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Documente Profesional
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Presented by:
Jean-Jacques SPEYER
Director Operational Evaluation
Human Factors and Communication
AirSavings
A perspective to get started with dignified Cost Index Values
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
History
1927: Fuel saving - to increase range (Lindberg)
1940s: Fuel saving - to increase payload
1960s: Fly faster than the competition (Concorde)
Cost of
Time = Money
Cost
Index
=
1970s: Oil crisis - save fuel to save money:
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
FuelCost
= Money
of
1990: FMCs introduce balancing concept: Cost Index
[kg/min]
Time
= Fuel
[lbs/0,01hr]
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
calculates it
AirSavings
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Web-based Software
JV with fwz:
Sold by Airbus & f:wz
ROI within first month
Based on YOUR data!
AirSavings
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
Oil price will stay high in the short term but not forever
80
History
75
Forecast
70
High-price scenario
65
60
55
Base case
50
45
Low-price scenario
40
35
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
30
25
20
Q1
Q2
2002
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2003
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2004
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2005
Q3
Q4
2006
Source : Airbus
Brent $ / bbl
50
Nominal
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
40
30
Real $2005
20
History
Forecast
10
2004 2006
2008 2010
2012 2014
Source : Airbus
2016 2018
2020 2022
2024
There is ample room for Flight Operations to contribute with regard to this
Whether fuel costs increase or decrease, it is important to track their
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
changes to cipher out better cost indices for the FMS and for the CFP
FMS functionality
Very
Widely
Many
varying ideas about what the cost index is and time-dependent cost
AirSavings
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
Airlines
nowtackling
theirBases
Cost Bases
Airlines areare
really
tackling their Cost
Predictions for 2006 call for steady traffic growth (4.5 to 6.5%)
with fragile profitability and lower yields as facts of life
striving
some
for structurally lower costs must hence persist all the time
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
labour,
fuel hedging contracts beginning to expire, record prices now bite, taking a toll
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
Source : IATA
OLM FBW 2006
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
OLM FBW 2006
Source : IATA
Airlines
tackling
Cost
Bases
Airlines areare
really
tackling their
their Cost
Bases
Unit cost, capacity and expe nses change 2001-2004
-8.53%
All airlines in sample
-0.20%
9.11%
Unit cost
Operating Expenses
-7.02%
-4.98%
Capacity
2.20%
-11.63%
Rest of the w orld
16.24%
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
31.54%
Mainline
-6.00%
-4.20%
1.90%
-13.79%
Low -cos t
41.93%
64.64%
US Majors
AirSavings
-5.54%
-7.33%
-1.90%
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
Flight Operations,
Ground Operations incl. Dispatch and Passenger/ Cargo Service,
Engineering/Maintenance,
Finance & Accounting
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduce
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
internal cost data and city pair by city pair if they decided to go for it :
Cost of Time
Cost of Fuel
AirSavings
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
785.73 757.51 796.59 800.53 847.15 804.49
13.03 13.89 14.23 14.37 13.97 13.08
17.37 15.52 14.15 14.34 13.38 13.28
0.94
0.81
0.73
0.86
1.07
1.61
594
610
614
667
679
680
1,013.4 893.1 982.3 693.4 684.6 653.6
12.34 10.17
9.7 11.43 15.13 11.43
82
88
86
46
45
57
Inefficient
air traffic control (ATC) systems are the single largest cause of
fuel wastage for which creative solutions are now steadily underway :
FANS (CNS-ATM), RNP RNAV / RVSM (capacity increase)
Reduced Lateral Separations (overflight charges), Datalink ( ATC charges)
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
In Flight Procedures
Improve
Wind-Altitude
Cost
AirSavings
Similar to post flight FOQA report, why not define a Flight Efficiency Index?
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Source :
Airbus
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Source :
Airbus
AirSavings
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
AirSavings
money
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
PLEASE WAIT...
Solution:
express
time cost in
terms of fuel
time = fuel
Example:
Fuel cost = 0.5 USD / kg (1.5USD/USG), Time cost = 5 USD / minute (300USD/fh)
equivalent to a Time cost of 10 kg / minute !
AirSavings
Source : Airbus/fwz:
Fuel as a currency
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
Fuel as a currency
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Example:
Solution 1 (low speed)
Trip fuel = 40000kg
Flight time = 9:10 (550 minutes)
CI = 10 kg/min
Total cost = 45500kg (40000 + 550*10)
Solution 2 (high speed)
Trip fuel = 40500kg
Flight time = 8:50 (530 minutes)
CI = 10 kg/min
Total cost = 45800kg (40500 + 530*10)
Fuel
40000
Total
45500
Fuel
40500
Total
45800
Time
5500
300 Saving
Comparing Solutions
Time
5300
In this example, the low speed solution is optimal for cost index 10 !
(with a fuel price of 0.5 USD / kg we can convert the 300kg saving to 150
USD)
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Fuel
40000
Time
27500
Total
67500
Fuel
40500
Total
67000
Time
26500
500 Saving
Example:
Solution 1 (low speed)
Trip fuel = 40000kg
Flight time = 9:10 (550 minutes)
CI = 50 kg/min
Total cost = 67500kg (40000 + 550*50)
In this example we assume a higher cost of time, increasing the Cost Index
to 50.
Now the high speed solution becomes more optimal.
(with a fuel price of 0.5 USD / kg we can convert the 500kg saving to 250
USD)
AirSavings
98,00%
93,00%
Cost of Time
(USD/FH)
SFC (kg/NM)
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
88,00%
Fuel Flow
(kg/FH)
83,00%
78,00%
0,720
0,740
0,760
0,780
0,800
0,820
0,840
0,860
Mach
AirSavings
Maximum
Range
Minimum
Cost
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Automated
Interfaces
Automated
Interfaces
Flt Schedule
Flight
Flight
Planning
Planning
Crew Schedule
Fuel Prices
Database
Database
Cost
Cost Index
Index
per Flight
per
Flight
Currency Rates
A/C Rotation
AirSavings
FMCFBW 2006
OLM
Source : Airbus/fwz:
Cost Index
Administra
tion
Administration
Manual
Interfaces
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
No interfaces
No crew cost
Fuelprices by manual input
TDMC by manual input
Citypair Lists as Output
AirSavings
Manual Inputs
per CityPair
Cost Index
per City Pair
Internet
Internet
Flight
Flight
Planning
Planning
Database
FMC
Cost Index
Administra
tion
Administration
Manual Inputs
Cost Index
Automated
per Flight
Interfaces
Automated
Flt Schedule
Interfaces
Flight
Planning
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Crew Schedule
Fuel Prices
Database
Cost
Index
Cost Index
per
Flight
per Flight
Currency Rates
A/C Rotation
FMC
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
In the diagrams above, only the blue section is determining the TDMC, which
is purely the portion of cost that is directly proportional to flight time.
Only include costs that will be affected by a change in flight time as
small as a single minute.
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
Source :
OLM Airbus
FBW 2006
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
Source :
Airbus
OLM FBW
2006
s
Co
st
h
tC
h
lig
erf
e
ar g
De
l ay
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
t
os
Ov
Co
st I
nd
ex
MC
+F
ue
l
ta
To
TD
All cost factors of different solutions are visible for comparison in on single
display, with values relative to the best solution
AirSavings
Source :
OLM FBW 2006
fwz:
username: GUESTij
password: airsave
domain: public
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
http://airsavings.fwz.aero
Support :airsavings@fwz.aero
Do ask for a password here!
AirSavings
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
OLM FBW 2006
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
$/T
LR
483
261
40
600
1
LRC
1
LRC
1
LRC
5
M75
30%
5
M80
30%
4
M82
30%
Current Tankering
Tankering Potential
%
%
20%
40%
10%
30%
0%
20%
AirSavings
SR = Short Range
MR = Medium Range
LR = Long Range
LRC = Long Range Cruise
M80 = Mach 0.80 Cruise
CI 40 = Cost Index 40 Cruise
LR
290
157
40
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Real Optimization
this is how a well optimized solution will look like note that the zero values
are exactly on the correct lines in the orange fields,
typical in-flight solutions like the Mmo speed profile on a fuel optimized FL
profile in the last line show a significant cost penalty (over 4T of virtual fuel),
AirSavings
38,413 USD
5,000 USD
8,000 USD
5,762 USD/y
5 Years
15,044 USD/y
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
AirSavings
Numbero f A/C
Legs/Day
Legs/Year
Long Range
10
1.5
5475
39785
Opt. Module
FL/Mach
Delay Cost Index
Tankering
Long Range
1,586,655
857,385
219,000
Total
2,525,362
1,526,211
854,100
X
X
X
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Total (USD/Year)
Total
29
4,905,673
This is an estimate how much saving could be achieved in total relative to the current situation.
While AirSavings will contribute significantly to achieve those savings, this potential also implies that flight planning and
FMS handling is done accordingly, as well as pilots and dispatchers are properly trained to understand the concepts and
act accordingly.
AirSavings
Contents
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Introduction
AirSavings
AirSavings
Conclusion
Dont wait & dont drag your feet.
airsavings@fwz.aero
AIRBUS 2006 S. A. S. All ri ghts reserv ed. Conf identi al and proprietary doc ument.
Furtherquestions andanswers
canbe directedto:
jean-jacques.speyer@airbus.com
Thanks!