1

August19,1997
RevisedNovember6,1997

THERUSSIANFORESTSECTOR
APositionPaperforTheWorldCommissiononForestsand
SustainableDevelopment
By
StenNilssonandAnatolyShvidenko
ForestResourcesProject
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,

A2361Laxenburg,Austria

1.Introduction
Russiasvastforestsareanaturalresourceofglobalimportance,botheconomically
andecologically. TheyalreadyserveRussiaandtheworldasasourceofwood,a
symbolofwilderness,andacriticalstabilizeroftheglobalclimate.
Sprawlingover11timezones,fromtheBalticSeatothePacific,Russiahas23%of
theworldsforestareas(forestareadefinedaccordingtotheFAO,1995). These
forestareashost2122%oftheworldsgrowingstock(ShvidenkoandNilsson,1996;
1997),andcontain11%oftheworldsliveforestbiomass(Shvidenko,1997).This
biomasshasaboutthesameamountofcarbonasthetotaltropicalforestbiomassin
Asia(FAO,1995).Inaddition,Russianforestscontainmorethan55%oftheworlds
growingstockofconiferousspecies(UN,1992;ShvidenkoandNilsson,1996).
Everyone has a stake in the intelligent, sustainable development of this resource.
Fromapoliticalpointofview,theformerSovietUnionpaidreasonableattentionto
theforestsectoranditsdevelopment.Forestmanagementprincipleswerebuilton
classicalEuropeanforestry. TheheartofRussianforestryhasbeenandisoriented
towardsecosystemandlandscapemanagement,whicharecrucialcomponentsofthe
sustainabledevelopmentconcept.However,authoritarianpoliticalregimes,astrongly
centralizedmanagement,andthelackofasoundeconomymadetheforestsectors
developmentinsufficient. Bytheearly1990s,hugeproblems accumulatedinthe

Soviet forest sector, and the transition explicitly revealed and enforced these
problems.
ChangeinRussiabringsunprecedentedopportunitiesandrisks.InspiteofRussias
mineral and timber wealth, it suffers from a weak economy and severe social
problems.CarelessexploitationofRussianforestscouldholdbackRussiaseconomic
renewal, permanently scarring the local environment, and destabilizing the global
climate. Conversely, healthy forests and forest industries could help revitalize
Russiaseconomyandsociety,openanewsourceoftimberforglobalmarkets,and
improvetheecologicalwellbeingoftheentireworld.
RestructuringRussiasforestindustrywillbedifficultandcostly.Massiveindustrial
developments, obsolete technology, low productivity, and poor quality products
characterizethehistoricallegacy. Themajorityofwoodislocatedfarfrommain
worldmarkets.Itwouldtakeaconcertedefforttoovercomethesedifficulties.The
worldhasseentoomanyforestsusedasashorttermcashcrop,withoutregardforthe
longtermeconomic,environmental,andsocialconsequences. Thechallengeisto
avoidthesameinRussia.
TheaimofthispaperistodescribetheRussianforestsectorandidentifyitsproblems.

2.TheForestResource
Russiasforestresourcesarehuge. Thegeneralopinionamongthepublicandthe
scientificcommunityworldwideisthatRussianforestsaredisappearing(Barrand
Braden,1988;andforArcviewseeShvidenkoandNilsson,1997).However,explicit
conclusionsonthestateandthedevelopmentofforestareasandthegrowingstockof
Russianforestscanonlybebasedonanumericalanalysisofchangesininventory
dataofforestsoveranextendedperiod.Themajorsourceofinformationforthetotal
RussianforestsistheStateForestAccount,anaccountinginventorythatisupdated
every fiveyears. This accountinginventoryis basedonthreedifferentmethods:
forestinventoryandplanning(FIP,agroundinventoryofmanagedforests);aerial
inventorymethods;andremotesensing. Anumberofstudies(seeShvidenkoand
Nilsson,1997)showthattheFIPmethodunderestimatesthegrowingstockinmature
andovermaturestandsby515%.Vastareasinthenorthareunmanagedandunused
forestterritories.Toinventorytheseareasaerialinventorymethodswereintroduced
in1948andcontinuedtothe1960s.Latervalidationofthesemethods(seeShvidenko
and Nilsson, 1997) shows that they overestimated the growing stock in remote
northernareasbyupto2025%,andsometimesupto3050%. Inthe1960sthis
methodwasreplacedbyremotesensingmethodswithastandarderrorof3at95%
probability for the growing stock. By 1995, areas that were initially inventoried
solelythroughaerialinventorymethodsaccountedforroughly90millionhainthe
extremenorthernforesttundraandinpuretundraareas. Thecurrentstateofthese
forestsisunknown,buttheimpactoftheseareasontrendsandaggregateddataon
Russianforestsisnegligible.

Inspiteoftheshortcomingsillustratedabove,itshouldbepointedoutthataggregated
Russianforestinventorydataareatleastofthesamequalityasinothercountriesof
theborealzone(Raile,1994)andcanbeusedtoestimatethedevelopmentofthe
Russianforestsfromthe1960sthroughtheearly1990s.
Inventorymanualshavebeenchangedsince1964withrespecttoclassificationsand
definitions. We have tried to account for these changes and to present the
developmentofdifferentcategories(seeBox1forfurtherexplanation)offorestareas
andgrowingstockinallRussianforestsduring19611993basedontheStateForest
Account(Table1). Formoredetaileddevelopmentinformationofdifferentforest
categoriesseeFederalForestServiceofRussia(1995),ForestNewspaper(1997),and
ShvidenkoandNilsson(1997).
Table1.Developmentofdifferentcategoriesofforestareasandgrowingstockinall
Russianforestsbetween1961and1993(areasaregiveninmillionhaandgrowing
stockinbillionm3).
Indicators

1961

1966

1973

1978

1983

1988

Forestfund(FF),x106ha
1162.9 1161.9 1161.4 1186.2 1187.7 1182.6
Forestland(FL),x106ha
848.1 863.0 862.1 872.3 880.5
884.1
Forestedarea(FA),x106ha
695.5 705.6 729.7 749.5 766.6
771.1
FAinEuropeanRussia,x106ha
148.9 161.3 158.8 163.5 164.4
166.0
FAinAsianRussia,x106ha
546.6 544.3 570.8 586.0 602.2
606.1
TotalFAavailableforharvest,x106ha 295.6 342.9 338.6 345.6 385.3
406.2
TotalFAasapercentageoftotalland
40.8
41.3
42.8
43.9
44.9
45.2
area,%
TotalGrowingstock(GS),x109m3
77.5
77.0
78.7
80.7
81.9
81.7
GSinEuropeanRussia,x109m3
16.3
17.0
17.4
18.7
19.3
20.3
GSinAsianRussia,x109m3
61.2
60.0
61.3
62.0
62.6
61.4
GStotalinmatureandovermature
51.1
48.0
46.4
45.3
43.0
40.0
coniferousforests,x109m3
Source:DatafromtheStateForestAccountof1961,1966,1973,1978,1983,1988and1993.

1993 Relative
change,
1993to
1961
1180.9 1.02
886.5 1.05
763.5 1.10
166.6 1.12
597.0 1.09
351.1 1.19
44.7 1.10
80.7
21.1
59.6
35.3

Box1.RussianForestCategories
OneofsevenbasiclandcovercategoriesusedintheformerSovietUnion(andcurrentlyinRussia)is
theForestFund(FF),whichis,accordingtoRussianlegislation(1997),allforestsandalllandallocated
forforestpurposes.TheFFisdividedintoForestLand(FL)andNonforestLand(NFL).ForestLandis
designatedforforestgrowthandincludesForestedAreas(FA)andUnforestedAreas(UFA).FAare
areas covered by forests with relative stocking rates of 0.4 or more for young stands and relative
stockingratesof0.3andmoreforotherstands. UFAareregionsthataretemporarilyforestlessand
includeburnedareas,deadstands,sparseforests,unregeneratedharvestingareas,andgrassyglades.
NFLincludestwolandtypes:(1)areasthatareunacceptableforforestgrowthundercurrentconditions
(mires,rocks,tundraareas,sands,etc.);and(2)landssetasideforspecialpurposes(roads,hayfields,
andsoon).ThelatestRussianinventorymanualfurtherdividestheFLintononclosedplantedforests,
forestplantationsandnurseries,andnaturalsparseforests.Themainforestformingspeciesincludes
threegroupsoftreespecies:(1)coniferous(pine,larch,spruce,fir,andRussiancedarPinussibirica

1.04
1.29
0.97
0.69

4
and P.koraiensis);(2)harddeciduous(oak,hornbeam,ash,stonebirch,etc.);and(3)softdeciduous
species(basicallybirchandaspen).
Inaddition,eachforestcategoryisdividedintothreegroupsdependingonthesocialpurposesandthe
utilizationoftheforests:
GroupI=Protectiveforeststhatmainlyfulfillenvironmentalandsocialfunctionsandwithverystrong
limitationsontheindustrialharvest.
GroupII=Mainlyprotectiveforestswithrestrictedindustrialuse.
GroupIII=Forestswithseveralfunctionsbutthemajorfunctionisproductionofindustrialwood.

BasedonTable1anddetailedtablespresentedbyShvidenkoandNilsson(1997)we
canmakethefollowingconclusions.
From1961to1993forestedareasincreasedby68millionha(9.8%),mainlyinforests
understateforestmanagement(some95%oftotalforestareasareunderstateforest
management).Duringthesameperiodthetotalgrowingstockofallforestsincreased
by3.2billionm3,althoughgrowingstockofforestsunderstateforestmanagement
decreasedby1.1billionm3.Asignificantdecreaseinthegrowingstockisobserved
inconiferousforestsunderstateforestmanagement,some5billionm 3.Asignificant
decreaseinthegrowingstockofallmatureandovermatureconiferousforeststook
placebetween1983and1993.Thetotaldecreasecorrespondsto7.7billionm 3with
themajordeclineoccurringintheAsianpart(Siberia).Thislatterdeclinecannotbe
explainedbyharvests.Otherfactorshavecontributedtothedeclineoftotalgrowing
stockinAsianRussia(forfurtherdetailsseeShvidenkoandNilsson,1997).
Anindicatorthatisprobablymoderatelyfreefrombiasistheaveragegrowingstock
byagegroupandspecies.Thereisasignificantincreaseintheaveragegrowingstock
(rangingfrom20to50%)observedforallagegroupsandspeciesduring19611993,
withtwoexceptions.Theseexceptionsarematureandovermatureconiferousspecies
(owingtotheforestrypolicytoharvestthebestandmostproductiveforests),and
youngdeciduousspecies(duetonaturalpostfireandpostharvestregeneration).
Wehavealreadyidentifiedthatsystematicerrorsexistintheinventorydataofthe
StateForestAccount. Wehavemadeadjustmentsfortheseerrors(Shvidenkoand
Nilsson,1997)andreconstructedthedevelopmentofthegrowingstockinTable2.
Table2.ReconstructeddevelopmentoftotalgrowingstockinallRussianforests
from1961to1993.
Indicators
PercentageofFFareainventoriedbyFIPin
EuropeanRussia
PercentageofFFareainventoriedbyFIPin
AsianRussia
ReconstructedGSinEuropeanRussia,
x109m3
ReconstructedGSinAsianRussia,x109m3
TotalreconstructedGSforRussia,x109m3

1961 1966

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

36
9

41
22

44
30

56
38

75
52

88
59

94
60

16.4

16.5

17.3

18.3

19.9

21.4

22.2

58.6
75.0

59.2
75.7a

60.2
77.5

62.1
80.4

64.6
84.5

64.2
85.6

62.6
84.8

5
Deviationinpercentagebetweenreconstructed
andofficialFSAdatafortotalGSinRussia

3.3

1.7

1.5

0.4

+3.2

+4.9

+5.1

a)

Thelongtermleasedforestswerenotinventoriedwithrespecttogrowingstockin1966(about2.2%
ofthetotalgrowingstock).

Inthiscaseweobtainatotalincreaseofgrowingstockof9.8billionm3during1961
1993forallRussianforests.Forthisperiod,theincreaseinEuropeanRussiacanbe
estimatedto5.8billionm3andinAsianRussiatobe4billionm 3.Buteveninthis
calculationaseveredeclineof2billionm3inthetotalgrowingstockofAsianRussia
canbeidentifiedfortheperiod19831993.
Thedevelopments presentedsofarmakeitdifficulttojustifythepremisethatat
globalperspectiveRussianforestsaredisappearing,withrespecttoareasandgrowing
stock. Theconclusionisalsothatduringtheperiod19611993thephytosynthetic
capacity of the Russian forests increased by some 15% (Shvidenko and Nilsson,
1996).However,thisisfarfromthecompletepicture.Thereisnodoubtthatparallel
withtheabovedevelopments,therehasbeenaseriousqualitativeimpoverishmentof
the Russian forests, mainly in regions with intensive harvesting. This will be
illustratedusingtwoimportantregions,namelytheEuropeanNorthandtheFarEast
ofRussia.
Overharvestingbyclearcuts(whichauthoritiesacceptedforseveraldecades)hasled
tothedepletionofforestsintheEuropeanpart,worseningofecologicalconditions
overvastareas,andlossesofhighlyproductivesites.Thisdevelopmentultimately
resultedinadeclinedsupplyofwoodtotheindustry.Examplesofoverharvestingin
1988arepresentedinTable3.
Table3.Overharvestingofconiferousstandsin1988(expressedin1000m3).
Region

Numberof
investigated
enterprises

Archangelsk
Vologda
Karelianrepublic
Komirepublic
Kostroma
Kirov
Perm
Sverdlovsk
Irkutsk
Magadan
Totala
Source:PisarenkoandStrakhov,1996.
a
Overharvestbyabout35%

13
13
14
15
7
8
22
5
10
1
108

Annual
allowable
cut

Actual
harvest

3440.1
747.0
1132.1
3305.7
280.4
188.4
1957.0
131.8
1544.3
21.0
12,747.8

3831.4
1154.7
1282.4
4139.6
307.7
597.2
2243.6
299.3
3067.6
25.0
17,128.5

The overharvested areas in the European part have a low potential for increased
production.Theresourceswereexploitedinaveryunsustainablemanner.Themost

productive coniferous stands were exploited, while the less productive ones and
deciduousspeciesstandswerehardlyusedatall. Asaresult,asteadyincreaseof
swampyforestsoflowersiteclassesoccurred.By1990,e.g.,thegrowingstockof
matureforestscouldprovidesustainableharvestlevels(1990levels)foranadditional
25yearsintheVologdaoblast,for36yearsinKarelia,andfor4045yearsinthe
Murmanskoblast(Isaev,1991).Thus,evenifonly82%ofthetotalannualallowable
cut(AAC)wereharvestedduring1970and1990intheEuropeanpartofRussia,the
AACswereviolatedforindividualspecies,speciesgroupsandatsubregionallevels.
IntheRussianFarEastthesituationhasbeensomewhatdifferent.Onlylargetrees
wereharvestedandtheremovalfromharvestedareaswasroughly4565%ofthe
growingstockofmixedstandsdominatedbyconiferousspeciesinthisregion.The
totalforestedareasincreasedby8.1%or17.5millionhaintheFarEastunderstate
managementbetween1966and1993,althoughcedarforests(Pinuskoraiensis)in
Khabarovskkrajdecreasedbysome60%(from1.46to0.56millionha). Between
1965and1988roughly8millionhaofthemostproductivestandswereharvested
(mainlyasclearcuts)intheFarEast. In1988,34%ofthisareawasclassifiedas
unregeneratedharvestedareas(Sheingauz,1989).
Thus, it can be concluded that the quality of Russian forests was seriously
impoverishedbetween1961and1993(withdecreasedextentofvaluabletreespecies,
decreasedtreesizes,regionaloverharvesting,etc.).Asecondnegativedevelopment
oftheRussianforestsisanundesirablechangeinthedistributionofdominantspecies,
especiallyintheEuropeanNorth.Inthisregion,secondarybirchandaspenforestsof
indigenousspruceandpinesitesexceed30millionhaandareprojectedtoincreaseto
6070millionhaduringthenext1520years.
Features and characteristics of the Russian forests can be described in many
dimensionsbutthis wouldrequirealotofpaper. Therefore,wehavedecidedto
describefeaturesoftheforestsinmapform,whichispresentedintheAppendix.

3.EnvironmentalSignificance
3.1.Productivity
Productivity of forest ecosystems is an important criterion for sustainable
developmentoflandscapes,biochemicalcycles,biodiversity,andforestmanagement.
3.1.1.Biomass
An important indicator of the productivity is the total forest phytomass density
(kg/m2).Resultsfromthemostcurrentanddetailedinventoryandcalculationofthe
Russianforestphytomassarepresentedin Table4 (forasummaryseeShvidenko,
1997).

Table4. Live biomassandcarboninforestecosystemsoftotalforestedareasof

Russia(inTg).
Forestecosystembiomasscomponent,drymatter,Tg
Economic Stemwood Crown
regiona overbark wood

Roots

Foliage

Under
story

Totalb

Carboncontent
Biomass
density
(kg/m2)

Density
Total(Tg) (kg/Cm2)

Europeanpart
PRI
NOR
NW
CEN
VOV
CEC
POV
NOC
URA
Total

21.8
3660.6
700.2
1355.7
816.9
106.1
284.6
361.2
2245.9
9553.0

3.5
721.3
86.2
166.8
105.9
20.8
39.1
107.2
308.8
1559.6

6.6
1263.4
213.1
431.1
256.2
25.6
74.2
86.4
705.0
3061.6

1.5
548.9
47.2
93.0
61.6
5.3
14.2
14.3
194.9
980.9

1.4
526.9
49.8
99.0
64.1
6.7
18.4
16.5
181.1
963.9

35.0
6721.1
1096.4
2145.6
1304.7
164.4
430.3
585.6
3635.6
16,118.7

12.86
8.87
10.85
10.30
9.72
11.05
9.00
15.68
10.14
9.70

17.4
3306.7
543.4
1063.2
646.0
80.6
213.6
291.3
1799.0
7961.2

6.40
4.37
5.28
5.10
4.81
5.42
4.47
7.80
5.02
4.79

WES
EAS
FEA
Total

5062.6
13,044.3
10,441.0
28,547.9

898.2
1792.4
1394.3
4084.8

1329.6
3969.0
3576.6
8875.3

365.9
768.2
509.7
1643.8

706.4
8374.6
1384.3 21,241.5
1609.2 18,637.7
3699.8 48,253.8

9.30
9.32
6.67
8.08

4187.3
10,620.7
9318.9
24,126.9

4.65
4.66
3.34
4.04

Russia
Total

38,100.9

5644.4 11,936.9

2624.7

4663.7 64,372.5

8.43

32,088.1

4.20

Asianpart

AbbreviationsoftheRussianeconomicregionsinthetableare:PRI,Pribaltisky;NOR,Northern;
NW,NorthWestern;CEN,Central;VOV,VolgoVjatskiy;CEC,CentralChernozjomny;POV,
Povolshsky;NOC,NorthCaucasus;URA,UralinRussianEurope;WES,WestSiberia;EAS,East
Siberia;FEA,FarEastinAsianRussia.
b

ThetotalfortheAsianpartofRussiaincludes,inadditiontothebiomassofclosedforests,the
biomassofshrubs,whichareaccountedforasforestedareasinregionswithsevereclimaticconditions
inRussia,whereclosedforestscannotgrow.InWESthereis11.9Tgofdrymatter,inEAS283.3Tg,
andinFEA1106.9Tg;theshrubberyphytomassismainlyrepresentedbythebiomassofecosystems
dominatedbyDwarfpine(Pinuspumila).

Therearelargevariationsinbiomassdensity,especiallyfortheAsianpart.Thetotal
biomassofRussianforestsisestimatedtobe64,373Tgofdrymatterwith24.8%in
theEuropeanpartand75.2%intheAsianpart(Shvidenko,1997).Thisissome10%
morethanthetotalforestbiomassoftropicalAsia.AsstatedinSection2,serious
negativetendenciesinforestdynamicshaverecentlybeenidentifiedinAsianRussia,
which has also influenced the phytomass density and productivity in a negative
direction.
3.1.2.Incrementandmortalityofstemwood

Incrementandmortalityofstemwoodareimportantcomponentsoftheproductivity
andimportantcriteriaforsustainablebiochemicalcyclesandforestmanagement(and
economicwoodsupplyanalyses).
CurrentincrementisnotmonitoredbytheRussianinventorysystem. Basedona
speciallydevelopedsystem,existingRussiangrowthmodelsandexperimentaldata,
theIIASAForestStudyhasbeenabletoprovidethefirstaggregatedestimatesonthe
primaryindicatorsofthecurrentincrementoftheRussianforests(Shvidenkoetal.,
1995;1996a,b).Thefollowingestimatesongrossgrowth,mortalityandnetgrowth
presentedinTable5forforestedareasinRussiaarebasedonShvidenkoetal.(1997).
Table5.Gross,netincrementandmortalityfortotalforestedareasinRussia.
Economic
regiona

Forestedareas Growing Netgrowth

(thousandha)
stock
(million
(millionm3) m3/year)

Mortality
(million
m3/year)

Gross
growth
(million
m3/year)

Europeanpart
PRI
NOR
NW
CEN
VOV
CEC
POV
NOC
URA
Total

271.9
75,742.4
10,105.7
20,834.5
13,426.5
1487.3
4781.0
3735.8
35,838.6
166,223.7

46.6
7935.4
1583.9
3109.6
1862.7
213.8
596.8
662.3
5099.4
21,110.9

1.31
114.52
29.22
77.46
48.28
7.14
17.19
13.06
108.90
417.08

1.00
119.24
26.48
61.08
40.00
5.62
15.31
11.68
93.67
374.08

2.30
233.77
55.70
138.55
88.28
12.75
32.50
24.74
202.57
791.16

Asianpart
WES
EAS
FEA
Total

90,011.5
227,836.0
279,429.6
597,277.1

10,950.3
27,658.2
20,957.0
59,565.5

112.98
250.07
185.27
548.32

118.04
227.13
188.90
534.08

231.02
477.20
374.17
1082.39

Shrubbery(AsianRussia)
Total
763,500.8

80,676.4

0.91
966.31

5.30
913.45

6.21
1879.76

Russia

ForanExplanationoftheabbreviationsrefertoTable4 .

Russianforestedareaswereestimatedtogenerateatotalgrossgrowthof1880million
m3peryearinthebeginningofthe1990s,ofwhichthenetgrowthwas966millionm 3
per year. Mortality mainly due to socalled nonstand replacing disturbances
(includingnaturalmortality)was914millionm3peryear.

10

ThenetgrowthinEurope(excludingEuropeanRussia)isestimatedtobesome630
millionm3peryear(UN,1996).Thegrossannualincrementsofexploitableforestsin
theUSAandCanadaareestimatedtobe765millionm 3and208millionm3peryear,
respectively.
TheRussianFederalForestService(1995)hasestimatedthesocalledaveragegrowth
inRussiatobe822millionm3 peryearforforestsunderstatemanagement. An
approximateestimateforallRussianforestscorrespondsto900millionm 3peryearor
7%lessthantheIIASAestimateonnetgrowth.However,forindividualsubregions
ofRussia,thedifferencebetweenaverageandnetgrowthcanreach 30%,which
supportstheconclusionthattheaverageincrementisnotsufficienttocharacterizethe
currentproductivityoftheRussianforests.
From Table5,itcanbeseenthatthemortalityconstitutessome49%ofthegross
growth.Thisisextremelyhigh,butcanbeexplainedbyhugeareasinRussiawith
unexploited and overmature forests as well as a significant extent of nonstand
replacingdisturbances,suchasforestfires,insectoutbreaks,etc.Thus,mortalityis
veryhighintheseforestsandhardlyanythinningtakesplace,whichwouldreduce
thiskindofmortality.
ItcouldbeinterestingtocomparecurrentproductivityoftheRussianforestswithan
achievableproductivityunderagivenecologicalstructureandasustainableforest
management. ThelatterproductivitycanbeestimatedbymapsovertheRussian
terrestrialbiotaproductivityproducedbyBazilevich(1993). Regionalcomparisons
show a good correspondence between current and achievable productivity in the
western and central parts of European Russia. Large territories in the European
North,SiberiaandtheFarEasthaveacurrentproductivity,whichcorrespondstoonly
4570%oftheachievableone.
3.1.3.Disturbancesandprotection
Only60%oftheRussianforestsareprotectedagainstlargescaledisturbances.Thus,
anyestimatesontheextentoflargescaledisturbancesincludeassumptionsandexpert
estimates.Thereisnodoubtthatprimarylargescaledisturbancesoccupymorethan
10millionhaofforestedareasannually(Shvidenko,1997).However,thisdoesnot
meanthatalloftheseforestsaredestroyed.TheWorldBank(1997)statesthattwo
millionha(plusonemillionhathroughharvesting)aredestroyedannuallybylarge
scale disturbances. Our estimates (see below) indicate that the average annual
forestedareasdestroyedbylargescaledisturbancescannotexceedonemillionha.
Forestfires
ThereisnocompleteforestfiremonitoringsysteminRussia(about40%offorested
areasisnotmonitored). Currentstatestatisticsfortheperiod19881993onforest
firesforfireprotectedareasindicateanaverageannualburntareaof1.1millionhaof
theForestFund,ofwhich0.9millionhaarelocatedinforestedareas. Officially
reportedannualburntareasareshowninFigure1.Thereismuchevidencethateven

11

the data for fire protected areas are underestimated. Data prior to 1988 were
deliberately falsified and are probably underestimated by 34 times. Evaluations
madebytheIIASAForestStudyhaveledtotheconclusionthattheaverageannual
areaimpactedbydifferenttypesoffiresisestimatedtobesome3.5millionha,of
which3millionhaarelocatedintheforestfundand0.5millionhainthetundraarea.
Areasofstandreplacingforestfiresareestimatedtobeabout0.5millionha.
Pests,diseases,otherbioticfactors
A comprehensive and detailed inventory of these disturbances does not exist in
Russia.Basedonavailableinformation,thetotalaverageannualareasaffectedby
thesefactorsareestimatedtobeabout4millionha.
Figure1.

Abioticimpacts
Industrial pollution, landuse changes and unfavorable climatic conditions are the
mostimportantabioticimpacts.Completesurveysoftheextentandintensityofthese
processesdonotexist.Basedonregionaldataandexpertestimatestheareaaffected
bythesefactorsisestimatedtobe23millionhaperyear.

12

Harvests
Duringthe51yearperiodbetween1946and1996,therewasanaccumulatedharvest
(includingthinnings)ofsome16billionm3ofcommercialwood(industrialwood+
fuelwood)oranaverageharvestof313millionm 3peryearinRussia.Asignificant
declineintheharvestisobservedduringtheperiod19911996(seeFigure2).Data
onthenetgrowth(presentedabove)andtheannualharvestsallowustoestimatea
roughwoodbalanceforthelast51yearsinRussia. Ifweassumeanannualnet
growthof0.8billionm3year(wehavedecreasedtheoriginalestimateduetochanges
ofagestructuresovertime),wegetanaccumulatednetgrowthof41billionm 3forthe
studyperiod.Anaccumulatedharvestof16billionm3correspondstoabout20billion
m3ofgrowingstock.Duringtheperiod19611993,thegrowingstockdecreasedby
some3billionm3.Thismeansthatduringthelast50yearstheannuallossesdueto
largescaledisturbances(inadditiontoharvests)havebeenatleast0.5billionm3.

As previously stated, there are uncertainties with the estimations

presentedabove,whichareduetoshortcomingsintheRussianinventory
systemandinthemonitoringsystems.Inordertoprovidesufficientdata
for the implementation of sustainable forest management, a new
nationwideforestmonitoringsystemneedstobeestablishedinRussia.
This new system must encompass accurate measurements for
productivity, ecological functions of forests, the extent of largescale
disturbances,etc.TheRussianFederalForestServiceandvariousother
scientists(e.g.,Strakhov etal.,1995)haveidentifiedthisproblemand
have outlined a new monitoring system, which seems to be relevant,
althoughthepracticalimplementationofthesesuggestedapproachesare
too slow and inadequate in relation to the urgent need. A second
important area for action is to carry out decent disturbances impact
analyseswithrespecttoecology,economyandsocialfeatures.
Figure2.

13

14

3.2.Greenhousegasbalances
OneofthemostimportantglobalchangeaspectsoftheRussianforestecosystemsis
thegreenhousegasbalance.
3.2.1.Carbonbudget
Based on biomass and forest inventory data estimates presented above we have
estimated the dynamics of the carbon content in the forest ecosystem vegetation
during1961and1993(Table6)(Shvidenko,1997).

Table6.DynamicsofcarboncontentinRussianforestsin19611993.
Indicators

1961

1966

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

30.711
6.411
24.300

31.388
6.562
24.826

32.162
7.052
25.110

32.631
7.278
25.353

32.522
7.655
24.867

32.088
7.961
24.127

30.908
6.524
24.384
1.5

32.054
6.901
25.153
0.0

33.670
7.504
26.166
+3.2

34.074
8.070
26.004
+4.8

33.728
8.372
25.356
+5.1

Dynamicsbasedondataofofficialforeststatistics
Cinphytomass,Pg
CinEuropeanRussia
CinAsianRussia

30.933
6.147
24.786

Dynamicsbasedonreconstructedgrowingstock
Cinphytomass,Pg
CinEuropeanRussia
CinAsianRussia
Deviation(%)between
reconstructedandofficialC
storage

29.920
6.184
23.736
3.3

32.201
6.222
23.979
2.2

IfweemploythedatafromTable6togetherwiththeimpactofdisturbancesalready
presentedandaggregatedCfluxescalculatedfromdatafornetincrement,wecan
estimate the role of the Russian forests in the carbon cycle. During 19611993,
Russianforestswereanaveragenetsinkof150TgCperyear,althoughafter1988,
Russianforestswereneitheranetsinknorasourceofcarbon(withreconstructed
dynamics),butbecameanetsource(of54TgC/year)ifofficialstatisticsareused
(Shvidenko,1997). Uncertaintiesintheconclusionsareduetoshortcomingsinthe
StateForestAccountdata,buttheseuncertaintiescannotalterthedirectionofthe
resultspresented.
TheRussianforestsectorhassignificantpossibilitiestoincreasecarbonsequestration
duringthenextcenturythroughimprovedforestmanagement. Thesepossibilities
include reforestation of unforested areas, reforestation after disturbances,
reconstructionoflowstockedforests,etc. Whatwejudgeasrealisticscenariosfor
theseoptionsresultinanadditionalsinkofsome270TgC/yearduringthenext100
years(Shvidenkoetal.,1997).

15

Ina similar way,thecarbon budgetofthe Russian forests couldbe substantially

improvedthroughbetterforestprotection(e.g.,fromfires,insects,diseases,etc.).If
theprotectionmeasuresachieved,e.g.,inCanada,couldbeachievedinRussiathe
carbonsequestrationbyRussianforestswouldincreasebysome150170Tgperyear
(Shvidenkoetal.,1995).
3.2.2.Soilcarbon
Intheborealzone,alargeproportionofcarbonissequesteredbythesoil,some70
90%(KarjalainenandLiski,1997).Inaddition,asubstantialproportionofthesoil
carbonislocatedinpeatlands.
Dixon etal. (1994)estimatedthetotalcarbonsequesteredinthesoiloftheboreal
foreststobe471,000Tg.Wehaveproducednewsoilcarbonestimatesandanewsoil
carbonmapforRussia(Rozhkovetal.,1996).Theseestimatesindicateatotalpool
of453,367milliontonsofcarboninthe0100cmlayeroftheRussiansoils.From
thistotalcarbonpool25%isintheformofcarbonates,andsome75%isintheform
oforganiccarbon.Oftheorganiccarbon35%isaccumulatedinpeatandlitter.
ThisnewestimateonsoilcarbonstorageintheRussiansoilsindicatesthatthereis
muchmorethatestimatedearlier nearlythesameasthetotalestimatedforthe
borealzonebyDixonetal.,1994.
3.2.3.Methanefluxes
Methaneisinvolvedinmanychemicalreactionsconnectedwithatmosphericgases
andthusstronglyinfluencestheEarthsenergybalance.Amoleculeofmethaneis21
timesmoreradiativelyactivethanthatofcarbondioxide. Theglobalatmospheric
concentrationofmethanehasincreasedfromarelativelystablelevelof0.7ppmto1.7
ppm during the last 300 years. The total annual global flux of methane to the
atmosphere is estimated to be 357715 Tg. There is not only great uncertainty
surrounding methane fluxes, but also in the process of methane formation and
consumption.
WehavecarriedouttwostudiesonmethanefluxesfromRussianecosystemsandthe
fluxesareestimatedtobe2540Tgannually(Rozanov,1995;Zelenev,1996).The
NorthernSiberianlakesareestimatedtocontributetothemethanefluxesby1.5Tg
peryear(Zimovetal.,1997).Thiscorrespondstoatotalof310%oftheglobalnet
fluxes.
Sofar,Russiahasnotimplementedanythoroughpolicieswithrespecttomitigation
ofgreenhousegasesbytheforestsector,althoughthereareseveralgovernmental
agreementsmadetodoso.
3.3.Forestbiodiversity

16

Webelievetherearethreefundamentalwaysinwhichtoconserveforestbiodiversity:
(1) through protected areas; (2) biodiversitysensitive forest management where
timberisharvested;and(3)byefficientlandscapemanagement.
Inthispaperprotectedareasreferstothoseforestareaswheretimberharvestingis
not permitted. According to Klever et al. (1994), Russia has an outstanding
establishednetworkintheformofsocalledzapovedniks,orstrictlyprotectedareas.
Theseareasare,relativelyspeaking,largeandnumerous(77intotal),andareoften
surrounded by territory that is effectively wilderness. At present, the Russian
Federationhas87stateforestreserveswithatotalforestareaof16millionha,and25
nationalparkscovering4.5millionha.Inaddition,theRussianFederationhas52.5
millionhaofgameparks,theforestryorganizationsadminister11.5millionhaof
wildlife areas, and the forest territory has about 1million ha of socalled unique
naturalitems. Thetotalareaofspeciallyprotectedareasisabout5%ofthetotal
forestresourceareasinRussia(Sokolov,1997).Theseprotectedareasconservemore
thantwothirdsofrareandendangeredspecieslistedintheRussianRedDataBook
(Klever etal., 1994). Russiasconservationofforestbiodiversityusingprotected
areasseems(atleastonpaper)andrelativetowhatothercountrieshaveachieved
andcandoratheradvanced(Kleveretal.,1994).However,theeconomicdecline
duringthetransitionhasseriouslydeterioratedmanagementcapacitiesofprotected
areas.
Biodiversityconservingeffortsofprotectedareasarefundamentallyimportant(Noss,
1990;1995),butafullprogramofforestbiodiversityconservationmustalsodeal
substantially withallforestssubjectedtotimberharvestingandothermanipulation.
Examplesofbiodiversityconservingtreatmentsareleavingmatureanddeadtreesat
harvesting,regenerationwithmixedspecies,andrefrainingfromclearcuttinginall
agedstandsofshadetolerantspecies.
Biologicaldiversitymeansthevariabilityamonglivingorganismsfromallsources
including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the
ecologicalcomplexesofwhichtheyarepart;thisincludesdiversitywithinspecies,
betweenspeciesandofecosystems(Glowkaetal.,1994).Tomakebiodiversityan
operational concept a relevant unit for biodiversity indicators and operational
managementneedstobeselected. Noss(1990)placedtheforestlandscapeatthe
highestelementonhishierarchyofecosystemlevels. Wefeelthatlandscapeisa
relevantunitforunderstandingthebiodiversityconcept.Therefore,wealsoinclude
conservationofforestbiodiversityinthelandscapeconcept.
Russia has a long tradition of working with different levels of landscapes, and,
because of this, has an excellent platform for real biodiversity management (see
Appendix:Rozhkovetal.,1996).Biodiversitycanbedealtwithintheformofthe
establishednetworkofzapovedniks,otherprotectedareas,andthelandscapeconcept.
However, Russia has not taken any steps to conserving biodiversity through
biodiversityconservingforestmanagement.

17

Over 600 vascular plants are considered rare, threatened or endangered (USSR
AcademyofSciences,1984). Fivepercentofthesearetreesandbusheswiththe
remainderbeinggrassspecies(Venevskaia,1996). Therearesome50endangered
animals habitating in forest ecosystems in Russia (USSR Academy of Sciences,
1985).
Approximately40%ofallmedicinesusedinRussiaarefromplantorigin.Some140
plantspeciesareusedformedicinalpurposes.
Wehavecarriedoutfirstcutquantitativeanalysesoftheforestbiodiversityforthe
Russianborealforests(Duinkeretal.,1996).Fromtheseanalysesthefollowingcan
beconcluded:
Threatstothebiodiversityarehighfromtimberandotherlandexploitation.
In largescale uniform landscapes careful forest management can also increase
biodiversity.
Firesuppressionmaydecreasebiodiversity.
More protected areas and a more efficient distribution of protected areas are
requiredtomaintainbiodiversitypointofview.
The biodiversity is directly scaledependent and future policies on biodiversity
havetotakeintoaccounttheinteractionbetweendifferentscalesofecosystems.
Russianeedstocarryoutacompletenationwidemappingofthebiodiversityissuesin
itsforests. Basedonthismappingandsubsequentanalyses,abiodiversitypolicy,
integratingconservation(protection)andmanagementoftheforestecosystemsand
landscapesshouldbeestablished.
3.4.Hydrology

18

OneofthemostimportantecologicalrolesoftheRussianforestsistheir
interaction with the hydrological regimes of landscapes. The
hydrologicalregimestronglyimpactstheforestsabilitytofulfilltheir
biosphericfunctions(carbonandnitrogenbudgetsofforests),toproduce,
toregenerate,tobalancenaturaldisturbances,andtocontrolwaterquality
ofriversandlakes.CalculationsonthehydrologicalbalanceforRussian
ecological regions (Youchnovskii et al., 1996) show that
evapotranspirationintheRussianborealzoneconstitutesfrom2530%
(in tundra and forest tundra) to 65% (in forest steppe) of the total
precipitation. The runoff is 65% and 35%, respectively, in the two
mentionedexamples. FromanaverageprecipitationforSiberiaof532
mmperyear,theevapotranspirationwasestimatedtobe286mm(53.8%)
andtherunoff246mm(46.2%).

3.5.PollutionstressonRussianforests
There are many reports (both Russian and international) documenting the
environmentalproblemsinRussiaandhowtheseinfluencethedevelopmentofthe
Russian forests (Gusewelle, 1992; Knight, 1992; Stanglin, 1992; Tracy, 1994;
European Parliament, 1995; Feshbach, 1995; Goskompriroda of the Russian
Federation,1995,1996;NewellandWilson,1996).Wehavetriedtoquantifyhow
seriousthethreatsofairpollutantsandradionuclidecontaminationareonRussian
forests.
WithintheConventiononLongrangeTransboundaryAirPollutionProgram,Russia
hascarriedoutsinglecriticalloadestimatesandexceedancesofcriticalloadsfor
EuropeanRussiawithrespecttosulfurandnitrogen(Downingetal.,1993;Poschet
al., 1993). From these analyses, it can be concluded that in the taiga forests of
European Russia the critical loads are seldom exceeded at existing levels of
atmosphericdepositions,althoughtheregionhasalowbuffingcapacity.Potentially
dangerouseffectswereidentifiedforeutrophication.Hettelingetal.(1995)confirm,
based on analyses of combination impacts of sulfur and nitrogen, the findings
identifiedearlierwithrespecttoexceedanceofthecriticalloads.Wehaveoverlayed
thesefindingswithourIIASAForestStudydatabase(Blauberg,1996)withrespectto
theforestresources(Table7).WehavealsocarriedoutsimilaranalysesforSiberia
basedonthesameconcept(Kharuk etal.,1996;Nilssonetal.,1997).Theforested
areaandgrowingstockatriskfromsulfurandnitrogendepositionsinRussiaare
presentedinTable7.
Table7.Forestareaandgrowingstockatriskfromsulfurandnitrogendepositionsin
Russia.
ForestedArea
(inmillionha)

GrowingStock
(inbillionm3)

19

Sulfur
EuropeanRussia
AsianRussia
Total
Nitrogen
EuropeanRussia
AsianRussia
Total

21.5
210
231.5

2.8
24.5
27.3

1
87
88

0.2
11.4
11.6

Inthecalculationsontheexceedanceofcriticalloadstherearesome230millionha
offorestedareasatriskfromsulfurdepositions,whichis30%ofthetotalforested
area(anareawhichislargerthanthetotalexploitableforestsoftheUSA[196million
ha]).Thecorrespondingfiguresforthegrowingstockatriskfromsulfurdepositions
are27.3billionm3,~35%ofthetotalFA.Theareasandgrowingstockatriskfrom
nitrogendepositionsaresubstantiallylower.ItcanalsobeconcludedfromTable7
thattheproblemofsulfurandnitrogendepositionsisgreatestinAsianRussia.This
mayseemsurprisingbutcanbeexplainedbytheecosystemshighersensitivityin
AsianRussia.IntheAsianpartthereareanumberofseriouslydamagedregions(by
airpollutants),suchasNorilsk(Kharuketal.,1996).
Withrespecttoheavymetals,itcanbeconcludedthatRussiasdepositionsarebelow
criticalloadsforforestssetbyRussianexperts(Nilsson etal.,1997),exceptinthe
vicinityofemittersofheavymetals.Hence,wecurrentlyestimatethatheavymetal
pollution does not seem to be an overwhelming problem for the Russian forests.
However,furtherdevelopmentofthecriticalloadsforheavymetalsisnecessary.It
shouldalsobepointedoutthattherearemanyotherpollutantsemittedinRussia
(Blauberg,1996),whoseimpactshavenotyetbeenanalyzed.
OfficialdataonradionuclidecontaminationinRussiaderivefromdifferentsources
andhavedifferentdegreesofreliability.Theradioactiveconditionsaredetermined
by the following: global radioactive background; natural radioactivity; radioactive
outbreaks and underground nuclear explosions; and nuclear industry and nuclear
waste storage. We have examined all available information (to the best of our
knowledge)withrespecttocontaminatedforestsinRussia. Wemakereferenceto
Kharuketal.(1996)forfurtherinformation.Theinformationavailableissparse,but
basedonourinvestigationswecanonlyconcludethatthereareseriousriskstohuman
beingsfromcontamination,althoughthereseemtobelimitedcontaminatedforested
areasandforestecosystemsatriskfromnuclearradiation(atleastintheAsianpart,
Kharuketal.,1996).Intermsofradioactivecontamination,problemsatthenuclear
complex in Mayak (Southern Ural) are probably the most serious in Russia. A
numberofaccidents inthisfacilitycausedacontaminatedareaof0.7millionha
affectingsome270,000people. Therearenosatisfactoryestimatesonthepossible
impactsontheecosystemsforthisarea(Segerstahletal.,1997).

20

However, the current nuclear waste storage is a high potential risk for future
radioactiveaccumulationsintheRussianforestecosystems.Thishighriskcondition
requiresfurtherinvestigation.
Russia needs to establish an efficient nationwide system for monitoring pollutant
depositions (air and water pollutants and radionuclide depositions). In parallel,
criticalloads fordifferentpollutants invarious ecosystems havetobedeveloped.
Onlythencanaproperassessmentoftheecosystemsatriskbypollutiontakeplace.

4.EconomicSignificance
4.1.Pricesandcosts
SeveralkeyfactorswillimpactthefuturestructureoftheRussianforestsector.First
andforemostarethelevelsofpricesandcosts;throughtheirlargeuncertaintyvalues
theyprecludeadirectconsiderationinquantitativeanalyses.Thislargeuncertainty
concerningthecurrentlevels,thedegreetowhichtheyrepresentscarcities,andthe
extenttowhichbuyersandsellershaveaccurateinformationtobasetheirdecisions
reducetheutilityoffinanciallybasedpolicytools. Anindicationoftheeffectof
pricesandcostsonfutureprospectsoftheRussianforestsectorcanbeachievedbya
modelstructuredevelopedbyBackman(1993;1997).
4.2.Markets

Domestic demand on forest products decreased dramatically between

1990and1995.Consumptionofforestproductsin1995wasonlysome
30%ofthatin1990.Thedomesticproducersarenowalsofacingstrong
competitionwithimportedhighqualityforestproducts(Burdin,1997).
ThefuturedemandforforestproductsinRussiaandtheformerrepublicsoftheUSSR
ishighlydependentonthelikelytrendsineconomicactivity.Basedontheanalyses
carried out by Backman (1997) the most plausible scenario seems to be that the
domesticdemandinRussiawillstarttopickupduringthenextfiveyears(Table8).
Thus,thedomesticdemandonforestproductsisestimatedtohaveastrongincrease
inthemidtermfuture. Some(e.g.,Komiev,1997)estimatethatRussianpulpand
papermillswillonlybeabletosupplyafractionofthepaperproductsneededbya
recoveringeconomyandthatsoonRussiawillbeastrongnetimporterofpulpand
paperproducts.
Table 8. Average domestic annual demand for selected forest products. After
Backman,1997.

21

Russia
Lumber(millionm3)
Panels(millionm3)
Pulp(milliontons)
Paper+board(milliontons)

1989
63.5
8.1
8.3
6.6

19941998 20042008 20242028 20392043

30.0
58.5
116.2
117.1
5.4
10.5
39.5
48.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
3.2
5.9
20.8
37.9

Italsoseemsplausiblethattherewillbeastrongincreaseindemandovertimefor
lumberandpanelsinKazakhstanandotherCentralAsianrepublics.Fortheseareas,
paperconsumptionmayreach1.4milliontonsbytheyear2040.IntheEuropeanpart
oftheformerUSSRrepublics(Baltics,Transcaucasus,andSouthwest)theremaybea
substantial increase in the demand for panels, but it seems that the lumber
consumptionwillnotreachthe1989levelbytheyear2040. Thepaperandboard
consumptionmayreach11milliontonsinthesametimeframe(forfurtherdetailson
demandseeBackman,1997).
Althoughdomesticdemandsupportsalmosttwothirdsofthefibresupplyproducedin
Russiaandupto7580%oftheoutputofdifferentmanufacturedproducts,export
marketscanbeexpectedtoplayanincreasingroleinrefinancingthesector.
Eastern Russian enterprises (the Far East) will concentrate on the markets in the
PacificRimincludingJapanandSouthKorea.AlthoughmarketsinChinacollapsed
intheearly1990s,recenteventssuggestthattradelevelsinforestproductswillrise
veryquickly,asbothRussianandChinesegovernmentsstrivetoincreasebilateral
tradebetweenthetwocountries.CentralAsiaandKazakhstanrepublicswillprovide
agrowingmarketfortheforestsectorslocatedinEastandWestSiberia.
TheEuropeanrepublicsoftheformerUSSRandtheBalticregionarepresentlyina
surplus situation, visvis fiber supply, and can support a forest sector based on
export.Asuccessfuleconomicrecoveryintheseregionswillleadtofibershortages
even to meet domestic demand within two decades. A forest sector located in
European Russia would be well positioned to have these two regions as market
opportunitiesinadditiontothetraditionalEuropeanmarket.
The additional export potential in the year 2020 for some export markets is
summarizedinTable9.Thistableshowsthatahugeexportpotentialisforecastedfor
Russia.ThecurrentexportofRussianforestproductscorrespondstoabout30million
m3(roundwoodequivalents)(Burdin,1997).Itmeansatotalfutureexportpotentialof
some7585millionm3peryear.
Table9.Estimatesonadditionalexportpotentialsaroundtheyear2020(expressedin
millionm3roundwoodequivalents).AfterKakizawa,1994;Tak,1994aandb,1996;
Backman,1996b;Waggeneretal.,1996.

Balticrepublics

Export
potential
3.0

22

Transcaucasus
FormerSouthwesternUSSR
CentralAsia
Kazakhstan
China
Japan
SouthKorea
Total

2.5
16.0
4.0
3.0
510
710
35
43.553.5

Tradesupportedalmost30%oftheforestsectoractivityin1989. Thisfigurewas
already below 25% by 1992 at the same time the Russian total production had
decreasedsubstantially.
Russianindustryfacessignificantbarrierstoexportmarkets.Thisislinkedtotheir
inability to supply consistent qualitymanufactured products. The Russian forest
sectorneedstoaddcapitalandmanagementinordertosecureanincreasingmarket
shareinthemoredeeplymanufacturedforestproductsmarkets.
4.3.Woodsupply
Asillustratedabove,theRussianforestscanbecreditedwithanannualnetgrowthof
nearlyonebillionm3.However,muchofthispotentialisnotrealizedbytheforest
industryduetoenvironmentalconstraints,lowstandingvolumestands,forestsremote
fromdomesticandinternationalmarkets,theabsenceofatransportationnetworkand
technologicallimitations.
Theannualallowablecut(AAC)setbytheFederalForestServiceandbasedona
sustainablebiologicalsupplyisillustratedinTable10.

23

Table10.Annualallowablecutfortheperiod19651995inRussia(inmillionm3).
AfterPisarenkoandStrakhov(1995)andKukuev(1997).
1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1993

1996

603.9

605.6

620.4

619.0

617.2

603.0

529.0

511.7

388.1

398.1

395.5

390.1

381.9

315.0

305.4

Total
AAC

Coniferous
AAC

402.1

The AACs only consider final felling and commercial wood (industrial wood +
fuelwood)onforestsunderstateforestmanagement. TheAACissetbasedonthe
status of the forest inventory, forest regulation and silvicultural handbooks. As
discussedabove,thereisaveryhighnaturalmortalityrateofRussianforests(nearly
50%). Thus, there are balancing problems concerning the liquidation rate of
overmature forests. As illustrated by Nilsson et al. (1992), many sustainable
liquidationprofilesexist.Nilsson etal. (1992)showthatonepossibility,basedon
modern silviculture handbooks, would be to increase the harvest level rather
dramaticallyduringthenext50yearsinsomeregionsofRussia(increasethecurrent
AAC 23 times) in order to balance the forest structure and decrease the natural
mortality.Anadditionalreasontofollowarapidliquidationpathisthehighrateof
lossesinthecurrentharvestduetorottenwood.TheWorldBank(1997)estimates
thatthelossincurrentharvestsduetorottenanddeadwoodis34%ofthegross
harvest.
Therearealsosubstantiallossesofwoodintheprocessfromstumptofinalproduct.
Nilssonetal.(1992)estimatetheselossestobeonaverage20%ofthegrossharvest.
TheharvestsinrecentyearsarepresentedinTable11.
Table 11. Harvest in Russia and estimated unaccounted harvest (in million m 3).
AfterBackman(1997)andBurdin(1997).
1989
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Goskomstat
338
238
175
119
115
94
a)
Unaccounted
101
87
76
56
50
36
Total
439
325
251
175
165
130
a)
Harvestlinkedtotheforestsnotpartofthejurisdictionofforestagenciesbasedon
anestimatebyBackman(1995b).
Fromthisitcanbeconcludedthattheharvesthasbeensubstantiallylowerthanthat
whichwasestimatedforasustainableharvestlevel.
Sheingauz etal. (1996)claimthataccordingtovariousevaluations,inrealitywood
productionis1.52timeshigherthancurrentofficialdataduetotheshadoweconomy,

24

intentionalunderestimatesoftheproductionratesinordertoevadetaxes,andthe
lossbystatisticalagencies(allsmallandpartofmediumsizedbusinesses).
Atpresent,leaseholders(mainlyformerstateownedloggingcompanies)haveattheir
disposalforesttractswithanallowablecutof85millionm 3 peryear. Inaddition,
stumpage auctions have been introduced and constituted 1.7 million m3 in 1996.
Earlierstumpagerevenuescoveredallforestrycosts,butin1996forestryrevenues
onlyamountedto30%ofthecostsofforestry(Giryaev,1997).

AtIIASAwehavetriedtovalidateRussianAACcalculationsbyusingdetailedanddynamicmodels.AcomparisonbetweencurrentAACsin
RussiaandthesemodelanalysesispresentedinTable12.TheIIASAanalysesincludethinnings,whicharenotincludedintheRussianAAC.
Asseenfromthecomparison,theIIASAstudiesindicatesome100millionm 3lowerAAC(evenifthethinningsareincluded)thantheTable
12.ComparisonbetweencurrentRussianAACsandmodelanalysesatIIASA(expressedinmillionm3).
EuropeanRussia
Coniferous Deciduous Total
RussianAAC(Kukuev,1997)
Commercialwood(industrial+
fuelwood only) from final
harvesting
Industrial wood from final
harvesting
IIASA(Nilssonetal.,1992)
Sustainable

accessible
commercial wood from final
harvest+thinnings
Industrialwood
IIASA(inpress)
Sustainable

accessible
commercial wood from final
harvesting+thinnings
Industrialwood
IIASA,Total
Sustainable

accessible
commercial wood from final
harvest+thinnings
Industrialwood

AsianRussia
Coniferous Deciduous

Total

TotalRussia
Coniferous Deciduous

Total

93.7

89.4

186.6

211.7

109.7

325.1

305.4

199.1

511.7

75.5

55.6

132.8

109.3

59.6

218.9

234.8

115.2

351.7

118

76

194.0

94.5

47

141.5

142.5

65.0

207.5

138.5

35.0

173.5

260.5

141.0

401.5

233.0

82.0

315.0

RussianAAC.Thiscanbeexplainedbythefactthatmoreenvironmentalconcerns
areconsideredandmorelongtermdynamicanalysesarecarriedoutintheIIASA
studies. However,thiscomparisondoesnottakeintoaccountabalancingofthe
foreststructurebyincreasedliquidationofovermatureforestsintheEuropeanNorth,
theUralsandinthemajorityoftheAsianregions(Nilssonetal.,1992).Withthis
latterapproach,theAACintheseregionscouldbeincreasedbyasmuchastwotimes
foralongerperiod.
An estimate of economic accessibility is full of uncertainty given the fluctuating
exchange rate, inflationary tendencies, and fluctuating price and cost matrix
characteristic of Russia at the present time. Harvesting levels today are not
representativeofthelevelspossiblewhenthedomesticpriceandcostmatrixachieve
some stability with the international level and choices among suppliers and
demandersbecomesmorewidespread.Inspiteoftheseuncertainties,wehavecarried
outanumberofmodelanalysesonthefutureeconomicsupply(Backman,1995;
1996a;1997;BackmanandBlam,1997).
These analyses indicate that with the current infrastructure, the economic harvest
levelscouldamounttosome230millionm 3(includingfirewoodandharvestlosses)
in the short andmedium term. Butwith a 10% increase in the relative price for
roundwoodtheharvestlevelwouldincreaseto310millionm 3intheshorttomedium
term.Inthemediumterm,underthesameeconomicconditions,andalsoincluding
technological or infrastructural development, the economic harvest levels could
increase to 325 million m3. With the additional technological and infrastructural
developmentanda10%increaseintherelativepriceforroundwood,theharvest
level,undertheseconditions,mayincreaseby400450millionm 3inthemediumto
longterm,whichcanbecomparedwiththecurrentAACofsome510millionm 3.
Thus, wehave a range of230450 million m3 in the estimated economic harvest
levels,dependingontheeconomicdevelopments.Thedeciduousharvestconstitutes
3335%ofthetotalharvest.Theseanalysesdonotassumeanydrasticchangesinthe
liquidationprofile(discussedabove)ofovermatureforests,butasmoothharvesting
patternovertime.
Itshouldbepointedoutthatwearenotarguingfortheliquidationofallovermature
forests.Overmatureforestsare80%unevenagedforests,and,assuch,theyareoneof
thecrucialcomponentsofasustainablelandscape.
Russia needs to introduce modern dynamic wood supply analysis that takes into
accountecological,economic,andsocialconstraintsandtomakeastrategicchoiceon
the future liquidation profile. These analyses should be the platform for setting
officialAACsinRussiainthefuture.
4.4.Forestmanagement
Theforestmanagementusedwillinfluencetheeconomicharvestlevelofovermature
forests similarly to selected liquidation profiles in the long term. The forest

managementregimesemployedwillalsoinfluenceenvironmentalvaluesoftheforest
resource.
ThemostintensivelyutilizedforestsareinEuropeanRussia.In1992and1993there
was,onaverage,4.15.2haoffinalfelledareasper1000haofforestedareas.Inthe
Asianpart,thecorrespondingfigureswere0.91.2ha.Since1988,therehasbeena
reductionofthefinal fellingareas inRussia, from2.1million hain1988to 1.1
millionhain1993.Between1988and1993,clearfellingwascarriedoutinatotal
areaof8.8millionha. Ofthisharvestedarea,artificialregenerationtookplacein
2.65millionha(or30%),andnaturalregenerationin4.55millionha(52%).Ofthe
remainingharvestedarea(18%)noregenerationwascarriedout.
During1966and1989artificialregenerationwascarriedouton33.2%ofthefinal
harvested areas and 52% was naturally regenerated, and on 18% there was no
regeneration. In1993,theunforestedareashadreached68.4millionhaand16.5
millionharequiredartificialreforestation. Thetotalplantedareaofforestsunder
stateforestmanagementinRussiain1993was17.3millionha.
Russiaappliesanindexgeneratedasquotasoftheareaofconiferousforestsinthe
first ageclass (youngforests)dividedbythe areaoffinalharvest ofmatureand
overmature coniferous forests. A relation larger than 1 indicates a positive
reproductionofconiferousforestsandavaluelessthan1indicatesadecreaseofthe
coniferousresources(Table13).
Table13. Indexfortherelationbetweenareaofyoungconiferousforests(firstage
class)andareasoffinalharvestedmatureandovermatureconiferousforestsinRussia
overtime.AfterStrakhovandPisarenko(1995).
Year
19661973
19771978
19791983
19841988
19891993

Index
2.2
1.3
0.17
0.03
0.03

AsseenfromTable13therehasbeenastrongdeclineintheindexovertime.This
concludesthatduringthelast20yearsthenewareasofsatisfactorilystockedyoung
coniferousforests(firstageclass)farfromcompensateconiferousareastakenoutof
productionbyfinalharvest.
Inordertoestablishhealthyandproductiveforests,thequalitativestructureofthe
forestshastobeimprovedthroughintensifiedthinnings. Thethinningrateisvery
lowinRussiaandhasdecreasedovertime(Table14).

Table14.ThinningandsanitaryfellingsofcommercialwoodinRussia(expressedin
millionhaandmillionharvestedm3).
Year
1980
1985
1990
1993
1994
1995
1996

Europeanpart
Area
Volume
1.99
19.9
1.96
20.3
1.93
20.8
n.a.
15.3
n.a.
13.9
n.a.
15.2
n.a.
14.6

Asianpart
Area
Volume
0.43
5.7
0.48
6.1
0.48
6.7
n.a.
4.6
n.a.
3.8
n.a.
4.2
n.a.
4.7

TotalRussia
Area
Volume
2.42
25.6
2.44
26.4
2.41
27.5
n.a.
19.9
n.a.
17.7
n.a.
19.4
n.a.
19.3

BasedontheinformationinTables11and14itcanbeconcludedthatthethinning
rateisonly79%ofthetotalharvest.
Precommercialthinningshavedecreasedfrom1.1millionhain1990to0.9millionha
in1993(PisarenkoandStrakhov,1996).Thisdecreaseddevelopmentinthethinning
volumewillinfluencetheavailabilityofqualitytimberresourcesinRussiainthelong
term.
AllsignsindicatetheneedforintensifiedforestmanagementinRussia,butinreality
theintensityiscurrentlydecreasing,fromanalreadylowlevelofintensity(Nilsson,
1995).
New official forest management manuals need to be developed based on new
economicrealitiesandtheregionalspecificsinordertodismisspreviouscentralized
managementrules.
4.5.Transportation
Thetransportationnetworkinfluencesaregionsabilitytoaccessforestresourcesand
torealizepotentialindustrialandsocioeconomicdevelopment.However,itmayalso
negativelyinfluencetheecologicalfunctionsoftheRussianforestecosystems.
Thedensityofthetransportationnetwork(allroadandrailway,butnotwaterway
transportation)varies between1.05m/ha(EuropeanNorth)and6.5m/ha(Central
Chermozyomny)inEuropeanRussia(Nilssonetal.,1992).IntheFarEastandEast
Siberia,thedensityis0.2and0.5m/ha,respectively,andinWestSiberia0.8m/ha
(Nilssonetal.,1994).Manyoftheroutesareexclusivelywinterroadsandarerarely
usedduringthesummer.Themajorityofroadslackhardsurfacesandaregenerally
inpoorconditionduetoneglect. Onlyafractionofroadsbuiltduringthelast50
yearsareinoperationtoday.
Russiahasthelargestinlandwaterwaytransportationsystemintheworld,estimated
byBlahaandKahn(1991)tobe146,000km.InEuropeanRussiaespeciallythereisa
uniqueandefficientsystemofchannels.

Railwayshipmentsencounterhugeproblems.Theseproblemsarecausedbyalackof
capitalinvestment,agingrollingstock,ahugeshortageoffreightcars(~1million),
outofdatelocomotives,andsubstandardrailroadtracks.
Theinfrastructureforloadingandunloadinginthetransportationnetworkisfarfrom
sufficient.
Pricesinthetransportationsectorfollowedageneraltrendintheeconomyupuntil
1993,afterwhichtheybegantoescalatemorerapidly.By1994priceswerealmost
twicethoseintheeconomyasawhole.By1994,pricesinthetransportationsector
hadrisenmorethantwiceasfastasthoseintheforestsector.Thisdevelopmentis
illustrated for railway transportation tariffs in Table 15 (after Backman, 1997).
During the period 19901997,railway tariffs increased by a factor of20,917 and
forestproductspricesincreasedbyafactorof4732.Thegrowthrateforfueland
electricity prices exceeded growth prices for forest products by a factor of three.
Russiancustomersarecurrentlyunabletobuywoodorforestproductsthathavebeen
transportedbyrail(Burdin,1997).
TherearethreemajorroutesoutofRussiaforwaterwayexportsofforestproducts,
namelytheBaltic andWhite Seas,thePacific Ocean,andthe Black Sea.Export
volumesofforestproductsarepresentedinTable16.

Table15.TransportationtariffsontheRussianrailwaysystem(KrasnoyarskNakhodka:5350km).
1991
1.00
0.63

1992
53.00
202

1993
856.00
963

1061

56,233

908,216

9.973

50,610

172,094 1,903,434 5,021,713 13,990,240

1000

53,000

856,000

9400

47,700

162,200 1,794,000 4,733,000 13,185,900

21
18

1125
946

18,164
15,286

199
168

1012
852

3442
2896

28,069
32,036

100,434
84,518

279,805
235,463

1698
1600

278
262

943
889

46
44

402
379

413
389

1526
1439

2621
2470

3164
2982

Cost(US$)perm3roundwood(63toncar)
33.95
5.57
18.86
0.93
8.03
8.25
30.53
3
Cost(US$)perm plywood(48toncar)
28.57
4.69
15.87
0.78
6.76
6.95
25.69
Sources:DerivedfromGoskomtsen(1989);Zausaev(1993,1994d);Stanick(1994);SLR(1995);andWorldBank(1995).

52.42
44.11

63.28
53.25

Priceindex(1991=1.00)
Exchangerate(rublesperUS$)
Cost(ruble)perrailwaywagon
(capacity63tons)
Cost(ruble)perrailwaywagon
(capacity48tons)
Cost(ruble)perm3roundwood(63toncar)
Cost(ruble)perm3plywood(48toncar)
Railwaywagon(capacity63tons)
Railwaywagon(capacity48tons)

2Jan92 12Jun92
9.40
47.70
215
126

1Jan93
162.20
417

1Jan94 15Jun94
1794.00 4733.00
1247
1916

1Sep95
13185.90
4422

32

Table16. ExportvolumesofforestproductsandtraderoutesinRussia.Afterthe
WorldBank(1997).

Traderoutes
BalticandWhiteSeas
PacificOcean
BlackSea
Total

Exportvolumes(inmilliontons)
Before1991
1995
7.5
3.9
7.1
6.5
2.0
2.2
16.6
12.6

Thus,thereisnotonlyanobsoleteandinsufficienttransportationnetworkinRussia,
butalsoaninefficientpricesettinginthetransportationsector.Itcanbestatedthat
thetransportationsectorhasmovedfromanunderpricedandsubsidizedmonopolyto
anoverpricedmonopolymarket. Thisdevelopmentgreatlyhindersdevelopmentof
theforestsector.
Russia needs to invest a substantial amount to upgrade the transportation
infrastructure,andalsotoactivelyintroduceafullymarketorientedpricesettingin
thetransportationsector.
4.6.Forestindustry
Before the collapse of the USSR (1989), some 70% of lumber output and three
quarters of pulp output, and nearly 90% of the panel, paper and paperboard
productiontookplaceinthewesternpartofRussia(Europeanpart+WestSiberia).
EastSiberiaandtheFarEasthadtheremainingpartoftheproductionandhencea
rathermarginalroleintotalproduction.
Bythemid1990s,lumberproductionhaddeclinedtosome40%inWestRussiaand
to25%inEastRussia,incomparisontothe1989levels.Pulpproductionhadfallen
to3540%ofthe1989levelsinbothWestRussiaandEastRussia.Thepaperand
paperboardproductionhaddeclinedto40%ofthe1989levelsinWestRussiaandto
2530%ofthesamelevelsinEastRussia.
Anotherwaytoapproachindustrialproductionchangesistostudycapacityutilization
intheindustry.TheWorldBank(1997)presentsestimatesoncapacityutilizationfor
1994.TheseestimatesareshowninTable17.

33

Table17.CapacityutilizationintheRussianforestindustryin1994.AftertheWorld
Bank(1997).
Capacity

Harvesting
Lumber
Panels
Pulp
Paper
Paperboard
(inmillionm3) (inmillionm3) (inmillionm3) (inmilliontons) (inmilliontons) (inmilliontons)
205.7
56.3
8.35
8.66
6.01
3.40
184.0
52.5
8.49
8.78
6.17
3.40

1Jan.1994
1Jan.1995
Capacity
utilizationin 58
%1Jan.1994

55

45

39

40

36

Fromthetable,thefastestdeteriorationofcapacitiesoccursinharvesting.Withinone
yeartheharvestingcapacitydeclinedbymorethan10%.Thisisbecausetheexisting
harvesting capacity is obsolete and there is no capital to replace the rundown
equipment.Thecapacityutilizationintheindustryisbetween35and55%.Thereare
limitedpossibilitiestoturntheeconomyinapositivedirectionwiththesekindsof
utilizationrates.
Hence,therehasbeenadramaticdeclineintheforestindustrialproductionduringthe
last56years,whichhashadseriouseconomicandsocialimplications. Totheir
critics,thesemimonopoliesandmonopoliesintheindustryseemtohavelearnedthe
bestwaytosurviveduringthetransition(Rutland,1997).Huberetal.(1996)point
out that concentration on the forest industry has become even bigger during the
transition.
The reasons for decline are collapsed markets, both domestic and some of the
traditionalexportmarkets(theBalticrepublics,formerCOMECONcountries,and
CentralAsianrepublics),butalsoduetoalackofwoodrawmaterial(toalargeextent
dependingontheincreasedtransportationcosts),andoutdatedindustry.
In1992,Simons(1992)carriedoutareviewoftheRussianforestindustry(individual
mills)anditwasconcludedthattheemploymentrateismuchhigherinRussianmills
incomparisontoWesternmills. TheRussianmills havedifficulties inobtaining
skilledworkforce;theproductionqualityofforestindustryproductsis,inmostcases,
notsufficienttomeetexistingconsumerdemand;comparedtotheWest,Russian
forestindustryisnotveryadvancedinmatterspertainingtoenvironmentalprotection;
andsince1975theRussianforestindustryhasseenminimalcapitalexpenditureand
norealgreenfieldconstruction,whichmeansthatthestateoftheindustryitselfis
suchthatmostmillsareneitherofworldclasssizenorsophistication.Akim(1997)
pointsoutthatduetotheheritagefromtheformerUSSR,therearegreatecological
problemsinRussianpulpandpapermills.TheWorldBank(1997)pointsoutthatthe
Russianforestindustrymustovercomeseriouscomparativedisadvantagesitfacesin
respect to high transportation costs, rapid deterioration in technology, inability to
produceproductsthatmeetinternationalstandards,andalackofcapital,stemming
from an underdeveloped domestic credit network and unprofitable enterprises.
Burdin and Ryzhenkov (1997) stress that there has been a dramatic increase in
insolvencyintheforestindustryandseriousdeteriorationofthesocialinfrastructure

34

and living standards in forest towns during the transition, which hampers the
developmentoftheforestindustry.
ThefutureoftheRussianforestindustrywillbebasedonthreemajoroverriding
factors(BackmanandBlam,1997).
First,theextenttowhichdomesticdemandreboundswilldependontheexpected
introductionoflinksamongthedifferentcomponentsoftheoveralleconomythatwill
provideabasisforthefutureconsumptionlevel.Amiddlegrowthscenarioassumesa
growthrateinconsumptionof2.5%peryear.
Second,fibreavailabilitytosupportdomesticmanufacturersandconsumptionand
possibleexportiscrucialinordertoproviderawmaterialforprocessing.Thefibre
basecanbeexpandedinthefollowingways.Withrisingrelativepricesforforest
products,theeconomicaccessibilityofcurrentaccessibleresourcescanbeexpanded.
Additionaltechnologytoutilizelowerqualitywoodorinferiorspecies,andtoenable
moreefficientwoodutilization,canbemade.Therearesuitableresourcesavailable
farfromtheexistingtransportationinfrastructure,whichcouldbemadeaccessible
throughinvestmentsintheinfrastructure.Secondaryfiberaschipsfromsawmillsand
wastepapercouldbeusedinanefficientway. Finally,asoundmarketmechanism
couldbeestablishedforthepricesettingintransportation.
Third,capitalmustbeattachedtotheforestsectortoreplenishexistingcapitalstock
andaddtothemanufacturingcapacitytomeetreboundingdomesticdemandandsize
exportopportunities.Thecapitalrequirementsoftheforestsectorareenormous,not
onlytoreplenishexistingcapitalstructure,buttoaddcapacitytomeetfuturedemand
opportunities.Evenmeetingthedemandsbroughtonbyamediumgrowthscenario
fortheincreaseinGDPrequiresenormousquantitiesofcapitalamountingtosome
$30billioninthefirst5yearperiodandbetween$15and60billionineachofthe
followingfour5yearperiods.Withanaggressiveinvestmentstrategytheinvestment
needs are more than $100 billion per 5year period (Backman and Blam, 1997).
Wherethiscapitalwillcomefromisthemajorquestion.
Thus,theRussianforestindustryneedstoimproveproductqualitytomeetdifferent
customerdemands,improveproductivityandcapacityutilization,andsecurerequired
fibresupply.Theindustryalsoneedstobecomestronglymarketorientedtoattract
muchneededlargevolumesofinvestmentcapitalrequiredtoreplenishandupgrade
industrial capacities. This is a challenge for both the industry and the Russian
governmentinanenvironmentwithaninsufficientfinancialinfrastructure.Inmany
regionsinRussia,stablefinancialinstitutesoccupylessthan30%ofthefinancial
market(Shadrin,1997).

4.7.Nonwoodproducts

35

Therearemanyproductsotherthanwoodcomingfromtheforests,whichareof
substantialeconomicimportancefortheRussiansociety.AccordingtotheRussian
forestlegislation,harvestingofgumorresin,stumps,bark,twigs,hay,treesaps,wild
fruits,mushrooms,berries,etc.areallowed.
ThefollowingdescriptionofnonwoodproductspotentialisbasedonPisarenkoand
Strakhov(1996)andStrakhovandPisarenko(1996).
Gumorresintapping
Theresourcesfortappingofgumorresinarematureandovermaturestandsofpine,
spruce,Siberianpine,andlarchassignedforfinalorregenerationfelling.Thepeak
forthiskindofharvestingtookplaceduringtheendofthe1980sandreached100
115,000tons.Duetotheeconomictransition,theproductionhascurrentlyalmost
ceased.
Treesaps
AmongallpossibletreesapsthemostpopularinRussiaisbirchsap.Theaverage
annualcommerciallyharvestedvolumeinRussiaduringthe1980swas1015,000
tons. There are about 16 million ha of forests suitable for sap tapping, but the
productionofithasnearlyvanishedtoday.
Medicinalrawmaterial
Over2000speciesofhigherplantswithmedicinalpropertiesaregrowinginRussian
forests. Some600ofthemcouldcurrentlybeusedbythepharmaceuticalindustry,
butonlysome200speciesareusedtoday.Thus,thisresourceisunderutilized.The
utilizationofmedicinalrawmaterialsisveryprofitable.Thepurchaseofmedicalraw
materialforcommercialorganizationsbytheRussianFederalForestServicepeaked
duringthe1980swithsome2500tons.Therearealsootherorganizationsandprivate
householdscollectingmedicinalplants.
Honey
To collect honey, apiaries are established in the forests and are managed by bee
masters.Russianforestsarerichinhoneysupplyingplantspecies.Duringthe1970s
andearly1980s,honeyproducedbyenterprisesoftheRussianFederalForestService
was around 750 tons per year and the total honey production by commercial
organizationswas25,000tons.Duringthe1990s,productionbytheFederalForest
Service decreased to a few hundred tons. It means that the total production of
commercialhoneytodayisprobablyintherangeof10,000tons.
Nuts
Forest trees and brush species producing nuts are a valuable resource in Russia.
Importantpinespeciesfornutproductionare Pinussibirica, P.koraiensis,and P.
pumila.Thereareabout70millionhaoftheseforestscurrentlyatfruitbearingage.
Other important nut species are walnut and chestnut. The current commercial

36

collectionoftreenutsinRussiaisabout3500tons,whichisroughlyhalfofthe
collectionduringtheSovietperiod.

37

Ediblemushrooms
The Russian forests are rich in edible mushrooms. The accessibility of this
commercialresourceisestimatedtobe500,000tonsperyear.Intheearly1980s,the
harvest by commercial organizations was 1820,000 tons, a harvest that has now
declinedto78,000tonsperyear.
Fruitandberries
Fortheperiod19821990,thecommerciallyaccessibleyearlyresourceoffruitand
berrieswasestimatedtobe580,000tons.Thecorrespondingcommercialharvestwas
55,000tonsandtheharvestbyprivatehouseholdswas125,000tonsperyear.
Hunting
Russianborealforestsarethemainhabitatsofmanyvaluablegameanimalspecies.
Specialgamemanagementunitsareestablishedand,asarule,thesemanagement
unitsarenotthemajorusersoftheland.
Anestimateofthepopulationofmajorgameanimalsandtheofficialharvestfor1993
ispresentedinTable18.
Table18. Estimateontheproportionandharvestofmajorgameanimalsingame
managementunitsinRussiain1993.
Species
Ungulates
Furbearinganimals
Gamebirds

Population
671,000
13,900,000
41,900,000

Officialharvest
134,000
2,730,000
4,000,000

Harvest(%)
20
20
10

Thesearetheofficialfigures.Butitisalsoknownthatsubstantialoverharvestingand
illegalharvestingtakeplace.TheWorldBank(1997)reportsthatduring19931994,
2000muskdeerwereharvestedinKrasnoyarskkraj,despiteitbeingacompletely
protectedspecies.Inthisexample,beaveranddeerwereoverharvested500800%
abovethequota.
Uphyrkina (1996) makes it clear that poaching is one of the major threats to
endangeredanimalspecies.
Thus, Russian forests are rich with nonwood products and are to a large extent
underutilizedinthecurrenttransition.Conversely,thereisadocumentedoverharvest
of animal species, including protected species, which seriously threatens the
sustainabilityofbiodiversity.
The production and utilization of nonwood products in the forest sector are not
efficientlymonitoredinRussia.Efficientmonitoringaswellasmanagementmanuals
havetobeimplemented,whichwillsecuresustainableproductionoftheseproducts.

38

39

5.SocialSignificance
5.1.Economicimportance
TheforestsectorintheformerUSSRhadahighpoliticalprofilefromthelate1940s
totheearly1970s;seeforexample,Stalinstransformationplanduring19481952.
Forunknownreasons,thisprofilestartedtodeclineafterthemid1970s.Sincethen,
theforestsectorhasnotbeenabletogainthesameimportanceasbefore. Krylov
(1997)pointsoutthatthemostimportantmeasureforrebuildingtheRussianforest
sectorisanincreasedpoliticalprofileofthesector.
ItisdifficulttouseGDPestimatesinRussiaforhistoricalcomparisons.Therefore,
weuseindustrialoutputasameasure.In1987,theshareoftheforestry,mechanical
woodindustry,andpulpandpaperindustryheldtheseventhpositionofallsectorsin
Russiawithanoutputof5.62%oftotalindustrialoutput.Ithasnowdeclinedtoninth
positionwithanoutputof4.76%ofthetotalindustrialoutput(Huber etal.,1996).
However,itshouldbepointedoutthatKaufmann(1997)estimatestheshareofthe
unofficialeconomytobe40%inRussiain1996. Fromanoutputaspect,themost
important regions are; Irkutsk, Arkhangelsk, Karelia, Krasnoyarsk, Perm, Komi,
Moscow,MoscowRegion,SverdlovskandLeningrad(inthis order,Huber etal.,
1996).Duringthetransition,itcanbeseeninthestatisticsthatthecentralregions
(fromageographicalpointofview)havelostmoreinoutputincomparisonwith
regionshavingseaportsandcommunicationlinks.
5.2.Regionaldevelopmentandforestcommunities
Analyses of welfare indicators in Russia show that resourcerich and forestrich
regions seem to have a better ranking than other regions from a welfare aspect
(Lundquist et al., 1997). In this study, it was identified that regions with large
exploitableforestareas,highannualallowablecuts,andhighproductionofforest
outputarelocatedinregionswiththebestperformanceineconomicandemployment
welfarefactorsduringthetransition,namelyNorthEuropeanRussia,WestSiberia,
EastSiberiaandtheFarEast.Incontrast,theseresourcerichregionshavetheworst
rankingfromanenvironmentalaspect. Therearedifferentbeliefsofthepossible
advantagesofnaturalresourceswithrespecttoregionaldevelopment.Oneschoolof
thoughtarguesthatnaturalresourcedependentregionsfacedifficultiesindeveloping
othervitalsectors(e.g.,Auty,1993andTheEconomist,1995).Theotherschoolof
thoughtarguesthatnaturalresourcerichregionswillhaveadvantagesintheformof
better foreign exchange and in alternative strategies for new industrialization
(BradshawandLynn,1996).
Studies carried out in Russia (Bandman et al., 1995; Bradshaw and Lynn, 1996;
Malov, 1996; and Lundquist et al., 1997) conclude that natural resourcebased
production(includingtheforestsector)couldatleastprovidemediumtermsurvival
strategiesandbythatachieveimprovedregionalwelfareandlivingstandards.Itcan

40

also be concluded that in many regions, the only option for development and
improvedlivingstandardsisfurtherdevelopmentoftheforestsector.
Bradshaw andLynn(1996)havealsofoundthatresourceproducingregions have
beenallowedgreaterlocalautonomythanmanyotherregionsinRussiaduringthe
transition.
The World Bank (1997) estimates that some 18% of the workforce and directly
affectedpeopleoftheforestsectorliveinremoteloggingandforestindustrytowns
thathavebeenhithardbythedeclineinwoodproductionandtheresultingdeclinein
social services. According to the World Bank (1995), poverty has increased
substantiallysince1991.
ThefirmwasacentralinstitutionintheformerUSSRsocietyprovidingemployment,
producinggoodsandservices,andalsoofferingalargevarietyofsocialassetstobe
usedbyemployeesandoftenbythelocalpopulation.Thetransitionhasforcedfirms
to be much more economically efficient, and, with no subsidies, force them to
substantiallydownsizesocialfunctions.Inmostforestrycommunitiesthistransition
hasbeensevere.Withthephasingoutofsubsidies,thesecommunitieshavebeenleft
tofendforthemselvesandlackbasicsuppliesandservices.
Aquantitativeanalysisofindividualfirms(Wrgtteretal.,1996)showsthatthere
hasbeensubstantialsheddingofsocialestablishmentsandSiberiaseemstobemost
affectedwithnosystemestablishedtopickuptheselostfunctions.
5.3.Employment
TheRussianforestsectorisasignificantemployerthatdirectlyaccountedformore
thantwomillionemployeesinRussiain1990.Whileitisuncertainthenumberof
employeesthatdependedindirectlyonactivitiesintheforestsectors,theWorldBank
(1997)estimates this amounttobe10million. Itmeans thatalmost10%ofthe
workforce and total population were supported by activities in the forest sector
(Nilsson,1997b).
Directforestsectoremploymentfellfrom2.0to1.8millionpeoplebetween1990and
themid1990s.Althoughemploymentintheforestsectorhasfallen,ithasnotfallen
as steeply as the physical output. As a result, productivity per employee has
plummeted to less than half between 1990 and 1994. Despite the declining
productivity, expressed as productivity per employee, employment has decreased
substantially.
Theofficialunemploymentratehasrisensubstantially. Theofficialunemployment
rateislowestinEuropeanRussia(7%intheforestindustryand23%inforestryand
harvesting).CorrespondingfiguresforWestSiberiaare24%and37%;EastSiberia,
22%and32%;andintheFarEast,42%and39%,respectively.

41

5.4.Indigenouspeople
The World Bank (1997) divides indigenous people in Russia into three groups:
aboriginal(alsoknownassmallinnumberspeopleoftheNorth);otherindigenous
groups;andmigrantgroups.MostoftheaboriginalpeoplebelongtotheMongoloid
race. Other indigenous groups arrived later and practice nomadic pastoralism or
mixedfarming(oldRussiansettlers). Themigrantgroupsarepredominantlypost
WorldWarIIethnicRussians.
Therearesome30differentaboriginalgroupswithapopulationofnearly200,000
people(PisarenkoandStrakhov,1996). Thecommunitiesofthesepeoplewerethe
firsttosufferfromthegeneraltransitionandespeciallyfromthetransitioninthe
forestsector(themaincustomeroftheirproducts).Maintainingthesecommunities
traditionalactivities(hunting,fishing,reindeerbreeding)iscriticalfortheireconomic
survivalandforthepreservationoftheirculturalidentities.Atpresent,thesituationis
verycriticalfortheaboriginalpeoples.Traditionalactivitiesaredisappearingoneby
onefromtheRussianscene. Thisdevelopmentisaresultofincreasedecological
degeneration,lossofreindeerpastures,lossofeconomicallysignificantlanddueto
ongoingindustrialexploitation,increasedcostsforequipmentandtransportation,and
oustingofthepeopleoftheNorthfromhuntingandtradewithhuntingproductsby
amateur and professional hunters. This conflicts with special landuse privileges
thesegroupsweregrantedinthelate1920s.
Thebirthrateis22.5timeshigheramongtheaboriginalpeopleincomparisonwith
thenationalaverage.However,theinfantmortalityrateisalsoextremelyhighinthis
group. TheaverageinRussiais about18per1,000births,butis30amongthe
aboriginalpeople.Thepercentageofpeoplewhodiebeforetheageof60is70%in
theaboriginalgroups,whereasitis30%atthenationallevel.
Otherindigenousgroupsandmigrantpeoplesdonotsuffertothesameextentfrom
thetransitionandassimilationprocessesastheaboriginalpeoples(TheWorldBank,
1997).
5.5.Humanresources
TherearemanydimensionsandaspectsofhumanresourcesinRussiathatdeserve
thoroughanalysesanddiscussion. Wefeelitisnecessarytohighlightonespecific
dimensionofhumanresources,namely,demographics.
BasedonanalysesbyGransenetal.(1997),itcanbeclaimedthatthedemographic
developmentisacauseforseriousconcern.Birthsper1000inhabitantsdroppedto
nearlyhalf,from17.2to9duringtheperiod19871996. Duringthesameperiod,
deathsper1000inhabitants increasedbynearly50%from10.5to14.4. Natural
growthper1000inhabitants(deathslessbirths)isusedtomeasurethepopulation
development in demographics. In 1987 there was a positive natural growth of
968,000people,whichhaddevelopedintoadeficitof662,000peoplein1996.Life

42

expectancyforthemalepopulationatbirthhasdecreasedfrom64.8yearsin1987to
57.7yearsin1994.Thecorrespondingfiguresforfemalesare74.2and71.2years,
respectively(WHO,1996).Thesefiguresindicateadeclineinthetotalpopulationof
1,158,000 people between 1991 and 1996, despite a positive migration to Russia
(Gransenetal.,1997).
Thesedecliningtrendsinthedemographicdevelopmentarethesameinmostregions
ofRussia,exceptinKaliningradthatisaffectedbyanetmigration.Therearemany
speculationsforthecausesofthisdecline.TheStateStatisticsCommitteeofRussia
claimsthatthedeclineisaneffectofthecollapseoftheformerSovietUnion,which
broughtaboutageneraldeclineinlivingstandards.Others(e.g.,Eberstadt,1993;and
Poljan,1997)claimthattherootsforthedeclinewerelaiddownduringthemid
1960slate1980sintheSovietEmpirebytheinabilitytocopewithrelevantpolicies,
administrativeincapacity,andanerosionofthestategoverningpower.Iftheselatter
scientistsarecorrect,itmeansthatthedrasticnegativepopulationdevelopmenthad
alreadystartedintheformerUSSRandwasfurthertriggeredbythetransitionin
Russiainthe1990s.
We have tried to overlay detailed forest sector information with detailed
regional/populationdevelopments,andconcludethataprosperingforestsectorwould
beabletocontributetothesocialdevelopmentinthoseoblastsandrepublicsfor50
65% of the population who are experiencing a decline in their population
development.

6.InstitutionalAspects
TheeconomicandpoliticaltransitioninRussiaisextremelydifficultduetowhat
scholars call patrimonialism. Patrimonialism can be defined as a sovereign of a
patrimonialstatewhoregardshimselforherselfasboththerulerofthecountryand
itsproprietor. Politicalauthorityisseenasanextensionoftherightsofproperty
ownership,withbothlandandpeopleattheSovereignsdisposal(Jensen,1997).
Russiahasalongtraditioninpatrimonialism. Before1917,thetzarownedthe
nation,itsvastresourcesandthepeople. DuringtheSovietEmpire,thestateand
partyownedeverything.TheRussiaoftodayhastotakecareofthisinheritanceto
achieveasoundtransition.Jensen(1997)showsexamplesofongoingpatrimonialism
inRussia,namely,themannerinwhichprivatizationis carriedout,theinfamous
transforshares transactions, and the states reliance on nominally privately
authorized banks to handle large amounts of the states money. Jensen (1997)
concludes, patrimonialism fosters a close relationship between business and
politics. Thegovernmentholdslargechunksofstockinkeyindustries,andstate
effortstoregulateentrepreneurialactivitiesarehalfhearted.Patrimonialismmeans
thatpoliticalauthorityoftendependsonaleadersbusinesscontactsandleadstothe
dominance of clan politics, whereby politicians and business men, media
entrepreneurs,andsecurityforcesusethepoliticalprocesstovieforcontroloverthe

43

economy. Jensen(1997)statesthepatrimonialismalsodriveswhitecollarcrime,
suchasbribery,embezzlement,andtheextortionofprotectionmoney. Kaufmann
(1997)pointsoutthatthemacroeconomicfundamentalsseemtobeinplaceinRussia,
however,inspiteofthis,thecountryseemstobeunabletoembarkonapathto
recovery. We think that a major explanation for this may be an unsatisfactory
developmentofwhatwecallInstitutionalAspects.
Theseconditionsalsoheavilyinfluencethemanagement,control,andefficiencyof
theforestsector.
6.1. Forestsectorinstitutions
Wewillnotburdenthepresentationinthispaperwithofficialorganizationalchartsof
theRussianforestsector. Inthisrespect,wemakereferencetoworkdonebythe
WorldBank(1997).Inreality,however,whatcountsarenotofficialorganizational
charts,buthowtheflowofinformationandfundsgoandhowdecisionsaremade.
InourcurrentworkbytheIIASAForestStudy,wetrytoseebeyondofficialcharts.
InFigure3,weillustratetentativefindingsfromourcasestudyinTomskOblastinan
attempttounderstandtheactualconditions.Theenterprisesinthetoprowofboxes
aretheownersoftheUnionofForestIndustrialists. Theregionaladministrationis
partoftheUnion.TheUnionprobablymakesuseoftheregionaladministrationto
achieve its goals. Among formal owner enterprises of the Unions are public
institutions,regionalbanks,tradeunions,forestryorientedenterprises,etc. Butthe
realownersoftheseenterprises,and,bythat,therealownersoftheUnion,aretoa
largeextentthemanagersoftheenterprises.Theenterprisesinthetoprow(andthe
Union)areblockedoutfromdirectaccesstotheworldmarket.Seaportsareentirely
controlledbycentralforestsectororganizationsinMoscow.

Figure 3.

The Current Organizational Structure of the Tomsk Oblast Forest Sector

Regional
Administration,
Dept. of Forest Industry

Regional
Foresters Trade Union
Committee

Enterprise

Union of Forest Industrialists

(Soyuz lesopromyshlennikov Soyuzlesprom)
Provides services (input procurement, production planning,
marketing, sales, lobbying, etc.) to its owners

Foreign trade organizations

Sales on the regional
market

Sales to near-by Russian

regions

Sales to near-by former

Soviet republics
Exports to foreign countries.
Sales on the world market

Enterprise

This structureallows theregionalUnionto realizeprofits generatedinindividual

enterprises.ItalsoallowsMoscowbasedforestsectororganizationstorealizeprofits
generatedattheregionallevel.Thoseprofitsaregenerallynotchanneledbackinto
productioninindividualenterprisesasinvestments.
ThisprovidesaverygoodexampleofpatrimonialismintheforestsectorofRussia.
However,itisnotonlytheformalstructureoftheforestsectororganizationthatis
includedintheexpressioninstitutionalaspects.Thisexpressionalsoincludesthe
setsofrulesthesectorismanagedby(Ostrometal.,1994).Inthefollowingwewill
illustratesomeoftheinefficienciesintheseforestsectorrules. Theillustrationis
mainlybasedonfindingsbytheWorldBank(1997).
6.2. Legacyoftheoveruseofforestresources
Over time, there has been a forest mining approach and no available funds for
sustainable forest management in Russia (and the former USSR). To secure the
supplyofresourcestotheindustry,regionaloveruseoftheresourcewasregardedas
legitimatebyforestryauthorities(ShvidenkoandNilsson,1997). Thistraditionof
usesandruleswillhamperthetransitiontosustainableforestmanagement.
6.3. Inconsistenciesinforestlegislation
AccordingtotheWorldBank(1997),interimprinciplesofforestlegislationarein
linewithcurrentinternationalsocial,economic,andenvironmentalthinkingabout
sustainableforestdevelopment,buttheylackspecificityinadministrativeandfiscal
processesandleavemanyinterestedpartieswithcontroloverforestresourceswithout
properlydefiningtheirresponsibilities.ThenewForestCodedeclaresallforestsof
the State Forest Fund to be federal property, but uses language that allows the
possibilityofregionalownershipofforests.
Sheingauzetal.(1995)carriedoutvalidationoftheRussianforestlegislationbased
oncasestudies.Fromtheseanalyses,thefollowingcanbeconcluded:

Thecurrentframeworkofforestlegislationisstilllargelybasedonacentrally
plannedinstitutionalframework.

The forest legislation does not cover all functions of the Russian forest
resources,andnotevenallRussianforests.

Theforestlegislation,intheformofamatrixoflegislativeexecutivebodies,
isextremelycomplexanddifficulttoadministerandimplement.

Theforestlegislationis,toalargeextent,normativeanddescriptive,andlacks
efficientmechanismsforimplementation.

Due to the lack of mechanisms to implement legislation, there are many

loopholesthroughwhichcorruptioncantakeplace.

Thereareclausesallowingparticipationbythepeopleintheimplementation
ofthelaws,butnomechanismexistsfortheirdoingso.

Severecontradictionsthatinfluencetheadministrationofnaturalandforest
resourcesexistwithintheoverallRussianlegislativeframework.

TeetsandSaladin(1996)claimthattheprimarycriticismoftheinterimprinciplesof
theforestlegislationisthatitcontradictsandunderminesexistingenvironmental
legislationandgreatlyexpandspotentialconflictsofinterestfortheFederalForest
Servicebetweenconservationandexploitation. Sedjo(1997)illustratesthatthe
jointresponsibilitiesoftheFederalGovernmentandregionalgovernmentsinmany
casesdevelopandinviteconflicts.

6.4. Difficultiesinmeetingenvironmentalcommitments
Porifieriev(1997)concludesthat,incontrast,theexpectationthatadrasticdropin
industrial production in Russia would bring about corresponding reductions in
pollutionandcontaminationhasnotbeenrealized. Inreality,conditionshavenot
becomemuchlessacutecomparedwiththetimesbeforethetransition.Thiscanbe
explained by obsolete industrial technology, lack ofinvestments in environmental
protectionmeasuresandotherfactorsthatkeepRussiasubstantiallymorepolluted
than in the West. Annual national Russian reports on the environmental status
supportthisconclusion.
Russiahasmadeanumberofinternationalenvironmentalcommitmentswithrespect
to forestry. The World Bank (1997) states that due to a weak national forest
management policy, Russia has difficulties fulfilling these commitments. The
inefficiency of environmental control, due to a lack of resources and inefficient
organizations,iswelldocumented(WorldBank,1997).Violationsofenvironmental
regulationsarecommonplaceandseemtobepartofthetraditioninusesandrules.
Forexample,Krasnoyarskkrajreports4500violationsofwildlifemanagementrules
peryear(WorldBank,1997).
TeetsandSaladin(1996)stressthelackofcompliancewith,andimplementationand
enforcementofenvironmentalstandardscanbetracedtothreerelatedfactors:(1)the
processbywhichlawsaremade,whichallowslittledialoguewithstakeholdersand

thus builds little political will for implementation; (2) the institutional structures
responsibleforimplementationandenforcement,whichhavelimitedresourcesand
ambiguous mandates; and (3) the substantive standards themselves, which are
sometimesunrealisticandfrequentlyunclear.

6.5. Forest resource allocation and taxation

Licensestouseforestsaregrantedbydistrictauthorities,withparticipationfromthe
regionalCommitteeofForestry,throughdirectnegotiations,auctionsorcontests.The
rulesforallocationinthisprocessarenottransparentenough(Sheingauzetal.,1995).
ForestsectorenterprisesinRussiaclaimthatthetaxburdenistoohigh(90%ofthe
profit) and there are no reasons to continue businesses or start entrepreneurial
activities. Inreality,taxrecoveryisverypoorintheforestsector. However,the
WorldBank(1997)arguesthatthepotentialfortaxrevenuefromtheforestsectoris
substantialthroughstumpagecharges,taxesonharvestingcompanies,andindustrial
enterprises.TheWorldBank(1997)estimatesthetaxpotentialtobebetween1and
5.5billionUS$peryear(dependingonproductionlevel),whichcanbecompared
withtaxcollectionfromtheforestsectorin1994of180millionUS$.

6.6.Research
StronggoalorientedresearchisneededforthetransitionofRussiasforestsector.
The World Bank (1997) stresses that there is a serious lack of goal orientation,
prioritysetting,andcoordinationinforestsectorresearch,whichmakesitdifficultor
impossibletogainsupportfortheongoingtransition.Gokhbergetal.(1997)stress
itiseasytodevelopalonglistofproblemsinRussianappliedR&DandtogetR
& D to play an important role in the transition requires moving away from
widespreadsupportofnumerousR&DinstitutionsinheritedfromtheSovieteratoa
systemmoreconsistentwithamarketeconomy. Nature(1997)pointsoutthatthe
academicsmustfaceuptotheneedforradicalchangeandthatlessconvincingis
the fact that the Russian Academy of Sciences continues the conviction that it
remainsbestplacedtodecideonthestrategicdistributionofscientificresourcesto
meetthecountrysneeds.Inaddition,thedominatingpartofforestscienceisstill
centralizedandfundedbytheFederalGovernment,buttheforests(accordingtothe
newforestcode)arecontrolledbytheregions.Therefore,thereisastrongneedto
developinterlinkedfederalandregionalpolicyorientedforestresearchprograms.
However,itshouldalsobepointedoutthatthereisatremendousamountofexcellent
informationandknowledgeonRussianforestresourcesthathasbeengeneratedby
Russianscientists.However,thisinformationisonlyorganizedandcoordinatedtoa
limitedextentwherebyitcanbeusedinarelevantpolicysettingtoday.

7. RequiredPolicyActions
Inthefollowingsection,wewillhighlightsomeofthepolicyactionsurgentlyneeded
inRussiainordertomovetheforestsectortowardssustainabledevelopment.

7.1. Overall aspects

Forestsectorpolicieshavetobedevelopedthatareconsistentwiththeoverall
environmental, economic, and social objectives of the government and the
economicreformalreadyunderway(WorldBank,1997).

IdentifywhattheRussianforestsectorcouldcontributetowardsglobal,national,
andregionalenvironmentalandsocioeconomicsustainabledevelopment,and,in
doing so, increase the political status of the forest sector and set concrete
objectivesforthesector(Nilsson,1997a).

Institutional aspects as defined above, constitute a major bottleneck in the

developmentoftheRussianforestsector. Acompletenewinstitutionalaspects
package needs to be developed. This development has to start with existing
problemsintheforestsectorandsociety.Thispackagemustbefullytransparent
forallinterestgroupsoftheforestsectorandthemajorplayersinthesociety.

Sufficient and rapid recovery and development of the forest sector require
substantial capital investments. Abusow (1996) points out that the current
unsatisfactory situation in the Russian forest sector is primarily due to
uncertaintiesinthelegalandpolicyframework,whichhinderstheinternational
forestindustryfrommakingwantedinvestmentsinRussia.

7.2.Forestmonitoring

Inordertoachievesustainabledevelopmentthereisanurgentneedtoestablish
efficientforest(inabroadcontext)monitoring.Thismonitoringsystemmustbe
basedontheproblemstobesolvedandobjectivestobeachievedintheforest
sectorandinthesocietyandnotasthecurrentsystemofprimarilycollecting
data.

Thisnewresourcemonitoringsystemmustbetransparentandenableeachinterest
groupoftheforestsectortogainaccesstothedatafortheirownanalyses. It
meansthataregionallydistributedinformationsystemshouldbedevelopedand
implemented.

The data collected by the new monitoring system should be used for policy
setting.Amutualunderstandingofthedatabyprimaryinterestgroupsisneeded
inordertoachieveefficientpolicysetting.

7.3.Sustainableforestmanagement
Inordertodevelopsustainableforestmanagementregimes,Russiamust:

Evaluatetheforestsectorspossibilitiestomitigateglobalclimatechangethrough
improvedforestmanagementandimplementalongtermstrategyformitigation
andadaptationoftheRussianforestsectortoclimatechange.

Employ landscape approaches and establish a new set and distribution of

protectedareasinordertomaintainbiodiversity.

Evaluatetheforestsectorspossibilitiestomaintainsustainableproductionofnon
woodproductsandfunctionsandtoimprovefederalandregionalpoliciesinthis
respect.

Developasystemofmanagementregimesbasedonthelandscapeconcepttaking
intoaccounttheforestsecological,economicandsocialfunctions.

Bytakingtheabovecomponentsintoaccount,evaluatethesustainableeconomic
woodsupply.

7.4.Protectionofresources
Inordertoprotecttheforestresourceswithrespecttoenvironmentalandeconomic
values,Russianeedstoestablish:

An efficient monitoring and protection system for natural disturbances. Two

componentsarecrucialtosuchasystem,namelyforestfiresandinsectoutbreaks.

Anewsystemformonitoringpollutantdepositionsinforestecosystems,whichis
basedonareconsideredsystemofcriticalloadestimates.

7.5.Transportationsector
InordertostartdevelopingtheforestsectorRussiamust:

Introducestrongandefficientstrategicprogramstoimprovethetransportation
infrastructure.

Introducestate policies forcomplete marketprice setting inthe transportation

sector.

7.6.Marketsandtrade
InordertobecompetitiveoninternationalmarketsRussiamust:

Initiatetrainingcourses forenterprisesthataddressqualityproduction,market
servicesandlegaltradingaspects.

Establishtradepromotionofficesinthemarketsthesectorwouldliketotarget.

7.7.Forestindustry
Nationalandregionalpoliciesthataimatstimulatingtheforestindustryshouldbe
directedtowards:

Preservinghumanandmaterialcapitalintheregions.

Stimulatinginfrastructuredevelopment.

Developingregionalverticalandhorizontallinkswithintheeconomy.

Developingthefinancialinfrastructureoftheforestindustry(e.g.,bridgefunding
bylettersofcreditandloans).

7.8.Welfare
TheRussiangovernmentshouldurgentlystartto:

Evaluateandestablishforestsectorpoliciesthatwouldcontributetosustainable
regionaldevelopmentandincreasedregionallivingstandards.Inmanyregionsof
Russiatheforestsectoristheonlyhopefordevelopment(BradshawandLynn,
1996).

Evaluatehowandestablishpoliciesfortheforestsectorinordertomitigatethe
ongoingnegativedemographicdevelopmentinRussia.

Implementefficientprogramsforsocialassets.Therestructuringofsocialassets
inRussianenterpriseshasgonethroughadramaticchangeduringthelastfew
yearsandespeciallyintheforestcommunities. Theseassetsarecrucialfora
functionalsocietyandforindustrialdevelopment.

Establishemploymentprogramsintheforestsector.Highsocialcostsandrisks
areconnectedwiththecurrentroleofunemploymentintheforestsector.Thereis
a strong need for an employment program directed towards increased and
improvedforestmanagement,includingretrainingofunemployedworkers.An
additionalprogramshoulddealwithentrepreneurshipintheforestsector.

7.9.Aboriginalpeople
TheRussianFederalandregionalgovernmentshaveto:

Stronglyformalizetheaboriginalpeopleslandrights(WorldBank,1997).The
currentregulationsarenotfollowed.

Definepoliciesforforestmanagementandresourceallocationfortheaboriginal
communities.

Securethesocialwelfareneedsoftheaboriginalpeoplesandmitigatethenegative
impactsoftheongoingtransition.

7.10.Research
TheRussiangovernmentmust:

Reorganize and restructure forest sector research to be problem oriented, goal

oriented,andestablishnew researchprograms concentratingontheimmediate
problemstobesolvedintheforestsectorandscience.Thenewprogramsmust
pay special attention to the social, economic, and regional dimensions of the
Russianforestsector. Thismeansastrongredirectionofcurrentresearchfrom

traditional, basicoriented research towards a socialoriented problem solving

researchagenda.

References
Abusow,K.1996.FertilegroundforinvestmentinRussiasvastforests. Pulpand
PaperInternational,37(1).
Akim,E.L.1997.ThestateofRussiaspulpandpaperindustry.Paperpresentedat
the37thSessionoftheFAOAdvisoryCommitteeonPulpandPaper.April
2426,Marrakesh,FAO,Rome,Italy.
Auty,R.M.1993.SustainableDevelopmentinMineralEconomics:TheResource
CurseThesis,Routledge,London,UK.
Backman,C.A.1993.ProspectsforwoodrawmaterialexportsfromRussiatoPacific
RimandEuropeanmarketsupuntiltheyear2000.Unpublishedmanuscript,
UniversityofWashington,Seattle,USA.
Backman, C.A. 1995a. The Russian forest sector: Production, consumption, and
exportprospects.PostSovietGeographyandEconomics,36(5):310322.
Backman, C.A. 1995b. The Russian forest sector: An analysis by four regions.
WorkingPaper9544,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Backman, C.A. 1996a. The Russian forest sector: Opportunities and challenges.
WorkingPaper9653,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalyses,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Backman,C.A.1996b.TheRussianforestsector:Prospects fortradewithformer
Sovietrepublics.PostSovietGeographyandEconomics,37(1):1659.
Backman,C.A.1997. TheForestIndustrialSectorofRussia.AnOpportunity. The
ParthenonPublishingGroup,Carnforth,UK(inpress).
Backman, C.A. and Blam, Y. 1997. Russian and Siberian forest industry past,
present and future: The way ahead. In Nilsson, S. (ed.) Dialogue on
Sustainable Development of the Russian Forest Sector, Volume 1. Interim
Report 97009. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Bandman,M.K.,Malov,V.,vanderKnapp,B.A.andWever,E.(eds)1995.Lower
Angara Region, Netherlands Geographical Studies 198, The Royal Dutch
GeographicalSociety,Utrecht/Rotterdam,TheNetherlands.
Barr,B.M.andBraden,K.E.1988. ThedisappearingRussianforest.Adilemmain
sovietresourcemanagement.Rowman&Littlefield,London,UK.
Bazilevich, N.I. 1993. Biological productivity of ecosystems of Northern Eurasia.
NaukaPublishingHouse,Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
Blaha,J.andKahn,M.1991.TransportationintheEast:Thekeytotradebetween
thetwoEuropes.EasternEuropeanEconomics29(2).
Blauberg,K.1996.Siberianforeststudydatadictionary.InternationalInstitutefor
AppliedSystemsAnalyses,Laxenburg,Austria(unpublishedmanuscript).
Bradshaw,M.J.andLynn,N.J.1996.Resourcebaseddevelopment:Whatchangefor
the Russian Far East? Russian Regional Research Group, School of
GeographyandCentreforRussianandEastEuropeanStudies,WorkingPaper
3,TheUniversityofBurmingham,UK.

Burdin,N.A.andRyzhenkov,A.1997.Currentsituationanddevelopmentprospects
oftheRussianforestandforestindustrysector.Paperpresentedattheinternational
seminarThePotentialoftheRussianForestsandForestIndustries,1416May
1997,Moscow,UniversityofJoensuu,Finland.
Dixon, R.K., Brown, S., Houghton, R.A., Solomon, A.M., Trexler, M.C. and J.
Wisniewski.1994.Carbonpoolsandfluxofglobalforestecosystems.Science
263:185190.
Downing,R.J.,Hettelingh,J.P.,anddeSmet,P.A.M.(eds)1993.Calculationand
mapping of critical thresholds in Europe. CCE Status Report, RIVM,
Bilthoven,TheNetherlands.
Duinker, P. (ed). 1996. Biodiversity of Siberian forests: Concepts, preliminary
analyses, and proposed research directions. Working Paper 9679,
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Eberstadt, N. 1993. Mortality and the fate of communist states. Communist
EconomiesandEconomicTransformation5(4).
The Economist. 1995. The natural resources myth: Dangerous endowments. The
Economist,23December1995.
European Parliament. 1995. Siberian forests and timber trade, STOA, European
Parliament,Brussels,Belgium.
FAO.1995.Forestresourcesassessment1990.GlobalSynthesis.FAOForestryPaper
124.FAO,Rome,Italy.
FederalForestServiceofRussia.1994.RussianForests.AllRussianResearchand
InformationCentreforForestResources,Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
FederalForestServiceofRussia.1995.Manualforforestinventoryandplanningof
the Russian forest fund. Federal Forest Service of Russia, Moscow (in
Russian).
Feshbach, M. (ed.) 1995. Environmental and Health Atlas of Russia. PAIMS
PublishingHouse,Moscow,Russia.
ForestNewspaper.1997.TheforestcodeoftheRussianfederation,approvedbythe
StateDuma.22January1997.ForestNewspaper11(10)(inRussian).
Giryaev, M.D. 1997. The system of forest management in Russia: Legal and
normativebasis.PaperpresentedattheinternationalseminarThePotentialof
the Russian Forests and Forest Industries, 1416 May 1997, Moscow,
UniversityofJoensuu,Finland.
Glowka,L.,BurhenneGuilmin,F.andSynge,H.1994.AGuidetotheConventionon
BiologicalDiversity,IUCN,Gland,Switzerland.
Gokhberg, L., Peck, M.J. and Gacs, J. (eds.) 1997. Russian applied research and
development: Its problems and its promise. Research Report 977,
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Goskompriroda,R.F.1995and1996.Nationalreportontheenvironmentalstatusand
nature protection in the Russian federation. State Committee of Nature
ProtectionoftheRussianFederation,Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
Gransen, J.,Nilsson,S. and Zackrisson, U. 1997.Russian forest sector Human
resources.InterimReport97008.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Gusewelle, C.W. 1992. World forests: Siberia on the brink. American Forests,
May/June1992.

Hettelingh,J.P.,Posch,M.anddeSmet,P.A.M.1995.Calculationandmappingof
critical thresholds in Europe. Status Report 1993. CCE, RIVM, Report
259101004,RIVM,Bilthoven,TheNetherlands.
Huber,P.,Nagaev,S.andWrgtter,A.1996.TherelocationofRussianindustry
19871993.WorkingPaper96162.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Isaev,A.S.(ed).1991.ForestryontheboundaryofXXIcentury.EcologyVol.1&2,
Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
Jensen,D.N.1997.PatriomonialisminPostSovietRussia.RFEIRLNewslineNo.75,
17July1997.
Kakizawa,H.1994.Japan:PotentialmarketforRussianwood.WorkingPaper94
094,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Kakizawa,H.1996.TrendsintheJapaneseRussianTimberTradeandtheJapanese
Sawmill Industry Using Russian Logs. Research Bulletin of the Hokkaido
University,Forests,53(2):147155.
Karjalainen,T.andLiski,J.1997.ApproachesforcarbonanalysesoftheSiberian
forests. Interim Report 97023, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Kaufmann, D. 1997. Why is Ukraines economy and Russias not growing?
Transition,8(2):58.
Kharuk,V.I.,Nilsson,S.andSamarskaia,E.1996.Anthropogenicandtechnogenic
stress factors to forests in Siberia. Working Paper 96104, International
InstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalyses,Laxenburg,Austria.
Klever, V.E., Dinerstein, E.,Olson,D.and Williams,L. (eds.)1994. Conserving
Russias Biological Diversity: An Analytical Framework and Initial
InvestmentPortfolio.WorldWildlifeFund,WashingtonD.C.,USA.
Knight,R.1992.Northernexposure:thebills areduefor70years ofcommunist
exploitation.USNewsWorldReport,March30,1992.
Komiev, S. 1997. Financial possibilities for investing in Russian pulp and paper.
Paper presented at the international seminar The Potential of the Russian
Forests and Forest Industries, 1416 May 1997, Moscow, University of
Joensuu,Finland.
Krylov,A.I.1997.Exportoftimberandotherforestproducts:Currentsituationand
prospects.PaperpresentedattheinternationalseminarThePotentialofthe
RussianForestsandForestIndustries,1416May1997,Moscow,University
ofJoensuu,Finland.
Kukuev,Y.A.1997.TheforestresourcesoftheRussianfederationandtheirregional
characteristics.PaperpresentedattheinternationalseminarThePotentialof
the Russian Forests and Forest Industries, 1416 May 1997, Moscow,
UniversityofJoensuu,Finland.
Lundquist,B.,Nilsson,S.andZackrisson,U.1997.RussianForestSectorWelfare
Indicators.InterimReport97029.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Malov, V. 1996. Development options for the Lower Angara Region (LAR) in
Siberia.WorkingPaper96115.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Nature. 1997. Time for determination and hope in Russia. Editorial, Nature
387(6633):533.

Newell,J.andWilson,E.1996.TheRussianFarEast,forests,biodiversityhotspots,
andindustrialdevelopments.FriendsoftheEarthJapan,Tokyo,Japan.
Nilsson, S. 1995. Global supply outlookRussia. In TAPPI Global Fiber Supply
Symposium.TAPPIPress,Atlanta,GA,USA.
Nilsson,S.(ed)1997b.DialogueonsustainabledevelopmentoftheRussianforest
sector,VolumeII.InterimReport97010.InternationalInstituteforApplied
SystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Nilsson,S.,Blauberg,K.,Kharuk,V.andSamarskaia,E.1997. PollutionStressof
SiberianForests.KluwerPublication(inpress).
Nilsson, S., Sallns, O., Hugosson, M. and Shvidenko, A. 1992. The Forest
ResourcesoftheFormerEuropeanUSSR.TheParthenonPublishingGroup,
Carnforth,UK.
Nilsson, S., Shvidenko, A., Bondarev, A. and Danilin, I. 1994. Siberian forestry.
WorkingPaper9408,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Noss, R.F. 1990. Indicators for monitoring biodiversity: A hierarchial approach.
ConservationBiology4:355363.
Noss,R.F.1995.MaintainingEcologicalIntegrityinRepresentativeNetworks.World
Wildlife Fund Canada, Toronto, Ontario and World Wildlife Fund, USA,
Washington,D.C.
Ostrom,E.,Gardner,R.andWalker,J.1994.Gamesandrulesandcommonpool
resources,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,USA.
Pisarenko,A.I.andStrakhov,V.V.1996.SocioeconomicassessmentoftheRussian
boreal forests. Working Paper 9658, International Institute for Applied
SystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Poliakov,M.1995.Ukrainianforestsectorandmarketfortimberproducts.Working
Paper 95116, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Poljan,P.1997.RusslandinBewegung,DiePresse,11January1997.
Porifiriev, B. 1997. Environmental policy in Russia: Economic, legal, and
organizationalissues.EnvironmentalManagement21(2).
Posch,M.,Hettelingh,J.P.,Sverdrup,H.anddeWries,W.1993.Guidelinesforthe
computationandmappingofcriticalloadsandexceedancesofsulphurand
nitrogeninEurope.InDowning,R.J.,Hettelingh,J.P.,anddeSmet,P.A.M.
(eds.)CalculationandMappingofCriticalThresholdsinEurope.CCEStatus
Report,RIVM,Bilthoven,TheNetherlands.
Raile,G.1994.EvaluationofRussianforestinventorydata.InternationalInstitutefor
AppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria(unpublishedmanuscript).
Rozanov,A.1995.MethaneemissionsfromforestandagriculturallandinRussia.
WorkingPaper9531,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Rozhkov,V.,Efremov,D.,Nilsson,S.,Sedych,V.,Shvidenko,A.,Sokolov,V.and
Wagner,V.1996.Siberianlandscapeclassificationandadigitizedmapof
Siberianlandscapes.WorkingPaper96111.InternationalInstituteforApplied
SystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Rozhkov, V.A., Wagner, V.B., Kogut, B.M., Konyushkov, D.E., Nilsson, S.
Sheremet, V.B. and Shvidenko, A. 1996. Soil carbon estimates and soil

carbon map for Russia. Working Paper 9660, International Institute for
AppliedSystemsAnalyses,Laxenburg,Austria.
Rutland,P.1997.BattleragesoverRussiasnaturalmonopolies.Transition,8(3):13
15.
Sedjo,R.1997.KhabarovskiKrajForestCode.ResourcesfortheFuture,August
1997,Washington,D.C.,USA(unpublishedmemo).
Segerstahl, B., Akleyev, A. and Novikov, V. 1997. The Long Shadow of Soviet
PlutoniumProduction.Environment39(1).
Shadrin,A.1997.Frominflationtoinvestmentbanking.BusinessinRussia,76.
Sheingauz, A.S. 1989. Forest resources of Far Eastern economic region: Status,
utilization, and reproduction. Far Eastern Forestry Institute, Khabarovsk,
Russia(inRussian).
Sheingauz,A.S.,Karakin,V.P.andTyukulov,V.A.1996.ForestsectoroftheRussian
FarEast.Astatusreport.EconomicResearchInstitute,FarEasternDivision,
RussianAcademyofSciences,KhabarovskandVladivostok,Russia.
Sheingauz, A.S., Nilsson, S. and Shvidenko, A. 1995. Russian forest legislation.
WorkingPaper95045.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Shvidenko, A. 1997. Biospheric role of the Russian forests. In S. Nilsson (ed.)
DialogueonsustainabledevelopmentoftheRussianforestsector,VolumeI.
InterimReport97009,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Shvidenko, A. and Nilsson, S. 1996. Expanding forests but declining mature
coniferousforestsinRussia.WorkingPaper9659,InternationalInstitutefor
AppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Shvidenko,A.andNilsson,S.1997.AretheRussianforestsdisappearing?Unasylva
48(188):5764.
Shvidenko,A.,Nilsson,S.andV.Roshkov.1995.Possibilitiesforincreasedcarbon
sequestrationthroughimprovedprotectionofRussianforests.WorkingPaper
9586, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria.
Shvidenko,A.,Nilsson,S.andV.Roshkov.1997.Possibilitiesforincreasedcarbon
sequestration through the implementation of rational forest management in
Russia.Water,AirandSoilPollution94:137162.
Shvidenko, A., Venevsky, S. and Nilsson, S. 1997. Generalized estimation of
incrementandmortalityinRussianforests.InProceedingsofthe7 th Annual
ConferenceoftheInternationalBorealForestResearchAssociation(IBFRA),
1923August1996,St.Petersburg,Russia.IBFRA,Moscow,1997,pp.184
191.
Shvidenko,A.,Venevsky,S.,Raile,G.andS.Nilsson.1995.Asystemforevaluation
ofgrowthandmortalityinRussianforests.Water,AirandSoilPollution82(1
2):333350.
Shvidenko,A.,Venevsky,S.,Raile,G.andS.Nilsson.1996a.Dynamicsofthefully
stockedstandsintheterritoryoftheformerSovietUnion.Workingpaper96
19.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Shvidenko, A., Venevsky, S. and S. Nilsson. 1996b. Increment and mortality for
major forest species of Northern Eurasia with variable growing stock.

WorkingPaper9698.InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Simons.1992. RussianPulpandPaperIndustry.AnOpportunityAssessmentand
Analysis. Prepared for Canadians. Simons, Vancouver, British Columbia,
Canada.
Sokolov,P.A.1997.Ecologicalreviewofsomeproblemsinthesphereofforestuse
within the Russian federation. Paper presented at the international seminar
ThePotentialoftheRussianForestsandForestIndustries,1416May1997,
Moscow,UniversityofJoensuu,Finland.
Stanglin,D.1992.Toxicwasteland.USNewsWorldReport,13April1992.
Strakhov, V.V., Filipchuk, A.N. and Shvidenko, A.Z. 1995. Reform of the forest
inventorysysteminRussia.ForestManagement1:1114.
Strakhov,V.V.andPisarenko,A.I.1995.Dynamicsandsustainabledevelopmentof
Russian forest resources. Paper presented at the workshop Landuse of
EurAsia,April1995,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,
Laxenburg,Austria.
Strakhov, V.V. and Pisarenko, A.I.1996. Development and utilization of Russian
forestresources.SilvaFennica30:23.
Tak,K.1994a.ForeigninvestmentintheforestsectorintheRussianFarEastand
potential market integration with Northeast Asia. Working Paper 94092.
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Tak,K.1994b.SouthKoreaPotentialmarketforRussianlogs.WorkingPaper94
093,InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Teets,R.M.andSaladin,C.1996.AWhitePaperonRussianEnvironmentalLaw.
USAIDandCenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw,Washington,D.C.,
USA.
Tracy, L.A. 1994. The deforestation of Siberia: Economic and environmental
problems in Russian forest management. Forest Industry Lecture No. 32,
FacultyofAgriculture,ForestryandHomeEconomics,UniversityofAtlanta,
Edmonton,Canada.
United Nations. 1992. The forest resources of the temperate zones. The UN
ECE/FAO 1990 Forest Resource Assessment, Volume I. General Forest
ResourceInformation.UnitedNations,NewYork,USA.
UnitedNations.1996.Europeantimbertrendsandprospects:Intothe21stcentury.
ECE/TIM/SP/II,UnitedNations,NewYorkandGeneva.
Uphyrkina,O.1996.Assessmentoftheinfluenceofforestexploitationonspecies
biodiversity in the Russian Far East. Working Paper 96147, International
InstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
USSRAcademyofSciences.1984. RedBookofRussianPlants.Rosselchozizdat,
Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
USSRAcademyofSciences.1985. RedBookofRussianAnimals.Rosselchozizdat,
Moscow,Russia(inRussian).
Venevskaia, I. 1996. Species of interest in forestry biodiversity conservation. In
Duinker, P. (ed.) Biodiversity of Siberian Forests: Concepts, Preliminary
Analyses, and Proposed Research Directions. Working Paper 9679,
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.

Waggener,T.R.,Backman,C.A.andGataulina,E.1996.OutlookforRussianforest
product trade with Peoples Republic of China. Working Paper 9672.
InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
WHO.1996.WorldHealthStatisticsAnnual1995.WHO,Geneva,Switzerland.
Wrgtter,A.,Tratch,I.andRein,M.1996.SocialassetrestructuringinRussian
enterprises:ResultsofasurveyinselectedRussianregions.InOECD:The
Changing Social Benefits in Russian Enterprises, OECD, Centre for Co
operationwiththeEconomiesinTransition,Paris,France.
WorldBank.1995.PovertyinRussia:AnAssessment.TheWorldBank,Europeand
CentralAsiaRegion,Washington,D.C.,USA.
World Bank. 1997. Russia. Forest Policy during Transition. The World Bank,
Washington,D.C.USA.
Youchnovskii, V.V., Nilsson, S. and Shvidenko, A. 1996. Some aspects of the
hydrologicalregimes ofSiberianforests.InternationalInstituteforApplied
SystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria(unpublishedmanuscript).
Zelenev,V.V.1996.Assessmentoftheaverageannualmethanefluxfromthesoilsof
Russia. Working Paper 9651, International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis,Laxenburg,Austria.
Zimov, S.A., Voropaev, Y.V., Semiletov, I.P., Davidov, S.P., Prosiannikov, S.F.,
Chaplin III, F.S., Chapin, M.C., Trumbore, S. and Tyler, S. 1997. North
Siberianlakes:Amethanesourcefueledbypleistocenecarbon.Science277:
800801.

APPENDIX