STA 6127 Fertility Example (Problem 13.

17)

3 Groups: Urban Native, Urban Migrant, Rural Migrant

Response: Fertility = # of live births by woman
Covariate: Education Level

1) 1-Way ANOVA to Compare 3 Groups (Ignores Education Level)

Descriptives
FERT

N
1.00
2.00
3.00
Total

Mean
4.13
4.29
6.00
4.90

15
17
20
52

Std. Deviation
1.457
1.611
1.777
1.829

Std. Error
.376
.391
.397
.254

95% Confidence Interval for

Mean
Lower Bound
Upper Bound
3.33
4.94
3.47
5.12
5.17
6.83
4.39
5.41

Unadjusted means are: 4.13 (U-N), 4.29 (U-M), 6.00 (R-M)

ANOVA
FERT

Between Groups
Within Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
39.256
131.263
170.519

df
2
49

Mean Square
19.628
2.679

51

Reject H0: (F(2,49)=7.327, P=.002)

SSE = WSS = 131.623
R2 = BSS / TSS = 39.526 / 170.519 = 0.232

F
7.327

Sig.
.002

Minimum
2
2
3
2

Maximum
7
7
10
10

Multiple Comparisons
Dependent Variable: FERT
Bonferroni

(I) GROUPNUM
1.00
2.00
3.00

(J) GROUPNUM
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00

Mean
Difference
(I-J)
Std. Error
-.16
.580
-1.87*
.559
.16
.580
-1.71*
.540
1.87*
.559
1.71*
.540

Sig.
1.000
.005
1.000
.008
.005
.008

95% Confidence Interval

Lower Bound
Upper Bound
-1.60
1.28
-3.25
-.48
-1.28
1.60
-3.04
-.37
.48
3.25
.37
3.04

*. The mean difference is significant at the .05 level.

Conclude that ==

2) Simple Linear Regression Relating Fertility to Education (Ignores Group)

Model Summary
Model
1

R
.592a

R Square
.351

Adjusted
R Square
.338

Std. Error of
the Estimate
1.488

a. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC

R2 = .351
ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
59.806
110.713
170.519

df
1
50
51

a. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC

b. Dependent Variable: FERT

Reject H0: = 0 F(1,50)=27.009, P=.000

Mean Square
59.806
2.214

F
27.009

Sig.
.000a

Coefficientsa

Model
1

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
6.357
.347
-.265
.051

(Constant)
EDUC

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.592

t
18.294
-5.197

Sig.
.000
.000

a. Dependent Variable: FERT

Fitted Equation: Fertility = 6.357 0.265*EDUC

10

Linear Regression

0.0

fert = 6.36 + -0.27 * educ

R-Square = 0.35

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

educ

3) Analysis of Covariance (No Interaction Terms)

Z1 = 1 for U-N, 0 ow
Z2 = 1 for U-M, 0 ow
Z3 = 1 for R-M, 0 ow
Can only fit models with 2 of these variables at a time when you include
intercept term!!!

Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
2

Variables
Entered
EDUCa
Z1, Z2a

Variables
Removed
.
.

Method
Enter
Enter

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: FERT

Model Summary
Change Statistics
Model
1
2

R
R Square
.592a
.351
b
.718
.516

Adjusted
R Square
.338
.486

Std. Error of
the Estimate
1.488
1.311

R Square
Change
.351
.165

F Change
27.009
8.201

df1

df2
1
2

50
48

Sig. F Change
.000
.001

a. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC

b. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC, Z1, Z2

Coefficientsa

Model
1
2

(Constant)
EDUC
(Constant)
EDUC
Z1
Z2

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
6.357
.347
-.265
.051
7.160
.365
-.242
.045
-1.641
.450
-1.402
.436

a. Dependent Variable: FERT

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.592
-.540
-.411
-.363

t
18.294
-5.197
19.604
-5.325
-3.648
-3.213

Sig.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.001
.002

95% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound Upper Bound
5.659
7.055
-.368
-.163
6.425
7.894
-.333
-.150
-2.546
-.737
-2.279
-.525

Coefficientsa

Model
1
2

(Constant)
EDUC
(Constant)
EDUC
Z1
Z3

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
6.357
.347
-.265
.051
5.758
.420
-.242
.045
-.239
.465
1.402
.436

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.592
-.540
-.060
.377

t
18.294
-5.197
13.698
-5.325
-.515
3.213

Sig.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.609
.002

95% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound Upper Bound
5.659
7.055
-.368
-.163
4.913
6.603
-.333
-.150
-1.174
.695
.525
2.279

a. Dependent Variable: FERT

4) Analysis of Covariance (Model With Interaction)

Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
2
3

Variables
Entered
EDUCa
Z1, Z2a
EDUC_Z1,a
EDUC_Z2

Variables
Removed
.
.

Method
Enter
Enter

Enter

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: FERT

Model Summary
Change Statistics
Model
1
2
3

R
R Square
.592a
.351
.718b
.516
.719c
.517

Adjusted
R Square
.338
.486
.465

Std. Error of
the Estimate
1.488
1.311
1.337

a. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC

b. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC, Z1, Z2
c. Predictors: (Constant), EDUC, Z1, Z2, EDUC_Z1, EDUC_Z2

R Square
Change
.351
.165
.001

F Change
27.009
8.201
.065

df1

df2
1
2
2

50
48
46

Sig. F Change
.000
.001
.937

Coefficientsa

Model
1
2

(Constant)
EDUC
(Constant)
EDUC
Z1
Z2
(Constant)
EDUC
Z1
Z2
EDUC_Z1
EDUC_Z2

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
6.357
.347
-.265
.051
7.160
.365
-.242
.045
-1.641
.450
-1.402
.436
7.268
.520
-.264
.089
-1.719
.796
-1.615
.745
.017
.124
.040
.113

a. Dependent Variable: FERT

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.592
-.540
-.411
-.363
-.590
-.430
-.418
.032
.086

t
18.294
-5.197
19.604
-5.325
-3.648
-3.213
13.965
-2.976
-2.159
-2.167
.140
.353

Sig.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.001
.002
.000
.005
.036
.035
.890
.726

95% Confidence Interval for B

Lower Bound Upper Bound
5.659
7.055
-.368
-.163
6.425
7.894
-.333
-.150
-2.546
-.737
-2.279
-.525
6.220
8.315
-.443
-.085
-3.322
-.116
-3.114
-.115
-.232
.266
-.187
.267

rur_mig
10

Linear Regression

urb_mig

fert = 7.27 + -0.26 * educ

R-Square = 0.26

urb_nat
10

fert = 5.55
+ -0.25 * educ

R-Square = 0.49

2
0.0

2.5

5.0

educ

7.5

10.0

fert = 5.65 + -0.22 * educ

R-Square = 0.44