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Si es el propietario de una cartera de inversiones, sabr que no existe certeza alguna sobre el valor futuro de su cartera. E
a riesgo (VAR) se puede utilizar para describir la incertidumbre que gobierna una cartera. Sencillamente, el valor a riesgo
un momento dado del futuro se estima normalmente en el percentil 5 de la prdida de valor de la cartera en ese momen
solo hay 1 posibilidad de 20 de que la prdida de la cartera exceda el VAR. Para ilustrar esta idea supongamos que una ca
Si simula el valor que la cartera tendr dentro de un ao, ver que hay un 5% de probabilidades de que el valor de la cart
menos. Por lo tanto, el VAR de la cartera es de $20 o el 20% del valor actual de la cartera.
Este ejemplo puede servirle de punto de partida. Es determinstico y, por tanto, muy poco realista. Supone que los precio
aumentan con las tasas anuales medias de la fila 6, sin ninguna incertidumbre e ignorando completamente las volatibilid
esta manera, se llega a un resultado de la cartera seguro del 9.82% en un periodo de 6 meses. En este modelo, el VAR no
no hay ningn riesgo.
Observe que las filas de valores 6 y 7 se estiman a partir de los datos histricos de la siguiente hoja de clculo. Consulte
para ver los clculos. Por supuesto, al confiar en datos histricos, este modelo supone tcitamente que la historia volver
menos probabilsticamente.
Palisade Corporation
Accin2
$33.42
2000
0.5
24.14%
19.85%
Accin3
$92.97
1500
0.5
16.86%
29.74%
Accin4
$41.33
500
0.5
22.54%
22.36%
Accin5
$37.48
1500
0.5
18.22%
22.06%
$101.15
$46.26
$41.06
8.79%
11.93%
9.54%
Entradas conocidas
Precio actual de las acciones
Acciones compradas
Tiempo que se conservarn (en aos)
Tasa de crecimiento anual media
Volatibilidad anual
Salidas
Resultados de las acciones
Resultado de la cartera
Accin1
$25.47
1000
0.5
12.47%
25.34%
6.43%
9.82%
12.83%
Pgina 3
Mes
1/1/1998
2/1/1998
3/1/1998
4/1/1998
5/1/1998
6/1/1998
7/1/1998
8/1/1998
9/1/1998
10/1/1998
11/1/1998
12/1/1998
1/1/1999
2/1/1999
3/1/1999
4/1/1999
5/1/1999
6/1/1999
7/1/1999
8/1/1999
9/1/1999
10/1/1999
11/1/1999
12/1/1999
1/1/2000
2/1/2000
3/1/2000
4/1/2000
5/1/2000
6/1/2000
7/1/2000
8/1/2000
9/1/2000
10/1/2000
11/1/2000
12/1/2000
1/1/2001
2/1/2001
3/1/2001
4/1/2001
5/1/2001
6/1/2001
7/1/2001
8/1/2001
9/1/2001
10/1/2001
11/1/2001
12/1/2001
Precios de cierre
Accin1 Accin2
7.32
2.99
7.70
2.98
7.81
3.10
7.78
3.09
9.08
3.35
9.03
3.37
8.29
3.48
7.21
3.02
6.38
2.67
6.42
2.55
7.03
2.69
7.16
2.84
7.65
3.17
8.72
3.39
8.41
3.47
8.15
3.53
8.21
3.88
7.89
3.72
8.56
3.68
8.42
3.76
8.08
3.51
8.43
3.49
7.44
3.28
8.13
3.90
9.70
3.84
10.93
4.01
10.78
3.89
10.38
3.94
10.82
3.92
10.29
4.02
10.27
3.96
9.84
3.83
10.34
4.08
11.25
4.00
12.05
4.34
12.28
4.49
13.05
4.52
12.69
4.42
12.72
4.72
11.67
4.80
12.60
4.91
11.67
5.10
10.75
5.25
11.26
5.24
10.83
5.14
12.35
5.20
11.46
5.28
12.25
5.66
Accin3
17.23
18.37
18.77
19.28
21.46
21.01
19.94
18.43
19.24
19.08
20.78
20.67
23.18
23.78
21.03
19.02
19.83
18.15
18.92
18.32
19.60
18.58
17.71
17.04
17.23
16.86
16.20
17.61
17.84
19.24
18.63
17.26
16.09
13.32
13.84
10.22
10.45
11.15
10.43
9.97
10.93
10.23
9.22
9.54
8.75
9.59
11.29
11.83
Accin4
4.34
4.47
4.68
4.72
5.35
5.68
5.92
5.53
5.33
5.42
5.91
6.08
6.48
6.98
8.15
8.04
7.74
7.13
7.82
7.97
7.58
8.16
8.30
9.86
9.26
8.75
8.43
8.20
8.41
7.77
8.56
8.62
8.23
8.73
8.84
8.86
7.72
7.49
7.51
7.69
7.91
7.36
6.47
7.28
7.03
7.52
7.84
8.06
Accin5
6.06
5.87
5.91
5.63
6.46
6.63
5.86
5.22
4.87
4.73
5.28
5.47
5.35
5.94
6.54
6.31
6.61
6.21
6.18
6.18
6.63
6.58
6.38
7.21
8.26
7.71
7.59
8.44
8.94
8.77
8.37
8.12
8.48
8.77
9.39
9.34
9.31
9.72
10.15
9.24
9.55
9.45
9.91
10.36
10.00
11.11
11.32
11.01
LN(1+devolucin)
Accin1 Accin2
5.06%
1.42%
-0.38%
15.45%
-0.55%
-8.55%
-13.96%
-12.23%
0.63%
9.08%
1.83%
6.62%
13.09%
-3.62%
-3.14%
0.73%
-3.98%
8.15%
-1.65%
-4.12%
4.24%
-12.49%
8.87%
17.66%
11.94%
-1.38%
-3.78%
4.15%
-5.02%
-0.19%
-4.28%
4.96%
8.43%
6.87%
1.89%
6.08%
-2.80%
0.24%
-8.62%
7.67%
-7.67%
-8.21%
4.64%
-3.89%
13.13%
-7.48%
6.67%
-0.34%
3.95%
-0.32%
8.08%
0.60%
3.21%
-14.18%
-12.32%
-4.60%
5.34%
5.43%
10.99%
6.71%
2.33%
1.71%
9.45%
-4.21%
-1.08%
2.15%
-6.88%
-0.57%
-6.21%
17.31%
-1.55%
4.33%
-3.04%
1.28%
-0.51%
2.52%
-1.50%
-3.34%
6.32%
-1.98%
8.16%
3.40%
0.67%
-2.24%
6.57%
1.68%
2.27%
3.80%
2.90%
-0.19%
-1.93%
1.16%
1.53%
6.95%
Accin3
6.41%
2.15%
2.68%
10.71%
-2.12%
-5.23%
-7.87%
4.30%
-0.84%
8.54%
-0.53%
11.46%
2.56%
-12.29%
-10.05%
4.17%
-8.85%
4.15%
-3.22%
6.75%
-5.34%
-4.80%
-3.86%
1.11%
-2.17%
-3.99%
8.35%
1.30%
7.55%
-3.22%
-7.64%
-7.02%
-18.89%
3.83%
-30.32%
2.23%
6.48%
-6.68%
-4.51%
9.19%
-6.62%
-10.39%
3.41%
-8.64%
9.17%
16.32%
4.67%
1/1/2002
2/1/2002
3/1/2002
4/1/2002
5/1/2002
6/1/2002
7/1/2002
8/1/2002
9/1/2002
10/1/2002
11/1/2002
12/1/2002
1/1/2003
2/1/2003
3/1/2003
4/1/2003
5/1/2003
6/1/2003
7/1/2003
8/1/2003
9/1/2003
10/1/2003
11/1/2003
12/1/2003
1/1/2004
2/1/2004
3/1/2004
4/1/2004
5/1/2004
6/1/2004
7/1/2004
8/1/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/1/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/1/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/1/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/1/2006
2/1/2006
13.59
13.81
12.08
12.25
12.50
12.00
12.23
11.91
11.19
11.43
12.58
13.31
14.74
15.47
15.50
16.07
16.11
16.11
17.04
16.35
16.68
16.78
17.51
17.17
18.73
19.10
18.63
18.11
17.74
18.37
16.28
16.68
18.51
19.31
21.66
20.45
21.40
21.80
21.40
24.05
24.08
23.61
23.81
22.63
23.75
24.31
28.02
29.21
31.58
33.08
5.82
5.69
5.44
5.18
5.41
5.11
5.52
5.45
5.31
5.40
5.08
5.68
5.73
6.09
6.05
6.28
6.50
6.37
6.66
6.65
7.25
7.19
7.63
8.24
8.78
8.64
8.96
8.89
9.52
9.98
9.52
9.62
10.58
11.25
12.09
11.56
12.10
12.02
11.66
13.04
14.19
15.27
16.54
14.76
16.12
15.30
17.49
17.45
18.43
18.49
11.83
11.13
11.49
12.10
13.31
12.42
13.08
14.53
14.77
15.81
15.06
15.65
15.35
16.07
17.54
20.21
19.92
20.56
23.32
22.19
20.29
20.88
20.79
19.66
23.35
26.45
23.99
23.24
23.10
21.42
23.26
24.83
27.03
28.00
34.69
32.98
34.15
31.36
29.95
35.02
37.75
39.38
46.15
44.32
46.34
43.06
47.97
45.83
43.26
45.84
7.61
7.25
6.82
7.48
8.05
7.81
8.56
9.18
9.48
10.00
9.83
10.08
10.70
10.50
11.01
12.03
12.30
12.55
13.34
12.89
13.85
15.23
16.25
16.04
18.01
17.60
17.37
17.41
18.41
18.71
18.05
18.69
19.44
18.69
20.28
18.95
21.99
21.97
20.20
23.35
23.00
24.68
23.82
21.82
22.20
22.08
24.31
25.44
25.86
29.20
11.73
11.73
11.00
11.61
11.99
11.19
10.51
10.97
10.24
11.22
11.04
11.39
12.70
12.97
13.31
13.65
14.80
15.29
15.09
14.29
14.97
16.05
17.50
17.69
19.70
19.63
18.84
18.80
18.92
18.38
18.24
18.26
18.66
17.52
18.44
17.90
17.95
17.09
18.67
21.14
19.88
19.12
21.27
18.75
18.88
17.76
19.26
18.96
18.71
21.70
10.38%
1.61%
-13.38%
1.40%
2.02%
-4.08%
1.90%
-2.65%
-6.24%
2.12%
9.59%
5.64%
10.20%
4.83%
0.19%
3.61%
0.25%
0.00%
5.61%
-4.13%
2.00%
0.60%
4.26%
-1.96%
8.70%
1.96%
-2.49%
-2.83%
-2.06%
3.49%
-12.08%
2.43%
10.41%
4.23%
11.48%
-5.75%
4.54%
1.85%
-1.85%
11.67%
0.12%
-1.97%
0.84%
-5.08%
4.83%
2.33%
14.20%
4.16%
7.80%
4.64%
2.79%
-2.26%
-4.49%
-4.90%
4.34%
-5.70%
7.72%
-1.28%
-2.60%
1.68%
-6.11%
11.16%
0.88%
6.09%
-0.66%
3.73%
3.44%
-2.02%
4.45%
-0.15%
8.64%
-0.83%
5.94%
7.69%
6.35%
-1.61%
3.64%
-0.78%
6.85%
4.72%
-4.72%
1.04%
9.51%
6.14%
7.20%
-4.48%
4.57%
-0.66%
-3.04%
11.19%
8.45%
7.34%
7.99%
-11.39%
8.81%
-5.22%
13.38%
-0.23%
5.46%
0.33%
0.00%
-6.10%
3.18%
5.17%
9.53%
-6.92%
5.18%
10.51%
1.64%
6.80%
-4.86%
3.84%
-1.94%
4.58%
8.75%
14.17%
-1.45%
3.16%
12.60%
-4.97%
-8.95%
2.87%
-0.43%
-5.59%
17.20%
12.47%
-9.76%
-3.18%
-0.60%
-7.55%
8.24%
6.53%
8.49%
3.53%
21.42%
-5.06%
3.49%
-8.52%
-4.60%
15.64%
7.51%
4.23%
15.86%
-4.05%
4.46%
-7.34%
10.80%
-4.56%
-5.77%
5.79%
3/1/2006
4/1/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/1/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/1/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/1/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/1/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/1/2007
8/1/2007
9/1/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/1/2007
31.54
36.86
33.51
31.09
30.62
24.39
22.55
24.00
28.68
26.72
29.40
31.35
27.72
28.28
25.94
27.45
24.55
24.72
23.16
23.66
25.10
25.21
20.58
20.34
19.90
21.69
21.42
19.16
19.12
21.03
21.72
24.60
25.30
24.20
26.78
25.51
24.62
27.35
26.47
27.27
28.87
33.00
31.69
32.76
45.59
50.86
51.67
50.49
58.27
49.61
56.60
65.41
72.85
81.34
80.84
74.98
78.30
92.41
102.60
114.32
111.17
110.28
107.13
86.98
91.36
91.68
28.46
27.70
26.85
28.77
30.04
26.92
30.53
31.79
31.79
32.82
33.30
33.50
36.69
38.26
36.45
38.57
35.84
40.36
36.27
41.35
41.07
40.57
23.86
24.61
26.13
27.48
26.60
22.48
23.80
26.74
27.97
30.67
31.47
33.94
36.22
33.88
30.82
32.92
33.37
33.16
34.66
33.06
36.70
36.92
Medias mensuales
Desv est mensuales
Medias anuales
Desv est anuales
-4.77%
15.59%
-9.53%
-7.50%
-1.52%
-22.75%
-7.84%
6.23%
17.81%
-7.08%
9.56%
6.42%
-12.31%
2.00%
-8.64%
5.66%
-11.17%
0.69%
-6.52%
2.14%
5.91%
0.44%
10.71%
-1.17%
-2.19%
8.61%
-1.25%
-11.15%
-0.21%
9.52%
3.23%
12.45%
2.81%
-4.45%
10.13%
-4.86%
-3.55%
10.52%
-3.27%
2.98%
5.70%
13.37%
-4.05%
3.32%
-0.55%
10.94%
1.58%
-2.31%
14.33%
-16.09%
13.18%
14.47%
10.77%
11.02%
-0.62%
-7.53%
4.33%
16.57%
10.46%
10.82%
-2.79%
-0.80%
-2.90%
-20.84%
4.91%
0.35%
1.04%
7.31%
2.01%
5.73%
1.40%
8.58%
12.47%
25.34%
24.14%
19.85%
16.86%
29.74%
Accin4
Accin5
2.95%
4.59%
0.85%
12.53%
5.99%
4.14%
-6.81%
-3.68%
1.67%
8.66%
2.84%
6.37%
7.43%
15.50%
-1.36%
-3.80%
-8.21%
9.24%
1.90%
-5.02%
7.37%
1.70%
17.22%
-6.28%
-5.67%
-3.73%
-2.77%
2.53%
-7.92%
9.68%
0.70%
-4.63%
5.90%
1.25%
0.23%
-13.77%
-3.02%
0.27%
2.37%
2.82%
-7.21%
-12.89%
11.80%
-3.49%
6.74%
4.17%
2.77%
-3.19%
0.68%
-4.85%
13.75%
2.60%
-12.35%
-11.57%
-6.94%
-2.92%
11.00%
3.54%
-2.22%
10.46%
9.62%
-3.58%
4.64%
-6.24%
-0.48%
0.00%
7.03%
-0.76%
-3.09%
12.23%
13.60%
-6.89%
-1.57%
10.62%
5.76%
-1.92%
-4.67%
-3.03%
4.34%
3.36%
6.83%
-0.53%
-0.32%
4.31%
4.33%
-9.39%
3.30%
-1.05%
4.75%
4.44%
-3.54%
10.53%
1.87%
-2.78%
-5.75%
-4.85%
-6.11%
9.24%
7.34%
-3.03%
9.17%
6.99%
3.22%
5.34%
-1.71%
2.51%
5.97%
-1.89%
4.74%
8.86%
2.22%
2.01%
6.10%
-3.43%
7.18%
9.50%
6.48%
-1.30%
11.58%
-2.30%
-1.32%
0.23%
5.58%
1.62%
-3.59%
3.48%
3.93%
-3.93%
8.16%
-6.78%
14.88%
-0.09%
-8.40%
14.49%
-1.51%
7.05%
-3.55%
-8.77%
1.73%
-0.54%
9.62%
4.54%
1.64%
12.15%
6.33%
0.00%
-6.43%
5.40%
3.22%
-6.91%
-6.27%
4.28%
-6.89%
9.14%
-1.62%
3.12%
10.89%
2.10%
2.59%
2.52%
8.09%
3.26%
-1.32%
-5.45%
4.65%
6.97%
8.65%
1.08%
10.76%
-0.36%
-4.11%
-0.21%
0.64%
-2.90%
-0.76%
0.11%
2.17%
-6.30%
5.12%
-2.97%
0.28%
-4.91%
8.84%
12.42%
-6.15%
-3.90%
10.66%
-12.61%
0.69%
-6.12%
8.11%
-1.57%
-1.33%
14.83%
-2.57%
-2.71%
-3.12%
6.91%
4.32%
-10.97%
12.58%
4.04%
0.00%
3.19%
1.45%
0.60%
9.10%
4.19%
-4.85%
5.65%
-7.34%
11.88%
-10.68%
13.11%
-0.68%
-1.22%
9.49%
3.09%
5.99%
5.04%
-3.25%
-16.83%
5.71%
11.65%
4.50%
9.22%
2.57%
7.56%
6.50%
-6.68%
-9.47%
6.59%
1.36%
-0.63%
4.42%
-4.73%
10.45%
0.60%
1.88%
6.46%
1.52%
6.37%
22.54%
22.36%
18.22%
22.06%