Public Opinion and Public Opinion Polling

Author(s): Herbert Blumer

Source: American Sociological Review, Vol. 13, No. 5 (Oct., 1948), pp. 542-549
Published by: American Sociological Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2087146
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PUBLIC OPINION

AND PUBLIC OPINION

HERBERT

POLLING*

BLUMER

of Chicago
University

First,
threeobservations.
HIS paper presentssome observations can be seenthrough
to tryto identify
seemingly,
on publicopinionand on publicopin- thereis no effort,
It or to isolatepublicopinionas an object; we
performed.
ion pollingas currently
willprovoke are not givenany criteriawhichcharacterize
is hopedthattheseobservations
publicopinionand thuswe are
this or distinguish
the discussionforwhich,I understand,
meetinghas beenarranged.The observations not able to say that a given empiricalinare not along the line of what seems to be stancefallswithintheclass of publicopinion
of studentsof pub- and some otherempiricalinstancefallsoutthe chiefpreoccupation
lic opinionpolling,to wit, the internalim- side of the class of public opinion.Second,
provementof theirtechnique.Instead, the thereis an absence,as faras I can determine,
are designedto inviteattention of using specificstudies to test a general
-observations
to whetherpublic opinionpollingactually propositionabout public opinion; this sugdealswithpublicopinion.
gests that the studentsare not studyinga
The firstobservationswhich I wish to genericobject.This suggestionis supported
make are in the natureof a prelude.They by thethirdobservation-apaucity,ifnota
come froma merelogicalscrutinyof public completeabsence, of generalizationsabout
opinionpollingas an alleged formof scien- public opinion despite the voluminous
What I note is the in- amountof pollingstudiesof publicopinion.
tificinvestigation.
ability of public opinionpollingto isolate It mustbe concluded,in my judgment,that
"public opinion"as an abstractor generic currentpublic opinionpollinghas not succonceptwhichcould therebybecomethe fo- ceededin isolatingpublicopinionas a generic
cal point for the formationof a system object of study.
It may be arguedthat the isolationof a
of propositions.It would seem needlessto
enter- genericobject,especiallyin therealmof hupointout thatin an avowedscientific
prise seekingto study a class of empirical manbehavior,is a goal ratherthanan initial
itemsand to developa seriesof generaliza- point of departure-and that consequently
publicopininabilityto identify
tionsabout thatclass it is necessaryto iden- the-present
enablesdis- ion as a genericobjectis notdamningto curtifytheclass. Such identification
betweenthe instanceswhichfall rentpublic opinionpolling.This should be
crimination
me is the
withinthe class and thosewhichdo not. In admitted.However,whatimpresses
or sincereinterest
thismanner,thegenericcharacterof theob- apparentabsenceof effort
ject of studybecomesdelineated.Whenthe on thepartofstudentsofpublicopinionpollit ing to move in the directionof identifying
genericobject of studyis distinguishable,
becomespossibleto focusstudyon thatob- the object whichtheyare supposedlyseekmore ingto study,to record,and to measure.I beject and thus to learn progressively
about thatobject.In thisway thegroundis lieve it is fair to say that those tryingto
preparedfor cumulativegeneralizationsor study public opinion by polling are so
relativeto thegenericobjectof weddedto theirtechniqueand so preoccupied
propositions
of theirtechniquethat
withtheimprovement
investigation.
As faras I can judge,thecurrentstudyof theyshuntaside thevitalquestionofwhether
publicopinionby pollingignoresthe simple theirtechniqueis suitedto thestudyofwhat
logicalpointwhichhas just beenmade.This theyare ostensiblyseekingto study.Their
workis largelymerelymakingapplicationof
Theyare not concernedwith
*Paper read before the annual meetingof the theirtechnique.
analysisof thenatureof public
American Sociological Society held in New York independent
City,December28-30, I947.
opinionin orderto judge whetherthe ap542

PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING

543

plicationof theirtechniquefitsthatnature. and to questionsof whethertheirtechnique

A fewwordsare in orderhereon an ap- is suited to this functionalnature.In this
ofpubproach that consciouslyexcuses itselffrom paperI intendto judgethesuitability
any consideration
of such a problem.I refer lic opinionpollingas a means of studying
to the narrowoperationalistpositionthat public opinion.This shall be done fromthe
publicopinionconsistsof what public opin- standpointof whatwe knowof publicopinion polls poll. Here, curiously,the findings ion in oursociety.
resultingfroman operation,or use of an inwe do not knowa greatdeal
Admittedly,
strument,are regardedas constituting
the about public opinion. However,we know
object of studyinsteadof being some con- something.We know enough about public
additionto knowledge
tributory
of theobject opinionfromempiricalobservationsto form
aboutits
of study.The operationceases to be a guided a fewreasonablyreliablejudgments
procedureon behalfof an objectof inquiry; natureand modeof functioning.
In addition,
insteadtheoperationdetermines
intrinsically we can make some reasonablysecureinferof
and functioning
its own objective.I do not care to consider encesabout thestructure
here the profoundlogical and psychological our society and about collectivebehavior
that attendthe effortto develop withinour society.This combinedbody of
difficulties
systematicknowledgethrougha procedure knowledgederivedpartly fromdirectemwhichis not a formof directedinquiry.All piricalobservationand partlyfromreasonthatI wishto noteis thattheresultsof nar- able inferencecan serve appropriatelyas
row operationalism,as above specified, meansof judgingand assessingcurrentpubmerelyleave or raisethequestionofwhatthe lic opinionpollingas a device forstudying
resultsmean.Not havinga conceptualpoint public opinion.
of reference
Indeed, the featuresthat I wish to note
the resultsare merelydisparate
It is logicallypossible,of course,to about public opinionand its settingare so
findings.
use such findings
to developa conceptualiza- obvious and commonplacethat I almost
tion.I failto see anything
beingdonein this blush to call themto the attentionof this
directionby thosewho subscribeto the nar- audience.I wouldnotdo so wereit notpainpublic
rowoperationalist
positionin theuse ofpub- fullyclearthatthestudentsof current
lic opinionpolls.Whatis logicallyunpardon- opinionpollingignorethemeitherwittingly
in theirwhole researchproable on the part of thosewho take the nar- or unwittingly
row operationalistpositionis for them to cedure.I shall indicateby numberthe feaholdeitherwittingly
orunwittingly
thattheir turesto be noted.
i.) Public opinionmustobviouslybe recinvestigations
are a studyof public opinion
as thistermis conceivedin our ordinarydis- ognizedas havingits settingin a societyand
course.Having rejectedas unnecessarythe as beinga functionof thatsocietyin operatask of characterizing
the object of inquiry tion.This means,patently,thatpublicopinin
forthepurposeofseeingwhether
theenquiry iongetsis formfromthesocial framework
is suitedto theobjectofinquiry,it is gratui- whichit moves,and fromthe social procalso thatthe
tous and unwarranted
to presumethatafter essesin play in thatframework;
all theinquiryis a studyof theobjectwhich functionand role of publicopinionis deterone refusesto characterize.Such a formof minedby the part it plays in the operation
tryingto eat one's cake and have it too needs of thesociety.If publicopinionis to be studno further
comment.
ied in anyrealisticsenseits depictionmustbe
The foregoing
seriesoflogicalobservations faithfulto its empiricalcharacter.I do not
has been made merelyto stressthe absence wishto be redundantbut I findit necessary
of consideration
of a genericobjectby those to say thatthe empiricalcharacterof public
and
engaged in public opinionpolling. Appar- opinionis represented
by its composition
as a part of a society
ently,it is by virtueof thisabsenceof con- mannerof functioning
siderationthat theyare obtuseto the func- in operation.
tionalnatureof publicopinionin our society
2.) As every sociologistought to know

544

AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

laymandoesknow,a have to makethecrucialdecisionsare almost

and as everyintelligent
with the necessityof
It is not a mere inevitablyconfronted
societyhas an organization.
claims,deaggregationof disparateindividuals.A hu- assessingthe variousinfluences,
man societyis composedof diversekindsof mands, urgings, and pressures that are
groups.In ourAmericansocietyil- broughtto bear on them.Insofaras theyare
functional
groupsare responsiveand responsibletheyare boundto
lustrativeinstancesof functional
a trade association,a labor make such an assessmentin the processof
a corporation,
union,an ethnicgroup,a farmers'organiza- arrivingat theirdecisions.Here I want to
tion.To a major extentour total collective make the triteremarkthat in makingtheir
life is made up of the actionsand acts of assessmentsthesekey individualstake into
such groups.These groupsare orientedin accountwhattheyjudge to be worthyof bedifferent
directionsbecause of special in- ingtakenintoaccount.
5.) The above pointsgivea crudebut esin termsof their
terests.These groupsdiffer
strategicpositionin thesocietyand in terms sentiallyrealisticpictureofcertainimportant
they waysin whichour societyoperates.The fifth
of opportunitiesto act. Accordingly,
differin termsof prestigeand power. As featureI wishto note is thatpublicopinion
functionalgroups,that is to say as groups is formedand expressedin large measure
in somecorporateor uni- throughthese ways of societal operation.
actingindividually
tary sense,such groupsnecessarilyhave to This point requiresa littleelaboration.The
ofpublicopinionoccursas a funchave some organization-someleadership, formation
some policy makers,some individualswho tionofa societyin operation.I statethematspeak on behalfof thegroup,and someindi- ter in thatway to stressthat the formation
vidualswho take the initiativein actingon of publicopiniondoes not occurthroughan
behalfof thegroup.
interactionof disparate individuals who
3.) Such functionalgroups, when they shareequallyin theprocess.Insteadtheforact, have to act throughthe channelswhich mationof public opinionreflectsthe funcare availablein thesociety.If thefateof the tional compositionand organizationof soproposedacts dependson thedecisionsof in- ciety.The formation
ofpublicopinionoccurs
dividualsor groupswhoare locatedat strate- in large measurethroughthe interaction
of
gic pointsin thechannelsof action,thenin- groups.I mean nothingesotericby thislast
fluenceand pressure is brought to bear remark.I merelyreferto thecommonoccuron such individualsor renceof theleadersor officials
ofa functional
directlyor indirectly
groupswhomakethedecisions.I takeit that grouptakinga standon behalfof thegroup
thisrealisticfeatureof the operationof our withreference
to an issueand voicingexplicAmericansocietyrequireslittleexplication. itlyor implicitly
thisstandon behalfof the
If an action embodyingthe interestsof a group. Much of the interactionthrough
functionalgroupsuch as a farmers'organi- whichpublicopinionis formedis through
the
ization dependsfor its realizationon deci- clash of thesegroupviewsand positions.In
or a bureauor a set of no sensedoessucha groupviewimplythatit
sionsof Congressmen
on behalfof that is held in equal mannerand in equal degree
thenefforts
administrators,
actionwill seek to influencesuch Congress- by all of themembersof thegroup.Many of
Since in ev- the membersof the groupmay subscribeto
men,bureau,or administrators.
it,manymay
erysocietyto somedegree,and in ourAmeri- theviewwithoutunderstanding
about it, manymay sharethe
can societyto a largedegree,thereare indi- be indifferent
viduals, committees,boards, legislators, view only in part, and manymay actually
and executiveswho have to not sharetheviewbut stillnot rebelagainst
administrators,
the outcomeof therepresentatives
of thegroupwho express
make the decisionsaffecting
theview,as indicated,
the actions of functionalgroups,such key theview.Nevertheless
intothe forumof discuspeople become the object of directand in- may be introduced
or pressure.
directinfluence
sion as the view of the groupand may be
4. The key individualsreferredto who reactedto as such.To bringout thispointin

PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING

545

anotherway, one need merelynote that in I wish to note is that in any realisticsense
the moreoutstanding
of viewon publicopinionconsistsof thepatternof the
expressions
an issue,theindividualsalmostalwaysspeak diverseviewsand positionson theissue that
eitherexplicitlyor implicitlyas representa- come to the individualswho have to act in
tives of groups.I would repeatthat in any responseto the public opinion.Public opinrealistic sense the diversifiedinteraction ion whichwas a meredisplay,or whichwas
whichgivesriseto publicopinionis in large terminalin its very expression,or which
measurebetweenfunctionalgroupsand not never came to the attentionof those who
have to act on public opinionwouldbe immerelybetweendisparateindividuals.
I thinkthatit is also veryclearthatin the potentand meaningless
as faras affecting
the
processof formingpublic opinion,individ- action or operationof societyis concerned.
uals are not alike in influence
norare groups Insofaras public opinionis effective
on sothat are equal numericallyin membership cietal actionit becomesso onlyby entering
alikein influence.
This is so evidentas notto intothepurviewof whoever,like legislators,
requireelaboration.It is enoughmerelyto executives,administrators,
and policymakpoint out that differences
in prestige,posi- ers, have to act on public opinion.To me
tion,and influencethat characterizegroups this propositionis self-evident.If it be
and individualsin the functionalorganiza- granted,the characterof public opinionin
tionsofa societyare broughtintoplayin the terms of meaningfuloperation must be
formation
of publicopinion.
soughtin the array of views and positions
The pictureof a seriesof groupsand indi- whichenterinto the consideration
of those
vidualsof significantly
different
in- who have to take action on public opinion.
influence
teractingin the formation
It is important
of public opinion
to note thattheindividual
holds trueequallywell withreference
to the whohas to act on publicopinionhas to assess
expressionof public opinion.By expression the public opinionas it comesto his attenof publicopinionI meanbringing
thepublic tion,becauseof theveryfactthatthispublic
opinionto bear on thosewho have to act in opinioncomesto himin the formof diverse
responseto publicopinion.This expression
is viewsand usuallyopposedviews.Insofaras
not in the formof a parade or arrayof the he is responsiveto publicopinionhe has to
views of disparateindividuals,in an open weighthe respectiveviews.How thisassessforum.Wherethe viewsare voiced in open mentis made is an obscurematter.But one
forumtheyare likely,as has been indicated, generalization
eventhoughtrite,can be made
to be in one way or anothertheexpression
of safely,to wit,thatthe individualtakesinto
groupviews.But in additionto the voicing accountdifferent
viewsonlyto theextentto
ofviewsin theopen forum,
theexpressionof whichsuch views count. And views count
public opinionis in the formof directin- prettymuch on the basis of how the indifluenceon thosewho are to act in response vidual judges the "backing" of the views
to publicopinion.Throughsuchmeansas let- and the implicationof the backing. It is
ters,telegrams,
petitions,
resolutions,
lobbies, in thissense,again,that the organization
of
and personalmeetingsinterested thesocietywithits differentiation
delegations,
of prestige
groupsand individualsbringtheirviewsand and power,entersintothe characterof pubpositionsto bear on the key personswho lic opinion.As was explainedabove,thekey
have to make the decisions.I am not con- personwho has to act on public opinionis
cernedwithwhether
suchformsofexpressing usuallysubjectto a varietyof presentations,
publicopinionshouldoccur;I merelywishto importunities,
demands,criticisms,
and sugemphasizethatin any realisticconsideration gestionsthat come to him throughthe varof publicopinionit mustbe recognizedthat ious channelsin thecommunicative
structure
such meansof expressing
public opiniondo of society.Unless one wishesto conjurein
occur.A societywhichhas to act willuse the his imaginationa very fancifulsocietyhe
channelsof actionthatit has in its structure. mustadmitthattheservantofpublicopinion
6.) The last featureofpublicopinionthat is forcedto make an assessmentof the ex-

546

AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

pressionsof publicopinionthatcome to his the samplethe social nitchof theindividual

attentionand thatin thisassessmentconsid- in that portionof the social structurein
onlyto theex- whichthe public opinionis being formed.
erationis givento expressions
is not given in the content to whichthey are judged to "count." Such information
six featuresare, I believe, ventionalitemsof age, sex, occupation,ecoThe foregoing
pointsaboutpublicopinion nomic status, educational attainmentor
tritebut faithful
in oursociety.Theymayserve class status.These are rarelythe marksof
as it functions
of pub- significant
functionalpositionin the formaas a backgroundfortheexamination
lic opinionpolling.I may state here thatin tion of public opinionon a givenissue. We
myself do not know fromthe conventional
kind of
this discussionI am not concerning
withthe problemof whetherthe individual sample or fromthe responsesof the interif any,he has in the
opinionsone gets throughthe pollinginter- vieweewhat influence,
vieware reasonablyvalid. My discussion,in- formationor expressionof public opinion.
stead,is concernedwiththe questionof the We do not knowwhetherhe has a following
even if one makesthe or whetherhe doesn't. We do not know
value of poll findings
dubiousassumptionthattheindividualopin- whetheror not he is speakingon behalfof a
groupor groupsor whetherhe even belongs
ionsthatare securedare valid.
of to functionalgroupsinterested
in the issue.
In myjudgmenttheinherentdeficiency
publicopinionpolling,certainlyas currently If he does, perchance,expressthe views of
done,is containedin its samplingprocedure. some such functionalgroup,we don'tknow
samplingprocedureforcesa treat- whetheror not thatgroupis busilyat work
Its current
mentof societyas if societywere only an in thechannelsofsocietyto givevigorousexaggregationof disparateindividuals.Public pressionto theirpoint of view. We do not
opinion,in turn,is regardedas beinga quan- even know whetherhe, as an individual,is
of individualopinions. translatinghis opinion into what I have
titativedistribution
publicopinion."
This way of treatingsocietyand thisway of termedpreviously"effective
In short,we know essentiallynothingof
viewingpublic opinionmustbe regardedas
to
markedlyunrealistic.The best way I can theindividualin thesamplewithreference
ofhimor ofhisopinionin the
bringthis out is by makingcontinuousref- thesignificance
erence to the commonsense empiricalob- publicopinionthatis beingbuiltup orwhich
itselffunctionally
in the operaservationsof publicopinionthatwerenoted is expressing
previously.We do not knowat all whether tionof society.We do notknowwhetherthe
thatpor- individualhas thepositionof an archbishop
individualsin thesamplerepresent
societythat is participat- or an itinerantlaborer; whetherhe belongs
tionof structured
of publicopinionon a to a powerfulgrouptakinga vigorousstand
ing in the formation
given issue. That the sample will catch a on the issue or whetherhe is a detachedrenumberof them,or even a largernumberof cluse with no membershipin a functional
them,is verylikely.But, as faras I am able group; whetherhe is bringinghis opinionto
pub- bear in some fashionat strategicpoints in
thereis no wayin current
to determine,
lic opinionpollingto knowmuchabout this. the operationof societyor whetherit is isoWe do notknow
Certainlythemerefactthatthe interviewee lated and sociallyimpotent.
eithergivesor does notgivean opiniondoes whatrole,if any,any individualin thesamin the ple playsin theformation
of thepublicopinhe is participating
nottellyouwhether
formationof public opinionas it is being ion on whichhe is questioned,and we do not
in the society.More knowwhatpart,if any,his opinionas given
built up functionally
assumingthatthesamplecatches has in the functionalpublic opinionwhich
important,
in the existswithreference
to the issue.
the individualswho are participating
to
What has just been said withreference
formationof the given public opinion,no
of thepublicopinis given of theirpart in this theindividualcomponent
information
fromthesample ion poll appliescollectively
to the totalfindprocess.One cannotidentify
have no assuror fromthe replies of those constituting ings.The collectivefindings

PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING

547

ance of depictingpublic opinionon a given currentpublicopinionpollinggivesan inacissuebecausethesefindings

ignoretheframe- curateand unrealistic
pictureof publicopinwork and the functionaloperationof the ionbecauseofthefailureto catchopinionsas
publicopinion.If thisis notclear fromwhat theyare organizedand as theyoperatein a
has alreadybeen said, I wouldlike to point functioning
society.
thatoccurswhen
out theenormousdifficulty
What I have said will appear to manyas
of a public distinctly
one seeks to assess the findings
invalidon the groundthatpublic
opinionpoll in termsof the organizationof opinionpollinghas demonstrated
thatit can
societywithwhichan administrator,
legisla- and does detectpublicopinionfaithfully,
by
tor,executive,or similarly
placed personhas virtueof its markedsuccess in predicting
to contend.As I have statedearliersuch an electionreturns.This contention
needsto be
individualwho is presumablyresponsiveto investigatedcarefully,particularlysince in
publicopinionhas to assesspublicopinionas mostcirclespolling,whereverapplied,is rein termsofthefunc- garded as intrinsically
it comesto his attention
valid because of its
of societyto whichhe is ratherspectacularsuccessin predicting
tionalorganization
elecresponsive.He has to view that societyin tions.WhatI thinkneedsto be notedis that
termsof groupsof divergentinfluence;in thecastingofballotsis distinctly
an actionof
withdifferent
termsof organizations
degrees separateindividualswhereina ballotcast by
ofpower;in termsofindividualswithfollow- one individualhas exactlythe same weight
ings; in termsof indifferent
people-all, in as a ballotcastby anotherindividual.In this
otherwords,in termsofwhatand whocounts propersense,and in thesenseof real action,
in his part of the social world.This typeof votersconstitutea populationof disparate
whichis called forin theinstance individuals,each of whomhas equal weight
assessment
of an organizedsocietyin operationis well- to the others.Consequently,the sampling
nigh impossibleto make in the case of the procedurewhichis based on a populationof
of publicopinionpolls. We are un- disparateindividualsis eminentlysuited to
findings
able to answersuch questionsas the follow- securinga pictureofwhatthevotingis likely
ing: how muchpowerand influenceis pos- to be. However,to regardthe successfuluse
sessedby thosewhohave thefavorableopin- of pollingin this area as proofof its autoionor theunfavorable
opinion;whoare these maticvaliditywhenappliedto an area where
peoplewhohave theopinion;whomdo they people do not act as equally weighteddisrepresent;howwellorganizedare they;what parate individualsbegs the very question
groupsdo theybelong to that are stirring underconsideration.
I wouldrepeatthatthe
aroundon the scene and that are likelyto formationand expressionof public opinion
continueto do so; are thosepeoplewhohave givingrise to effective
public opinionis not
thegivenopinionverymuchconcerned
about an actionof a populationof disparateinditheiropinion;are theygoingto getbusyand vidualshavingequal weightbut is a function
about it; are theygoingto get of a structured
do something
society,differentiated
into a
vociferous,militant,and troublesome;are networkof different
kindsof groupsand inthey in the positionto influencepowerful dividualshavingdifferential
weightand ingroupsand individualswhoare known;does fluenceand occupyingdifferent
strategicpoa studiedpolicyof sig- sitions.Accordingly,
theopinionrepresent
to mymind,thesuccess
nificantorganizations
whichwill persistand attendingpollingin the predictionof elecwhoare likelyto remember;
is theopinionan tions gives no validityto the methodas a
view whichpeople means of studying,recordingor measuring
ephemeralor momentary
will quicklyforget?These samplequestions public opinionas it formsand functionsin
difficult
it is to assessthe our society.
showhowmarkedly
resultsof public opinionpolling fromthe
There is a very importantcontentionin
ofthethingsthathave to be taken this connectionwhichhas to be considered.
standpoint
can be statedas follows:
into accountin workingin an organizedso- The contention
in turn,signifiesthat
ciety.This difficulty,
An electionby publicballotis in itselfan

548

AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

expression
of publicopinion-and,furthermore,
here.It is sufficient
to note thatif one seeks
it is effective
and decisiveexpression
of public to justifypollingas a methodof studying
opinion.
It is,in fact,theultimate
expression
of publicopinionon thegroundthatthecompopublicopinionandthusit represents
theproper sitionof publicopinionoughtto be different
normof theexpression
ofpublicopinion.
In the than what it is, he is not establishingthe
election
byballoteachvoter,in accordance
with
thebasic principles
of democracy,
has his say validityof the methodforthe studyof the
as a citizenandhas equalworthto everyother empiricalworldas it is. Instead,he is hangcitizenin casting
hisballot.If election
byballot ingon thecoat-tailsofa dubiousproposalfor
be recognized
as the genuinereferendum
in socialreform.*
of
whichtrue public opinioncomes to expres- In thispaperI havepresentedcriticisms
sion, thenthe preeminence
of currentpublic "publicopinionpolling"as a methodforthe
opinionpollingas thedeviceforrecording
and recordingand measurement
of public opinmeasuring
publicopinion
is established.
For,pub- ion. These criticismshave centeredaround
lic opinionpollingwithits current
formof sam- the distortionthat stemsfromthe use of a
plinghas demonstrated
thatit canpredictrelia- samplein the formof an aggregation
of disbly and effectively
the resultsof the election. parate individuals
having
equal
weight.
Accordingly,
publicopinion
initself,
polling,
can
shouldnotbe misinterpreted
be usedas a typeof referendum
to recordand These criticisms
measurethetrueopinionof thepublicon issues to meanthatsucha samplingprocedureis inappliedor thatwherever
pollin theinstances
of whichthepublicdoesnotgo validwherever
to theelectionpolls.Thus,publicopinionpol- ing makesuse of such a samplingprocedure
lingyieldsa morereliableand accuratepicture such pollingis intrinsically
invalid.Clearly,
of publicopinionthanis represented
by the the criticismapplies whensuch a sampling
confused,
indefinite,
slanted,and favor-riddenprocedureis used to studya matterwhose
expressions
of opinionthatcomeordinarily
to composition
is an organization
of interacting
the legislator,
administrator,
or executivewho partsinsteadof beingmerelyan aggregation
has to acton publicopinion.
The publicopinion
Wherethematterwhichoneis
polltellsus wherepeoplestand.It givesus the ofindividuals.
an
ofindividualunits
studying
is
aggregation
voxpopUl.
then the applicationof the samplingproMy remarkswithreference
to thisconten- cedurespokenof is clearlyin order.I make
onlyto call attentionto
tion will be brief.It should be evidenton thisbanal statement
analysisthatthecontention
is actuallya nor- the factthatthereare obviouslymanymatmativeplea and not a defenseof pollingas ters about humanbeingsand theirconduct
a methodof studyof publicopinionas such thathave just thischaracterof beingan agpublicopinionfunctions
in our society.The gregationof individualsor a congeriesof inmatters
contentionproposesthat public opinionbe dividualactions.Many demographic
construedin a particularway, to wit, that are of thisnature.Also,manyactionsof hupublicopinionoughtto be an aggregation
of man beingsin a societyare of this nature
theopinionsofa crosssectionof thepopula- -such as castingballots,purchasingtooth
tionratherthanwhatit is in theactual func* I referto such a programas dubious because
tioningof society.To my mindit is highly
I believe the much needed improvementof public
questionablewhetherin the day by day op- opinion in our society should be in the process by
erationofoursocietypublicopinionoughtto which public opinion organicallyfunctions,i.e., by
be of thenaturepositedby thepublicopinion arousing, organizing,and effectivelydirectingthe
poll. Many appropriatequestionscould be opinion of people who appreciate that they have
raisedabout how and to what extentpublic an interestin a given issue. A reliance,instead, on
a mere "referendum"by an undifferentiated
mass,
opinionis expressedat theelectionpolls,and, havinggreatsegmentsof indifference
and non-particimoreimportant,
whether
it wouldbe possible pation,is unlikelyto offera desirablepublic opinion.
or even advisableforpublic opinion,in the At the best, in my judgment,such a "referendum"
formof an aggregationof equally weighted could operateas a correctivesupplementand not as
a substitute. The important question concerning
individualopinions,to function
meaningfullythe directionsin which public opinion mightsecure
in a societywitha diversified
organization. its much needed improvementis, of course,outside
However,such questionsneed not be raised of the scope of this paper.

PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING

549

paste, going to motionpictureshows, and on in thelatterstages,we have to dip in here

readingnewspapers.Such actions,whichI and there.The problemsof whereto dip in,
liketo thinkofas mass actionsofindividuals how to dip in, and how far to dip in are
in contrastto organizedactions of groups, whatI have in mindin speakingof sampling
lend themselvesreadilyto the typeof sam- an organicstructure.
plingthatwe have in currentpublicopinion
I suppose,as one ofmyfriends
has pointed
polling.In fact,it is the existenceof such out,thattheanswerto theproblemrequires
massactionsofindividuals
whichexplains,in theformulation
of a model.We haveno such
myjudgment,thesuccessful
use in consumer modelin the instanceof publicopinionas it
researchof samplingsuch as is employedin operatesin oursociety.My ownhunchis that
publicopinionpolling.WhatI findquestion- sucha modelshouldbe constructed,
if it can
able,and whatthispapercriticizes,
backwardsinsteadofby
is theuse be at all,by working
of such samplingwith its implicitimagery workingforward.
That is, we oughtto begin
and logicin thestudyofa matterwhich,like withthosewhohave to act on publicopinion
the processof publicopinion,functions
as a and move backwardsalong the lines of the
movingorganization
of interconnected
parts. various expressionsof public opinion that
tracingtheseexpresThe last item I wish to considerbriefly cometo theirattention,
refersto the interesting
and seeminglybaf- sions backwardthroughtheirown various
flingquestionof howone shouldor can sam- channelsand in doing so, notingthe chief
and
ple an object matterwhichis a complicated channels,the key pointsof importance,
systemof interacting
parts,havingdifferen- the way in whichany givenexpressionhas
tial influence
in the totaloperation.Perhaps come to developand pick up an organized
the questionin itselfis absurd.At various backingout of whatinitiallymusthave been
times I have asked differentexperts in a relativelyamorphouscondition.Perhaps,
samplinghow one wouldsamplean organic such a model, if it could be workedout,
structure.
Witha singleexceptiontheseindi- would allow the developmentof a realistic
vidualslookedat me askanceas if theques- methodof samplingin place of what seems
tion wereidiotic.But the problem,I think, to me to be the highlyartificialmethodof
remainseven thoughI find it difficult
to samplingused in currentpublicopinionpollstate.In humansociety,particularly
in mod- ing.
ernsociety,we are confronted
withintricate
DISCUSSION
complexesof moving relationswhich are
THEODOREM. NEWCOMB
roughlyrecognizable
as systems,
eventhough
Universityof Michigan
loose systems.Such a loose systemis too
ProfessorBlumerhas long been knownas a
complicated,too encumberedin detail and
too fastmovingto be describedin anyone of formidablecritic,and I am sure thereare many
its given "cycles" of operationadequately otherswho sharedwith me the anticipationof
seeing him turn his battery of high-powered
and faithfully.
Yet unlesswe merelywantto gunsupon the practitioners
of "public opinion."
speculateabout it we have to dip into it in In my judgment,his guns in this instancehave
somemannerin orderto understandwhatis misfired.
This is not to say thatthosewho study
happeningin thegivencycleof operationin attitudesby samplingmethodsare beyondcritiwhichwe are interested.
Thus,usingthepub- cism; even a lessercriticthanProfessorBlumer
lic opinionprocessin our societyas an illus- couldpointto manyshortcomings
on theirpart.
trationwe are able to make a roughcharac- It may trulybe said of all of them,probably,
terization
as to how it functions
in the case, thatin one way or anothertheyhave done what
let us say,ofa nationalissue.However,ifwe theyoughtnot to have done and thattheyhave
wantto knowhowit functions
in thecase of not done what theyoughtto have done,and in
a givennationalissue, we are at a loss to some of themthereis littlehealthindeed. His
targetwas thusan easy one, and I wantto raise
makean adequatedescription
becauseof the the questionof whyit is that he has nevertheand quick movement
complexity
of thecycle less, in my judgement,missedit.
of its operation.So, to knowwhat is going
The firstreason,I think,is that he was not
on,particularly
to knowwhatis likelyto go quite selectiveenoughin his aim. I wishhe had