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7.1 Introduction
The theory of probability was developed towards the end of the 18th
century and its history suggests that it developed with the study of games
and chance, such as rolling a dice, drawing a card, flipping a coin etc.
Apart from these, uncertainty prevailed in every sphere of life. For
instance, one often predicts: "It will probably rain tonight." "It is quite
likely that there will be a good yield of cereals this year" and so on. This
indicates that, in laymans terminology the word probability thus
connotes that there is an uncertainty about the happening of events. To
put probability on a better footing we define it. But before doing so, we
have to explain a few terms."
7.2 Trial
A procedure or an experiment to collect any statistical data such as rolling a dice or flipping a
coin is called a trial.
Random Trial or Random Experiment
When the outcome of any experiment can not be predicted precisely then the experiment is
called a random trial or random experiment. In other words, if a random experiment is
repeated under identical conditions, the outcome will vary at random as it is impossible to
predict about the performance of the experiment. For example, if we toss a honest coin or roll
an unbiased dice, we may not get the same results as our expectations.
7.3 Sample space
The totality of all the outcomes or results of a random experiment is
denoted by Greek alphabet or English alphabets and is called the
sample space. Each outcome or element of this sample space is known as
a sample print.
Event
Any subset of a sample space is called an event. A sample space S serves
as the universal set for all questions related to an experiment 'S' and an
event A w.r.t it is a set of all possible outcomes favorable to the even t A
For example,
A random experiment :- flipping a coin twice
Sample space :- or S = {(HH), (HT), (TH), (TT)}
(3) An event corresponding to the entire sample space is called a certain event.
Complementary Events
Let S be the sample space for an experiment and A be an event in S. Then A is a subset of S.
Hence , the complement of A in S is also an event in S which contains the outcomes which
are not favorable to the occurrence of A i.e. if A occurs, then the outcome of the experiment
belongs to A, but if A does not occur, then the outcomes of the experiment belongs to
It is obvious that A and
= and A
= S.
This definition is due to Laplace. Thus probability is a concept which measures numerically
the degree of certainty or uncertainty of the occurrence of an event.
For example, the probability of randomly drawing taking from a well-shuffled deck of cards
is 4/52. Since 4 is the number of favorable outcomes (i.e. 4 kings of diamond, spade, club and
heart) and 52 is the number of total outcomes (the number of cards in a deck).
(certainty). Since the number of cases not favorable to A are (n - m), the probability q that
event A will not happen is,
q = or q = 1 - m/n or q = 1 - p.
Now note that the probability q is nothing but the probability of the complementary event A
i.e.
Thus p ( ) = 1 - p or p ( ) = 1 - p ( )
so that p (A) + p ( ) = 1 i.e. p + q = 1
It is assumed that the limit exists and finite uniquely. Symbolically p (A) = p =
provided it is finite and unique.
The two definitions are apparently different but both of them can be reconciled the same
sense.
Example Find the probability of getting heads in tossing a coin.
Solution : Experiment : Tossing a coin
Sample space : S = { H, T} n (S) = 2
Event A : getting heads
A = { H} n (A) = 1
Therefore, p (A) =
or 0.5
Therefore, p (A) =
Example Two dice are rolled. Find the probability that the score on the second die is greater
than the score on the first die.
Solution : Experiment : Two dice are rolled
Sample space : S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6) (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2,
6)}...
(6, 1), (6, 2) (, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }
n (S) = 6 6 = 36
Event A : The score on the second die > the score on the 1st die.
i.e. A = { (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6) (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6) (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6) (4, 5),
(4, 6) (5, 6)}
n (A) = 15
Therefore, p (A) =
Example A coin is tossed three times. Find the probability of getting at
least one head.
P( )=
Therefore, P (A) = 1 - P ( A ) =
Example A ball is drawn at random from a box containing 6 red balls, 4 white balls and 5
blue balls. Determine the probability that the ball drawn is (i) red (ii) white (iii) blue (iv) not
red (v) red or white.
Solution : Let R, W and B denote the events of drawing a red ball, a white ball and a blue
ball respectively.
(i)
Example What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays ?
Solution : A leap year has 52 weeks and 2 more days.
The two days can be :
Monday - Tuesday
Tuesday - Wednesday
Wednesday - Thursday
Thursday - Friday
Friday - Saturday
Saturday - Sunday and
Sunday - Monday.
There are 7 outcomes and 2 are favorable to the 53rd Sunday.
Example If four ladies and six gentlemen sit for a photograph in a row at
random, what is the probability that no two ladies will sit together ?
Solution :
Now if no two ladies are to be
together, the ladies have 7 positions, 2 at ends and 5 between the gentlemen
Arrangement L, G1, L, G2, L, G3, L, G4, L, G5, L, G6, L
Example In
a class there are 13 students. 5 of them are boys and the rest are girls.
Find the probability that two students selected at random wil be both
girls.
Solution : Two students out of 13 can be selected in
two girls out
of 8 can be selected in
ways and
ways.
Example A box contains 5 white balls, 4 black balls and 3 red balls.
Three balls are drawn randomly. What is the probability that they will
be (i) white (ii) black (iii) red ?
Solution : Let W, B and R denote the events of drawing three white,
three black and
three red balls respectively.
both)
In general, if the letters A and B stands for any two
events, then
In the language of set theory, the set any 3 or any diamond or both is the
union of the sets any 3 which contains 4 cards and any diamond which
contains 15 cards. The number of cards in their union is equal to the sum
of these numbers minus the number of cards in the space where they
overlap. Any points in this space, called the intersection of the two sets, is
counted here twice (double counting), once in each set. Dividing by 52 we
get the required probability.
Thus P (any 3 or any diamond or
both)
In general, if the letters A and B stands for any two events, then
Corollary
You are flipping a coin and wanting to find the probability of at least one head or at least one
tail. Now it is clear that the probability of one coin flip landing heads is 1/2 and that of one
coin flip landing tails is also 1/2. Now these two events are mutually exclusive as you cannot
expect a coin land both heads and tails in one trial. Therefore you can determine the required
(or
Thus if A and B are two mutually exclusive events then the probability that
either A or B will happen is the sum of the probabilities of A and B i.e. P (A
+ B) = P(A) + P(B)
for a nickle
probability of heads is
for a dime
for a penny
or 0.125.
Example In shuffling a pack of cards, 4 are accidentally dropped one after another. Find
the chance that the missing cards should be one from each suit.
Solution : Probability of 4 missing cards from different suits are as follows :
Let H, D, C and S denote heart, diamond, club and spade cards
respectively
respectively.
Example Tom and his wife Jenny appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same
post. The chance of Toms selection is 1/7 and that of Jennys selection is 1/5. What is the
probability that (i) both of them will be selected (ii) only one of them will be selected
(iii) none of them will be selected.
Solution : P (Toms selection) = 1/7 P (wife Jennys selection) = 1/5
Since there are 26 red cards of which 13 are diamonds, the probability
that the card is diamond is
Justification :- P (A/B) =
Similarly P(A/B) =
In both the cases if A and B are indeSince there are 10 balls in the first
bag out of which 6 are red and 4 are blue.
Suppose that A has occurred. Then a red ball is transferred into second
bag. The probability of getting a red ball from the second bag when a red
ball is got from the first is P (C/A) = 5/11
The probability of getting a red ball from the first bag and a red ball from
the second is
Example In a certain school, 25% of the boys and 10% of the girls are
studying French. The girls constitute 60% of the students boy. If a student
is selected at random and is studying French, determine the probability
that the student is a girl.
Solution : Let there be 100 students. 60% of which are girls.
i.e. number of girls is 60 and number of boys is 40.
P (AB) = P (A)
P (AB) = P(A)
. P (B)
. P (B)
Propositions
(1) If A and B are independent events then A and B' are also independent
where B' is the complementary event B.
(2) If A and B are independent events then A' and B' are also independent
events.
(3) Two independent events cannot be mutually exclusive.
(4) De Morgans Laws : P (A B)' = P (A' B')
P (A B)' = P (A' B' )
Example A bag contains 6 red and 4 blue balls. One ball is drawn at
random from the first bag and put into the second bag. A ball is then
drawn from the second bag. What is the probability that is red ?
Solution :
Let A = getting a red ball from the 1st bag.
B = getting a blue from the first bag.
C = getting a red ball from the second bag after the ball drawn from the
Example In a school competition, the probability of hitting the target by Dick is 1/2, by Betty
is 1/3 and by Joe is 3/5. If all of them fire independently at the same target, calculate the
probability that
(i) the target will be hit
(ii) only one of them will hit the target and
(iii) Dick hits, given that only one hits the target.
Solution :
Example From a deck of 52 cards, cards are drawn randomly without replacement. What is
the probability of drawing a King of hearts at the third attempt ? If it was drawn at the 15th
attempt, what was the probability ?
Example One card is drawn randomly from a pack of 52 cards and put aside. What is the
probability of drawing an ace or a king in a single draw, from the remaining 51 cards ?
Solution : The probability of the required draw depends upon the results of the first draw.
There are three cases (1) First card is an ace (2) a king (3) neither an ace nor a king.
(1) P (A) =
Now in the remaining lot of 51 cards, there are 3 aces and 4 kings.
(2) P (A) =
Now in the remaining lot of 51 cards, there are now 4 aces and 3 kings.
Required probability
7.7 Theoretical Distributions
Random variable and probability distributions
Random variables : When we assign a number to each point of a sample
space, we have a function which is defined on the sample space. This
function is called a random variable (or stochastic variable).
It is usually denoted by bold letters like X or Y.
Consider two independent tosses of a fair coin
\ S = { (HH), (HT), (TH), (TT) }
Let X denote the number of heads.
Then X (HH) = 2, X (HT) = 1, X(TH) = 1 and X(TT) = 0
i.e. X = 0, 1, 2. Here X is known as a random variable. Thus a random variable is one, which
denotes the numerical value of an outcome, of a random experiment.
(1) If the random variable X takes only finite values or countably infinite values, then X is
known as a discrete variable
(2) If the random variable takes the uncountably infinite values between a specified range or
limit, it is called as continuous random variable.
For example : X denotes the age of a person.
Also P (HH) =
, P (HT) =
, P (TH) =
and P (HH) =
P(x)
0 or 0.25
or 0.50
2 or 0.25
The probability graph can be obtained by using a bar chart as shown in
figure 1 or a Histogram as shown in figure 2.
(in which sum of the rectangular area is 1), the sum (total) of probabilities
of all values of X always equal to 1.
Thus, if the random variable X = X1, X2 , X3, ......Xi , ......Xn and Xi each is associated with a
number Pi i.e. X1 with P1, X2 with P2 ......., Xn = Pn. Then Pi is called probabilities of Xi and is
denoted by P (Xi ) or simply P(X) which satisfies (1) P (Xi) > 0
(2)
then P (Xi ) or P(X) is called the probability mass function of the discrete
random variable X.
i.e.
P(X)
X1
X2
X3 ......... Xn
P1
P2
P3 ......... Pn
Mean ( X or ) =
Therefore
or =
= E (X)
i.e. x2 =
Example A business can make a profit of $2000/- with the probability 0.4 or it can have a
loss of $1000/- with the probability 0.6. What is the expected profit ?
Solution : The discrete random variable x is
x1 = $ 2000 (profit)
x2 = - $1000 (loss)
With probabilities P1 = 0.4 and P2 = 0.6 respectively
Then expected profit is given by,
E(x) = P1x1 + P2x2
= (0.4) (2000) + (0.6) (-1000)
= $ 200
Example What is the expected value of the number of points that will be obtained in a single
throw of an ordinary dice ?
Example Two dice are thrown. Find the mathematical expression of the
sum of the points obtained.
Solution : Let X = sum of points obtained.
P (Xi) =
Now the expected sum of points is,
E (x) =
E(x) = 7
0,
Pi : 0,
1,
2 ,
2,
2,
3,
,
4,
5,
3,
6,
2,
7
2 2 ,
72 + l
= 1/10 or = -1 (discarded)
=
(3) P (x < 4) = P (3) + P (2) + P (1) + P (0)
=+ 2+ + 0
= 5l
=5
= 0.5
7.8 Binomial Distribution
Bernoullis trials : A series of independent trials which can be resulted in one of the two
mutually exclusive possibilities 'successes' or 'failures' such that the probability of the success
(or failures) in each trials is constant, then such repeated independent trials are called as
"Bernoullis trials".
A discrete variable which can results in only one of the two outcomes (success or failure) is
called Binomial.
For example, a coin flip, the result of an examination success or failures, the result of a game
- win or loss etc. The Binomial distribution is also known as Bernoullis distribution, which
expresses probabilities of events of dichotomous nature in repeated trials.
When do we get a Binomial distribution ?
The following are the conditions in which probabilities are given by binomial distribution.
1. A trial is repeated 'n' times where n is finite and all 'n' trials are identical.
2. Each trial (or you can call it an event) results in only two mutually exclusive,
exhaustive but not necessarily equally likely possibilities, success or failure.
3. The probability of a "success" outcome is equal to some percentage which is
identified as proportion, (or p)
4. This proportion (or p), remains constant throughout all events (or trials). It is
defined as the ratio of the number of successes to the number of trials.
5. The events (or trials) are independent.
6. If probability of success is p or , then the probability of failures is 1 - p or
1 - this is denoted by q. Thus p + q = 1.
Suppose a coin is flipped twice. Let p (or ) be the probability of getting heads and q the
probability of tails, such that p + q = 1 (note that p = q = 1/2 if the coin is fair) Then there are
three possible outcomes which are given below.
1. If x denotes the Binomial variate, expression of x i.e. the mean of the distribution is
given by,
2. The standard deviation of the Binomial distribution is determined by,
Example Take 100 sets of tosses of 10 flips of a fair coin. In how many cases do you expect
to get 7 heads at least ?
Solution : We have N = 100 sets. n = 10 trials in each set p = 0.5 and q = 1 - p =0.5
Probability (getting at least 7 heads) in one set
= p (x = 7) + p (x = 8) + p (x = 9) + p (x = 10)
Therefore in 100 sets = N p (r) = 100 (0.171) 17 times you can expect to get
at least 7 heads.
Solution :
Let 'n' be the required number of trials to get the probability of at least one success which is ,
1 - n C 0 P 0 Q n-0 [ since probability (at least one success) = 1 - p (x = 0)
i.e. 1 - probability (No success)]
Example A and B play a game in which As chance of winning is 2/9. In a series of 8 games,
what is the chance that A will win at least 9 games ?
Solution : Here As chance of winning = p = 2/9
Therefore q = 1 - p = 1 - 2/9 = 7/9, n = 8
The probability (A will win at least 6 games in a series of 8 games)
Definition : If we know a curve such that the area under the curve from x = a to x = b is
equal to the probability that x will take a value between a and b and that the total area under
the curve is unity, then the curve is called the probability curve.
If the curve is described by a relation y = (x) then y = (x) is called a probability density or
simply probability function.
Among all the probability curves, the normal curve is the most important one. The
corresponding function is called the normal probability function and the probability
distribution is called the normal distribution. The normal distribution can be considered as the
limiting form of the Binomial Distribution, however n, the number of trials, is very large and
neither P nor q is very small.
The normal distribution is given by
Solution :
The Normal Curve : The shape of a normal curve is like a bell. It is symmetrical about the
maximum ordinate If P and Q are two points on the x-axis (see figure), the shaded are PQRS,
bounded by the portion of the curve RS, the ordinates at P and Q and the x-axis is equal to the
probability that the variate x lies between x = a and x = b at P and Q respectively. We have
already seen that the total area under a normal curve is unity. Any probability distribution,
defined this way is known as the normal distribution. The distribution can be completely
known if we know the values of and . Therefore and are known as the parameters of
the distribution. The normal distribution with mean and standard deviation s is denoted by
N (, ).
1. The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetrical about the maximum ordinate at x =
, the mean. This ordinate divides the curve into two equal parts. The part on one side
is the mirror image of the other side. it has the maximum height at x = . Thus the
mode of the distribution is also . The ordinate x = divides the whole area under the
curve into two equal parts. Hence the median is also x = . Thus for the normal
distribution, the mean, mode and median coincide. i.e. mean = median = mode = .
2. We know that the area under the normal curve is equivalent to the probability of
randomly drawing a value in the given range. The area is the greatest in the middle,
where the "hump" (where mean, mode and median coincide) and then thin out
towards out on the either sides of the curve, i.e. tails, but never becomes zero. In other
words, the curve never intersects x-axis at any finite point. i.e. x-axis is its Asymptote.
3. Since the curve is symmetrical about mean. The first quartile Q1 and the third quartile
Q3 lie at the same distance on the two sides of the mean . The distance of any
quartile from is 0.6745 units. Thus,
4. Since the normal curve is symmetrical its skewness is zero and kurtosis is 3. The
curve is meso kurtic.
approximately.
6. As discussed earlier, the probability for the variable to lie in any interval ( a, b ) in the
range of variable is given by the are under the normal curve, the two ordinates x = a
and x = b, and the x-axis.
The area under the normal curve is distributed as follows :
1. The area between x = - and x = + is 18.27%
2. The area between x = - 2 and x = + 2 is 95.45%
3. The area between x = - 3 and x = + 3 is 99.73%
These areas are shown in the following figure.
i.
Q1 = -
= 50 -
Also Q3 = +
15 = 40
- 50 +
15 = 60
=
15 = 12
ii.
iii.
The Standard Normal Variate ( Z-Score ) : The problem of finding the probability reduces
to finding the area between the two ordinates. For different values of and we get different
normal curves, which multiplies it into too many problems if we are to find the area between
the given values for different curves with different and .
All such problems can be reduced to a single one by reducing all normal distributions to a
single normal distribution called 'Standardized Normal Distribution' or to what is known as
the z-score.
where x = the value to be converted, = the population mean and = the population standard
deviation. obviously the = 0 and = 1 for the Normal standard distribution. it is denoted by
N (0,1 ).
The areas under the curve between x = 0 and various ordinate x = a are in a table of standard
normal probabilities. This area is equal to the probability that x will assume a value between
x = 0 and x = a.
How to use Table : The table gives the areas from the ordinate x = 0 to x = 3.09 which
covers more than 0.499 units of area on one side i.e. more than 0.99 units of area on both
sides, the total area being 1, and it is 0.5 on both sides.
If the variate is not standardized first then convert it into a standardized normal variate i.e. zscore, using z =
variate.
and find the limits of z-score corresponding to the given limits of the
0.02
.............0.08
0.09
z)
1.9
ii.
0.4713
0.4719 ............
0.4767
Area from z = -0.68 to 0 is the same as from 0 to 0.68 by symmetry. hence for z =
0.68 it is 0.2518.
P ( -0.68 z 0 = 0.2518 i.e. 25% of area.
iii) Area from 0 to 1.35 is 0.4115 and from 0 to 2.18 is 0.4854. The required area is the
difference between the two areas.