2013 Carbon Dioxide Emissions andFuel Economy Trends ReportSection 9 Tables

Fuel economy
Cars

Moving Average Trucks Moving average Both Cars and Trucks

Model Year

EPA Adj.
(MPG)

EPA Adj.
(MPG)

EPA Adj. (MPG)

1975

13.5

11.6

13.1

1976

14.9

1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

15.6
16.9
17.2
20.0
21.4
22.2
22.1
22.4
23.0
23.7
23.8
24.1
23.7
23.3
23.4
23.1
23.5
23.3
23.4
23.3
23.4
23.4
23.0
22.9
23.0
23.1
23.2
23.1
23.5
23.3
24.1
24.3
25.4
25.8
25.6
27.0
27.4

12.2
14.7
15.8
16.6
18.0
19.5
21.2
21.9
22.2
22.5
23.0
23.5
23.9
23.9
23.7
23.5
23.3
23.3
23.3
23.4
23.3
23.4
23.4
23.3
23.1
23.0
23.0
23.1
23.1
23.3
23.3
23.6
23.9
24.6
25.2
25.6
26.1
26.7

Moving average

14.2

13.3
12.9
12.5
15.8
17.1
17.4
17.8
17.4
17.5
18.2
18.3
17.9
17.6
17.4
17.8
17.4
17.5
17.2
17.0
17.2
17.0
17.1
16.7
16.9
16.7
16.7
16.9
16.7
17.2
17.5
17.7
18.2
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.3
19.7

12.4
12.8
12.9
13.7
15.1
16.8
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
18.0
18.1
17.9
17.6
17.6
17.5
17.6
17.4
17.2
17.1
17.1
17.1
16.9
16.9
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.9
17.1
17.5
17.8
18.3
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.4

15.1
15.8
15.9
19.2
20.5
21.1
21.0
21.0
21.3
21.8
22.0
21.9
21.4
21.2
21.3
20.8
20.9
20.4
20.5
20.4
20.1
20.1
19.7
19.8
19.6
19.5
19.6
19.3
19.9
20.1
20.6
21.0
22.4
22.6
22.4
23.6
24.0

14.1
15.0
15.6
17.0
18.5
20.3
20.9
21.0
21.1
21.4
21.7
21.9
21.8
21.5
21.3
21.1
21.0
20.7
20.6
20.4
20.3
20.2
20.0
19.9
19.7
19.6
19.6
19.5
19.6
19.8
20.2
20.6
21.3
22.0
22.5
22.9
23.3

Questions
1. Highlight the vehicle fuel economy trends in the US from 1975-2011

Functions used
AVERAGE function returns the average of a given set of data

2. Highlight the trends in CO2 emission in the US due to vehicle emissions from 1975-2011
3. Correlation between fuel economy and CO2 emission
-0.9895834756
Strong correlation between Fuel economy and CO2 emission with coefficient of correlation 0.989
Linear trend line is used, and the slope of the line is negative. This is a negative correlation.
4. Using historical gas prices in the state of PA, ascertain the maximum and minimum gas prices
between 1983-2010.
The lowest average price is 0.63 in 1998 and the highest average price is 2.75 in 2008
5. Use curve fitting to appropriate subsets of the data to ascertain gas prices for 1975 to 1982 and 2011
6. Using the average gas price per year, is there a correlation in PA gas prices and U.S. CO2
emissions between 1975-2011? Explain your findings.
7. Given your findings about vehicle fuel economy and CO2 emissions in US, propose one
improvement to reduce CO2 emissions due to the transportation sector? In your answer, discuss
the rationale and pros and cons of your suggested solution. Please cite your sources of
information.

CORREL function gives the correlation number of two different sets of data
SLOPE funct
INTERCEPTreturn
f
the point at which a line will intersect

Cars

Moving AveraTrucks

Moving AveraCars and Trucks

Fuel economy of the US from 1975-2011

25.0

MA of cars
15.0

Fuel economy of both

MA of both

0.0

Year

Moving Average

764

681

598

726

625

1977

570 609.66666667

669 719.66666667

590

1978

525 564.33333333

687

694

562 592.333333333

1979

517 537.33333333

711

689

560 570.666666667

1980

446

496

565 654.33333333

466 529.333333333

1981

418 460.33333333

523 599.66666667

436 487.333333333

1982

402

422

516 534.66666667

425 442.333333333

1983

403 407.66666667

504 514.33333333

426

429

1984

397 400.66666667

512 510.66666667

424

425

Carbon dioxide emission of the US from 1975-2011

900
800
700

632

Carbon dioxide emission

by cars

600

MA of cars

500

Carbon dioxide emission

by trucks

ADJ Comp 400

( MPG)
300
200

MA of trucks

100

Carbon emission of both

1985

387 395.66666667

509 508.33333333

417 422.333333333

1986

375 386.33333333

489 503.33333333

407

1987

374 378.66666667

486 494.66666667

405 409.666666667

1988

369 372.66666667

498

407 406.333333333

1989

376

373

506 496.66666667

415

409

1990

382 375.66666667

512 505.33333333

420

414

1991

382

380

500

506

418 417.666666667

1992

389 384.33333333

512

508

427 421.666666667

1993

386 385.66666667

507 506.33333333

426 423.666666667

700

1994

386

387

518 512.33333333

436 429.666666667

600

1995

382 384.66666667

524 516.33333333

434

432

1996

384

518

435

435

1997

384 383.33333333

528 523.33333333

MA of trucks

5.0

661

520

Fuel economy of trucks

10.0

1976

384

Fuel economy of cars

20.0

ADJ Comp ( MPG)

1975

491

0.63
2.75

30.0

Carbon emission
Model Year

1998
2008

441 436.666666667

PA Average gas prices (1983-2010)

MA of both

416

Year

Correlation between fuel economy and carbon dioxide emission of the US

800

500

f(x) = 0.1878333333x - 374.967

R = 0.7135235495

2.5
2

1983-2010
1983-2001

1.5
Gas prices ($/gal)

Linear (1983-2001)
2002-2010

f(x) = - 28.4221069686x + 1020.1433483613

R = 0.9792754551

400
Fuel economy
of the US(MPG)

0.5

Linear (2002-2010)
f(x) = 0.0009824561x - 1.146
R = 0.0021244022

300

0
1980

200
100
0
12.0

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year
14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

Carbon diocide emission of the US (MPG)

EPA-420-R-13-011

December 2013

Correlation between fuel economy and carbon dioxide emission of the US

800

600
500

386 384.66666667

521 522.33333333

442 439.333333333

1999

392 387.33333333

535

528

451 444.666666667

200

2000

395

528

528

450 447.666666667

100

2001

393 393.33333333

538 533.66666667

453 451.333333333

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

390 392.66666667
386 389.66666667
389 388.33333333
384 386.33333333
386 386.33333333
375 381.66666667
372 377.66666667
356 367.66666667
346
358
348
350
326
340

539
535
533 536.66666667
538 536.66666667
526 532.33333333
518 527.33333333
512 518.66666667
499 509.66666667
480
497
474 484.33333333
466 473.33333333
458
466

457
454
461
447
442
431
424
397
394
398
374

453.333333333
454.666666667
457.333333333
454
450
440
432.333333333
417.333333333
405
396.333333333
388.666666667

0.951
0.921
0.929
0.66
0.666
0.678
0.856
0.797
0.868
0.792
0.752
0.684
0.834
0.891
0.804
0.65
0.681
1.027
1.201
0.91
1
1.508
1.617
2.398
2.496
3.292
1.817
2.35

Jun
0.953
0.921
0.941
0.661
0.69
0.686
0.854
0.816
0.873
0.832
0.76
0.714
0.85
0.875
0.799
0.655
0.667
1.138
1.138
0.894
1.01
1.473
1.67
2.328
2.475
3.519
2.133
2.194

Mar
0.94
0.905
0.87
0.683
0.635
0.641
0.702
0.771
0.823
0.731
0.723
0.657
0.737
0.762
0.83
0.608
0.544
1.073
0.964
0.803
1.188
1.258
1.564
1.9
2.108
2.747
1.492
2.31

Apr
0.964
0.916
0.907
0.586
0.647
0.66
0.795
0.781
0.842
0.742
0.736
0.665
0.761
0.845
0.802
0.622
0.663
1.001
1.09
0.927
1.086
1.296
1.703
2.298
2.299
2.936
1.581
2.368

Coefficient of best fit line

1983-2001
slope
0.0009825 intercept

-1.146

2002-2010
slope
0.1878333 intercept

-374.967

Year
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
2010

EPA-420-R-13-011

Estimated gas price

($/gal)
0.7943509
0.7953333
0.7963158
0.7972982
0.7982807
0.7992632
0.8002456
0.8012281
0.8287368

May

Linear (1983-2001)

1
0.5

Linear (2002-2010)
f(x) = 0.0009824561x - 1.146
R = 0.0021244022

300

1998

Gas Prices (Dollars/Gallon)

Year
Jan
Feb
1983
0.97
0.937
1984
0.926
0.909
1985
0.851
0.851
1986
0.915
0.841
1987
0.592
0.627
1988
0.677
0.656
1989
0.695
0.691
1990
0.794
0.783
1991
0.948
0.854
1992
0.79
0.746
1993
0.769
0.743
1994
0.658
0.664
1995
0.763
0.748
1996
0.748
0.741
1997
0.897
0.877
1998
0.698
0.638
1999
0.522
0.504
2000
0.885
0.935
2001
1.013
1.018
2002
0.69
0.684
2003
1.037
1.158
2004
1.14
1.198
2005
1.377
1.439
2006
1.912
1.821
2007
1.807
1.783
2008
2.618
2.571
2009
1.303
1.471
2010
2.26
2.198

1983-2001
2002-2010

f(x) = - 28.4221069686x + 1020.1433483613

R = 0.9792754551
2013 Carbon Dioxide Emissions andFuel Economy Trends ReportSection 9 Tables

400
Fuel economy
of the US(MPG)

391

1983-2010

1.5
Gas prices ($/gal)

700

0
12.0

0
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year
14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

24.0

Carbon diocide emission of the US (MPG)

Jul
0.975
0.901
0.949
0.59
0.712
0.698
0.835
0.819
0.85
0.842
0.757
0.743
0.832
0.837
0.788
0.64
0.726
1.145
0.979
0.919
1.044
1.421
1.79
2.448
2.394
3.502
2.031
2.192

Aug
0.989
0.886
0.948
0.544
0.72
0.701
0.791
0.931
0.853
0.831
0.746
0.788
0.8
0.817
0.835
0.622
0.801
1.074
0.943
0.937
1.156
1.404
2
2.445
2.238
3.186
2.154
2.211

Sep
0.978
0.89
0.941
0.55
0.715
0.682
0.767
1.039
0.863
0.826
0.723
0.786
0.786
0.813
0.849
0.604
0.841
1.117
0.964
0.946
1.213
1.415
2.45
2.023
2.248
3.077
2.059
2.153

Oct
0.945
0.891
0.937
0.537
0.709
0.68
0.759
1.12
0.842
0.822
0.723
0.77
0.758
0.825
0.811
0.615
0.86
1.107
0.809
0.971
1.122
1.548
2.111
1.726
2.309
2.53
2.057
2.337

Nov
0.949
0.884
0.928
0.541
0.71
0.689
0.746
1.125
0.849
0.82
0.701
0.789
0.725
0.861
0.773
0.593
0.86
1.1
0.681
0.965
1.066
1.491
1.699
1.734
2.588
1.706
2.209
2.453

Average
Dec
prices/ye
ar0.96
0.938
0.872
0.91
0.931
0.92
0.549
0.64
0.697
0.68
0.692
0.68
0.751
0.78
1.062
0.91
0.822
0.86
0.801
0.8
0.674
0.74
0.787
0.73
0.736
0.78
0.894
0.83
0.737
0.82
0.532
0.63
0.883
0.72
1.037
1.06
0.649
0.96
0.962
0.89
1.043
1.1
1.366
1.38
1.738
1.77
1.874
2.08
2.558
2.28
1.262
2.75
2.156
1.88
2.6
2.31

Rank
18
15
17
2
3
3
8
15
13
10
7
6
8
12
11
1
5
20
18
14
21
22
23
25
26
28
24
27

Year
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Correlation between PA gas prices and CO2 emission

490
correlation
between gas
prices and CO2
emission

470
f(x) = - 9.8728363145x + 473.2303513077
R = 0.0067048076
f(x) = - 26.5426272976x + 482.5956436415

Linear (correlation
between gas
prices and CO2
emission)

450
R = 0.420646038
CO2 emission (g/mi)
f(x) = 41.4238101045x + 394.5083729626
430
R = 0.109948892

1983-2001
Linear (19832001)

410

2002-2010
390
0.5

1.5
2
Gas prices ($/gal)

2.5

Linear (20022010)

December 2013

Part 3: transportation
The trend of fuel economy in the US from 1975-2011 is fas
The trend of carbon dioxide from 1975-2011 is fastly decre

From correlation graph between fuel economy and CO

From the correlation graph between Pennsylvania gas

Improvement to reduce CO2 emissions due to the transpor

The advantage of setting a limit for fuel economy to v

However, difficulties arise with increasing road freight

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/index

http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/basicinformation.htm

Fuel economy of the US from 1975-2011

30.0
25.0

Fuel econom

20.0

ADJ Comp ( MPG)

MA of cars

15.0

Fuel econom

10.0

MA of trucks

Fuel econom

5.0

MA of both

0.0

Year

Correlation between fuel economy and carbon dioxide emissio

800
700
600
500

f(x) = - 28.4221069686x + 1020.1433483613

R = 0.9792754551

Fuel 400
economy of the US(MPG)
300
200
100
0
12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Carbon diocide emission of the US (MPG)

24.0

0
12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Carbon diocide emission of the US (MPG)

24.0

US from 1975-2011 is fastly increasing in 1975-1987 period, stunt growth in 1987-2003 and increasing in 2003-2
1975-2011 is fastly decreasing in 1975-1987 period, stunt frowth in 1987-2003 and decreasing in 2003-2011

n fuel economy and CO2 emission data, there is high correlation between fule economy and carbon di
ween Pennsylvania gas prices and CO2 emission, there is a weak correlation between Pennsylvania ga

sions due to the transportation sector by reinforce legal framework to reduce CO2 emissions from new light dut

t for fuel economy to vehicle is that it will decrease CO2 emission.

increasing road freight traffic, regulation compliance and the new technology needed to afford the veh

transport/vehicles/index_en.htm

my/basicinformation.htm

US from 1975-2011
900

Carbon dioxide emission of the US from 19

800
Fuel economy of cars
MA of cars
Fuel economy of trucks
MA of trucks
Fuel economy of both
MA of both

700
600
500
400( MPG)
ADJ Comp
300
200
100
0

Year

y and carbon dioxide emission of the US

PA Average gas prices (1983

3

f(x) = 0.18783333
R = 0.713523549

2.5

83613

2
1.5
Gas prices ($/gal)
1
22.0

24.0

0.5

f(x) = 0.0009824561x - 1.146

R = 0.0021244022

S (MPG)
0
1980

1985

1990

1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

22.0

24.0

0.5

f(x) = 0.0009824561x - 1.146

R = 0.0021244022

S (MPG)
0
1980

1985

1990

1995
Year

2000

2005

2010

and increasing in 2003-2011 period.

reasing in 2003-2011

conomy and carbon dioxide emission ( 0.989). This is a negative correlation.

tween Pennsylvania gas prices and CO2 emission. The best fit line for each subset has low coefficient

sions from new light duty vehicles as part of efforts to ensure it meets its greenhouse gas emission reduction ta

eeded to afford the vehicles with lighter emission.

n of the US from 1975-2011

Carbon dioxide
emission by cars
MA of cars
Carbon dioxide
emission by trucks
MA of trucks
Carbon emission
of both
MA of both

Correlation between PA gas prices a

s prices (1983-2010)
f(x) = 0.1878333333x - 374.967
R = 0.7135235495

490
470

1983-2010
1983-2001
Linear (1983-2001)
2002-2010
Linear (2002-2010)

f(x) = - 9.8728363145x + 473.2303513077

R = 0.0067048076
f(x) = - 26.5426272976x + 482.5956436415
450
R = 0.420646038
CO2 emission (g/mi)
f(x) = 41.4238101045x + 394.5083729626
430
R = 0.109948892

46

ar

410

2000

2005

2010

2015

390
0.5

1.5
2
Gas prices ($/gal)

2.5

46

ar

410

2000

2005

2010

2015

390
0.5

1.5
2
Gas prices ($/gal)

2.5

set has low coefficient of correlation. The whole data has a coefficient of correlation of 0.006.

gas emission reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. A linear fit line for the correlation between fuel econom

n PA gas prices and CO2 emission

correlation
between gas
prices and CO2
emission

513077
482.5956436415

Linear
(correlation
between gas
prices and CO2
emission)

729626

2
al)

1983-2001
Linear (19832001)
2.5

2002-2010

2
al)

emission)
1983-2001
Linear (19832001)
2.5

2002-2010

ion of 0.006.

on between fuel economy and CO2 emission shows a strong correlation.