CALCULO DE LA PRECIPITACION PRO

Estacion
1
3
5
7
9
11

Precipitacion
(mm)
4500
2800
2500
1800
1300
1116

Estacion
2
4
6
8
10
12

Precipitacion
(mm)
3500
2700
2015
1500
1210
1005

METODO DEL PROMEDIO ARITMETICO

Pmed(mm)= 2162.16666667 SOLUCION

METODO DEL POLIGONO DE THIESSEN

Precipitacion
AREA DE INFLUENCIA (m2)
(mm)
1
4500
217.13
2
3500
232.85
3
2800
503.23
4
2700
352.57
5
2500
1394.64
6
2015
1089.30
7
1800
1188.62
8
1500
1639.03
9
1300
215.67
10
1210
SIN INFLUENCIA
11
1116
640.29
12
1005
202.02
TOTAL
7675.34
2036.47
PRESIPITACION PREOMEDIO(Pmed)(mm)=
Estacion

METODO DE LAS ISOYETAS

1005

AREAS ENTRE ISOYETAS

(Pn-1+Pn)/2

1500 1005 A
1800 1500 A
2100 1800 A
2400 2100 A
2700 2400 A
3000 2700 A
3300 3000 A
3600 3300 A
3900 3600 A
4500 3900 A
TOTAL

1500
1800
2100
2400
2700
3000
3300
3600
3900
4500

Pmed (mm)=

1317.14
1591.07
1446.05
1464.94
940.32
443.89
231.03
124.76
88.45
27.44
7675.08

1252.5
1650
1950
2250
2550
2850
3150
3450
3750
4200

2040.22 SOLUCION

CIPITACION PROMEDIO

Estacion
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Ai*Pi
977076.00
814989.00
1409044.00
951933.60
3486602.50
2194941.52
2139507.00
2458545.00
280369.70
0
714558.06
203032.11
15630598.49
2036.47
SOLUCION

Ai*(Pn-1+Pn)/2

Precipitacion
(mm)
4500
3500
2800
2700
2500
2015
1800
1500
1300
1210
1116
1005

1649712.84
2625257.25
2819803.35
3296103.75
2397816.00
1265075.10
727747.65
430428.90
331683.75
115243.80
15658872.39

RESUMEN
METODO DEL PROMEDIO ARITMETICO
METODO DEL POLIGONO DE THIESSEN
METODO DE LAS ISOYETAS

2162.17
2036.47
2040.22

ANALISIS DE FRECUENCIA DE TORMENTA

1. DIBUJAR LAS CURVA IDF

FECHAS
TELPATLAN.PUE
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

10

15

20

120.0
84.0
116.4
240.0
122.4
48.0
120.0
116.4
36.0
78.0
78.0
54.0
84.0
54.0
120.0

81.5
51.0
58.2
162.0
69.0
30.0
120.0
58.2
27.0
55.2
60.0
45.0
48.0
54.0
84.0

54.8
36.0
40.4
128.0
52.0
25.6
84.0
51.6
26.0
48.0
52.0
34.0
32.0
45.2
72.0

41.7
28.8
30.3
111.0
42.6
21.9
82.8
44.7
24.0
48.0
47.4
28.5
24.0
41.7
57.6

2. INTENSIDAD MAXIMA PARA UNA DURACION DE 45 MIN Y 10 AOS DE PERIODO DE RETORNO

TORMENTA
8 T 8 Aos =
16 T 16 Aos =

43
63
48 SOLUCION

T 10 Aos =

INTERPOLACION
65
f(x) = 2.5x + 23
R = 1

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
7

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

50
45
40
35
30
7

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

3. USANDO LA FORMULA DE TALBOT

MEDIANTE INTERPOLACION CALCULAMOS PARA UN PERIODO DE 10 AOS LAS INTENSIDADES PARA

PERIODO
16
10
8

5
240.0
151.8
122.4

10
162.0
130.5
120.0

15
128.0
95.0
84.0

10

5 MIN
200.0

300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0

f(x) = 14.7x + 4.8

240.0 122.4

150.0

Linear (240.0
122.4)

100.0

f(x) = 5.

50.0
0.0
6

6 8 10 12 14

8 10 12 14 16 18

60 MIN
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0

40.0
f(x) = 1.925x + 17.3

48.1 32.7

30.0

Linear (48.1 32.7)

20.0

f(x)

10.0
0.0
7 8 9 1011121314151617

DURACION
PERIODO (aos)
16

5
240.0

10
162.0

15
128.0

8 10

10
8
4
2

151.8
122.4
120.0
84.0

5
10
15
20
30
40
60
80
100
120

130.5
120.0
81.5
58.2

95.0
84.0
54.8
48.0

16

10

240.0
162.0
128.0
111.0
84.0
67.5
48.1
38.0
32.2
27.6

151.8
130.5
95.0
89.9
66.0
53.6
36.6
27.9
22.8
19.5

16 aos
0.04
0.035

f(x) = 0.000277795x + 0.0034932603

R = 0.9984465604

0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
0

20

40

60

a1=
b1=

0.0035
0.0003

a=

3333.3333

b=

11.6667

4 aos
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04

f(x) = 0.0004336512x + 0.0096931602

R = 0.9880657374

80

4 aos
0.07
0.06

f(x) = 0.0004336512x + 0.0096931602

R = 0.9880657374

0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

20

40

60

a1=
b1=

0.0097
0.0004

a=

2500.0000

b=

24.2500

4. HALLAR imax PARA UNA DURACION DE 45 MIN Y UN PERODO DE 10 AOS

10 AOS
DURACION(min) =

Imax

45
45.87

SOLUCION

5.FORMULA DE USA CALCULAMOS LA I max

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

(n+1)/m
16.00
8.00
5.33
4.00
3.20
2.67
2.29
2.00
1.78
1.60
1.45
1.33
1.23
1.14

5
240.0
122.4
120.0
120.0
120.0
116.4
116.4
84.0
84.0
78.0
78.0
54.0
54.0
48.0

10
162.0
120.0
84.0
81.5
69.0
60.0
58.2
58.2
55.2
54.0
51.0
48.0
45.0
30.0

80

1.07

15

240.0
120.0
54.8
44.7
31.8
25.1
14.0
11.8
10.9
4.7

36.0

27.0

Te

D
16.00
8.00
4.00
2.67
2.00
1.78
1.45
1.33
1.23
1.07

5
10
15
20
30
40
60
80
100
120

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.9886129
0.97735547
0.97088561
0.08806578
10

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de
libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

2
7
9

Promedio de
los
cuadrados

2.8849
0.1603
-0.9874

Probabilida
d
6.0161
0.0005
0.5585
0.5939
-4.0681
0.0048

Error tpico Estadstico t

0.4795
0.2870
0.2427

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin

2.34315907 1.1715795358 151.0627458

0.05428908 0.0077555822
2.39744815

Coeficientes
Intercepcin
Variable X 1
Variable X 2

Suma de
cuadrados

Pronstico para Y ResiduosResiduos estndares

1
2.3877171856 -0.00750594 -0.096642987
2
2.0422275325 0.03695371 0.4757985577
3
1.8201024215 -0.08132186 -1.04706189

4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1.6685119445
1.4746127684
1.343048911
1.1552069207
1.0257851929
0.9245241493
0.8363787834

-0.01820442
0.02781435
0.05662481
-0.00907888
0.04609681
0.11290235
-0.16428093

-0.234391529
0.3581244504
0.7290743093
-0.116895434
0.5935208055
1.4536773037
-2.115203587

MINUTOS
30

40

60

80

100

36.0
20.4
23.4
84.0
31.4
18.2
60.0
36.4
16.6
41.8
46.0
23.4
16.0
31.8
41.0

34.8
16.1
20.7
67.5
30.0
15.8
48.9
29.0
12.8
34.2
40.5
18.8
12.0
25.1
31.1

25.7
12.7
16.5
48.1
23.0
13.9
32.7
19.3
9.5
29.5
29.2
14.0
8.0
17.8
22.5

21.5
12.3
13.7
38.0
18.0
11.8
24.5
14.5
8.1
22.9
22.9
11.6
6.0
13.4
17.0

18.2
10.9
11.6
32.2
17.3
11.7
19.6
11.6
7.1
18.7
18.9
11.6
5.3
12.0
13.7

DO DE RETORNO

ACION

TORMENTA
Linear (TORMENTA)
ECUACION

15

16

17

Linear (TORMENTA)
ECUACION

15

16

17

INTENSIDADES PARA LAS DURACIONES DADOS

20
111.0
89.9
82.8

30
84.0
66.0
60.0

40
67.5
53.6
48.9

60
48.1
36.6
32.7

80
38.0
27.9
24.5

15MIN

10 MIN
150.0

200.0
150.0

f(x) = 5.25x + 78

100.0

162.0 120.0

f(x) = 5.5x + 40

100.0

Linear (162.0
120.0)

128.0 84.0
Linear (128.0

50.0

50.0

0.0

0.0

6 8 10 12 14 16 18

8 10 12 14 16 18

100 MIN

80 MIN
40.0

40.0
f(x) = 1.6875x + 11

30.0
20.0

38.0 24.5

30.0

Linear (38.0
24.5)

20.0

10.0

10.0

0.0

0.0
6

8 10 12 14 16 18

20
111.0

30
84.0

f(x) = 1.575x + 7

40
67.5

60
48.1

80
38.0

8 10 12 14 16 18

32.2 19.

Linear (3

89.9
82.8
48.0
41.7

66.0
60.0
41.8
31.8

53.6
48.9
34.8
29.0

122.4
120.0
84.0
82.8
60.0
48.9
32.7
24.5
19.6
16.8

120.0
81.5
54.8
48.0
41.8
34.8
29.2
22.9
18.7
16.3

84.0
58.2
48.0
41.7
31.8
29.0
19.3
14.5
12.0
10.6

36.6
32.7
29.2
19.3

27.9
24.5
22.9
14.5

5
10
15
20
30
40
60
80
100
120

16 aos

10
0.06

.0034932603

0.05

f(x) = 0.0003969026x + 0.00376911

R = 0.9985537107

0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
60

80

100

120

140

0
0

20

40

60

SOLUCION

aos

31602

2
0.1
0.08
0.06

f(x) = 0.0007247608x + 0.0090397

R = 0.9966446001

aos

2
0.1

31602

f(x) = 0.0007247608x + 0.0090397

R = 0.9966446001

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
80

100

120

140

SOLUCION

MINUTOS (ORDENADO DE MAYOR A MENOR)

15
128.0
84.0
72.0
54.8
52.0
52.0
51.6
48.0
45.2
40.4
36.0
34.0
32.0
26.0

20
111.0
82.8
57.6
48.0
47.4
44.7
42.6
41.7
41.7
30.3
28.8
28.5
24.0
24.0

30
84.0
60.0
46.0
41.8
41.0
36.4
36.0
31.8
31.4
23.4
23.4
20.4
18.2
16.6

40
67.5
48.9
40.5
34.8
34.2
31.1
30.0
29.0
25.1
20.7
18.8
16.1
15.8
12.8

60
48.1
32.7
29.5
29.2
25.7
23.0
22.5
19.3
17.8
16.5
14.0
13.9
12.7
9.5

20

40

25.6

21.9

16.0

12.0

Y
LOG (i)
2.380211
2.079181
1.738781
1.650308
1.502427
1.399674
1.146128
1.071882
1.037426
0.672098

X1
LOG(Te)
1.204120
0.903090
0.602060
0.425969
0.301030
0.249877
0.162727
0.124939
0.090177
0.028029

X2
LOG(D)
0.698970
1.000000
1.176091
1.301030
1.477121
1.602060
1.778151
1.903090
2.000000
2.079181

a1=
b1=

2.8849
0.1603

a=
b=

c1=

-0.9874

k=

Valor
crtico de F
1.7473E-006

Inferior
95%
1.7510
-0.5184
-1.5613

Superior
95%
4.0188
0.8390
-0.4135

Inferior
95.0%
1.7510
-0.5184
-1.5613

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil

Y
5 0.67209786
15 1.0374265
25 1.07188201

Superior
95.0%
4.0188
0.8390
-0.4135

8.0

35
45
55
65
75
85
95

1.14612804
1.39967372
1.50242712
1.65030752
1.73878056
2.07918125
2.38021124

120
16.8
9.5
10.1
27.6
15.5
10.3
16.4
10.1
6.3
15.9
16.3
10.6
4.7
10.0
12.0

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

(n+1)/m
16.00
8.00
5.33
4.00
3.20
2.67
2.29
2.00
1.78
1.60
1.45
1.33
1.23
1.14
1.07

5
240.0
122.4
120.0
120.0
120.0
116.4
116.4
84.0
84.0
78.0
78.0
54.0
54.0
48.0
36.0

10
162.0
120.0
84.0
81.5
69.0
60.0
58.2
58.2
55.2
54.0
51.0
48.0
45.0
30.0
27.0

300.0

250.0

200.0

INTENSIDAD

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
0

20

0.0
0

100
32.2
22.8
19.6

120
27.6
19.5
16.8

20 MIN

15MIN

.0
f(x) = 5.5x + 40

.0

128.0 84.0
Linear (128.0 84.0)

.0

.0
6

120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0

40.0

20.0

32.2 19.6
Linear (32.2 19.6)

10.0
0.0
6

30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

f(x) = 1.35x + 6

6 8 10 12 14 16 18

8 10 12 14 16 18

100
32.2

Linear (111.0
82.8)

120 MIN

100 MIN
f(x) = 1.575x + 7

f(x) = 3.525x + 54.6 111.0 82.8

6 8 10 12 14 16 18

8 10 12 14 16 18

30.0

20

120
27.6

27.6 16.8
Linear (27.6
16.8)

22.8
19.6
18.7
12.0

19.5
16.8
16.3
10.6

16
0.0041666667
0.0061728395
0.0078125
0.009009009
0.0119047619
0.0148148148
0.0207900208
0.0263157895
0.0310559006
0.0362318841

10
0.00658762
0.00766284
0.01052632
0.01112966
0.01515152
0.01867414
0.02735978
0.03587444
0.04395604
0.05128205

8
0.00817
0.008333
0.011905
0.012077
0.016667
0.02045
0.030581
0.040816
0.05102
0.059524

4
0.00833333
0.01226994
0.01824818
0.02083333
0.02392344
0.02873563
0.03424658
0.04366812
0.05347594
0.06134969

2
0.01190476
0.01718213
0.02083333
0.02398082
0.03144654
0.03448276
0.05181347
0.06896552
0.08333333
0.09433962

10 aos
0.06
0.05

f(x) = 0.0003969026x + 0.0037691148

R = 0.9985537107

0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

20

40

60

a1=
b1=

0.0038
0.0004

a=

2500.0000

b=

9.5000

80

SOLUCION

2 aos
0.1
0.08
0.06

f(x) = 0.0007247608x + 0.0090397078

R = 0.9966446001

100

120

140

2 aos
0.1
f(x) = 0.0007247608x + 0.0090397078
R = 0.9966446001

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0

20

40

60

a1=
b1=

0.0090
0.0007

a=

1428.5714

b=

12.8571

80
38.0
24.5
22.9
22.9
21.5
18.0
17.0
14.5
13.7
13.4
12.3
11.8
11.6
8.1

100
32.2
19.6
18.9
18.7
18.2
17.3
13.7
12.0
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.6
10.9
7.1

80

SOLUCION

NOR)
120
27.6
16.8
16.4
16.3
15.9
15.5
12.0
10.6
10.3
10.1
10.1
10.0
9.5
6.3

100

120

140

6.0

5.3

0.1603
0.9874
767.1321

solucion

4.7

SOLUCION
MINUTOS (ORDENADO DE MAYOR A MENOR)
15
128.0
84.0
72.0
54.8
52.0
52.0
51.6
48.0
45.2
40.4
36.0
34.0
32.0
26.0
25.6

20
111.0
82.8
57.6
48.0
47.4
44.7
42.6
41.7
41.7
30.3
28.8
28.5
24.0
24.0
21.9

30
84.0
60.0
46.0
41.8
41.0
36.4
36.0
31.8
31.4
23.4
23.4
20.4
18.2
16.6
16.0

40
67.5
48.9
40.5
34.8
34.2
31.1
30.0
29.0
25.1
20.7
18.8
16.1
15.8
12.8
12.0

60
48.1
32.7
29.5
29.2
25.7
23.0
22.5
19.3
17.8
16.5
14.0
13.9
12.7
9.5
8.0

80
38.0
24.5
22.9
22.9
21.5
18.0
17.0
14.5
13.7
13.4
12.3
11.8
11.6
8.1
6.0

IDF
300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0

0.0
0

20

40

60
DURACION

80

100

120

140

0.0
0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

DURACION

SOLUCION

30 MIN

40 M

100.0

54.6 111.0 82.8

Linear (111.0
82.8)

80.0
60.0

f(x) = 3x + 36

40.0
20.0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18

27.6 16.8
Linear (27.6
16.8)

Linear (84.0
60.0)

80.0
60.0

f(x) = 2.325x +

40.0
20.0

0.0

IN

84.0 60.0

0.0

6 8 10 12 14 16 1

8 aos
0.07
0.06

f(x) = 0.0004619628x + 0.0037801346

R = 0.9958810704

0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

20

40

60

80

a1=
b1=

0.0038
0.0005

a=

2000.0000

b=

7.6000

100

SOLUCION

120

140

100
32.2
19.6
18.9
18.7
18.2
17.3
13.7
12.0
11.7
11.6
11.6
11.6
10.9
7.1
5.3

120
27.6
16.8
16.4
16.3
15.9
15.5
12.0
10.6
10.3
10.1
10.1
10.0
9.5
6.3
4.7

T 16 Aos
T 8 Aos
T 4 Aos
T 2 Aos
T 1 Aos

120

140

120

140

40 MIN
80.0
60.0

f(x) = 2.325x + 30.3

40.0
20.0
0.0
6 8 10 12 14 16 18

67.5 48.9
Linear (67.5
48.9)

120

140

DURACION

16

10

AOS
8

5
10
15
20
30
40
60
80
100
120

240.0
162.0
128.0
111.0
84.0
67.5
48.1
38.0
32.2
27.6

151.8
130.5
95.0
89.9
66.0
53.6
36.6
27.9
22.8
19.5

122.4
120.0
84.0
82.8
60.0
48.9
32.7
24.5
19.6
16.8

AOS

N
4

120.0
81.5
54.8
41.7
36.0
34.8
25.7
21.5
18.2
16.3

84.0
58.2
48.0
48.0
41.8
34.2
29.5
22.9
18.7
10.6

i
1
2

3
4

5
6

7
8

9
10

240.0
162.0
128.0
111.0
84.0
67.5
48.1
38.0
32.2
27.6

Te
11.00
5.50
3.67
2.75
2.20
1.83
1.57
1.38
1.22
1.10

D
5
10
15
20
30
40
60
80
100
120

X1

X2

X1^2

X2^2

X1^X2

X1*Y

X2*Y

CALCULO DE LAS PRESIPITACIONES MAXIMAS

Aos
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

1dia
77.00
60.40
65.90
39.10
70.40
65.50
66.90
59.10
82.60
89.00
75.60
76.40

Precipitacion (mm)
2dias
3dias
4dias
83.80
104.30
114.30
65.70
80.50
93.50
65.90
77.20
86.30
62.00
81.80
107.80
75.70
75.70
77.50
75.20
76.90
115.20
68.50
96.10
99.20
59.80
63.20
78.90
97.90
110.30
112.30
90.75
90.75
94.32
102.20
102.20
117.70
100.20
108.70
114.00

Introducir los datos de la serie en las casillas amarillas. En azul los resultados de
los clculos.
-CFL, 2005-

Ao

1 dia

1989

89.00
82.60
77.00
76.40
75.60
70.40
66.90
65.90
65.50
60.40
59.10
39.10

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

media
91.36

1.0628
alfa
0.0821416276

Gumbel
T
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Dis tribucin Gum bel

180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
P (mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

finalmente obtenemos
T

1dia

2dias

3dias

4dias

89.45
103.25
112.38
123.93
132.49
140.99
149.46
160.63

76.80
94.69
106.53
121.49
132.59
143.60
154.58
169.06

86.84
104.41
116.04
130.74
141.65
152.47
163.25
177.48

98.87
115.76
126.94
141.07
151.55
161.95
172.32
185.99

5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Distribucin Gumbel
250.00

200.00

P (mm)

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
1

10

100
Aos

S MAXIMAS

5dias
133.90
97.50
124.60
120.50
109.70
118.20
104.20
90.40
123.70
101.92
139.60
130.10

(n+1)/m

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

13.00
6.50
4.33
3.25
2.60
2.17
1.86
1.63
1.44
1.30
1.18
1.08

DIAS

1dia
89.00
82.60
77.00
76.40
75.60
70.40
66.90
65.90
65.50
60.40
59.10
39.10

2dias
102.20
100.20
97.90
90.75
83.80
75.70
75.20
68.50
65.90
65.70
62.00
59.80

PRESIPITACION
160.00
140.00
120.00
100.00
PRECIPITACION

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00
PERIODO

8.00

20.00
0.00
0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00
PERIODO

s. En azul los resultados de

Valores para el clculo de alfa y beta

desviacion tip

12.9386284459

20

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

0.5236
beta
84.9869348866

Gumbel
PrecipitacionProb(Pmax<=x)
0.5
89.45
0.8
103.25
0.9
112.38
0.96
123.93
0.98
132.49
0.99
140.99
0.995
149.46
0.998
160.63

Dis tribucin Gum bel

180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
(mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

0.4967

0.9573

0.4996

0.9676

0.5039

0.9833

0.507

0.9971

0.51

1.0095

0.5128

1.0206

0.5154

1.0306

0.5176

1.0396

0.5198

0.1048

0.5202

1.0544

0.5236

1.0628

0.5252

1.0696

0.5268

1.0754

0.5283

1.0811

0.5296

1.0864

0.5309

1.0915

0.532

1.0961

0.5332

1.1004

0.5343

1.1047

0.5353

1.1086

0.5362

1.1124

0.5371

1.1159

0.538

1.1193

0.5388

1.1226

0.5396

1.1255

0.5403

1.1285

0.541

1.1313

0.5418

1.1339

0.5424

1.1363

8.00

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

0.543

1.1388

0.5436

1.1413

0.5442

1.1436

0.5448

1.1458

0.5453

1.1480

0.5458

1.1499

0.5463

1.1519

0.5468

1.1538

0.5473

1.1557

0.5477

1.1574

0.5481

0.1159

0.5485

1.1607

0.5489

1.1623

0.5493

1.1638

0.5497

1.1658

0.5501

1.1667

0.5504

1.1681

0.5508

0.1696

0.5511

1.1708

0.5515

1.1721

0.5518

1.1734

0.5521

1.1747

0.5535

1.1803

0.5548

1.1854

0.5559

1.1898

0.5569

1.1938

0.5578

1.1973

0.5586

1.2007

0.5593

1.2038

0.56

1.2065

5dias

Chart Title

114.04
131.79
143.55
158.40
169.41
180.35
191.24
205.62

250.00

200.00

150.00
PRECIPITACION (mm)
100.00

150.00
PRECIPITACION (mm)
100.00

50.00

0.00
0

200

300

PERIODO T (a

ibucin Gumbel

100

1 DIA
2 DIAS
3 DIAS
4 DIAS
5 DIAS

100
Aos

1000

DIAS

3dias
110.30
108.70
104.30
102.20
96.10
90.75
81.80
80.50
77.20
76.90
75.70
63.20

4dias
117.70
115.20
114.30
114.00
112.30
107.80
99.20
94.32
93.50
86.30
78.90
77.50

5dias
139.60
133.90
130.10
124.60
123.70
120.50
118.20
109.70
104.20
101.92
97.50
90.40

PRESIPITACION

Column K
Column L
Column M
Column N
Column O

4.00

6.00
PERIODO

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

PERIODO

Ao

2 dias

1989

102.20
100.20
97.90
90.75
83.80
75.70
75.20
68.50
65.90
65.70
62.00
59.80

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

media
78.97

0.9833
alfa
0.0633793537

Gumbel
T
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Dis tribucin Gum bel

180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
P (mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

Chart Title

1 dia
2 dias
3 dias
4 dias
5 dias

1 dia
2 dias
3 dias
4 dias
5 dias

100

200

300

400

500

600

PERIODO T (aos)

Distribucin Gumbel
230.00
210.00

f(x) = 0.1448504847x + 145.6491249449

190.00

f(x) = 0.1378018064x + 128.9407545305

f(x) = 0.1433711502x + 118.1257977242
f(x) = 0.1459248713x + 108.645104767

170.00
P (mm)

f(x) = 0.11259363x + 114.0177224758

150.00
130.00
110.00
90.00
70.00
50.00
1

10

100
Aos

50.00
1

10

100
Aos

Valores para el clculo de alfa y beta

desviacion tip

15.5145160522

12

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

0.5039
beta
71.0202946995

Gumbel
PrecipitacionProb(Pmax<=x)
0.5
76.80
0.8
94.69
0.9
106.53
0.96
121.49
0.98
132.59
0.99
143.60
0.995
154.58
0.998
169.06

Dis tribucin Gum bel

180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
(mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

0.4967

0.9573

0.4996

0.9676

0.5039

0.9833

0.507

0.9971

0.51

1.0095

0.5128

1.0206

0.5154

1.0306

0.5176

1.0396

0.5198

0.1048

0.5202

1.0544

0.5236

1.0628

0.5252

1.0696

0.5268

1.0754

0.5283

1.0811

0.5296

1.0864

0.5309

1.0915

0.532

1.0961

0.5332

1.1004

0.5343

1.1047

0.5353

1.1086

0.5362

1.1124

0.5371

1.1159

0.538

1.1193

0.5388

1.1226

0.5396

1.1255

0.5403

1.1285

0.541

1.1313

0.5418

1.1339

0.5424

1.1363

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

0.543

1.1388

0.5436

1.1413

0.5442

1.1436

0.5448

1.1458

0.5453

1.1480

0.5458

1.1499

0.5463

1.1519

0.5468

1.1538

0.5473

1.1557

0.5477

1.1574

0.5481

0.1159

0.5485

1.1607

0.5489

1.1623

0.5493

1.1638

0.5497

1.1658

0.5501

1.1667

0.5504

1.1681

0.5508

0.1696

0.5511

1.1708

0.5515

1.1721

0.5518

1.1734

0.5521

1.1747

0.5535

1.1803

0.5548

1.1854

0.5559

1.1898

0.5569

1.1938

0.5578

1.1973

0.5586

1.2007

0.5593

1.2038

0.56

1.2065

ibucin Gumbel

+ 145.6491249449
+ 128.9407545305
+ 118.1257977242
+ 108.645104767
114.0177224758

100
Aos

1000

100
Aos

1000

Ao

3 dias

1989

110.30
108.70
104.30
102.20
96.10
90.75
81.80
80.50
77.20
76.90
75.70
63.20

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

media
88.97

0.9833
alfa
0.0645082642

Gumbel
T
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Dis tribucin Gum bel

200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
P (mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

Valores para el clculo de alfa y beta

desviacion tip

15.2430082084

12

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

0.5039
beta
81.1594310795

Gumbel
PrecipitacionProb(Pmax<=x)
0.5
86.84
0.8
104.41
0.9
116.04
0.96
130.74
0.98
141.65
0.99
152.47
0.995
163.25
0.998
177.48

Dis tribucin Gum bel

200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
(mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

0.4967

0.9573

0.4996

0.9676

0.5039

0.9833

0.507

0.9971

0.51

1.0095

0.5128

1.0206

0.5154

1.0306

0.5176

1.0396

0.5198

0.1048

0.5202

1.0544

0.5236

1.0628

0.5252

1.0696

0.5268

1.0754

0.5283

1.0811

0.5296

1.0864

0.5309

1.0915

0.532

1.0961

0.5332

1.1004

0.5343

1.1047

0.5353

1.1086

0.5362

1.1124

0.5371

1.1159

0.538

1.1193

0.5388

1.1226

0.5396

1.1255

0.5403

1.1285

0.541

1.1313

0.5418

1.1339

0.5424

1.1363

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

0.543

1.1388

0.5436

1.1413

0.5442

1.1436

0.5448

1.1458

0.5453

1.1480

0.5458

1.1499

0.5463

1.1519

0.5468

1.1538

0.5473

1.1557

0.5477

1.1574

0.5481

0.1159

0.5485

1.1607

0.5489

1.1623

0.5493

1.1638

0.5497

1.1658

0.5501

1.1667

0.5504

1.1681

0.5508

0.1696

0.5511

1.1708

0.5515

1.1721

0.5518

1.1734

0.5521

1.1747

0.5535

1.1803

0.5548

1.1854

0.5559

1.1898

0.5569

1.1938

0.5578

1.1973

0.5586

1.2007

0.5593

1.2038

0.56

1.2065

Ao

4 dias

1989

117.70
115.20
114.30
114.00
112.30
107.80
99.20
94.32
93.50
86.30
78.90
77.50

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

media
100.92

0.9833
alfa
0.0671154049

Gumbel
T
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Distribucin Gum bel

200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
P (mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

Valores para el clculo de alfa y beta

desviacion tip

14.650883829

12

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

0.5039
beta
93.410369984

Gumbel
PrecipitacionProb(Pmax<=x)
0.5
98.87
0.8
115.76
0.9
126.94
0.96
141.07
0.98
151.55
0.99
161.95
0.995
172.32
0.998
185.99

Distribucin Gum bel

200.00
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
(mm)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

0.4967

0.9573

0.4996

0.9676

0.5039

0.9833

0.507

0.9971

0.51

1.0095

0.5128

1.0206

0.5154

1.0306

0.5176

1.0396

0.5198

0.1048

0.5202

1.0544

0.5236

1.0628

0.5252

1.0696

0.5268

1.0754

0.5283

1.0811

0.5296

1.0864

0.5309

1.0915

0.532

1.0961

0.5332

1.1004

0.5343

1.1047

0.5353

1.1086

0.5362

1.1124

0.5371

1.1159

0.538

1.1193

0.5388

1.1226

0.5396

1.1255

0.5403

1.1285

0.541

1.1313

0.5418

1.1339

0.5424

1.1363

100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

0.543

1.1388

0.5436

1.1413

0.5442

1.1436

0.5448

1.1458

0.5453

1.1480

0.5458

1.1499

0.5463

1.1519

0.5468

1.1538

0.5473

1.1557

0.5477

1.1574

0.5481

0.1159

0.5485

1.1607

0.5489

1.1623

0.5493

1.1638

0.5497

1.1658

0.5501

1.1667

0.5504

1.1681

0.5508

0.1696

0.5511

1.1708

0.5515

1.1721

0.5518

1.1734

0.5521

1.1747

0.5535

1.1803

0.5548

1.1854

0.5559

1.1898

0.5569

1.1938

0.5578

1.1973

0.5586

1.2007

0.5593

1.2038

0.56

1.2065

Ao

5 dias

1989

139.60
133.90
130.10
124.60
123.70
120.50
118.20
109.70
104.20
101.92
97.50
90.40

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

media
116.19

0.9833
alfa
0.0638494517

Gumbel
T
2
5
10
25
50
100
200
500

Distribucin Gum bel

250.00

200.00

150.00
P (mm)
100.00

50.00

0.00
1

10

100
Aos

100.00

50.00

0.00
1

10

100
Aos

Valores para el clculo de alfa y beta

desviacion tip

15.4002888599

12

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

0.5039
beta
108.301331344

Gumbel
PrecipitacionProb(Pmax<=x)
0.5
114.04
0.8
131.79
0.9
143.55
0.96
158.40
0.98
169.41
0.99
180.35
0.995
191.24
0.998
205.62

Distribucin Gum bel

250.00

200.00

150.00
(mm)
100.00

50.00

0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

0.4967

0.9573

0.4996

0.9676

0.5039

0.9833

0.507

0.9971

0.51

1.0095

0.5128

1.0206

0.5154

1.0306

0.5176

1.0396

0.5198

0.1048

0.5202

1.0544

0.5236

1.0628

0.5252

1.0696

0.5268

1.0754

0.5283

1.0811

0.5296

1.0864

0.5309

1.0915

0.532

1.0961

0.5332

1.1004

0.5343

1.1047

0.5353

1.1086

0.5362

1.1124

0.5371

1.1159

0.538

1.1193

0.5388

1.1226

0.5396

1.1255

0.5403

1.1285

0.541

1.1313

0.5418

1.1339

0.5424

1.1363

100.00

50.00

0.00
1

10

100
Aos

1000

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100

0.543

1.1388

0.5436

1.1413

0.5442

1.1436

0.5448

1.1458

0.5453

1.1480

0.5458

1.1499

0.5463

1.1519

0.5468

1.1538

0.5473

1.1557

0.5477

1.1574

0.5481

0.1159

0.5485

1.1607

0.5489

1.1623

0.5493

1.1638

0.5497

1.1658

0.5501

1.1667

0.5504

1.1681

0.5508

0.1696

0.5511

1.1708

0.5515

1.1721

0.5518

1.1734

0.5521

1.1747

0.5535

1.1803

0.5548

1.1854

0.5559

1.1898

0.5569

1.1938

0.5578

1.1973

0.5586

1.2007

0.5593

1.2038

0.56

1.2065

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.9886129
Coeficiente d 0.97735547
R^2 ajustado 0.97088561
Error tpico
0.08806578
Observacione
10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
2 2.34315907 1.17157954 151.062746 1.74732E-006
Residuos
7 0.05428908 0.00775558
Total
9 2.39744815
Coeficientes Error tpico
Intercepcin 2.88487014 0.47952682
Variable X 1 0.16029152 0.2870175
Variable X 2 -0.98740027 0.24271901

Estadstico t
6.01607671
0.55847297
-4.06807961

Probabilidad
0.00053364
0.59392676
0.00476075

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
Pronstico para Y Residuos
Residuos estndares
1 2.38771719 -0.00750594 -0.09664299
2 2.04222753 0.03695371 0.47579856
3 1.82010242 -0.08132186 -1.04706189
4 1.66851194 -0.01820442 -0.23439153
5 1.47461277 0.02781435 0.35812445
6 1.34304891 0.05662481 0.72907431
7 1.15520692 -0.00907888 -0.11689543
8 1.02578519 0.04609681 0.59352081
9 0.92452415 0.11290235 1.4536773
10 0.83637878 -0.16428093 -2.11520359

Inferior 95%
1.7509693883
-0.518397028
-1.561339533

Resultados de datos de probabilida

Percentil
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95

rtico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
4.01877089 1.75096939 4.01877089
0.83898006 -0.51839703 0.83898006
-0.413461 -1.56133953
-0.413461

tados de datos de probabilidad

Y
0.67209786
1.0374265
1.07188201
1.14612804
1.39967372
1.50242712
1.65030752
1.73878056
2.07918125
2.38021124