Real Time Optimization with Predictive Control

has not realized its Potential

Charles R. Cutler, PhD

What is Real Time Optimization

Real Time Optimization (RTO) is the optimization of a
process using a non linear mathematic model that has been
updated in real time.
The objective function of the RTO is economics.
The RTO model is a steady state model, so the first step in
the sequence of operations is to bring the process to steady
state.
At steady state the parameters in the non linear
mathematical model are update to match the observed
conditions in the process.
2

What is Real Time Optimization

The RTO model with the updated parameters is used to
find a new economic optimum from where the process is
currently located.
The solution of the RTO is given to a Model Predictive
Controller (MPC).
The MPC moves the process to steady state at the
conditions specified by the RTO.

The MPC accomplishes its objective by setting the valve

and setpoints of the individual single input single output
controllers in the basic DCS system.
3

What is Model Predictive Control

A MPC contains a comprehensive dynamic model of the
process based on linear differential equations.

The controller maintains a prediction of where the process

will go in the future based on the past history of changes in
the independent variables.
With new measurements the predictions are corrected.
The controller eliminates the error between where an
optimizer wants to go and the prediction.

The optimizer may be internal or from an RTO.

4

Overview
We will review where we are in the evolution of real
time optimization in the process industries.

We will talk about the connection between real time

optimization and constrained multivariable control.
We will discuss the features a controller must have to
support real time optimization.
We will outline the requirements of identification
software for finding the dynamic model of the
process.

The current technology is adequate to make money, so why

are the number of RTO applications subsiding.
5

Overview
We will discuss operator training for a process that is
being controlled and optimized in real time.
We will talk about the technical requirements for a control
engineer supporting an RTO system.
Further, the control engineer needs to understand his
responsibilities in the political realm of selling the value of
his efforts to his company.
We will concluded with the management problems
associated with handling the engineers who maintain the
RTO and control systems.

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

The great enthusiasm of mid 1960s for real time
optimization gave way to frustration in the 1970s.
Most of the early real time optimization projects failed
for one or more reasons.
Computers were slow, not reliable, and were difficult to
program.
Modeling tools were inadequate, i.e. only sequential
modular models (closed models) were used.
Some people used only regression models rather than
first principle engineering models.
7

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

Many people did not provide feed back from the process
measurements to update the parameters in their models.

The control tool of the time was some variation of the

PID algorithm which was inadequate for control at a
large number of constraints.
Inordinate numbers of highly skilled modeling and
control engineers were required to maintain the real
time optimization and control systems that solved the
preceding problems.
The good news from the early experiences with real
time optimization was the potential profit was high if
the problems could be solved.
8

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

Hardware technology continued to evolve, producing
faster and more reliable computers.

Open equation modeling techniques were developed to

solve large problems with internal recycle loops.

An open equation is one in which the dependent variable is

moved to the other side of the equation so the equation is
satisfied when it equals zero.

For example F(X)= 0 for all the equations.

Commercial software came available to converge all the

equations to zero.
9

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

There are a number of advantages of using the open
equation method as opposed to the traditional sequential
modular method (SQM).
SQM required a variables value to be defined prior to its
use in a following equation.
The result was cascades of calculations that required
elaborate convergence techniques.
SQM required the equations in the model to be rewritten
to calculate the parameter in the model, i.e. heat transfer
and pressure drop coefficients, kinetic rate constants, etc.
10

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

The equations in the open model do not change.

A set of pointers permitted the same equations to be used

to update the parameters in the models and another set of
pointers to calculate the derivatives for the optimization.
The long term maintenance of the open equation models
was greatly reduced by only having one version of the
model with which to work.
Further, the open equation model solved many times faster
and more reliably than the SQM
11

Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Controller (MPC) was conceived to
control a process at a large number of constraints.
MPC contains a prediction of where the dependent
variables will go in the future if no further changes occur
in the independent manipulated variables.

The prediction is based on a model of the process that

relates the change in time of each of the dependent
variables to a change in each of the independent variables.
The knowledge of where the dependent variable constraints
are relative to the predicted path of the variable permits
close control at the constraints.
12

More Reliable Hardware

Hardware technology continued to evolve, producing
faster and more reliable computers and communication
devices.
The develop of the Digital Control Systems (DCS) that did
the analog to digital conversion simplified the task
implementing a computer control system.
16, 21, and 24 bit computers were replace with 32 bit ones.
The additional direct address space made it possible to
build larger contiguous programs and improve the overall
accuracy of the calculations.
13

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

By the early 1980s some people were successfully
optimizing and controlling large process units in real
time.
By the early 1990s commercial software was available
to solve the real time optimization and multivariable
control problems.

Open equation models with over 200,000 equations were

being solved and multivariable controllers with 40
manipulated variables and 60 control variables were
being used.
Many of these optimization and control projects
proved to be very profitable with payout times measured
in months.
14

Where We are Today with RTO

Conventional wisdom of the time was: the failure of an
optimization and control project could be traced to
personnel problems or to management problems.
Today only a small fraction of the potential applications
of RTO have been implemented.

A few companies have moved against the general trend

and continue to apply RTO and MPC.
These companies treat their knowledge of RTO as highly
confidential and do not publish

What has happened in the last 20 years to change the

general view of RTO?
15

The Best Engineers are Required for Success

Probably the most critical change has been the number
and experience of the personnel on the technical support
teams for the RTO and MPC.
The problem starts with the over zealous selling by the
marketing personnel of the RTO software companies.

They have minimized the need for the number of high

quality experienced engineers required to maintain the
RTO system after it is installed.
The technical support team must know the models in the
RTO and MPC as well as the people who developed them.
16

The Evolution of RTO in the Process Industries

The trend in most companies in the USA and Europe has
been to reduce engineering staff to a minimum.
The idea of putting three engineers maintaining a large
RTO system is not consistent with minimizing staff.
One engineer should be monitoring the optimization
system, one following the control system, and one training.
If management understood the amount of money they are
leaving on the table, the RTO and MPC engineers would
be the very last people they would eliminate.

17

Status of Real Time Optimization and

Constrained Multivariable Control
For a linear system, all the degrees of freedom for the
optimization will be tied up at some set of constraints.

For non-linear systems, experience has shown that over 90

percent of the degrees of freedom will be tied up at
constraints.
Constrained Multivariable Control (MPC) is required if
the results of the RTO are to be achieved.
To hold a process at multiple constraints requires that all
the dynamic interactions be accurately described.
Traditional PID control has proven inadequate for large
multivariable problems.
18

Status of Real Time Optimization and

Constrained Multivariable Control
The degrees of freedom (manipulated variables) from a control point of
view are the handles an operator can use, i.e. PID setpoints, valve positions,
manual loading stations.
For a linear system, the number of possible permutations of
constraints, grouping them by the number of degrees of freedom,
is given by:

_
(number of limits on variables) !_________
(degrees of freedom) ! * (number of limits degrees of freedom) !
Where the constraints are the upper and lower limits on both the
manipulated variables and controlled variables.
For a controller with 25 manipulated and 40 controlled variables, with only
one limit on a variable, there are 6.5 * 10 to the 17th possible combinations
of constraints.
19

The Best Engineers are Required for Success

The qualified support engineer must be a good process
engineer, instrument engineer, advanced control engineer,
and an engineer familiar with optimization techniques and
the software being used.
In effect, the best engineers in the company are required to
assure success from an RTO system.
It is not the place to put new engineers!
The application of RTO and MPC is where the rubber
meets the road.

20

RTO tests the quality of the controllers models

The quality of the model in the RTO is continuously tested
by comparing the predicted steady state solution with the
steady state achieved.
Traditional off-line use of a steady state model does not
provide a continuous comparison of a models prediction
with its performance.

The controllers model is tested by its ability to quickly

move the process to a new operating point in a stable non
oscillatory manner.
If either the controllers dynamic model or the RTOs
steady state model are not correct, the controller will tend
to be unstable.
21

The Best Engineers are Required for Success

The models in the RTO should be the repository of a
companies best technology and operating experience.
With the best engineers, a companies best technology, and
an optimum way of applying it, the equipment will yield
the maximum benefits.
The problem here is most of the people in senior
management positions do not understand the potential.
This is not unexpected since in the race to develop young
engineers into managers, there is not time to spend four or
five years doing optimization and control work.
22

The Best Engineers are Required for Success

The RTO and MPC engineers are like the special forces in
the armed services, only the best should be considered.
In addition to the special technical skills required by the
RTO engineer , the role of the RTO on his/her unit in the
context of the entire plant operation must be understood.
The RTO engineer should report to the manager of
operations for the process for which he is associated.
The RTO/MPC engineer can effectively replace the
technical support engineer for the day to day operation.

23

Optimizers are not Utilized Effectively

The costs in the optimizers in either the RTO or MPC are
not updated for most applications.

The problem many times is there is conflict between the

tools used by the Economics and Scheduling people and the
tools of the control engineer.
When the prices determined by E&S are put in the
optimizer, the controller may not go where they expected.
The cost in the optimizer are adjusted to control at
the constraints expect by Operations and E and S.

Unfortunately, the criterion being used may be the

maximum production of a given product that is not the
best economic operation.
24

Tools for Determining Cost must be Consistent

Arbitrary cost are put in the optimizers.

The optimization engineer probably does not have the

knowledge and experience to present the case for the
optimizer.
The operations management and the E&S management do
not understand the optimization system in the control
computer, which is usually far superior to their tools.
Since management dominates, arbitrary prices are used in
the optimizer to make the optimizer and controller do
what they want.
25

Some Companies only use the LP in the Controller

rather than an RTO
The rationalization for only using the LP is that the
process is linear in the region of operation.
The accuracy of the gains in the controller model are as
good as or better than the RTO model.

The controller model is easier to maintain and specific

models that are in question can be checked by doing a
short test on the unit.
The problem of integrating the RTO and the controller is
avoided.
26

The Problems associated with using the Controllers

LP rather than the RTO
Process is very non linear which prevents LP model from
being used effectively.
Component analysis from analyzer may not exist or is not
reliable.
A first principle model can predict the effect of the
independent variables on the composition.
Similarly the correct effect of the independent
variables on high purity distillation is possible with
a first principle model.
Cost analysis depends on having the correct effect on
compositions.
27

Optimization and Control are Viewed as Mature

A few important developments have occurred in the last 20
years, but are not widely used since the control and
optimization software are viewed as mature.
Software is now available that allows the optimizer to solve
with the control valves completely open, which effectively
increases the size of the unit.

Although commercial optimization and control software

has been available since 1990, many people are not
connecting them properly
One question is whether to turn the optimizer in the
controller off when the RTO is writing set points to the
controller.
28

The Degrees of Freedom for MPC is set by RTO

The multivariable controller for an RTO will in general
have many more controlled variables than manipulated
variables.
Each control variable can operate between an upper
limit and a lower limit; for a set point, the two limits
are set to the same value.

The connection between the RTO and the controller is

made when the RTO specifies its active constraints as
set points for the controller.
The local optimizer in the controller is turned off
when the RTO writes the set points down to the
controller, if all or most of the degrees of freedom are set
by the RTO.
29

The Degrees of Freedom for MPC is set by RTO

If the RTO only sets a few constraints in the controller,
then the optimizer in the controller is left on.
The issue is one of stability and feasibility.
Over specifying the constraints in the controller by the
RTO will cause infeasibilities in the controllers optimizer.
The model in the RTO is non linear while the controller
model is linear which may cause infeasibility.
The RTO and MPC engineers will have to decide how
many constraints to set in the controller and whether to
turn the optimizer off in the controller.
30

Personnel Required for Maintenance

The maintenance problems for real time optimization
systems are greater than those for multivariable control.

Many times a good technician can maintain a control

system, since the problems that occur are usually
associated with bad inputs or mechanical problems that
are fixed by craftsmen in the plant.
The engineer maintaining the real time optimization
system must know the model equations as well as the
people who developed the original models, he must
know how the optimization software fits into the
computer operating system and how the optimization
solution is integrated into the control system.
31

Personnel Required for Maintenance

To build and maintain real time optimization systems
requires the best engineers in a company, i.e. the top
20 percent from a technical point of view.
An engineer supporting an RTO system, must be an
outstanding process engineer, instrument engineer, control
engineer, and computer analyst.
A person with these skills is usually a good management
prospect.

Most engineers with high potential are not willing to

sacrifice the money and prestige associated with moving up
the corporate ladder.
32

Personnel Required for Maintenance

To reap the benefits of RTO, management must first
understand the potential value of RTO and second the
problems associated with maintaining the systems.
To keep highly skilled people supporting the RTO systems,
the reward structure must be changed.
In the last 20 years too many engineers have viewed an
RTO career as a dead end street.
It has become apparent to me that most large corporation
are not organized to maintain large scale RTO systems.

33

Personnel Required for Maintenance

Re-engineering of the technical work force have most
plants operating with skeleton crews of technical people.
Without management understanding the potential of RTO,
minimizing the manpower dedicated to it was an easy
decision.

RTO and MPC will add 5 to 10 percent to the value added

by the plant.
The plant must be operated at 70 to 80 percent
of design capacity to pay for the cost of capital.

34

Personnel Required for Maintenance

The 5 to 10 percent increase in value added from RTO and
MPC is relative to the last 20 to 30 percent when looking
for opportunities to improve profitability.
Unless the senior management of a corporation is willing to
add technical people and change the culture in their
company, RTO will not succeed in the long term.
A second choice is to contract the maintenance out to
companies who specialize in modeling, simulation, and
control.

This choice is not desirable, since it would demoralize the

company engineers current working in the field.

35

Summary
Maintenance requirements for RTO have been grossly
misrepresented by RTO salesman.
This misrepresentation is not due to dishonesty on
the part of the salesman, but rather a lack of
understanding.
The successful support of an RTO system requires
the best technical people in a company.
An RTO system brings together the right tools and
people to get the maximum benefit from the process
equipment in the scope of the RTO.
36

Summary
When properly supported, the RTO system can be a
significant contributor to bottom line of a company

The technology has evolved to the point where technology

is not a major consideration.
The major technical question that can cause problems is
the choice of how many degrees of freedom to tie up with
the RTO and whether to let the controllers optimizer
continue to run.
The remainder of the problems with the successful use of
the RTO technology involves educating management, so
they can make the right decisions.
37

What Needs to be Done

Marketing personnel from the companies that provide the
software for RTO need to understand the very demanding
requirements for the engineers maintaining RTO.
The people marketing RTO should have experience
working on RTO projects so they do not minimize the
maintenance requirements.
Engineers involved in the maintenance of RTO systems are
the ones who must educate their management.

RTO engineers must be aggressive in obtaining economic

values for their optimizers.
38

What Needs to be Done

RTO engineers should produce reports which emphasize
the value being added by their RTO system.

Included in the reports should be the identification of the

active constraints and the shadow price on each of these
constraints.
The shadow prices will illustrate the value of pushing the
right constraints.
The cost put into the optimizer must be correct, if the
shadow prices are to be valid.
The shadow prices on the constraints should be put on the
operators console for managers to see.
39

What Needs to be Done

RTO engineers should press their management to allow
them to publish their success.
Writing a paper and requesting it to be published brings
the value of the RTO system to managements attention,
even when publishing is rejected.
Traditionally, control engineers have received their
psychological reward from the technical success of a
project.
Management is primarily interested in the bottom line and
not technological success.
RTO/control engineers need to make their economic value
to their company known.
40

What Needs to be Done

Academics should be brought into the picture by offering
an advanced control course that teaches RTO and
predictive multivariable control.
Companies who market RTO software should permit
universities to use their software.

Such a course would attract many engineers who are

interested in a technical career rather than a management
career.
RTO and control brings together all of the engineering
principals taught in the university and applies them in an
optimum way.
41