Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
REGIONAL UPDATE
1/28/2015
CHART: World GDP versus World MSCI Stock Index ............................................................................................................................... 308
CHART: Baltic Dry Perspective Slowing Global Aggregate Demand Growth Rate ............................................................................ 309
CHART: World Trade versus Central Bank Balance Sheet Growth ......................................................................................................... 309
CHART: Falling Global LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) ....................................................................................................................... 310
CHART: World GDP Economic Forecast 2014 ........................................................................................................................................... 311
CHART: World GDP Economic Expectations versus MSCI Equity Index ............................................................................................... 311
CHART: Fiscal Adjustments Required Deficit Reductions for Fiscal Sustainability .......................................................................... 312
CHART: Shifting Global GDP Share ............................................................................................................................................................ 313
CHART: Over $10 Trillion Pumped Into Global Economy by Developed Economies ............................................................................ 314
CHART: Eventually All this Debt Must be Rolled over or Paid Out ......................................................................................................... 314
CHART: Future Economic Growth a Sub 2% Trend .................................................................................................................................. 315
CHART: Debt and Fiscal Drag Are Significant Factors Affecting Global Growth .................................................................................. 315
CHART: Slowing Global Aggregate Demand Shows in Shrinking FDI .................................................................................................... 316
CHART: Liquidity Drain in US in 2H 2014 ................................................................................................................................................... 317
RESEARCH OF NOTE .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 318
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK 3 of 10 Largest Economies Have Fallen into Recession ................................................................................ 318
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK This is the Biggest Risk to the World's Economy............................................................................................ 320
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK What is global market turbulence telling us? .................................................................................................. 324
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK Darker Outlook Has Bond Market Rethinking Odds of Economic Downturn.................................................. 327
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ............................................................................................................. 329
NEW-GLOBAL OUTLOOK The Last Days Of The Growth Story? ............................................................................................................. 331
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - THE ECONOMIC ROADMAP AHEAD: It Isn't That Complicated! ............................................................................ 332
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - 20 Signs That the Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire ................................................................ 337
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ......................................................................................... 339
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Debt Crosses $100 Trillion, Rises By $30 Trillion Since 2007 ................................................................ 342
GLOBAL OUTLOOK The US as the Global Consumption Engine to See Sub 2% Trend Growth .................................................... 345
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat .................................................................................................................. 348
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ............................................................................................................... 350
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility .............................................................................. 353
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap .............................................................................................................................................. 355
ECONOMIC CUTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 359
CHARTS OF NOTE ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 359
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 3 ................................................................................................................................... 359
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record 2 ................................................................................................................................... 362
CHART IMFs Delusional Forecasting Record - 1 .................................................................................................................................... 362
IMF To Slash Economic Growth Forecast... AGAIN - Still Full of Hockey sticks ............................................................................................ 362
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ............................................................................................................................................................ 368
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AGAIN!............................................................................................................................................ 378
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ........................................................................................................................................................ 380
ECONOMIC WARNINGS....................................................................................................................................................................................... 383
G20 WARNS Need to Add $2T in Economic Activity & Tens of Millions of Jobs ........................................................................................ 383
IMF WARNS .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 384
NEW-IMF sees risk of new eurozone .......................................................................................................................................................... 384
IMF Tells Central Europe to Spend More .................................................................................................................................................... 386
Japanese & Spanish Debt Unsustainable ................................................................................................................................................... 389
Global Recovery Faltering, Reduces Global Growth to Just Above 3% Global Recession Level .............................................................. 391
BIS WARNS ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 393
Monetary Policy At Its Limits ........................................................................................................................................................................ 399
WORLD BANK WARNS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 400
Social Unrest Stems from Shrinking Disposable Income. Jobs are the central issue. ..................................................................... 402
EMERGING MARKETS - Fragile Five: The new focus of currency wars ............................................................................................... 778
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Redux? ..................................................................................................................................................... 779
EMERGING MARKETS - Losing Their Punch ......................................................................................................................................... 784
EMERGING MARKETS - Risk-On!............................................................................................................................................................. 786
EMERGING MARKETS - Asia, BRIC, Emerging Markets Crater IBM Earnings .................................................................................... 787
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted ................................................................................................................................ 789
EMERGING MARKETS - Increasing Liquidity Problems In Selected Markets .................................................................................... 790
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ................................................... 796
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" ................................................................................................................................... 801
EMERGING MARKETS - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ..................................................... 805
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain .......................................... 807
CYBER SPYING .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 810
CURRENCY WARS BACK ON Rate Wars Reversed With Un-Taper ............................................................................................................... 811
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................... 811
CURRENCY WARS - A Major Shift ............................................................................................................................................................... 811
BATTLEFIELD - Combatants & Belligerents............................................................................................................................................... 815
BATTLEFIIELD - The Race to Debase ......................................................................................................................................................... 816
JAPAN - The Destabilizing Agent .................................................................................................................................................................... 818
EUROPE - Euro Exposed ................................................................................................................................................................................ 818
ARGENTINA - Here we Go Again! .................................................................................................................................................................. 820
VENEZUELLA - Bad Situation ......................................................................................................................................................................... 821
BRAZIL - No One Wants to Listen ................................................................................................................................................................... 821
SWITZERLAND - No Choice ........................................................................................................................................................................... 821
SINGAPORE - Hot Money ............................................................................................................................................................................... 822
UK- Pound Joins War .................................................................................................................................................................................... 823
CYBER WARS Growing Threat & the Security-Surveillance Complex .............................................................................................................. 824
NEW-RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................... 824
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - NSA Whistleblower Example: Booz Hamilton ....................................................................... 827
SECURITY SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - Growing Without Public Control or Supervision! ................................................................. 830
CHARTS Economies Now Need More Debt to Generate Growth ......................................................................................................... 1547
CHARTS Emerging Markets Benchmark Underperforms US Index ...................................................................................................... 1547
CHARTS - Reserves versus World ............................................................................................................................................................ 1547
CHARTS - Current Account Balances versus GDP .................................................................................................................................. 1549
CHARTS - Emerging Markets Index versus MSCI World Index ............................................................................................................... 1550
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Inflation ............................................................................................................................................................ 1551
CHARTS - SINGAPORE - Exports ............................................................................................................................................................ 1552
CHARTS - SOUTH KOREA ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1553
CHARTS - TURKEY - Spreads .................................................................................................................................................................. 1554
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1555
EMERGING MARKETS - Forced Changes & Advancements in the Normal "Plundering" Strategy ........................................................ 1555
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted ................................................................................................................................. 1556
EMERGING MARKETS - The plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan. ......................................................... 1557
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning ........................................... 1562
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia................................................................................................................ 1562
EMERGING MARKETS - Global Bond Yields React Together ................................................................................................................. 1564
EMERGING MARKETS - A Bumpy Ride for Emerging Markets ............................................................................................................... 1566
EMERGING MARKETS - Stunning Withdrawals ....................................................................................................................................... 1572
EMERGING MARKETS - Bond Outflows Accelerating ............................................................................................................................. 1573
EMERGING MARKETS - This will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem Like an Early Warning ................................................................ 1575
EMERGING MARKETS - Developing Nations Feeling the Pain of Global Deleveraging Acceleration .................................................... 1577
EMERGING MARKETS - The Impact of "TAPER" .................................................................................................................................... 1580
SITUATIONAL ASSESSEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................... 1584
EMERGING MARKETS - What you Need to Know ...................................................................................................................................... 1584
EMERGING MARKETS - Comparative Ease of Doing Business ............................................................................................................. 1586
EMERGING MARKETS - Importance of Employment, Equality and Per Capital Income ........................................................................ 1587
ASEAN ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1590
NEW--ASEAN: A New Common Market.................................................................................................................................................... 1590
ASIA ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1594
ASIA: CHARTS - REVENUE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1594
ASIA: CHARTS EXPENDITURES .......................................................................................................................................................... 1594
ASIA: CHARTS SPENDING GAPS ........................................................................................................................................................ 1596
ASIA: CHARTS DEBT SERVICE ........................................................................................................................................................... 1596
ASIA: CHARTS - SINGAPORE ................................................................................................................................................................. 1598
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI May 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 1599
ASIA: CHARTS INDONESIA CPI Aug 2013 .................................................................................................................................... 1599
ASIA: CHARTS A Short Term Dead Cat Bounce? .............................................................................................................................. 1600
ASIA: CHARTS Inflation Problems Abound ........................................................................................................................................... 1601
ASIA: CHARTS Healthier Public Debt and Borrowing Positions than DM ............................................................................................. 1601
ASIA: CHARTS - AUSTRALIA ................................................................................................................................................................... 1602
ASIA - Regional Risk-Reward .................................................................................................................................................................... 1604
ASIA - Credit Contraction Problems .......................................................................................................................................................... 1605
ASIA - Corporate Debt Levels Reflect Unintended Consequences of Mispricing & Mal-Investment ....................................................... 1607
ASIA - Synchronized Markets .................................................................................................................................................................... 1609
ASIA - Caution Advised Regarding Positive South Korea Export Turnaround ......................................................................................... 1611
ASIA - Export Growth Looks Similar to Pre-2008 ...................................................................................................................................... 1612
ASIA - Global Slowing Quickly a Worsening Situation Across Asia .......................................................................................................... 1616
ASIA - Risks All on the Downside for Asia ................................................................................................................................................ 1617
ASIA - Demographic Headwinds ............................................................................................................................................................... 1620
ASIA - Pronounced Flight to Singapore Safety ......................................................................................................................................... 1621
LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1623
VENEZUELA Signs of a Crack-up Boom and Dictatorship .................................................................................................................... 1623
VENEZUELA - Shortages & Hyperinflation ............................................................................................................................................... 1623
MIDDLE EAST ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 1625
TURKEY ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1625
NEW-CHARTS Consumer Credit Drove Household Debt in Q2 Mortgage Debt Lagged .................................................................. 1746
NEW-CHARTS Discretionary Spending Showing Signs of Cracking..................................................................................................... 1746
CHARTS - Real Disposable Personal Income .......................................................................................................................................... 1747
CHARTS - Real Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................................................................................... 1749
CHARTS - Consumer Credit Deleveraging ............................................................................................................................................... 1750
CHARTS - Core Retail Growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 1751
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1752
RESEARCH - Golden Era of the 1950s/60s Was an Anomaly, Not the Default Setting .......................................................................... 1752
RESEARCH - 95% of Consumer Credit Lending Going towards Student & Car Loans ................................................................... 1754
RESEARCH - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ..................................................................................................................................... 1756
RESEARCH - Gallup Survey Shows -10% Reduction in Christmas Buying Plans ........................................................................... 1759
RESEARCH - The Wal-Mart Measure or How the US Consumer Is the Global Engine .................................................................... 1760
RESEARCH - A Sequential Decline in Wages ....................................................................................................................................... 1761
RESEARCH - Final Sales Signals Pending Potential Recession on the Horizon ............................................................................. 1762
RESEARCH - Consumers Using Savings to Maintain Life Style ........................................................................................................ 1762
RESEARCH - The Destruction of America's Middle Class .................................................................................................................. 1765
RESEARCH - Dramatic Slowing in Restaurant Business .................................................................................................................... 1765
RESEARCH - Signs of Serious Troubles .................................................................................................................................................. 1766
RESEARCH - Falling Real Disposable Income means Falling Consumption ................................................................................... 1769
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 1771
BUSINESS CYCLE - GROWTH .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1776
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1776
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1776
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1780
NEW-CHARTS Long Term US GDP Growth Estimates FOMC versus CBO ..................................................................................... 1780
NEW-CHARTS US Real Domestic Product Running Out of Runway ................................................................................................. 1780
NEW-CHARTS Steadily Falling Real US Growth Estimates .................................................................................................................. 1782
NEW-CHARTS US Power Consumption Tells the Real Story of US Growth & De-Industrialization .................................................... 1783
NEW-CHARTS US Real Trade Gap (Ex-Petroleum) ............................................................................................................................. 1783
NEW-CHARTS Consecutive Quarters of Contracting Growth Looming ................................................................................................ 1784
NEW-CHARTS Bloombergs Consensus GDP Forecasts 2011-2014 ................................................................................................ 1785
NEW-CHARTS GDP Growth During Current Recovery Lags Past Expectations .................................................................................. 1785
NEW-CHARTS Trends of Output, Hours and Productivity ..................................................................................................................... 1786
NEW-CHARTS Weak US Capacity Utilization ....................................................................................................................................... 1787
CHARTS A US Recession Likely IF Liquidity is not increased and TAPER Sustained ......................................................................... 1787
CHARTS Barrons Sees 4% Growth The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator ............................................................................................. 1788
CHARTS Firms Revising Lower Q1 Growth on Weakening Retail Sales .............................................................................................. 1789
CHARTS Negative Economic Surprises Began in November ............................................................................................................... 1789
CHARTS What Americans Experience Daily and its Isnt Growth ......................................................................................................... 1790
CHARTS - Manufacturing .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1791
CHARTS - Exports ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1791
CHARTS - Durable Goods ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1792
CHARTS - NFIB Small Business CAPEX .................................................................................................................................................. 1792
CHARTS - US Manufacturing Conditions Deteriorating ............................................................................................................................ 1793
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1794
RESEARCH - US Q1 GDP ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1794
RESEARCH - US GDP Growth Forecasts ................................................................................................................................................ 1799
RESEARCH - Economic Recoveries Don't Look Like This! ................................................................................................................ 1799
RESEARCH - 2nd Worst Decade in Over 220 Years (And Getting Worse) ........................................................................................ 1800
RESEARCH - US Economy is being fundamentally transformed ............................................................................................................. 1802
RESEARCH - Shrinking CAPEX, Expanding Buybacks and Dividends ............................................................................................. 1805
REFERENCE - Prior Posts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1809
RESEARCH - US Economic Recovery Has Peaked ............................................................................................................................. 1809
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 1814
ECONOMIC CYCLE, INVESTMENT CYCLE, SECTOR ROTATION ................................................................................................................. 1817
US PUBLIC POLICY BEGINNINGS OF SOCIAL UNREST & THE MILITARIZATION OF POLICE...................................... 1825
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1826
NEW-LATEST ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1826
NEW-CORPORATE INVERSIONS ........................................................................................................................................................... 1826
NEW-FERGUSON ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1827
NEW-MILITARIZATION OF POLICE ......................................................................................................................................................... 1827
POLLS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1828
INCARCERATION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1829
FLAWED TAX POLICY .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1829
MINIMUM WAGE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1829
SOCIAL CANCERS ................................................................................................................................................................................... 1829
CORRUPTION & MALFEASANTS ............................................................................................................................................................ 1829
INEQUALITY .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1830
CREEPING SOCIALISM ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1830
POLICIAL PARALYSIS .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1830
STATE OF THE UNION ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1830
NSA-SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX......................................................................................................................................... 1831
OBAMACARE ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1832
GENERAL PUBLIC POLICY...................................................................................................................................................................... 1834
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1835
NEW-CHARTS Lack of Trust in Government to Handle International & Domestic Problems ............................................................... 1835
NEW-CHARTS Changing Presidential Stance ....................................................................................................................................... 1836
NEW-CHARTS Public Support to Withdraw from Union ........................................................................................................................ 1837
CHARTS - US Incarceration Rate Out of Control ...................................................................................................................................... 1837
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1838
POLICY - The Death Cross of American Business ............................................................................................................................... 1838
POLICY - The State of the Union I have a Dream! .......................................................................................................................... 1840
POLICY - A self-destructive path toward oblivion ................................................................................................................................ 1844
POLICY - Indictment of US Public, Fiscal & Monetary Policy ............................................................................................................... 1849
POLICY - The Crisis of Trust Continues to Worsen ............................................................................................................................. 1862
POLICY - The Stunning Truth about Inequality In America ................................................................................................................. 1863
POLICY - Pointing US towards Government Dependence .................................................................................................................. 1864
POLICY - Yet another Game of Deception ............................................................................................................................................. 1868
POLICY - Obamacare A Flawed Public Policy Implementation ........................................................................................................... 1872
POLICY - Financial Repression and Manipulated Illusions ....................................................................................................................... 1875
Manipulating Bad Financial Data ........................................................................................................................................................... 1875
Manipulating Bad Nuclear Facts ............................................................................................................................................................ 1876
Manipulating Oil Spill Info ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1877
Manipulating Data on Other Environmental Issues ............................................................................................................................... 1877
Manipulating Food Safety Data .............................................................................................................................................................. 1878
Manipulating Health Safety Data ........................................................................................................................................................... 1878
Manipulating Metrics for War ................................................................................................................................................................. 1878
The Core Problem .................................................................................................................................................................................. 1878
POLICY - US Economic Decline is Obvious to Anyone Caring to Look ............................................................................................ 1879
POLICY - Policy Uncertainty and Confidence in Monetary Policy Direction is exposed .................................................................... 1882
POLICY - "What is good for GM is good for America" is no longer correct...................................................................................... 1884
POLICY - Where is the Logic In US Public Policy ................................................................................................................................ 1885
POLICY - What is the Real Driving Force Behind the New Immigration Law? ................................................................................. 1888
POLICY - Crony Capitalism and How America Lost its Way! .............................................................................................................. 1891
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................................................... 1895
MONETARY POLICY - TAPER IMPLEMENTATION & A 2ND HALF LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE ................................................................. 1900
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1900
LATEST ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1900
BERNANKE YELLEN/FISHER TRANSITION ........................................................................................................................................ 1902
FED POST DECEMBER TAPER ........................................................................................................................................................... 1904
FED PRE-DECEMBER TAPER .............................................................................................................................................................. 1905
TAPER ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1908
TAPER - Fed December 2013 FOMC "TAPER" .................................................................................................................................. 1910
TAPER - The Last Time a Major Central Bank "Tapered" QE .......................................................................................................... 1911
TAPER - FOMC QE Meeting ................................................................................................................................................................. 1913
TAPER - The Fed Cannot Possibly "Exit" Without The Market Crumbling .................................................................................... 1915
TAPER - It Matters and the Fed Has Few Options As Quality Collateral Disappears. .................................................................. 1917
TAPER - Look for QE to Morph Into Quantitative Education ........................................................................................................ 1919
TAPER - Why Fed Bond Buying Can't Go on Indefinitely and Why TAPER .................................................................................. 1923
TAPER - Political "Push-Back" by the Fed ........................................................................................................................................ 1924
TAPER - Ending QE Will Pressure Fiscal Policy............................................................................................................................... 1926
TAPER - Delay Risks Bond Market Volatility as Private Availability Steadily Shrinks ................................................................. 1930
TAPER - Clearly a Bluff or Muddled Policy ....................................................................................................................................... 1933
TAPER - Why is the Fed Talking TAPER? ......................................................................................................................................... 1935
TAPER - The Fed is Unlikely to Taper ................................................................................................................................................ 1938
TAPER - Fed Trapped in a Box ........................................................................................................................................................... 1940
TAPER - The Fed Taper Playbook ...................................................................................................................................................... 1942
TAPER - TAPER Put On Hold .............................................................................................................................................................. 1943
QUEEN YELLEN ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1946
YELLEN - QEeen YELLEN TESTIMONY - Dampens Taper Bet ........................................................................................................ 1947
VOLKER RULE .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1950
VOLKER - Dodd- Frank Never Had a Chance .......................................................................................................................................... 1951
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 1953
NEW-CHARTS: Debt Needed to Create $1 GDP ......................................................................................................................................... 1953
NEW-CHARTS: Markets May be Ahead of Slowing Liquidity Flow Rates .................................................................................................... 1953
NEW-CHARTS: Primary Dealer Repo Fails .................................................................................................................................................. 1954
NEW-CHARTS: Repo Volumes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1954
NEW-CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ......................................................................................................................................... 1955
NEW-CHARTS: Repo volumes Agency + MBS ......................................................................................................................................... 1955
NEW-CHARTS: Feds Reverse Repo Agreements ....................................................................................................................................... 1956
NEW-CHARTS: Why Does the Fed Need Such a Large Options Trading Contract with ALL Exchanges? ................................................ 1957
NEW-CHARTS: 10 Year Yield Suggests End to Yellen Honeymoon ........................................................................................................... 1958
NEW-CHARTS: Capitalism Doesnt Work Without Savings for Investment Where is the Savings? ....................................................... 1958
NEW-CHARTS: Net National Savings Rate .................................................................................................................................................. 1959
NEW-CHARTS: Mispricing of Risk Reaching Extremes ............................................................................................................................... 1959
NEW-CHARTS: Unless you were a Banker, ZIRP Has Accomplished Zilch! ............................................................................................... 1960
NEW-CHARTS: Ratio of Capital v Consumer Goods Production ................................................................................................................. 1961
NEW-CHARTS: Feds Targeted Credit Growth Opportunities ...................................................................................................................... 1962
NEW-CHARTS: 90 Day Delinquent Loans by Type Student Loans a Growing Problem .......................................................................... 1962
NEW-CHARTS: A Third of US GDP is Now Going to Repay Interest & Principle on Loans ........................................................................ 1963
MONETARY - The Federal Reserve is at the very heart of our economic problems ............................................................................ 2102
MONETARY - FED Inflation & Deflator ......................................................................................................................................................... 2104
REFERENCE - Prior Posts .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2106
RESEARCH - Reduction at the Core of the Growth of the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet ............................................................... 2106
RESEARCH - Fed's Excess Reserves are 51% Foreign Banks, 49% Domestic ...................................................................................... 2109
RESEARCH - A Game of Calculated Deception is Evolving to Something Worse ............................................................................... 2111
RESEARCH - A Loan Distribution Credit Bubble ..................................................................................................................................... 2112
RESEARCH - QE to be replaced with Guidance, Thresholds and Promises ......................................................................................... 2113
RESEARCH - Bernanke in a Box and Talking Out of Both Sides of Your Mouth .................................................................................... 2115
RESEARCH - Duration Extraction: The Hidden Fed Game ..................................................................................................................... 2116
RESEARCH - The Fed's Stated Guidance Sign-Posts ............................................................................................................................. 2118
RESEARCH - An Artificial Market............................................................................................................................................................... 2120
RESEARCH - Bank Reserves A Ticking Bomb, But Who Will Be Caught in the Blast? ........................................................................ 2120
RESEARCH - QE An Intentionally Broken Mechanism Due to 2008 Policy Payable Interest on Bank Reserves ............................ 2124
RESEARCH - QE Ineffective In Increasing GDP ....................................................................................................................................... 2125
MONETARY: Helicopter Money of Central Bank Bond Purchases are Forever ...................................................................................... 2126
MONETARY: Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion and the Theoretical Path to SPX of 1950 ............................................................ 2128
MONETARY: Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion versus CPI ......................................................................................................... 2130
MONETARY: The Fed Model No Longer Prices Risk ................................................................................................................................ 2131
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2139
REPO FAILS ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2140
REVERSE REPO Feds Stealth Program to Protect Markets .......................................................................................................................... 2140
FISCAL POLICY A SHRINKING BUDGET DEFICIT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS ................................................................. 2142
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2142
LATEST ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2142
FISCAL MATTERS ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2144
CHARTS & TABLES OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2146
NEW-CHARTS Employed Population of America Tax Exposure ........................................................................................................... 2146
NEW-CHARTS Interest Costs to Dwarf Virtually Every Federal Expense................................................................................................. 2146
NEW-CHARTS Looming Increases in Baby-Boomer Driven Deficits ........................................................................................................ 2146
NEW-CHARTS Federal GAAP Based Deficit Growth & Federal Obligations Growth ............................................................................... 2147
NEW-CHARTS US Has the Highest Nominal Corporate Tax Rate in the Industrialized World .............................................................. 2148
NEW-CHARTS US Non-Financial Debt-to-GDP Since 1952 ..................................................................................................................... 2148
CHARTS - US Government Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................... 2149
CHARTS - Government Receipts & Outlay Growth Improves Significantly .................................................................................................. 2149
CHARTS - Federal Budget Surplus / Deficit .................................................................................................................................................. 2149
CHARTS - Real Federal Government Purchases ......................................................................................................................................... 2150
CHARTS - US Trade Balance Improvement ................................................................................................................................................. 2150
CHARTS - Growth & Jobs ............................................................................................................................................................................. 2151
CHARTS - Taxes & Spending ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2155
CHARTS - Politics & Policy ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2158
CHARTS - The Stakes ................................................................................................................................................................................... 2159
CHARTS - Official Fiscal Deficit & Debt ........................................................................................................................................................ 2161
CHARTS - Payroll Tax Holiday ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2162
CHARTS - Tax Rate Comparisons ............................................................................................................................................................. 2163
CHARTS - Risk Perceptions ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2164
CHARTS - 2013 Quarterly Impact ............................................................................................................................................................... 2165
CHARTS - Budget Deficit .............................................................................................................................................................................. 2166
CHARTS - Sovereign Debt ............................................................................................................................................................................ 2169
CHARTS - State & Local Government Drag ................................................................................................................................................. 2170
CHARTS - Government Dependence ........................................................................................................................................................... 2173
CHARTS - Coming Demographic Shock ....................................................................................................................................................... 2174
CHARTS - Fiscal Cliff Outcome .................................................................................................................................................................... 2178
BUDGET - What You Need to Know ................................................................................................................................................................... 2180
BUDGET - Political Budget Cowardice and Capitulation ........................................................................................................................ 2181
BUDGET - Political Budget Cowardice and Capitulation - 2 ................................................................................................................... 2183
BUDGET - The Ultimate in Political Can-Kicking! .................................................................................................................................... 2185
BUDGET - The Next Step in the Collapse Of The Dollar .......................................................................................................................... 2188
BUDGET - As Represented and Spun for the Public ............................................................................................................................... 2191
BUDGET - Implications ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2192
BUDGET - A Budget That Institutionalizes Big Government .................................................................................................................. 2194
BUDGET - The Secrets in The Budget ......................................................................................................................................................... 2198
RESEARCH OF NOTE ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 2201
RESEARCH - Budget Deficit Shrinking ......................................................................................................................................................... 2201
RESEARCH - Avoiding Taxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2203
RESEARCH - A Confluence Of Risky Economic Events ......................................................................................................................... 2204
RESEARCH - Everyone Hates Sequestration, But Few Can Agree On What to Cut ............................................................................ 2205
RESEARCH - $70T Off-Balance Sheet Federal Liabilities ....................................................................................................................... 2207
BUDGET SELLOUT ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2210
BUDGET AGREEMENT ................................................................................................................................................................................ 2213
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2214
SITUATIONAL SUMMARY & ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................................ 2215
CHARTS Retail Space Opened Pre-2008 versus Current Rate ............................................................................................................ 2390
CHARTS CMBS Recovered Somewhat but Malls In Trouble ................................................................................................................ 2390
CHARTS Department Store Sales Continue to Erode ........................................................................................................................... 2391
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2393
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Capture market share and get the most out of the consumers that are in our stores ............... 2393
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - McDonalds Has Worst Month In A Decade ................................................................................ 2394
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - August Retail Sales: Post-Winter Bounce Fading Fast.............................................................. 2394
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Weakness reported in restaurants, food service and processors and some retailers ............... 2399
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Why Aren't "Confident" Consumers Spending? ................................................................... 2400
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Have not Recovered to the 2007 Pre-Recession Level ................................... 2402
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Why Retail Sales Are Faltering - 60% of Households Have No Real Income Gains ................ 2405
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Wal-Mart Reduces Guidance - Again! ........................................................................................ 2408
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - 35,000 Franchise Operators in Trouble ..................................................................................... 2409
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Furniture Sales Collapse .................................................................................................. 2410
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Lower Prices & Discounting Taking a Toll .................................................................................. 2411
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Weaken on Price Discounting ................................................................................ 2412
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Wal-Mart Looks to Grow by Embracing Smaller Stores ...................................................... 2413
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - INEQUALITY leads to Economic Adjustments........................................................................... 2419
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - A Bad Start to the Q Earnings Season ....................................................................................... 2420
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Gallup Highlights Consumers are straining against rising prices" ............................................ 2421
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Markets Being "Duped" by Misinterpreting Misleading Data...................................................... 2424
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Rising Beef Costs ..................................................................................................................... 2425
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - - Rising "Prime" Retail Rents ...................................................................................................... 2429
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tablets Are Making Waiters Obsolete .................................................................................... 2431
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Weakness in RETAIL Broadens ................................................................................................. 2433
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Credit Spending Marginally Increasing - But Now on More Expensive Non-Discretionary ....... 2434
NEW-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Darden Results Disappoint as Olive Garden Sales Keep Declining & Sells Red Lobster ........ 2435
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities: Hot ... But Very Dangerous ...................................... 2437
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Dollar Tree Uptick in its earnings before following economic downturns ........................... 2444
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - E-Commerce Industry Is About To Explode .................................................................................... 2446
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retailers' Profits Miss By Most In 13 Years: "Consumer Is Not Back" ........................................ 2447
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Imploding Retail Floor Space Requirements .................................................................................. 2449
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Family Dollar to cut jobs, shut 370 stores as sales fall ................................................................. 2452
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The Death of a 71% Consumption Driven Economy ...................................................................... 2455
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Getting Worse Fast ............................................................................................................................ 2456
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion ........................................................................................................................... 2458
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Unfolding Implosion - II ..................................................................................................................... 2459
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Financial Crisis II Coming ................................................................................................................. 2464
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Indoor Mall Retail in Trouble ............................................................................................................. 2471
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Mortgage bonds reflect diverging fortunes of US malls ....................................................................... 2474
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Dead Mall Syndrome: The Self-Reinforcing Death Spiral of Retail ..................................................... 2476
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - The First Domino to fall: Retail-CRE (Commercial Real Estate) ......................................................... 2478
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - After Seven Lean Years: US Commercial Real Estate: The Present Position and Future Prospects 2482
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Retail Sales Cannibalization ................................................................................................................ 2488
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming ............................................................... 2489
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE - Thanksgiving Retail Sales Results ....................................................................................................... 2492
NEW-US SUB-PRIME ECONOMY ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2496
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2496
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2496
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2496
THE MUNI MONSTER- A Failure of Public Policy to Respond to Structural Change ........................................................................................ 2497
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2497
PEURTO RICO .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2497
US MUNI LAND ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2497
DETROIT - Simply the Canary................................................................................................................................................................... 2498
DETROIT - By the Numbers ................................................................................................................................................................. 2500
DETROIT - The News Reporting ......................................................................................................................................................... 2501
DETROIT - A Structural Problem that Failed to be politically addressed ...................................................................................... 2503
RETIREMENT CRISIS Now Beginning to Take Hold....................................................................................................................................... 2504
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED ....................................................................................................................................................................... 2504
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2506
RETIREMENT - Underfunded and Unsustainable ................................................................................................................................ 2506
RETIREMENT - 35 Facts to Scare a Baby Boomer .................................................................................................................................. 2509
RETIREMENT - $205K Account Limits ..................................................................................................................................................... 2511
RETIREMENT - $3M Retirement Cap Unanswered ................................................................................................................................. 2513
RETIREMENT - What Does Heart Surgery Really Cost, And Why Is It 70 Times More Expensive In The US? ..................................... 2514
RETIREMENT - UPS Drops 15,000 Spouses From Health Plan, Blames Obamacare ........................................................................... 2516
xENTITLEMENT CRISIS Unfunded Promises ................................................................................................................................................. 2518
CHARTS OF NOTE ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2518
xENTITLEMENTS The Swollen State: Transfer Payments as % of Personal Income .......................................................................... 2518
xENTITLEMENTS Generous Government? Gloomy Outlook Vs Comfort of Unemployed ................................................................... 2518
xENTITLEMENTS Employed Population Diverging from Financial Markets ......................................................................................... 2519
RESEARCH WE FOLLOWED....................................................................................................................................................................... 2520
FINANCIAL STRESS Increasing Despite Increases in Net Worth ................................................................................................................... 2520
RESEARCH OF NOTE .................................................................................................................................................................................. 2520