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52-Week High
Trailing PE
Annual Div
ROE
LTG Forecast
1-Mo Return
138.15 (INR)
3.1M
196.00
8.5
8.50
21.8%
9.2%
-16.7%
December 3, 2014
INDIA NATIONAL Exchange
Market Cap
52-Week Low
Forward PE
Dividend Yield
Annual Rev
Inst Own
3-Mo Return
554.9B
123.10
7.7
6.2%
132.9B
12.3%
-22.8%
AVERAGE SCORE
Score Averages
Peers
-6M
-3M
-1M
-1W
10
SSLT
10
TATASTEEL
10
SAIL
NMDC
JSWSTEEL
Positive
Neutral
Negative
NOV-2011
NOV-2012
NOV-2013
NOV-2014
HIGHLIGHTS
1Y Trend
Buy
35 Analysts
Sell
Reduce
Hold
Buy
Strong
Buy
BUSINESS SUMMARY
NMDC Limited is an iron ore producer. The Company is engaged in the exploration of range of minerals, including iron ore, copper, rock phosphate,
lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite and beach sands. The Company is also investing in development
of renewable energy resources. The Company's subsidiaries include J&KMDC Limited, NMDC-CMDC Limited, NMDC SARL, NMDC Power Limited,
Legacy Iron Ore Ltd and Jharkhand National Mineral Development Corporation Limited.
Page 1 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
INDICATOR COMPONENTS
The AVERAGE SCORE combines the quantitative analysis of five widely-used investment decision making tools: Earnings,
Fundamental, Relative Valuation, Risk, and Price Momentum. A simple average of the underlying component ratings is normally
distributed to rank stocks on a 1-10 scale (10 being awarded to the most favorable). These factors may be evaluated differently using
alternative methodologies and the importance of individual factors varies across industries, market capitalization and investment styles.
Additional criteria should always be used to evaluate a stock.
Earnings
Fundamental
Relative Valuation
Risk
Price Momentum
PEER ANALYSIS
Currency in INR
PRICE MOMENTUM
Average
Score Ticker
VALUATION
Price
(12/03/14)
1-Mo
Return
3-Mo
Return
1-Yr
Return
FUNDAMENTAL
Market
Cap
Trailing
PE
Forward
PE
Dividend
Yield
ANALYSTS
Net
Margin
LTG I/B/E/S
Forecast Mean
# of
Analysts
SSLT
230.85
-12.0%
-17.6%
27.3%
685.9B
9.0
10.2
1.5%
2.2%
6.5% Hold
32
NMDC
138.15
-16.7%
-22.8%
0.7%
554.9B
8.5
7.7
6.2%
50.5%
9.2% Buy
35
TATASTEEL
463.75
-5.2%
-11.8%
13.2%
459.7B
15.3
8.8
2.2%
3.5%
20.6% Buy
44
SAIL
85.65
-1.2%
-0.7%
24.5%
367.8B
14.0
12.9
2.4%
4.6%
16.3% Reduce
41
JSWSTEEL
1,170.35
-6.6%
-9.6%
25.4%
290.3B
18.4
10.6
0.9%
5.4%
39.7% Buy
39
BHARATFORG
1,002.30
23.6%
19.2%
232.2%
224.6B
46.1
34.4
0.5%
7.1%
36.5% Buy
32
JINDALSTEL
153.70
-9.7%
-35.5%
-44.2%
128.7B
7.2
6.2
1.0%
8.6%
19.9% Hold
26
JINDALSAW
109.90
40.5%
41.1%
129.7%
30.7B
--
12.6
0.9%
2.7%
15.0% Buy
RATNAMANI
579.95
24.2%
38.5%
346.8%
27.5B
18.9
14.0
0.8%
11.0%
-- Buy
BHUSANSTL
101.30
-5.1%
5.4%
-78.9%
22.0B
47.9
10.3
0.5%
--
-- Reduce
MAHSEAMLES
273.15
-15.9%
-20.5%
52.1%
19.7B
19.4
14.1
2.2%
--
-- Buy
Average
391.73
1.5%
-1.3%
66.2%
255.6B
20.5
12.9
1.7%
10.6%
20.5% Buy
23.8
7.1
PEER COMPANIES
SSLT
TATASTEEL
SAIL
JSWSTEEL
BHARATFORG
JINDALSTEL
JINDALSAW
RATNAMANI
BHUSANSTL
MAHSEAMLES
Page 2 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
EARNINGS
Currency in INR
Earnings Score Averages
Peers
-6M
-3M
-1M
-1W
10
10
10
SSLT
NMDC
10
SAIL
TATASTEEL
JSWSTEEL
Positive
Neutral
Negative
NOV-2011
NOV-2012
NOV-2013
NOV-2014
1Y Trend
EARNINGS INDICATORS
Earnings Surprises
Estimate Revisions
Recommendation Changes
(33.3% weight)
(33.3% weight)
(33.3% weight)
JSWSTEEL
TATASTEE
SSLT
JSWSTEEL
NMDC
SAIL
SSLT
TATASTEE
NMDC
JSWSTEEL
SAIL
SSLT
SAIL
TATASTEE
NMDC
Last 4 Quarters
# Positive Surprises (> 2%)
# Negative Surprises (< -2%)
# In-Line (within 2%)
Avg Surprise
Last 4 Weeks
2
1
1
0.7%
# Up Revisions
# Down Revisions
Avg Up Revisions
Avg Down Revisions
HIGHLIGHTS
# Broker Upgrades
# Broker Downgrades
4
7
PRICE TARGET
The chart indicates where analysts predict the stock price will be within
the next 12 months, as compared to the current price.
240
210
MEAN
180
138.15
150
120
90.00
HIGH
LOW
Current Price
Page 3 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Price Target
Mean
182.00
High
235.00
Low
111.00
31.7%
# of Analysts
34
Estimates
8.000
7.000
Quarterly
NA
NA
6.000
Mean
--
--
High
--
--
Low
--
--
# of Analysts
--
--
4.830
5.000
4.230
3.950
4.000
3.000
3.330
09-13
12-13
03-14
Actuals
09-14
NA
NA
Estimates
24.00
Annual
22.00
HIGH
20.00
18.00
MEAN
16.00
15.95
18.060
High
19.200
20.910
Low
16.120
14.440
24
23
LOW
2013
2014
2015
Current
30 Days Ago
90 Days Ago
% Change (90 Days)
2016
17.740
# of Analysts
16.00
14.00
2015
Mean
2016
ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS
Q
--
Q
--
Y
2015
Y
2016
Price
Target
-----
-17.740
18.060
181.00
-17.810
18.300
187.00
-17.660
18.480
190.00
-0.5%
-2.3%
-4.7%
Next Expected Report Date: 02/11/15
Strong Buy
10
Buy
11
Hold
Reduce
Sell
EARNINGS SURPRISES
Comparing a company's actual earnings to the mean expectation of
analysts results in a difference referred to as a 'positive' or 'negative'
surprise. Research has shown that when a company reports a
surprise, it is often followed by more of the same surprise type.
Surprise Summary (Last 12 Quarters)
Surprise Type
Positive Quarters (> 2%)
Negative Quarters (< -2%)
In-Line Quarters (within 2%)
Amount
Percent
5
6
1
41.7%
50.0%
8.3%
Announce
Date
Period End
Date
Actual
EPS
Mean
EPS
Surprise
(%)
POSITIVE
IN-LINE
NEGATIVE
POSITIVE
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
10/31/14
05/30/14
02/10/14
10/24/13
08/07/13
05/29/13
09/30/14
03/31/14
12/31/13
09/30/13
06/30/13
03/31/13
4.230
4.830
3.950
3.330
3.970
3.690
4.100
4.750
4.116
3.264
3.510
4.260
3.2%
1.7%
-4.0%
2.0%
13.1%
-13.4%
ANNUAL REVENUE
A pattern of increasing sales in
conjunction with a rising EPS may
influence a buy recommendation, while
flat or falling sales and faltering
earnings may explain a sell
recommendation. A rising EPS with flat
or falling sales may result from
increased cost efficiency and margins,
rather than market expansion. This
chart shows the sales forecast trend of
all analysts and the highest and lowest
projections for the current and next
fiscal year.
Actuals
Estimates
200B
2015
2016
Mean
135.1B
141.8B
HIGH
High
141.4B
157.8B
MEAN
Low
127.3B
104.2B
12.1%
17.7%
22
22
180B
160B
140B
120.5B
120B
100B
112.6B
Forecasted Growth
107.0B
# of Analysts
LOW
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Page 4 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
FUNDAMENTAL
Fundamental Score Averages
Peers
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
SSLT
10
TATASTEEL
NMDC
10
JSWSTEEL
SAIL
Current
3Y Trend
FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS
Profitability
Debt
Earnings Quality
Dividend
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
JSWST
NMDC
SAIL
SSLT
TATAST
Revenue Growth
For year over year
ending 09/14
Gross Margin
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/14
Return on Equity
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/14
Net Margin
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/14
NMDC
SSLT
JSWST
TATAST
TATAST
SSLT
SAIL
SSLT
JSWST
TATAST
SAIL
SAIL
JSWST
NMDC
NMDC
17.8
1621.4
67.7
81.2
6.3%
58.8%
1.3
6.2%
HIGHLIGHTS
- NMDC's Fundamental Rating declined significantly over the last
quarter from 10 to 8. However, the current rating is still considerably
more bullish than the Metals & Mining Industry Group average of 4.7.
- Of the 225 firms within the Metals & Mining Industry Group, NMDC
LIMITED is among the 77 companies that pay a dividend. The stock's
dividend yield is currently 6.2%.
- The company's gross margin has been higher than its Industry Group
average for each of the past five years.
- Of the 148 firms within the Metals & Mining Industry Group that have
reported debt-to-capital, NMDC is among the 86 firm(s) whose
balance sheet is free of long-term debt.
- The company's days sales in inventory has been lower than its
Industry Group average for each of the past five years.
Page 5 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
RELATIVE VALUATION
Relative Valuation Score Averages
Peers
Positive
Neutral
Negative
NOV-2011
NOV-2012
NOV-2013
NOV-2014
-6M
-3M
-1M
-1W
TATASTEEL
10
10
Current
10
JSWSTEEL
SAIL
SSLT
NMDC
1Y Trend
Trailing PE
Forward PE
(50% weight)
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
JSWSTEEL
TATASTEE
SAIL
SSLT
NMDC
SSLT
TATASTEE
NMDC
TATASTEE
JSWSTEEL
NMDC
JSWSTEEL
SAIL
SAIL
SSLT
Price to Sales
4.1 Trailing PE
5-Yr Average
8.5 Forward PE
16.6
5-Yr Average
24.8
7.7
13.1
41% Discount
19.8
61% Discount
HIGHLIGHTS
- The company's Price to Sales, Trailing P/E, and Forward P/E multiples
are all currently at or near their 5-year lows.
- NMDC's current Trailing P/E of 8.5 represents a 55% Discount to its
Metals & Mining Group average.
- NMDC currently has a Valuation Rating of 7 which is significantly
above the S&P BSE SENSEX index average rating of 4.9.
Page 6 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
PRICE TO SALES
TRAILING PE
The most recent week's close price divided by the revenue per share.
Price to Sales:
5-Year Average:
BSE SENSEX Index Average:
Metals & Mining Group Average:
33
30
27
24
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
4.1
9.4
3.2
1.2
Trailing PE:
5-Year Average:
BSE SENSEX Index Average:
Metals & Mining Group Average:
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5-Yr Average
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
FORWARD PE
Forward PE:
5-Year Average:
BSE SENSEX Index Average:
Metals & Mining Group Average:
5-Yr Average
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Forward PEG:
5-Year Average:
BSE SENSEX Index Average:
Metals & Mining Group Average:
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
5-Yr Average
2010
8.5
16.6
24.8
18.7
FORWARD PEG
The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four
upcoming quarterly consensus estimates.
>50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
The most recent week's close price divided by the sum of the four most
recently reported quarterly earnings.
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.1
5-Yr Average
2010
Page 7 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
2011
2012
2013
2014
RISK
Risk Score Averages
NOV-2012
NOV-2013
NOV-2014
Peers
-6M
-3M
-1M
-1W
JSWSTEEL
10
10
10
10
Current
10
TATASTEEL
10
10
10
10
NMDC
10
SAIL
SSLT
1Y Trend
RISK INDICATORS
Magnitude Of Returns
Volatility
Beta (1-year)
Correlation
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
(25% weight)
TATAST
JSWST
NMDC
SAIL
SSLT
NMDC
TATAST
JSWST
SAIL
SSLT
JSWST
SAIL
SSLT
TATAST
NMDC
JSWST
NMDC
TATAST
SAIL
SSLT
Standard Deviation
Last 90 Days
2.14
Last 60 Months
10.58
Intra-Day Swing (Last 90 Days)
Last 90 Days Avg
3.2%
Last 90 Days Largest
8.8%
HIGHLIGHTS
0.96
0.71
1.84
0.00
0.00
1.51
RISK ANALYSIS
Peers
Best
Daily
Return
Last 90 Days
Worst
#
# Largest
Daily Days Days Intra-Day
Return
Up Down
Swing
Last 60 Months
Best
Worst
Monthly Monthly
Return
Return
NMDC
5.3%
-5.5%
22
36
8.8%
36.7%
-31.9%
JSWSTEEL
3.5%
-5.8%
31
26
9.1%
37.9%
-23.0%
SAIL
7.5%
-4.2%
25
33
9.4%
29.7%
-28.5%
SSLT
4.6%
-4.6%
25
32
14.2%
52.5%
-19.5%
TATASTEEL
4.5%
-4.2%
29
29
7.2%
34.4%
-21.2%
BSE SENSEX
1.9%
-1.6%
32
27
2.3%
11.7%
-10.6%
Page 8 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
PRICE MOMENTUM
Currency in INR
Price Momentum Score Averages
Peers
Positive
Neutral
Negative
NOV-2011
NOV-2012
NOV-2013
NOV-2014
-6M
-3M
-1M
-1W
SAIL
Current
7
JSWSTEEL
TATASTEEL
SSLT
NMDC
1Y Trend
Seasonality
(70% weight)
(30% weight)
SSLT
NMDC
SAIL
TATASTEE
JSWSTEEL
SAIL
JSWSTEEL
TATASTEE
SSLT
NMDC
PRICE PERFORMANCE
Daily close prices are used to calculate the
performance of the stock as compared to a
relevant index over five time periods.
3-Month
YTD
1-Year
CNX NIFTY
-1.9%
1-Week
1-Month
NMDC
0.7%
-16.7%
2.6%
-22.8%
5.2%
-2.6%
35.4%
NMDC
CNX NIFTY
138.15
8538
52-Week High
196.00
8588
52-Week Low
123.10
6001
- On 12/03/14, NMDC closed at 138.15, 29.5% below its 52week high and 12.2% above its 52-week low.
- NMDC shares are currently trading 11.8% below their 50-day
moving average of 156.57, and 14.5% below their 200-day
moving average of 161.56.
- The S&P CNX NIFTY is currently 0.6% below its 52-week high
and 42.3% above its 52-week low.
0.7%
37.7%
Page 9 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
dividend yield.
- Dividend Growth Rate: (Dividends per Share Previous Dividends per Share)
/ Previous Dividends per Share
- Dividend Funding: Dividends / Operating Cash Flow
- Dividend Coverage: (Pre-Tax Income + Interest Expense) / (Interest Expense
+ Dividends)
- Dividend Yield: Annual Dividends per Share / Current Market Price per Share
Indicator Trend
The fundamental indicator trend displays either quarterly scores over the past three
years or annual scores over the past six years, depending on the reporting periods
for the country. The best and worst scores can be easily determined from the
values shown on the chart for each quarter or year.
Relative Valuation
The Relative Valuation Rating is based on a combination of three component
factors: Price to Sales (50% weight), Trailing P/E (25% weight), and Forward P/E
(25% weight). After the weightings are considered to combine individual factors,
equal deciles are used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10,
with 10 being most favorable. These common valuation metrics are evaluated
against the overall market, the index, and the company's own historic 5-year
averages. A stock needs to have at least one of the three relative valuation factors
in order to receive a score.
Outstanding)
Valuation Averages
Negative values are excluded when calculating the averages. A maximum value of
100 is placed on Trailing P/E and Forward P/E, a maximum value of 5 is placed on
Forward PEG, and a maximum value of 20 is placed on Price to Sales when
calculating the averages. Higher values are rounded down to the maximum for the
averages.
Page 10 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
last 60 months, along with the average and largest intra-day stock swing.
Beta Measures the tendency of a securitys returns to respond to swings in the
market, based on the beta of the company versus the relevant index.
Correlation Determines how closely the returns of the stock and the relevant
index move together, measured over the last 90 days and last 60 months.
Risk Analysis
Price analysis for the company and the relevant index is provided over two time
periods. Daily analysis is provided for the last 90 days, whereas monthly statistics
are used for the last 60 months.
Price Momentum
The Price Momentum Rating is based on a combination of two technical
performance factors: relative strength (70% weight) and seasonality (30% weight).
After the weightings are considered to combine individual factors, equal deciles are
used to rank each stock across the market on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most
favorable. A stock needs to have data for the relative strength factor in order to
receive a score.
Relative Strength The relative strength of the company for the last 1 month, 3
month and next 2 months for the company and industry, over the past 10 years.
A lower industry rank indicates a higher return.
Price Performance
Daily close prices are used to calculate the price performance of the stock. The
performance of the relevant index is also displayed as a means of comparison.
DISCLAIMER
All information in this report is assumed to be accurate to the best of our ability.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The information contained in
this report is not to be construed as advice and should not be confused as any sort
of advice. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
their investment decision.
Page 11 of 11
2014 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.