The World Hot Spots Youve Never Heard of That Could Ruin 2015

By Gregory Viscusi and Nicole Gaouette Dec 17, 2014 7:00 AM GMT+0800 - December 17, 2014
Skirmishes in the South China Sea lead to full-scale naval confrontation. Israel bombs Iran, setting off
an escalation of violence across the Middle East. Nigeria crumbles as oil prices fall and radicals gain
strength. Bloomberg News asked foreign policy analysts, military experts, economists and investors
to identify the possible worst-case scenarios, based on current global conflicts, that concern them
most heading into 2015.

Potential Flashpoint:
Violence from Syria spills over into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and beyond after Islamic State and the
Assad regime defeat the last vestiges of the moderate opposition.

Potential Flashpoint:

A third Palestinian uprising against Israel breaks out after the March elections. It turns into a violent
struggle involving increasingly fundamentalist Palestinian and Israeli fringes. Militants from
neighboring countries flock to the fray.

Potential Flashpoint:
Iran, failing to reach agreement with world powers on limiting its nuclear program, pushes through
with development of a nuclear weapon. Israel moves to stop Irans efforts, setting off a regional war.

Potential Flashpoint:
Hamas, seeking to gain more political clout, opens a new front with Israel from the West Bank or
renews attacks from its Gaza Strip stronghold.

Potential Flashpoint:
King Abdullah, 90, dies. The current crown prince, Salman, is 79. A succession takes place at a
sensitive moment as the Saudi Air Force keeps bombing Islamic State, which thousands of young
Saudis have joined.

Potential Flashpoint:
Vladimir Putin undermines NATO members by stirring up trouble with Russian minorities in Estonia
and Latvia, and with Russias Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania. Recent airspace
encounters show Russias willingness to test NATOs capabilities.

Potential Flashpoint:
Putin-backed rebels, supported by Russian forces, drive further west in Ukraine to create a land
corridor to join up with Crimea. That triggers deeper economic sanctions from the U.S. and the
European Union and forces them to accelerate military support to the government.

Potential Flashpoint:
Confrontations break out between Chinese navy vessels and fishermen in South China Sea; Chinese
and Japanese fighter jets engage in a dogfight over the disputed Senkaku/Daioyu Islands. The
escalation brings in allies, inflaming nationalistic tensions.

Potential Flashpoint:
Militants from the Boko Haram Islamist group increase their attacks, gaining control of more
territory for their self-styled caliphate in northeastern Nigeria. President Goodluck Jonathans
military fails to stem the rise of the insurgency in Africas most populous nation.

Potential Flashpoint:
Taliban militants in the mountainous Pashtun-dominated regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan link up
with Islamic State. They make progress in their quest to take power in Kabul and Islamabad as the
U.S. reduces its troop presence.

Potential Flashpoint:
A terrorist attack occurs on the scale of Mumbai in 2008, when luxury hotels and a train station were
attacked by a Pakistan-based militant group. Prime Minister Narendra Modis Hindu nationalist BJP
(Bharatiya Janata Party) is pressured into a harsh response, triggering a crisis between the nucleararmed neighbors.

Potential Flashpoint:
A North Korean submarine sinks a South Korean ship claiming it was spying. Citing the sinking of
South Korean ship Cheonan in 2010, South Korea retaliates by sinking a North Korean vessel.

Potential Flashpoint:
Growing tensions among Russia, the U.S., Norway, Denmark and Canada over who owns the right to
natural resources in the Arctic leads to direct standoffs between vessels. Disputes arise over
territories such as Svalbard as climate change melts more Arctic ice and increases the commercial
potential of the region.

Potential Flashpoint:
Islamic State militants ignite a full-blown sectarian war, pitting the Shiite Muslim majority against the
Sunni minority. This disrupts the countrys oil production and draws U.S. and regional powers into
the conflict.

Potential Flashpoint:
Greeces government falls, bringing to power anti-euro opposition leader Alexis Tsipras and
weakening Greeces status among euro countries, some of which face extremist movements of their
own. Hamstrung European policy makers fail to respond. Contagion spreads through the regions
bond markets, reigniting the euro-zone crisis.