Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Resumen de escenario
NORMAL
OPTIMISTA
Celdas cambiantes:
TASA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LOS FCL
0.03
0.05
Celdas de resultado:
VALOR DE LA EMPRESA
$ 60,620,806.85 $ 65,068,103.16
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se cre el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.
PESIMISTA
0.01
$ 57,023,163.55
las celdas cambiantes
Las celdas cambiantes de
PROYECCIONES ANUALES
2016
2017
18,000
25,000
510
580
2.5
2.5
$ 91
$ 93
350
450
1.2
1.2
$ 3,750
$ 3,800
$ 1,200
$ 1,300
2018
30,000
560
2.5
$ 99
550
1.2
$ 4,100
$ 1,500
$ 12,000
$ 14,000
$ 15,000
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
$9,500,000
0.125
$10,687,500
0.125
$12,023,438
0.125
$13,526,367
0.125
$15,217,163
0.125
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
2014
$ 63,451,625
$ 23,400
$ 831,575
$ 64,306,600
2015
$ 87,150,367
$ 22,500
$ 2,031,668
$ 89,204,535
2016
$ 137,432,422
$ 31,850
$ 3,023,018
$ 140,487,290
2017
$ 255,509,126
$ 41,850
$ 3,533,634
$ 259,084,610
2018
$ 390,804,969
$ 54,450
$ 3,733,750
$ 394,593,168
Edificio
(Depreciacin Edificios)
Propiedad Planta y Equipo
(Depreciacin Maquinaria y Equipo)
TOTAL PROPIEDAD PLANTA Y EQUIPO
$ 50,000,000
-$ 1,250,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 4,000,000
$ 124,750,000
$ 50,000,000
-$ 3,750,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 12,000,000
$ 114,250,000
$ 50,000,000
-$ 6,250,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 20,000,000
$ 103,750,000
$ 50,000,000
-$ 8,750,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 28,000,000
$ 93,250,000
$ 50,000,000
-$ 11,250,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 36,000,000
$ 82,750,000
TOTAL ACTIVO
$ 189,056,600
$ 203,454,535
$ 244,237,290
$ 352,334,610
$ 477,343,168
$ 2,314,244
$ 7,250,000
$ 9,564,244
$ 10,891,268
$0
$ 10,891,268
$ 19,777,914
$0
$ 19,777,914
$ 45,714,705
$0
$ 45,714,705
$ 60,874,159
$0
$ 60,874,159
Obligacin financiera
TOTAL PASIVO NO CORRIENTE
$ 50,000,000
$ 50,000,000
$ 40,958,337
$ 40,958,337
$ 32,699,287
$ 32,699,287
$ 22,045,113
$ 22,045,113
$ 8,301,228
$ 8,301,228
TOTAL PASIVO
$ 59,564,244
$ 51,849,605
$ 52,477,201
$ 67,759,817
$ 69,175,387
$ 125,000,000
$ 125,000,000
$ 125,000,000
$ 125,000,000
$ 125,000,000
Capital
180
$50,000,000
5
29.00%
$ 4,492,356
$0
$ 129,492,356
$ 22,112,575
$ 4,492,356
$ 151,604,931
$ 40,155,158
$ 26,604,931
$ 191,760,089
$ 92,814,703
$ 66,760,089
$ 284,574,792
$ 123,592,989
$ 159,574,792
$ 408,167,781
$ 189,056,600
$0
$ 203,454,535
$0
$ 244,237,290
$0
$ 352,334,610
$0
$ 477,343,168
$0
15,200
$ 11,000
$ 167,200,000
18,000
$ 12,000
$ 216,000,000
25,000
$ 14,000
$ 350,000,000
30,000
$ 15,000
$ 450,000,000
0
$ 167,200,000
$ 167,200,000
0
0
0
$0
$0
$ 216,000,000
$ 216,000,000
0
0
0
$0
$0
$ 350,000,000
$ 350,000,000
0
0
0
$0
$0
$ 450,000,000
$ 450,000,000
0
0
0
$0
15,200
350
15,550
155
15,395
18,000
510
18,510
350
18,160
25,000
580
25,580
510
25,070
30,000
560
30,560
580
29,980
15,395
1.2
18,474
18,160
1.2
21,792
25,070
1.2
30,084
29,980
1.2
35,976
18,474
$ 3,650
$ 67,430,100
21,792
$ 3,750
$ 81,720,000
30,084
$ 3,800
$ 114,319,200
35,976
$ 4,100
$ 147,501,600
15,395
2.5
38,488
18,160
2.5
45,400
25,070
2.5
62,675
29,980
2.5
74,950
38,488
250
38,738
300
38,438
45,400
350
45,750
250
45,500
62,675
450
63,125
350
62,775
74,950
550
75,500
450
75,050
38,438
45,500
62,775
75,050
COSTO DE HMODR
HMODR
(*) Costo de MOD (Tasa Salarial)
COSTO DE HMOD
$ 90
$ 3,459,375
$ 91
$ 4,140,500
$ 93
$ 5,838,075
$ 99
$ 7,429,950
15,395
$ 1,200
$ 18,474,000
18,160
$ 1,200
$ 21,792,000
25,070
$ 1,300
$ 32,591,000
29,980
$ 1,500
$ 44,970,000
$ 23,400
$ 3,459,375
$ 3,482,775
$ 22,500
$ 3,460,275
$ 67,430,100
$ 18,474,000
$ 89,364,375
$ 831,575
$ 2,031,668
$ 88,164,282
$ 22,500
$ 4,140,500
$ 4,163,000
$ 31,850
$ 4,131,150
$ 81,720,000
$ 21,792,000
$ 107,643,150
$ 2,031,668
$ 3,023,018
$ 106,651,800
$ 31,850
$ 5,838,075
$ 5,869,925
$ 41,850
$ 5,828,075
$ 114,319,200
$ 32,591,000
$ 152,738,275
$ 3,023,018
$ 3,533,634
$ 152,227,659
$ 41,850
$ 7,429,950
$ 7,471,800
$ 54,450
$ 7,417,350
$ 147,501,600
$ 44,970,000
$ 199,888,950
$ 3,533,634
$ 3,733,750
$ 199,688,834
PPTO DE CAPITAL
Monto de la deuda
Tasa
Plazo Total en aos
Periodos Totales
Tasa Periodica
Valor de la cuota
$ 50,000,000
29.00%
5
60
2.1447%
2.1447%
$1,489,228
TABLA AMORTIZACION
PERIODO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
VR CUOTA
INTERES
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,072,346.70
1,063,405.87
1,054,273.28
1,044,944.83
1,035,416.31
1,025,683.44
1,015,741.82
1,005,586.99
995,214.36
984,619.28
973,796.96
962,742.54
951,451.04
939,917.36
928,136.33
916,102.62
AB CAPITAL
416,881.60
425,822.44
434,955.02
444,283.47
453,811.99
463,544.87
473,486.48
483,641.32
494,013.94
504,609.02
515,431.34
526,485.76
537,777.27
549,310.94
561,091.98
573,125.68
SALDO FINAL
50,000,000.00
49,583,118.40
49,157,295.96
48,722,340.94
48,278,057.47
47,824,245.48
47,360,700.61
46,887,214.12
46,403,572.81
45,909,558.87
45,404,949.84
44,889,518.50
44,363,032.74
43,825,255.47
43,275,944.53
42,714,852.55
42,141,726.87
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
1,489,228.31
903,810.84
891,255.43
878,430.74
865,331.01
851,950.32
838,282.66
824,321.88
810,061.67
795,495.63
780,617.19
765,419.65
749,896.18
734,039.77
717,843.29
701,299.45
684,400.79
667,139.71
649,508.43
631,499.01
613,103.35
594,313.15
575,119.97
555,515.15
535,489.86
515,035.10
494,141.64
472,800.08
451,000.81
428,734.01
405,989.66
382,757.52
359,027.11
334,787.76
310,028.55
284,738.33
258,905.71
232,519.06
205,566.50
178,035.89
149,914.84
121,190.67
91,850.46
61,880.99
31,268.76
39,353,698.31
585,417.47
597,972.88
610,797.56
623,897.30
637,277.98
650,945.64
664,906.43
679,166.63
693,732.68
708,611.12
723,808.65
739,332.13
755,188.53
771,385.01
787,928.86
804,827.52
822,088.60
839,719.88
857,729.29
876,124.96
894,915.15
914,108.34
933,713.16
953,738.44
974,193.21
995,086.67
1,016,428.23
1,038,227.49
1,060,494.29
1,083,238.64
1,106,470.79
1,130,201.20
1,154,440.55
1,179,199.76
1,204,489.98
1,230,322.59
1,256,709.24
1,283,661.80
1,311,192.41
1,339,313.47
1,368,037.64
1,397,377.85
1,427,347.32
1,457,959.54
41,556,309.40
40,958,336.52
40,347,538.96
39,723,641.66
39,086,363.68
38,435,418.04
37,770,511.61
37,091,344.97
36,397,612.30
35,689,001.18
34,965,192.53
34,225,860.40
33,470,671.87
32,699,286.85
31,911,358.00
31,106,530.48
30,284,441.88
29,444,722.01
28,586,992.71
27,710,867.75
26,815,952.60
25,901,844.26
24,968,131.10
24,014,392.66
23,040,199.45
22,045,112.78
21,028,684.55
19,990,457.06
18,929,962.77
17,846,724.13
16,740,253.34
15,610,052.14
14,455,611.59
13,276,411.84
12,071,921.86
10,841,599.27
9,584,890.03
8,301,228.23
6,990,035.81
5,650,722.35
4,282,684.71
2,885,306.86
1,457,959.54
-0.00
$ 167,200,000
$ 88,164,282
$ 79,035,718
$10,687,500
$2,500,000
$8,000,000
$13,376,000
$34,563,500
$44,472,218
$0
$11,468,376
$33,003,843
$10,891,268
$22,112,575
$ 216,000,000
$ 106,651,800
$ 109,348,200
$12,023,438
$2,500,000
$8,000,000
$17,280,000
$39,803,438
$69,544,762
$0
9,611,689.99
$59,933,072
$19,777,914
$40,155,158
$ 350,000,000
$ 152,227,659
$ 197,772,341
$13,526,367
$2,500,000
$8,000,000
$28,000,000
$52,026,367
$145,745,974
$0
7,216,565.59
$138,529,408
$45,714,705
$92,814,703
$ 450,000,000
$ 199,688,834
$ 250,311,166
$15,217,163
$2,500,000
$8,000,000
$36,000,000
$61,717,163
$188,594,003
$0
4,126,855.11
$184,467,148
$60,874,159
$123,592,989
$63,451,625
$87,150,367
$137,432,422
$255,509,126
$167,200,000
$0
$0
$167,200,000
$230,651,625
$216,000,000
$0
$0
$216,000,000
$303,150,367
$350,000,000
$0
$0
$350,000,000
$487,432,422
$450,000,000
$0
$0
$450,000,000
$705,509,126
$67,430,100
$3,459,375
$18,474,000
$10,687,500
$13,376,000
$7,250,000
$11,468,376
$9,041,663
$2,314,244
$143,501,258
$23,698,742
$87,150,367
$81,720,000
$4,140,500
$21,792,000
$12,023,438
$17,280,000
$0
$9,611,690
$8,259,050
$10,891,268
$165,717,945
$50,282,055
$137,432,422
$114,319,200
$5,838,075
$32,591,000
$13,526,367
$28,000,000
$0
$7,216,566
$10,654,174
$19,777,914
$231,923,296
$118,076,704
$255,509,126
$147,501,600
$7,429,950
$44,970,000
$15,217,163
$36,000,000
$0
$4,126,855
$13,743,885
$45,714,705
$314,704,157
$135,295,843
$390,804,969
$ 29,796,386
$ 10,500,000
$0
$0
$ 40,296,386
$ 46,594,991
$ 10,500,000
$0
$0
$ 57,094,991
$ 97,649,802
$ 10,500,000
$0
$0
$ 108,149,802
$ 126,357,982
$ 10,500,000
$0
$0
$ 136,857,982
$ 23,570,911
-$ 10,500,000
$ 27,225,475
$ 42,396,109
-$ 10,500,000
$ 25,198,882
$ 92,660,529
-$ 10,500,000
$ 25,989,273
$ 120,349,104
-$ 10,500,000
$ 27,008,877
21.94%
0.03 crecimiento de la economia
101,526,657.34
$ 27,225,475.11
$ 25,198,882
$ 25,989,273
##############
$ 50,000,000
$ 60,620,806.85
$ 27,008,877
$ 120,752,760
#############
NOPAT= Utilidad Operacional * (1-Tasa impto)
Variacin de capital de trabajo
Capital de trabajo (2015) - capital de trabajo (2014)
capital de trabajo = Act cte - ( Pas cte - deudas con costo)
PROCESOS DE CALCULO DE VALOR DE LA EMPRESA
WACC
TASA g
VALOR RESIDUAL
TOTAL FLUJOS DE CAJA LIBRE
VALOR PRESENTE DE LOS FLUJOS DE CAJA LIBRE
VALOR DE LA OBLIGACION
VALOR DE LA EMPRESA
PROCESO DE VALORACION MEDIANTE EVAS DESCONTADO
eva - valor adicional que incrementa el valor de la inversion en cada periodo
EVA = NOPAT - ( CAPITAL INVERTIDO * WACC )
CAPITAL INVERTIDO = CAPITAL DE TRABAJO + ACTIVOS LIGADOS A LA OPERACIN
NOPAT
CAPITAL INVERTIDO
COSTO DE CAPITAL
EVA
EVA RESIDUAL
EVAS PARA VALORACION
OBLIGACIONES FINANCIERAS
VALOR EMPRESA
##############
$ 50,000,000
$ 71,884,345.42
$ 29,796,386
$ 46,594,991
$ 192,563,267 $ 224,459,376
$ 42,242,603.89 $ 49,239,653.28
############# -$ 2,644,662.52
$ 97,649,802 $ 126,357,982
$ 306,619,905 $ 416,469,009
$ 67,263,208.60 $ 91,360,806.61
$ 30,386,593.74 $ 34,997,175.18
#############
$ 30,386,593.74 $ 34,997,175.18
-$ 2,644,662.52
0.08
$17,119,308
0.125
0.33
2019
$ 585,626,132
$ 55,000
$ 3,735,191
$ 589,416,323
$ 50,000,000
-$ 13,750,000
$ 80,000,000
-$ 44,000,000
$ 72,250,000
$ 661,666,323
$ 83,654,519
$0
$ 83,654,519
$0
$0
$ 83,654,519
$ 125,000,000
$ 169,844,023
$ 283,167,781
$ 578,011,804
$ 661,666,323
$0
35,000
$ 16,000
$ 560,000,000
$0
$ 560,000,000
$ 560,000,000
0
0
0
$0
35,000
560
35,560
560
35,000
35,000
1.2
42,000
42,000
$ 4,100
$ 172,200,000
35,000
2.5
87,500
87,500
550
88,050
550
87,500
87,500
$ 100
$ 8,750,000
35,000
$ 1,500
$ 52,500,000
$ 54,450
$ 8,750,000
$ 8,804,450
$ 55,000
$ 8,749,450
$ 172,200,000
$ 52,500,000
$ 233,449,450
$ 3,733,750
$ 3,735,191
$ 233,448,008
6,296,070.44
2,639,299.39
11,468,375.58
6,402,364.08
9,611,689.99
8,259,049.67
7,216,565.59
10,654,174.07
4,126,855.11
13,743,884.55
634,141.61
8,301,228.23
$ 560,000,000
$ 233,448,008
$ 326,551,992
$17,119,308
$2,500,000
$8,000,000
$44,800,000
$72,419,308
$254,132,683
$0
634,141.61
$253,498,542
$83,654,519
$169,844,023
$390,804,969
$560,000,000
$0
$0
$560,000,000
$950,804,969
$172,200,000
$8,750,000
$52,500,000
$17,119,308
$44,800,000
$0
$634,142
$8,301,228
$60,874,159
$365,178,837
$194,821,163
$585,626,132
$ 170,268,898
$ 10,500,000
$0
$0
$ 180,768,898
$ 172,042,795
-$ 10,500,000
$ 19,226,103
$ 170,268,898
$ 578,011,804
$ 126,798,449.46
$ 43,470,448.25
229,552,982.28
$ 273,023,430.53
WACC
Waighted Average Costo of Capital
Costo promedio ponderado de capital
Costo de capital
Costo de los recursos
WACC
EJEMPLO
Tasa Impto
FUENTE
BBVA
BANCOLOMBIA
BONOS
ACCIONES COMUNES
ACCIONES PREFERENCIALES
UTILIDADES RETENIDAS
33%
Costo * (1-t)
COSTO
COSTO NETO
28.00%
18.76%
29.00%
19.43%
25.00%
16.75%
27.00%
27.00%
28.50%
28.50%
29.00%
29.00%
SALDO
$ 100,000,000
$ 200,000,000
$ 300,000,000
$ 200,000,000
$ 100,000,000
$ 100,000,000
$ 1,000,000,000
NOTAS
1. Las fuentes de financiacin via terceros permiten que a su costo se le descuente la tasa de impuesto. Porque?; porque los gastos financieros bajan la b
2. Estos no se les calcula el costo neto ya que no impactan la utilidad antes de impuestos
Ejemplo del impacto de la tasa de impuestos en el costo neto de un crdtio
Deuda BBVA
$ 100,000,000
COSTO DE LA DEUDA
Gasto Financiero
$ 28,000,000
Ahorro de impto por gastos financieros
(Gastos * Tasa impto)
$ 9,240,000
INTERESES NETOS
$ 18,760,000
Tase Neta
(Intereses Netos / Deuda) * 100
18.76%
COSTO DE LA DEUDA
Ejemplo de las deudas de personas (Tarjeta de credito)
BANCOLOMBIA
Monto
Plazo
Tasa
Tasa Periodica
Cuota Manejo
$ 400,000
12
28.49% EA
#NAME?
$ 51,500 TA
CUOTA PRESTAMO
#NAME?
Periodos
0
1
2
3
4
Cuota manejo
$ 51,500
$ 51,500
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
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$ 51,500
$ 51,500
$ 100,000,000
5 Aos
20% EA
$ 300,000
$ 1,000,000
$ 500,000
#NAME?
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Desembolso Neto
$ 98,200,000
Valor presente
#NAME?
TASA SEMESTRAL
TASA ANUAL
60
FLUJOS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-950,000.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
105,500.00
1,105,500.00
11.41379%
0.117394789
FECHA
VALOR
3 de octubre de 2014
-950,000.00
15 de noviembre de 2014
95,000.00
12 de enero de 2015
98,000.00
23 de junio de 2015
55,000.00
2 de octubre de 2015
1,000,000.00
0.379987162
la covarianza es el producto de las desviaciones del titulo y las desviaciones del mercado
desviacion que tan distante esta cada rentabilidad de otra
COSTO ACCIONES PREFERENCIALES
KPS = DPS / PPS * 100
precio de compra
dividendos preferencial
10,000.00
2,100.00
KPS
21.00
costos de flotacion: son los costos en que se incurren en una nueva emision
1.144444444
1.174444444
0.03
103,000,000.00
90,000,000.00
PARTICIPACION %
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
10.00%
100.00%
SOPESADO
1.88%
3.89%
5.03%
5.40%
2.85%
2.90%
21.94%
Interpretaciones
1. el WACC de la empresa corresponde a el 21,94%
2. el costo promedio pondera de la empresa es del 21,94%
3. el costo de los recursos de financiacin de la empresa es del 21,94%
4. Por cada peso que la empresa obtiene de financiacin debe pagar 21,94
5. Todo nuevo proyecto de la compaa debera rendir por encima del 21,94
Porque?; porque los gastos financieros bajan la base sobre la cual se computan los impuestos
osto de una deuda corresponde a la tasa a la cual se igualan los flujos de pago con el valor del desembolso de la deuda
decir la tas que me permit que (Monto de la deuda - Sumatoria de la cuotas = 0) o TIR
Flujo Neto
-$ 348,500.00
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#VALUE!
#VALUE!
DEUDA
Monto
Plazo
Tasa
Estudio
Seguro
Papeleria
$ 100,000,000
5 Aos
20% EA
$ 300,000
$ 1,000,000
$ 500,000
1.53%
60
$2,559,557.26
Desembolso Neto
Valor presente
$ 98,200,000
$100,000,000.00
20.00%
DEUDA
Monto
Plazo
Tasa
Estudio
Seguro
Papeleria
Aportes
$ 100,000,000
5 Aos
20% EA
$ 300,000
$ 1,000,000
$ 500,000
$ 10,000,000
1.53%
60
$2,559,557.26
Desembolso Neto
Valor presente
$ 88,200,000
$100,000,000.00
20.00%
PERIODOS
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
VENTAS UNDS.
120,000
130,000
145,000
142,000
148,000
151,000
150,000
155,000
162,393
166,786
171,179
175,571
179,964