THAILAND

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Strategy Snapshot
Earnings Revision Trend

Positive on infrastructure-oriented sectors

140

Action and recommendation

120

Last week, consensus turned negative again on its 2015 earnings forecasts for

100

SET 2015

Mar-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Jul-14

SET 2014

Aug-14

Jun-14

Apr-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Feb-14

80

SET 2016

EPS Growth 2015

The implied SET Index target increased slightly, from 1706.57 to 1709.68
EPS
Growth

EPS
105.0
104.0

11.5%

104.10

103.0

12.0%

11.2%
103.82

11.0%

10.5%
103.12

102.0

10.1%

9.9%

102.73 102.56

10.0%
9.0%

101.0
-4W

-3W

-2W

EPS

-1W

13-Mar

1,800

Among the stocks that consensus viewed more bullishly both in terms of earnings

and target price were ITD, SEAFCO and SCC.

Key investment points

Tracking Fundamental Momentum (TFM) is a quantitative analysis report that

This week we review the stocks in our universe. We add AEONTS, ASK, BA,

1,600

BTSGIF, CBG, IFEC, MBKET, MK, MONO, MTLS, PYLON, RCL, SAMTEL, SAPPE,
SEAFCO, SMT, TASCO, TK and TRUEIF and remove KBS, NWR, PF, PTG, RML,
STA, SYMC, TAE, THRE and TPIPL.

Implied SET
IndexTarget

1,400

1,000

(+0.18% WoW) on the back of upgrades of the Finance (TK, SAWAD, MBKET),
Construction Materials (SCC, DCC) and Construction services (ITD, SEAFCO, TTCL)
sectors.

monitors the changes in consensus earnings and target-price forecasts for

companies listed on the Thai stock market on a weekly basis. We use data that
has at least 3 sources, resulting in a total of 149from 140 firms in our universe.

EPS Growth

SET Index Target

1,200

Thai-listed companies, with a downward revision of 0.17% WoW to Bt103.46 per

share from Bt103.75. As a result, 2015E EPS growth declined to 9.9% from 10.1%
in the previous week (2014 EPS of Bt93.34). Looking at individual sectors,
consensus raised 2015E earnings for the Construction services (CK), Construction
Materials (DCC, SCC), and Insurance (BLA) sectors. Meanwhile, estimated
earnings for the Agribusiness (GFPT), Food (CPF, CBG) and Transportation (THAI,
PSL) sectors were all downgraded.

+1 SD From avg
discount from
Implied SET Index
Target

800

Earnings Revisions

SET Index

Last week (9-13 Mar), the overall earnings revision trend for Thai-listed

-1 SD From avg
discount from
Implied SET Index
Target

600
400
200
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Remark: Implied SET index target derived from target price

estimated by consensus, from a total 140 firms in our universe.

companies decreased, with earnings forecasts for 2015 declining by 0.17% to

Bt102.56 per share from Bt102.73 in the previous week. As a result, 2015E EPS
growth slowed to 9.9% from 10.1% (Fig 1).
2015E earnings for the Construction services, Construction Materials, and

Insurance sectors were all viewed more positively last week. The better earnings
outlook for the Construction services sector was led by CK (+5.70% WoW). In the
Construction Materials sector, consensus was more bullish on DCC (+1.17%
WoW) and SCC (+0.45% WoW), while in the Insurance sector BLA saw a positive
revision (+0.34% WoW) (Figs 3,5).
Looking at individual stocks, WORK, WHA, BEAUTY, MK, TRUE and AH were all

revised up more than 2% (Fig 5).

The Agribusiness, Food and Transportation sectors were viewed more negatively

Analyst (s)

Auayporn Meesiln

Auayporn.m@kasikornsecurities.com

17 March 2015
Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited

by consensus with lower EPS estimates from the previous week. The Agribusiness
and Food sector was pulled down again by GFPT, CPF and CBG. Meanwhile,
consensus took a more negative view of the Transportation sector's earnings
outlook, specifically those of THAI and PSL (Figs 3, 5).
Looking at individual stocks, SVI, JAS, SC and ITD were all revised down more

than 3% (Fig 5).

Kasikorn Securities Public Company Limited may be the issuer of structured notes on the securities which are the constituents of SET50 index.
Please refer to the important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of this document. This publication is intended for the benefits of non-institutional clients of Kasikorn Securities pcl.

Target Price Revision

Last week (9-13 Mar), the implied SET Index target rose by 0.18% to 1709.68

from 1706.57 in the previous week (Fig 2).

Interestingly, the SET Index (green line in the left figure) has never traded above

the implied SET Index target (orange line). Under normal market conditions, the
SET Index trades at an average discount (grey line), or slightly under or above the
line. It has risen to the upper bound (+1SD) when investors have viewed the
market optimistically and slumped to the lower bound (-1SD) when they have
viewed it pessimistically.
The SET Index is currently at 1515.57 and the upper bound (+1SD) is at

1,621.37(Fig 2), with the remaining upside at 6.98% (Fig 2) suggesting limited
upside for stock prices. However, we also see a limited downside risk in the SET
Index at the average discount line (1,429.80) and do not expect the index to trade
at the lower bound (-1SD), or at 1238.23 pts. We can see this on the first page
(Strategy Snapshot, Pic 3).
Target prices for the Finance, Construction Materials and Construction services

sectors were all raised. The improved outlook for the Finance sector was driven by
TK, SAWAD and MBKET. The Construction Materials sector was led up by SCC and
DCC, while in the Construction services sector, ITD, SEAFCO and TTCL paced the
upward revisions (Figs 3, 5).
Looking at individual stocks, TRUE, SVI, RS, BEAUTY and CBG stood out, with

target-price upgrades of more than 3%. Note that SVI's earnings were revised
down (Fig 5).
The sectors that had their target prices cut by consensus from the previous week

were Agribusiness, Food and Banking. The Agribusiness sectors downward

revision was focused on GFPT. The Food sector was led down by CPF while in the
Banking sector, SCB was downgraded further (Figs 3, 5).
In terms of individual stocks, SINGER, MK, SRICHA, STPI, THAI and PSL stood out

with target-price downgrades of more than 4% (Fig 5).

Connection between target price and earnings

Stock (target prices +, earnings+)
We believe stocks that had both their earnings and target prices revised up should outperform the

market in the medium term.

TRUE, RS, and BEAUTY all saw upward adjustments of their target prices and earnings from the

previous week and remaining upside. TRUEs target price increased 6.37% WoW (from Bt11.49 to
Bt12.22), while its earnings were raised 2.02% WoW. RSs target price was raised by 5.09% WoW
(from Bt19.00 to Bt19.97) and earnings by 0.83% WoW. Meanwhile, BEAUTYs target price was
raised by 4.32% (from 42.97 to 44.83) and earnings by 2.33% (Fig 6).

Stocks (target prices +, earnings 0)

Among the stocks whose target prices were raised while their earnings were left unchanged were

SEAFCO, TK and SAWAD. Their fair prices were revised up by 9.68%, 9.15% and 7.15%,
respectively (Fig 6).

Stocks(target prices -, earnings -)

THAI, CPF, PSL, JAS and GFPT saw downward adjustments of both their target prices and earnings

from the previous week (Fig 6).

In conclusion, this week we see the most positive momentum in ITD, SEAFCO and SCC,
and the most negative momentum in THAI, CPF, PSL, JAS and GFPT.

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 1 Thailand Earnings Revisions 2015E

Fig 2 SET Index Target and Upside

Date

SET Index

SET Target

Upside

SET

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

13-Mar

EPS

109.26

104.43

103.12

102.56

9-Mar-15

1559.71

1706.57

9.42%

-1.49

-4.42

-1.25

-0.54

13-Mar-15

1541.55

1709.68

10.91%

SET

20-Feb

27-Feb

6-Mar

13-Mar

Date

Upper

Average

Lower

EPS

103.82

103.12

102.73

102.56

9-Mar-15

1618.41

1427.19

1235.98

-0.17

13-Mar-15

1621.37

1429.80

1238.23

% MTD Change

% WoW Change

-0.27

-0.67

-0.38

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

Fig 3 Earnings &Target Price Revisions by Sector

Target Price
WoW
FIN
CONMT
CONS
COMUN
HELTH
ETRON
INS
PROP
TRANS
HHOLD
STEEL
ENERG
COM
PETRO
ENTER
AUTO
HOT
BANK
FOOD
AGRI

1.99%
1.44%
1.39%
0.76%
0.71%
0.30%
0.17%
0.08%
0.07%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.09%
-0.16%
-0.19%
-0.24%
-0.28%
-0.51%
-0.66%
-1.55%
-3.35%

Fig 4 Scatter Plot by Sector

Earning

MoM
FIN
15.95%
CONMT
3.58%
HELTH
3.30%
ETRON
2.12%
CONS
1.68%
ENTER
1.60%
COMUN
1.32%
TRANS
1.30%
HHOLD
0.80%
PROP
0.08%
ENERG
-0.31%
BANK
-0.88%
COM
-1.76%
PETRO
-2.03%
AUTO
-2.09%
HOT
-2.34%
INS
-3.17%
FOOD
-4.11%
STEEL
-14.68%
AGRI
-19.23%

WoW
CONS
CONMT
INS
HOT
PROP
ENERG
HHOLD
STEEL
ETRON
FIN
AUTO
BANK
HELTH
COMUN
PETRO
ENTER
COM
TRANS
FOOD
AGRI

EPS %chg
1.5%

MoM
0.55%
0.41%
0.30%
0.30%
0.05%
0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.02%
-0.04%
-0.15%
-0.32%
-0.36%
-0.45%
-0.53%
-0.66%
-0.68%
-0.96%
-1.17%
-2.02%

FIN
ETRON
CONMT
STEEL
ENERG
PROP
HELTH
COMUN
BANK
CONS
TRANS
COM
HOT
HHOLD
INS
AUTO
PETRO
ENTER
FOOD
AGRI

2.49%
1.71%
0.78%
0.00%
-0.10%
-0.13%
-0.59%
-0.65%
-0.78%
-1.02%
-2.02%
-2.42%
-2.49%
-3.06%
-3.17%
-3.63%
-3.76%
-4.26%
-6.22%
-12.90%

Source: Bloomberg and KS, 13 March 2015

CONS
0.5%

INS

HOT

CONMT

PROP
ENERG

TP%chg

ETRON

AUTO
BANK

HELTH

PETRO

-0.5%

ENTER

COMUN

COM
TRANS

-1.5%
-1.5%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

Source: Bloomberg and KS, 13 March 2015

Fig 5 Thailand Revisions: TOP 20 Positive and Negative Revisions

Target Price
WoW
ITD
10.49%
SEAFCO
9.68%
TK
9.15%
SAWAD
7.15%
TRUE
6.37%
SVI
5.36%
MBKET
5.11%
RS
5.09%
BEAUTY
4.32%
CBG
3.68%
TTCL
3.64%
TRUEIF
2.84%
SAPPE
1.77%
ANAN
1.73%
SCC
1.70%
BTSGIF
1.65%
MAJOR
1.48%
SC
1.47%
MAKRO
1.42%
DCC
1.40%

MoM
WORK
57.29%
TK
52.34%
SAWAD
32.94%
KAMART
32.70%
SVI
26.59%
MTLS
24.45%
KTC
19.33%
JMART
17.88%
BMCL
15.00%
SEAFCO
14.71%
TTCL
14.58%
RS
14.21%
ITD
14.08%
TRUE
12.88%
BEAUTY
10.88%
IRPC
9.55%
ROJNA
8.61%
MAJOR
8.31%
ASK
8.26%
ANAN
6.99%

WoW
SINGER
-10.13%
MK
-10.05%
SRICHA
-7.80%
STPI
-6.08%
THAI
-5.51%
CPF
-5.23%
PSL
-4.44%
JAS
-3.76%
GFPT
-3.35%
AIT
-3.30%
AH
-2.46%
BEC
-1.99%
SCB
-1.88%
PYLON
-1.78%
THANI
-1.64%
TICON
-1.39%
MCOT
-1.26%
THREL
-1.26%
ASP
-1.22%
CPALL
-1.17%

Earning
MoM
SIM
-21.45%
GFPT
-19.23%
SINGER
-17.70%
GRAMMY
-17.27%
SRICHA
-15.47%
TMT
-14.68%
CPF
-12.63%
STPI
-12.55%
THAI
-12.14%
TTA
-11.59%
MK
-10.05%
SAMTEL
-8.70%
BTSGIF
-8.43%
PSL
-6.51%
TICON
-5.74%
PCSGH
-5.36%
LHBANK
-5.17%
THREL
-4.76%
BEC
-4.53%
ROBINS
-4.38%

WoW
WORK
WHA
CK
BEAUTY
MK
TRUE
AH
AAV
ANAN
KCE
MTLS
DCC
AP
RS
KKP
TISCO
CENTEL
SCC
BLA
KBANK

MoM
8.71%
5.73%
5.70%
2.33%
2.13%
2.02%
2.01%
1.90%
1.86%
1.64%
1.26%
1.17%
1.02%
0.83%
0.65%
0.52%
0.51%
0.45%
0.34%
0.15%

RCL
IRPC
TRUE
SMT
BMCL
ESSO
PYLON
TK
WORK
CK
AAV
BJCHI
MBKET
TVO
BEAUTY
SVI
SIRI
SAWAD
AP
KTC

32.24%
28.57%
23.93%
22.03%
16.13%
14.89%
13.59%
12.12%
11.22%
10.97%
10.59%
6.20%
6.16%
5.92%
5.72%
5.69%
5.56%
5.00%
4.45%
4.37%

THAI
PSL
SVI
JAS
SC
ITD
CPF
BCH
GUNKUL
MAKRO
TICON
GFPT
BEC
ASP
STANLY
SCB
DTAC
ERW
CBG
BH

WoW
-30.57%
-18.31%
-5.11%
-4.91%
-3.76%
-3.38%
-3.28%
-2.95%
-2.88%
-2.71%
-2.13%
-2.02%
-1.73%
-1.50%
-1.29%
-1.15%
-1.09%
-0.88%
-0.85%
-0.82%

THAI
GRAMMY
MONO
PSL
LOXLEY
SIM
GFPT
CPF
OFM
DRT
GLOBAL
TICON
MCOT
WHA
JAS
TUF
PCSGH
SITHAI
TTCL
KSL

MoM
-12700.00%
-43.69%
-19.00%
-18.31%
-16.30%
-12.98%
-12.90%
-12.03%
-10.54%
-10.42%
-10.06%
-9.96%
-9.09%
-8.09%
-7.19%
-6.51%
-6.25%
-6.19%
-5.84%
-5.77%

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 6 WoW Changes in EPS and Target prices

Earning

Stock
SINGER
MK
SRICHA
STPI
AIT
AH
PYLON
THANI
MCOT
THREL
SIM
LH

Target Price (-/0) Earning (+/0)

TP
EPS
Stock
TP
-10.13%
0.00% CENTEL
-0.64%
-10.05%
2.13% THCOM
-0.62%
-7.80%
0.00% KBANK
-0.48%
-6.08%
0.00% KKP
-0.37%
-3.30%
0.00% PTT
-0.32%
-2.46%
2.01% IVL
-0.20%
-1.78%
0.00% TMB
-0.16%
-1.64%
0.00% BJCHI
-0.06%
-1.26%
0.00% WORK
0.00%
-1.26%
0.00% MINT
0.00%
-1.10%
0.00% WHA
0.00%
-0.83%
0.00%

EPS
0.51%
0.10%
0.15%
0.65%
0.10%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
8.71%
0.15%
5.73%

Stock
TRUE
RS
BEAUTY
ANAN
SCC
DCC
AP

Target
TP
6.37%
5.09%
4.32%
1.73%
1.70%
1.40%
1.22%

Price (+) Earning (+)

EPS
Stock
TP
2.02% CK
1.07%
0.83% TCAP
0.73%
2.33% AAV
0.73%
1.86% TISCO
0.64%
0.45% BLA
0.34%
1.17% MTLS
0.25%
1.02%

EPS
5.70%
0.07%
1.90%
0.52%
0.34%
1.26%

TP

Stock
THAI
CPF
PSL
JAS
GFPT
BEC
SCB
TICON
ASP

Target Price (-) Earning (-)

TP
EPS
Stock
TP
-5.51%
-30.57% CPALL
-1.17%
-5.23%
-3.28% ROBINS
-1.00%
-4.44%
-18.31% DTAC
-0.79%
-3.76%
-4.91% BBL
-0.55%
-3.35%
-2.02% KTB
-0.30%
-1.99%
-1.73% EGCO
-0.23%
-1.88%
-1.15% PTTGC
-0.19%
-1.39%
-2.13% BCP
-0.17%
-1.22%
-1.50% ADVANC
-0.13%

EPS
-0.46%
-0.24%
-1.09%
-0.48%
-0.04%
-0.05%
-0.63%
-0.08%
-0.07%

Stock
ITD
SEAFCO
TK
SAWAD
SVI
MBKET
CBG
TTCL
TRUEIF
SAPPE
BTSGIF
MAJOR
SC
MAKRO
TOP
BDMS
GLOBAL
QH
HMPRO

Target Price (+/0) Earning (-/0)

TP
EPS
Stock
TP
10.49%
-3.38% BAY
0.53%
9.68%
0.00% BH
0.50%
9.15%
0.00% SPALI
0.42%
7.15%
0.00% AOT
0.40%
5.36%
-5.11% BTS
0.39%
5.11%
0.00% PS
0.37%
3.68%
-0.85% HEMRAJ
0.27%
3.64%
0.00% IRPC
0.25%
2.84%
-0.36% CPN
0.24%
1.77%
0.00% STEC
0.22%
1.65%
0.00% BIGC
0.15%
1.48%
0.00% BCH
0.11%
1.47%
-3.76% INTUCH
0.11%
1.42%
-2.71% LPN
0.04%
1.05%
0.00% STANLY
0.00%
0.86%
0.00% GUNKUL
0.00%
0.72%
-0.32% CHG
0.00%
0.71%
-0.49% ERW
0.00%
0.61%
-0.31%

EPS
0.00%
-0.82%
0.00%
-0.13%
0.00%
-0.09%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.05%
0.00%
-0.50%
-2.95%
-0.72%
-0.71%
-1.29%
-2.88%
-0.19%
-0.88%

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable consensus EPS

Sector
Agribusiness
GFPT
Automotive
STANLY
SAT
AH
PCSGH
Banking
BBL
KBANK
SCB
TISCO
KKP
TCAP
BAY
KTB
TMB
LHBANK
Commerce
BIGC
ROBINS
BJC
OFM
CPALL
SINGER
MC
MAKRO
BEAUTY
MEGA
GLOBAL
HMPRO
KAMART
LOXLEY
Communication
ADVANC
DTAC
INTUCH
TRUEIF
AIT
SAMART
THCOM
SAMTEL
JMART
JAS
SIM
TRUE
Construction Materials
SCC
SCCC
TASCO
DCC
DRT
Construction Services
BJCHI
SRICHA
STPI
TTCL
STEC
SEAFCO
CK
ITD

20-Feb-15
1.64
1.64
1.66
16.76
1.82
1.75
0.85
2.58
20.22
21.39
17.17
5.75
4.17
4.41
2.70
2.62
0.23
0.10
1.08
10.08
2.12
1.32
1.85
1.55
1.28
1.06
1.26
1.21
0.81
0.33
0.32
0.35
0.23
1.68
13.75
4.98
5.30
0.84
3.53
1.96
2.05
1.43
0.93
0.61
0.23
0.16
7.12
32.83
24.04
6.79
0.34
0.38
0.89
3.99
3.40
2.03
1.53
1.03
0.96
0.80
0.15

27-Feb-15
1.59
1.59
1.64
16.56
1.82
1.75
0.82
2.58
20.41
21.35
17.10
5.75
4.12
4.41
2.68
2.61
0.23
0.10
1.07
10.08
2.08
1.33
1.66
1.52
1.28
1.06
1.26
1.21
0.84
0.31
0.32
0.35
0.23
1.67
13.76
4.98
5.29
0.84
3.53
1.92
2.03
1.46
0.91
0.61
0.23
0.16
7.13
32.89
24.04
6.79
0.34
0.38
0.90
3.99
3.36
2.03
1.53
1.02
0.96
0.88
0.15

6-Mar-15
1.49
1.49
1.61
16.56
1.82
1.64
0.80
2.57
20.41
21.36
17.06
5.75
4.12
4.41
2.61
2.62
0.23
0.10
1.07
10.08
2.08
1.33
1.66
1.53
1.28
1.05
1.26
1.25
0.88
0.31
0.32
0.34
0.19
1.68
13.70
4.94
5.29
0.84
3.53
1.92
2.03
1.46
0.91
0.61
0.23
0.20
7.14
33.02
24.04
6.79
0.34
0.34
0.87
3.99
3.26
1.92
1.44
1.02
0.93
0.84
0.15

13-Mar-15
1.46
1.46
1.60
16.35
1.82
1.68
0.80
2.57
20.32
21.39
16.87
5.78
4.15
4.42
2.61
2.61
0.23
0.10
1.06
10.03
2.07
1.33
1.66
1.52
1.28
1.05
1.22
1.28
0.88
0.31
0.32
0.34
0.19
1.68
13.69
4.88
5.25
0.84
3.53
1.92
2.03
1.46
0.91
0.58
0.23
0.20
7.17
33.17
24.04
6.79
0.35
0.34
0.87
3.99
3.26
1.92
1.44
1.02
0.93
0.89
0.14

%MOM
-12.90
-12.90
-3.63
-2.43
-0.71
-4.29
-6.25
-0.78
-0.28
0.01
-1.77
0.38
-2.17
-0.16
-3.22
0.04
0.44
0.00
-2.42
-0.26
-2.45
0.68
-10.54
-2.94
-4.71
-1.32
-3.55
5.72
3.77
-10.06
-1.85
-2.03
-16.30
-0.65
-0.57
-3.59
-1.56
-0.36
0.68
-3.71
-0.83
-4.33
-1.83
-7.19
-12.98
23.93
0.78
1.03
0.00
0.00
0.58
-10.42
-1.02
6.20
-4.21
-5.52
-5.84
-2.67
-3.04
10.97
-2.05

2016
1.65
1.65
1.84
18.87
2.00
1.86
0.94
2.88
22.10
24.33
18.56
6.37
4.98
4.80
3.11
2.94
0.26
0.11
1.28
11.29
2.53
1.56
2.01
1.94
1.54
1.21
1.47
1.58
0.91
0.38
0.37
0.38
0.24
1.94
15.75
5.41
6.07
0.97
3.85
2.20
2.34
1.60
1.00
0.63
0.26
0.29
7.90
36.55
26.06
7.63
0.38
0.39
0.96
4.20
3.20
1.87
2.06
1.15
0.97
1.05
0.17

%YoY
12.96
12.96
14.73
15.41
10.12
10.93
18.62
12.10
8.79
13.75
10.06
10.10
20.00
8.76
19.17
12.39
14.04
7.14
20.40
12.56
22.10
17.50
21.45
27.60
20.39
15.69
20.21
23.67
3.75
21.41
16.35
10.95
24.74
15.79
15.00
10.74
15.64
16.17
9.18
14.59
15.21
9.81
9.20
7.75
13.60
44.55
10.06
10.18
8.40
12.32
10.40
14.24
9.62
5.26
-1.84
-2.66
43.73
12.82
4.97
17.64
20.98

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable consensus EPS

Sector
Energy
PTT
PTTEP
EGCO
GLOW
TOP
RATCH
BCP
BANPU
SPCG
ESSO
GUNKUL
DEMCO
EA
TTW
CKP
IRPC
Entertain
BEC
MCOT
WORK
MAJOR
RS
VGI
MONO
GRAMMY
Electronic
DELTA
KCE
HANA
SMT
SVI
Finance
AEONTS
KTC
ASK
MBKET
SAWAD
TK
THANI
ASP
MTLS
Food
TUF
OISHI
M
TVO
CPF
SAPPE
KSL
CBG
MINT
PM
ICHI
CFRESH
Health Care
BDMS
BH
CHG
BCH

20-Feb-15
3.55
31.77
8.96
14.89
5.98
4.27
4.80
3.73
1.40
2.32
0.40
0.86
0.96
0.82
0.74
0.42
0.20
0.69
2.40
0.88
0.62
1.44
0.60
0.33
0.10
-0.52
2.31
5.17
3.86
3.16
0.89
0.30
1.10
10.37
7.57
2.31
2.06
1.08
0.55
0.34
0.46
0.39
1.41
1.44
3.31
2.63
1.99
1.75
1.51
0.50
1.41
1.39
0.81
1.05
0.96
0.66
0.50
1.41
1.39
0.81

27-Feb-15
3.55
31.64
8.96
14.89
5.98
4.36
4.79
3.76
1.40
2.33
0.40
0.87
0.96
0.82
0.74
0.41
0.20
0.67
2.39
0.82
0.62
1.46
0.61
0.33
0.08
-0.71
2.32
5.20
3.87
3.17
0.89
0.32
1.11
10.37
7.73
2.31
2.06
1.10
0.62
0.34
0.46
0.40
1.40
1.43
3.31
2.62
1.99
1.75
1.51
0.48
1.41
1.36
0.81
1.05
0.96
0.66
0.48
1.41
1.36
0.81

6-Mar-15
3.55
31.55
8.96
14.89
5.98
4.42
4.79
3.76
1.40
2.33
0.43
0.87
0.94
0.84
0.74
0.41
0.20
0.67
2.37
0.80
0.62
1.46
0.60
0.34
0.08
-0.74
2.35
5.20
3.91
3.15
1.08
0.33
1.12
10.37
7.73
2.31
2.19
1.11
0.62
0.34
0.47
0.40
1.33
1.35
3.31
2.62
1.99
1.59
1.56
0.47
1.41
1.35
0.81
1.04
0.96
0.66
0.47
1.41
1.35
0.81

13-Mar-15
3.55
31.58
8.96
14.88
5.98
4.42
4.79
3.75
1.40
2.33
0.43
0.84
0.94
0.84
0.74
0.41
0.20
0.66
2.33
0.80
0.67
1.46
0.60
0.34
0.08
-0.74
2.35
5.20
3.98
3.15
1.08
0.32
1.12
10.37
7.73
2.31
2.19
1.11
0.62
0.34
0.46
0.40
1.32
1.35
3.31
2.62
1.99
1.54
1.56
0.47
1.40
1.35
0.81
1.04
0.96
0.66
0.47
1.40
1.35
0.81

%MOM
-0.10
-0.59
-2.66
-0.51
0.00
3.83
-0.17
0.54
-1.82
0.26
14.89
-1.64
-1.05
2.20
-0.80
-5.71
28.57
-4.26
-3.00
-9.09
11.22
1.18
0.00
3.08
-19.00
-43.69
1.71
0.66
2.63
-0.44
22.03
5.69
2.49
-0.05
4.37
0.00
6.16
5.00
12.12
0.00
-0.65
3.08
-6.22
-6.51
0.00
-0.23
5.92
-12.03
2.78
-5.77
-0.85
-3.23
0.37
0.19
0.00
-0.59
-0.18
-0.40
-2.06
-5.40

2016
4.09
35.83
10.28
16.04
6.03
5.01
5.53
3.97
2.12
2.85
0.53
1.56
1.08
1.36
0.71
0.47
0.30
0.83
2.51
0.85
0.75
1.68
0.90
0.40
0.18
0.06
2.49
5.64
4.45
3.42
n.m.
0.39
1.30
11.76
8.77
2.55
2.29
1.47
0.82
0.42
0.51
0.52
1.51
1.56
1.80
2.97
2.09
1.87
1.78
0.43
1.60
1.58
0.89
1.15
1.22
0.76
0.65
4.92
0.61
0.33

%YoY
15.27
13.45
14.75
7.78
0.87
13.34
15.40
5.65
51.71
22.34
21.76
85.04
15.32
62.29
-4.05
13.80
48.99
25.71
7.72
6.50
11.72
15.53
49.17
19.10
122.22
-92.57
5.94
8.38
11.90
8.67
n.m.
22.15
16.54
13.50
13.36
10.39
4.57
31.72
31.77
23.74
11.52
30.10
14.64
15.79
-45.62
13.31
5.03
21.82
14.28
-9.28
14.29
16.83
9.88
10.47
26.69
16.23
36.50
251.29
-55.00
-59.75

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 7 Comparable Consensus EPS

Sector
Home Products
MODERN
SITHAI
IFEC
Hotel/Tourism
CENTEL
ERW
Insurance
BLA
THREL
Petrochemicals
PTTGC
IVL
Property
PS
SPALI
LPN
CPN
TICON
WHA
AMATA
AP
LH
SF
ROJNA
PYLON
MK
SC
QH
ANAN
HEMRAJ
SIRI
Steel
TMT
Transportation
AOT
BTSGIF
BECL
NOK
TTA
RCL
BA
NYT
AAV
PSL
BTS
BMCL
THAI

20-Feb-15
0.28
0.64
0.23
0.22
0.49
1.18
0.12
2.26
2.78
0.77
3.60
6.27
1.09
0.75
3.25
2.89
1.98
1.91
1.38
1.71
1.30
0.85
0.65
0.64
0.47
0.54
0.47
0.45
0.41
0.37
0.35
0.22
0.99
0.99
0.57
10.66
0.65
3.72
1.41
1.04
0.58
1.01
0.82
0.34
0.28
0.21
-0.03
-0.19

27-Feb-15
0.28
0.64
0.22
0.22
0.49
1.18
0.12
2.19
2.69
0.78
3.56
6.19
1.09
0.75
3.25
2.90
1.97
1.91
1.32
1.67
1.31
0.86
0.66
0.64
0.47
0.54
0.47
0.45
0.41
0.38
0.34
0.22
0.99
0.99
0.58
10.68
0.65
3.74
1.41
1.06
0.70
1.01
0.82
0.36
0.28
0.21
-0.03
-0.19

6-Mar-15
0.28
0.64
0.21
0.22
0.49
1.17
0.11
2.18
2.68
0.78
3.56
6.19
1.09
0.75
3.25
2.90
1.97
1.90
1.27
1.48
1.31
0.88
0.66
0.64
0.47
0.61
0.47
0.45
0.41
0.38
0.34
0.23
0.99
0.99
0.57
10.68
0.65
3.74
1.41
1.05
0.77
1.02
0.80
0.37
0.28
0.21
-0.03
-0.39

13-Mar-15
0.28
0.64
0.21
0.22
0.49
1.18
0.11
2.19
2.69
0.78
3.54
6.15
1.09
0.75
3.25
2.90
1.95
1.90
1.24
1.57
1.31
0.89
0.66
0.64
0.47
0.61
0.48
0.44
0.41
0.38
0.34
0.23
0.99
0.99
0.57
10.66
0.65
3.74
1.41
1.05
0.77
1.02
0.80
0.38
0.23
0.21
-0.03
-0.50

%MOM
-3.06
-1.53
-6.19
0.00
-2.49
-2.32
-3.45
-3.17
-3.59
1.04
-3.76
-4.44
0.00
-0.13
-0.28
0.28
-2.20
-0.26
-9.96
-8.09
-0.31
4.45
1.53
0.00
0.00
13.59
2.13
-2.47
-1.21
4.07
-1.16
5.56
0.00
0.00
-2.02
0.10
0.31
0.76
3.76
0.57
32.24
0.79
-2.43
10.59
-18.31
0.00
16.13
-12700.00

2016
0.49
0.67
0.26
0.77
0.62
1.43
0.17
2.86
3.56
0.90
4.01
6.84
1.36
0.83
3.53
2.97
2.16
2.22
1.32
1.75
1.52
0.95
0.76
0.73
0.40
0.68
0.50
0.50
0.46
0.48
0.37
0.25
1.22
1.22
0.73
12.34
0.72
3.91
1.68
1.07
0.76
1.40
0.97
0.42
0.47
0.22
-0.01
1.36

%YoY
78.04
4.20
22.64
254.84
26.25
21.48
53.57
30.79
32.37
15.38
13.34
11.13
25.05
10.87
8.46
2.38
10.50
16.55
6.21
11.61
16.30
6.61
14.78
14.89
-15.60
11.48
4.17
14.25
12.50
24.22
7.02
10.53
22.98
22.98
29.24
15.70
10.15
4.52
19.40
1.90
-1.56
37.33
20.42
12.77
101.29
5.85
-142.31
170.44

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable Consensus Target Prices

Sector
Agribusiness
GFPT
Automotive
STANLY
SAT
AH
PCSGH
Banking
BBL
KBANK
SCB
TISCO
KKP
TCAP
BAY
KTB
TMB
LHBANK
Commerce
BIGC
ROBINS
BJC
OFM
CPALL
SINGER
MC
MAKRO
BEAUTY
MEGA
GLOBAL
HMPRO
KAMART
LOXLEY
Communication
ADVANC
DTAC
INTUCH
TRUEIF
AIT
SAMART
THCOM
SAMTEL
JMART
JAS
SIM
TRUE
Construction Materials
SCC
SCCC
TASCO
DCC
DRT
Construction Services
BJCHI
SRICHA
STPI
TTCL
STEC
SEAFCO
CK
ITD

13-Feb-15
21.86
21.86
20.67
225.88
20.57
17.24
11.20
30.01
220.43
259.78
205.38
48.43
43.15
37.04
38.87
25.87
3.09
1.66
31.35
228.57
57.45
43.31
56.00
49.75
22.28
18.24
37.75
40.43
19.92
12.81
10.11
6.93
4.77
34.68
255.93
106.11
94.86
12.78
43.50
38.16
50.20
23.00
12.47
9.50
4.45
10.83
115.14
527.64
421.70
80.50
6.02
5.42
19.89
45.52
40.82
27.52
36.00
28.02
12.71
30.43
7.93

20-Feb-15
21.48
21.48
20.72
225.88
20.87
17.24
11.20
29.98
218.87
259.78
205.38
48.37
43.15
37.04
38.87
25.87
3.09
1.66
31.14
232.00
57.21
44.21
56.00
49.45
20.40
17.96
35.88
40.43
21.13
12.75
10.11
6.70
4.77
34.67
256.47
105.00
95.27
12.78
45.50
38.20
50.20
21.50
12.47
9.18
3.59
11.06
116.55
535.44
421.70
80.50
6.01
5.53
19.89
46.85
40.82
26.93
35.33
27.95
12.71
30.62
8.05

27-Feb-15
19.87
19.87
20.72
225.88
20.87
17.24
11.20
29.98
218.56
261.27
203.56
48.50
42.86
36.67
39.26
25.98
3.11
1.58
31.04
232.00
55.57
43.68
54.00
49.06
20.40
17.96
36.78
42.97
21.13
12.55
10.03
6.00
4.77
34.75
257.72
103.85
95.27
12.85
45.50
38.28
48.99
21.00
14.70
9.18
3.59
11.18
117.54
540.62
421.70
80.50
6.12
5.53
19.72
46.85
40.57
25.75
35.33
27.81
12.91
30.99
7.93

6-Mar-15
18.27
18.27
20.29
225.88
20.87
16.97
10.60
29.95
218.56
261.27
202.95
48.50
42.86
36.67
39.10
25.98
3.11
1.58
30.85
230.22
55.49
43.68
56.63
48.19
20.40
17.96
36.78
42.97
21.13
12.70
9.92
9.20
4.67
34.87
257.21
103.44
95.15
12.90
45.50
38.28
48.66
21.00
14.70
9.54
3.53
11.49
117.57
541.42
418.56
80.50
6.16
5.35
19.94
46.85
37.42
25.63
39.80
27.66
13.29
31.01
8.19

13-Mar-15
17.66
17.66
20.23
225.88
20.87
16.55
10.60
29.75
217.36
260.01
199.13
48.81
42.70
36.94
39.31
25.90
3.10
1.58
30.80
230.56
54.93
43.68
56.63
47.62
18.33
17.96
37.30
44.83
21.13
12.79
9.98
9.20
4.67
35.14
256.86
102.63
95.25
13.27
44.00
38.28
48.35
21.00
14.70
9.18
3.49
12.22
119.27
550.62
418.56
80.50
6.24
5.35
20.22
46.82
34.50
24.07
41.25
27.72
14.58
31.34
9.04

%MOM
-19.23
-19.23
-2.09
0.00
1.44
-4.00
-5.36
-0.88
-1.39
0.09
-3.04
0.78
-1.05
-0.26
1.14
0.13
0.49
-5.17
-1.76
0.87
-4.38
0.87
1.12
-4.29
-17.70
-1.55
-1.19
10.88
6.07
-0.16
-1.32
32.70
-2.10
1.32
0.36
-3.28
0.41
3.85
1.15
0.32
-3.68
-8.70
17.88
-3.36
-21.45
12.88
3.58
4.36
-0.75
0.00
3.69
-1.24
1.68
2.87
-15.47
-12.55
14.58
-1.08
14.71
2.98
14.08

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable Consensus Target Prices

Sector
Energy
PTT
PTTEP
EGCO
GLOW
TOP
RATCH
BCP
BANPU
SPCG
ESSO
GUNKUL
DEMCO
EA
TTW
CKP
IRPC
Entertain
BEC
MCOT
WORK
MAJOR
RS
VGI
MONO
GRAMMY
Electronic
DELTA
KCE
HANA
SMT
SVI
Finance
AEONTS
KTC
ASK
MBKET
SAWAD
TK
THANI
ASP
MTLS
Food
TUF
OISHI
M
TVO
CPF
SAPPE
KSL
CBG
MINT
PM
ICHI
CFRESH
Health Care
BDMS
BH
CHG
BCH

13-Feb-15
48.34
376.08
131.65
178.40
91.30
52.43
66.44
37.94
30.75
32.63
6.04
34.48
17.75
24.53
12.44
18.78
3.65
19.03
46.66
16.55
29.52
29.92
17.48
11.18
5.53
22.00
31.10
70.56
51.70
44.00
10.40
3.46
17.53
135.80
80.75
23.30
27.28
31.37
6.40
3.84
5.14
16.33
28.52
24.01
57.50
65.43
23.00
34.60
38.17
5.81
39.90
38.72
12.00
23.88
10.80
23.66
20.82
140.17
20.60
8.63

20-Feb-15
48.12
376.24
127.04
178.40
91.30
52.65
66.44
37.56
30.83
32.63
6.04
34.48
18.38
24.53
12.54
18.28
3.96
19.28
46.25
16.76
33.04
31.29
18.62
11.18
5.53
22.00
31.32
70.56
52.70
44.00
10.40
3.71
18.72
135.80
85.42
22.95
27.28
37.05
6.40
3.91
5.50
18.06
28.58
24.01
57.50
65.43
25.10
34.60
34.75
5.81
39.90
38.72
12.00
24.67
10.80
23.72
20.82
141.36
20.28
8.86

27-Feb-15
48.18
375.48
127.04
178.40
92.82
52.71
66.60
37.47
31.07
33.40
6.15
36.11
18.73
24.18
12.50
19.70
3.93
19.47
46.36
15.98
37.86
31.93
19.06
11.18
5.40
22.00
31.47
70.58
53.79
44.25
10.40
3.69
20.02
135.80
96.25
24.63
27.28
37.90
8.93
3.91
5.50
21.32
28.63
24.02
57.50
67.08
25.10
34.52
35.50
5.83
39.90
38.85
12.00
24.30
10.80
23.76
20.81
141.94
20.30
9.11

6-Mar-15
48.23
374.48
127.04
178.13
93.55
53.10
67.00
37.39
31.03
33.40
6.15
36.11
17.40
25.18
12.33
19.70
3.99
19.38
45.45
17.57
46.43
31.93
19.00
11.02
5.32
18.20
31.67
70.58
53.79
44.25
10.40
4.16
19.93
136.50
96.36
25.23
27.28
38.92
8.93
3.91
5.50
20.27
27.78
23.53
57.50
67.08
23.90
31.90
36.75
6.02
39.90
38.84
12.00
24.48
10.80
24.27
21.44
141.94
20.76
9.07

13-Mar-15
48.19
373.29
127.04
177.71
93.55
53.65
67.00
37.33
31.03
33.40
6.15
36.11
17.40
25.18
12.33
19.70
4.00
19.33
44.54
17.35
46.43
32.40
19.97
11.02
5.32
18.20
31.76
70.58
53.79
44.25
10.40
4.38
20.33
136.50
96.36
25.23
28.67
41.70
9.75
3.84
5.43
20.32
27.35
23.53
57.50
67.08
23.90
30.23
37.40
6.02
41.37
38.84
12.00
24.48
10.80
24.44
21.62
142.65
20.76
9.08

%MOM
-0.31
14.08
-0.74
-3.51
-0.38
2.46
2.34
0.84
-1.61
0.90
2.38
1.82
4.74
-1.97
2.67
-0.86
4.93
1.60
9.55
-4.53
4.83
57.29
8.31
14.21
-1.43
-3.90
2.12
-17.27
0.03
4.03
0.57
0.00
15.95
26.59
0.52
19.33
8.26
5.11
32.94
52.34
0.00
5.70
-4.11
24.45
-1.98
0.00
2.53
3.91
-12.63
-2.01
3.51
3.68
0.31
0.00
2.53
3.30
0.00
3.84
1.77
0.76

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015

17 March 2015

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

Fig 8 Comparable Consensus Target price

Sector
Home Products
MODERN
SITHAI
IFEC
Hotel/Tourism
CENTEL
ERW
Insurance
BLA
THREL
Petrochemicals
PTTGC
IVL
Property
PS
SPALI
LPN
CPN
TICON
WHA
AMATA
AP
LH
SF
ROJNA
PYLON
MK
SC
QH
ANAN
HEMRAJ
SIRI
Steel
TMT
Transportation
AOT
BTSGIF
BECL
NOK
TTA
RCL
BA
NYT
AAV
PSL
BTS
BMCL
THAI

13-Feb-15
9.09
11.90
3.05
17.20
18.10
40.69
5.81
46.97
56.98
18.65
46.14
65.99
27.56
11.73
37.20
28.78
23.32
59.15
20.39
35.76
20.30
7.72
11.15
7.80
7.67
8.89
4.18
4.45
4.71
4.12
4.44
2.02
12.60
12.60
16.61
295.50
11.27
44.80
18.77
24.89
11.70
26.46
19.07
5.83
21.31
11.05
1.49
16.38

20-Feb-15
9.16
11.43
3.31
17.20
17.95
40.28
5.81
48.98
59.69
18.65
45.88
65.47
27.54
11.73
36.82
28.87
23.10
59.08
20.39
35.36
20.67
7.72
11.10
7.80
7.67
8.89
4.18
4.45
4.82
4.12
4.41
2.07
10.75
10.75
16.91
307.44
11.40
44.91
18.75
24.89
11.70
26.46
19.00
5.80
20.84
11.05
1.49
15.78

27-Feb-15
9.21
11.82
3.31
17.20
17.89
40.28
5.71
46.27
56.26
17.99
45.10
64.99
26.47
11.78
36.96
28.96
22.97
59.33
20.55
35.78
20.48
7.80
11.15
7.80
7.67
8.89
4.18
4.45
4.88
4.26
4.40
2.07
10.75
10.75
16.95
307.67
10.77
45.24
18.75
24.89
11.70
26.46
19.25
5.97
20.84
11.11
1.71
15.52

6-Mar-15
9.16
11.82
3.21
17.20
17.77
40.15
5.59
45.40
55.09
17.99
45.30
64.99
26.85
11.73
36.87
28.38
22.90
58.69
19.49
36.62
20.25
7.77
11.15
7.80
8.33
9.01
4.18
4.28
4.93
4.34
4.39
2.09
10.75
10.75
16.82
309.62
10.15
43.72
18.80
22.01
11.70
26.46
19.25
6.16
20.84
11.06
1.71
15.23

13-Mar-15
9.16
11.82
3.21
17.20
17.67
39.89
5.59
45.48
55.28
17.76
45.21
64.87
26.80
11.74
37.01
28.50
22.91
58.83
19.22
36.62
20.25
7.87
11.06
7.80
8.33
8.85
3.76
4.34
4.97
4.41
4.40
2.09
10.75
10.75
16.83
310.85
10.32
43.72
18.80
22.01
11.70
26.46
19.25
6.20
19.92
11.11
1.71
14.39

%MOM
0.80
5.20
-0.70
5.35
-2.34
0.00
-1.97
-3.17
-3.74
-2.99
-2.03
-4.76
-1.71
0.08
-2.75
-0.52
-0.97
-1.78
-0.54
-5.74
2.41
-0.27
1.89
-0.83
0.00
8.61
-0.39
-10.05
-2.56
5.54
6.99
-0.77
-14.68
3.36
1.30
-14.68
5.19
-8.43
-2.42
0.14
-11.59
0.00
0.00
0.96
6.43
-6.51
0.49
15.00

Note: All data derived from Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg, 13 March 2015
Remark: Comparable consensus EPS specific stock at least 3contributors

17 March 2015

10

Tracking Fundamental Momentum

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17 March 2015

11

Tracking Fundamental Momentum