers (1894-1978) mathematical theory,
predicted by the theory of consonantiste psychology of tefan Odobleja
(1902-1978) and followed by the theory of informational energy of Octav
Onicescu (1892-1983) or of the entropic information of Nicolae GeogescuRoegen (1906-1994), informational symmetry and the balanced use of
information are a few aspects of the extended contemporary stage of
statistics. The predominant meaning of science of the statistics of the last
three centuries is also the result of the unanimous recognition of the fact that
it has exceeded the stage of incipient science whose body includes laws,
which has explanatory capacity and the skill to prepare methods, models
and theories (protoscience). The statistical science and its research
characteristic to the new millennium use explicit assumptions, repeatable
processes under the name of methds, accurate observation and measuring
methods under the name of techniques and tools, and mathematical support
for the processing and interpretation of its results.
With an institutional tradition of more than a century and a half, with
continuous participations of the International Statistical Institute, the first
journal of statistics, Statistical Annals, founded in 1860, with the creation of
a first modern European census in the period 1859 March 1860, and of
the famous census performed in 1930, whose archives were requested in
Berlin too, due to the originality of the solution in solving simultaneous
ethic problem through the maternal language, the religious membership and
the citizenship, with the construction of statistical tools, comparable in
terms of utility with the ones existing in the international practice, of the
59
type of Argus price indices, with statistical theory papers as valuable as the
Statistical method of Nicolae Georgescu-Roegen or of the Actuarial
mathematics treatise of Gheorghe Mihoc (1906-1981), with managers of the
national statistical institute such as Sabin Manuil (1894-1964) and Anton
Golopenia (1909-1951), with its many academic personalities who
influenced the international statistical thinking from Dimitrie Gusti (18801955), to Octav Onicescu or tefan Odobleja, the Romanian statistical
school had a contribution correctly assessed as innovative and recognized as
substantial in the universal statistical heritage.
2.2. Brief history of the writing, of the numbers and of the alphabet
or the demographic beginnings
Starting from the observation that statistics and demographics and
accounting are initially separated by writings on various populations
(including the human ones) and property or welfare, based on a widely used
alphabet, it is natural to identify their emergence in parallel with the
moment of the first writing or of the first alphabet, temporarily revitalizing
such a difficult historical problem, rather than to try to explain it
completely. The European origin of the first alphabet is generally accepted,
thus being recognized that the first symbolic and especially accessible
literary writing, the Phoenician one dating from 900-800 B.C. The human
individual, man in general has continually sought adequate means of
exteriorising his brain complexity. If we validate the assumptions of Jacques
van Ginneken, then no articulate language was before the writing, but
writing rather appeared together with the primitive language of gestures. In
other words, the man began to speak, tilting the shoulders, shaking hands
and uttering guttural sounds, but simultaneously he drew signs, symbols,
more or less randomly, on the ground, plants, snow, sand, or he read the
signs left by animals in their passage. To write means, first of all, to draw.
A first assumption identifies drawing as the first form of writing, although
today the braille writing substantially expands the concept itself A
second important relationship is that between numbers and letters. The
primordiality of the number economically and socially insinuates in the
thinking of any unprejudiced man. The number was first. The writing was
initially noted by drawing numbers. Thus we could conclude that
mathematics preceded the writing, as the most veridical source of
inspiration of the alphabet. When where the first numbers drawn in time?
Nicked bones as representation of the passage of time appear 30,000 years
BC. Unearthed mummified dead had clothes on which beads were sewn
marking the passage of time or the age of the deceased. Two legends
remain interesting in the analyzed context. The first, an Egyptian legend
60
recounts how the Egyptian god Thoth informed king Thamos that he had
discovered writing. Almost afraid of the consequences, the king accused
him of being an enemy of civilisation, because young people, who had been
forced until then to remember what they were told, with the use of the
alphabet, will become slack and will cease to enhance their memory.
Writing or joining hieroglyphics was thus going to cause an atavistic fear
among the ignorant (illiterate). The second legend, also from the ancient
Greek world, is that of Cadmus. The story goes that the son of a Phoenician
king and the grandson of Poseidon, mythological Cadmus left, Phoenicia in
search of his sister Europa, abducted by Zeus, who had changed into a bull.
Wandering on the sea, Cadmus arrived in Boeotia and founded Thebes,
where as soon as he was elected king, he married Harmonia, daughter of
Ares and Aphrodite, giving Thebans the alphabet he knew from his country
Phoenicia. The conclusion of the two legends becomes particularly simple,
namely that the origin of the first writings about the human population and
those about the alphabet are lost in the millenary mists of mythology. From
the information and the historical documents preserved, the first writings
seem to have accompanied the clay boxes used for the commercial samples
transported to the Mesopotamian Middle East, about six thousand years ago.
These boxes evolved, becoming clay tablets, mediating the unique
cuneiform writing system of numbers and especially of words. Sumerians,
Akkadians, Assyrians are early carriers of a type of cuneiform writings,
through the incredible immensity of ancient spaces. The simplest
typological approach identifies four kinds of writing: simple pictographic
writings or strings of pictograms or drawings inter-correlated or connected
by a common idea of symbolic pictographic writings or strings of
pictograms transfiguring a name or an abstract subject having the most
eloquent example in the Egyptian hieroglyphic writing (a tenacious and
ingenious sequence of drawings whose objects are parts of the human body,
geometric figures) demotic writings derived from symbolic pictographic
writings in time by stylization and sinusoidal linearization where each sign
represents a word and alphabetic writings where each sign represents a letter
(the letters being reduced as systematic number down to a threshold after
which they re-multiply by the diversity of the accents). The difficult
Phoenician alphabet gradually turned into a new one, called Hellenic, and
subsequently the Latin one appeared, the latter underlying the first census
that was truly rigorous from the methodological point of view. However,
seeking the first human writings and implicitly the emergence of the
alphabet the first demographic writings can be detailed. The Romans with
their practical skills gave the census a unitary methodological character,
61
generating the language and technique of the modern census. The period
between two censuses was called by the Latins lustrum. Introduced in
Rome by Servius Tullius (578 534 BC) the Roman censuses were
performed every five years. In Augustus age, in a Rome "of several
continents which had become an extending empire, the frequency
increased first to ten and even 15 years, with the decrease of the imperial
resources, respectively under Diocletian. Census populi or the census
operation was initially performed in the field of Mars, its management being
entrusted to censors, while the statements of the citizens on the occasion
of the census were stored in the Tabularium or the public archive. At
Roma, for each of the four circumscriptions of the capital city a curator
was appointed, with population census and tax collection competences. The
position of censor, a position with essential population census competences,
was created by the Romans in the period of the Republic, around 440 BC
and in Dacia, which was under Roman occupation, censuses known as
census provinciae were performed. Detailed and rigorous imperial-type
censuses were preceded by libri censuales or records of the population
made immediately after the conquering the province by the Romans. The
first censuses with a renewed information content were actually performed
much later, i.e. in 1749, in Sweden in 1790 in the U.S.A. in 1800 in
England, and in 1801 in France. The first census considered truly modern
was the one performed in Belgium, in 1846, under the leadership of
statistician Adolphe Quetelet, and in our country the one performed after the
Union of 1859, led by Dionisie Pop Marian. These censuses began to be
organised based on modern methods, relatively similar to the censuses of
the 3rd millennium, in terms of content and variables.
2.3. Brief history of the emergence of accounting records or of the
beginning of accountancy
As shown in the specialised literature4, which is also proved by the
practice, the economic records are the main data source of the informational
economic system and also one of its basic components. Based on the nature
of the data, the acquiring, processing and representation method, it is
deemed that the economic records take three distinct forms: statistical,
accounting and technical and operational recording. These three forms of
records are closely related, they are interdependent and complement each
other. Since the object of research in this section of the work is accountancy,
Enache G., (1977), Bazele contabilitii, Scientific and Encyclopaedic Publishing House,
Bucharest, pp.11-16
62
we will present its definition below, and a brief history of the emergence of
the accounting records, of accountancy in general.
The first definitions of accountancy were generally focused on the
traditional bookkeeping function (documentary records), fulfilled by the
accountant. Over time, the accountant was involved, in addition to the
documentary records, into a number of complex activities of planning,
evaluation, verification and audit which led to the evolution of the definition
of accountancy. Currently, in the national legislation5, accountancy is
defined as activity specializing in the measurement, evaluation, knowledge,
management and control of assets, liabilities and equity, as well as of the
results obtained from the activity of the economic entities. To this end,
accountancy must provide the chronological and systematic recording,
processing, publishing and keeping of information related to the financial
position, financial performance and other information related to the
business, both for their internal requirements, as well as in the relationships
with the current an potential investors, the financial and commercial
creditors, the customers, the public institutions and other users.
It is believed that the first accounting records emerged with the
writing, in Sumer. Thus the scribe wrote on the wet clay plate the
undertaken obligations, and the parties involved into negotiations confirmed
by signature that the notes were correct. Later, the use of coins by the
Greeks, 600 years BC, boosted trade and thus the accounting records. With
regard to the history of accounting, mention can be made of the fact that
many famous authors analysed over time the aspects of the emergency and
development of accountancy. Among them, the French professor Bernard
Colasse groups the evolution of accountancy into three main periods6. In the
early Middle Ages, accountancy was characterized by simplicity. The end of
the Middle Ages marks the transition to the second phase in the evolution of
accountancy, when due to the fast development of the commercial and
banking activity, especially in the area of the Italian republics, double entry
bookkeeping will go beyond the administrative area bringing forth the
economic rationale. Accountancy is thus widely adopted, in Europe. In the
view of professor Colasse, the 19th century and the impact of the industrial
revolution on the national economies will determine the passage to a third
stage in the evolution of accountancy, characterized by the development and
separation of management accounting from the financial one or by the
5
Accounting Law no. 82/1991, republished, art. 2

Matei Marius tefan De la primordialitatea aparenei juridice la reflectarea realitii
economice sau calea de evoluie a contabilitii romneti, PhD Thesis, ASE, Bucharest,
2004, pp.22-24
63
recognition of the role of information in the decision-making process, of the

accounting balance or of the profit and loss account.
Luca Paciolo7 had a special impact on the evolution of accountancy
through his treatise Summa de Aritmetica, Proportioni et Proportionalita
(Everything about arithmetic, geometry and proportions). Prepared in 1494
at Venice, the paper is viewed as the first general treatise of practical
arithmetic and algebra ever published. The chapter entitled Particularis de
computis e scripturris is dedicated to accountancy. In this chapter the
author merged the accounting knowledge used until then that he knew8,
comprehensive and understandable description of the new method of
accounting. Pacioli does not specify whether the information presented is
inspired by previous writings or by the practice of financiers and traders of
his time. What can be said with certainty is the influence of the Venetian
experience, a genuine trade centre in those times9.
3. A final remark
In conclusion, with the emergence and generalization of the
alphabet, the conditions of scientific investigation and the related methods
were also developed, in incipient stages, and the first census works
simultaneously generated statistics, demography and accountancy,
conferring a unique scientific aura to the first census of the ephemeral
empires...
References
Brian Halweil, Lisa Mastny (2004), Starea Lumii, Technical Publishing
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Colibaba D., Mihescu C.,Sora V. .(1998), Demografie matematic, ASE
Publishing House, Bucharest.
Gheorghe Enache Bazele contabilitii, Scientific and Encyclopaedic
Publishing House, Bucharest, 1977
Gheu V.(1979), Perspective demografice, Scientific and Encyclopaedic
Publishing House, Bucharest,
Golopenia A. (2002), Opere complete, vol. II- Statistic, demografie and
7
Luca Pacioli, born in 1445, was a true Renaissance figure, with extended literature, art,
mathematics, business and science knowledge.
8
Laureniu Dobroeanu Contabilitatea n Evul Mediu primele tehnici moderne de
contabilitate Contabilitatea, expertiza i auditul afacerilor, no.7, July, page 15.
9
Matei Marius tefan De la primordialitatea aparenei juridice la reflectarea realitii
economice sau calea de evoluie a contabilitii romneti, PhD Thesis, ASE, Bucharest,
2004, pp.32-33
64
geopolitic, Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest,

Matei Marius tefan De la primordialitatea aparenei juridice la reflectarea
realitii economice sau calea de evoluie a contabilitii romneti, PhD
Thesis, ASE, Bucharest, 2004
Pescaru, A. 1968- Elemente de demografie, Scientific Publishing House,
Bucharest,
Svoiu, G. (2004), Statistic aplicat n domeniul economic and social,
Independena Economic Publishing House, Piteti,
Svoiu, G. (2006), Populaia lumii ntre explozie and implozie demografic,
International University Press Publishing House, Bucharest.
Svoiu, G. (2012), Statistic general cu aplicaii n contabilitate,
University Publishing House, Bucharest.
Sherman, Irwin W., Sherman, Vilia G, (1989), Biology. A Human
Approach, 4 Ed. Oxford University Press, New York,
Trebici, V. (1975), Mic enciclopedie de demografie, Scientific and
Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest.
Trebici, V. (1996), Demogafie. Excerpta et selecta, Encyclopaedic
Publishing House, Bucharest.
Contabilitatea, expertiza i auditul afacerilor, no.7, July
Accounting Law no. 82/1991, republished
65
Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Testing of the

Significance of the Regression Model
Alexandru URSACHE, PhD. Student
Bogdan DRAGOMIR, PhD. Student
Georgeta BARDAU (LIXANDRU), PhD. Student
Marius POPOVICI, PhD. Student
Abstract
Before being utilized, any model based on the regression function
must be analysed and accommodated to the actual conditions implied by the
performed analysis. The veracity of the outcomes resulting out of the
utilization of the regression model implies that the significance of the model
being taken into consideration is tested. Testing the significance of the
regression linear model can be accomplished by applying statistical
procedures, out of which we shall consider only the Student test and the
variation analysis.
Key words: significance, regression, test, parameter, model
In submitting the two procedures applied to testing the hypotheses

formulated on the parameters of the regression model, the following
emphasizes are to be considered:
- the estimators of the parameters of the regression linear model are
of minimum dispersion in the class of non-removed estimators;
- if the parameters of the model are estimated by means of the least
squares method, then the dispersion of the residual is estimated through the
relation:
66
2 =
1
n2
2
i
(1)
i =1
The estimator of the variance of the residual variable is a nonremoved estimator:
( )
E 2 = 2
- the residual variable is following up a normal repartition N (0, 2 ) .

Starting from the properties of the estimators of the regression linear
model, the estimators a and b are linear combinations of randomly variable

normally distributed1.
In order to define the statistics, the follow two situations are to be
considered:
the dispersion of the residual variable is known.
Considering the expressions of the two estimators, it is resulting that
these ones are meeting the following two properties:
a N a,
2
b N b,
n
,
( xi x ) 2
1 + x
2
x
(2)
Considering the properties of the normal distribution as well as the

above outcomes, the following results are obtained:
a a
a
b b
(a a )
(x
i
(b b)
1
x2
+
n n x2
x) 2
N (0,1),
(3)
N (0,1).
These outcomes are useful for testing some hypotheses formulated in

respect of the parameters, as well as for defining the corresponding intervals
of confidence.
the dispersion of the residual variable is unknown.
1
Anghel, M.G. (2014) Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation
between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Romn de Statistic
Supliment/Nr. 1
67
In order to define the statistics used for testing the significance of the
parameters of the regression linear models we have to keep in mind that:
if x i N (0,1), i = 1,..., n , then
n
z=
2
i
2n ;
i =1
if x i N (0, ), i = 1,..., n , then

2
xi
z=
i =1
n
2 ;
n
if x i N (0,1) and z k2 , then
x
z/k
tk .
In terms of practical analysis, the dispersion of the residual variable

is not known, this one being estimated through the relation (1). Taking into
consideration the calculation relationship of the Student statistics and
applying the three properties, the following results are obtained:
- for the coefficient of the slope of the regression line:
In order to test H0: a = a , with the alternative H0: a a , we have to
keep in mind the fact that:
a a
=
a
(a a )
(x
x) 2
(a a ) x
e
n 2 t n2
(4)
- for the free term

In order to test the null hypothesis H0: b = b , with the alternative :
H1: b b , we have to keep in mind the fact that:
b b
=

b
(b b)

1
+
n
x2
(x
t n 2 .
(5)
x )2
These two outcomes are useful for testing the significance and
defining the intervals of confidence for the two parameters of the regression
line2.
Manole, A. et. al. (2013) Conditional Probability and Econometric Models,

Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013
68
Testing the null hypothesis when there is an established

significance threshold, if
a a
> t / 2; n 2 ,
then the null hypothesis is
rejected. This test is used in order to set up whether the linear dependence
between the two characteristics is a significant one. In this case the testing
goes for H0: a=0, with the alternative H1: a 0 . The null hypothesis is
rejected if
> t / 2;n 2 .
Defining the interval of confidence: For a threshold of

significance established out of the Student repartition table the value
t / 2;n 2 is set up for n-2 degrees of liberty.
A specific interval of confidence is defined for each parameter.
- For the parameter a, the interval of confidence is:
(6)
a t / 2;n 2 a a a + t / 2; n 2 a
- For the free term the interval of confidence is defined as:
b t / 2;n 2 b b b + t / 2; n 2 b
(7)
In order to test if the linear dependence between the two variables is
significant, namely if the value of the coefficient of the slope differs from
zero, the dispersion analysis is applied as well.
Each parameter of the regression model would be separately tested
or a procedure of a simultaneous testing could be applied. As the two
estimators, a and b , are not independent alleatory variables, it is considered
that the successive testing of the two parameters is not exactly correct.
Therefore, the simultaneous testing of the two parameters is recommended.
The test hypothesis would be defined as follows:
H 0 : a = a 0 , b = b0
H 1 : a a 0 , b b0
If noting with ( a ,b) the estimator of the covariance matrix of the

parameters of the regression linear model then we define:
1
Fa ,b =
1 a a ( a ,b ) 1 a a

b b
2 b b
1
=
2 2
2
2
n(a a ) + 2n x(a a)(b b) + (b b)
x i2 F2;n 2
(8)
For a simultaneous testing of the two parameters, we shall replace,

within the expression of Fa,b, the a,b by a0, b0. For a given threshold of
69
significance , the value F ;2;n 2 is read from the Fisher Snedecor table of
distribution.
If the inequality Fcalculated > Ftableted is is fulfilled, then the null
hypothesis is rejected, accepting that at least one parameter differs
significantly from the specified value.
The dispersion analysis is a statistical procedure for testing the
quality of the model, which has as a starting point the decomposition of the
total variance of the dispersion due to the regression factor and the
dispersion due to the action of the non-recorded factors3.
We define the notions :
n
- SPT = ( y i y ) 2 representing the sum of the squares of the terms of the

i =1
endogenous variable;
n
- SPE = ( y i y ) 2 quantifying the sum of the squares of the estimated terms

i =1
deviations;
n
- SPR = (ei ) 2 representing the sum of the squares of the estimating errors.
i =1
Between the three terms the equality

SPT = SPE + SPR
(9)
is verified.
For each term out of the last equality the number of liberty degrees
has to be set up. Thus, for the three terms, these are equal to n-1, n-2, 2-1.
In order to define the test statistics, the property of the variables 2
has to be considered, namely:
If x and z are two alleatory independent variables with distributions 2 and
k2 liberty degrees, then:
F=
x / k1
z / k2
Fk1 ;k 2
Out of the property of the estimator a , it is resulting that:

2
a a
(a a )
=
12
2
2
2
/
(
x
x
)
a
(10)
Out of the property of the residual variable, we get:

3
Anghel, M.G. (2008) Utilizarea modelului de regresie n analiza situaiei pieei de

capital, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment Romnia n procesul integrrii
europene, nr. 12/2008
70
2
i
n2 2
(11)
In order to test the null hypothesis H 0 : a = a we define:

(a a) 2
F=
(x
x )2
ei2
/(n 2)
F (1, n 2)
(12)
The null hypothesis a=0 is tested, according to which the exogenous

variable does not influence to a significant extent the values of the
endogenous characteristic. The test relation is the following:
(x x )
e /(n 2)
a 2
F=
2
i
F (1, n 2)
(13)
In order to set up an equivalent form for the last statistics, the fact
that, under the null hypothesis conditions as to the independence of the two
characteristics, the terms of the equality (9) are expressed:
SPE = ( y i y )2 = a 2 (xi x ) , while
SPR = ( y i y i )2
has to be
considered.
The F test is written as an equivalent form:
F=
SPE / 1
SPR /(n 2)
(14)
Out of the last relation the expression of the statistics F is deducted

depending on the value of the determination ratio R2:
F=
R2
1 R 2
( n 2) .
(15)
In order to set up whether the linear dependence between the two

variables is a significant one, the estimated value F for the data series
established for the two characteristics is compared with the tableted value of
this statistics. If the inequality: F > F1 ;(1;n 2 ) is observed, then the null
hypothesis H0: a=0 is rejected.
For the significance threshold it is ascertained that there is no
significant linear dependence between the two variables4.
Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dinc (Nicola), Z. (2014) The Regression
Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor, Revista Romn
de Statistic - Supliment nr. 1/2014
4
71
If there is a significant linear dependence between the two variables,

it has been demonstrated that R2 = r2. Under these circumstances, the
relation (15) turns to:
r2
F=
(n 2) = t n22 .
1 r2
There is a new statistics arising for testing the linear dependence
between the two variables:
r
t=
n 2 t n 2 .
1 r2
In practice, there is an issue occurring, namely to set out whether the
various regression linear models, which parameters have been estimated for
the data recorded at the level of various populations, are significantly
differing5.
Lets consider the data series ( xi , y i )i =1,n and ( x ' i , y ' i )i =1, n ' for the
two statistical characteristics, in the case of two populations taken into
account.
Based on the first series of values, the parameters of the regression
linear model as well as the dispersion of the slope coefficient have been
estimated:
- the regression linear model: y i = b + axi ;
- the dispersion of the slope coefficient: a2 .
For the second population, a similar procedure leads to the following
outcomes:
- the estimated regression line is y 'i = b'+ a ' x'i
- the dispersion of the slope coefficient is a2 '
The issue to consider is to set out whether the two regression models
have different characteristics as against the coefficient of the regression line
slope.
In order to test if the two coefficients of regression differ
significantly we apply the relation:
a a '
t=
a2 + a2 '
(16)
Anghel M.G. et al. (2014) Using the regression model for the portfolios analysis and
management, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXI, No.4
72
The alleatory variable d = a a is defined in order to measure the

difference between the slopes of the two regression lines. In order to
establish if the two lines have the same value of the regression slopes, we
define:
the null hypothesis of the test H0: d = 0, with the alternative
H1: d 0 ;
d
.
the test statistics: t =
If considering that the two estimators are independent, then the test
statistics is:
t = d / a2 + a2 '
(17)
In order to test the null hypothesis, a significance threshold must
be set out. Out of the Student table of distribution , the tableted value is set
out as t / 2 . If the value calculated through (17) is higher that t / 2 the null
hypothesis is rejected. It is accepted that the two coefficients are
significantly different.
Conclusion
The utilisation of the regression model is giving very good results
for the economic analyses. In practice, there is an issue to be considered,
namely, in case there are various regression models which statistical
significance has been checked up, which one should we apply to? We are
interested to get close positions for the parameters estimated for the
recorded data In case they are significantly daggering, we use the test t
given by the relation:
a a '
t=
a2 + a2 '
Then, we use the null hypothesis and finally we analyse the
inequality:
F>T1-; (1; n-2)
References
Anghel, M.G. (2014) Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the
Romn de Statistic Supliment/Nr. 1
73
Anghel M.G. et al. (2014) Using the regression model for the portfolios
analysis and management, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume
XXI, No.4
Anghel, M.G. (2013) Modele de gestiune i analiz a portofoliilor,
Anghel, M.G. (2008) Utilizarea modelului de regresie n analiza situaiei
pieei de capital, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment Romnia
n procesul integrrii europene, nr. 12/2008
Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dinc (Nicola), Z. (2014)
The Regression Model used to Analyze the Correlation between
Production and Labor, Revista Romn de Statistic - Supliment nr.
1/2014
Anghelache, C. (2013) Elemente de econometrie teoretic, Editura
Artifex, Bucureti
Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C. (2012) Econometrie, Editura ARTIFEX,
Bucureti
Anghelache C., Isaic-Maniu AL., Mitru C., Voineagu V. (2011) - Sistemul
conturilor naionale: sinteze i studii de caz, Editura Economic,
Bucureti
Bardsen, G. et. al. (2005) The Econometrics of Macroeconomic
Modelling, Oxford University Press
Benjamin, C. et.al. (2010) Forecasting with an Econometric Model,
Springer
Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition,
Oxford University Press
Manole, A. et. al. (2013) Conditional Probability and Econometric
Models, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013
Mitru, C. (2008) Basic econometrics for business administration,
Editura ASE, Bucureti
74
The System of Financial Analysis Indicators

Applying to the Activity Run by an Economic
Agent
Abstract
The first operation which should be achieved by the capital investors
when setting up a portfolio consists of fixing the component equities within
its structure. Thus, in order to adopt the optimum decision as to investing,
they proceed to a thorough analysis and evaluation of the potential equities
to be acquired. Based on the data out of the accounting balance sheets over
the period 2009-2013 this article is analysing
the activity run by a
commercial company from our country, listed with the Bucharest Stock
Exchange, using in this respect a system of relevant indicators, which
interpretation allows us to reach doubtless conclusions, depending on which
the future development may be predicted.
Key words: indicators system, analysis, solvency, liquidity,
profitableness.
Introduction
In the context of a more and more developed competitive economy,
the economic and financial analysis of the activity run by the economic
agents represents an activity of a specific significance. In order to fix such
indicators allowing the management of the economic entities to adopt the
best decisions at the right moment, the information contained by the
accounting documents of synthesis are frequently combined with the
specific methods and techniques belonging to other disciplines, such as
mathematics, statistics or econometrics.
The main targets of the economic and financial analysis of the
companys activity are the following: establishing the net patrimony of the
economic entity, namely the accounting value of the shareholders wealth;
establishing the financial health of the economic agent, namely detecting the
eventual situation of financial unbalancing which might threat the
forthcoming development of the company activity; establishing the
75
company liquidity and solvency; establishing the financial flexibility of the

economic agent; characterising the efficiency of the patrimonial elements;
drawing up the income and expenses budgets as well as the financing plans;
evaluating the company performances.
The outcomes of the economic and financial analysis of the
economic agents activity are basically addressed to their administrators, to
the actual or potential shareholders, to the financial analysts, to the
organisms specialized in financing economic activities (banks, investment
companies, mother companies, other interested economic entities), as well
as to the state.
The financial analysis of the information included in the accounting
balance sheet implies the study of its component elements both from static
point of view- the analysis of the relations existing between these
components at a certain moment -, and from a dynamic point of view the
study of the evolution in time of one or several components of this
document of synthesis1.
The research methodology
In the frame of the present article, I chose to use a set of relevant
indicators considered as a system, meant to allow defining a model of
analysis of the outcomes of the activity run by a commercial company. The
selected indicators are the solvency rates, the liquidity rates and the
profitableness rates2.
The choice of these rates is supported by the following
argumentation: the liquidity is a major indicator for the analysis of a
company; if the company is liquid, generally speaking, it is also a solvable
one; in the situation a company is both liquid and solvable, for sure it is
running a profitable activity. The analysis carried out consisted of the
application of this system of indicators on the data out of the accounting
balance sheets over the last five years of the company TURISM FELIX S.A.
BILE FELIX.
TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE FELIX is a commercial company with
domain of activity Hotels and other accommodation facilities (Cod CAEN
Rev.2 5510). The main information referring to the issuer of the
considered stock values are synthetized as follows:
Anghel M.G. (2013) Modele de gestiune i analiz a portofoliilor, Editura

Economic, Bucureti
2
Anghel M.G. (2013) Technical analysis versus fundamental analysis of securities,
Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment/Trim. II
76
Table 1. Issuers details

Fiscal Cod / CUI
108526
Cod Register of Commerce
J05/132/1991
Address
Comuna Sanmartin
Locality
Baile Felix
District
Bihor
TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE FELIX holds a total social capital
amounting 49,614,945.60 lei, which is divided in 496,149,456 shares of a
nominal value of 0.1000 lei/share. The shares issued by the considered
economic agent have been accepted for transaction within the Bucharest
Stock Exchange by December 20th, 1996, and got the identification symbol
the notation TUFE. The shares issued by TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE
FELIX are presently transacted in the frame of the BVB stock exchange
section on the main market REGS, being included in the II category of
financial instruments.
The solvency rates
The general solvency rate shows the capacity of the analysed
economic agent to pay back its debts. If the general solvency rate is
recording a value below 1, then this one is insolvent3.
The rate of financial autonomy is expressing the financial

independence of the company as the weight of the own resources as against
the long term drawn financial resources. To the extent this weight is higher
the benefits for the total financial autonomy are higher. The value which this
rate should record must count for minimum 50%.
The rate of the global autonomy is representing the capacity of selffinancing of the economic agent and the extent to which it can get through
the payment obligations, and is established as a ratio between the own
resources and the total means available with the company. A satisfactory
situation is given by a minimum value of 33% of this indicator as against
the total of the financing resources, while the maximum financial autonomy
is recorded when its value is close 100%.
3
Punic, M., Matac, L.M., Motofei, C., Manole, A. (2009) - Some Aspects Regarding
The Use Of Business Intelligence In The Financial Management, Revista Metalurgia
Internaional nr 13/2009
77
The total debts rate is indicating the weight of the drawn financial
sources in the total passives of the company (active = passive). In practice,
for considering that the company activity is secure, it is recommended that
the value of the debts rate is placed below the threshold of 50%.
Table 2. The solvency rate of TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE FELIX

over the period 2009 2013
Indicator
2009
49.19
86.90
85.16
14.84
The general solvency rate

The financial autonomy rate
The global autonomy rate
The total debts rate
2010
48.99
89.81
87.99
12.01
The year
2011
2012
51.90 45.67
91.00 93.53
89.26 91.52
10.74
8.48
2013
35.58
95.04
92.38
7.62
Source: own calculations

Out of the interpretation of the values recorded for the solvency rates
during the period submitted to the analysis, one can conclude that the
activity run by TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE FELIX is an extremely stable
one, recording values very close to optimum mainly for the year 2013, when
the financial autonomy rate reached the threshold of 95.04%, while the total
debts rate recorded a very low value, of 7.62% only, these aspects being
underlined through the following graphic representation:
78
The liquidity indicators

The current (general) liquidity rate is reflecting the capacity of the
current available actives to turn to money availabilities meant to cover
falling due debts on short term. The recommended value of this indicator is
comprised by the interval 2 2.5, considering that the optimum value
should count for about 24.
However, it can record different variations depending on the domain
of activity5. A comfortable level of the indicator is comprised by the interval
1.5 2.0. Sub-unitary values are indicating a lack of balance at the level of
the company treasury, the economic agent being in the situation to borrow
or to sell part of his immobilized actives in order to pay his debts avoiding,
thus, the bankrupt.
The immediate liquidity rate (the acid test) is expressing the

capability of the company to pay its short term debts, by resorting to those
actives of the balance sheet
of the highest degree of liquidity. A
satisfactory value for the immediate liquidity would be considered,
generally, as 0.8. The best value for this indicator is, generally speaking, 1
but we have to point out that in this case as well, we might deal with
domains of activity where the immediate liquidity records values lower that
1 (the stocks holding a high weight within the total circulating actives).
The at sight liquidity (actual) rate is expressing the capability of the

economic agent to honour his payment liabilities on short term based on the
money availabilities (cash and current account) and the short term financial
investments.
Manole, A. (2008) Sistemul informatic pentru modelarea deciziei financiarcontabile, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
5
Anghel, M.G (2011) General aspects about management portfolios of financial
instruments, ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and Research, Vol. 2/No. 2
79
Table 3. Indicators concerning the liquidity of TURISM FELIX S.A.

BILE FELIX for the period 2009 2013
Indicator
Current liquidity
Immediate liquidity
At sight liquidity
2009
2.40
2.24
1.56
2010
2.61
2.44
2.14
Year
2011
4.22
3.97
3.54
2012
6.14
5.90
3.06
2013
4.29
4.11
1.86
Source: own calculations

Based on the indicators previously established, we can allege that the
activity carried on by TURISM FELIX S.A. BILE FELIX during the
period submitted to the analysis is characterized by an adequate liquidity,
recording values in line with the intervals recommended by the specialists of
the field.
The profitableness
The actives profitableness rate is emphasizing the way in which the
managers of the company are utilizing the total resources of the company
(financial and real) so that profit is made.
The financial profitableness rate is expressing the efficiency in

utilizing the own capitals, namely the investment achieved by the
shareholders of an economic entity through acquiring the companys shares.
In the situation that this indicator records increasing values, the return of the
own capitals is efficient. The values recorded by this indicator must be
higher than 5%.
80
The profits increase/decrease rate is calculated as against the level

recorded for the previous year, based on the following formula:
Table 4. Indicators of the profitableness rates of TURISM FELIX S.A.

BILE FELIX for the period 2009 2013
Indicator
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7.814.850 5.032.298 6.738.894 2.948.355 3.985.094
Total net profit-lei

Actives profita3.67
2.38
3.47
1.53
2.06
bleness rate (%)
Financial profita4.32
2.71
3.89
1.68
2.24
bleness rate (%)
Profits evolution
-18,93*
-35.61
33.91
-56.25
35.16
rate (%)
*In order to calculate the profits evolution rate for the year 2009 the profit recorded
for the year 2008 has been considered, taken over from the accounting balance sheet but not
submitted in the previous table.
As far as the profitableness of the own capitals is concerned, it must

be emphasized the fact that the activity carried on in the frame of the
company, characterized by a financial profitableness below 5% all over the
analysed period of time, has been inefficient from the point of view of
turning to account its own capitals6.
Anghel, M.G. (2013) Identification of financial instruments important step in building

portfolios, Romanian Statistical Review
81
In order to underline the profitableness, respectively the efficiency

of utilizing the production factors available with the company, I calculated
for each year of the analysed period the rate of the recorded profit.
Although, as absolute values, a profit has been recorded for each year, when
expressed in percentage points, this indicator shows a fluctuant evolution,
with alarming deceases (the years 2010 and 2012), to more than half at the
level of the year 2012 and a recovery for the year 2013.
Conclusions
The financial analysis based on the data included by the accounting
balance sheet is representing a significant source of information for the
capital investors but also for the decisions makers of the economic agent
who can adopt the necessary steps in order to adjust the company activity,
as the study is achieving a long term analysis (five years), surveying the
evolution of the phenomenon on a long term basis which can be used by the
management of the economic agent.
References
Anghel, M.G. (2013) Identification of financial instruments important
step in building portfolios, Romanian Statistical Review
Anghel M.G. (2013) Technical analysis versus fundamental analysis of
securities, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment/Trim. II
Anghel, M.G. (2013) Modele de construcie a portofoliilor de instrumente
financiare, Revista Romn de Statistic Supliment
82
Anghel, M.G (2011) General aspects about management portfolios of

financial instruments, ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and
Research, Vol. 2/No. 2
Anghel, M.G. (2006) Analiza financiar a activitii firmei pe baza
informaiilor cuprinse n bilanul contabil, Simpozionul tiinific
Internaional Dezvoltarea economic durabil Management competitiv
i eficien economic, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
Anghelache, C.; Anghel, M.G. (2014) Modelare economic. Concepte,
teorie i studii ce caz, Editura Economic, Bucureti
Manole, A. (2008) Sistemul informatic pentru modelarea deciziei
financiar-contabile, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
Punic, M., Matac, L.M., Motofei, C., Manole, A. (2009) - Some Aspects
Regarding The Use Of Business Intelligence In The Financial
Management, Revista Metalurgia Internaional nr 13/2009
Robu, V; Vlceanu, Gh. (2010) Analiz economic financiar, Editura
Economic, Bucureti
Vintil, G. (2010) Gestiunea financiar a ntreprinderii, Editura Didactic
i Pedagogic, Bucureti
www.bvb.ro (Bursa de Valori Bucureti)
83
I.G. Duca: Cooperation is a mean of

harmonization in the fight between capital and
labor
Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD
Abstract
This paper emphasizes the contribution of the famous Romanian
politician I.G. Duca to the development and independence of the cooperative
sector in our country. There are reviewed some of his published opinions, and
also a small excerpt of a political debate against Nicolae Iorga and Ion
Mihalache. The works of IG Duca outline the moral side of cooperatives,
considered to be of great importance in the attempt to implement the
cooperative system in the Romanian economy, characterized by specific
conditions.
Key words: cooperative, village, peasants, government, politics
In the gallery of big scientific and political personalities of the pervious
century, preoccupied with the problems of cooperatives, a special place was
held by I. G. Duca (1879-1933), leader of the National Liberal Party, many
times minister or prime minister (1933).
Known jurist, I. G. Duca was a promoter of a policy oriented towards
French and British political and financial circles.
His ideas and conception on the cooperation are presented in a work
published in 1902 in Paris with the title: Les socits coopratives en
Roumanie (Cooperative societies in Romania): Cooperation - I. G. Duca
wrote is a system which assumes and proposes to resolve the social problem,
by slowly and progressively transforming the present economic situation,
through the help of an associative form, whose members, by a set of attributes,
contribute to the enterprise and simultaneously benefit from it.
Further, to the question if this cooperative system is possible, a system
that is organized by law during the respective period, I. G. Duca answers in the
same work: We believe that it will not be able to live through it, because
always, big ideas that kneaded the world and had a tremendous influence on its
destine, at first appeared in a splendid light, only to end as some limited and
84
precise reforms. This was the case of liberty, this is the case of cooperation, and
probably this will be the case of socialism. World is no such little as one idea
could govern it, and the social problem is too complex itself for a solution to be
able to fulfill all its needs.
Such ideas, he promotes in his political activity, which justifies the
expansion of the cooperation during the first part of the 20th century. Thats
what I. G. Duca wrote in a paper published in 1921 in the Cooperaia romn
(Romanian Cooperation) journal: Cooperation is a mean of harmonization
in the fight between capital and labor, the happiest of all conciliation forms
proposed until today. But in reality, only two formulas were found to bring
together the interests of work and capital. These formulas are: cooperation and
participation to benefits.
Cooperation has, over the participation to benefits the superiority to
completely setting aside all the shortcomings of the capitalist regime.
In other words, cooperation is a solution more radical than participation
to benefits. The difference between them is the fact that ones action, that is the
participation to benefits, acts in breadth, while the other ones, the cooperation,
in depth. By one, happier results are achieved faster, but they are incomplete.
By the other, you conquer slowly, but you conquer completely. In the end, the
cooperative movement has another use: cooperation is not only an economic
formula, is a superior conception on life, a supreme attempt to establish
altruistic report between humans. Participation to benefits, which is still
practiced by governments preoccupied to destroy the germs of a dangerous
social agitation, does not have this idealistic side. Between both formulas, there
is the distance between a solution and a belief.
The beginning of the century is clearly favorable to cooperative ideas
and organization. After the existing examples and experiences, both in
occidental world and in our country, it takes shape, more and more pregnant, a
cooperative movement which is theoretically sound and included in legal
provisions. The boost of this movement was objectively reflected in the mode
to conceive cooperation in our country, especially on economic and political
plan.
The illustrious politician I. G. Duca emphasizes the moral side of this
type of economic and social organization, as being of primordial importance in
applying such concept in the specific Romanian environment. This is the
answer he gives to the question asked by Nicolae Iorga in the Parliament, on
November 26th, if he is capitalist or cooperator: I am cooperator, because I am
convinced that, truly, the future belongs to cooperative movement. I believe
that, in villages, this movement must be developed, because it is the only
capable to comply with the credit needs of the villagers. But I am not a man
85
who only keeps his eyes on distant shores, but also must take into account
current realities. Or, in current realities, there are capitalist societies that I do
not have the power to disband. Then a question arises: these companies are to
be left in foreign hands, or we, Romanians, should shape that movement?
Anyone who knows me is aware that I have been offered places in tens of
boards and tens of societies and I didnt agree to take seat in any board but two,
and I shall take advantage of the first opportunity, all my friends also now, to
leave my position in those banks.
Regarding the autonomy of the cooperation and the role of the state, of
central house and of federals, I.G. Duca states: for the Central House, the
control right is only a right to advise and enrich. It wishes to be more a school
than a supervisor and therefore anytime a wrong is done to you, you should
come to the Central House, and it would be happy to advise you and insist that
proper justice prevails. So every enmity should disappear, any resentment of
fear or shyness.
You must also think, gentlemen, at the federation of popular banks.
The ideal of the Central House is that, as soon the popular banks would be
strengthen, they should support, federalize between themselves and satisfy,
through own means, all their needs, so the help from the State should not be
necessary.
The autonomy of the cooperative movement and the role of the state in
its organization is visible from the report on December 21st, 1918, in which, as
minister of agriculture, he presented to the king, to be signed, the Decree law
that establishes the Central of Cooperatives and the allotment of villagers: Our
hope, we say it without delay, is that soon the Romanian cooperation will reach
an organization so strong, a so high conscience of its redemption social
meaning, as the State can renounce without shortcomings at all attributes that
today its still due to exercise. We express no doubt that through the new form
taken by the Central of Cooperatives; it will contribute to the achievement of
this goal.
During the first decades of the 20th century, a pivotal problem of
cooperation was related to the autonomy of this movement in connection with
the influence and tutelage of the state. I. G. Duca, referring to the control of the
state and of the central institutions, spoke at a conference in 1910, in front of
the control personnel and stated: It is true that anyone who holds a position of
power he is predisposed to make abuse of it and You committed yourselves to
this sin, you went too deeply in the administration of cooperatives, I want to
draw your attention on the fact that once you have gone down this slope, it
would be hard to stop in time so that you would not disturb, through your
intervention, the development of cooperative idea in its natural way.
86
Few years later, in 1918, being minister of agriculture and learning

from an elected member of the Central of popular banks, that the idea of
federals does not find all necessary support at the directorate of the Central,
which foresees their replacement by State subsidiaries, he categorically states:
this cannot be done, it would mean to turn 10 years back.
Another idea frequently present in the preoccupations of the economist
I. G. Duca is linked to the educative role of cooperative activity and, especially,
the elimination of politics from this activity. Thats what he said in 1905, at the
Congress of cooperators in Bacu: every time a villager comes to ask you for a
loan, every time he asks for a prolongation, every time you meet him, advise
him, enlighten him... the ideal is that peasants to reach redemption by
themselves to remove politics from popular banks and also personal
enmities and ambitions.
Of these words, as out of his activity as director, it can be drawn his
dominant idea, also shared by E. Costinescu, author of the Law of 1903, that,
by passing from the organization of state credit to the cooperative credit, the
first thing that is to be respected and developed is private initiative, so villagers
would escape the derogatory situation of expecting the mercy of the State.
Another dominant idea he instilled in the souls of cooperators was the neutrality
of cooperation to politics, idea that was carefully nourished by his successor
Fotin Enescu.
Separation between policy and cooperative organization is recorded as
a force idea in all activity of I. G. Duca, even if he is a politician.
Political and scientific personalities of the 3rd decade in the previous
century: Nicolae Iorga, I. G. Duca, Ion Mihalache face each other directly
regarding the issues of politics in cooperation, on the occasion of the discussion
on the Chamber on the message of the king. Thats what the stenographic notes
include, related to of the opinions expressed by the three politicians, in the
question of politics in cooperation:
I. G. Duca: You have the right to go to popular banks and conquer
them; to go to the federals and conquer them; we have no right on the popular
banks, or tell our political friends in counties: see to the popular banks,
because then we commit a crime that it should be denounced at the tribune of
the Parliament, as Mr. Mihalache did today.
N. Iorga: Youd do better to leave alone the banks, all of you.
I. G. Duca: You are right. Me also, while I was director at the popular
banks and while being member in the council and here are people who were
there with me and can inquiry on my words I have always told the
cooperators: do not involve the popular banks movement into politics, because
you will compromise it. And we didnt start to make politics in the popular
87
banks, but we always added that if politics will be made by the other parties,
then let it be known that we will make politics as well.
I. Mihalache is the first who become, as minister of domains, to make
politics in popular banks. On this ground, he will find us on his path.
N. Iorga: God forbid that I would come to power in the government and
you make politics in cooperation.
I. Mihalache: Mr. Duca, with you I think I can clearly reason.
You have said that I made politics, going to the congress, and that I
gave the word of command. Could you state more precisely what word of
command did gave?
I. G. Duca: I dont remember, after four years, all the details. But, if you
are interested, I shall remember and also bring to you the photo.
I. Mihalache: Mr. minister, let us leave to others the technicalities and
workarounds. I do not accuse you for fighting I shall explain myself, and Mr.
Iorga will see that he is in serious error when he believes that a right and fixed
line of demarcation can be established between the economic struggle and
political struggle, since both of them aim at the emancipation of peasants class
(prolonged applauses on peasants benches), Mr. Iorga be patient, I shall
develop.
N. Iorga: I do not want to cause you any harm, by revealing an entire
dossier of banks, confederated to draw out some politicians, who had no other
merits, but had the banks in their own hands and so they were able to dominate
the elections through these banks.
Subsequently, neither of you should make politics in the banks, do not
mock the peasantry that you are pretending to serve.
I. G. Duca: You are absolutely right, but I hold on once more to be
known by the National Peasants party, if the movement of cooperatives in
villages is to be considered as its own patrimony, if it will desire to channel this
movement in its own favor, then not only it will find us on its path, but
certainly they will find you, Mr. Iorga
To give a clearer shape to I. G. Ducas position in this matter, we
quote the article published in, in the journal Cooperaia romn
(Romanian Cooperation): let us hope that they who are called today to give
the cooperative movement from rounded Romania its judicial form, they
will know to inspire themselves in this wide social, humanitarian and
idealistic conception of the cooperation, and will thus prepare for tomorrow,
the guidance of the Romanian society, to an organization formula, more
righteous and more harmonic.
88
References
Cruceru, D. (2014) Cooperaia n Romnia Istorie i actualitate ,
Editura Artifex, Bucureti
Mihalache, I. (1940) Problema cooperaiei romne, 1940
Duca, I.G. (1923) Doctrina liberal, 1923
Moldoveanu, C. (1938) Pionierii cooperaiei romne, 1938.
Cooperaia Review, no. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1998-2006
Timu G. (1934) Amintiri cooperatiste despre I.Gh. Duca i Fotin
Enescu, Editura Biblioteca Neoficial a Cooperaiei, Bucureti, 1934
Problemele cooperaiei romne, Bucureti, 1925.
89
International Exchange of Goods and Services

Andreea Gabriela BALTAC, PhD Student
Zoica NICOLA, PhD Student
Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student
Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student
Abstract
This paper describes some of the most important aspects that
characterize the foreign trade of Romania until June 2013. One of the most
important conclusions drawn is the fact that significant decreases in volume
and value of both import and export were recorded. One key factor identified in
the analysis is the decrease of manufacture capacity in the national industry,
which still acts as a pressure factor on multiple facets of economic activities,
including foreign trade.
Key words: import, export, goods, perspective, development
On an overall basis, we can appreciate that the foreign trade activity did
develop negatively from the point of view of the volume but negatively as well
as considering the two components, import and export. The decrease of the
exports and imports has been stimulated also by the slight appreciation of
the national currency. On this ground, the positive element of the
appreciation (volatility) of leu implies a negative effect on the exports.
Many of the exporters either tempered their activities, or recorded modest
gains to the best, if not pure losses. Along with the effects of the economic
and financial crisis, another element which generated a slower rhythm of
evolution of the exports and imports, consists of the fact that the process of
privatization and restructuring involved the closing-up of a number of
companies or autonomous State supervised administrations, as well as of the
fact that the quality of the manufactured products was not in the position to
meet the foreign customers requirements.
90
The main aspect apart the export structure1 by major categories of

goods (capital, intermediary and consumption goods) is represented by the
fact that the massive reduction of the exchange of intermediary goods,
mainly as far as the import are concerned was of the nature to diminish the
productive capacity of the industry and other activities as well, during the
last months of the year 2008, jeopardizing meantime the perspective of the
economic activities for the months to come.
FOB exports, CIF imports and foreign trade operation balance
during June 2012 June 2013

Out of an analytical study of the import and export of intermediary
goods, it is clearly resulting that there significant decreases, some of them
reaching up to 40% and even 50%, recorded by most of the groups of
products of this category. Thus, for the position parts and accessories for
terrestrial auto-vehicles spare, the decrease recorded by the import in
January 2009 counts for over -29%, for position bearings, almost -27%, for
position constructions and parts of metallic -27.4%, positions tissues over 23%, position parts and accessories meant to the equipments for data
processing -39,45% and so on.
The weights held in the Romanian export by the main sections of the
Combined Classified List for 2012, are indicating certain more significant
1
Nr. 1
91
increases for the sections conveyance means (+4.8 percentage points),

machinery, apparatus and electric equipments as well as for the section
vegetal products, with 2 percentage points each; foodstuffs, beverage,
tobacco with +0.,8 percentage points and decreases for ordinary metals and
articles (-5.9 percentage points); mineral products (-3.7 percentage points);
products of the chemical industry and connected industries (-1.3 percentage
points). The other sections kept on maintaining a relatively constant weight.
As to the imports, increases of the weights have been recorded for
chemical industry and connected industries products; machinery, electric
apparatus and equipments; foodstuffs, beverage and tobacco (weights
increases found out at the export too), to which weights increases in the
import to be added concern the section textile materials (+1.4 percentage
points); livestock (+1.1 percentage points). In exchange, the conveyance
means record a drastic decrease of the weight (-6.7 percentage points).
From the point of view of the dynamics of the trade with the partner
countries, to note for both import and export, the decreases recorded for
almost all the cases, some of them quite significant2.
In the structure by countries, the biggest deficits have been recorded
with Hungary, China, Kazakhstan, Austria, Germany, Russian Federation,
contrary to 2008, when the hierarchy of the countries of the biggest deficits
for Romania included Germany, Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Austria
and China.
However, to note the diminishing of the deficit with Germany, by
about 37%, due to the increase of the cars export, which generated the
transformation of the significant deficit in 2011.
Meantime, the deficit with the Russian Federation has been reduced
as a result of the decrease recorded by the import of natural gas and crude
oil from this country in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.
The deficit recorded with China increased as a consequence of the
imports increases for telephone devices for the mobile telephony and other
kind of networks, this country holding presently the second place within the
hierarchy of the countries of the highest deficits for Romania.
To note also the decrease of the surplus recorded with Bulgaria as a
result of the diminishing of the exports of mineral oil products to this
country.
Positive sold have been recorded mainly with: Serbia, Norway,
Republic of Moldova, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Georgia,
Iraq, United Kingdom, Syrian Arab Republic.
2
92
The biggest weight in 2012 is held by the textiles, the exports of

textiles after active processing representing 37.5% of the total exports and
about 61% of the total exports of textiles. The exports of clothing articles
and accessories, other than the knitted or crocheted one, processed in lohn
system are holding the biggest weight in the frame of the textiles group.
As regards the exports and the imports achieved by the EU member
states during the period 2007-2013, there are at least three common
characteristics to be stated out.
The first characteristic consists of the fact that the evolution of
exports and imports recorded during 2012 as comparatively with 2011,
leave apart some small exceptions such as Ireland, Malta, Finland and
United Kingdom for exports, respectively Estonia, Ireland, Latvia and Malta
for imports, has marked positive trends although, of course, differing from
country to country.
The second characteristic is given by the fact that for both export
and import, all the countries have recorded negative developments which,
I'd say, evidenced a given particularity implied by an increased magnitude,
close to 15 and almost 30%, even over this value in the import case, such as
for instance, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, respectively
Finland.
At last, the third characteristic is marked by the fact that the outrun
of the exports decrease by the imports diminishing led implicitly to the
decrease of the trade deficit3.
The evolution of the trade deficit of the EU member states is
showing in a suggestive way a decrease of the deficit in 2012 for 16
countries including Romania as well, ordered at the left side of the
demarcation line.
Thus, we are meeting two hypostasis: those countries which
increased their trade deficit in 2012 as comparatively with the year 2009:
Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Czech Republic and Hungary and countries
where the surplus recorded in 2009 is maintained in 2011 as well, although
at a relatively lower level. This is the case of Germany, Holland, Sweden
and Finland.
With a diminishing deficit of almost 14%, Romania is joining the
countries having recorded the biggest deficit reductions.
Within the structure by countries, the largest deficits in 2012 have
been recorded with Hungary, China, Kazakhstan, Germany, Austria,
Russian Federation, contrary to the year 2010 when the hierarchy of the
3
Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - Romania in the European Union International

Comparisons, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012
93
countries with which Romania recorded the biggest trade deficits included
countries such as Germany, Russian Federation, Hungary, Kazakhstan,
China and Austria.
The diminishing of the deficit with Germany is also noticeable,
being due to the increase of the exports of cars and auto-vehicles for goods
transportation.
Meantime, the deficit with the Russian Federation has been reduced,
as a consequence of the diminished imports of gas and crude oil from this
country in 2012 as against the year 2011. In fact, the total imports of gas and
crude oil of Romania have been significantly reduced in 2011 and 2012.
The global economic crisis showed itself critically in the foreign
trade field, each month in 2012 recording decreases of the Romanian export
as comparatively with the corresponding months of the year 2009, which
confirmed the tendencies occurring previously, starting with 2008.
The higher dynamics of the exports in comparison with the imports
have generated a decrease of the trade deficit of Romania.
As the submitted statistics are showing, the exports dynamics in
2012 have overrun the imports dynamics.
The evolution of the number of exporters and importers during the
period 2006 2012 is evidencing both the effect of the adhesion of Romania
to the European Union, since January 2007 on, consisting of a significant
increase of their number.
Evolution of the exporters and importers number during period 20062013
100000
Exporters
Importers
80780
80000
61141
68496
67506
68935
68340
68174
68400
21843
22000
21935
22005
60000
40000
21788
24645
21933
20000
15962
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2013.
94
To note that out of about 22005 exporters, 745 exporters (recording

annual exports of over 5 million euro) are covering almost 76% of the
exports volume of the year 2013.
As to the importers, out of about 68340 importers, 1110 importers
(recording annual imports of over 5 million euro) are covering almost 70%
of the imports volume of the year 2013.
Taking into consideration the economic crisis effects on the Romania,
on the basis of estimated data, I have analyzed the international commerce
of goods and services for the first seven months of the year 2013 as well.
The available data at this moment are indicating the fact that the export
dynamics in 2011 is by one percentage point higher than the import
dynamics.
The estimates for the first seven months of the year 2013 are
showing that the exports of agro-alimentary products (including beverage
and tobacco) have recorded an increase of about 4% while the imports have
recorded a decrease of about 1.9%. Approximately 13% of the total
commercial deficit of Romania during the first six months from 2013 is due
to the foodstuff trade.
To note that the weight of the exports and imports of agroalimentary products (including beverage and tobacco) in the total exports,
respectively imports, has decreased during the first six months of 2013 by
about 0.9% in the exports case and by about 2.0% in the case of imports.
The main commercial partners from the European Union for the
exports of agro-alimentary products, beverage and tobacco are the
following: Italy (2% of the total export of agro-alimentary products,
beverage and tobacco), Bulgaria (11%), Hungary (8%), Greece, Germany,
Spain and Holland (with 5% each).
Romania main partner countries for export in 2012
Data source: National Institute of Statistics.
95
The exits of agro-alimentary products towards the European Union

countries held a value weight of about 72% while the entries of agroalimentary products from the European Union countries held a weight of
over 25%.
In the case of the imports of agro-alimentary products imports4,
beverage and tobacco the main commercial partners from the European
Union are the following: Hungary (18% of the total imports of agroalimentary products, beverage and tobacco), Germany (12%), Bulgaria
(8%), Holland (7%), Italy and Poland (with 6% each).
When analyzing the structure by partner countries for Romania
exports and imports, according to the situation being available at the level of
2012, it can be easily stated out that the biggest weights as for the export are
held by: Germany, holding a weight of about 18.6% (the top of the products
being exported to this country comprising plug sets for sparking plugs,
wires, cables, conductors, auto parts and accessories, cars, ships); Italy (over
12.8%, foot-ware, cigarettes, phones, clothing, cars); France (7.5%, cars,
auto parts and accessories, plug sets for sparking plugs, phones, cables,
conductors, tires, bearings, furniture); Turkey (6.2%, raw iron residues, iron
and steel, rolled plates, oil products, phones, cars, cars parts and
accessories); Hungary (5.6%, wires, cables, conductors, oil products, tires,
pumps, refined sun-flower oils, mobile phones devices, electronic
components).
Romania main partner countries for import in 2012
Data source: National Institute of Statistics.
Anghel M.G.(2010) Utilizarea modelelor econometrice n analizele economice,

Simpozionul tiinific Internaional Necesitatea reformei economico sociale a Romniei
n contextul crizei globale, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
96
The biggest weight in the top of the partner countries to import is

held, similar to the exports case, by: Germany with 17.1% (where from
Romania is importing mainly cars, cars parts and accessories, drugs, wires,
cables,) and Italy with 11.3% (leather, foot-ware parts, rolled plates, oil
products, circuits), followed by Hungary, holding a weight of 8.7% of the
total imports (drugs, wires, cables, mobile phone devices, electronic),
France holding over 5.8% (auto-vehicles parts, drugs, turbojets, pumps,
superchargers).
But, in the case of the imports we have to notice the important
partner countries from the extra-communitarian space, such as China
(phones, accumulators and batteries, transformers, foot-ware, electric
circuits), holding 4.6%.
References
Anghel M.G.(2010) Utilizarea modelelor econometrice n analizele
economice, Simpozionul tiinific Internaional Necesitatea reformei
Artifex, Bucureti
Anghelache, C-tin (2013). Romnia 2013. Starea economic sub povara
Anghelache, C-tin (2012). Romnia 2012. Starea economic in criz
perpetu, Editura Economic, Bucureti
Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - Romania in the European Union
International Comparisons, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012
Pagliacci, Mario G.R. et al. (2013) Model For Macroeconomic - Analyse
Based On The Regression Function, Romanian Statistical Review,
Volume (Year): 61 (2013), Issue (Month): 1 (February), pp. 18-30
Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) Statistic pentru afaceri, Editura
ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, ISBN 978-606-647-312-5
2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
*** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 112/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 112/2012 i 1-12/2013 editat de Institutul Naional de Statistic
97
Evolution of GDP: The case of Romania

Adina-Mihaela DINU PhD. Student
Abstract
The study examines the evolution of GDP in the period 2009 - 2012.
The results evidenced by the macroeconomic indicators show a disastrous
trend in this period, as effect of the economic and financial crisis. When
analyzing the data available for 2012, we have to consider as starting point
the actual situation being recorded by our country during this year. Thus,
for instance, the stocks variations recorded a lower contribution, while the
net export, namely the difference between exports and imports, recorded a
more reduced effect, following the reduction of the deficit of the foreign
trade balance.
Key words: GDP; deficit; evolution; analysis; investment
1. The GDP evolution by categories of utilizations

From the point of view of the utilizations in the GDP forming during
the year 2012, there have contributed: the stocks variation, the net export,
the gross forming of fixed capital, the final collective consumption of the
public administration, the final individual consumption of the households.
Under such circumstances, we find out that, from the point of view
of the utilizations, the GDP formation has been achieved by the contribution
of the following factors; gross forming of the fixed capital, final individual
consumption of households with a decrease of -0.4%, which implies the
following conclusions:
- From the point of view of utilizations, positive influences on
the GDP achievement have been recorded by the final
collective consumption of the public administration, stocks
variation and net exports;
- Negative influences on the GDP forming have been recorded
by the final individual consumption of households, and the
gross forming of fixed capital.
The analysis of the influence factors of the GDP forming by
categories of utilizations may be emphasized by the analysis of rhythm at
which, the categories of utilizations considered for the GDP achievement
98
have influenced this achievement in 2013 comparatively with 2012. Thus,

the individual consumption of households and the collective consumption of
the public administration, together, have been reduced. A more marked
decrease has been recorded by the net export. Another negative effect has
been recorded by the rhythm of increasing of the gross forming of fixed
capital.
The GDP evolution during 2013 follows line of going on the
recovery road from the process of recession. During the first six months of
the year 2013, the "un-accounted" negative effects of the year 2010-2013
have been taken over and then continued with a slight increase, maintained.
Thus, the GDP has not yet reached the level recorded in 2009; most
of the branches recorded negative contributions, which implies the entrance
into a macroeconomic managerial mess; the structure by branches and
utilizations has been negative. In 2012, GDP grew by 1.1% as against 2011
and follows an oscillatory course in 2013, recording, during the first six
months of the year an increase of 1.8% as against the same period of the
previous year.
The survey on the economic evolution, considering the
modifications of the GDP in the European Union countries, emphasizes the
extremely critical situation existing on the European and, at a larger extent,
international plan.
2. GDP evolution - seasonally adjusted series
As from the III quarter 2008, the seasonally adjusted Gross
Domestic Product recorded a constant decrease from one to another quarter.
The biggest decrease has been recorded during the 1st quarter 2009 as
against the IV quarter 2008 (-4.1%).then, the GDP evolution, seasonally
adjusted on the number of working days, constantly until 4th quarter, 2010.
The weight of the main categories of utilizations in GDP
Indicator
Actual individual
consumption of
the households
Actual collective
consumption of
the public
administration
Capital gross
forming
Stocks variations
Year
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
75.7 77.5 78.5 77.9 75.3 74.0 72.7 72.6 72.4 72.7
9.8
7.9
8.3
7.7
7.6
7.7
8.2
7.1
7.3
7.1
21.5
21.8
23.7
25.6
30.2
31.9
25.6
22.5
22.3
22.2
0.6 1.8 -0.3 0.9 0.8 -0.6 -0.6

Net export
-7.6 -9.0 -10.2 -12.1 -13.9 -13.0 -5.9
Data source: National Institute of Statistics
3.5
3.9
4.1
-5.7
-5.9
-5.7
99
When analyzing the quarterly evolution of the seasonally adjusted

GDP during the year 2010 comparatively with the corresponding quarter of
the previous year, it can be stated out that the biggest decrease has been
recorded during the II quarter while the smallest one occurred during the
fourth quarter. The same positive rhythm was also observed in 203 1.
During Quarter IV, 2011 and Quarter I, 2012, GDP decreases were recorded
again. During the third and fourth quarters of 2012, and also during the first
and second trimesters of 2012, GDP increased in a slow rhythm1.
In connection with the other European Union member countries,
Romania recorded for the IV quarter 2010 as against the previous quarter,
an economic decrease while a significant number of countries have recorded
increases (Belgium, Denmark, France, Lithuania, Austria, Poland, Slovenia,
Great Britain), or recorded decreases below 0.5%. Meantime, the overall
GDP of the EU increased by 0.1 %.
Comparatively with the IV quarter 2008, in 2009, 2010, 2011 and
2012, the EU member countries have recorded reduced volumes of the
GDP, the biggest ones being recorded Latvia (-17.9%) and Lithuania (13.2%), followed by Romania (-6.9%), Slovenia (-5.8%) and Hungary (5.3%). The overall decrease at the EU level counted for -2.3%. In 2009, it
has maintained an accelerated decrease rhythm.
In 2010, fourth quarter and 2011, some recovery, but uncertain, due
to the crisis within the Euro union. In 2012, the unconvincing evolution of
GDP continues, and in 2013 the first signs that show the beginning of a
growth have occurred, a growth that is to manifest in the following period
too.
Significant contributions to the negative evolution of the GDP during
2010, 2011 and 2012 comparatively with 2009 are given by the
constructions, which recorded a decrease as well as by the section trade,
cars and households appliances repair, hotels and restaurants, transports and
telecommunications recording a decrease.
The other branches have recorded small decreases of activity
volumes.
The previously mentioned branches had the highest negative impact
on the GDP volume decrease during the period 2009- 2012 comparatively to
2008, as they have recorded decreases.
As far as the utilization is concerned, the highest impact on the GDP
decrease during the period 2009- 2012 comparatively with 2008, went to the
gross forming of fix capital, the individual consumption of the population
households, the collective consumption of the public administrations.
Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - Romania in the European Union International

Comparisons, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012
100
The increase of the exports of goods and services had a positive

impact2.
According to the seasonally adjusted data, the gross forming of Fix
capital had the biggest negative contribution. These reductions have been
partially compensated by the increase of the volume of the exports of goods
and services, and the collective consumption of the public administration.
GDP structure by categories of utilizations,
in 2012
Indicator
Gross Domestic Product
Final consumption
Gross forming of fix capital
Export of goods and
services
Import of goods and
services
Net export of goods
Romania
578551.9
441657.1
166675.7
221841.1
251623.1
-29780.9
Data source: National Institute of Statistics
Based on a comparison between the GDP structure by categories of

utilizations in Romania as against the EU, there is a superior weight of the
gross forming of fix capital and a lower weight of the exports of goods and
services in Romania comparatively with the European Union.
3. The achievement of the Gross Domestic Product by ownership
forms
Out of the performed analysis, it results that for the period 20092012, for which there are provisional data, the private sector contributed
with 72.4%-75.4% to the GDP forming. The weight of the private sector,
still low, has been generated mainly by the gross added value in the
agriculture. Such an influence is a normal one if to consider that the
agriculture has to face negative natural conditions.
If comparing the weight of the private sector in the GDP
achievement with the Figures recorded for the previous periods, we find out
that this weight is superior to all the periods being analyzed as from the year
2000, even as from the year 1990, up to date.
In 2010-2012, for which we are actually performing a complete
analysis, we find that the weight of the private sector in the gross added
value increased as for the constructions field.
2
101
What is really important is the fact that the weight of the private
sector in the achievement of the gross added value by branches of the
national economy and, eventually, to the GDP forming, kept on maintaining
at a high level.
Gross Domestic Product
weight of the private sector in 2004 2012
- in % -
80
70
75,4
71,5 69,9 69,8 70,2 73,2 72,4 72,8 73,5
69,4
68,0
67,7
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*2012**
*1)
Semi-final data. **) Estimate data.
It is obvious that the privatization of other administrations or

extending the privatization at the level of branches already privatized will
have the targeted effect.
Here we have to underline the fact that such an analysis is not
always pertinent since there will be and remain sectors of activity absolutely
important for the national economy for which the state must keep its
attributes of sole owner3.
4. Direct foreign investments
The year 2012 was a year when a series of sectors of activity kept on
getting privatized while those already privatized kept on increasing their
patrimony (capitals) by attracting new autochthonous and foreign
3

n contextul crizei globale, Editura Artifex, Bucureti, 2010
102
investments which, from the point of view of the effects on the national
economy structure is an important aspect to consider4.
Under the circumstances, according to the data provided by the
NBR, it is resulting that in 2010 the total value of the direct foreign
investment in Romania reached the level of 3,914 and for 2011, it had the
value of 3,329,432.4 thousand euro, in 2012 it was 2,856,416.6 thousand
euro and recorded a value of 1,066,398.4 thousand euro for the first seven
months of 2013.
The value of the foreign direct investment flows
- million euro2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*)
9496 3488 2220 1920 1204 2315
4873 1729 1824 1817 916
1805
396 594 288
510
4623 1759
Indicator
Total
Capital share
Intra-group
credits
Data source: National Bank of Romania

*)
Provisional data, on six months
In the year 2010, 1,824 million euro of the direct foreign investment
has been placed in the sector of participations to capital and 396 million
euro represented intra-group credits
The value of the foreign direct investment flows
million euro9496
9061
7250
5213
4899*)
2220
1920
1204
2315
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**2012***2013***

*)
semi-definitive data, **) revised data, ***) provisional data, 30.06.2013

Data source: National Bank of Romania.
103
Meantime, by the end of 2010, the direct investment of the Romanian

residents abroad counted for 1,675 million euro, this being the contribution
evaluated by the documentary system available in the country.
The year 2012 reveals a situation hard to figure. The foreign direct
investment counted for 1,240 million euro only. Out of this amount, 69.3%
have represented capital shares and 30.7% intra-group credits.
The structure of the foreign capital flows invested in the Romania
economy is shown in the following table.
Value of the foreign direct investment flow
in 2012
- million euro Indicator
2012 *)
Total
1204
Capital share
916
Re-invested profits
73
Intra-group credits
215
*)
Provisional data.
Data source: National Bank of Romania.
Acknowledgement:
This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral
Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project
number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/I42115 performance and excellence in doctoral
and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain".
References
Artifex, Bucureti, 2010
Anghelache, C. (2012) Romania 2012. Starea economica in criza
perpetua, Editura Economica, Bucuresti
Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) Correlation between GDP direct
investments-An econometric approach, Metalurgia International, Nr.
8/2012, pp. 96-98
104
Anghelache, C, Anghelache, G.V. (2012) GDP and the final

consumption of Romania. Evolution and correlation in the last decades,
Metalurgia International, Nr. 8/2012, pp. 158-160
Anghelache, C., Cucu, V. (2012). Model for the analysis of GDP,
Metalurgia International, Nr. 5/2012, pp. 182-185
Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - Romania in the European Union
International Comparisons, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012
Andrei, E.A., Bugudui, E. (2011) Modelarea econometrica a seriei de
timp GDP, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Nr. 10/2011, pp. 91-98
*** Anuarul statistic al Romaniei, editiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008,
2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
*** Statistical Bulletin no. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 112/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011 and 112/2012, National Institute of Statistics, www.insse.ro
105
The Necessary EE-societal Management (E(E- SM)

Approach
Nicolae COSTAKE
CMC, SRS, IEEE, AMCOR
Abstract
The present article follows up an analysis developed in previous

papers, regarding the use of ICT by public institutions with well established
aims. Societal management based on ICT and system engineering can
provide the needed governance advanced technology. The article includes a
description of the general context, a model for the SES of a country, and a
short description of a possible e-sm information system. The author makes
use of annexes in order to illustrate his statements.
Key words: ICT, society, economy, management, resources
1. Introduction
1.1 The present paper synthesises a presentation before the Onicescu
Seminar in April, 2014 and complements former papers;.eGovernment(eGov) means the use of f ICT by the public institutions in
order to: :(i) minimise the bureaucracy generating administrative burdens
for population and business and (ii) offering on-line acces. e-SM1 adds:
(iii) shared use of ICT and of coherent informational resources of public
institutions (which become interoperable); (iv) one-step acces to public
information including also for the private sector; (v) increased governance
performance of the socio-economic system (SES) through: improved quality
of the decisions, including their higher proactive / reactive ratio, (vi)
minimisation of the cost of informatisation and of the losses generated by
the shadow economy (SE) including fiscal evasion and corruption due to
societal mismanagement (SmM).=> feasible SM objectives can be: 1)
economic growth; 2) jobs and social protection for all (children, disabled,
sicks, old folk, unemployed & refusing training and/or offered jobs); 3)
increasing civilization; 4) eradication of the SE; 5) protection for the future
generations. 6) Complyance to science and technology trends.
The1 e-SM concept was proposed by Costake, N. and accepted in InformATion Science
and echnology Encyclopedia, 2nd edition, vol1 1300-1309 IGI Herhey (USA)
106
1.2 SM based on ICT and system engineering can provide the

needed governance advanced techology, (perhaps the last field in which the
traditional one still prevails as the support to politicians) .
1.3 The papers logical flow is: (i) brief discussion on global and
national contexts;(ii) a proposed high level (HL) model of SES such as a
country; (iii) a hypothesis on human socio-economic behaviour; (iv) a HL
model of the e-SM information system; (v) a first cost-benefit estimation for
case study Romania (RO) (vi) a few final suggestions. The small available
room imposed schematic descriptions and very few references..
2. The general context
2.1 The global context (of Terra): includes: a) automatic cosmic and
telluric cycles and events (C&Es) (e.g. received radiated solar energy
diurnal and seasonal cycles); stochastic impacts of large cosmic objects;
earthquaqes etc.); b) C&Es influenced also by human activities (e.g. some
climatic changes due to uncontrolled de-forestations)as; c) C&Es generated
by human activities (e.g. pollution; ozone layers holes, overconsumption of
biologic natural resourcess (BNRs) regeneration capacity or exhaustion of
non-biologic natural deposits) or drinkwater or clean air etc. (nBNRs); d)
SmM e.g. (i) economic and financial crisis; (ii) SE losses; (iii) polarization
of the populations wealth distribution towards very poor and veryrich =>
socio-economic tensions; (iv) endemic economic, ethnic and/or religious
tensions till armed fights.
2.2 The national context (RO) adds: a) missing SESs mid and long
range development strategy , hence no socio-economic synergy; b) high
annual new legislation and frequent amendments => disturbing the business
and justice environments; c) possible not specified roles, missions,
responsibilities and key performance indicators (KPIs)for public
institutions; d) many political managerial nominations (not competence); e)
the press signals trends versus systemic corruption, f) the organisation of the
public sector as a collection of islands without access to a coherent
centralized database => .stimulating bureaucracy and quasy autonomous
sectoral and territorial policies.even if some of the local activities imply
national or international decisions.
2.3 Conclusions: both contexts suggest the need of e-SM, taking into
account ee.g. a) the global dangers and risks: [1]; global global international
studies [2]; international and national approaches [3],to [6] and academic
approaches proposing new SM oriented needed decisions [7], [8], [9].,
examples of SmM [10],[11].[12] .
107
3. A high level (HL) qualitative model of the countrys SES.

3.1 Annex A proposes a country SES model, capable to include
macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects; based on five societal
subsystems
a) natural resources (SNR): i) non-biologic (land, submarine,
underground); (ii) biologic ( a large variety of species, from monocellular to
mammal animals, subject to automatic biological cycles and trofic chains)
b) population (SSP): superior mammal beings:citizens or residents,
families, households and dwellings.; their intelligence is the key factor for
art, culture technical and technological progress (TTP);; they can grow
whithout automatic limit hence great consumers =>key economic
engines(EE). Their territorial communities are components of SSO
c) operational (SSO): non-financial organizations (e.g. enterprises,
NGOs ,commercial societies, exchanges, etc.) and financial organizations
(banks, insurance organizations, currency conversion shops etc). They can
be public or private or mixed ones. Their EE activities add economicfinancial or social values
d) societal management (SMS), including the following
authorities:(i)
executive:,
assuring
the
current
societal
management:(1..symbolic person ( president or monarch; 2. government and
its central, sectoral and territorial public institutions; 3. central bank
depositing the SESs financial reserves; producing or retiring the national
currency; maintainig the inflation within admissible range; regulating the
financial sector;;(ii) homeostatic: (1 legislative : defining in parliament the
mandatory specifications for the organization and functioning of the SES; 2.
judiciary: stating and punishing the deviations from law and clearing
conflicts; (iii) societal informational feedback (1 official statistics; 2.
electoral feedbacks information system (supports the participa-tive eDemocracy); 3. Court of accounts; 4 other authorized controlling public
instituions (IPs); 5.internal and external information
services; all
complemented by 6 the free media in SSO; (iv) spiritual: community of
authorized religions, representing the Divinity (as NGOs connected to SSP
and to the executive authority)
e) societal hidden economy (SHE) beyond law (toxic).generating
mainly public financial and non-financial losses for SES
3.2 The above 5 subsystems (a)e)) are interconnected and in same
time connected to international SESs and organizations. The subsystems b)
(except population) to e). are artefacts. Their functioning and evolutions
depend on (i) the knowledge, activities, (ii) behaviours and other human
108
invariants and (iii) the automatic biologic, lluric and cosmic C&Es. The
connections can be uni or bi-directional. and can be classified as:f) physical:
1 energy (radiated or embedded in transported substances or embedded in
fluids (e.g. moving water or wind etc), or 2 materials (including goods i.e:
products or services) or 3 information (including data and knowledge) or 4
human migration or man-months-qualifications (hired or working in
organizations) or 5 financial means (cash or electronic money or financial
titles) or 6 transactions (selling - buying or contracting etc.) or 6 public or
private services paid (according to fees or free (financed by SMS from
taxations). Notice: material flows can be stored in and extracted from
reservoirs or deposits) g) logical: 1 parentage hierarchy; 2owner - property;
3owner -tenant; 4 employer-employed; 5 creditor-debtor ;; 6 location
(geographic);7 territorial hierarchy etc.
3.3 Comments
a) The SESs subsystems may host processes such as:e.g. (i)
automatic biological processes (perhaps genetically modified); (ii) physical
and/or chemical; (iii) exploration; (iv) .collection; (v) transportation; (vi)
processing (transformation) (vii) financial processes; (viii) commercial
processes; (ix) informational and / or communications processes; (x)
managerial processes ; (xi) defense and fight processes etc.
b) A performant SM needs (i) a detailed model of the SESs
organisation and functioning; (ii) specification ; of the eSMs objectives;
(iii) the definition of the relevant invariants (one example in Annex B) (iv)
system engineering based SESs theory; (v) solid information system and
legislative supports; and (vi) advanced governance software support. The
classical management of organisations is not sufficient (see Annex C).
4. A short description of a possible e-sm information system
In the advanced countries the adoption of e-Gov was an evolutive
process; it is reasonable to believe that a similar approach will implement
the eSM. In the less developed countries, because of the big losses of the
traditional governance,, it is necessary to use a controlled faster
implementation. The general architectural conception is suggested in
Annexes D(an :informational coherence kernel (ICK), i.e the centralized
coherent knowledge and databases, continously and automatically updated
for supporting the governance software) and Annex (an e-SM information
system platform). Following steps are envisaged: (i) strategic planning (ii)
legislative approval of (iii) organizational structure (e-SM services and ICT
inspection corpse of the prime-minister; (iv) in parallel 1 ICKs design;::2
109
reengineering of prioritary information systems with embedded PKIs (e,g :

(*). advanced legislation database and computer aided drafting new laws
option;); (**). advanced judicial centralized case database for prosecutors
and judges; (***) advanced public treasury information system for
managing multi annual public budgets and tracing the flow of taxes and
other public revenues and also tracing the flows of re-distribution etc.; 3
SESs advanced theory ;(iv) stepwise implementation. Of course, meeting
performance needs nomination in managerial positions in PIs conditioned
by (i) competence (knowledge of the field and managerial experience) and
(ii) management and leadership aptitudes (also general interest .> personal
interest) evaluated using psycho-technical techniques..
5. Preliminary example of a cost-benefit estimation.
A preliminary cost -benefit estimation for Romania is presented in
Annex F, It is based on exaggerating costs and minimizing benefits. The
synthetic conclusion is: 1 EUR paid may generates a benefit of 2,5 EUR .
6. Final conclusions
a) The global and national riks and issues need e-SM as now there is
the ICT-feasible.[17]
b) The great losses of the traditional Governance Technology can
make eSM one of the largest political and ICT business.in the interest of the
SES and its citizens.
(Very few) References
World Economic Forum: Global Risk Report 2013
http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-risks
GEO5, UNEP Global Environment Outlook 2012
http://www.unep.org/geo/geo5.asp
Information Economy Report 2012 UNCTAD
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ier2012_en.pdf
Digital Agenda (2010) European Commission COM (2010) 744 final) annex 1) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda
EIF (2010) European Interoperability Framework . European Commission
COM (2010) 744 (final) Annex 2 2011)
http://ec.europa.eu/isa/documents/isa_annex_ii_eif_en.pdf
Obama, B, (2013): Memorandum for the heads of executive departments
and agencies on Transparency and Open Goverenment,
110
White House : http://www.hitehouse.gov/our-government/state-and-localgovernment

Johnson, I. & Jacobs, G. (2012): Crises and Opportunities: a Manifesto for
Change Club of Rome (Retrieved October 2012)
,http://cadmusjournal.org/article/issue-5/crises-and-opportunities-manifestochange
Stiglitz, J. (2012) :The price of Inequality: How Todays Divided Society
Endangers Our Future by Joseph E. Stiglitz Translated by
Publica, Bucharest in 2013 (see 427 - 463)
Greco, T Jr. (2009): The End of Money and the Future of Civilization by
Thomaa H. Greco, Jr. Translated in Romanian by Curtea
Veche Publishing, Bucharest, 2001 (26-29)
Anghelache, C. (2012) Romania 2012 .Starea economica in criza perpetua.
Ed. Economica, Bucuresti
Fota, D. (2007) Cum se ruineaza o economie nationala, Ed. Universitara
Bucuresti,
Schneider, F. (2010) Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World:
new estimates for 145 countries Economics,.July 24th 1-4)
http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/20079/version_1
EU Anti Corruption Report European Commission COM(2014) 38 final
Maslow, A ,1954 The Hierarchy of Needs
http://www.businessballs.com/maslow.htm
Huitt,
2007):
Maslows
Hierarchy
of
Needs
ttp://www.edpsycinteractive.org/topics/regsys/maslow.html
Mc Gregor. D (1960)
The human side of Enterprise
http://www.businessballs.com/mcgregor.htm
Ouchi, W. (1981); How American Management can meet the Japanese
Challenge http://www.businessballs.com/mcgregor.htm
Costake, N., Zahan, E. (2010) Management Consulting for IT
implementation in the Romanians Public Sector:Science? Art? Need for
a new conceptual approach Svasta, M. (coord) AMCOR (financed
by EBRD and AMCOR)
111
ANNEX-A: THE HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC

SYSTEM (SES) PI: Public
Institution
ANNEX- B:. EXAMPLE OF A SOCIETAL MANAGEMENT

INVARIANT: HUMAN ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR
112
ANNEX C- A BRIEF COMPARISON BETWEEN THE

ORGANIZATIONAL AND SOCIETAL MANAGEMENTS
ANNEX D - A HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF THE OF THE INFORMATION

COHERENCE KERNEL (ICK)S ARHITECTURE
ANNEX-E-HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF AN ARHITECTURE OF THE eSM INFORMATION SYSTEM PLATFORM
*) apart using the ICK, can administrate some ICK components,and may develop specific own databases, but
using the metadata and the ICK knowledghe base **) responsibility of the supplying companies; ***) help
desk}
The above described architecture (see also [18]) has in mind followings: (i) compatibility with the EUs approach,
solutions and documents UE; (ii) stepwise building of the National Interoperability System (NIS), according to the
stepwise building of the ICK, in order to progress the reengineering of the public administration based on the
progress of the ICK, every achieved objective being compatible with the future ones. (iii) it permits the parallel
achievement of the prioritary objectives; . and (iv) permits the minimization of losses due to the Hidden
Economy and also the minimization of the ICT costs e.g. by the increased proactive governance decisions against
reactive ones. (v) assures a strategic solution by maximizing the (performance / cost ratio) at national level,
recuperating investments, technical services costs and running costs (vi) the existing ICT resources in the public
sector ICT can be adapted and connected to the above conceptual diagram.
113
114
Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local

Elections Candidate An Applied
Applied Statistics
Research
Assoc. professor Gheorghe SVOIU, PhD,
Assoc. professor Emil BURTESCU, PhD,
Assist. Marian AICU, PhD
University of Piteti
Abstract
This article devoted to the delimitation of candidate profile, by means of an
opinion survey representative of various categories of voters placed in the same
area or locality, vitally depended on the perception of the people the
questionnaire-based research was addressed to, on the categories of questions,
solutions and interpretations that are most likely to be targets of the readers
interest; they were presented in the kind of language that all of them are used to,
thus aiming to maximize the utility and impact of the research through its
usefulness, and anticipating its regular resuming, as well as a permanent adequacy
of the form, and even the style of the paper.
Key words: election statistics, sampling survey, sample rate, questionnaire,
statistical profile, local candidate, voter perception.
JEL Code: C40, C46, C52, R50, R58.
1. Introduction
This article is dedicated to investigating and identifying public
perception concerning the delimitation of local election candidate profile (in
the city of Piteti), and especially to the capitalization of statistical thinking
as a way to build a profile. The authors have used the statistical profile
method before (Svoiu, Manea and Simoni, 2008; Svoiu, udanov, Vladu,
2012), a method proposed since 2008, obtaining interesting results in
various fields, such as demography, economics, labor market, innovative
educational management, etc. Last but not least, by training a team of
students in the research, as interviewers, and later as staff for making the
database, the objective was achieved of better practical integrating the
discipline of statistics through applied research: and the secondary title of
the paper reflects fully this aspect.
115
The concrete steps to achieving the research over one month (March
2014) were the ones described below: a) calculating the volume variants of
the in relation to the accepted error margin of the survey and selecting the
respondents distinctly by specific locations (districts): March 10 to 12; b)
achieving the questionnaire in variants intended for the respondents
(questionnaire for in-field interview): March 12 to 16; c) getting the
agreement of the general partner of the research and publishing the survey
questionnaire: March 17 to 19; d) collecting and recording the data in the
questionnaire: March 20 to 26; e) data processing and obtaining the final
indicators of the research (presented synthetically in the graphs as answers
to questions): March 27 to 29; f) writing the final report and publication of
the results: 30 to 31 March 2014.
The multiple goals of the research, which are described below, were
achieved and validated through the agreeing of the final report by the
general partner, without revisions or any other subsequent requirements.
2. Methodological aspects characteristic of the research and
originality of the questionnaire
The main objective of the research was to delimit the local elections
candidates profile from the collection, recording and processing, subject to
evaluation, of the views of voters in Piteti. The general description of the
research highlighted its key objectives, firt of all determining the quotas
for the following statistical variables:
Table no. 1: Quotas or structural landmarks in the population of Piteti
(share of the survey base)
Explanations
Number
Gender
Male
633
Female
677
Age
18-30
217
31-60
780
>60
313
Occupational status
Employer
9
Employees
631
116
%
48,32
51,68
16,56
59,54
23,89
0,69
48,17
Explanations
Retired
Unemployed
Housewives
Students
Number
428
50
110
82
%
32,67
3,82
8,40
6,26
Source: Data from the last census, and data updated in 2013
The procedure of detailing the voter population structure in order to

accurately determine the quotas led to the determination of several layers of
voters according to the variables studied, which were recalculated in the
amount of the sample at the level of overall research, and at team level per
interviewer.
The data were collected using an original questionnaire, by the
agency of 10 in-field interviewers, who used the direct method of
investigation, "face to face" with the potential voters or the voting
population (over 18 years) .
The steps of evaluating the size of the sample were the classic ones,
as described in theoretical terms below:
Box 1: The sample steps taken in order to conduct the research
Step I set goals and resources needed for the research or project (detailing the
goals, methods and a minimal budget outline related to the research). The intial
time landmarks structured the research based on a survey, whose observation and
data processing went on over only three weeks in March 2014. The spatial
landmarks at the beginning of the research targeted the Piteti area (only the city,
detailing the districts as specific territorial structures). The financial landmarks or
the surveys opportuneness-to-cost requirements highlighted the need to limit the
sample size to a restricted sampling of information (1310 in the end).
Step II set up the use of the selective research results and the potential confidence
level of parameter estimates.
Step III delimited the total population over time (temporally defining the simple
statistical units, i.e. the respondent, with respect to space (the geographical area of
the districts in the city of Piteti), organization (delimitation, through volunteering,
of the mechanical step or pitch/pace), and even structurally (the Pareto internal
delineation of the subpopulations by neighborhoods ).
Step IV forced the team to check the homogeneity of the total population, which
also induced the first technical effects: the homogeneous population required a
simple random sample, and the heterogeneous population provided two
alternatives, a stratified random under the constraint of simple units (respondents or
inhabitants) or a random series survey urged by the complex units (identical blocks
of flats in the old city).
117
Step VI identified the sample size, the sampling techniques (extraction) and the
calculation procedures of the estimators, sample extraction and alignment (its
sampling).
Step VII accurately established the variables, the observation plan, the methods of
data acquisition (directly by interviewer and investigator, who use, as a recording
medium, a tested and piloted questionnaire) and the periodicity of the survey
(resumption of such a survey in order to determine the impact of hierarchy,
connected with the periodicality of local elections).
Step VIII required training and preparing the staff able to ensure knowledge of the
topic beforehand, knowing the reaction of the respondents, the need to improve the
questionnaire (interview) via the pilot survey, the preliminary test and test
interview.
Step IX coincided with finishing the development of the forms, and printing them.
Step X combined sample data collection and recording and the calculation of
estimates at the level of the subpopulation extracted.
Step XI chose the procedures of checking the significance of the estimators and the
technique of inferentiating (expansion) of the sample results to the total population,
the accuracy of which is determined by the threshold level of significance
(parameter estimation).
Step XII analyzed and interpreted data and made conclusions that were
included in the final report of the research.
Source: The steps were adapted to the concrete research from Svoiu, G., (2012) , Statistic
general cu aplicaii n contabilitate, Ed. Universitar / General statistics with applications
in accounting, University Publishing House, Bucharest, pp. 132-133
The practical determination of the size of the sample that was taken
was done both to assess the costs of research, and to organize data collection
activities. First the limit (i.e. maximum allowable) error of
representativeness was stated, the probability with which it is intended to
derive the survey indicators, the level to which a given table value of
argument z corresponds. Instead of the dispersion of the original population,
the maximum and minimum values of the original population were
capitalized for the simplicity of calculation, for an alternative or binary
variable, and a maximum dispersion was obtained:
=
(1)
(for an alternative or binary variable, the error was the maximum one, i.e.
equal to 0.25).
The statistical determination is done for z = 2.18, and it identifies a
sample volume of n1
n1 =
118
= 1304,73
(2)
that is 1,305 people surveyed

= 0.03
z = 2.18
= 0.25
N = 112,000 estimated people voting, in keeping with the total population
data for the population of Piteti, diminished with the population under 18
estimated.
This volume of the sample was an acceptable option for the final
level of the research (maximum error 3% of general opinions). The final
sample size was slightly increased, for practical considerations, to 1,310
final questionnaires needed (according to the calculation, where there were
actually 1,305 investigable people, but in order to distribute perfectly equal
and real shares, i.e. through integers from interviewers, the number was
eventually rounded to 1,310).
Detailing the research method and sampling techniques has already
been described, to which we need to add that, because we deal with opinions
and delimiting a voter perceptions related profile of sampling, the sampling
technique was based on quotas (observing the general structure of the
population Piteti).
In the selection of interviewees practice, the procedure was based on
the mechanical pace, and, in the impact areas of public parks, libraries,
convenience stores, supermarkets, cinemas, and ten interviewers covered all
the districts in Piteti.
The questionnaire was designed in an original manner, and included
11 questions, taken in-depth prior questioning of the residents and corrected
with a set of requirements of the general partner, nine having a generally
closed, and pre-coded, answer, respectively, and an open question (question
10).
In accordance with the range of topics related to an original electoral
opinion barometer of the residents of the city of Pitet, the following were
pursued:
1-3. The general political and administrative, economic and social
profile;
4. The particular profile, in keeping with the expectations;
5. Defining variables: gender, age, wealth, marital status, political
orientation, cultural level in the profile of the candidate;
119
6-7. The relation between Government and Arge County Council

and the realtion between Government and Piteti City Council in the opinion
of the voter,
8-9. Priorities of the parties and the nation in the voters perception;
10. The first step taken by a new political party or one of its
candidates on the political scene;
11. The hierarchy of the first 5 parties in the next elections.
All these questions are detailed and illustrated in Annex 1 of the
article.
3.Results and discussion
The profile is shown by the dominant answers to the questions I1I11, and are structured by gender, age group and employment status in the
60 pages of the research in a detailed manner. For this article the general
questions and indicators were selected, unstructured and summarized in
Table 2, by percentage, in a common questionnaire for the 1,310
respondents.
Table no. 2: Responses to the questions of the surbey, in percentages
1. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of political and
administrative policies?
University graduate (and practice)
10,5% 4.
New n politics
12,1% 1.
Experienced in administrative matters
23,5% 2.
A well-read individual, speaking for 13,7% 5.
everybody to understand
Belonging to the city (born, or living 8,7%
3.
He/She does what he/she says
31,2% 6.
there)
Other (details): 0,3%
7.
_______________________________________________________________________________
2. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of economic status?
Manager of a public institution
10,6% 1.
No economic debts
11,1% 4.
Businessman,
who
generated 40,2% 2.
Achieved a project of local development
20,2% 5.
employment
Owner of an income over the 8,3%
3.
Formulated a (coherent) local economic 9,5%
6.
average
policy
7.
_______________________________________________________________________________
3. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of social status?
Good parent in a traditional family
12,8% 1.
Having had an official position
17,0% 4.
Good neighbor
7,3%
2.
Show respect for the social group they 31,0% 5.
belong to
Makes donations from own income
17,9% 3.
Being respected by the social group they13,8% 6.
belong to
7.
4. What are your major expectations from a candidate?
Pursue the objectives of the 32,5% 1.
Should not appear as defendant in a case 10,5% 4.
electoral programme they were
of corruption during the four years of his /
elected for
her mandate
Draw an annual activity report and 15,3% 2.
Attract major investments in infrastructure 25,0% 5.
make it public
(e.g. Sibiu-Piteti highway)
120
Be stable in their relations with the

voters (communication unchanged
for the worse)
5. Candidate profile
GENDER / SEX
Male
10,8%
5,5%
6.
7.
MARITAL STATUS
27% Married
78,8%Single
21,2%
61,7%Young
POLITICAL
ORIENTATION
38,3%Left
53,1%Right
46,9%
74,4%Average citizen
25,6%
WEALTH
Rich
Should not gain weight during their

mandate
73% Female
Age
Middle-aged
3.
CULTURE
49,3%Average income
50,7%Cultivated
6. Relation between Government and Arge County Council. What must prevail in the decisions of the
candidate you voted for?
The opinion of the Government
43,9% 1.
The opinion of the Councty 56,1% 2.
Council
7. Relation between Government and Piteti local Council. What must prevail in the decisions of the candidate
you voted for?
The opinion of the Government
38,5% 1.
The opinion of the local Council
61,5% 2.
8. In a partys polities, the first place should be held by one of the following priorities:
Jobs created in the public / private sector.
23,4% 1.
Education and health
20,1% 4.
Investment and attracting investors
16,2% 2.
Salaries / other incomes
17,3% 5.
Pensions / aids
19,2% 3.
Production of goods and services
3,7%
6.
9. Romanias main problems in the current period are related to:
Corruption
30,4% 1.
Political conflicts
14,1% 4.
Generation gap
4,1%
2.
Revenue low or no income
38,3% 5.
Disruption of family cohesiveness
3,4%
3.
Scarce or no foreign investment
9,6%
6.
7.
10. According to your expectations, which should be the first step a newly appeared party takes?
For this question special explanations are detailed in Box no. 2
11. If elections were held tomorrow, what would be the order of the first five parties?
PSD
Ranking
PMP
(59,6%)
1
(4,7%)
PNL
Ranking
PPDD
(19,7%)
2
(5,9%)
PDL
(9,8%) Ranking
Other
3
(0,4%)
Ranking
5
Ranking
4
Ranking
As a general feature, the remarkable accuracy of the research is

especially visible: the final figures for question 11 are very close to those
expected, e.g. the first party described in the research as having pro opinions
of 59.68% of the voters, finally picked 60%, which translates as a very
small error (close to the 5% margin) for a debut research, not yet calibrated
with a completely new questionnaire and very young staff, entirely
conducted in a single month. For I10 a special box was built for the
interpretation and aggregation of the results from this question, the only
open one.
121
Explanations of the homogenization and aggregation of responses to the

open question no. 10
Box. 2
The four main aggregations of the interviewees responses to the open question
I10, which required identification (specification) of the first steps of a new party
entering the political arena or the new partys candidate, are described below:
a) social measures of siginificant impact on social welfare (increase pensions,
salaries, allowances and other incomes): 406 responses;
b) steps meant to ensure economic development and solve the serious economic
imbalances: creating jobs (317 responses), and attracting and making investment
(233 responses);
c) measures against corruption (80 responses)
d) measures meant to reduce taxes (28 replies)
Note: The diversity of the 246 remaining responses allowed no other substantial
aggregations (measures for health and education occur sporadically among the
other measures, but they could not be reunited as significant solutions representing
at least 2% of the opinions), and they all were brought together under the heading
other measures.
Source: The data from the 1310 open to question I10 questionnaires were
processed by the authors.
With no other similar researches, no confrontations or comparisons

with the electoral research in Piteti in the same field can be conducted; the
adequacy and completeness of the sampling base speak for themselves
about the originality of the research, and, together with the overall accuracy
they lend it special efficiency, and of course, its pioneering character.
4.Conclusions
The simplicity of the final results brings about specific research
findings, which thus become a piece of evidence of the same intrinsic
originality of the methodology, and also the practical approach, while the
interpretation of results is quite easy, and the synthesis of paper is the
substitute of the 60-page section of structural graphs, or of columns that
functioned as visual support for the final logical findings. The research is
currently static (the moment is a zero one), but it can be applied regularly,
thus identifying continuities or discontinuities of quality perception of local
candidates, upward or downward trends, changes in general or partial
hierarchy, with emphasis on the obviousness of certain aspects, their
122
applicability, and the final recommendations. Resuming it is recommended

at intervals not exceeding the duration of an electoral cycle (i.e. four years),
or even more frequently, when changes or government reshuffle occur.
Time adequation remains the royal way of research, and translates into
choosing the most suitable repetition intervals and the most relevant space
or time of analysis.
References
Porojan, D., (1993), Statistica i teoria sondajului, Ed. ansa SRL,
Bucureti.
Svoiu, G. (2004), Statistic aplicat n domeniul economic i social, Ed.
Independena Economic, Piteti.
Svoiu, G., coord. (2005). Cercetri i modelri de marketing. Metode
cantitative n cercetarea pieei Ed. Universitar, Bucureti, 2005.
Svoiu, G., (2011), Statistica pentru afaceri, Ed. Universitar Bucureti.
Svoiu, G., (2010), Gndirea statistic aplicat, Ed. Universitar,
Bucureti.
Svoiu, G., udanov, M., Vladu, M., (2012). Profile Method - An Example
of Multidisciplinary Applied Method, Econophysics, Sociophysics &
Other Multidisciplinary Sciences Journal (ESMSJ), Vol. 2(2): 36-44.
Svoiu G., (2008), The Scientific Way of Thinking in Statistics, Statistical
Physics and Quantum Mechanics, Romanian Statistical Review, no 11/
2008, S XIII pp. 1- 10.
Svoiu, G., Manea C., and Simoni, S., (2008). The Demographic,
Sociological and Geographical Profile. The Role of the Profile Method
in Contemporary Management, Proceedings of The 14th international
conference the Knowledge-Based Organization, Military Sciences
Security And Defence, Conference, 2008, Sibiu, Nicolae Blcescu
Academy Publishing House, Sibiu, 2008, pages 185-199.
123
The model of W.F. Sharpe and the model of the

global regression utilized for the portfolio selection
Abstract
This method is to be found out in the economic theory as beta
method. This method is largely utilized for studying the risk of equities. In
the frame of this method, the risk is identified through the fluctuation of
their yield. Thus, the higher the fluctuation degree of the portfolio yield is,
its risk is higher. We shall note by Rt the total yield of an equity at a given
moment, and by it the fluctuation of the index from one period to another.
This is an element of the Sharpe regression model.
Key words: regression, portfolio, equity, cloud, risk management
In order to make the choice of the regression function, the points (Rt,
it) for all the periods t are graphically represented, in the Cartesian of axis,
the points (Rt, it) for all the periods t. A points cloud is thus generated
which stands at the basis of forming the dependence between the two
variables.
If these points aligned along a line, then the dependence between the
two variables is a linear one:
Rt = + it+ t
(1)
where:
- the parameter is quantifying the component of the total yield of
the independent equity as against the fluctuation of the index of
the exogenous characteristic from the regression linear model;
- the parameter is fixing the extent to which the alteration by
one per cent of the index of the exogenous characteristic is
generating the increase or the decrease of the equity yield;
124
t is representing the residual variable of the regression linear

model, which quantifies the alleatory fluctuation of the equity
yield under the influence of factors other than the recorded one.
- Through the intermediary of this model, the factors acting on the
equities yield are divided into two classes:
- Macroeconomic factors, acting to a larger or a smaller extent on
all the equities: the inflation rate of the economy, the
performance indicators of the economic environment or financial
markets etc. Out of these factors, the choice goes to that one
depending on which we want to define the regression linear
model;
- Microeconomic factors, acting on the yield of an equity or group
of equities. These factors are quantified in the frame of the
model through the residual variable.
In order to estimate the two parameters of the regression line, the
method of the least squares is resorted to. For defining the estimators, we
have to keep in mind that the residual variable (t) is satisfying the following
hypotheses1:
- each residual has a null mathematical expectation so that E(t) =
0;
- the variables t i t are not correlated since the hypothesis of
non-correlation for the specific risks of the equities, taken two by
two, is admitted;
- the
residual
variables
are
normally
distributed:
t N (0, ), ()t = 1, m .
Following the application of the least squares method, an estimator
of the volatility coefficient () is established through the relation:
cov(Rt , i)
=
= t t
(2)
2
-
where:
- t is the linear coefficient of correlation calculated in order to measure
the linear dependence between the equity yield and the market index:
- t represents the standard deviation calculated in the case of the equity
yield;
1
Nr. 1
125
- is the standard deviation of the financial market index;

Depending on the value of the parameter , the following types of
equities are identified2:
- if < 0, then the equity yield is developing differently as against
the general tendency of the financial market;
- in the situation of (0,1) , then the equity has a low volatility.
In this case, the variation of the equity yield is lower as against
the changes of market index from one period to another. Thus, an
example of equity of low volatility is given by the case when the
market index changes by 8% in the conditions of a variation of
the equity yield of 5% only;
- in case that = 1 the equity is neutral. For a neutral equity the
yield changes to the same extent as the financial market index.
For instance, if the index of the financial market is recording a
fluctuation of 2% then the equity yield will record the same
increase;
- if > 1, then the equities bear a high volatility. The equities of
this class have a high sensitivity to the overall fluctuations of the
financial market. These equities are of an increased interest for
the speculators on the financial markets. In this case, the equity
risk is extremely high. For instance, for a fluctuation of 3% of
the market price, a fluctuation of the yield higher than 3% is
recorded for the equities of this class.
- In the financial practice, the outcomes given by this method are
regarded with certain reluctance since, while the parameter is
calculated on the basis of a data series from the past, the risk
refers to a period in the future.
This method is substantiated on the hypothesis that the yield of
equity is fluctuating as against the global yield of the market where it is
transacted or as against the overall performances of the economic
environment.
Thus, if the dependence is of a linear type, then the equation of
regression is the following:
(3)
Rij = i + iRP j + ij , j = 1, n
where:
2

n contextul crizei globale, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
126
RPj is representing the global yield of the market at a given

moment;
- i, i are the parameters of the regression model being defined by
the equity Ai; The parameter i, the slope of the regression line,
is measuring to what extent the fluctuations recorded by the
financial market are felt at the level of the equity Ai.
For each equity, the residual variable which quantifies the
fluctuations of the yield of the equity Ai under the influence of factors other
than the changes of the global yield of the market is satisfying the following
hypothesis:
- all the alleatory variables ij are variables having the mean equal to zero.
E( ij )= 0 for all the indices j;
- the residual variables interfering in the definition of the regression linear
model bear the property of being homoscedastic. Thus, var( ij ) = 2i for any
index j;
- the residual variables of the regression linear model are linearly
independent. In this situation, cov( ij , ik ) = 0 for any jk. We shall say that
the specific risks of doesnt matter which two equities are non-correlated;
- any one of the residual variables is not correlated with the global yield of
the market: cov( ij , RP) = 0 for any index j.
For the regression model defined for certain equity of the portfolio
there are a series of properties being established. These are useful for the
interpretation of the outcomes
For any and each equity of a portfolio, the following equality is
defined:
E ( Ri ) = i + i E ( RP )
(4)
This property shows that, for any and each equity, the regression line
is passing through the weight centre of the points cloud. This is in fact a
universally valid property for any regression linear model.
- The dispersion of any equity is decomposed in two components,
the one due to the systematic factor, on one hand, and the one
due to the alleatory factors, on the other hand.
By applying the dispersion operator to the terms of the equality
above, we get the following result:
var(Ri ) = i2 = E ( Ri j R i ) 2 = E i ( RP j RP) + ( ij ij )
= i2 2p + 2i
(5)
127
The last term of the above relation is emphasizing the fact that the
total risk of equity is decomposed in two components: the one due to the
systematic risk, on one hand, and the other one due to risk arising from the
alleatory changes, on the other hand.
Under the circumstances, the following equality is written:
2
2 2
(6)
i = i p + 2i
The total risk = the systematic risk + the accidental risk
- The covariance of the yields of two some equities from a
portfolio is a category directly influenced by two factors: the
coefficients of the regression linear models which are defined for
two equities and the dispersion of the total yield of the market.
The covariance of the equities from a portfolio is calculated
through the following relation:
2
kp = k p t2
(7)
In order to get the relation (7) we have to take into account the
formula for the covariance calculation, the form of the regression linear
model and the hypotheses formulated on the residual variable. Under these
conditions the following outcomes are successively obtained:
2
cov( R k , Rp) = kp
= E[( R kj R k )( R pj R p )]
= E[ k p ( RT j RT ) 2 ] + E[ k ( RP j RP)( pj p )] +
E[ p ( kj k )( RP j RP)] + E[( pj p )( kj k )]
= k p 2p + k 2p , RP + p 2k , RP + 2k ,p
According to the hypotheses formulated before, it is resulting that:

2k , RP
= 2p , RP = 2kp = 0
By replacing these results by the covariance formula we get the

relation (7).
For each regression line (4) the parameters i , i are estimated
through the least squares method, taking into account the series of the
equities yields and of the financial market recorded over a passed period.
Further on3, we shall set out the calculation relations existing
between the parameters of the regression model for each equity, defined
depending on the characteristic of the financial market or of the economic
environment and the parameters of the regression models defined for a
Manole, A. et. al. (2013) Conditional Probability and Econometric Models, Romanian
Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013
128
portfolio. Lets consider the equities from the portfolio structure as being
A1,,Am.
- For the average yield of the portfolio characterized through the
vector of the structure f we define the relation:
E ( RT ) = T + T E ( RP)
n
i =1
i =1
where T = f i i , T = f i i .
This equality is deducted without difficulty if considering the
relation (7) and the portfolio structure. Taking into consideration the two
elements, for any equity of the portfolio we obtain:
f i E ( Ri ) = f i i + f i i E ( RP) .
These relations are added for all the equities4. Then, out of the
calculation formula of the arithmetic mean, we get the above relation.
- The total risk of the portfolio, measured by the yield dispersion
over a time horizon is made up of the systemic risk, to which the
alleatory risk which acting at the level of the financial market, is
to be added.
Taking into account the relation for the calculation of the portfolio
risk and the relations (6) and (7) the following results are obtained:
T2 =
f i 2 i2 + 2
i =1
f i f j ij =
i , j =1
i> j
m
i =1
= T2 T2 +
fi ( p2 i2 2i ) +
i =1
f i f j i j T2 +
i =1 j =1
f j i j T2
i , j =1
i> j
m
m
f i 2 2i =
f i i
f i j T2 + j
i =1
i =1
2i
i =1
The portfolio risk is decomposed into the two components according

to the following equality:
T2 = T2 T2 +
2i
(8)
i =1
Total risk =systematic risk + alleatory risk
Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dinc (Nicola), Z. (2014) The Regression
Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor, Revista Romn
de Statistic - Supliment nr. 1/2014
129
In order to establish an optimum portfolio in the situation when a

certain level of the yield is specified, the following optimizing problem has
to be solved:
[min]( 2 )
T
f 1 ,..., f m
f i E ( Ri )
E ( RT ) =
i =1
m
=
fi i
P
i =1
fi = 1
(9)
Through the intermediary of the global regression, the number of the

operations involved by the calculation of the global yield and the total risk is
getting significantly reduced.
References
Artifex, Bucureti
Anghelache, C.; Anghel, M.G. (2014) Modelare economic. Concepte,
teorie i studii ce caz, Editura Economic, Bucureti
Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dinc (Nicola), Z. (2014)
The Regression Model used to Analyze the Correlation between
Production and Labor, Revista Romn de Statistic - Supliment nr.
1/2014
Anghelache, G. (2009) Piaa de capital n context european, Editura
Economic, Bucureti, 2009, ISBN 978-973-709-475-9
Armeanu, D. (2008) Rentabilitatea i riscul portofoliului format din dou
titluri, Revista Romn de Statistic - Supliment Romnia i economia
european, pp. 157-164, ISSN 1018 046x CNCSIS Categoria B+
130
Manole, A. et. al. (2013) Conditional Probability and Econometric

Models, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013
Sharpe, W. (1963) A Simplified Model of Portofolio Analysis,
Management Sciences
Sharpe, W. (1963) Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market
Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, Management Sciences Journal
Vintil, G. (2010) Gestiunea financiar a ntreprinderii, Editura Didactic
i Pedagogic, Bucureti
www.bvb.ro (Bursa de Valori Bucureti)
www.kmarket.ro
131
Developments in Accounting for Environmental

Expenditure
Constantin MINDRICELU, PhD.
National Institute of Statistics
Abstract
In order to build a sustainable economic society with a low
environmental impact, the private sector and the general government must
identify and implement active or voluntary tools capable of influencing the
carrying out of the socio-economic activities as to ensure their
sustainability. Highlighting the economic phenomena and manner of
operation of their in economics is achieved by high synthesis indicators
produced by national accounting.
Responding to these demands, the UN Statistics Division, together
with Eurostat and national statistical offices have initiated a diversification
of statistical tools for creating of the indicators which extend the statistics
beyond the GDP .
An explicit requirement to address environmental economic
accounts at European level is expressed by the European statistical
program developed and monitored by Eurostat. Within this legal framework
program was created to collect data on environmental accounts by
Regulation no. 691 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July
2011 on European environmental economic accounts and updated by
Regulation no. 538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of
April 2014.
In this category of accounts includes environmental expenditure
account (EPEA), focusing, in particular, highlighting what is and how
environmental activities are carried out.
This article presents experimental estimates of environmental
protection expenditure in Romania from 2008 to 2011.
In the first part of the article presents several conceptual issues of
satellite account of environmental expenditures, respective: objectives and
options that responds account of environmental expenditures, classification
of environmental activities and classification of the units engaged in these
activities. It also shows the EPEA model for Romania.
132
In the second part of the article presents several examples of applications

the EPEA at European and national level
Key words: environmental accountancy approach, national
environmental accountancy, satellite accounts of environment protection,
environmental activities, production of the service environment, national
expenditure for environmental protection, financing environmental
expenditures
1. Introduction
Highlighting the economic phenomena and manner of operation of
their in economics is achieved by high synthesis indicators produced by
national accounting. One such indicator is the Gross Domestic Product,
which measures the flow of goods and services in the economy and is often
cited as a measure of economic well-being of our society.
However, many aspects of welfare can not be quantified only with
GDP and although there is a correlation between GDP and the welfare, this
indicator as actual form can not express the real content of welfare, which
besides
the link with the economic growth has multi-link with the
consumption of the state of environment, etc.
It is a reality, the need to improve data and indicators to complement
GDP to express progress in all directions that contribute to welfare (the
healthy, environmental protection, production and consumption patterns,
etc.). Briefly, an accounting framework is required which integrate
environmental issues with economic ones.
This issue was on the bench of the High Level Conference "Beyond
GDP", organized by the European Commission (together with the European
Parliament, the Club of Rome UNECE and OECD), in November 2007.
Conference held some directions for building statistical tools necessary to
achieve integrated indicators "economy-environment" also manifested
strong support from policy makers, experts and civil society to implement
them.
Responding to these demands, the UN Statistics Division, together
with Eurostat and national statistical offices have initiated a diversification
of statistical tools for creating of the indicators which extend the statistics
beyond the GDP . These initiatives can be mentioned:
- extending National Accounts to environmental issues (ex.
environmental -economics accounts, satellite accounts, etc.);
133
- development of indicators (ex. the structural indicators, the

sustainability indicators,
decoupling indicators), reflecting the new
political and technical context;
- construction of composite indicators on the environment, quality
of life and the welfare (ex. the sustainable development index, the human
development index, the ecological footprint );
Currently there are several statistical offices and international
organizations that engender the information in this area, but there is a lack
of integration of statistics showing an interrelation with the development
environment and social status.Within these concerns there are several
proposals to change the system of national accounts (SNA) so as to take
account of environmental factors. The proposals are intended primarily to
adjustment operations, flows and stocks of SNA to include environmental
elements.
The most significant example of these concerns is the system
integrated environmental-economic accounting (SEEA - System of
Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting) developed by the
United Nations Statistics Division.
An explicit requirement to address environmental economic
accounts at European level is expressed by the European statistical program
developed and monitored by Eurostat. Within this legal framework program
was created to collect data on environmental accounts by Regulation no.
691 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 2011 on
European environmental economic accounts and updated by Regulation no.
538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of April 2014.
Regulation establishes a common framework for the collection,
compilation, transmission and evaluation of environmental economic data in
order to create satellite accounts to national accounts, providing
methodology, common standards, definitions, classifications and accounting
rules and statistics to be used to compile these accounts.
Top of Form
According to the regulation in the first stage (2014 - 2016) will be
implemented:
- air emissions accounts;
- account of environmental taxes;
- material flow accounts of the economic scale.
For the second stage, after 2016 is under implementation other three
accounts:
- account for environmental expenditure;
134
- account of
environmental
(environmental industry );
- energy flows account;
goods
and
services
sector
2. Satellite account of environmental expenditures

2.1 Objectives and options that responds account of environmental
expenditures
An important component of integrated accounting "economyenvironment" is the record of transactions concerning environmental
protection economic units in monetary terms. In this category of
transactions include: expenditure for environmental preservation and
environmental protection, environmental taxes, subsidies and rents for the
extraction of natural resources, production of goods and environmental
services.
Many of the transactions and flows of economic activities related to
environmental concern are recorded in the national accounts, but some of
them can not be identified due to the structure of accounts and types of
classifications they use. For the latter constructed environmental economic
accounts as satellite accounts to national accounts. In this category of
accounts includes environmental expenditure account (EPEA), focusing, in
particular, highlighting what is and how environmental activities are carried
out, allowing answers to the following questions:
- what are the costs of activities of environmental protection?
- by whom and how they made this activity?
- who really bears the financial consequences?
All features related to the organization of data in developing EPEA
lead to the idea that such an account can be viewed as a complement to the
central framework of national accounts, following the precepts of the
description of the function of satellite accounts 'environmental protection' in
a manner which takes account of national accounts conventions.
EPEA contains a set of four interrelated tables that describe:
- production of the service environment and the way in which they
are produced (Table B)
- national expenditure for environmental protection: to use
(consumer) services, related products and products adapted to gross capital
formation (investment) and other transactions related to environmental
protection (transfers) (Table A)
- table built on the supply / use of environmental services (Table
B1)
135
financing environmental expenditures (Table C)
2.2 Environmental activities, environmental services and producers

Characterization of environmental actions requires, on the one hand,
highlighting the activities of economic agents, leading to the elimination of
pollution, means that they performed these activities, and the effort made in
this direction, on the other hand used more natural resources efficiently.
Environmental activities are those activities whose primary purpose
is to prevent, reduce and eliminate pollution and other forms of
environmental degradation. Delimitation of environmental activities is
based on the elements of the environment, nature or consequences of
pollution they generate and techniques used.
Combining types of activities can obtain a formal framework for
classification:
a) activities to prevent and combat the impact of production and
consumption systems, which by their nature to limit the adverse
effects of economic activities which, in turn, can be divided as
follows:
- water protection -includes all activities and measures taken to
prevent pollution of surface water, collection and treatment of
wastewater, including monitoring.
- air protection - these specific activities consist of measures fated
at reducing production and reducing pollutant emissions and
concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere.
- waste management - refers to any activity whose purpose is the
collection, transport, recovery, treatment and disposal.
- protection of soil and groundwater - is defined as an activity
involving environmental operation and maintenance of facilities for
the decontamination of polluted soil and groundwater clean.
- reducing noise and vibration - refers to any activity undertaken
for reduce noise and vibration in order to protect people and
buildings.
- protection of biodiversity - include: conservation of fauna and
flora, preventing natural ecological accident (maintaining natural
factors), land protected natural areas, actions to restore landscapes,
protecting and restoring natural sites.
- other activities, such as: research development, general
environmental management, training.
136
b) resource management activities aimed at preserving and

maintaining stocks of natural resources.
In turn these activities include: mineral and energy resource
management , the reduction of extraction of natural resources (including the
recovery, reuse, recycling and substitution of natural resources) and
recovery of natural resources, management of forest resources, management
of aquatic resources, water management , research and development for
natural resource management , other resources management activities (ex.
monitoring, control and surveillance).
Based on the definitions of environmental activities can define
environmental goods and services, which include the specific services as a
result of the activities of environmental protection, related products and
products adapted.
Environmental services are a result of specific environmental
activities, executed as activities: primary, secondary or auxiliary by
operators or units of government. By definition, specific environmental
activities produce only specific services. However, there are economic
activities that can generate production of goods whose use serves the goals
of environmental protection, although not specific activities.
These can be used for final consumption or intermediate or gross
capital formation. Such products are called related products (ex. catalytic
converters for air protection, septic tanks, biological products for septic
tanks to reduce soil pollution, bags, bins, waste containers, enclosures to
reduce noise). Besides the related products are adapted products. These,
though not the result of specific activities through their consumption less
pollution occurs before the equivalent products (ex. Desulfurization fuel,
unleaded gasoline, etc.).
2.3 Classification of the units involved in environmental activities
Establishments producing environmental services are the businesses
that have been engaged in environmental protection as a main activity or as
a secondary activity to the main economic activity other than the
environment. Also, establishments and units are considered performing an
economic activity primary or secondary pollutant and therefore must
conduct an internal work environment necessary to limit the negative effects
of their own economic activities.
Typology of classifications is done by borrowing from national
accounts, as follows:
137
- Government sector: includes all institutional units which produce

non-market services environment, for community or subsidizing
them. Government sector is divided into two subsectors: the central
government comprises state administration bodies and central bodies
whose powers are extended throughout the country and local
government comprising all government units whose powers to local
administrative levels.
- Productive sector ("Company") comprises institutional units that
produce environmental services, grouped as follows: specialized
producers representing those units which have as main activity
object of environmental protection and are included in NACE Rev. 2
divisions: 37 "collection and wastewater treatment", 38 "Collection,
treatment and disposal, 39 "decontamination activities and services"
and non-specialized producers representing those units whose main
activities other than the environment, but are obliged to perform a
secondary or auxiliary activities of environmental protection to
prevent possible harm to the environment. These units can be found
in CAEN Rev.2: 02 "Forestry and logging" , 05-09 "extractive
industry", 10-33 "manufacturing" 35 "production, supply of
electricity and heat , gas, steam and air conditioning ", 36"
abstraction,purification and distribution of water", 41-43"
Construction " and 49-51" Shipping.
- Household sector includes those environmental activities
conducted on their own population is mainly reflected in final
consumption.
2.4.
Construction of the Romanian EPEA
EPEA has a set of four tables describing interrelated:

- production of the service environment, and how they are
produced (Table B)
- national expenditure for environmental protection: to use
(consumer) services, related products and products adapted to gross
capital formation (investment) and other transactions related to
environmental protection (transfers) (Table A)
- table built on the supply / use of environmental services (Table
B1)
- financing environmental expenditures (Table C)
138
Table 1 - The set of EPEA tables

Table A
Uses
(expenditure)
Uses of EP
services by
resident units
Uses of adapted &

connected products
Gross capital
formation plus
land acquisition
Table B
Production
Output of EP
services
Table B1
Supply-use
From output to
uses:
introduction of
imports/ exports
and
taxes/subsidies on
production
Table C
Financing of
expenditure
Financing of:
-uses of EP services
-Gross capital plus land
acquisition
-uses of adapted
&connected products
-specific transfers
Gross capital
formation
plus land
acquisition
Specific transfers
Source :Eurostat 2002

Table B Production of EP services
Table B describes the production of EP services by domestic
producers. Different categories of producers and output may be
distinguished. The two main categories are:
Specialized producers (with corresponding market and nonmarket output),
Non-specialized producers (with corresponding secondary and
ancillary outputs).
For the government we established separate production tables for
each level of government. There is a table for the central level, one for the
local authorities.
Table 2 Production of EP services (Table B)

Producers
Specialized producers
government
NACE
37, 38, 39
Non-specialized
producers
Secondary Ancillary
Total
1.1 Current uses

1.1.1 Intermediate
consumption
139
Producers
Specialized producers
government
NACE
37, 38, 39
Non-specialized
producers
Secondary Ancillary
Total
1.1.2 Compensation of
employees
1.1.3 Consumption of fixed
capital
1.1.4 Other taxes on
production
1.1.5 Less other subsidies on
production
1.1.6 Net operating surplus
1.2. Output (cost of
production)
1.2.1 Non-environmental
output
1.2.2 Environmental
protection output
1.2.2.1 Non-market
1.2.2.2 Market
1.3 Current EP resources
1.3.1 Market output
1.3.2 Current transfers
2. Capital transactions
2.1.Gross Fixed Capital
Formation
2.2. Other capital uses
2.3 Investment grants
received
2.4 Other capital transfers
received
3 Financing by producers
Source: Eurostat 2002
All values in Table B are measured in a manner consistent with the

accounting conventions of national accounting.
Table B1 Supply and uses

Table B1 permits the transition from total supply to uses. The main
purpose of the table is to distribute the supply of market EP services among
uses (how the service is used) by final consumption, intermediate
consumption and capital formation.
140
Table 3: Table B1 Supply and uses of environmental protection

Production
market
production
nonmarket
production
ancillary
Total
1. Uses of resident units

1.1 Intermediate
consumption
1.1.1 of which by
specialized and secondary
producers
1.1.2 of which by nonspecialised producers
1.2 Final consumption
1.3 Gross capital
formation (land
improvement)
2. Exports
Total uses (1+2) = total
supply (3+4+5+6)
3. Output (basic prices)
4. Imports (customs price)
5. Non-deductible VAT
6. Other taxes on products
(if any)
7. Subsidies on products
(if any)
Total supply (3+4+5+6-7)
The final consumption means household and government activities

and intermediate consumption refers to industries; capital formation mainly
relates to the purchase of EP services for land improvement. Table B1 also
describes the origin of the products, i.e. if the products have been
manufactured domestically or if theyve been imported for use.
141
Table A National expenditure for environmental protection

Table A describes the use of environmental services and gross
capital formation for environmental services by categories of users.
The components of national expenditure consist in:
uses of EP services (final consumption, intermediate consumption)

by categories of users
gross capital formation for EP activities
use of connected and adapted products (final consumption,
intermediate consumption)
specific transfers for environmental protection
Table 4: National expenditure by component and by user/beneficiary

(Table A)
Components
Users
Specialized
products
NAC
Govern
E 37,
-ment
38, 39
Other products
nonspecializ.
Secon
-dary
Consumers
Govern
-ment
House
-holds
RWS
1 Uses of EP
services
1.1 Final
consumption
-market
-non-market
1.2 Intermediate
consumption
market
-ancillary
2 Uses of
adapted &
connected
products
2.1 Final
consumption
2.2 Intermediate
consumption
3. Gross Capital
formation for EP
4 Specific
transfers
142
Components
Users
Specialized
products
NAC
Govern
E 37,
-ment
38, 39
Other products
nonspecializ.
Consumers
Secon
-dary
Govern
-ment
House
-holds
RWS
4.1 Subsidies on
production
4.2 Other
specific
transfers
5 Total uses of
resident units
(1+2+3+4)
6 Financed by
the rest of the
world
7 National
expenditure for
EP(5-6)
Much of the data is completed in Table A are from Tables B and B1.
This refers to the use of environmental services and related products and
product uses adapted.
Table C Financing of national expenditure for environmental
protection
Table C describes the financing of national expenditure for
environmental protection for each category of users / beneficiaries. This
table is necessary because environmental financing flows different
execution flows of expenditure by the fact that in addition to funding its
own costs of the users are involved government transfers (investment grants,
subsidies, etc.), financing the rest of the world (eg . European Union) or
specific environmental taxes.
Table 5 Financing of national expenditure for environmental protection
Table C Million lei Current prices
FINANCING
UNITS
Producers
General
Gov.
Consumers
Speci
alized
Non
specializ.
General
Gov.
RWS
Total
House
-holds
General Gov. (GG)

Central
Gov.
(CG)
143
FINANCING
UNITS
Producers
General
Gov.
Consumers
Speci
alized
Non
specializ.
General
Gov.
RWS
Total
House
-holds
Local Gov. (LG)

NPISHs
Corporations
Specialized
producers
Other producers
Households
National
Expenditure
2.5 The indicators EPEA

For statistical analysis - economic defines three categories of
indicators which try to characterize environmental value, structure, time
evolution and relationship to other economic activities:
- indicators that highlight national environmental expenditure
components;
- indicators that describe the operations of producers of
environmental services
- indicators that describe the funding of national expenditure for
environmental protection (resource indicators)
National expenditure for environmental protection
Depending on specific operations executed national expenditure for
environmental protection are structured as follows:
- final consumption of specific environmental services, representing
household final consumption (final consumption of specific services trade)
and collective consumption of government. Final consumption of specific
services of the population is given the services purchased by households in
the market (ex. collecting waste, sewage, etc.). Specific collective
consumption of government represent those services that are not sold on the
market and benefiting all institutional sectors, without being able to
determine the value of each service rendered (ex. cleaning streets, street
waste collection, etc.);
- intermediate consumption of environmental services specific to
productive units;
144
- capital expenditures are government spending and specialized

producers for gross fixed capital formation and the total investments related
to environmental protection to non-specialized producers
- specific transfers consisting of subsidies on the production of
specific services to producers of specialized services, or the compensation
for loss of income due to environmental activities and production subsidies
to non-specialized producers
Production of specific environmental services
Environmental service production is the result of specific activities
carried out under the control and responsibility of a producer who uses
labor, capital, goods and services for the production of specific services
Production of environmental services could calculated by the type of
producer:
- specialized producers whose main activity is a specific activity
- non specialized producers performing a specific activity as a
secondary or ancillary activity to their main activity, unrelated to the
environment
When the work environment is executed as principal or secondary
activity, production can be commercial or noncommercial.
Commercial production is for market or services covered by the sale
and purchase products on the market. Noncommercial production is a
service that is not sold on the market and includes: household services and
collective services (services provided to the community or particular groups
of households free or quasi-free).
In general, when the activity is ancillary the production is noncommercial.
Commercial production is valued at basic prices and noncommercial
production at costs (sum of intermediate consumption, wages and
consumption of fixed capital).
Financing of national expenditure for environmental protection
Environmental activities are characterized by a complex circuit of
funding due to the existence of current and capital transfers, which are
financed from general budgetary resources or specific duties. In this regard,
the unit consumes specific service or environmental investing is not always
funding unit.
For each component of national expenditure is identified unit which
provides funding and funding source, namely:
145
- The value of services funded by the users;

- The value of services funded by the government;
- The value of services provided by the non specialized producer;
- The value of fixed capital expenditure financed by producers
Funding of each component of national expenditure must be
reflected in correspondence with the institutional sectors used in the national
accounts, namely:
a) expenditure funded by government, broken into three categories:
- collective consumption of non-specific services;
- gross capital formation of the government units;
- current and capital transfers (subsidies, investment aid, etc.) made
by government units;
b) expenditure financed by the productive sector, which they can
drill down into three categories:
- the gross capital formation (the part that is not financed through
investment aid and other capital transfers);
- intermediate consumption of ancillary activities of the nonspecialized producers;
- transfers paid (ex. paying fees for environmental protection);
c) expenditure financed by the population also can be broken down
into three categories:
- individual l consumption of environmental services;
- investment (ex. septic tanks, protective windows noise etc.);
- payment of fees for environmental protection.
2.6 The main sources of data
To complete the EPEA tables using data from existing statistical
research (environmental statistics, production statistics, financial statistics)
or the national accounts:
- Statistical survey "Environmental expenditure " which contains a
good deal of information necessary for completing Schedule B
production of environmental services;
- Statistical research on industrial products and services (survey
PRODROM) and business surveys;
- Data from national accounts: production and income generation
in the public administration (Table 11 -S1311 and S1313- ESA
transmission program) and input-output tables (Tables 15 and 16
of the ESA transmission program).
146
3. Application of environmental protection expenditure account

3.1 European level
EPEA is a tool for monitoring environmental policy at the European
level. The main objective is to assess the environmental economic resources
in Member States. For international comparisons of national environmental
expenditure reports from various summary indicators, and outcome of these
reports lead to global or individual decisions to the Commission. Whereas
the GDP is the main indicator of synthesis used in international
comparisons, in the analysis of environmental protection at European level
is calculated the share of environmental expenditure in GDP.
Figure 1 Share of environmental expenditure in the industry in GDP, in
some Member States
(%)
1,20
1,00
0,80
2008
2009
0,60
2010
2011
0,40
0,20
United
Finland
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Poland
Portugal
Hungary
Netherlands
Latvia
Lithuania
Italy
Cyprus
Croatia
Spain
France
Estonia
Czech
Germany
Bulgaria
European
0,00
3.2 National level

EPEA provides a systematic and comprehensive framework for
describing and analyzing, on the one hand flows environmental expenditure
and on the other financial flows in the national economy. In terms of the
expenditures for environmental protection, very useful for policy analysts is
to analyze the various components of expenditure on environmental areas
and changes over time that occur at this level. Key indicators for analysis
are on the one hand, national expenditure made by category of expenditure
147
and by category of producers, the areas of the environment, and secondly

financing of the expenses by donor units on the other financing expenses by
financing units.
Figure 2 Structure of expenditures for environmental protection
according to categories of expenditure from 2008 to 2011
million current prices
30000,00
25000,00
20000,00
15000,00
total cheltuieli
cheltuieli curente
10000,00
cheltuieli de capital
5000,00
0,00
2008
2009
2010
2011
total cheltuieli
22248,04
19271,93
18939,09
26876,92
cheltuieli curente
11217,34
10851,43
12567,20
17677,21
cheltuieli de capital
11030,71
8420,50
6371,89
9199,71
Figure 3 Structure of expenditures for environmental protection

according to the categories of producers from 2008 to 2011
16.000,00
14.000,00
12.000,00
- producatori specializati
10.000,00
- productori nespecializai
8.000,00
- administraia public
6.000,00
- gospodrii
4.000,00
2.000,00
0,00
2008
2009
2010
2011
- producatori
specializati
1.716,52
1.046,72
980,13
733,11
- productori
nespecializai
8761,47
7821,93
4995,61
6843,11
- administraia 4.472,63
public
3.230,02
4.137,75
5444,48
6.441,58
6.201,79
8.054,98
13856,14
- gospodrii
148
Figure 4 Expenditures for environmental protection environmental

areas in 2011
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Total
aer
apa
deseuri
sol
zgomot
biodiv
alte
domenii
18939,09
1558,64
2887,74
10610,32
572,73
241,11
43,33
3025,22
To analyze the environmental efforts made at the national level in

line with economic growth efforts can make a link between data protection
expenditure and economic data synthesis in the national economy. This link
is possible because EPEA indicators are built on the same principles of
national accounts indicators so that they can be computed as a statistical
indicator of intensity ratio between the two categories. These indices are
calculated both at national and representative institutional sectors, namely:
government, corporations, households
Figure 5 Share of expenditures for environmental protection in GDP
(%)
6
2009
2010
0
2008
2011
149
Figure 6 Environmental investments in Public Administration from

2008 to 2011
40.000,00
35.000,00
milioane lei
30.000,00
25.000,00
investitii in adm.publica
20.000,00
investitii de mediu in
adm.publica
15.000,00
10.000,00
5.000,00
0,00
2008
2009
2010
2011
33.987,50 29.808,10 29.728,00 30.516,80
investitii in
adm.publica
investitii de mediu in
adm.publica
2.682,30
1.474,20
2514,70
3.421,10
Figure 7 Investment environment in the private sector

80000
70000
60000
50000
investitii in sectorul privat
40000
investitii de mediu in sectorul

privat
30000
20000
10000
0
150
2008
2009
2010
investitii in sectorul
privat
72025,4
53336,3
46660,0
investitii de mediu
in sectorul privat
8.424,96
7.654,85
3.926,10
Figure 8 Share of final consumption for environmental services in final

consumption of households
(%)
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2008
2009
2010
Figure 9 Share collective consumption for environmental services in all

government collective consumption
(%)
7
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
151
References
Mndricelu, C. (2001) Statistical analysis - economic environment, PhD
Thesis, ASE Bucharest
Eurostat (2000) Classification of Environmental Protection Activities
(CEPA)
Eurostat (2002) SERIEE Environnemental Protection Expenditure
Accounts Compilation Guide, Luxemburg
Eurostat(2002). Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts
Results of pilot applications
Eurostat ( 2007) Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG)
EU-Regulation No 691/2011 of the European Parliament and of the
Council on European environmental economic accounts.
EU-Regulation No 538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the
Council amending Regulation No 691/2011 of the European
Parliament and of the Council on European environmental economic
accounts
Eurostat (2002) Manual on Sources and Methods for the compilation of
ESA95 Financial Accounts, Luxembourg: Office for Official
Publications of the European Communities,
NIS Romania (2013) Grant Agreement in the field of Environmental
Accounts, Final technical implementation report
152
Some Considerations on Agricultural Exploitations

Amelia DIACONU, PhD Student
Abstract
This article is aimed at presenting some of the concepts and
indicators currently used in the analysis of agricultural exploitations, of
their social and economic role and importance at world and European
level. The EU enlargement process comprised important structural
transformations in the agriculture of the former socialist countries and their
passage to the market economy. In direct connection with these
transformations the long-disputed issue regarding the superiority of the
large-scale or small-scale farming was brought back into discussion.
Key words: agriculture, exploitation, structure, regulations,
ideologies
1. Introduction
Along the history, different ideologies pleaded for different types of
agricultural exploitations, because the practice must take into account not
only the economic criteria, but also the social and environmental one, not
only the private economic interest, but also the national economic interest,
the abundance or the scarcity of the natural production factor, the population
number, traditions etc.
Mercantilists were the partisans of small-scale farming as they
considered it capable of maximum intensity1.
Physiocrats, a part of the English classicists and Marxists, support
the superiority of large-scale farming as being the only one capable of
obtaining an economic surplus for the existence of the society.
Moderate economists - promoters of the in-between situation consider middle-scale exploitations are recommended in a healthy state and
the extremes - consisting in the very large-scale exploitations, as well as in
the very small-scale exploitations - should only be an exception, because
1
Diaconu, Amelia, Diaconu, Aurel (2012) Sustainable Development Approach for Semisubsistence Agriculture in the European Union, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement,
Issue 2/2012
153
each agricultural exploitation category that exists at a certain point in the

society has its pluses and minuses
... The rural issue or, more
precisely, the peasantry issue was and continues to be one of the country's
most important economic, social, political, cultural and moral issues. In the
century we left behind not so long ago, the rural environment, farming and
farmers surpassed three large periods, marked by two major ruptures in
relation to the political system and the economic and social organization.
The important structural changes that were in fact essential mutations that
changed every time at 180 degrees the political, legal and economic
concepts, left profound marks, affecting the state of the village, of
agriculture and of our peasant...
Firstly, we need to point out the features of the agricultural
exploitations' market participation found in the EC Regulation no.
1698/2005 on the support for rural development granted from the European
Agricultural Fund for Rural Development for semi-subsistence farming
defined as "agricultural exploitations of which production is mainly destined
to one's own consumption and that also trade a part of its own production.
It must be mentioned that, given the structural heterogeneity of
agricultural exploitations in the EU, the definition adopted through the EC
Regulation no. 1698/2005 deliberately avoids the establishment of
consumption and sales thresholds, so that each member state be able to
adopt its own eligibility criteria within the rural development programs
(RDP) in order to support semi-subsistence farming that follow to be
included in restructuring processes with financing from the European
Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)
The size thresholds in each member state is founded, in great part, on
the economic size of agricultural exploitations. The agricultural
exploitations' economic size thresholds are largely applied within statistical
and political purposes throughout the EU and they are expressed in
European Size Units (ESU) that describe the economic size of farms (1 ESU
= 1,200 euro from the gross standard margin - GSM).
Agricultural exploitations enter within 6 economic size classes, as
follows: class 1: 0 - < 4 ESU; class 2: 4 - < 8 ESU; class 3: 8 - < 16 ESU;
class 4: 16 - < 40 ESU; class 5: 40 - < 100 ESU; class 6: >= 100 ESU.
A particular case is represented by the poverty threshold, which
refers to the minimum level of the income considered necessary in order to
reach an adequate standard of living in a certain Member State. In general,
the poverty threshold refers to a limit of 60% from the equivalent average
154
income in each member state and it is also the poverty threshold adopted by
Eurostat in order to determine the poverty "risk.
Based on the agricultural exploitations' Used Agricultural Area, they
can be classified in five size classes, as follows: class 0 which includes
agricultural exploitations with one UAA comprised between 0-9 hectares;
class 1 includes exploitations with 10-24 hectares; class 2 includes
exploitations with 25-50 hectares; class 3 includes exploitations with 51100 hectares; class 4 includes exploitations with over 100 hectares.
The Common Agricultural Policy's entire evolution targeted farms
restructuring and agricultural production improvement through the use
technical progress in agriculture.
From one stage to another, it focused on investment into production
facilities, both at the level of individual farms, as well as at the level of
processing and sales enterprises. The main aims were the following:
increasing the agriculture productivity, market stabilization, ensuring even
incomes for farmers, as well as food safety, reasonable prices for
consumers2.
Throughout the economic boom the main mechanisms for achieving
the CAP aims were as follows: the internal guaranteed pricing system for
market support; protection of imports; subsidies for exports; and the results
did not fail to appear - small-sized farms transformation; increase of the
member states' self-supply degree with a broader range of agricultural
products; the older farmers, with low possibilities of adjusting to the market,
had the possibility to retire; the increase on the international market of the
agricultural products' importance (one third of the international trade);
upgrade and reorganization, based on productivity criteria, of the
subsistence farms in parallel with the substantial cut in their number etc.
It should be reminded that in 2003 (according to the Agenda 2000)
the cut-off of the support granted for production took place.
CAP reformation, initiated in 2005, targeted: the assurance of a
minimum income for supporting producers (under the conditions of
observing some compulsory quality standards) to produce in consistency
with the market requirements. Likewise, three main fields of interest were
identified: agriculture restructuring; land and environment management;
expansion of rural development by diversification.
Issue 2/2012
155
The main features of the European Union farms were analysed from
the viewpoint of the main performance indicators of agricultural
exploitations
Used Agricultural Area - Out of the total EU area in 2007 of 4.3
million km2, the used agricultural area (UAA) amounts to 40.1%,
respectively 1.74 million km 2. There are disparities between the member
states in relation to the used agricultural area (UAA). Thus, Italy, Romania,
Poland, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France register each an UAA
percentage from the national territory comprised between 7.4 and 16%. At
the same time, in 15 member states (Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Slovenia,
Estonia, Belgium, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Finland, Lithuania,
Denmark, Bulgaria, Sweden, Austria) the UAA percentage from the
national territory is below 2% in each member state.
The highest weights of cultivable lands in the UAA and comprised
within 70.1-98% are mainly found in the following member states: Finland
(98.0%); Denmark (92.0%); Bulgaria (87.3%); Sweden (84.3%); Hungary
(84.0%); Malta (77.6%); Poland (76.0%); Cyprus (73.9%); the Czech Rep.
(73.1%); Germany (70.2%); Slovakia (70.1%). At the same time, the lowest
weights of cultivable lands in the UAA (between 24.3-37.3%) are in: Ireland
(24.3%); Portugal (31.0%); Slovenia (35.4%); Great Britain (37.3%).
Romania, with 63.2% cultivable lands from the UAA is found close
to the EU-27 average (with 2.7 pp more).
Pastures and meadows hold the highest weights in the UAA
between 36.1-75.7% - they are found in: Ireland (75.7%); Great Britain
(62.5%); Slovenia (58.9%); Austria (54.3%); Luxembourg (52.2%);
Portugal (51.3%); the following countries have pastures below 10% from
the UAA: Cyprus (1.3%); Finland (1.7%); Denmark (7.6%); Bulgaria
(9.2%). We mention than this land category is absent in Malta.
Romania, with 33.0% pastures from the UAA is found close to the
EU-27 average (with 0.1 pp more).
According to the data of the last ASA in 2007, the number of
agricultural exploitations in the EU-27 amounted to 13.700 thousand
entities; the largest number of agricultural exploitations are found in Italy
(12.3% of the total EU-27 number), Poland (17.5%) and in Romania
(28.7%), while in Luxembourg, Malta and Estonia they hold below 0.2%
each.
On the date of the last ASA (2007) it was noted with respect to the
situation of ASA 2003 that the number of agricultural exploitations dropped
by 8.8%. Thus, in 21 member states the number of agricultural exploitations
156
went down with values comprised between 37.8% (Denmark) and 2.6%
(Slovakia); in Romania, throughout the indicated period, the number of
agricultural exploitations dropped by 4.6%.
The percentage from the total number of agricultural exploitations
that hold irrigated lands in 2007 was comprised between 15.0% (Bulgaria)
and 78.5% (Cyprus). Romania held only 2.7%.
In 2007, as compared to 2003, the percentage of agricultural
exploitations that held irrigated lands out of the total number grew by 4.0%
(France) to 57.1% (Poland). Over the mentioned period, the analysed
indicator dropped by 53.4%.
The cattle found in the EU-27 agricultural exploitations amounts to
89.5 million head; most cattle are found in Great Britain (10.3 million head),
Germany (12.7 million head) and in France (19.4 million head) these
member states hold jointly 47.3% of the effectives. Romania, with 2.7
million head (in 2007) holds only 3.1% of the total cattle effective in the
EU-27.
During 2003-2007 the cattle effectives found in the EU-27
agricultural exploitations registered a drop by 2.8%. In Romania they
dropped by -4.8%.
In the EU-27, the number of cattle grew on average
by 7 head per agricultural exploitations in 2007; Romania registered on
average a growth of 1 cattle head per agricultural exploitation, thus being at
the same level with Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria and Cyprus.
The size of agricultural exploitations in the European Union - In
general, the farms of 20-50 ha and over in the EU hold the highest economic
importance and they concentrate almost 60% of the agricultural area.
Although, by countries we observe a certain differentiation (in Greece, for
example, the farms of up to 10 ha hold over 57 % of the agricultural area,
while in France, the same size category concentrates only 4.3 % of the area).
In relation to the category farms over 20 ha, Greece concentrates
23% of the area, and France - 86.5 %. The growth in size for agricultural
exploitations was also determined with time by the labour productivity's
evolution at national level by branches of activity.
Another aspect that characterizes the West-European agriculture3 is
the fact that larger exploitations were established on the basis of leasehold.
Thus, in Germany and France 40 - 50% of the agricultural land comes from
leaseholding.
3
Issue 2/2012
157
The medium size's tendency to grow is naturally accompanied by

another tendency to reduce the total number of agricultural exploitations,
based on the extinction of a significant number of small-scale agricultural
exploitations every year, not being viable from an economic viewpoint. This
process was favoured by the force of the western economy that was able to
offer jobs and income sources from other non-agricultural branches to the
farmers that left agriculture.
The great diversity of agricultural structures met in the EU is given
by the fact that in each member state the minimum economic size thresholds
for agricultural exploitations are distinct. For instance, for the year 2004, the
economic size threshold varied from 1 ESU (Cyprus) and 16 ESU (Belgium,
the Netherlands and Great Britain).
Characteristics of agricultural exploitations from the economic size
viewpoint - Agricultural exploitations in the Central and Eastern European
countries, as area is concerned, exceed almost three times the Western
European ones, but they register poor results in relation to the economic
size, with an ESU average size per region of nearly two times smaller, being
an indicator that uses less intensively the land into possession.
Labour force in agricultural exploitations - the society's general
development level affects in one way or another labour force consumption
in agriculture, both quantitatively as well as qualitatively. At the EU-27
level, labour force in agricultural exploitations, according to ASA, 2007, is
the equivalent of 11,963 thousand AWU (annual work unit). The highest
labour force consumption was registered in: Italy (11.14% from total
recorded AWU); Romania (18.86%); Poland (19.35%).
In the EU-27, the permanent labour force in agriculture, represented
on average 92% of the total recorded AWU (10,795 thousand AWU),
oscillating between 81.6-89.8% (Spain 81.6%; Greece-85.9%; France
89.3%; Italy -89.8%) and 99-100% (Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta).
On average, per EU-27 the women labour force in agriculture held
80% of the total recorded AWU. The highest percentage of women that
work in agriculture (41-50%) were recorded in: Austria, Portugal and
Slovenia each member state with 41%. A relatively low woman labour
force in agriculture (14-25% out of the total) is recorded in Malta (14%),
Spain (20%), Ireland (21%), Denmark and Great Britain (each state with
23%), France (25%). In Romania, this indicator was 42%.
The semi-subsistence agricultural exploitations' number is one of the
main performance indicators for the subsistence and semi-subsistence
agricultural exploitations in the EU.
158
In the case of Romania, the number of agricultural exploitations that

achieve at least 1 ESU dropped by over 25%, respectively by 28.5%, in
2007 as compared to 2003; In a similar situation were the following
countries: Portugal (-30.6%) and Bulgaria (-25.1%).
The characterisation of subsistence exploitations according to the
market participation criteria probably represents another dimension based
on which a farm typology can be generated in the case of subsistence
production.
Conclusions
Romania's europenization process also included important structural
transformations in agriculture through privatisation and passage to the
market economy. In direct connection with these radical transformations
and the long-disputed issue regarding the superiority of the large-scale or
small-scale farming was brought back into discussion in the Romanian
ideological environment. In fact, this is a subject intensely debated and
analysed by the agricultural economists throughout the entire world given
the complex economic, social, political, environmental, tradition, etc.
impact that various types of agricultural exploitations have upon the society,
in general.
Europenization, i.e. a stronger connection to the European
environment also involved the adoption of certain concepts and indicators
currently used in the analysis of agricultural exploitations at world and
European level, of their social and economic role and importance, that were
selected and concisely presented in the paper. Thus, this article points out
the main features of agricultural exploitations in the European Union, with
some reference to their main performance indicators, such as: Used
Agricultural Area; the Structure of Agricultural Surface Usage; Number of
agricultural exploitations; Number of agricultural exploitations with
irrigated lands; Number of cattle found in agricultural exploitations; size of
agricultural exploitations in the European Union by size classes; general
characteristics of the agricultural exploitations' area, by size classes,
agricultural exploitations' labour force etc.
References
Balmann, A. On the Dynamics of Structural Change in Agriculture, Paper
presented at the 96-th EAAE Seminar held in Taenikon, Switzerland, 1011.01.2006. Power point presentation
159
Cimpoie, D. Evaluarea consolidrii exploataiilor agricole prin prisma

dimensiunii economice, n tiina agricol, nr. 2/2011. 021225 1857 0003.
Davidova, Sofia, Semisubsistence farming: a remnant from the past or a
provider
of
public
goods
and
a
cultural
asset?,
http://www.nuigalway.ie/cisc/documents/cisc_seminar_dr_sophia_david
ova.pdf
Drghici, M., Catan, Dan Considerente privind dimensiunea economica a
exploatatiilor agricole din Romania, Institutul de Cercetare pentru
Economia Agriculturii i Dezvoltare Rural din cadrul A.S.A.S., 2010
Zamfir, Ctlin Ce fel de tranziie vrem? Analiza critic a tranziiei II,
Raportul social al ICCV nr. 5, Bucureti, 2012
160
Aspects Concerning the Verification of the

Residual Normality and the Prediction of the
Regression Model
Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhD.
Ec. Emilia STANCIU
Abstract
The tests used for verifying certain hypotheses formulated on the
parameters of the regression model as well as for defining the intervals of
confidence for these ones and elaborating predictions have as starting point
the verification of the hypothesis concerning the normal distribution of the
residual.
Key words: residual, prediction, trimming, coefficient, distribution
The relations applied for testing the characteristics of the residual
distribution are defined by taking into account the asymmetry and the
trimming of the normal distribution.
For an alleatory variable with a normal distribution, the asymmetry
coefficient is zero while the trimming one is three.
Lets
consider
the
regression
linear
model
y i = b + axi + i , i = 1,..., n , and the series of the estimated residual (ei )i =1,n ,
cu e = y (b + ax ) . For the residual series there are two indicators to
i
define, used by the descriptive statistics in order to analyze the asymmetry

and the trimming of a distribution series:
- asymmetry coefficient
161
1 =
-
2 =
32
23
trimming coefficient
4
2
In order to define the statistical tests used for the verification of the
residual distribution according to a normal distribution, the following
property of the symmetry and trimming coefficients:
Consider the alleatory variable X N ( m, x2 ) . The asymmetry and
trimming coefficients calculated for a series of data with n values, which is
defined for this variable, are meeting the following properties:
6
,
11 / 2 N 0,
24
2 N 3,
In order to verify the null hypothesis of the normal distribution of

the residual (ei )i =1,n we have to resort to one of the tests:
- tests for verifying the asymmetry and trimming for the
distribution of the estimated residual;
- tests for verifying the asymmetry and the test Jarque Bera.
On the ground of the estimated series it is verified whether this
distribution is normally divided. By using this series, the two coefficients
are estimated, as 11/ 2 , respectively 2 .
Under the null hypothesis H0: 1 = 0, it is resulting:
1
/
2
S = 1 N (0,1) .
6
n
Similarly, if defining the null hypothesis on the second coefficient,
as H0:2=3, then:
3
K= 2
N (0,1)
24
n
162
The null hypothesis according to which the residual is uniformly

distributed is accepted provided the following inequities are simultaneously
met:
S < t and K < t ,
1
where t
is the value of the distribution quartile N(0,1)for the significance

2
threshold .
The test Jarque Bera allows the simultaneous verification of the
properties of asymmetry and trimming of the residuals series.
The test is defined as against the two coefficients 11 / 2 and 2 ,
taking into consideration the distribution of their estimators, resulting:
2
1/ 2
1 2 3
J B=
+
22 .
6 24
n n
Or, as the equivalent form:
2
n
n
J B = 1 +
2 3
6
24
For significance threshold the null hypothesis of the normal distribution of
the residual variable is rejected if the inequality below is met:
J B > 22;1 .
Prediction through the regression model

On the basis of the data series ( xi , y i )i =1,n the parameters of the
regression line have been estimated. Thus we get the series of the estimated
values for the endogenous variable through the relation:
y i = b + axi , i = 1, n
Within the prediction process, using the regression linear model,
there is the question mark on how to solve the following two issues:
- accomplishing predictions either punctually or through intervals
of confidence. For accomplishing the first prediction the punctual
method is applied while for the second situation, the prediction is
made through an interval of confidence;
- verifying the framing of certain points within the tendency
postulated by a regression model. If there are named values for
163
the two characteristics of the regression model, under the form of the
pair (x0,y0), the issue to settle consists of setting out whether they
line up with the trend defined by the regression model. We shall
verify if he value of the endogenous characteristic is taking part with
the interval of prediction being defined for a level of the exogenous
characteristic and a threshold of significance.
We shall make punctual or through an interval of confidence
predictions for a value of the endogenous characteristic y0 or for its mean,
E(y0 ). For each and every case there are various calculation formulas being
established for the punctual prediction and the prediction through an interval
of confidence.
For the regression linear model, the real value of the endogenous
characteristic is specified through the relation:
y 0 = b + ax0 + 0
(1)
where 0 is the accomplishment of a normal distribution of mean zero and
dispersion equal to one.
The punctual value estimated through the regression linear model is
defined by the relation:
y 0 = b + ax0
As a rule, this value is utilized for defining an interval of confidence.
In order to define the interval of confidence, in the conditions that a level of
the significance threshold is specified, we must take into consideration the
fact that, by utilizing the regression linear model for defining the punctual
prediction, a prediction error is made, equalling to:
e0 = y0 y 0 = (b b) + (a a ) x0 + 0
(2)
Considering the properties of the two estimators of the regression
line estimators, we shall submit below the main properties of the prediction
error.
The mean of the prediction error equals to zero. We define the
equality:
E(e0)=0
The above result is obvious if applying the mean operator to the
terms of the equality (2), taking into account the properties of the two
estimators and the hypothesis formulated on the residual variable.
The dispersion of the prediction error made in the case when the
purpose is to make a prediction for the value of the endogenous
characteristic y0 is:
164
x
x
1
0
var(e0 ) = 2 1 + +
(3)
2
n
x
x
i i
In order to obtain the expression of the variance of the prediction

error, the dispersion of the terms of the equality (2) is applied. The
following outcomes are obtained:
var (e0 ) = E (e02 ) = var(b) + x02 var(a ) + var(e0 ) + 2 x0 cov(a , b)
1 x2
2x x
= 2
+ x02 +
0
n S xx
S xx
S xx
x
x
1
0
= 2 1 + +
2
n xi x
i
For building up an interval of prediction for the value of the

endogenous variable, in the conditions of a fixed level of the exogenous
characteristic, the following two results are to be taken into consideration:
y 0 y 0
N (0,1)
(4)
y 0 y 0
t n 2
p
We noted by p the estimator of the average standard deviation of
the prediction error made for the value y0. This is calculated through the
following relation:
1
1+ +
n
(x x )
(x x )
2
(5)
If a certain significance threshold is fixed, then we shall define the

interval of prediction for y0:
y t / 2 1 +
1
x0 x
1
x0 x
+
< y0 < y + t / 2 1 + +
n xi x 2
n xi x 2
i
(6)
165
For a stable significance threshold, the size of the prediction interval

is function of the following measurements:
- the value of the exogenous for which the value of the
endogenous characteristic is predicted. This factor is quantified
through the term x0 x ;

- the number of terms of the series which have been used for
estimating the parameters of the regression linear model. The
prediction error is proportionally inverse to n;
- the quality of the regression model being quantified through the
dispersion of the residual variable;
- the value of the significance threshold.
In the situation where a prediction on the average values E(y0) is
made, under the conditions of an established values for the exogenous
characteristic, the dispersion of the prediction error is:
x0 x
1
var(e0 ) = 2 +
(7)
2
n xi x
i
For proving the last relation it must be considered that the prediction
error made in this case is:
e0 = E ( y 0 ) y 0
= (b b) + (a a ) x0 + 0
By applying the mean operator to the terms of the equality above, we
get the formula (7).
References
Andrei, T., Bourbonais, R. (2008) - Econometrie, Editura Economic,
Bucureti
Andrei, T., Stancu, S., Iacob A.I., Tusa, E., - Introducere n econometrie
utiliznd Eviews, Editura Economic, Bucureti
Anghelache, C. i alii (2012) Elemente de econometrie teoretic i
aplicat, Editura Artifex, Bucureti
Anghelache, C., Cruceru, D., Marinescu, R.T. (2011) - Modele
econometrice utilizate n analiza performanelor financiare, Scientific
Research Themes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary
Octav Onicescu, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 2/2011, pp. 94100
166
Dougherty, C. (2008) Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition,

Oxford University Press
Hendry, D.F. (2002) Applied econometrics without sinning, Journal of
Economic Surveys, 16
Voineagu, V., ian, E. i colectiv (2007) Teorie i practic
econometric, Editura Meteor Press
167
Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer

Behavior
Assoc. Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD.
Master Student Cristian STOICIU
Student Denisa OPREA
Abstract
On the market, the consumer is defined as the main element, element
of reference, as the market is unable to take independent existence without
it. Modern marketing concept assumes that all economic activity should be
directed towards meeting the requirements of actual and potential
consumers with maximum efficiency. Basically the whole complex of
marketing activities is designed to ensure goods and services that
consumers require, appropriate merchandise, in the right quantities at the
right price, at the right place, at the right time.
Key words: marketing, consumer, behavior, study, reference,
economics, market, model, factors, system.
Study results shows that there are various application for the
behavior of consumers. Segmenting markets today are characterized by a
multitude of theoretical approaches, and practical approaches targeting
various products and services.
Basically, even if market segmentation and types have the same
objective, their starting point is quite different: the segmentation of
fragments from their whole markets generate typology classifications based
on individual cases, consumers and businesses.
In terms of market segmentation and target segments, there is a wide
variety of approaches, characterized by two key elements: the variables and
criteria for segmentation and segmentation model or models.
Many researchers have proposed a general set of variables for
quantification and segmentation, geographical, demographic, economic and
behavioral, that can be used in any market. From this point of view,
although there are a lot of approaches, marketing science models have not
generalized in delivering projects for more markets.
168
Other authors have proposed criteria and analytical models that have
worked in some markets, but should be tested in other markets because it
contains generalized valences.
For market segmentation based on lifestyle, a number of researchers
have used seven demographic variables: social class, sex, age, last school
graduated, position in the family, marital status and children in the family,
to which sixty-six lifestyle variables have been attached, resulting in seven
segments, described with clarity. Unfortunately, the model is useful
approach, but can not be generalized as lifestyle variables are not the same
in every area and in every market.
Applying the model based on the theory of finite distribution
structure, they conducted a market segmentation for durable goods, using
seven core variables: family income, number of adults in the family, the
presence of children in the family under 18 years of presence in the family
children under six years, if the wife works, the length of employment and
current residence, if the family uses a credit card. Although, by this method,
there were identified segments of families that were studied as consumer
concern replacement, this can not be generalized as it keeps strictly to
market customization. Based on responses to price and promotion
conducted to a market segmentation for yogurt, groups of families identified
by decisions on the brand, purchase frequency and quantity. This approach
allowed the sales to be broken by choosing brand purchase behavior,
frequency of purchase and buyer calitation.
Of those shown, it follows that market segmentation can be done by
various categories of consumers or associated features of products and
services.
Any analysis and the study of consumer behavior must integrate, in
one way or another, the specific marketing research because the marketing
decisions studies based on consumer behavior takes consistency.
Therefore, it is considered that the results of studying consumer
behavior is integrated into marketing decisions, if it complies with the
following triad: specific marketing problem formulation and design of
appropriate studies consumer behavior, the actual implementation of
research study for consumer behavior and the development of marketing
tools to be implemented in market practice.
Formulating marketing problem is a result of marketing policies,
the marketing strategy, the research tools offered by martketing,
specifying the necessary information and data required to
169
substantiate the decision obtained by studying consumer

behavior etc.
Marketing research and study of consumer behavior are closely
related to how the categories relate to economic efficiency and
effectiveness. The concept of efficiency among these studies is expressed
synthetically by profit, the concept of efficiency refers to the achievement of
objectives (goals) marketing without necessarily making reference to the
efforts, often representing measure actual sales effectiveness.
Formulation of the problem is dependent on the achievements of
marketing research. This should be consistent with the
objectives, defining the problem that needs to be solved. It must
be such that the conduct and performance of research to be
impeccably designed, meaning that if any correction is applied,
it does not require changes likely to alter the substance of the
problem of marketing. As such, it requires thorough grounding
in relation to: the number of individual interviews; scale group
discussions; sample size; length of the questionnaire; scale
processing; location of expansion to be achieved etc.
The pinnacle of genealogical dimension associated research is
given by the effective integration of the results of the study of
consumer behavior in marketing decisions.
Like any decision related to solve a marketing problem, it has the
following components: possible strategies, market variables, market
variables prediction, the consequences of marketing and decision criteria.
Marketing strategies have alternative constructions, the combination
of controllable factors in terms of the market, which can be known by way
of studies offered consumer behavior.
Uncontrollable market variables cover the market, but are involved
in different areas of management decision.
Market variables prediction is made, usually in the form of
probabilities of occurrence, as evidenced both as punctual as well as the
probable ranges can enter variables in question. To assess probabilities,
there are market variables that assumes system stability, which is a key
concept for all decisions of the management team of the company.
Consequences of marketing actions express the results that are
expected when applying a specific marketing action when there is a certain
ambience.
Decision criterion covers the principle of selecting a choice,
according to the amount of information available to the decision maker to
170
get the best solution. As in many other fields, developing marketing

decisions can be made in conditions: certainty, risk, uncertainty total, partial
uncertainty, conflict, etc.
The risk arises in situations where normal course of development is
known, which is based on some regularity, but that does not exclude chance,
which may occur with a certain probability, and the state that express
uncertainty on given decision is not a known law acting, so it wold be
possible to determine a probability for possible events.
Marketing decisions with certainty assume that every possible
marketing action will generate a particular result, so the strategy that
produces the best result is to be selected. In these cases, the marketing
decision is simple. The difficulty posed by such a decision lies in the large
number of strategies.
Marketing decisions under risk imply a formal analysis of decision
alternatives and their consequences; while the effects of decisions are not
known for sure, the best action is the one that maximizes the anticipations.
The early results of a random process (random variables) form the
weighted value of all variable values, each of which is weighted with its
own probability of occurrence. In general, in a decision-making situation,
the risk is perceived as a psychological reality, but for various marketing
activities risk can be quantified and measured by probabilities; so if the
chance of success is 0.8 then the risk is 0.2.
The process by which policy makers that integrates results of
studying consumer behavior in leading companies processes perceive the
risk as extremely complex and involves both the probability of a
combination of marketing actions and market variables (risk increases with
increasing negative effects) and preferences for certain outcomes, and as
man increases the likelihood of extreme outcomes (positive or negative) the
risk is perceived to be higher. In marketing practice, for risk measurement,
there is calculated the mathematical expectation of financial results and
losses.
Marketing decisions in terms of total ignorance assumes that
alternatives are decisions who lead to consequences with unknown
probabilities. Most cases are attached to new products.
In marketing research, uncertainty refers to the probability of the
consequences of alternative actions. If uncertainty is seen as lack of
information, the whole issue should be considered in such cases uncertainty,
it occurs in all phases of the decision, from problem definition of marketing.
171
The marketing decisions taken in terms of total ignorance criteria

decision-maker's attitude may be:
1 Maximin (Abraham Wald) and pessimistic conservative principle, because
the market minimize results and the decision maker will choose the
maximum possible.
2 Maximax (Hurwicz) completely optimistic principle; recommended action
to produce maximum results.
3 Coefficient optimist (Hurwicz) optimistic or pessimistic criterion; to give
by considering the first two criteria, the decision maker takes into account
both the highest and lowest results, weighting their ignorance with a
constant related to the attitude of the decision maker.
4 Minimax (Savage): the principle of regret; decision maker minimizes the
regret of having selected an action that is most appropriate.
5 Laplace (principle of sufficient reason): the principle that transforms
uncertainty risk by assigning equal probability to all market variables.
Marketing decisions in conditions of partial ignorance are very
common in marketing, as this area is rarely characterized by total ignorance.
In almost all situations, decision makers have more information, but they
must always be completed, because the decision must have a scientific
basis.
Using their experience with integrating new information finds a
large illustration among these decisions, by using the analysis buyesiene.
Decisions under conditions of conflict are taken from one or more
competitors real, apart from the hypothetical market conditions and
decisions for general situations of risk and uncertainty. Therefore, these
decisions are delimited according to the number of competitors and the
degree of opposition to their interests, the most common variant of this kind
of decision the game with two competing and sum zero. What a player wins,
the other loses, as illustrated by the matrix representation of decision
outcomes or rewards.
In all cases, integrating the results of studying the behavior
consumer marketing decisions is shown to be based on systemic vision
problem formulation of marketing, conducting research and proper
settlement of the situation in which the decision-makers.
172
References
Balaure, V. (coordonator ), Adscliei, V., Blan, C., Boboc, t., Ctoiu I.,
Olteanu, V., Pop, N. Al., Teodorescu, N. (2008) Marketing, Editura
Uranus, Bucureti
Ctoiu, I., Teodorescu, N. (2008) Comportamentul consumatorului,
Editura Uranus, Bucureti
Koetler, Ph. (2006) Managementul marketingului, Editura Teora,
Bucureti
Mecu, Gh. (coordinator, 2002) Studiul comportamentului consumatorului
n economia de pia contemporan, Editura Genicod
tefnescu, V., Neagu, V., Teodorescu, N. (1978) Studierea direct a
cererii de marfuri a populaiei n profil microteritorial, prin efectuarea
de sondaje statistice n trguri sau expoziii, Revista Comerul Modern,
nr. 6, 1978.
Udrescu, M. (2008) Studiul comportamentului consumatorului, Editura
Artifex, Bucureti
173
Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and

Sport Culture in Romania
Assistant teacher Cristian GHENA, PhD Student
Abstract
The issue of recognition of a sports journalism as a quality
component of social life that can positively influence the sports and its
perception by the population is omnipresent in contemporary society in
Romania.
Key words: sport, journalism, marketing, management, Romania,
Olympic, marketing, sportive journalism, strategy, public, sport
Nowadays we witness a huge increase in public interest
towards sport and information about sport. Growing popularity of sport has
attracted businessmen to thisarea that has become a good possibility for
investments. Sport and sports journalism arerepresenting not just social
activities now, but turn out to be a part of economic sphere, therefore
should act according to economic principles, particularly those of
marketing.Sports journalism should behave just like any other service or
product that has to be soldin conditions of the best possible visibility.
Influence of sports journalism in improving the quality of sport and
increasing the awareness of public about sport and sport culture represent a
very actually issue and research subject in 2014. That because the sport
becoming an industry and sports journalism becoming, as well, an industry.
There is a very nice project which can be applied for Romania. Our
country present right now a very nice option for increasing and improving
awareness of public about sport and sport culture, too.
Short explanation for about the management issue will be the next. The
issue of recognition of a sports journalism as a quality component of social
life that can positively influence the sports and its perception by the
population is omnipresent in contemporary society in Romania.
The sports journalism in Romanian language needs to regain its
traditional role of the educator of the public opinion. The present situation in
174
sports journalism has two major problems. On the one hand, the mass media
do not reveal the positive aspects of sports.
Journalist are constantly seeking some explanations for defeats,
without dissecting from the technical point of view or consulting the rules,
and consequently athletes gain a certain aversion to journalists. This
relationship must be tempered and reinvented in that way that media should
find their balanced status, be objective and treat analytically but in a
professional manner all successes and defeats. In this way, a good
relationship between the sports clubs, federations, athletes, coaches, referees
and mass media will be established for a long term.
The previous being addressed mass media should concentrate on the
second existing problem low awareness of the population about the sports
and sports culture. The familiarization of readers, viewers or listeners with
the demanding performance environment, the beautiful world of
competitions will reveal aspects of the sports that are not known now to the
big part of the population.
If the audience will manage, with the unconditional support from
mass media, to penetrate beyond the simple result of a sporting event, and
understand the story and message of each competition and each athlete, the
mass media may become the tool of a massive popularization of the sport,
increasing the selection base.
Parents will be more likely to bring their children towards sports, if
they know better and more about how to perform. In this way, the media
must regain its position as a bridge between population and athletes, sharing
fairly the information with benefits for both sides. A special attention should
be paid to sports schools, considered by the author of this application, a
strategic base for further development of the sports. Moreover, graduates
who choose not to continue the participation in competitions must be
harnessed in a different form and maintained in the system as referees,
journalists, club managers, and in other functions complementary to sports
Particular area of management might be concerned:
- strategic management;
- marketing;
- human resource;
- financial;
- event management.
Work methods chosen|:

175
- document analysis;
- interviews;
- Questionnaires;
- case study;
- literature reviews.
As a consequence of this research paper, I am expecting a better
collaboration between national sports federations and National Olympic and
Sports Committee, improved awareness about cooperation possibilities with
national Olympic forum for sports clubs and sports schools, enhanced
partnership between NOSC and mass media. This research should result in
organization of public symposiums for analysis of national and international
sports events, and conclusions from these symposiums to be used for other
events of the same kind in the future. If speaking about the 2016 Olympics,
I hope that Romania will be able to prepare a team of valuable athletes that
will win 15-20 medals.
The public perception of different sports branches must be realistic,
and the degree of knowledge of the public must grow exponentially until
then. In the long term, the possible organization of the Youth Winter
Olympics in Brasov in 2020 should be promoted, making the population
from Romania and Moldova appreciate the social, economic and sporting
advantages induced by such a great event.
The main goal of all these actions, after all, is a positive social
impact -if a majority of the population is occupied in sports, the degree of
delinquency and crime will decrease, and social security and education will
be positively impacted.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This paper has been financially supported within the project entitled
SOCERT. Knowledge society, dynamism through research, contract
number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/132406. This project is co-financed by
European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme for Human
Resources Development 2007-2013. Investing in people!
176

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