CITY-CLIMATE RISK ASSESSEMENT: DAKAR

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR

INTRODUCTION
Located on the Western coast of Africa, Dakar pierces into the Atlantic Ocean on the Cap Vert

Peninsula. Because it lies in a transition zone between the Sahelian and Guinean climates, Dakar
benefits from warm temperatures all year long, great amount of sunshine hours - 3,000 per year (Diop,
2009), but suffers from significant variations in rainfall. The semi-arid climate alternates between dry
season from November to mid-June, and rainy season from mid-June to October.
Metropolitan Dakar - the economic and administrative city - accounts for less than 1% of the countrys
land mass but contributes to 80% of the economic activity. It is home to nearly 25% of Senegals
population.

The Dakar Metropolitan Region showing the vulnerable coastal cities of Rufisque and Pikine.
Source: IGN map

Different forms of governance (Region, Department, Arrondissement, Commune, Rural

Communities) are overlapping in an intricate territorial and administrative organization. At the
regional level, there is the larger Region (headed by an appointed governor), and the smaller
Department (headed by an appointed prefect). The local level is characterized by three distinct
administrative entities: the Arrondissement (headed by an appointed sous-prefect), the Communes
(headed by an elected mayor) and the Rural Communities (headed by an elected president of rural
communities). This institutional complexity and ambiguity creates a fragmented framework to support
local policies. There is a lack of vertical coherence in governing structure.

RISK ANALYSIS

2.1.

HAZARDS

Definition of hazard (UN/ISDR, 2004)

A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury,
property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. Hazards can include latent
conditions that may represent threats and can have different origins: natural (geological, hydro meteorological and
biological) or induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological hazards). Hazards can
be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects. Each hazards is characterized by its location,
intensity, frequency and probability.

Dakar is vulnerable to natural and man-made disasters including floods, coastal erosion, drought and
the risk of climate change-induced sea level rise.

2.1.1.

Climate change trends and projections for Dakar

The observed climate trends in Dakar, from 1900 to 2005, are negative when it comes to the annual
mean temperature and the annual precipitation (see Figure 1 below).

(Can you possibly put this in as a text... I have a

hard time making it out?) Maybe you can put the info into a table here)
Figure 1. Observed climate trends in Dakar. Source: Blake et al., 2011
However, even if these trends are negative, the past two decades have experienced warmer
temperatures and an increased in percentage of intense rainfall events, as seen in the figure 2 below

Figure 2. Observed climate trends in Dakar. Trends and statistical significance are shown for the data available for
the twentieth century. Note differences in temperatures and precipitation scales. Source: Blake et al., 2011

In addition to the trends and extreme events data collected for Dakar, the Global Climate Models
(GCM) projections show in Figure 3 that Dakar will become warmer over the years. The change in
precipitations is more difficult to analyze because what matters the most is the distribution of the
precipitation over the years (the variance of the precipitation with respect to the mean), which defines
an extreme event, and not the increase or decrease of the annual mean in precipitation.

Figure 3. GCM projections for Dakar. Source: Blake et al., 2011

Over an 11-year period, Dakar has experienced a sea level rise of 1.5 cm. Because a lack of data, no
projection has been calculated but Dakar is clearly at risk with the sea level rise (Blake et al., 2011).

2.1.2.

Hazards associated to climate change

Flooding is the most serious natural hazard that Senegal faces. Dakar is particularly at risk. From 70 to
2000, Senegal has experienced a long period of drought and rural inhabitants have migrated to urban
centers. In Dakar, they often created unplanned and disorganized settlement in dry depressions and
lowlands, particularly in the peri-urban areas of Pikine and Guediawaye.
Annual flooding affects the poorest city residents the most because of their tendency to live in flood
prone areas that suffer from a lack of basic services. In 2009 alone (one of the major flooding event),
floods in the outskirts of Dakar affected an estimated 360,000 people.
Sea-level changes and increased intensity of storm surge are also known to lead to coastal erosion, also
a major risk for the population and the economy of Dakar. The main erosion areas identified in Dakar
include: Camberene-Yof, Rufisque-Bargny, and the bay of Hann. The exposure and vulnerability of
economic assets for Dakar Metropolitan area have been inferred from a spatial analysis of land price
values and estimated that out of a total land value of US$44 billion, over US$2 billion of assets are
considered exposed to high natural hazard potentials (Wang, 2009).

2.2.

VULNERABILITIES

Definition of vulnerability (UN/ISDR, 2004)

The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase
the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards.

In order to complete the risk analysis, it is important to identify the most vulnerable segments of
Metropolitan Dakar.
2.2.1.

Location

Metropolitan Dakar is characterized by low lands elevation, as shown on the Figure 4 below.
Most economic and human activities are located on the coastline, which impacts negatively human
settlements and economic assets due to the flood risks and sea level rise risk.

Relative Flood Potential (RFP)

Coastal Erosion Potential (CEP)
Coastal Inundation Potential (CIP)

Source: World Bank, 2009

Also, the degradation of the natural resources such as the ground water salinization or coastal erosion
weakens the ecosystem on which Dakar relies.

Figure 4. Dakar flood potential map.

2.2.2.

People

Dakar Metropolitan area is characterized by an intense urbanization process, defined by:

A rapid pace of urbanization: over the last 20Y, the most significant urban growth happened in the
peri-urban expansion area. 40% of these dwelling occurs on high-risk lands. (Lall, 2009). Dakar
has the worlds 9th largest share of urban population living in vulnerable, low-elevation coastal
zone.

A high density of population: population is unevenly distributed through the Dakar Metropolitan
area territory (Wang, 2009)(see Table 1). 2.16 million of inhabitants occupy less than 1% of the
national territory, representing 25% of its total population and 50% of Senegal urban population.

Department
Surface (in square km)
Density (inhabitants per square km)
Dakar
78.5
13,366
Guediawaye
12.9
22,108
Pikine
86.8
9,777
Rufisque
371.8
842
Total (Dakar Metro.)
580
4,122
Table 1. Density of population in Dakar Metropolitan area (Source: Wang, 2009)

The physical vulnerability and risk in Dakar are particularly high in the peri-urban areas. The largest
concentrations of slums are located in Pikine and Guediawaye. These departments are flood-prone
areas with a population of 60,000 inhabitants (Diagne, 2002).
The poor are located in peri-urban areas because the land value in these areas is low. These informal
settlements often suffer from a lack of basic services and infrastructure due to a lack of planning
standard and land-use plans.
The vulnerabilities of peri-urban areas are compounded by weak institutional structure at the local
level.

2.2.3.

Infrastructure

For a city, infrastructure is one of the key elements to support its development. Because more than 70%
of Dakars population lives in poverty (see Figure 5), we wanted to look into the implications for
development in the midst of climate change.

Development of the energy infrastructure is a key component of Senegals strategy to support the
economic development (World Bank, Energy Unit Sustainable Development Dpt, 2012 - ESSP).

Figure 5. Senegals poverty distribution. Dakar Metropolitan area has an incidence of more than 70% in poverty.
(Torres, 2011) Source: AICD Interactive Infrastructure Atlas for Senegal
(www.infrastructureafrica.org/aicd/tools/maps)

Hot Spots of Social Exposure Given by High Population Growth between 1999 and 2008 and High
Hazards Potentials. Source: World Bank, 2009
2.2.3.1.

Overview of energy sector

Dakar Metropolitan area consumes two thirds of Senegal's energy. As mentioned by Torres, electricity is
the second infrastructure constraint that weights most heavily on the productivity of private sector. A
deficient power infrastructure held growth back (Torres et al., 2011).
The intense urbanization led to major disruptions in efficiency of electricity supply due to rising
demand. Over the last decade, the demand almost doubled (from 234 to 449 MW). This capacity deficit
reached 40 to 50 MW in 2010, and as stressed out by Torres, if no action is taken, the supply/demand
gap could increase to 200-250 MW by 2013 (which represents a deficit of almost 50% of the projected
demand).
It comes clear that there is a massive need for improving generating capacity and increase the reliability
of electric services transmission & distribution networks.

In addition to an insufficient infrastructure, the worldwide energy crisis of 2009 revealed that the
energy sector was also costly (highly dependent on unreliable supply), and highly vulnerable to climate
hazards. The 2009 floods impacts on the energy sector represented $7 million of losses and damages,
while the recovery and construction needs have been estimated at $13 million (source: PDNA). When
rainfall of similar intensity than in 2009 are projected to occur every two years on average
(unfortunately this forecast has been realized. Dakar went through major flooding events at the end of
the summer, in August 2012), it is time to include in the recovery and the development plan for the
energy sector, some climate-induced risks parameters in order to avoid massive investments to be lost
after each storm surge.

2.2.3.2.

Energy infrastructure challenges

The changes to climate outlined in section 2.1 have multiple effects on energy infrastructure (See Figure
4). Table 2 identifies the high level risks to energy infrastructure:
Infrastructure components
Fuel processing facilities / storage

Key risks
Flooding of fuel supply infrastructure due to increased

of fuel / transport of fuel

Power generation (fossil and

storminess and sea level rise / sea surges

Flooding of fossil fuel power plants due to increased

renewables)

precipitation and sea level rise.

Loss of efficiency of fossil fuel power plants due to increased
temperatures.
Loss of efficiency of, and storm damage to, renewable energy

Energy distribution systems

sources due to increased storminess or drought.

Reduced capacity of distribution network due to increased
temperatures and precipitation/storminess.

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Table 2. Identification of the climate change risks incurred by the energy infrastructure (Adapted from URS,
2010, p.3)

The vulnerabilities of Dakar Energy sector are articulated around five categories as presented in Table
3. With these vulnerable factors in mind, we will try to develop some adaptation and mitigation
responses and articulate some policy mechanisms to improve the sector performance.
Category
Environmental
Economic
Technical

Vulnerabilities
System highly dependent on biomass
System highly dependent on imported crude oil
Current electric plants are located in flood zones
Most existing energy infrastructure (hydrocarbon storage) is under risk from
flood zones (See Figure 4)
Lack of diversity in the energy mix, compounded by the inadequate storage

Social

capacity and heavy reliability on imported crude oil

Populations low level of access to modern energy services and low energy
consumption (0.2 toe)
Infrastructure concentration detrimental to peri-urban areas

Institutional

Electricity demand > electricity supply

Lack of any regulatory framework for all available forms of energy

Systemic weakness of financial structures to support energy policy

Table 3. Vulnerabilities of the Energy Sector. Source: Diop, 2009

2.3.

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Senegal has chosen a programmatic approach to respond to climate change.

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H.E. Mbaye Ndiaye, the Minister of the Interior, declared in July 2012 that The world is, and will
continue to be, marked by climate change, rapid population growth, uncontrolled urbanization and
uncontrolled development of human and industrial activities. Disasters are therefore likely to be
more and more frequent and their occurrence causes immeasurable damage to the economy, social
welfare, sanitation, education and the human condition. This demonstrates that Senegal shows
political awareness and willingness for addressing climate-induced issues in order to support its
economic and social development.
However, a lot of challenges remain due to the complexity of the institutional framework and the need
for capacity and technical enhancement.

2.3.1.
2.3.1.1.

Overview of the agency currently involved in the climate change risks framework
Institutional capacity

The second generation of Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (2006-2010) promoted Disaster and Risk
Prevention and Management as a priority pillar (GFDRR, Country Note), and Senegal demonstrated its
commitment to prevention of natural risks and disaster management by building a complex governance
structure (see Table 4).
DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Institutional Framework (Agents)
High Commission for Civil Protection (consultative organ in the field of civil defense of the Minister of
Interior)
Directorate of Civil Protection (executive arm of the Minister of Interior for civil protection matters)
National Platform for the Prevention and the Reduction of Major Disaster Risk (established in 2008,
inter-ministerial committee)
Dedicated structure for flood issues (the form of governance varies from a crisis to another)
PREVENTION AND ADAPTATION
Institutional Framework (Agents)
National Program of Prevention and Reduction of Major Risks and Natural Disasters Management (led
by Minister of Interior through the Directorate of Civil Protection)

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National Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA) led by the Ministry of Environment
Municipal Development Agencies
(Agences de Developpement Municipale ADM) and
Regional Development Agencies
(Agences de Developpement Regionale ARM)

Table 4. Overview of the major programs to address the climate-induced risks. Source: GFDRR, Country Note
National authorities focus efforts to decentralize responsibilities to local governments. However the
local authorities often lack appropriate resources to invest in infrastructure improvement or
development. In addition, the planning tools such as land-use planning (that can also impact the urbanrural dynamic, ie informal settlements) remains under the control of the central government (Wang,
2009).

2.3.1.2.

Public and private sector, and civil society

In addition to the administrative agency described above, some other actors from the public or private
sector, including civil society, are involved in the climate change risks framework.
The scientific community through its research centers and institutes, along with the various NonGovernmental Organizations (NGOs) active in Dakar, contribute to disaster and risk reduction. Their
goal is to improve adaptation capacities and build adaptation networks. Usually their research is also
used to convince authorities to adopt concrete measures based on recommendations and best practices.
In addition NGOs have a key role in raising awareness at the local level. ADMs often work with
environment associations to develop a sharing, exchange and popularization framework on effective
risk prevention (Wang, 2009). (What are ADMS?)
Risk management mechanisms also exist in risky industries. For instance, SAR (African Oil Refinery
Company) put in place an operational risk control system that is tested every year; the company is also

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involved in the ORSEC Plan. SAR has equipment for sea spillage with a floating dams which helps
absorb the leaked waste (unique infrastructure in West Africa, located in Dakar Port Authority) (Wang,
2009).

2.3.2.

Challenges to integrate the climate change risks framework into development strategies

Institutional framework seems to work with respect to the awareness related to the climate change
issues. However, the capacity of institutions to face climate change confronts limitations.

2.3.2.1.

Fragmented governance, lack of coordination and weak resources

Institutional gaps
The agency structure, set up to respond to the climate change effects, presents a weak profile because of
the fragmentation of its program governance and the lack of clear accountability of each agent from
national to local management. The coordination among local agencies, as well as between local
agencies and agencies at other administrative levels falls short.
Local authorities have a role in the policy implementation more than in the local strategy design
because the national government centralizes most of the decision-making and the financing powers
(Wang, 2009). Also, the local populations, the civil society and the private sector are barely involved in
urban management.

Research, data and information gaps

This is important to note the lack of statistical data for monitoring and modeling the changes in sea
level and storm surge. For instance, while Senegal has shown decent capacity for the assessment and
monitoring of risks related to drought and locusts invasion, it remains weak for flooding and coastal

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erosion (GFDRR, Country Note). Gaps exist in flood prevention and response, including lack of detailed
forecasts and risk zone maps, and suitable flood vulnerability assessment methods and data collection
systems. This is a handicap in the formulation of strategies and decision-making at local level. The need
for the development of a Geographic Information System (GIS) for disaster and risk management,
which various stakeholders could use as vulnerability analysis and risk mapping tools, appears
obvious. (I THINK THE WORLD BANK GFDRR PRESENTS THIS, OUR MAPS COME FROM
MOSTLY THERE.) Can you explain what you mean? On one hand, it is difficult to develop mitigation
strategies without adequate monitoring systems helping to predict the occurrence of extreme events or
to assess possible changes in weather patterns. On the other hand, the lack of detailed vulnerability and
impact assessments studies make the formulation of adaptation strategies harder.

2.3.2.2.

Financing

The financing mechanisms to cope with disaster and risk management exist but are identified
inefficient because of their complexity.
Senegal implemented funds to respond to specific disasters, such as the Fund for Floods or the
National Solidarity Fund. However the operating procedure, allowing the emergency actors to
mobilize the funds, is heavy and limit the efficiency by delaying relief and emergency response
(GFDRR Country Note).
Senegal has shown success in securing international funding. However, there are no real transfer
mechanism is in place to allow the local authorities to benefit directly from it to implement their own
adaptation or mitigation policies.

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ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION RESPONSES

POLICY MECHANISMS

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