[Diplomacy] Nepal Logjam (Part 3 of 3): Chinese presence,

Anti-India sentiments, how & why Indias policy failed

Mrunal
http://mrunal.org/2013/01/diplomacy- nepal- logjam- chinese- presence- anti- india- sentiments- how- why- india- policy- fail- 3.html
Februray 2, 2013

[Diplomacy] Nepal Logjam (Part 3 of 3): Chinese presence, AntiIndia sentiments, how & why Indias policy failed
Introduction
Nepal logjam is a three part article series. Make sure youve read previous parts, before
proceeding further.

Part
1 of
3

Topics
Indias Nepal Policy (2005)

Link
Click ME

Why CA cant deliver a new Constitution for Nepal.

Why four Prime ministers have changed in Nepal between 2008
to 2011.
2 of
3

Internal disputes within Maoist Party. How Kiran made his

separate party and now continues Anti-India campaign in Nepal.

Click ME

Why Elections are not held in Nepal

3 of
3

Chinese presence in Nepal

how and why Indias Nepal Policy (2005)=# epicfail.

Discussed
in this
article.

Chinese Influence
However in the late 80s, King of Nepal decided to buy weapons from China.
India responded by putting trade-embargo on Nepal. This completely paralyzed the
Nepalese economy.
Thus, Royal+Political establishment in Nepal learned the lesson ki India se pangaa =bahut
mahengaa.(If we annoy India, itll be very costly for us!)
So, the Nepal King cancelled weapons deal with China and maintained a bit of distance
from Chinese authorities.
But ever since the abolition of Monarchy, China is building strong relations with Nepal.

Lumbini Special Development Zone

Lumbini, about 50 km from Indias border.
It is a pilgrim place for Buddhists and Hindus.
Asia Pacific Exchange and Cooperation Foundation (APECF)= NGO backed by Chinese
Government.
APECF has signed deal with Nepalese Government to Development this area. (Project
worth $3 billion.)
This has upset India, because we wanted to develop this tourist city on our own.

China is upgrading an existing airport in the tourist city of

Pokhara

Infrastructure

China is building four major roads along the Nepal-Tibet border

and four dry ports for Nepal.

China is setting up a training academy for the Armed Police

Force,

Defense

China gives annual financial assistance to Nepalese paramilitary

forces and the Civil Police.

Cash

China has given billions of Nepali rupees as soft loan.

Tibet

Nepals stand on Tibet = We recognize Tibet as Chinas integral

part. (One China policy)
When Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Nepal, the Baburams
Government made elaborate arrangements to make sure no
Free-Tibet activist ruined the visit.

USA
2003

USA banned the Nepali Maoist party as a terrorist organization.

September 2012

US has taken their name off the list of terrorist organizations.

This is seen as a move to become friendly with the Nepalese Government (presently headed by
Maoist party) and prevent absolute domination of either China or India in this country. Anyways,
back to the point:

Murderers are free

Supreme Court of Nepal, convicted a Maoist MP for murder.

But since he belongs to PM Baburam Bhattarais party, the Government isnot doing
anything.
In fact Prime Minister asked the President to pardon that fellow!
The Speaker of Nepalese Lok Sabha did not disqualify the said Murderer MP even after
court-conviction.
This has eroded Bhattarais image in local crowd + among international players.(UN, India
etc.)

Human rights are selective

Amnesty International and other human rights groups say that Nepals Government (led
by Maoists) is not prosecuting their own leaders for genocide and crimes against
humanity.
PM Bhattarai has unilaterally withdrawn human rights violation cases, including those of
murder and abductions, against his party leaders and cadre.
It seems the international community has chosen to shut its eyes to the atrocities
committed by the Maoists, in the name of getting politically stable Nepal.
On the other hand, some Nepalese Army officials are being prosecuted for Human rights
violation during civil war. This is creating bitterness between Army and Government.

UN Mission to Nepal (UNMIN)

To assist the peace process
To manage the arms and armies of the Maoist party (after they joined democratic
process in 2006)
2010: UNMIN left Nepal.
UNMIN has been accused of being Pro-Maoist, when it came to handling human rights
violation.

Corruption
(2011) Nepals ranks around 150 in the Transparency International, so you get the idea of
how things roll in Nepal.
The officers from Irrigation department complained to Prime minister that Irrigation
minister doesnt pass any project unless bribes are paid to him in advance.
Similarly bureaucrats from almost every department have openly alleged that ministers
demand huge bribes for transfers, promotions and plum postings.
Elections to local bodies have not been conducted in the past decade.
Asian Development Bank and the World Bank reports show heavy corruption in poverty
removal programs done at national and local levels.

Reservation in Army Jobs

One of the Coalition partners of Maoist Government = the United Democratic Madhesi
Front (UDMF) aka Madhesi party.

Madhesi
party

@Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai,

Babu

Ok ok, I agree.

Army
Chief

But I wont agree.

The Nepal army will recruit anyone fulfilling the prescribed eligibility criteria.
We have never discriminated against anyone in the past.

Babu

Ok ok. I back off.

provide for reservation of 3,000 posts in Army for Madhesis and create a
separate regiment for them, else well pull off support from this coalition.

So, ultimately this move did not materialize but it angered the other Hindu castes (Brahman,
Chhetri etc.).

Ethnic Unrest
Maoist party wants to divide Nepal on Ethnic lines. (besides, their coalition partner Madesi
party is blackmailing them to create separate province for Madesi people.)
But other Hindu castes are against this move.
Particularly Brahman and Chhetris (=30% per cent of the total population).
So they also started bandh and agitations. They donot want provinces to be created on
ethnicity.
Such Bandh and agitations have badly affected tourism and income of people.

Anger against UN and International Community

UN, Swiss and Norwegian Government had given money to certain Nepali NGOs and
Organizations that claimed to work for poverty removal.
But ground reality, all the money was only used for particular castes and groups.
This has further annoyed the Upper caste organizations.
They started agitating against UN and other donor agencies.
Finally UN representatives gave statement We had given money only for poverty
alleviation. If that money has been used for promoting caste and ethnic hatred, we
regret it.

Land transfer
During the Civil War (1996-2006), the Maoists held their Kangaroo courts and took away
land from rich farmers in rural areas and distributed it among their own cadres.
Under the Peace accord, such land was to be returned to original owners.

But Prime Minister Bhattarai (of Maoist party) has instructed the revenue department to
legalize such land transfers= Maoist cadres will continue possessing the land.
This is brewing more tension among villagers.

The Priest Appointment

According to age old tradition, only Indian Brahmin were appointed as head priest in
Kathmandus Pashupatinath temple.
But when Prachanda became Prime minister, he appointed a Nepali Brahmin as the head
priest of the temple.
This led to massive protests by the Hindu community in Nepal.
2012: Nepal Government makes a new law to restore appointment process. (=only Dravid
Shaivite Brahman community from the Trilinga* area of India can become Bhatt/Priest in
that temple.
*Trilinga= a territory that comprises parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu

Why Anti-India sentiment in Nepal?

In the above points, you saw how and why common Nepalese people are unhappy with
the things.
The rule of Maoist Government has brought nothing but corruption, ethnic tension,
economic problems.
Many Nepalese people have started thinking, This Maoist led Government is bad and
India has supported them to power.= India is the bad guy.
(Just like how common Afghan people would feel against America, for supporting that
corrupt Karzai regime.)
On the other hand, the regressive forces in Nepal, also hate India for not supporting
Former king Gyanendra and the Monarchy, during and after the civil war.

Regressive forces
Recall that Maoists did not return the land to the original owners. So there is bitterness in
certain population sections of villages.(rich, well-to-do farmers etc.)
Similarly the demand of ethnic states for Madhesi etc. are not acceptable to other Hindu
castes (Brahman, Chhetri etc.)
2012: The former king Gyanendra starts making visits to various districts of Nepal.
Large number of people greet him. There is lot of slogan shouting in his favor. Thousands
of people come to see him and hear his speeches.
It proves that many people are still in favor of the old traditional monarchy. (unlike Indian
calculation that lead to change of Nepal policy in 2005.)
And this section of Nepalese want the things to return to old system.
These forces are labelled as Regressive forces (Regressive=returning to a former less
advanced state.)
Right now theyre fragmented, (dont have a special political party to champion their

cause.)
But who knows, in long term, King and or his family or someone else might start political
party.
This is making Prachanda and the Maoist party bit nervous. Because public who initially
supported them are now disillusioned.
Until now, Prachanda used to run propaganda that Royal family has stashed truckload of
cash in Swiss bank accounts.
But recently the Swiss authorities told that Royal family of Nepal had no account in any
Swiss bank. This has further emboldened the regressive forces.
So Prachanda is trying scare-tactics in his speeches to woo his traditional vote-bank,
look if you dont support us. These regressive forces will come back and make your life
hell like.

Change of Indias Stand

Recently, Indias External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshids said, India has no particular
likes or dislikes for any force in Nepal.
Meaning well work with anyone in Nepal as long as it serves our national-interest. (it
proves that We want to correct our earlier mistake of supporting the Maoists.)
This statement of Khurshid has made Prachanda and Baburam really nervous.
They fear India might play some dirty-trick behind the scene, and support these
regressive forces/King/Nepali Congress(NC) etc. or even worst: support Kiran, who totally
hates both of them!

Criticism of Indias Nepal Policy

1. Under Maoist regime in Nepal, Chinese presence has increased. (compared to previous
Monarchy).
2. India gained an ally (Nepali Maoists) but India lost goodwill of Common Nepalese people.+
Plus there is new guy to deal with: Kiran and his anti-India campaign.
Ofcourse, in politics and diplomacy you cannot keep everyone happy. But
1. Prachandas control over Maoist party has declined. (Recall how Kiran left his party with
almost 1/3 of the cadres.)
2. Many of the remaining Maoist cadres and smalltime party leaders are unhappy with
Prachanda and Baburams corruption and lavish lifestyle.
3. Most of the Maoists combatants have deposited their weapons to army, accepted cash
and left for their villages.
This means:
1. Prachanda doesnt have the political clout like before.
2. Prachanda doesnt have the power of violence anymore. (He cannot start another civil
war now. Weapons deposited, Maoists combatants left for home.)
The romance period with Maoism is over. Public is angry and unhappy.

In next election, Maoist partys seats will decline.

Even Baburam and Prachanda dont have much friendship with eachother= in future,
there may be even more splits in the Maoist party.
So in the coming days, Prachanda will not be the dominant figure in Nepal.
This means, he will not be of much use to either India or China.
So, ult imat ely India wast ed t ime and money support ing t he wrong t eam f or 6 years.
In ret urn we got bad publicit y among Nepalese people t hat we (Indians) are responsible
f or t heir crisis: bot h f inancial and polit ical.
And now India will have to repeat making friends exercise with whoever becomes the
new king maker in Nepal.
Therefore, when President Ram Baran Yadav visited India in December 2012, Indian
establishment did not offer him any open support.
Right now we are in wait n watch mode to see who emerges as the main player.

For the list of all previous articles on [Diplomacy], visit Mrunal.org/diplomacy

Previous Posts
1. [Diplomacy] Mali Crisis, Taureg rebels, French Troops, Algeria Hostages: Background,
implications explained
2. [Diplomacy] Indian Ocean Rim Association (IOR-ARC): 12th Summit, Gurgaon
Communique, Highlights

3. [Diplomacy] Nepal Logjam (Part 2 of 3): Merger of Maoists with Army, Anti-India Campaign,
Why Elections are not held
4. [Diplomacy] Nepal Logjam (Part 1 of 3): Civil War, Peace-Deal, Constitutional deadlock,
Frequent change of Prime Ministers
5. [Diplomacy] WIPO Treaty for Visually Challenged, Patent vs Copyright difference
explained
6. [Diplomacy] Putin Visit, KudanKulam, GLONASS, 13th India Russia Annual Summit:
Issues, Outcomes
7. [Diplomacy] WCIT Conference Dubai, ITU: Why failed, Internet Censorship, ICANN, DNS
explained
8. [Diplomacy] Maldives Coup: Reasons, Implications, Nasheed, Prologue to GMR Issue
explained
9. [Diplomacy] East Asia Summit, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP),
Nalanda Project, Issues, Challanges India-China-US