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Agenda
India Opportunities for Gas Growth.
Current imports
Scope for growth
India;
Opportunities for Gas Growth
Increased production
Unconventional resources (CBM and shale),
Foreign acquisitions by domestic Indian companies
Reduced subsidies.
Hydro, 39.3
Nuclear, 4.8
Coal, 101
Natural Gas,
28.8
Total Installed
Capacity: 180.4 GW
Gas consumption
Domestic production
imports
Bcm of Gas
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GIIGNL
y-o-y change
(BCM)
5.69
7.693
9.789
10.326
11.536
11.19
15.64
16.78
(%)
n/a
35.2
27.4
5.3
11.91
-3.2
37.4
7.7
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australia
Portfolio
Qatar
Russia
U.S.A.
Indian Demand
Forecast Demand
Source: BENTEK
Hydro, 39.3
Natural Gas,
47.4
Coal, 181
Total Installed
Capacity: 282.4 GW
Existing Terminals
Dahej
Hazira
Dabhol
FACILITY
ONLINE
Dahej
2004
Kochi
Source: Platts Terminal Tracker Asia, BENTEK
CAPACITY
OPERATOR
11 mtpa
Petronet LNG
SUPPLY SOURCE
Qatar
Hazira
2005
2.5 mtpa
Shell India
Australia
Malaysia
Oman
Qatar
Dabhol
Kochi
2012
2013
5 mtpa
5 mtpa
Ratnagiri Gas
and Power
Petronet LNG
Nigeria
Qatar
10
2012 imports
120
Planned/Proposed
100
Under
Construction
80
60
Current import
capacity
40
20
0
Japan
Korea
China
India
ONLINE
2004
Hazira
Mundra
Dahej
2005
Dabhol
Kochi
Ennore
Mundra
Gangavaram LNG
2012
2013
unknown
2016
2017
CAPACITY
OPERATOR
5 mtpa
Petronet LNG
SUPPLY SOURCE
Qatar
2.5 mtpa
Shell India
Australia
Malaysia
Oman
Qatar
5 mtpa
5 mtpa
5 mtpa
5 mpta
5 mtpa
Ratnagiri Gas
and Power
Petronet LNG
Indian Oil Corp
Gujarat state Petroleum
Petronet LNG
Nigeria
Qatar
TBC
TBC
Hazira
Gangavaram LNG
Dabhol
Ennore
Kochi
Source: Platts Terminal Tracker Asia, BENTEK
12
India;
Domestic and International Challenges
1,400,000
$18.00
1,200,000
$16.00
$14.00
1,000,000
$12.00
800,000
$10.00
600,000
$8.00
$6.00
400,000
$4.00
200,000
$2.00
$0.00
Dabhol
Dahej
Hazira
Kochi
Regasification Capacity
$/MMBtu
14
Large appetite for gas but high price sensitivity. Administered prices continue to hinder
development of gas industry.
The Committee proposes a formula based on average netback price of Indian term LNG
imports, netbacks to Japanese JCC LNG price and the average gas price at HH and NBP.
Effective from 01 April 2014, the formula will be revised each quarter and the calculation will
be based on the average price of the 4 quarters with a lag of 1 quarter; e.g; the price in AprilJuly 2014 will take into account the average price for the last 4 quarters in 2013
ONGC; increase of $1/MMBtu on $4.20/MMBtu could add Rupees 20-21 billion post tax
profit.
Oil India; increase of $1/MMBtu on $4.20/MMBtu could add Rupees 4 billion net profit
Already a public Interest Litigation (PIL) has filed by opposition politician. Response of
Government and Reliance Industries is expected by 6th Sept.
15
16
17
Platts JKM
35
$/MMBtu
30
25
20
15
10
5
3.5
$/MMBtu
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
Market Reports
Source: Platts
Assessment Date
18
Spot LNG;
2013 A New Price Curve Emerging
236 million mt
Source: GIIGNL
20
MT
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Market Reports
Industry news, analysis
Brunei Qatar
Yemen Algeria Egypt
France
H1 2012 Imports
Source: BENTEK
USA
Nigeria
H1 2013 Imports
21
Brunei
France
3,000,000
Algeria
2,500,000
Egypt
Yemen
2,000,000
Nigeria
1,500,000
Qatar
1,000,000
500,000
Market Reports
0
Dahej
Source: BENTEK
Hazira
Dabhol
22
$/MMBtu
16
2009
14
2010
12
2011
2012
10
2013
8
6
4
2
Jan
Source: Platts
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
23
24
17
Jun
Jul
Sep
Aug
16.5
16
$/MMBtu
15.5
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
4/16/2013
5/16/2013
6/16/2013
7/16/2013
8/16/2013
Assessment Date
Source: Platts
Platts JKM
25
26
Key Takeaways
Continues to rely on LNG imports
More investment in infrastructure is required for both
domestic and imported gas (both LNG and pipeline).
Proposed NBP/HH/JCC LNG linkage could use review.
Must sign more term contracts if it is to lock in supplies for
the end of the decade.
27
Phase 2:
DES West India stand-alone
assessment launched August 1
2011 same month as current
JKM and based on MOC
methodology.
29
Source: Platts
30
Thank you