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Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary
Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary

Flood risk from dike failure

Dr. László Nagy

BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary

Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary
Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary
Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary
Flood risk from dike failure Dr. László Nagy BUTE Geotechnical Department Budapest, Hungary

Where we are ?

Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Where we are ?
Topography of Carpathian-Basin

Topography of Carpathian-Basin

Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Topography of Carpathian-Basin
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions

Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions

Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundations before the river regulation and dike constructions
Inundation map in the middle ages
Inundation map in the middle ages

Inundation map in the middle ages

Inundation map in the middle ages
Inundation map in the middle ages
Inundation map in the middle ages
Inundation map in the middle ages

Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary

Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Mean discharge of rivers entering and leaving Hungary
Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km
Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km

Hungarian answer:

Large scale dike construction from 1846

Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km dikes

4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km dikes in the Carpathian basin

Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km dikes
Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km dikes
Hungarian answer: Large scale dike construction from 1846 4200 km dikes in Hungary 11000 km dikes

Facts about the Hungarian flood control

arable land railways main roads communities population affected total value at risk

arable land railways main roads communities population affected total value at risk
arable land railways main roads communities population affected total value at risk
arable land railways main roads communities population affected total value at risk
arable land railways main roads communities population affected total value at risk

40%

32 % 15 %

646

2,3 millions

2,5×GDP

roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
roads communities population affected total value at risk 40% 32 % 15 % 646 2,3 millions
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike
Carpathian Basin More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike

Carpathian Basin

More than 2200 dike failures in the last 200 years Duna-valley 547 dike failures Tisza-valley
More than 2200 dike failures
in the last 200 years
Duna-valley
547 dike failures
Tisza-valley
1269 dike failures

pieces

before 1800 1806 1813 1820 1827 1834 1841 1848 1855 1862 1869 1876 1883 1890 1897 1904 1911 1918 1925 1932 1939 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1974 1981 1988 1995 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike
1974 1981 1988 1995 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike
1974 1981 1988 1995 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike

Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200 years

< 1000 km dike

100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
1888 1876 1846 1900
1888
1876
1846
1900
100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
100 80 60 40 20 0 Dike failures in the Carpathian basin in the last 200
200 150 Tisza valley Duna valley Carpathian basin 100 50 0
200
150
Tisza valley
Duna valley
Carpathian basin
100
50
0

Jan.

Febr.

Mar.

Apr.

M aj.

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sept.

Okt.

Nov.

Dec.

Carpathian basin dike breaches by ten days period

50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian
50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian
50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian
50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian
50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian
50 0 Jan. Febr. Mar. Apr. M aj. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Okt. Nov. Dec. Carpathian

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ice jam 88 pieces snow melt 393 pieces rain 304 pieces
ice jam 88 pieces
snow melt 393 pieces
rain 304 pieces

jan.

feb.

m arc.

apr.

m aj

jun.

jul.

aug

szept.

okt.

nov.

dec.

Tisza-valley dike failures distribution by ten days period

jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
jan. feb. m arc. apr. m aj jun. jul. aug szept. okt. nov. dec. Tisza-valley dike
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 ice jam 54 % snow

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ice jam 54 % snow melt 13 % rain 33 %
ice jam
54 %
snow melt 13 %
rain
33 %

Jan.

Febr.

Marc.

Apr.

Maj.

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sept.

Okt.

Nov.

Dec.

Duna-valley dike breaches distribution by ten days period

Origin of the flood causing failure

ice jam flood

not well identified

13%

20%
20%

snowmelt

26%

rainfall

27%

rainfall and snowmelt

14%

After 1816 data

failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt
failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt
failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt
failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt
failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt
failure ice jam flood not well identified 13% 20% snowmelt 26% rainfall 27% rainfall and snowmelt

Distribution of dike failure mechanism

overtopping

68,2%

From 1168 data

subsoil failure

mechanism overtopping 68,2% From 1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure

7,8%

deliberate cut

7,6%

From 1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability

wave scour

0,6%

structure 4,6%

dike stability

6,3%

other known

3,4%

1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%
1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%
1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%
1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%
1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%
1168 data subsoil failure 7,8% deliberate cut 7,6% wave scour 0,6% structure 4,6% dike stability 6,3%

After 19 dry years in the Tisza-valley large floods were in 1998–2001:

years in the Tisza-valley large floods were in 1998–2001: 1998. November 1999. March-April - Bodrog and
years in the Tisza-valley large floods were in 1998–2001: 1998. November 1999. March-April - Bodrog and

1998. November

1999. March-April - Bodrog and Middle-Tisza

1999. June 2000. April-May 2001. March

- Upper-Tisza

- Tarna, Zagyva, Ipoly and Tarnoca - Bodrog and Middle-Tisza - Upper-Tisza

Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work

Flood

defence

work

Flood defence work

Szamos

Szamos Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of
Szamos Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of

Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the Ukr-Hun border

Tisza Borzsa
Tisza
Borzsa
Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the
Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the
Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the
Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the

Túr

Inundations due to the dike breaches in the Upper- Tisza basin in the vicinity of the
Very old dike, very loose dike
Very old dike, very loose dike
Very old dike, very loose dike

Very old dike, very loose dike

Very old dike, very loose dike
Very old dike, very loose dike
Very old dike, very loose dike
Very old dike, very loose dike
Failed cross section
Failed cross section

Failed cross section

Failed cross section
Failed cross section
Failed cross section
Failed cross section

Slope slides along Tisza right bank, Tarpa-Tivadar section in 2001

16 Slope slides

occured in a 2,700 m section in 3,5 hrs!

slides along Tisza right bank, Tarpa-Tivadar section in 2001 16 Slope slides occured in a 2,700
slides along Tisza right bank, Tarpa-Tivadar section in 2001 16 Slope slides occured in a 2,700
slides along Tisza right bank, Tarpa-Tivadar section in 2001 16 Slope slides occured in a 2,700

Flood defence work

Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work
Flood defence work

Dike breach, River Tisza right bank,

Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm

Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach, River Tisza right bank, Tarpa - Tivadar section, 54+650 and 55+350 tkm
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001

Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001

Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Tisza at Tarpa 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Dike breach on river Túr 2001

Dike breach on river Túr 2001

Dike breach on river Túr 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Tákos (Hungary) 2001

Tákos (Hungary) 2001

Tákos (Hungary) 2001
Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)
Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)

Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)

Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)
Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)
Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)
Bagolyszállás (Ukraine)

Damages at 2001 year flood in Hungary

Inundated territory Endangered villages Inundated villages

No. of evacuated people 11 000 person

Damaged properties Reconstruction cost

209 km 2

20

8

3071

490 million €

villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20
villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20
villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20
villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20
villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20
villages No. of evacuated people 11 000 person Damaged properties Reconstruction cost 209 km 2 20

Safety strategy

Need dike construction

Safety strategy Need dike construction
Safety strategy Need dike construction
Safety strategy Need dike construction
Safety strategy Need dike construction
Safety strategy Need dike construction
Safety strategy Need dike construction

Safety strategy

Need dike construction Same elevation dike

Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike

Safety strategy

Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike

Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike

Safety strategy

Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor

Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor
Safety strategy Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor

Safety strategy

Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability

Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability
Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability
Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability
Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability
Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability
Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability

Safety strategy

Need dike construction Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk

Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk
Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk
Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk
Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk
Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk
Same elevation dike Same cross section dike Same safety factor Same failure probability Same risk

Thank you for your kind attention!

Thank you for your kind attention!
Thank you for your kind attention!
Thank you for your kind attention!
Thank you for your kind attention!
Thank you for your kind attention!
Thank you for your kind attention!
Dangers in Hungary according to water
Dangers in Hungary according to water
Dangers in Hungary according to water
Dangers in Hungary according to water
Dangers in Hungary according to water
Dangers in Hungary according to water

Dangers in Hungary according to water

Dangers in Hungary according to water