Constantly forgotten

Hein Stigum
Presentation, data and programs at:
http://folk.uio.no/heins/
Talks, Constantly forgotten

09-11

H.S.

Agenda
Example
Concepts
Prevalence, risk and odds

Methods
Regression models
RD
RR
OR

09-11

H.S.

Smoking among 10th graders

Variable

All
Sex
Boy
Girl
Parents marital status
Living together
Single
Educational plans
Academic
Secondary 3 years
Secondary 1 year
Vocational
Family economy
Well off
Good
Short of mony

10785

14.5

09-11

p-value
<.001

5045
5740

8.7
19.5

Adjusted
Odds Confidence
Ratio interval

?
1.0
3.0

(2.7 - 3.4)

1.0
2.3

(2.1 - 2.6)

1.0
1.7
2.4
2.8

(1.3 - 2.2)
(1.9 - 3.1)
(2.5 - 3.2)

1.0
1.3
1.7

(1.0 - 1.6)
(1.3 - 2.2)

<.001
7165
3564

10.4
22.5
<.001

5157
540
41
2701

9.9
15.4
22.0
23.4
<.001

936
9381
331

14.2
14.0
27.8
H.S.

30

40

Constant term, sex

10

20

y = o + 1sex

Constant term, intercept

1, Boys

2, Girls

20

generate sex1 = sex - 1

30

40

10

y = o + 1sex1

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H.S.

1, Boys

2, Girls

20

30

40

Constant term, age

10

y = o + 1age

-10

o
20
Age

25

30

35

40

10

y = o + 1age30

20

generate age30 = age 30

30

40

-10

o
0

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H.S.

20
Age

25

30

35

40

Prevalence and risk

Prevalence
Risk of having disease

Incidence proportion
Risk of getting disease

09-11

H.S.

Generalized linear models, GLM

Smoking as outcome
y=0/1, x = covariates
E(y|x) = P(y=1|x) = p
family: y|x~Binomial

identity
link: log

logit

09-11

RD
RR
OR

H.S.

RD versus RR and OR
RD
-1

1
RR, OR

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Linear binomial model, RD

p = o + 1sex + 2 age
p = o + RD1 + RD2

Girl, with single parents,

academic plans and well off:
Prevalence=
0.000+0.120+0.104=0.223
=22.3%

09-11

Variable
Risk at reference
Sex
Boy
Girl
Parents marital status
Living together
Single
Educational plans
Academic
Secondary 3 years
Secondary 1 year
Vocational
Family economy
Well off
Short of mony

H.S.

Confidence
interval
RD
0.000
0
(0.107, 0.132)
0
0.104

(0.088, 0.119)

0
0.057
0.107
0.130

(0.027, 0.088)
(0.069, 0.145)
(0.113, 0.147)

0
0.086

(0.038, 0.134)

Log binomial model, RR

log( p ) = o + 1sex + 2 age Variable
p = e o + 1sex + 2 age
o

= e RR1 RR2

Girl, with single parents,

academic plans and well off:
Prevalence=
0.043 * 2.45 * 1.94=0.203
=20.3%

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Risk at reference
Sex
Boy
Girl
Parents marital status
Living together
Single
Educational plans
Academic
Secondary 3 years
Secondary 1 year
Vocational
Family economy
Well off
Short of mony

H.S.

Confidence
interval
RR
0.043
1
2.45

(2.21, 2.72)

1
1.94

(1.77, 2.12)

1
1.55
2.04
2.26

(1.26, 1.90)
(1.68, 2.46)
(2.05, 2.48)

1
1.45

(1.21, 1.74)

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Odds and probability

p
Disease
Odds =
=
1 p NotDisease

P
1%
10 %
30 %

Odds
1.01 %
11.11 %
42.86 %

Odds
p=
1 + Odds

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100

Healthy

t
a New
Cases

Healthy*time

Existing
Cases

50

Disease frequency depicted

time
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Logistic model, OR
log(

p
) = o + 1sex + 2 age
1 p

odds = e o + 1sex + 2 age

o

= e OR1 OR2
Girl, with single parents,
academic plans and well off:
Prevalence odds=
0.039 * 3.01 * 2.30=0.269
Prevalence=21.2%

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Variable
Odds at reference
Sex
Boy
Girl
Parents marital status
Living together
Single
Educational plans
Academic
Secondary 3 years
Secondary 1 year
Vocational
Family economy
Well off
Short of mony

H.S.

OR

interval

0.039
1
3.01

(2.65, 3.41)

1
2.30

(2.05, 2.58)

1
1.70
2.44
2.82

(1.31, 2.19)
(1.90, 3.13)
(2.49, 3.19)

1
1.71

(1.31, 2.24)

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Summing up
Reporting constant
- Increases information a lot!

Technical
0 must be part of the range
Not for traditional Case Control

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