Osmo Kuusi

31.3.2014

Global business framework and 3D printing

FutMan based scenarios and 3D printing
We (besides me especially Jari Kaivo-oja) are recently working with a journal article that is focused on
the future impacts of the 3D printing. In this article a starting point is in 2003 published Europe 20152020, The Challenge for Sustainability made by Anton Geyer, Fabiana Scapolo (project leader), Mark
Boden, Tibor Dry, Ken Ducatel ( http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/eur20705en.pdf ).
The scenarios on the Future of Manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020 (FutMan) offered future images about
potential socio-economic developments and future technologies that were anticipated to shape the European
manufacturing sector over 2003-2020. The manufacturing scenarios highlighted important trends, possible trendbreaks, critical challenges and opportunities. The scenarios presented four possible future visions of
manufacturing in Europe in 2015-2020. These scenarios were developed by the Joint Research Centre of the
European Commission. They informed about 2003 understanding of European industrial policy and its basic
beliefs.
In Figure the basic framework of the Fut Man scenario analysis is visualized. The two basic dimensions of the
scenarios are concerted vs. loose integration of European sustainable development (SD) policies and individual
vs. collective public values/consumer behavior.

Figure 3. The Fut Man scenarios on the future of manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020

Concerning our still unpublished article, Jari Kaivo-oja suggested that we would link the 3D printing to this
scenario context and especially to the Local Standard scenario. My interpretation is, however, that the global and
European frameworks are changed so much during last ten years that just the basic framework and only some
features of the scenario stories are now relevant. The choice between loose or concerted sustainable
development policies of Europe is still relevant. However, it is now better than 2003 understood that without real
commitment of China, other BRIC countries and the US, actions of EU have only little impact on the climate
change. Conditions for collective SD actions of EU are also less favorable because the loss of trust related to the
euro crisis. Surely there is, however, the real need for the improved trust and shared collective values in Europe.
I consider that just the features of the original scenario stories presented in the Table 1 seem now to be relevant.
Because of the lack of trust that besides the euro crisis now is also visible in different positions of EU countries
concerning the Ukraine crisis, Local Standard or Global Economy are now more trend scenarios than Focus
Europe or Sustainable Times. Perhaps, the Local Standard is now the Business as usual scenario because local
collective values seem to strengthen their positions.
Table 1. Socio-economic features of the scenarios on the future of manufacturing in Europe 2015-2020.
Global
Local
Sustainable
Focus
Economy
Standard
Times
Europe
Low
Low
Strong
Integration of
EU SD Policy
integration
of
integration
of
integration
of
SD
policies
Integration
EU
policies.
Reliance
on
market
mechanism
and
industry
actions
to
achieve SD.
Individualism
and pursuit of
personal utility.
Highly
individualised
demand
patterns.

EU
policies.
Regional
interests
set
policy agendas
and priorities.

SD
policies
between levels
of government.
Regulation and
market
incentives.

with
strong
role of EU.
Emphasis on
cost
effectiveness of
policies.

Strong
perception that
community
values
and
local
dimension are
crucial
to
achieve SD.

Community
values
and
global
dimension are
emphasised.
Demand shifts
from products
to services.

Transport/
Energy

Liberalized,
oligopolistic
markets. Low
energy prices.
Little emphasis
on renewable
energy use.

Mixed publicprivate
markets. High
energy prices.
High
investment in
renewables.

Sustainable
Development

Strong
emphasis
on
the economic
pillar of SD.

Regional
monopolies.
High
energy
prices.
Fragmented
transport
infrastructures
and gridlocks.
Policies mainly
responses
to
local pressures
by
various
interest groups.
Regionally
patchy picture.

Individualistic
values
dominate.
Regulation
correct
distorted
preferences of
economic
actors.
Liberalized
markets. Low
energy costs.
Little
public
investments in
renewables.

Education

Partial

Regional

Governments

Consumer
Behaviour

Strong
emphasis
on
the social and
environmental
pillars of SD
guided
by
precautionary
principle.

Aim to balance
SD
pillars
through
integrated
policy
assessment
tools. Strong
technology
focus on SD.
Coordination

System

Labour
Market

Social
Security

privatization of
public
education and
training
system.
Multitude of
private
schemes.
Little
coordination of
labour market
and migration
policies.
Widening
spread
of
labour costs.
Social security
is increasing
left
to
individuals
choice
and
responsibility.

responsibility
for education
coordination.
Industry
involved
in
training
schemes.

retain lead role

in
education.
Strong
emphasis
to
strengthen EU
knowledge
base.

Regional
initiatives
to
balance labour
supply
and
demand. Large
regional labour
cost
differences.
Regional
differences
prevail. Social
security
becomes part
of
compensation
scheme.

Coordination of
labour market
and integration
policies.
Emphasis
on
tackling labour
market
imbalances.
Harmonisation
of
social
security system
at EU level.
Social security
remains in the
public sector.

of public and
private
education
schemes.
To
improve
the
economys
knowledge
base.
Labour market
and migration
policies
coordinated by
EU. Increase of
labour
mobility.
Mixed public
and privatised
social security
system with a
compulsory
system.

From the point of view of the 3D printing, the Local Standard seems to provide rather favorable context. Local
economies are inclined to be more independent. The idea that local consumption depends more on local
production is welcome even if the prices of the local products are somewhat higher than those transported from
China or from some other distant places. Values are not very favorable for large scale investments in transport
infrastructures at trans-regional level. Besides local production of energy, technology development is likely to
concentrate on increasing efficiency to compensate for higher fuel prices. Industry will also focus on
technologies to improve the maintenance, repair, and remanufacture of vehicles using printed spare parts.
Because of the consumer based production (prosumerism) using the 3D printing, the intelligence property rights
(IPR) will be more important. It depends on the contracts between the owners of IPR and small
companies/customers how the use of the 3D printing will develop in the long run. Surely, the production of
some components will still depend on large scale plants. Full lifetime control of vehicles and product liability
will be part of selling vehicles because of the high degree of awareness of citizens. In general, this might lead to
simpler and more harmonised vehicles design to allow for reconfiguration and local assembly favorable for 3D
printing. Vigilant consumer groups could place irrational constraints on production in this scenario and hamper
investment decisions of the manufacturing industry. Car sharing and carpooling could become dominant patterns
of vehicle use on local levels.
If there will be more trust on the market economy on the global level and the free trade will proceed (the Global
Economy), it is perhaps less favorable for the use of 3D printing in the EU countries. The division of the work
between developed and less developed countries is still the reasonable choice favoring transportation in big
container ships. If Russia will allow the cheap Nordic route for big container ships going from China to Europe,
it further improves possibilities for long distant transportation.
Surely also the Sustainable Times or the Focus Europe are still possible especially if the China and the US are
ready to work seriously in order to avoid the climate change. It is still possible though not probable that the UN
will be able to agree on the strict climate change mitigation program. In the long run, it seems to be anyway a
necessity. In the cases Sustainable Times or Focus Europe, the challenges of the climate change will have
especially important impact on the use of the 3D printing.

Future of Business Organisations and global scenarios

In 2008-2012 I was involved in a study that discussed the possible developments of the
global biosector. Related to that project in 2012, I made a global futures map that
updated the UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios
(http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.332.aspx.pdf). I used in that updating
some results of the Future of Business Organisations study.

I summarized and evaluated the study as follows:

Millennium Project1, organized in spring 2012 a global Delphi study Future of Business
Organisations (www.stateofthe future.org). For the Real Time Delphi process, the Delphi
managers formulated a series of hypotheses concerning the years 2020-2030. The
sources of the hypotheses were open source documents of globally acting consultant
firms and international organizations (e.g. European Commission). The hypotheses are
direct citations from the mentioned sources.
In this essay, I use the hypotheses and the comments of expert panelists as a basic
material for the updating of the Millennium scenarios. The developments suggested by
the hypotheses do not provide a consistent scenario. I have included to the hypotheses
critical comments made by Delphi panelists. Together the next ten hypotheses and
critical comments provide material to all updated Millennium scenarios 1-4 presented
near the end of the essay.

1. Globalisation will continue, with a growth of exports and of Direct Foreign

Investment (DFI) greater than that of GDP. The business as usual anticipation of
the Delphi managers based on different sources e.g. IMF, Goldman Sachs and
World Bank was that the average increase of global GDP will be around 4%, below
the average of 5.3% over the last 20 years. In 2030, exports will account for 33%
of Global GDP, as opposed to 26% in 2010 and 17% in 1990. Used mainly in the
Scenario 1. Critical comments: There seems to be a bifurcation, or maybe a
segmentation of societies into two groups, and it will take a long time, perhaps
several generations for that to iron itself out. The relationships between many
countries become severe (Israel - Turkey,Azerbaijan - Armenia,North Korea - other
Asian countries,Iran - European countries,etc.) It will cause protectionism on trade
and investments.
1

The Millennium Project which has 40 nodes in different countries of the world (e.g. in Finland) has no direct connections
to the UN Millennium Ecosystem assessment though its background is in the United Nations University and there exists
some links based on involved persons.

2.

Main future sectors will be: the aerospace industry, health and safety,
environment and climate change, energy, industries linked to sustainable mobility
and other industries linked to chemistry, engineering, transport, and agri-food. As
regards sectors associated with future technologies: nanotechnology, micro and
nano electronics, biotechnology, photonics, new materials and advanced
manufacturing technologies. Source: European Commission (2010) Used mainly in
the Scenario 3. Critical comments: To the mentioned future sectors, I would add the
IT industry and services, supporting all others sectors, educational sectors and
production of goods and the services related to the changing demographic
situation in many countries.

3. By 2030, biotechnology will be especially important in developing countries, as

regards agriculture (green biotechnology) and industry (white biotechnology), in
order to combat climate change, demographic evolution and the limitation of
natural resources. Source: RolandBerger (2012) Used in all scenarios. Critical
comment: yes, but it could be a double-edged sword (e.g. monopoly of technology
undermines rural farmers livelihood).
4. In 2040, the main global sectoral Clusters will be the following and located in:
- Asset management: London, New York, Singapore
- Pharmaceutical Industry: New York, Bern/Zrich, Singapore
- Automotive assembly: Sao Paulo, Nanjing (China), Tianjin (China)
- University education: New York, Boston, London
- Cinema and entertainment: Los Angeles, Mumbai, Shanghai
Source: PWC (2011) Used mainly in the Scenario 1.
Critical comment: See comments after the hypotheses
5. The BRIC countries will continue to be the most interesting markets for Direct
Foreign Investment in 2030. By 2030, the share of exports of the BRIC countries
compared with world exports will be on a par with the European (EU 27) export
share, of approximately 23%. Source: RolandBerger (2012), Used mainly in the
Scenario 1. Critical comment: Trends are already showing that some BRIC
countries' growth is slowing while some emerging economies are accelerating and
that trend could continue because of raw material and labor resources.
6. Next Eleven Countries: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria,
Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey and Vietnam. Their real GDP will grow by
5.9% annually over the next 20 years, reaching 30% of the total GDP of the BRIC
countries and 11% of world GDP. Source: RolandBerger (2012) Used mainly in the
Scenario 1. Critical comment: Depends on ability to eliminate or control corruption
and avoid civil war.
7. In the 2020s economic system, productive entrepreneurship will be acknowledged
and supported. It will be encouraged by a policy of stricter competition that will
better serve growth through innovation rather than by mergers and acquisitions.

Institutional structures will be established to provide long-term finance for

companies that enter new areas such as those of the low carbon economy, to
improve the use of existing technologies or transform cultural and creative value
into new commercially exploitable products and services, including investments in
brand value. Source: Levy et al. (2011) Used mainly in the Scenario 2. Critical
comment: I think that it is as likely to proceed towards social entrepreneurship as
focusing on growth, I dont take growth-driven policy as self-evident
8. In 2020 polarisation between large multinationals and small business projects
developed over a network will take place:
- On the one hand, there will be a market dominated by multinationals that will be
increasingly large and influential and will have a budget larger than many
countries.
- On the other, organisations will have smaller and less hierarchical structures
made up of networked professionals working on projects and in different countries.
Source: RolandBerger (2012) Used mainly in the Scenario 4. Critical comment: I
think that at least partly a polarisation already takes place, meaning powerful large
companies and flexible smaller companies with an advantage of quick adjusting to
changing circumstances. However, their mutual cooperation often has to be
established.
9. The 2020 decade will see a development in the concept of cooperatives as
organisations made up of various groups to achieve their specific common
objectives, in fields such as energy, health, mobility and the financial sector for
supporting local projects. In this context, to seek the size of company appropriate
to the organisation's objectives instead of growth as an end in itself, it will limit the
risk of losing direction and entering a spiral of "more growth or die". Source: ETUI /
IPA, Worker Participation 2030. Four scenarios Used mainly in the Scenario 3.
Critical comment: In a company of one or a few, maybe, but beyond a pipe dream
in an organization such as Ford, or Boeing, or Raython
10.Climate change, sustainability and the purchase of healthy products of natural
origin will increasingly become topics of interest for consumers all over the world.
As regards developments in technology, the implications of the method of
attracting consumers to adopt or purchase products will be increasingly clear, in
view of the increased information to which they have access. Used mainly in the
Scenario 3. Source: DELOITTE, Consumer 2020, 2011. Critical comment: I agree
there are big changes in store here, but it is more likely that the marketers use new
technology to sell to consumers who purchase whether or not their health or the
environment is improved. Examples: signs that recognize the consumer and
change their pitch accordingly.
In general, the results of the Delphi study were in line with the general conclusion of the
PWC (2011): we expect to see a general shift of the worlds largest clusters from
developed to emerging and developing nations as the centre of global economic gravity
continues to shift towards these countries. The report anticipated that the shift will
unlikely be uniform across the five industries that the report examined. For automotive
assembly, it is already well underway and set to

continue apace. For pharmaceuticals, asset management and filmed entertainment,

Asian clusters in particular are rising but the report expected developed economy
clusters to retain top position. While for industries such as tertiary education, the report
expected clusters in todays developed economies to remain significantly ahead of those
in developing economies in the medium to long term. The conclusions of the cited study
concerned just five assumed leading sectors of the 2040, but similar developments where
anticipated to realize also in other sectors and especially in those sectors that are not
directly related to the avoiding of the climate change.

A general conclusion based on the Delphi study is that Europe is losing its leading
position in the global sphere. As the report European Commission (2010) considers there
are surely, however promising prospects for Europe beside the ICT especially in green
sectors.

Europe already has a large, hi-tech space industry that supplies a significant
part of the world's commercial requirements for satellite manufacture. E.g.
Galileo/EGNOS and GMES are well established programmes.
Europes automotive sector is strong in developing and deploying clean and
energy-efficient vehicle technologies e.g. in battery technologies and potential
replacements for lithium. Europe is also strong in low emission aircraft and
ships.

EUs pharmaceutical and healthcare related, including medical devices,

industries are
world-leading sectors and prospects are good based on the increase of elderly
people in Europe.

The European construction sector can also make a substantial contribution to

responding to climate change and other environmental changes (e.g. wood
based construction.

Energy-intensive industries provide an important part of the value chain of the

manufacturing industry in the EU and have become one of the world leaders in
energy efficiency. They form an integral part of the industrial value chain and
manufacture a good part of industrial products with CO 2-reducing effect.

An important choice for Europe is related to the bio-based markets. With favourable
legislative framework , they could make a substantial contribution for the competitive
position of Europe. The right legislation and framework conditions will however be
needed to encourage uptake of renewable raw materials for industrial use (bioenergy

e.g.ethanol, wood and paper, bio-plastics, biolubricants, pharmaceuticals). In the long

run, a special challenge considers the genetic engineering of biomaterials including the
food. The EU Agro-Food Industry represents 2% of Europes GDP and 13.5% of total
manufacturing employment.