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Ireland’s Energy Forecasts Matthew Clancy – Energy Modelling Group
Ireland’s Energy Forecasts
Matthew Clancy – Energy Modelling Group
Overview The modelling process • Input assumptions and impact of economic uncertainty • Scenarios and
Overview
The modelling process
• Input assumptions and impact of economic uncertainty
• Scenarios and energy targets
• Key messages
Energy Forecasts – Method, Assumptions and Scenarios
Energy Forecasts –
Method, Assumptions and Scenarios
Process Stakeholder Energy NEEAP Consultation Balance Savings SEAI Assumptions Forecast and Scenarios Numbers
Process
Stakeholder
Energy
NEEAP
Consultation
Balance
Savings
SEAI
Assumptions
Forecast
and
Scenarios
Numbers
IsUs
PLEXOS
Energy
Electricity
Stakeholder
Demand
Consultation
ESRI
Modelling
Output
•Baseline
•NEEAP/NREAP
•Sensitivities
Fuel price assumptions €/boe 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 Oil Projections (E3M Lab –EU Ref
Fuel price assumptions
€/boe
2012
2015
2020
2025 2030
Oil Projections
(E3M Lab –EU Ref
Scenario)
85.7
86.2
87.0
88.6
90.8
Coal
16.7
19.4
19.3
19.3
(DECC
15.3
Projections)
Gas
40.7
47.5
47.2
47.2
47.2
(DECC
Projections)
€/tCO 2
EU-ETS
Carbon Price
(EU Reference
7.2
10
17
27
37
Scenario)
Fuel price assumptions Oil ($/barrel) 140 120 100 80 EU Ref Scenario Historic Oil Price
Fuel price assumptions Oil ($/barrel)
140
120
100
80
EU Ref Scenario
Historic Oil Price
60
40
20
0
$/barrel
Fuel price assumptions Gas (£ p/Th) 80 70 60 50 40 DECC Central Scenraio Historic
Fuel price assumptions Gas (£ p/Th)
80
70
60
50
40
DECC Central Scenraio
Historic Gas Price
30
20
10
0
Gas Price GBP (pence /Therm)
Macro-economic assumptions 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 GDP 0.1 2.0 3.9 2.0 2.0 GNP -0.3
Macro-economic assumptions
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
GDP
0.1
2.0
3.9
2.0
2.0
GNP
-0.3
1.2
3.5
2.0
2.3
National Resources
(GNDI + Capital
Transfers)
-1.5
0.4
3.7
2.1
3.1
Investment
-12.0
1.2
10.1
1.7
3.9
Productivity (GDP per
head)
0.8
2.0
1.6
1.3
0.9
Average Non-
Agricultural Earnings
1.5
1.2
3.8
3.9
3.1
Employment, April
-0.7
0.1
2.2
0.7
1.0
Labour Force, April
1.6
-0.2
0.7
0.8
0.6
For end Year:
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Net Immigration
-27.5
-16.5
0.8
0.7
2.9
Unemployment rate,
ILO Basis %
16.4
15.2
8.9
9.3
7.3
Balance of Payments,
% of GNP
0.5
5.7
4.3
3.9
4.2
Scenarios • Baseline Scenario (with measures) – Measures in place before the end 2012 –
Scenarios
• Baseline Scenario (with measures)
– Measures in place before the end 2012
– Recent policy (EE and renewables) measures
– Benchmark to measure other scenarios against
• NEEAP/NREAP Scenario (with additional measures)
– Establish the level of policy effort required to meet targets
– National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP)
• 20% EE saving in 2020 compared to 2001-2005 baseline
– National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)
• Two Binding Targets from Renewable Energy Directive
• 16% renewable energy share of total consumption – 10% in transport
– No new policy post 2020
Impact of economic uncertainty 14,000 13,500 2009 forecast (WP Plus) 13,000 2010 forecast (NEEAP/NREAP) 12,500
Impact of economic uncertainty
14,000
13,500
2009 forecast (WP Plus)
13,000
2010 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
12,500
2011
forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
12,000
2012
forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
11,500
2013
forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
11,000
10,500
10,000
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
ktoe
Energy forecasts 2020 targets and where we are now
Energy forecasts 2020 targets and
where we are now
Headline 2020 targets for Ireland Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy 20% energy savings by 2020 (31,925
Headline 2020 targets for Ireland
Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
20% energy savings
by 2020
(31,925 GWh)
Overall 16% RES of national
consumption.
Three sub-targets
o
RES-Electricity 40%
o
RES-Heat 12%
o
RES-Transport 10%
Emissions
EU Effort Sharing Decision (2013 – 2020)
o
20% reduction non-ETS emissions relative to
2005
o
Annual limits
Target interaction 1 – EE & RE 10% Electricity Electricity 40% 10% 40% Transport Transport
Target interaction 1 – EE & RE
10%
Electricity
Electricity
40%
10%
40%
Transport
Transport
Heat
Heat
12%
12%
Efficiency gains make renewables targets easier …
Target interaction 2 – Shift demand 10% 10% Electricity Electricity 40% Transport Transport 40% Heat
Target interaction 2 – Shift demand
10%
10%
Electricity
Electricity
40%
Transport
Transport
40%
Heat
12%
Heat
12%
Shift demand into end use sector where ready solutions
exist…(e.g. electrification of heat and transport)
Context for Renewable Energy in 2012 RE Directive = 7.1% of GFC RES-T 3.8% RES-H
Context for Renewable Energy in 2012
RE Directive = 7.1%
of GFC
RES-T
3.8%
RES-H
5.2%
RES-E
19.6%
What's required to meet the targets?
What's required to meet the
targets?
Energy Efficiency Success requires €575 million 100,000 home upgrades p.a. 2011 €2.5 billion p/a €1
Energy Efficiency
Success requires
€575
million
100,000 home
upgrades p.a.
2011
€2.5
billion
p/a
€1 bn investment per
year
2020
Business and public
sector savings
Renewable Electricity Success requires 19.6% Deploy 250 MW per annum, up from 170 2012 40%
Renewable Electricity
Success requires
19.6%
Deploy 250 MW per
annum, up from 170
2012
40%
Biomass CHP,
Waste to Energy,
Co-firing
2020
Renewable Transport 10% Success requires 200,000 Rapid growth in electric vehicles EVs 8-9% biofuels Requires
Renewable Transport
10%
Success requires
200,000
Rapid growth in electric
vehicles
EVs
8-9%
biofuels
Requires international
supply of acceptable
biofuels
3.8%
Develop
Biogas
Use of waste material to
produce biogas for
transport
2012
2020
Renewable Heat 12% Current policy will not deliver target Services Household Industry 5.2 Target requires
Renewable Heat
12%
Current policy will
not deliver target
Services
Household
Industry
5.2
Target requires the
equivalent of
300,000 homes
installing
renewable heat
%
Industry offers
quick wins
2012
2020
What energy sources are required to meet RES targets? Bioenergy, 50% Other Renewable Sources, 50%
What energy sources are required to
meet RES targets?
Bioenergy, 50%
Other
Renewable
Sources, 50%
% contribution to 2020
RES targets
• Biofuels in transport
• Wind, hydro and
ocean in electricity
• AD and solid biomass in
heat and electricity
• EVs in transport
• Heat-pumps for heat
Key Messages
Key Messages
Key Messages • Energy demand projections have been falling in-line with forecasts of economic growth
Key Messages
• Energy demand projections have been falling in-line with
forecasts of economic growth and policy action
• No new polices post 2020 modelled
• Level of effort to reach 2020 energy targets
• Bioenergy has a large role to paly
Thank you
Thank you