Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Rating
Buy
Target
| 10700
Target Period
12 months
Potential Upside
14%
| 9405
WHATS CHANGED
PRICE TARGET................................................................. Changed from | 9360 to | 10700
CY12
8,417
1,349.5
958.3
305.2
CY13E
8,641.1
1,291.0
884.7
281.8
CY14E
9,554.0
1,486.0
1,070.4
340.9
CY15E
11,180.9
1,858.7
1,392.2
443.4
CY14E
27.6
17.9
20.6
4.2
15.1
14.5
CY15E
21.2
13.8
16.0
3.6
16.9
16.7
Valuation summary(Consolidated)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
Target EV / EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)
CY12
30.8
20.1
23.1
5.3
17.2
17.1
CY13E
33.4
20.9
24.1
4.7
14.1
14.1
Stock data
Market Capitalization
Total Debt (CY13E)
Cash and Investments (CY13E)
EV
52 week H/L
Equity capital
Face value
MF Holding (%)
FII Holding (%)
| 29529.9 Crore
| 131.5 Crore
| 2642.9 Crore
| 27018.5 Crore
10599 / 8026
| 31.4 Crore
| 10
11.7
7.3
Price movement
11,000
6,400
10,000
5,800
9,000
(|)
(unit)
6,100
8,000
5,500
7,000
5,200
Mar-13
6,000
Jun-13
Sep-13
Price (R.H.S)
Dec-13
Feb-14
Nifty (L.H.S)
Analysts name
Nishant Vass
nishant.vass@icicisecurities.com
Venil Shah
venil.shah@icicisecurities.com
Q4CY13
2162.0
213.4
9.9
124.2
2.5
93.1
139.0
44.3
Q4CY13E
2266.7
318.1
14.0
110.7
0.1
120.0
224.2
71.4
Q4CY12
2131.8
266.1
12.5
129.2
5.4
113.3
172.1
54.8
Q3CY13
2149.9
326.6
15.2
89.4
0.0
86.5
234.3
74.6
QoQ (Chg %)
0.6
-34.7
-532 bps
38.9
8166.7
7.7
-40.7
-40.7
YoY (Chg %)
1.4
-19.8
-261 bps
-3.9
-54.1
-17.8
-19.2
-19.2
Exhibit 2: Assumption
CY11
Revenue (| crore)
Automotive
Non-automotive
CY12
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
7,241.4
19.2
847.4
29.1
7,726.4
6.7
979.5
15.6
7,696.6
(0.4)
1,136.4
16.0
8,470.9
10.1
1,290.4
13.6
9,915.0
17.0
1,508.4
16.9
17.3
6.8
13.3
9.1
12.9
4.9
13.9
5.7
15.4
6.7
22.2
11000
9,756
9000
(%)
(| crore)
10000
8,166
8,659
11,418
25
17.0
20
8,820
15
10.6
8000
10
7000
6000
6.0
1.9
CY12
CY13E
5000
CY11
CY14E
CY15E
% increase
27
23.7
24
(%)
improves
25.2
21
17.2
18
17.1
15
12
CY11
CY12
16.9
15.1
14.1
16.7
14.1
14.5
CY13E
CY14E
RoE
CY15E
RoCE
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research * (net of Interest & Inter segment eliminations)
Page 2
2,200
30
1,400
2,055
CY08
CY09
22.3
26
20.0
22
18
1,728
1,440
17.5
833
600
15.8
718
1,000
21.7
(%)
technical expenses
(| crore)
25.9
1,877
1,800
14
200
10
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13*
% of Sales
Page 3
35000
30000
25000
20000
(|)
15000
10000
5000
EV
20.3x
17.9x
16.2x
13.8x
13.0x
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Jan-06
May-06
11.4x
CY14E
Old
9,706.3
1,544.8
15.9
1101.3
350.7
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
PAT
EPS
CY15E
New
9756.2
1486.0
15.2
1070.4
340.9
% Change
0.5
(3.8)
-67 bps
(2.8)
(2.8)
Old
11,115.5
1,872.0
16.8
1372.4
437.1
New
11418.2
1858.7
16.3
1392.2
443.4
% Change
2.7
(0.7)
-52 bps
1.4
1.4
Exhibit 8: Valuation
CY12
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
Revenues
(| cr)
8659.1
8820.1
9756.2
11418.2
Growth
(%)
1.9
10.6
17.0
EPS
(|)
305.2
281.8
340.9
443.4
Growth
(%)
-7.7
21.0
30.1
PE
(x)
30.8
33.4
27.6
21.2
EV/EBITDA
(x)
20.1
20.9
17.9
13.8
RoNW
(%)
17.2
14.1
15.1
16.9
Page 4
RoCE
(%)
17.1
14.1
14.5
16.7
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
Raw Material Expenses
CY12
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
8,659.1
8,820.1
9,756.2
11,418.2
(| Crore)
(Year-end March)
CY12
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
958.3
884.7
1,070.4
1,392.2
6.0
1.9
10.6
17.0
Add: Depreciation
367.0
384.2
441.7
472.4
4,753.4
4,782.3
5,288.3
6,094.2
-63.7
-202.5
-252.3
-513.7
Employee Expenses
1,037.1
1,191.2
1,344.3
1,525.8
Other Expenses
1,388.8
1,555.5
1,657.6
1,961.4
-54.6
310.9
120.6
396.0
1,207.0
1,377.2
1,380.4
1,746.9
7,309.6
7,529.0
8,270.2
9,559.5
(Inc)/dec in Investments
114.9
-666.0
-260.0
-545.0
EBITDA
1,349.5
1,291.0
1,486.0
1,858.7
-735.0
-497.4
-650.0
-500.0
Growth (%)
-10.7
-4.3
15.1
25.1
Depreciation
367.0
384.2
441.7
472.4
Interest
Others
122.6
-41.8
-21.5
-45.5
-497.5
-1,205.2
-931.5
-1,090.5
5.5
2.9
1.7
0.7
369.2
352.6
478.0
580.0
1,346.2
1,256.6
1,520.6
1,965.6
0.0
0.0
110.0
0.0
Total Tax
387.9
371.9
450.2
573.4
PAT
958.3
884.7
1,070.4
1,392.2
535.7
-45.1
164.6
330.9
Growth (%)
EPS (|)
-14.6
305.2
-7.7
281.8
21.0
340.9
30.1
443.4
Opening Cash
Closing Cash
951.5
1,487.2
1,487.2
1,442.1
1,442.1
1,606.7
1,606.7
1,937.6
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
Other Income
PBT
Exceptional items
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-60.4
-53.5
-10.0
-70.0
-219.0
-200.7
-237.2
-255.5
Others
100.1
34.2
-38.8
-0.7
-179.3
-220.0
-286.1
-326.2
Balance Sheet
Key ratios
(| Crore)
(Year-end March)
CY12
CY13E
CY14E
CY15E
(Year-end March)
CY12
Liabilities
31.4
31.4
31.4
31.4
EPS
305.2
281.8
340.9
443.4
5,541.9
6,262.9
7,059.0
8,195.7
Cash EPS
422.1
404.1
481.6
593.9
BV
1,775.0
2,004.6
2,258.2
2,620.2
60.0
55.0
65.0
70.0
473.6
459.3
511.7
617.1
Equity Capital
5,573.3
6,294.3
7,090.4
8,227.1
Total Debt
185.0
131.5
121.5
51.5
251.8
290.8
340.8
374.8
6,010.1
6,716.6
7,552.7
8,653.4
EBITDA Margin
15.6
14.6
15.2
16.3
Gross Block
3,947.9
4,445.9
5,095.9
5,595.9
16.0
14.5
15.9
17.6
Total Liabilities
Assets
DPS
Cash Per Share
Operating Ratios (%)
3,084.6
3,469.5
3,911.1
4,383.6
PAT Margin
11.1
10.0
11.0
12.2
Net Block
863.3
976.4
1,184.8
1,212.3
Inventory days
47.5
51.0
47.0
46.0
Capital WIP
417.1
417.1
417.1
417.1
Debtor days
40.3
45.0
42.0
42.0
44.3
45.3
45.5
45.5
16.9
1,280.4
1,393.5
1,601.9
1,629.4
Creditor days
Investments
1,519.8
2,185.8
2,445.8
2,990.8
Inventory
1,095.7
1,207.3
1,230.2
1,409.1
RoE
17.2
14.1
15.1
Debtors
1,021.0
1,073.4
1,191.0
1,393.8
RoCE
17.1
14.1
14.5
16.7
878.7
913.3
1,009.8
1,114.7
RoIC
24.3
19.2
19.7
23.1
140.3
144.3
159.5
186.7
Cash
1,487.2
1,442.1
1,606.7
1,937.6
P/E
30.8
33.4
27.6
21.2
4,622.9
4,780.3
5,197.2
6,041.9
EV / EBITDA
20.1
20.9
17.9
13.8
Creditors
930.4
1,064.6
1,099.4
1,286.6
EV / Net Sales
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.3
Provisions
506.5
473.1
488.5
571.7
3.5
3.4
3.1
2.6
456.9
666.9
737.4
863.0
5.3
4.7
4.2
3.6
1,893.8
2,204.7
2,325.3
2,721.3
Solvency Ratios
2,729.1
2,575.7
2,871.9
3,320.6
Debt/Equity
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
255.2
225.6
6,010.1
298.9
262.7
6,716.6
342.6
290.5
7,552.7
372.6
339.9
8,653.4
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
2.4
1.9
2.2
1.6
2.2
1.7
2.2
1.7
Page 5
Company Description
Bosch is a leading supplier of technology and services in the areas of
automotive and industrial technology, consumer goods and building
technology. In India, Bosch Ltd is the flagship company of the Bosch
Group and is a leading global supplier of technology & services. The
Bosch Group is a leading global supplier of technology and services and
comprises Robert Bosch GmbH and ~360 subsidiaries and regional
companies in ~50 countries with ~77,000 patents and utility models to its
name. Bosch Ltd also has among the largest distribution networks of
spare parts in the country with after-market sales contributing ~25% of its
turnover. It has plants spread across Nashik, Pune, Ahmedabad, Jaipur,
Goa, Bangalore, Coimbatore and Chennai, which are close to its major
clients. Bosch also has a strong dealer network, which spans ~1000
towns across the country, facilitating product availability and after-sales
services.
Exhibit 9: Recommendation History
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
Apr-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Price
Oct-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Target Price
Event
Initiating Coverage
Q3CY13 Result Update
Q4CY13 Preview
CMP
8586
8816
9865
Target Price
9360
9360
9360
Rating
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
Page 6
EPS (|)
CMP
M Cap
(|)
TP(|) Rating
(| Cr) FY13 FY14E FY15E
395
380 Hold
6,747 16.8 22.3 24.6
133
139 Hold
6,704 12.2 18.6 18.5
16
15 Hold
4,164 -1.5
0.2
0.7
1,943 2,450
Buy 56,225 105.2 115.9 139.5
385
350 Hold
3,722 37.6 50.2 50.7
382
362 Hold
8,908 10.6 15.4 24.7
5,140 5,400 Hold 13,883 145.5 240.9 312.2
115
85
Sell
1,373 14.1 15.5 17.1
111
90
Sell
9,427
6.1
5.2
5.5
1,964 2,100 Hold 39,221 106.1 104.7 136.1
137
174
Buy
563 63.1 90.4 91.3
973 1,033 Hold 57,438 59.8 67.4 94.3
1,592 1,663 Hold 48,110 79.2 91.5 117.0
232
239 Hold 20,425
8.0 12.2 15.0
416
475
Buy 123,727 31.0 44.7 52.7
9,450 10,700
Buy 29,673 281.8 340.9 443.4
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E
23.5 17.7 16.1 12.0 9.6
8.4
10.9
7.1 7.2
4.0 3.8
3.5
-10.2 77.3 21.6 202.5 12.6
7.8
18.5 16.8 13.9 14.3 14.3 11.6
8.8
6.6 6.6
7.4 6.1
5.5
36.0 24.9 15.5 12.3 9.5
6.9
35.3 21.3 16.5 21.4 10.7
7.0
6.8
6.2 5.6
3.5 3.1
2.5
18.0 21.2 20.3 11.0 11.4 10.9
18.5 18.8 14.4 11.0 12.1 11.0
2.2
1.5 1.5
3.1 2.9
2.8
16.3 14.4 10.3 10.1 8.6
7.5
20.1 17.4 13.6 10.1 8.0
6.4
28.8 19.0 15.5
8.5 6.7
5.1
11.7
8.2 6.9
4.7 3.5
3.4
32.9 27.2 20.9 20.6 17.6 13.6
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E
33.6 36.2 32.4 27.1 27.8 24.7
22.5 20.1 18.8 21.8 18.0 17.2
-4.0 3.2 7.5 -10.3
1.4
4.9
43.5 43.5 41.6 38.5 35.1 34.9
16.2 16.4 14.4 25.5 16.2 16.4
9.1 12.4 17.9 11.0 14.0 19.0
18.0 23.0 26.5 19.1 25.1 25.6
9.9 11.2 10.8
9.4
9.6
9.7
19.6 16.7 15.7 15.3 12.0 11.6
42.8 39.7 42.9 42.3 33.9 35.2
20.2 19.9 17.5 23.4 25.4 20.4
20.9 20.8 18.7 22.0 20.8 23.5
11.9 14.3 15.6 12.9 13.1 14.6
22.0 26.1 30.0 26.3 32.4 32.2
23.2 23.8 23.5 26.3 26.5 25.8
14.1 15.1 16.9 14.1 14.5 16.7
BSE Auto
Escorts
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
BSE Auto
Tata Motors
Hero MotoCorp
Sep-13
Bajaj
M&M
Ashok Leyland
Nov-13
Jan-14
Maruti
Escorts
Eicher Motors
BSE Auto
index
Motherson Sumi
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
BSE Auto
Bharat Forge
Balkrishna
JK Tyres
Apollo Tyres
Motherson
Exide Inds
Amara raja
Page 7
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading
underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of
companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities
generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts
cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and
employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities
from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities
policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This
report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their
receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific
circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate
the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any
loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the
risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to
change without notice.
ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received
compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Nishant Vass MBA(FINANCE) Venil Shah MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received
any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include
earnings from Investment Banking and other business.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the
research report.
It is confirmed that Nishant Vass MBA(FINANCE) Venil Shah MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board
member of the companies mentioned in the report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use
of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof.
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publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and
to observe such restriction.
Page 8