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Overview
The modelling process
Input assumptions and impact of economic uncertainty
Scenarios and energy targets
Key messages
Energy Forecasts
Method, Assumptions and Scenarios
Process
Stakeholder
Consultation
Energy
Balance
SEAI
Forecast
Numbers
Assumptions
and
Scenarios
IsUs
Energy
Demand
PLEXOS
Electricity
ESRI
Modelling
Output
Stakeholder
Consultation
Baseline
NEEAP/NREAP
Sensitivities
NEEAP
Savings
2015
2020
2025
2030
85.7
86.2
87.0
88.6
90.8
(DECC
Projections)
15.3
16.7
19.4
19.3
19.3
Gas
40.7
47.5
47.2
47.2
47.2
7.2
10
17
27
37
/boe
Oil Projections
(E3M Lab EU Ref
Scenario)
Coal
(DECC
Projections)
/tCO2
EU-ETS
Carbon Price
(EU Reference
Scenario)
120
100
$/barrel
80
EU Ref Scenario
60
40
20
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Macro-economic assumptions
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
2020-25
2025-30
GDP
0.1
2.0
3.9
2.0
2.0
GNP
National Resources
(GNDI + Capital
Transfers)
-0.3
1.2
3.5
2.0
2.3
-1.5
0.4
3.7
2.1
3.1
Investment
-12.0
1.2
10.1
1.7
3.9
0.8
2.0
1.6
1.3
0.9
1.5
1.2
3.8
3.9
3.1
Employment, April
-0.7
0.1
2.2
0.7
1.0
1.6
-0.2
0.7
0.8
0.6
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Net Immigration
-27.5
-16.5
0.8
0.7
2.9
Unemployment rate,
ILO Basis %
16.4
15.2
8.9
9.3
7.3
Balance of Payments,
% of GNP
0.5
5.7
4.3
3.9
4.2
Scenarios
13,000
2010 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
12,500
ktoe
2011 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
12,000
2012 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
11,500
2013 forecast
(NEEAP/NREAP)
11,000
10,500
10,000
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
RES-Electricity 40%
RES-Heat 12%
RES-Transport 10%
Emissions
EU Effort Sharing Decision (2013 2020)
20% reduction non-ETS emissions relative to
2005
o Annual limits
o
Electricity
40%
Transport
10%
Electricity
40%
Transport
Heat
Heat
12%
12%
Efficiency gains make renewables targets easier
10%
Electricity
40%
Transport
Electricity
Transport
40%
Heat
12%
12%
Heat
RE Directive = 7.1%
of GFC
RES-T
3.8%
RES-H
5.2%
RES-E
19.6%
Energy Efficiency
Success requires
575
million
100,000 home
upgrades p.a.
2011
2.5
billion
p/a
2020
1 bn investment per
year
Business and public
sector savings
Renewable Electricity
Success requires
19.6%
2012
40%
2020
Biomass CHP,
Waste to Energy,
Co-firing
Renewable Transport
10%
Success requires
200,000
EVs
8-9%
biofuels
Requires international
supply of acceptable
biofuels
3.8%
Develop
Biogas
2012
2020
Renewable Heat
12%
Services
Household
Industry
5.2
%
Industry offers
quick wins
2012
2020
Bioenergy, 50%
% contribution to 2020
RES targets
Biofuels in transport
AD and solid biomass in
heat and electricity
Key Messages
Key Messages
Energy demand projections have been falling in-line with
forecasts of economic growth and policy action
No new polices post 2020 modelled
Level of effort to reach 2020 energy targets
Bioenergy has a large role to paly
Thank you