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Market Timing Preview

For

Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth


Preservation

Moderator:
Online Trading Academy
John ODonnell, CKO

3 Key Elements To Success


The Three Key Elements in any
investment strategy are:
Core
Strategy

Probability
Risk
Leverage

Futures
Forex
Options
Most novice traders have this list in
reverse order!
Online Trading Academy 2013

What Is Inflation? What is Deflation?

New York Grad Testimonial


My name is Damen D, I came to the Online Trading Academy after suffering a tremendous loss
due to hurricane and to make matters worse during the recovery effort I suffered a major back
injury. Im a professional race car/ fabricator technician specializing in high end super cars. My
business was destroyed and more damaging was that I would no longer be able to earn the
nice living I had been accustomed to because of my injury. My father one day was in the mall
and just so happen to sign up for a market timing class knowing that I have always liked the
market and when I was 18 started to study for my series 7 test but drifted away and went
onto pro racing. At that time I was home basically nursing a injury and at the same time
depressed that I had lost everything I had known and loved for so long. My father called me
and "said I'm taking you to a class I have a plus one and think you should attend". I attended
market timing and instantly knew this school was the real deal. At that time I did not have the
money to purchase a package so my father put it on a credit card in good faith that I would
comprehend the course material and be able to pay him back. Long story short I started with
pro trader then went onto futures classes. I have all asset classes since I bought the total
solution but my main focus is the futures at this time. My teachers have been phenomenal
starting with my coach Gabi Golan, Jeff Sacks and Eric Benson along with my pro trader
teacher being Chris Manson. My future teachers have been Bob Dunn, Craig Wehls and Jossip
Causic. These guy have changed my life along with watching videos of Sam Seiden. I have
gone through loosing money and having no confidence in my ability to invest in the markets to
having 3 losing days in 4 weeks. That's a incredible transformation! I have now since in the
last 8 months gone from no direction in life to learning a amazing technique and co re strategy
that has changed my life and my families lifes. I am almost completely debt free including 30k
in tuition alone. I recommend this program to anyone that has a interest in the markets and is
willing to put the time in to learn there strategy and curriculum. I owe a lot to these guys in
the OTA and my father for being able to change my lifes direction and be a consistently
profitable trader day in day out. Thank you Online Trading AcademyJune, 2014

Intense scrutiny on market structure turns to payment for order flow (PFOF). Yesterday, Charles Schwab spoke out vehemently against high
frequency trading (HFT), sustaining the intensity of the debate on HFT and market structure overall. And it appears with the spotlight on
rebates/maker-taker model, the market's focus turned to payment for order flow (PFOF) of the eBrokers. The two eBrokerage stocks that we
suspect have the highest exposure, AMTD and ETFC, were down 5.3% and 6.5%, respectively. SCHW, which we suspect has the lowest as a
percentage of PFOF to total revenues, was only down 1.9%.
eBroker PFOF Summary ($ in mm)
Source: company documents and Sandler O'Neill
(A) ETFC actual FY13 Order Flow Revenue
(1) Sandler O'Neill estimate of Payment for Order Flow Revenue for SCHW
(2) Sandler O'Neill estimate of Payment for Order Flow Revenue for AMTD is a range of 15%-17.5% of total net revenues
But stocks appear to be pricing in PFOF is going away, which may or may not be true. eBrokers state that PFOF helps them to offer low
commission rates and superior execution to their retail customers. AMTD reports that its clients received price improvement on ~90% of all
marketable and limit order trades (100-1,900 shares) in 2013. SCHW reported similar if not higher percentages of price improved trades.
Therefore, while we suspect PFOF will be part of the comprehensive, holistic review of market structure the SEC is committed to doing, there are
no guarantees a complete overhaul or even a partial overhaul of the PFOF system will be mandated. Therefore, given the decline in the
eBrokerage stocks yesterday, we believe they have reasonably priced in their probability weighted exposure to PFOF regulation.
Even with Chuck's letter, SCHW does not intend to forego PFOF. In discussions with SCHW, they believe HFTs more or less interact with all the
flow out there, so it may not be possible to avoid them. Their primary concern with order routing is to provide the best execution for their clients.
SCHW makes a distinction between market making/wholesaling and HFT, which they believe is more a proprietary trading strategy

The Japan Debt Bomb Is Coming

HFTers Rule Messaging

Keynes Model Spend in Red, Actual in Blue

Do They Ring A Bell At The Tops of Markets?

What Motivated You To Come Today?


1. Supplement Income
2. Primary Income
3. Wealth Preservation/ Growth
4. Broker Incompetence
5. Loss Recovery
6. Job Security

7. Financial Freedom

OTA Market Timing


For Short Term Income and Long Term
Wealth Preservation
4 Days Market Timing Classes

Market Timing Rule Based Strategy


- This is how you make money.
Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options
- Which market/s are right for you?
Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames
One On One trading plan sessions in the class with your
Education Counselor
Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention
Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member

America the Beautiful


S&P 500
1975-2000

Could you buy and hold in this market?


Did you need to be educated in this market?
Did you need to actively manage this market?

USA Stock vs Global Commodities

Mutual Fund Founder Exposes Funds

John Bogle: Vanguard Founder


Exposes fund returns.

John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, exposes managed funds. Assuming a historic 10% annual market return, lets look at how the investor would make out.
With an initial investment of $10,000 for 50 years at a 10% annual return, the investor would grow his account to $1,170,000. However if you take out fund
fees of 2% a year it leaves the investor with only $470,000. what a difference paying someone 2% can make!

John Bogle: Vanguard Founder


Invest $10,000 for 50 years @ 10% per year. Investor return = $1,170,000.00
Take out 2% per year for fees. Investor return = only $470,000
Investor supplies 100% of Capital. Fund Industry keeps $700,000
Investor keeps only $470,000

Knowing this now, would you make this investment today.


7/14/2014

Not so wise investments


Interview with John C. Bogle Conducted
on February 7, 2006.

So if I do your average, what percentage of my net


growth is going to fees in a 401(k) plan?
Now, the financial system -- the mutual fund system in
this
Well,
case
it's--awesome.
will take about
Let me
two
give
and
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outThe
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andthe
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That
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upher
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and
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and
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got almost
at the80
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the
thatreturn,
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andearn
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that
in $1,000
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grow
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that
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65-year period
lifetime,
to around
put up 100
$140,000.
percent of the capital,
took 100 percent of the risk, and got only a little bit over
20 percent of the return.

@85 $148,780
@85 $32,465
After Fees
@65 $31,920

@65 $11,127

New Normal Markets?

S&P 500
2000-2013

Our Grads
knew a crash
was likely

ARE YOU
READY?

Who believes buy & hold will work in this market?


How are mutual funds working in this market?
Who knew that they can make money as the market falls?
How many expect your losses to rebound by doing the
same thing?

Worse than 2008 AND Europe?


Yahoo Finance
July 18, 2012

Stimulus programs can delay


this day of reckoning but
only for so long and only at
the expense of making the
eventual meltdown much
worse.

Weve got a much bigger


collapse coming and not just
of the market but of the
economy

The easiest way to put it is


that everything you dont
think could possibly happen
in America will come to be.

The Illusion of News..

The banks & institutions are playing a


game to which the novices don't even
know the rules; and most don't even
know the game exists.

Whose Money is Really Made & Lost in the Markets?

The financial markets consist of buying and selling


among and between two groups
Institutions/Banks (very profitable)
&
Retail Traders/Investors (Struggle for Profits or Lose)
Learn To Think and
Act Like an
Institution

Institutional 10K Filing


Goldman Sachs own 10K filing for
2011, released in May of 2012

2011 Results

237 Profitable days


15 Losing days

54 days (21%) of
the time they
made over 100
Million Dollars

Goldman's Trading Losses only


reached close to their limit one
day in 2011 without breaking the
limit

Institutional Trading Profits


Bloomberg
May 10, 2012

Goldman Sachs generated 57% of


revenue from trading in the first
quarter and had only one day of
loss in that quarter, down from 17
during the preceding 3 months.
Morgan Stanley said its traders lost
money 4 days in the period. Bank
of America reported that it had
trading profits every day of the
period
Goldman's Trading Losses never
exceeded its value at risk limit

How Institutions Handle Risk


2011 VaR
(Value at Risk)

S&P 500

Institutions take on
more risk in a down
market. Retail
trader panic and
take less risk

Our Students
Learn to think like
an institution

Who Really Makes The Money?


Conventional Thinking OR REAL Profitable Thinking
Supply (retail)

Sold
Bought
Demand (wholesale)
Head and Shoulders Top
Double Bottom
Earnings Report
Trend Lines
Support and Resistance
News
Indicators
Cup and Handle

RSI
Pivot Points
Stochastics
Broker Upgrade
MACD
Bollinger Bands
Dow Theory
Fibonacci

Profit: $5,918.42
This is how you make money
buying and selling anything.
32

OTA Student Success

I quit my job

I make more money trading than I make at work!

Your Brain Is Playing Tricks!!


Trading Market

How you make


money buying and
selling anything in
life is EXACTLY how
you make money
trading!

Samsung 55
LED TV

Demand

Would You Buy Here?

Would You Buy Here?

No, price is crashing

Yes, the TV is on sale

No, this is a downtrend

Yes, quickly before


price goes up

No, the news is bad


No, buying is too high risk

No, I am scared, nervous!

Bought

Yes, I would buy a few


of them at these prices!

Market Timing with XLT


Two Most Important Components To Trading
Supply and Demand

Human Emotion

1) Where do market prices turn?

Demand (support): A price level in a market where willing


demand exceeds willing supply.
Supply (resistance): A price level in a market where willing
supply exceeds willing demand.
2) Who is on the other side of your trade, a Pro or Novice trader?
Human Emotion: The emotions of fear and greed are clearly
seen on a price chart, if you know what your looking for.

Supply & Demand Zones Chart


Where and why do market prices change direction?
The Logic:

Supply

Why did price


have to decline?
Why did price
have to rise?
Demand

The origin of motion /


change in price is an
equation where one of two
competing forces (buyers
and sellers) becomes zero
at a specific price.

The origin of a move in price


is where supply and demand
are out of balance. This is
where we find low risk /
high reward / high
probability entry points into
markets.

Supply & Demand Zones Chart


Who is on the other side of your trade?
Supply
(retail)

Who is buying
here?

Who is selling
here?
Demand
(wholesale)
The Logic:
The amateur/novice trader buys at retail prices and sells at wholesale prices.
The professional trader simply trades with amateurs

Think Like A Pro!

Supply & Demand Zones Chart


Supply

Sell at Retail prices

Low Risk Profit: 978.98

Demand

Buy at Wholesale prices

OTA Market Timing


For

Short Term Income

Investor Uncertainty
USA Today

June 13, 2012

61% of investors realize


they need to improve
their understanding of
income investing.
Just a 3% inflation rate
over 25 years can reduce
their purchasing power by
half
46% of investors are
considering a later
retirement, up 30% from
a year ago

Live XLT Trading Session Nov. 5, 2012

XLT Supply Zone

12 Point
Decline

Market Timing Nov. 5, 2012


$600.00
Profit in Minutes

Trade Like An Institution/Bank

Live Trading With Grads


XLT Trading
July 16, 2012

The Setup
The Result

XLT Buying

OTA Demand
(Institutions
Buying)

Live Trading With Grads


Supply & Demand Levels
May 31, 2012

Low Risk Day Trading Profit

$937.50

MC Demand Zone
(Institution Buy Orders)

Low Risk Entry

Pro Picks May 7, 2012


The Setup

XLT Trader Profit:


$1,662.00
The Result

Pro Pick Profit: $638.00

The Profit

Supply & Demand on a Chart


Supply
(Retail)
Amateur buyers
(my short entry)

XLT Odds Enhancers


1) How did price leave the level?
2) How much time did price spend at
the level?
Price charts contain all the
information you need, if you know
what your looking for.

Low Risk Profit: $2,313.20

Live Trading With Grads


MSFT Buying Opportunity
Pre Planning Trades Live in XLT

The Setup

47

XLT Stock: January 11th, 2012


The Result
MSFT Rallies over
$0.40 over the next
hour.

Novice Traders Sell

OTA Traders Learn


to Buy

Those who know what they are


doing, get paid from those who
dont.
48

XLT Stock Trading

Pre Planning Trades

Rule Based Trading


49

XLT Futures: January 24th, 2012


The
Setup

Students are
instructed to
BUY

XLT Demand

Rule Based Trading Live in XLT


50

XLT Futures: January 24th, 2012


Live XLT Session: January 24th, 2012

The Result

XLT Students (and institutions)


BUY
Novice Retail Sellers
SELL

Rule Based Trading Live in XLT


51

XLT Forex May 5, 2012


XLT Student Success

XLT Student Profit:


$1,200 In Minutes

Watch Instructor Trade Live

XLT
Demand Zone

Students Buy

Trading With Banks


The Setup July 2nd 2012

The Result

XLT Supply
XLT Demand

Good news causes novice retail


traders to BUY, this is a trap when
that buying is at a price where
banks are selling (Supply)

Euro Gap up on good


news
(Retail traders buy)
(XLT Traders Sell)

Target
Reached

OTA Market Timing


Institution
Bank
Supply

Sold Short To
Novice Buyer

Day Trade
Profit: $955.00

Not Supply

Trading is simply a transfer of accounts from those


who dont know what they're doing, into the
accounts of those who do

The Bear Trap


The Setup
NASDAQ Futures 7/16/12

The Result

Trap

XLT Demand

Globex Low
XLT
Entry (Buy)

55

Student Success 4/10/12


April 10, 2012 Create Your Own Income and Future

Earns at least $4,000 per week

OTA Market Timing


For

Long Term Wealth

Family Net Worth Falls 40%


The Wall Street Journal
June 11, 2012

Families net worth fell


almost 40% between
2007 and 2010, down to
levels last seen in 1992,
the Fed said.

Between 2007 and 2010,


incomes also dropped
sharply
Families also grew less
confident about how
much income they could
expect in the future

March 2009 Performance


S&P Monthly Chart The Bottom
2009 Market Bottom Call Live in
XLT

Foreclosures at all time highs


651,000 jobs lost in Feb 2009
Annual job losses worst since 1945
AIG disaster

S&P Monthly Chart The Rally

S&P Rallies over 600 points.


Rule Based Market Timing

Student Success 10/1/2012


Account Size: $721,521.50. Gain: 24% in one month

Sep. 2012
Realized Gain:
$173,000

Sep. 2012
Unrealized Gain:
$125,000

Putting OTA Tools To


Work

OTA Market Timing


+ OTA Options
Consistent Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth

Barrons/Wall Street Journal, Tues. March 15


Barrons/Wall Street Journal
Interview With Sam Seiden

S&P Daily Chart

Demand Zones

Stock market was down hundreds


during interview. News out of Japan
was very bad, our strategy said buy.

Barrons/Wall Street Journal, Tues. March 15


Barrons/Wall Street Journal
Interview With Sam Seiden

S&P Daily Chart

Demand Zone

The Dow then rallied over 800 points


from that news driven sell off.

2011 Performance
2011 Market Top Call Live in XLT
S&P Weekly Chart The Top

S&P Daily Chart The Decline

S&P Falls 290 points in about 2


weeks.
We Saw it coming, did you?
Very Strong Q2 Earnings

Rule Based Market Timing


Market Top Called
April 3, 2012

2012
Market Top
April 3, 2012

Rest of Industry calls


calls bear market
May 18, 2012

NASDAQ

Falls Over 300 Points


From Our Supply Level

Late!
After the market falls!

Student Success

I have covered the entire cost of


my OTA program 6+ fold in 5
months of trading just options.

Who is Online Trading Academy?


16 Years
and 37,500
Graduates
Where We StartedWhere We Are

26 U.S. and 7
International
Locations

Partnered with
Industry
Leaders

They Did The Research For You


NASDAQ PRESS RELEASE
"Online Trading Academy is the premier independent educational resource for the
active trading community. They are really more than just an online content
provider, they are a strategic ally.
Bill O'Brien, Senior Vice President of Market Data Distribution, NASDAQ.

NYSE PRESS RELEASE


Online Trading Academy and NYSE Liffe US to Present Gold from a Traders Perspective
and How to Trade Gold and Silver in Uncertain Economic Times at LA Traders Expo.

CME PRESS RELEASE


Online Trading Academy Announces New Futures Trading Resource Center with Content
from CME Group
Online Trading Academy will work cooperatively with CME Group to deliver futures
trading education via All Star trader events in cities including New York, Chicago and Los
Angeles and via outreach to their global community of traders and investors.

Who is Online Trading Academy?

Bloomberg - Asia

CBS

Fox Business

We Are The Worlds


Most Trusted Name In
Trading and Investing
Education.
Bloomberg

CNBC - Asia

CNBC

OTA Market Timing


For Short Term Income and Long Term
Wealth Preservation
4 Days Market Timing Classes
Market Timing Rule Based Strategy
- This is how you make money.
Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options
- Which market/s are right for you?
Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames
1 On 1 trading plan sessions in the class with your Education
Counselor
Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention
Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member

Market Timing Class


For
Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth

May 20-23rd

1pm EST 4:00PM EST

OTA Market Timing


For Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth
4 Days Market Timing Class
Market Timing Rule Based Strategy
- This is how you make money.
Introduction to Stocks, Futures, Forex, Options
- Which market/s are right for you?
Market Timing in Any and All Markets and Time Frames
One On One trading plan sessions in the class with your Education
Counselor
Interactive Course Workbook for Maximum Retention
Ability to Bring a Spouse/Family Member

$299

Today Only Special

Break

5 Min

Market Timing - Florida


Short Term Income and Long Term Wealth

Tampa/St Pete - April 19-21st


Jacksonville - April 26-28th
Orlando - May 16-18th
8:00 AM EST 5:00PM EST

Call Today: 800/276-6044