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Working with real world Data:

The importance of diving deeper


into reports & the data behind them
Brief by Robert Sentamu
Wilsken Agencies Ltd

Data--information--knowledge--wisdom
Information increasingly forms the basis of
competitive advantage, and organizations must
explicitly articulate and define the role information
will play in the design and execution of their
competitive strategies.
However, we must also remember that information
is not free and does not always flow freely and in this
regard information is often open to manipulation to
sometimes achieve dubious ends.

We therefore must conduct due diligence on


the information we use we are
to
Be accountable
Be transparent
Support our decisions and policy development
Provide information to the public
Provide great value to us as public figures

How to conduct due diligence on data and


information
Key parameter/questions to consider
Significance
Representation
Methodology
Context
Analysis
Implementer (who are the actors?)
Where do you stand in all this? (Triangulation)

What is polling?
A count
A census
A vote
A question
A survey
A sample
Question: what is common to each of the above?

Therefore public opinion polling is:


A count/survey/sample/census of public
opinion regarding various issues or
questions

Why do we do public opinion research?


To replace our assumptions about what the
public thinks with facts.
To contribute to the debate on important public
issues.
To contribute to decision making about policy
priorities and positions.
To provide input to strategies for addressing
Peoples needs.
To provide indicators for evaluation and impact
assessment.

Alternative ways/Approaches employed in conducting


public opinion research

Qualitative methodologies e.g. Focus Group


discussions, workshops, in-depth one-on-one
interviews, rapid appraisal assessments, desk
assessments, literature reviews etc.
Quantitative methodologies such as:
representative sample surveys, Census counts,
polls etc

Highlights of the qualitative approach


It is structured mainly to probe and understand depth and
the WHY for opinions, perceptions and attitudes held by
the public.
Major advantage: enriches depth of understanding
and reasons behind public
opinion
Major disadvantage: When conducted in isolation,
results cannot be quantified and
therefore projected on the main
stream population

Highlights of the quantitative approach


It structured mainly to measure, gauge and
determine public opinion
Major advantage: Methodology allows you to
fairly accurately
estimate/rank importance and
determine prioritization of issues
by the public
Major disadvantage: Methodologies are not very
good at investigating depth of
opinion

The quantitative approach of


conducting public opinion research

Highlights of the quantitative methodology


Revolves a round surveying a
representative sample of the public or the
main research/survey target population
Utilizes mainly a survey instrument (a
structured questionnaire) made up of
various question items that measure
reliably constructs of the issues being
investigated in a valid manner

What is a representative sample of the main


research/survey target population?

A sample of the main population with the same


demographic characteristics (distribution and
variations) as the main survey target population
(Universe)
It is the minimum number of cases required to
allow statistical inferences of the diversity
existing in the main survey target population at a
set margin of error and degree of confidence in
the results

Analogy
Surveying a representative sample of the main
target population is like testing for salt in a dish
of soup; you do not have to scoop whole plate to
determine the salt concentration.
Likewise, surveying a representative sample of the
main survey target population is preceded by
sampling the various homogeneous groupings
(dishes of soups) Making up the diversity of the
population

Sampling

How do you determine the various homogeneous (diversity) groups


existing in the main target population?

Establish how opinion, perceptions & attitudes


regarding the survey investigation issue (s) may
vary by the demographic variables of the main
target population such as: Urban-rural divide,
region, gender, age, education etc.
Then employ rigorous scientifically proven
random sampling procedures to selected
representative sample from each of the
identified demographic segments by which
opinion regards the survey investigation issue
varies

Sampling
The Idea behind sampling is to maintain the principle of
randomness throughout the process of selecting sample
areas to selection of the final individual survey
respondent
The principle of randomness entails that all elements of
the demographic segments of the target survey
population should have an equal and proportionate
probability of being selected into the sample
NB: There exists time tested scientifically proved
procedures for doing representative random sampling
(refer to: sample surveys with special reference to Africa
by: prof. Ben Kiregyera)

Reliability of polling results


Reliability of quantitative public opinion research (poll) is
dependent on the following:
1.
2.
3.

4.
5.

Employment of appropriate sampling procedures


Strict field implementation of the designed sampling
procedures
Having a valid instrument (questionnaire) measuring
the investigation issues consistently and reliably
Ensuring that any translations of the instrument retains
the meaning and structure of the origin question
Ensuring that field implementation of the questionnaire
uses the English version or the translation and not
paraphrases of the interviewers

How do validate reliability of public


opinion results
Match demographic distribution of results of survey/poll with census
data of the main survey target population
Check for scientific rigor of sampling procedures employed

Check for internal consistence of the results vis-a-vis your individual


perceptions of extent of issues measured
Compare consistence or divergence of current poll results with
results from previous polls similar polls
Check for facial validity of the questions asked to establish if they
measure the issues intended to be measured
Assess degree of accuracy in predicting outcomes

Dos and Donts of utilizing Public opinion poll results


Read the entire report and not just part of the report. There is no
such thing as an inaccurate poll before you read it.
Refrain from making up your mind before reading the entire poll
report (always keep an open mind). There is often something for
every one
Consider the results carefully even if you do not like or disagree with
them. What if they are accurate, you will miss out on acquiring an
informed position

Please remember that there is no such thing as useless information,


even knowing about inaccurate information is good because it
elevates your informed position

Dos and Donts final point


You cannot dispute a poll by just
disagreeing with the results; if you want to,
do it on scientific grounds or provide
alternative prove in the same scientific
vein and rigor.

Group assignments
Examine AfroBarometer Uganda R5
results handed out and assess the validity
and reliability of the results

Thank you for being good participants

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