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WELCOME
The 2015 Energy, Resources and Marine Forecast has been designed to
provide essential information tailored to the intricacies of our specialized
industry. We highlight trends ranging from economic factors to safety
and security updates and provide expert advice to help ensure your
travel program thrives in 2015.
So, what does the 2015 landscape look like? With oil prices currently at a
five-year low, many companies are facing mounting cost pressure, looking
for new ways to operate more efficiently and re-evaluating their travel
policies. Data and proactive change management communication will be
key. We foresee organizations encouraging their travelers to consider the lowest logical airfare and
increasingly conducting business from new low-cost markets, making traveler safety and security a
continued key focus in 2015. Trusted supplier partnerships will be vital in making sure your travelers
receive the appropriate support on location; additionally, these partnerships help companies
secure good prices when negotiating room rates and air fares. Companies will increasingly deploy
virtual payment solutions as a secure, PCI-compliant way to manage hotel payments in high-risk
destinations, while new technologies will automate many of the time-consuming tasks buyers have
traditionally managed manually.
We hope this publication, in conjunction with our 2015 Global Travel Price Outlook, will prove
a valuable resource for you, both today as you plan for 2015 and throughout the year as you
continue to evaluate and optimize your travel program.
On behalf of our entire team, thank you for the continued trust you place in CWT Energy,
Resources & Marine.
Monisa Cline
Senior Vice President
CWT Energy, Resources & Marine
The 2015 Energy, Resources and Marine Forecast by CWT Energy, Resources & Marine is a supplement to the 2015 Global
Travel Price Outlook, which was produced jointly by Carlson Wagonlit Travel in partnership with the GBTA Foundation.
INDUSTRY INSIGHT
from our sponsor
As a strategic partner that provides
access to approximately 130 oil and gas
destinations worldwide, Delta Air Lines
is pleased to sponsor the 2015 Energy,
Resources & Marine Forecast.
Looking to 2015, the future of air travel will
continue to be shaped by innovation and
service. At Delta, well move forward with
plans to restructure our fleet, both to enhance
the traveler experience and to improve cost
efficiencies. To meet the specialized needs of the
energy industry, well leverage our presence in
multiple oil and gas markets in the Americas and
offer service from conveniently positioned hubs that
easily connect the transatlantic network to all major
European, Middle Eastern and African oil capitals.
As always, traveler safety and security will remain a
top priority at Delta. You can rely on Delta to mitigate
travel risks through a robust infrastructure of resources,
operational reliability, an expansive schedule offering
along with our airline partners and a premium suite of
customized services that are designed to enhance your
travelers experience throughout their journey.
Bob Somers, Vice President
Global Sales, Delta Air Lines
Global GDP
to reach
4%
2012
2013
2014
2015
ASIA-PACIFIC
SUBSAHARAN
AFRICA
MIDEASTN. AFRICA
EMERGING
EUROPE
WESTERN
EUROPE
LATIN
AMERICA
NORTH
AMERICA
2016-18
WORLD
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
*Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, IHS Global Insight, Rockport Analytics
SECTOR OUTLOOK
Growth in demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels is most significant in China, India and
the Middle East. Conversely, demand for liquid fuels in regions with well-established oil markets such
as the U.S. and Europe appears to have hit a plateau.
Since 2008, growth in North America has brought more than 4 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d)
of additional liquids supplies to market, according to U.S. Energy Information Administrations
International Energy Outlook 2014. In comparison, that increase has largely been offset by
geopolitical difficulties in Libya, Iran, South Sudan and Syria, which is causing supply disruptions.
The result is uncertainty around mid- and long-term projections.
However, with Exploration and Productions Price Perspective revealing the price of Brent crude fell
by nearly a third between June and December 2014, short-term predictions are that the disruptions
will not impact supply for some time.
Return to higher
sustained oil
prices
Progress with
extraction
technologies
Legislative
change
in Mexico
reverses the
trend of slowly
declining oil
production
SECTOR OUTLOOK
In the mining industry, a decade-long decline in productivity has resulted in commodity prices continuing
to soften, margins being cut and fewer areas to look to for profitability.
Global demand for energy is expected to increase 36% by 2025*, which is expected to create new
challenges due to falling ore grades.
As such, organizations are shifting internal structures and looking for new markets from which to
conduct business. Access to water and energy should remain a priority for companies establishing new
projects in African and South American destinations, as should gaining and maintaining support from
communities impacted by a project.
In 2015, we expect the shipping industry to remain highly competitive, with a forecasted alignment
between supply and demand stemming from an increasing but fragile return of consumer confidence.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Productivity improvement
Capital dilemmas
Social license to operate (SLTO)
Resource nationalism
Capital projects
Price and currency volatility
Infrastructure access
Sharing the benefits
Balancing talent requirements
Access to water and energy
*Source: Business risks facing mining and metals 20142015, Ernst and Young.
Additional information taken from the U.S. Energy Information Administrations International Energy Outlook 2014; Business
risks facing mining and metals 20142015, Ernst and Young; and A Price Perspective, Exploration & Production 2014.
5
think4photop / Shutterstock.com
6.9
5.1
4.5
4.4
4.2
3.8 3.7
3.2
2.7
2.4
1.4
1.3
1.6
0.4
0.1
TOKYO
SHANGHAI
RIYADH
RIO DE JANEIRO
PERTH
PARIS
NAIROBI
MUMBAI
MANILA
LUANDA
LAGOS
JAKARTA
HOUSTON
HONG KONG
HAMBURG
DUBAI
DAR ES SALAAM
COPENHAGEN
CARACAS
CAPE TOWN
CALGARY
BUENOS AIRES
ATHENS
0.3
-0.6 -0.5
-0.7
ANTWERP
1.0
1.0
STOCKHOLM
2.6
3.2
3.0
STAVANGER
3.2
SINGAPORE
3.3
ABERDEEN
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
TOP TIPS
Low-cost carriers still chase corporate
business Carefully consider if adding carriers
benefit or dilute your travel program.
9.1
7.2
6.2
6.0
4.5
4.2
4.3
4.2
3.4
2.2
0.9
0.3
-0.3
-1.8
RIYADH
RIO DE JANEIRO
PERTH
PARIS
NAIROBI
MUMBAI
MANILA
LAGOS
JAKARTA
HOUSTON
HONG KONG
HAMBURG
DUBAI
DAR ES SALAAM
COPENHAGEN
CARACAS
CAPE TOWN
CALGARY
BUENOS AIRES
ATHENS
ANTWERP
-2.0
0.2
-1.0
STOCKHOLM
1.0
1.9
STAVANGER
0.9
1.4
SINGAPORE
1.7
3.5
SHANGHAI
1.5
2.8
TOKYO
5.0
ABERDEEN
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
10
think4photop / Shutterstock.com
TOP TIPS
Compliance is still a key issue, particularly in new
markets. Virtual cards offer a secure, PCI-compliant
way to manage hotel payments.
11
Communicate effectively
Automate messaging
Use tools like CWT Program Messenger to deliver
targeted messages directly to travelers and help
them make informed, policy-compliant decisions.
By delivering messages before reservations are
ticketed, you can mitigate non-compliant travel.
2015 Energy, Resources and Marine Forecast
2015 RECOMMENDATIONS
To be more cost-effective,
consider amending your
policy to encourage travelers
to choose the lowest logical
airfares.
COMPLIANCE
Mitigate the risk of bribery and corruption issues
by making compliance a top priority. Manage
spend centrally where possible and partner only
with reputable suppliers.
VIRTUAL PAYMENT
DOOR-TO-DOOR BOOKING
Online full-trip bookings are
popular with energy, resources
and marine companies. Ask your
travel management company to
integrate non-traditional hotel
content, charter helicopters and
air transport in 2015.
MOBILE BOOKING
In the next two years, we expect
corporate travel reservations
being made on mobile devices
to double.* Approved, policycompliant apps like CWT To Go
will allow your travelers to book
seamless end-to-end trips.
13
Methodology
The projections in the 2015 Energy, Resources and Marine Forecast were formed from the combination of:
l A statistical model, developed by market and economic research firm, Rockport Analytics, that evaluates historical price behavior and forecasts future
price references
l The market-specific expertise and travel industry knowledge of CWT personnel worldwide
l Macroeconomic information sourced from Moodys Analytics, the International Monetary Fund Research Department, the United Nations and others
Projections were derived based on the transaction data of CWTs global client portfolio, including clients travel footprints and patterns, over the past six
years. Key macroeconomic and per-country indicators, such as current and expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the consumer price index,
unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR Global. All
air statistics represent Point of Origin and include all trip types (long and short haul/domestic, continental and intercontinental).
In addition to the modeling process, data from GBTAs Travel Manager Sentiment survey were analyzed. The online survey was conducted of corporate
travel managers in Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America and includes members and non-members of GBTA. Fielding of the survey
took place from February 12 to March 5, 2014. An email invitation was sent to 6,400 travel managers around the world. A total of 624 travel managers
completed the survey, for a response rate of 10%.
2014 CWT