An Agent-Based Model to Simulate Motorcycle Behaviour

in Mixed Traffic Flow

Tzu-Chang Lee

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of London
and Diploma of the Membership of Imperial College London

Centre for Transport Studies

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Imperial College London, United Kingdom

October 2007

1
Acknowledgements

I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to my supervisors, Professor John

Polak and Professor Michael Bell. Their full support, inspiring guidance and warm

encouragement have enabled me to overcome the confusion and difficulties that have

been encountered throughout the study. In addition, my sincere appreciation goes to

Professor Marcus Wigan, the visiting professor of the Centre for Transport Studies, for

his continued and invaluable support.

I would like to thank the Ministry of Education of Taiwan for the scholarship, which

made this thesis possible.

I am deeply grateful to the members of the Centre for Transport Studies, in

particular, Jackie, Jan-Dirk, Robin, Steve, Kriangkrai, KyoungA, Walter, Wat, Zia… for

their friendship, companionship and assistance.

Very special thanks go to my parents, relatives and friends in Taiwan who were

always in touch during my stay in England and encouraged me to keep going through

those good and not so good times.

Final and special mention must go to my wife for being there and supporting me all

the time. She has made this journey a less lonely one.

2
Abstract

Motorcycles have constituted a significant proportion of the total traffic stream in

many countries. They possess several unique features which lead them to exhibit erratic

and chaotic trajectories when making progress in traffic. However, the conventional

traffic flow theories and traffic simulation models seem to place less consideration on the

uniqueness of motorcycles. This may cause such theories and models to have difficulties

when describing mixed traffic. In order to take this gap into consideration, this study was

conducted to investigate the effects of motorcycles on the traffic flow. The following

procedure was adopted:

Firstly, the unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles were characterised. Further

analyses were carried out to extract the fundamental elements which cause the unique

behaviour. As the complexity theory assumes that complexity can emerge from simple

rules, this study then further suggested that the motorcycle behaviour can be described by

modelling these basic elements.

Secondly, three models were developed to describe motorcycle movements, namely

the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path

choice model. The longitudinal headway model focused on describing the phenomenon

that a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the

preceding vehicle. The oblique & lateral headway model described the headway

distribution of motorcycles when they are following the preceding vehicles obliquely.

The path choice behaviour was modelled by using a multinomial logit model which

described the dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles.

Thirdly, these three models were calibrated separately. The first and the second

models were calibrated by using the Bayesian analysis due to their non-linearity and

complexity. The last model was calibrated by the maximum likelihood estimation of
3
utility models. The data for the calibration were collected by using the video recording

methods. The vehicular trajectories from the video footage were extracted by using a

software package developed by this study.

Finally, an agent-based traffic simulator was built to represent the motorcycle

behaviour in mixed traffic flow. The mathematical models developed for describing the

motorcycle behaviour were implemented in this simulator. Through the verification

process, this simulation system showed that it was able to work as intended and represent

the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. Three applications of this simulator

were presented to show that this simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a

powerful tool for conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

4
Table of Contents

Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................2

Abstract............................................................................................................................3

Table of Contents.............................................................................................................5

List of Figures ..................................................................................................................8

List of Tables..................................................................................................................10

1 Introduction..................................................................................................12
1.1 Background....................................................................................................12
1.2 Objectives of this thesis .................................................................................14
1.3 Structure of this thesis ...................................................................................15

2 The Characteristic Behaviour of Motorcycles ..........................................17

2.1 Introducing the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles...............................17
2.1.1 The observations from literature....................................................................18
2.1.2 The observations of this study .......................................................................20
2.1.3 Significance of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour ..................................21
2.2 The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars ............................24
2.3 The behaviour patterns to be modelled..........................................................28
2.4 Summary........................................................................................................31

3 Review of Driving Behaviour Modelling ...................................................32

3.1 Conventional car-following and lane-changing models ................................32
3.1.1 Car-following models ....................................................................................33
3.1.2 Lane-changing models...................................................................................40
3.1.3 Summary........................................................................................................46
3.2 Modelling of mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles..............................46
3.2.1 Microscopic approaches ................................................................................47
3.2.2 Macroscopic approaches................................................................................53
3.2.3 Summary........................................................................................................55
3.3 Conclusions and discussions .........................................................................55

4 The Models ...................................................................................................57

4.1 The longitudinal headway model ..................................................................57
4.1.1 The minimum following distance without swerving manoeuvres.................57
4.1.2 The minimum following distance with swerving manoeuvres......................59
4.1.3 The minimum longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle ...................62
4.1.4 Summary........................................................................................................62
5
 4.2 The oblique & lateral headway model...........................................................63
4.2.1 The oblique headway.....................................................................................63
4.2.2 The lateral headway.......................................................................................65
4.2.3 Summary........................................................................................................66
4.3 The path choice model...................................................................................66
4.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................70

5 Data Collection.............................................................................................71
5.1 Types of data required ...................................................................................71
5.2 Data collection method ..................................................................................72
5.2.1 Video data versus floating-car data ...............................................................73
5.2.2 Choosing the data collection method.............................................................74
5.2.3 Accuracy of the data acquired by the video recording method .....................75
5.3 Data collection ...............................................................................................75
5.3.1 Video recording equipment ...........................................................................76
5.3.2 Time and site of the data survey ....................................................................77
5.3.3 The data extracting system ............................................................................81
5.4 The database ..................................................................................................89
5.4.1 Preliminary data processing...........................................................................89
5.4.2 Description of the database............................................................................92
5.4.3 Accuracy of the database ...............................................................................93
5.5 Summary........................................................................................................97

6 Model Calibration........................................................................................98
6.1 The longitudinal headway model ..................................................................98
6.1.1 Data selection ................................................................................................98
6.1.2 Properties of the longitudinal headway .......................................................100
6.1.3 Specification of the longitudinal headway model .......................................106
6.1.4 The calibration results ................................................................................. 115
6.2 The oblique & lateral headway model.........................................................124
6.2.1 Data selection ..............................................................................................124
6.2.2 Properties of the oblique headway...............................................................125
6.2.3 Specification of the oblique & lateral headway model................................127
6.2.4 The calibration results .................................................................................131
6.3 The path choice model.................................................................................139
6.3.1 Data selection and the data set.....................................................................139
6.3.2 The calibration tool......................................................................................144
6.3.3 The calibration results .................................................................................145
6.4 Discussion....................................................................................................152
6.4.1 Tackling the systematic error of the data.....................................................153
6.4.2 Comparisons between the assumptions of non-lane-based movements and
6
 dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles..............................154
6.4.3 Comparison between the conventional Stochastic Frontier Analysis and
the approach proposed in this section..........................................................157
6.4.4 The advantage of the data collection method ..............................................160

7 The Agent-Based Traffic Simulator .........................................................162

7.1 Agent-based modelling................................................................................162
7.1.1 The agent and agent-based modelling .........................................................162
7.1.2 Agent-based modelling and traffic simulation ............................................164
7.1.3 Agent-based modelling for this study..........................................................167
7.1.4 Selecting the agent-based modelling tool for this study..............................170
7.2 The simulator...............................................................................................173
7.2.1 The agents....................................................................................................174
7.2.2 The environment..........................................................................................177
7.2.3 The interaction rules ....................................................................................178
7.2.4 The user interface ........................................................................................186
7.2.5 The schedule of activity...............................................................................187
7.2.6 Summary......................................................................................................188
7.3 Verification ..................................................................................................189
7.3.1 Representation of the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles...................189
7.3.2 The effects of the dynamic virtual lane based models.................................191
7.3.3 The cooperation between vehicles...............................................................193
7.3.4 Headway distribution...................................................................................193
7.3.5 The fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow .............................................194
7.4 The applications...........................................................................................195
7.4.1 The scenario settings ...................................................................................195
7.4.2 The effects of the installation of a motorcycle lane.....................................196
7.4.3 The effects of the installation of an advanced stop line...............................199
7.4.4 The PCU values of motorcycles ..................................................................202
7.5 Summary......................................................................................................206

8 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Work .........................207

8.1 Summary of research ...................................................................................207
8.2 Recommendations for further work............................................................. 211

References ....................................................................................................................214

7
List of Figures

Figure 2.1 The congested mixed traffic at an intersection in Taipei, Taiwan .................23

Figure 2.2 The motorcycle storage behind the stop line in Taipei, Taiwan.....................23

Figure 2.3 Factors leading to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles.....................29

Figure 2.4 The regimes of the interactions between passenger cars and motorcycles....31

Figure 3.1 The family of the models for vehicular movements ......................................32

Figure 4.1 The minimum following distance of motorcycles .........................................59

Figure 4.2 The space-time trajectories showing minimum following distance of a

motorcycle.......................................................................................................60

Figure 4.3 The schematic diagram of the oblique following relationship ......................64
Figure 4.4 The schematic diagram of the oblique following distance ............................65

Figure 4.5 The schematic diagram of the overtaking relationship..................................66

Figure 4.6 The schematic diagram of the path choice decision ......................................68

Figure 5.1 Data collection and processing sequence ......................................................76

Figure 5.2 The lens distortion test of Sony DCR-HC32 .................................................77

Figure 5.3 The schematic diagram of the survey site......................................................79

Figure 5.4 Images for extracting trajectories and measuring vehicle dimensions ..........81

Figure 5.5 Screenshot of the new data collection system ...............................................82

Figure 5.6 The schematic diagram of the measured dimensions of vehicles..................84

Figure 5.7 The conversion of the coordinates between the video image and the real
world ...............................................................................................................85

Figure 5.8 The animated display of the extracted trajectories ........................................89

Figure 5.9 The conceptual illustration of the steering direction .....................................91

Figure 5.10 The conceptual illustration of the body direction ........................................91

Figure 5.11 The errors caused by perspective and sight angles ......................................95

Figure 6.1 The schematic diagram of the longitudinal following relationship ...............99

Figure 6.2 The scatter plots of the longitudinal following relationship........................101

Figure 6.3 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways..........................103

8
Figure 6.4 The calibration of the longitudinal headway model using WinBUGS ........ 117

Figure 6.5 The frequency distributions of the oblique headways .................................126

Figure 6.6 The calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model using WinBUGS 132

Figure 6.7 The contours of the marginal distribution of the oblique & lateral headway
model.............................................................................................................137

Figure 6.8 The minimum following distance under the non-lane based assumption....155

Figure 6.9 The conceptual illustration of Equation (6.60) ............................................156

Figure 7.1 The decision-making process of the mid-term plan ....................................183

Figure 7.2 The decision-making process of motorcyclists............................................185

Figure 7.3 The screenshot of the agent-based simulation system developed in this
study ..............................................................................................................186

Figure 7.4 Time-space plot of the trajectories in mixed traffic flow ............................190
Figure 7.5 Time-space plot of the trajectories in homogeneous traffic flow ................192

Figure 7.6 The communication and cooperation behaviour of vehicles .......................193

Figure 7.7 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways..........................194

Figure 7.8 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for motorcycle lanes.197

Figure 7.9 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without
the installation of a motorcycle lane .............................................................198

Figure 7.10 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for advanced stop
lines ...............................................................................................................200

Figure 7.11 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without
the motorcycle reservoir................................................................................201

Figure 7.12 The fundamental diagrams under different traffic compositions...............203

Figure 7.13 The comparison of flow-density relations under different traffic

compositions .................................................................................................204

Figure 7.14 The flow rates and PCU values from the simulation results .....................204

9
List of Tables

Table 3.1 Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour .....................................................41

Table 5.1 The resolution of the video images .................................................................83

Table 5.2 The list of reference points..............................................................................87

Table 5.3 Numbers of vehicles surveyed ........................................................................93

Table 6.1 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by lateral position
difference.......................................................................................................102

Table 6.2 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by flow density ......105

Table 6.3 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by speed difference 105

Table 6.4 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by leading speed ....105
Table 6.5 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (left half) ................120

Table 6.6 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (right half) ..............121

Table 6.7 The statistical properties of the oblique headways........................................126

Table 6.8 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the elliptic
model.............................................................................................................133

Table 6.9 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the
triangular model ............................................................................................134

Table 6.10 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the
triangular model with linear shape parameter...............................................135
Table 6.11 Comparisons between the estimated and the observed statistics of the
oblique following behaviour .........................................................................136

Table 6.12 Errors of the estimation results....................................................................136

Table 6.13 The sample frequencies of the alternatives .................................................142

Table 6.14 The multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour .............................145

Table 6.15 Estimation results for the path choice model ..............................................146

Table 6.16 Estimation results for the refinements of the path choice model ................148

Table 6.17 Refined multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour ......................152

Table 6.18 Estimation results for the refined path choice model ..................................152
Table 6.19 Comparison of the calibration results between the conventional stochastic
frontier analysis and the approach used in this study....................................159
10
Table 7.1 Comparisons of the specifications between models......................................181

Table 7.2 Specifications of the scenarios ......................................................................196

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1 Introduction

This study aims to develop a microscopic simulation model for describing the

motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow by using the technique of agent-based

modelling. The term ‘motorcycle’ here refers to any single-track two-wheeled motor

vehicle, with a speed which is competent to overtake other vehicles in urban networks.

Following this definition, vehicles such as heavy motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and

motorised-bicycles are categorised as motorcycles.

In this first chapter, the orientation of this thesis will be described. It starts with the

background to this topic, particularly the necessity of understanding motorcycle

behaviour from the standpoint of traffic management. The objectives of this study are

then described. The structure of this thesis is provided at the end of this chapter.

1.1 Background

Motorcycles have been an important mode of transport in South East Asia for

decades. They account for around half of the road traffic in many Asian cities (Gwilliam,

2003). For example, in Vietnam, more than 75% of the traffic consisted of motorcycles

(Gwilliam, 2003; Hsu et al., 2003; Nguyen and Montgomery, 2006; Minh et al., 2006),

whilst in urban area of Malaysia, around 39% of the traffic were composed of

motorcycles (Hsu et al., 2003). In other countries, 46% of traffic in Taipei, Taiwan (Hsu et

al., 2003), 79%i in Lao (Hussain et al., 2005), 75%i in Cambodia (Hussain et al., 2005)

and 73% i of traffic in Indonesia (Hussain et al., 2005) were motorcycles. Moreover,

motorcycle ownership in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, was as high as 0.75 per capita in 2005

(CEPD, 2006). In Bangkok, motorcycles accounted for 40% of the registered vehicles in

i
Based on the data of Hussain et al (2005), it included motorcycles and three-wheeled vehicles.
12
2003 (Sano et al., 2005).

In addition to these ‘motorcycle-driven societies’ (JBIC, 1999) in Asia, other areas

also see the active presence of motorcycles. For example, motorcycles act as a mode of

paratransit service to deliver people and goods in Nigeria, Uganda and Kenya (Fasakin,

2002; Howe, 2003; Kisaalita and Sentongo-Kibalama, 2007). Passenger transport by

motorcycle is popular in Italy and Greece (EEA, 2003). In Italy, for example, motorcycles

accounted for 11.5% of vehicle mileage on roads in 1994 (Hurdle, 1997). Furthermore,

there are signs that the use of motorcycles as a transport mode is growing in some areas of

Europe and Australia. In Greece and Luxembourg, the motorcycle ownership increased

by 118% and 116% respectively between 1990 and 1998 (EEA, 2001). Yannis et al. (2007)

reported that this upward trend of motorcycle ownership was still continuing in Greece.

Also, the passenger transport by motorcycle showed a strong growth in Denmark and

Portugal between 1994 and 2000 (EEA, 2003), while the average growth of motorcycle

traffic in the European Union (EU-15) reached 18% during this period. The total

motorcycle registrations in New South Wales, Australia increased by 14% from 1995 to

2000 (De Rome et al., 2002). In the United Kingdom, registered motorcycles had

increased by 36% from 1993 to 2001 (DfT, 2004) and motorcycle traffic had increased by

34% between 1993 and 2002 (Huang and Preston, 2004). With this increase of

motorcycle usage, the necessity for considering the role of motorcycling in an integrated

transport policy cannot be overlooked, something that has been pointed out by many

studies (e.g. DETR, 1998; Wigan, 2000; Martin et al., 2001; Robertson, 2002; DfT,

2004).

Motorcycles possess several unique features such as narrow width, small size, high

power-to-weight ratio and intuitive steering. All this may lead them to have more freedom

in a traffic stream and also perform some characteristic behaviour patterns in mixed

traffic flow. For example, motorcycles generally present more complex behaviour than

13
passenger cars do, exhibit more erratic and chaotic trajectories when making progress,

and do not always follow the lane disciplines strictly. However, the conventional traffic

flow theories and traffic simulation models seem to put their main focus on passenger

cars and, accordingly, place less consideration on the uniqueness of motorcycles. This

may cause such theories and models to have difficulties when describing mixed traffic

(Ahuja, 2001) and assessing the influence of motorcycles upon the traffic flow,

particularly in busy urban networks or in a congested stream. Under such circumstances

the differences in behaviour between motorcycles and passenger cars become more

obvious due to their different natures.

Motorcycles have constituted a significant proportion of the total traffic stream in

many countries and, still, have been poorly represented in existing traffic flow theories

and simulation software. In order to take this gap into consideration, this study is

conducted to investigate the effects of motorcycles on the traffic flow. In stead of

considering motorcycles as small passenger cars, the movements of motorcycles are

analysed focusing on their unique features. The results of this study can facilitate mixed

traffic management for those motorcycle-driven societies and clarify the role of

motorcycles in integrated transport policy for the Western countries.

1.2 Objectives of this thesis

The aim of this study is to demonstrate a new approach to the modelling of

motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. The necessity for an in-depth analysis of this

issue has been briefly discussed above and will be more fully explained in the remainder

of this thesis. In order to achieve the aim of this study, there are four research objectives

identified:

1) Characterise motorcycle behaviour patterns;

2) Identify the gaps and weaknesses in current microscopic treatments for

14
 simulating motorcycles in traffic flow;

3) Develop models to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles; and

4) Develop a traffic simulation system capable of representing motorcycle

behaviour.

1.3 Structure of this thesis

This thesis comprises eight chapters which explicitly explain the steps taken to

achieve the objectives mentioned above. Each chapter consists of several subsections,

starting with an introduction that describes the structure of the chapter and ending with a

summary which identifies the main issues raised in the chapter. The thesis is organised as

follows:

Chapter 1 introduces the overall context of this study, states the research objectives

and provides the structure of this thesis.

Chapter 2 characterises the behaviour of motorcycles. It analyses the causes of their

unique behaviour patterns and summarises the essential factors leading to the

characteristic behaviour. This chapter then indicates a direction and provides a basis for

the model developments.

Chapter 3 focuses on reviewing the traffic simulation techniques. Studies concerned

with the car-following models, the lane-changing models and the mixed traffic flow

modelling are reviewed and discussed.

Chapter 4 develops three mathematic models to describe motorcycle behaviour.

These models describe the longitudinal following relationship, the lateral and oblique

following relationship, and the path choice behaviour of motorcycles.

Chapter 5 describes the data collection method adopted by this study.

Chapter 6 describes the model calibration process. Such a process includes data

cleaning, data analysing, model specification and the selection of the calibration tools.

15
The calibration results of the three mathematical models developed in this study are

presented.

Chapter 7 presents an agent-based traffic simulation model. The above

mathematical models are embedded in this simulation system to direct the actions and

interactions of the agents. Three applications of this system are demonstrated at the end of

this chapter.

Finally, Chapter 8 outlines the conclusions of this study and makes suggestions for

future work.

16
2 The Characteristic Behaviour of Motorcycles

This chapter aims to provide an in-depth analysis of motorcycles’ particular

behaviour and to prepare the ground for the model developments in Chapter 4. It is

observed that motorcycles exhibit characteristic movements which are distinct from those

of passenger cars. These movements however, seem to be less considered in microscopic

traffic models (this point will be explored in Chapter 3). This can cause such models

difficulties in representing motorcycles in mixed traffic. To take this into account, the first

step is to characterise motorcycles’ behaviour patterns and analyse the fundamental

elements contributing to the unique behaviour.

This chapter starts with a description of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour. The

comparison between motorcycles and passenger cars is then provided. Finally, the

fundamental behaviour patterns which contribute to the characteristic movements of

motorcycles are extracted.

2.1 Introducing the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

In traffic flow, motorcyclists tend to adopt an active driving style, make progress by

making use of opportunities (Martin et al., 2001) and exhibit characteristic movements

which are distinct from the typical movements of passenger cars. These characteristic

movements will now be introduced in the following three subsections. The first

subsection reviews the relevant literature related to this topic. Then, the observations

from this study will be detailed in the second subsection. Based on the discussions of the

above two subsections, an identification of the characteristic behaviour patterns of

motorcycles is provided in the last subsection.

17
2.1.1 The observations from literature

The behavioural differences between motorcycles and passenger cars have been

discussed in many studies. These behaviour patterns include:

Travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane

It is common for a motorcyclist to share the lateral lane space with other vehicles

because the width of a motorcycle (0.75 m) accounts for only around 25% of the lane

width (3 m). Many studies have observed this behaviour pattern. For example, Branston

(1977) investigated the headway of vehicles and reported that the measurement of

motorcycles’ headways was difficult because of their ability of travelling alongside

another vehicle in the same lane. Other studies such as Robertson (2003), Chandra and

Kumar (2003), Arasan and Koshy (2003), Cho and Wu (2004) and Minh et al. (2006)

have also described this behaviour pattern.

Oblique following

Motorcycle can follow another vehicle at an oblique position due to their

narrowness and small size. As the typical width of a lane is far larger than the need of

motorcycles, they do not necessarily keep to the centre of a lane. As a result, when

following a vehicle, motorcycles enjoy the freedom to choose the lateral positions in a

lane. Thus, it is often to observe that a motorcycle follows a vehicle at an oblique position.

By doing so, the motorcyclist can get a better field of view and have a better chance to

filter, overtake or avoid a potential collision. Robertson (2003) described this following

pattern as “echelon formation”. Arasan and Koshy (2003) reported that the vehicles in

mixed traffic had “zero headways”. Although they did not mention the reasons, such short

headways could be due to motorcycles’ oblique following or lateral following. Cho and

Wu (2004) described this behaviour pattern when they tried to model the motorcycle

behaviour in mixed-traffic flow.

18
 Filtering

Filtering is the behaviour of moving through the lateral clearances between slow

moving or stationary vehicles. It can be considered as a series of overtaking movements

by using dynamic virtual lanes. Such behaviour pattern has been pointed out in many

studies (e.g. Hurdle, 1997; Oketch, 2000; Wigan, 2001; Robertson, 2002; MRA, 2006).

Due to the narrowness of motorcycles, they enjoy the advantage of filtering through the

traffic under the situations that cars cannot (Elliott et al., 2003). Minh et al. (2006) tried to

employ the concept of ‘dynamic lane’ to describe the filtering behaviour of motorcycles.

Moving to the head of a queue

Motorcycles have the advantage of moving to the head of a queue due to their

ability of filtering. At the beginning of a green light, the motorcycle tends to enjoy a short

start-up time to pass the intersection. May and Montgomery (1986) observed this

phenomenon and reported that the motorcycles leaving the intersection with the first 6 sec

of the green time would not affect the capacity of the intersection. Powell (2000)

developed a regression model to describe this behaviour pattern (more details will be

discussed in Chapter 3). In the simulator of Oketch (2000), the widths of standard

vehicles were defined to be smaller at standstill to allow motorcycles to filter to the head

of the queue. In addition, other studies such as Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005)

and Minh et al. (2006) developed models to describe the behaviour of motorcycles at an

intersection. Moving to the head of a queue was also listed as one of the significant

behaviour types of motorcycles in Robertson’s study (2002).

Swerving or weaving

Swerving or weaving is a typical behaviour pattern of motorcycles which mixed

longitudinal and lateral movements. When a motorcyclist is weaving in and out of the

traffic, it seems that the vehicles in his surroundings are able to cooperate with this

19
particular behaviour pattern. Hurdle (1997), Robertson (2002) and Minh et al. (2006)

have introduced this behaviour pattern. It is sometimes followed by an overtaking or

filtering movement.

Tailgating

According to Arasan and Koshy (2003) and Minh et al. (2005b), motorcyclists were

likely to maintain short following distances than do car drivers. In addition, Horswill and

Helman (2003) found that motorcycles were more likely to pull out into small gaps. It

seems that motorcycles have higher tolerance for a small following distance. However, it

is still not clear about the reason behind motorcyclists’ tailgating behaviour.

2.1.2 The observations of this study

In addition to the behaviour observed from literature, other types of behaviour are

also identified by this study.

Maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding

vehicle

Motorcycles follow the preceding vehicles in a two-dimensional manner and the

lateral movement within a lane does affect their manoeuvres. This study has found that a

motorcycle tended to have a shorter headway while following the preceding vehicle by

aligning to its lateral edge. This is because when a motorcyclist progresses by the strategy

of collision avoidance, aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle can shorten

the safety gap since he can swerve away easily.

Travelling according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in

surroundings

In urban networks, motorcycles do not progress fully following the lane marks as

they have less lane discipline than passenger cars have. Instead, they are likely to move

20
according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in their surroundings.

For example, when a motorcyclist is progressing alongside another vehicle in the same

lane, his movements are constrained by the vehicles aside. Also, a wide lateral clearance

between vehicles becomes a virtual lane for a motorcycle to go through. Therefore, the

clearances in a motorcycle’s surroundings provide potential paths for it to make progress

in traffic.

Self-organisation phenomena

A cluster of motorcycles in mixed traffic can easily present ‘herd behaviour’, i.e.

they can act together without prior arrangements. An example of this is the cycle of

filtering-gathering-dispersing of motorcycles. In a congested intersection, motorcycles

can filter to the head of the queues. Subsequently, motorcycles will gather into a cluster

behind the red light. At the start of the green periods, they burst by using higher

accelerations, then dispersing into the traffic stream and moving towards the next

intersection. This cycle can be viewed as the phenomena of self-organisation.

2.1.3 Significance of motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour

According to the findings in the literature and the observations from this study, the

unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles can be summarised. Also, the significance of

these behaviour patterns is described.

2.1.3.1 Characterising the behaviour patterns

The characteristic behaviour of motorcycles mentioned in Sections 2.1.1 and 2.1.2

is summarised as follows:

1) Travelling alongside another vehicle in the same lane

2) Moving to the head of a queue

3) Filtering

21
 4) Swerving or weaving

5) Tailgating

6) Oblique following

7) Maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding

vehicle

8) Travelling according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the vehicles in

surroundings

9) Self-organisation phenomena

The above list concludes the observations of motorcycles’ behaviour patterns

mentioned in the literature and observed in this study. Most of the characteristic

behaviour patterns of motorcycles, from the viewpoint of microscopic traffic modelling,

have been included in this list.

2.1.3.2 Significance of the behaviour patterns

It is believed that the behaviour patterns mentioned in the preceding section play an

important role in mixed traffic containing motorcycles, particularly in congested traffic.

Although little study has assessed the impacts of these behaviour patterns on the traffic,

their significant influences are commonly observed. Two figures are employed to

illustrate this point. Figure 2.1 shows the saturated flow at the beginning of the green light

at an intersection in Taipei. By comparing the four photos in this figure, the difference of

the traffic patterns among the passenger car flow, the mixed flow and the homogeneous

motorcycle flow can be observed. Figure 2.2 display the motorcycle storage behind the

stop line and the filtering behaviour of motorcycles.

22
 (a) (b)

(c) (d)

Figure 2.1 The congested mixed traffic at an intersection in Taipei, Taiwan

Figure 2.2 The motorcycle storage behind the stop line in Taipei, Taiwan

The behaviour patterns mentioned in Section 2.1.3.1 are presented in these photos.

For example, Figure 2.2 presents the filtering behaviour and the phenomenon of moving

to the head of queues. Figure 2.1 shows the difference in the way passenger cars and

23
motorcycles maintain safety clearances. The behaviour patterns such as riding abreast in

the same lane, oblique following and close following can be observed in these photos. In

addition, Figure 2.1a shows the ‘swarming’ phenomenon of a cluster of motorcycles. It is

worthwhile to point out that the behaviour of maintaining a shorter headway when

aligning to the edge of the preceding vehicle is the key factor to cause this phenomenon.

Based on the above analyses, it would be safe to assert that the presence of

motorcycles has a significant impact on the traffic density and the flow pattern because of

their unique behaviour patterns. However, the conventional vehicular models cannot

describe them. In order to simulate the behaviour of motorcycles in the mixed traffic flow,

it is critical to develop tailor-made models for describing these particular behaviour

patterns. The first step towards this objective is to characterise the essential differences

between motorcycles and passenger cars. This will be elaborated in the following

sections.

2.2 The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars

The physical, psychological and mechanical differences between different vehicle

types will give rise to different behaviour. This section will focus on discussing the

essential differences between motorcycles and passenger cars from several viewpoints.

Field of view

The motorcyclist has a wider field of view than the car driver does. The car driver’s

field of view is obstructed by the frame of the windscreen, the crumble zone, the doors

and the facilities in the cabin. Consequently, those blind spots cause difficulties in

assessing the exact clearances around his vehicle. In contrast, the motorcyclist has a wider

field of view, so he can assess the gaps more precisely.

The difference in the field of views between vehicle types would affect the

behaviour of their drivers. When a driver cannot observe his gap ahead clearly, he would

24
maintain a larger safety margin. This is usually the reason why the car drivers tend to

maintain larger safety margins than do the motorcyclists. According to the observation of

this study, the difference could be up to 1 m, albeit no direct evidences. This difference

usually could be omitted in the studies of free flow, but it plays an important role in the

studies of congested urban networks because it facilitates motorcyclists’ tailgating,

weaving and filtering behaviour. Therefore, it is believed that the wider field of view of

the motorcycle contributes to its characteristic behaviour.

Size

The narrowness and small size of a motorcycle contributes to its distinctive

behaviour. A motorcycle is usually around 0.75 m wide by 1.6 m long. This size is much

smaller in comparison with the size of a car, which is around 1.6 m wide by 4.3 m long.

Based on its small size, the motorcycle can exploit the road space which is usually

unusable for a passenger car. For example, a motorcycle can filter through a slow moving

flow by using the clearance between two parallel cars. It can also weave in and out of a

stationary flow via the safety margins between vehicles.

Weight

Not only the small size but also the light weight achieves the agility of the

motorcycle. A motorcycle is much lighter than a car. With the light weight of a

motorcycle, the rider can move his body to facilitate his manoeuvre. In addition, the light

weight causes the higher power-to-weight ratio of the machine (Elliott et al., 2003). As a

result, a motorcyclist is likely to feel it easier to achieve high accelerations,

psychologically or mechanically. Hsu et al. (2003) mentioned that motorcycles enjoy a

burst at the beginning of a green light at a signalised intersection. Their view provides an

evidence for this point.

25
 The manoeuvring methods

Being a single-track vehicle, the motorcycle is steered by using the handlebar and

the movement of the rider’s body. By the delicate interaction between man and machine,

the motorcycle and its rider is considered to be a man-machine system (Sharp, 2001) to

exhibit some agile movements. However, a passenger car can be manoeuvred only by

using the steering wheel. By comparing the manoeuvring methods of these two vehicle

types, the motorcycle is comparatively intuitive, straightforward and precise. These

characteristics can often influence the behaviour of motorcycles.

Turning radii

The turning radii of motorcycles are much smaller than those of passenger cars due

to the differences in size and the manoeuvring system. This may lead to the agility of

motorcycles and further facilitates their swerving behaviour.

Acceleration

Motorcycles were found to enjoy a burst at the beginning of a green light at a

signalised intersection, but their acceleration would be lower than the cars’ acceleration

when their speeds were above 40 km/h (Hsu et al., 2003).

Braking deceleration

The physical mechanism of applying brakes of a motorcycle is complicated. A

motorcyclist needs highly developed manoeuvring skills to exhaust the maximum

braking capability of the machine. Ecker et al. (2001) conducted an experiment and found

that common motorcyclists could only achieve an average braking deceleration of around

-6.19 m/sec2, which was only 56% of the maximum deceleration capability of the

machine (around -11 m/sec2, Biokinetics and Associates Ltd, 2003). Vavryn and

Winkelbauer (2004) obtained similar results and the maximum deceleration velocity in

their tests was -6.6 m/sec2. However, the value varied slightly with factors such as the

26
familiarity with the vehicle, the training of riders, the condition of the road surface and

types of braking systems. Regarding passenger cars, the mechanical maximum braking

capability was around -10 m/sec2 (quoted by Ecker et al., 2001).

The major difference in the braking behaviour between the single-track and

double-track vehicles is that there is a psychological and technical hurdle for

motorcyclists to achieve the maximum braking, whereas this is not the case for car drivers,

who can exhaust the maximum braking capability easily.

Reaction time

Since motorists and motorcyclists have different the field of views and

manoeuvring methods, there would be some differences between their reaction times.

However, no study focusing on this issue has been conducted. Green (2000) reviewed the

studies concerning the reaction time of car drivers and concluded that when fully aware, it

was around 0.70 to 0.75 sec, whereas it was 1.25 to 1.5 sec in unexpected situations.

Gipps (1981) applied 0.66 sec to the reaction time in his following model. In a survey of

the reaction time of the motorcycles, Tang (2003) reported that the reaction time of

motorcycles was 0.7 to 0.9 sec. Hsu et al. (2003) observed that motorcycles had a shorter

reaction time at the start of the green time. In addition, Minh et al. (2006) used following

distances, speeds and acceleration rates to calculate the reaction times of motorcycles and

found that the average reaction time was 0.52 sec. Generally speaking, the reaction time

for the vehicle drivers, including motorcyclists, is around 0.5 sec to 1.5 sec.

Headway

A few studies have focused on comparing the following distance between

motorcycles and passenger cars and indicated that motorcyclists tend to maintain smaller

headways than do car drivers. For example, Branston (1977) measured the headway of

motorcycles on motorways and found it was 0.6 to 0.9 times shorter than that of cars

27
(quoted in Wigan, 2000). Ahuja (2001) indicated that the gaps accepted by motorcycles

were extremely small. Horswill and Helman (2003) pointed out that motorcyclists tended

to pull out into smaller gaps frequently. Arasan and Koshy (2003) reported that the

heterogeneous flow had extremely short headways. In addition, Minh et al. (2005b) found

that the 50% of the motorcycles in their surveys had time headways between 0.5 sec and

1.0 sec, which were only half of the headways of passenger cars.

In addition to the longitudinal headway, motorcycles can ride alongside other

vehicles within the same lane. Thus, the lateral gap, or lateral headway, is a unique

kinematic parameter of them. Minh et al. (2005a), Hussain et al. (2005) and Minh et al.

(2006) have investigated the width of the path required for motorcycles. From their

results, the minimum lateral gap that a motorcyclist needs was around 0.5 m.

Speed

Hsu et al. (2003) quoted an observation which indicated that the speeds of

motorcycles were higher than the speeds of cars at the beginning of the green light, but

were lower in mid stream. Also, motorcycles had a higher speed in narrow streets.

Horswill and Helman (2003) analysed the results both from laboratory experiments and

from roadside observations, concluding that motorcyclists would like to choose faster

speeds than car drivers would. Statistic results in the United Kingdom showed that

motorcycle speeds are about the same as car speeds (DfT, 2005b). DfT

2.3 The behaviour patterns to be modelled

According to the basic assumption of complexity theory, complexity can emerge

from simple rules (Bar-Yam, 1997; Anderson, 1999). Thus, it is assumed that the

motorcycle behaviour can be generated by modelling some key elements. In order to

extract these key elements, the causal relationships among these behaviour patterns are

clarified. In addition, the essential differences discussed in Section 2.2 are linked to the

28
behaviour patterns to support and rationalise the model developments.

Identification of the key behaviour patterns

The characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles can be generally categorised

into two types. The first type describes how a motorcycle reacts to another vehicle. It is a

one-on-one vehicular relationship such as the longitudinal following, oblique following,

overtaking, etc. The second type is the multi-vehicular relationship which describes how

a motorcycle reacts to several vehicles in its surroundings. Such interactions include the

filtering behaviour, swerving behaviour and path choice behaviour.

Figure 2.3 shows how the key differences contribute to the characteristic behaviour

of motorcycles. In addition, the relationships between the one-on-one vehicular

interactions and the multi-vehicular interactions are also presented. The arrows in this

diagram represent the causal relationships between the elements.

Basic feature One-on-one vehicular Multi-vehicular

interaction interaction
Oblique & lateral headway
Small size model Moving to the head of a
queue
Travelling alongside
another vehicle in the
Lighter weight same lane
Filtering
Oblique following

Intuitive steering
method
Longitudinal headway model Swerving or weaving
Maintain a shorter
Small turning radius headway when aligning to
the edge of the preceding Path choice model
vehicle Travelling according to
the dynamic virtual lanes
Wider field of view Tailgating

Figure 2.3 Factors leading to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

29
 In Figure 2.3, some relationships have been discussed in the literature. For example,

Elliott et al. (2003) have observed the light weight and the narrowness contribute to a

motorcycle’s high acceleration and filtering behaviour. Some relationships are explicit

and straightforward. For instance, the links among the vehicle sizes, the oblique

following behaviour, riding abreast in the same lane, filtering and moving to the head of

queues are commonly observed and easily understood.

However, some relationships proposed in this study seem plausible, but further

research is needed. The mechanism for maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to

the edge of the preceding vehicle, and the factors contributing to the dynamic virtual

lane-based movements should be investigated to offer a whole picture the motorcycles’

characteristic behaviour patterns. Moreover, it is found that most of the multi-vehicular

interactions are built on the one-on-one vehicular interactions. Therefore, to build a

simulation system to depict the motorcycle behaviour, three models are indispensable,

namely the oblique & lateral headway model, the longitudinal headway model and the

path choice model.

Description of the key behaviour patterns

Of these three models described above, the longitudinal headway model and the

oblique & lateral headway model depict the vehicle-following relationship. The former

describes how a motorcyclist reacts to another vehicle when he is progressing directly

behind this vehicle. The latter integrates the relationships of oblique following,

overtaking and travelling alongside another vehicle, detailing the reaction of a

motorcyclist when he is following at the rear left or rear right of another vehicle, or

progressing alongside another vehicle. The regimes of these two types of

vehicle-following relationships are shown in the conceptual illustration in Figure 2.4. The

boundaries of these regimes are defined according to the edges of the leading vehicle and

the width of the following motorcycle.

30
 The path choice model represents how a motorcyclist makes a decision on whether

or not to make a lateral movement. The alternatives of the choice set are defined

according to the edges of the leading vehicle and the width of the following motorcycle,

as shown in Figure 2.4. These three models will be elaborated more fully in Chapter 4.

Oblique following
Overtaking

w/2

Longitudinal
following w
Path choice w/2

Oblique following Overtaking

Figure 2.4 The regimes of the interactions between passenger cars and motorcycles

2.4 Summary

This chapter first characterised nine unique behaviour patterns of motorcycles. The

differences between motorcycles and passenger cars were then compared and the factors

contribute to these behaviour patterns were analysed. Finally, the fundamental elements

which led to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles were extracted.

The analyses of this chapter showed that there were significant behavioural

differences between motorcycles and passenger cars. These outcomes implied that in

order to represent the mixed traffic flow accurately in a simulation model, the

fundamental elements which caused the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles should

be captured in the model. These key behaviour patterns could be described by three

models: the longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the

path choice model. The developments of these models are presented in Chapter 4.
31
3 Review of Driving Behaviour Modelling

This chapter reviews the models that have been developed to describe vehicular movements

in traffic flow. Section 3.1 discusses the models aiming at describing the car-following and

lane-changing behaviour. Section 3.2 reviews the studies focusing on mixed traffic modelling,

particularly the traffic containing motorcycles. Section 3.3 provides a summary of this chapter.

3.1 Conventional car-following and lane-changing models

The studies concerning developing the models for describing the vehicular

movements in traffic flow have been emphasised for more than half a century (Pipes,

1953; Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). Being the fundamental elements of traffic flow

studies and simulations, a large number of models have been developed in this field.

Comprehensive reviews of these models can be found in many studies, for example,

Brackstone and McDonald (1999), Ahmed (1999), Hoogendoorn and Bovy (2001),

Olstam and Tapani (2004), and Toledo (2007). Based on their reviews, a general picture

of different models can be depicted, as illustrated in Figure 3.1.

General Motors nonlinear

models
Car-following models
Safety distance or collision
avoidance models
Free acceleration
models Psychophysical or action
Models for vehicular point models
movements
Lane-changing models
Fuzzy logic models

Cellular automata
models Other models

Figure 3.1 The family of the models for vehicular movements

32
 In the following subsections, the car-following models and the lane-changing

models are reviewed. Discussions focusing on the feasibility of applying these models to

motorcycle behaviour simulations are then provided at the end of each subsection.

3.1.1 Car-following models

Car-following models describe the interaction between adjacent vehicles in the

same lane (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). These models, providing the foundation

for traffic simulation systems, are the major part of the microscopic vehicular movements

modelling. Three featured models of this category, the General Motors nonlinear models,

the collision avoidance models, the psychophysical models are reviewed more fully

below in order to facilitate a deeper understanding of the car-following models.

3.1.1.1 General Motors nonlinear models

The General Motors nonlinear model (GM model), or sometimes referred to as the

GHR (Gazis-Herman-Rothery) models (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999), stemmed

from a series of studies conducted at the General Motors research labs in Detroit in the

late 1950s (Chandler et al., 1958; Gazis et al., 1959; Gazis et al., 1961). This type of

models assumes that the following behaviour is stimulated by the changes of the driving

condition. The acceleration of the following vehicle is influenced by the speed of the

preceding vehicle, and the speed difference and the headway between the vehicle pair.

The most general formulation is:

∆ vn ( t − τ )
an (t ) = αvnβ (t ) , where
∆xγn (t − τ )
(3.1)

an(t): the acceleration of vehicle n implemented at time t,

vn(t): the speed of vehicle n implemented at time t,

xn: the headway between vehicle n and vehicle n-1,

33
 vn: the speed difference between vehicle n and vehicle n-1,

: the driver reaction time, and

, and : parameters.

A great deal of studies has been worked on the calibration and validation of the GM

models. However, this type of models is now being used less frequently. The main reason

is the uncertainty of the parameter values, i.e. a large number of contradictory calibration

results about the parameters have been found (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). The

limitations of the GM models and the concerns about applying them to the motorcycle

movement modelling are discussed below.

Discussions

There are some limitations of the GM models:

1) The main criticism applied to the GM models is the lack of conclusive evidence

for the model formation, which might be one of the reasons leading to the demise

of this type of models (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). Although a wide

variety of the calibration results of the parameters , and can be obtained from

studies, it is difficult to validate these results since these parameters do not link

directly to the identifiable characteristics of drivers.

2) Whether the drivers can perceive and react to small changes of the spacing or

speeds is a question, particularly when the spacing is large.

3) Another drawback is that when the speed difference between the related vehicles

is 0, the estimated acceleration of the following vehicle will be 0. As a result, the

speed of the following vehicle will stay at the same level once there is no speed

difference to its preceding vehicle.

In addition, when applying the GM models to the simulation of motorcycle

behaviour, some issues should be taken into consideration:

34
 4) The GM models do not consider the interaction between the longitudinal

headway and the lateral position. Therefore, some behaviour patterns of

motorcycles cannot be described properly, for example, oblique following and

maintaining a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding

vehicle.

5) It is uncertain whether motorcycles exhibit the car-following phenomenon (or the

oscillating phenomenon) as they have the freedom of lateral movements. In fact,

points 4) and 5) are also the limitations of other car-following models.

6) Lan and Chang (2004) found that the GM models poorly described the vehicle

following behaviour of motorcycles. This finding was based on an empirical

study focusing on the following behaviour of motorcycles. The trajectory data of

motorcycles were surveyed and the results showed that the GM model did not fit

the field data well.

7) The parameters of the GM models vary with traffic conditions (Brackstone and

McDonald, 1999). However, the manoeuvres of motorcycles are highly sensitive

to the local environment. The parameters need to be estimated according to the

motorcycle behaviour in different local driving conditions. Such calibration

work will be resource-demanding.

3.1.1.2 Collision avoidance models

The collision avoidance models assume that the following vehicle will maintain a

safety distance to the vehicle in front and will select its speed to ensure the vehicle can

stop safely to avoid a rear-end collision. Such models (e.g. Kometani and Sasaki, 1959;

Gipps, 1981) are developed based on the equations of motion. However, this type of

models has been criticised in that the vehicles cannot react properly to the unexpected

movement of the preceding vehicles. For example, it is easy to cause a rear-end collision

when the preceding vehicle brakes suddenly (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999). To
35
tackle this issue, Gipps (1981) developed a model within which the extra safety reaction

time and safety headway margin were introduced. The parameters in his following model

corresponded to the characteristics of drivers directly and thus were not necessary to be

calibrated. When realistic values were assigned to the parameters, this model was able to

represent the characteristics of real traffic flow such as the propagation of disturbances.

The Gipps-like model has played an important role in the field of traffic simulation and

also has been employed in many traffic simulation packages, for example, MULTSIM

(Gipps, 1986b), SUMO (Krauss, 1998), AIMSUN (Barceló, 2001) and SIGSIM (Silcock,

1993).

In addition to describing the longitudinal following behaviour, the collision

avoidance models can be adapted to describe the lateral movement of vehicles. Gunay

(2007) tried to integrate the lateral offset of the following vehicle into the Gipps

following model. This study could be the first one to discuss the two-dimensional

movement of car-following behaviour. It also shows that the collision avoidance models

allow the flexibility in altering the kinematic properties.

Brackstone et al. (2002) found that the minimum desired following distance was far

lower than believed when they investigate the parameters for the action point model (see

Section 3.1.1.3). Therefore, they questioned that Newtonian mechanics could fail to

describe such a short headway. This finding offered a challenge to the validity of the

collision avoidance models. However, when a driver is following closely, he should be

more alert and his reaction time would be shorter than usual. In addition, if the driver

expects a low deceleration difference to the preceding vehicle, an extremely short

headway still can be described by a collision avoidance model.

Discussions

The collision avoidance models are developed based on the equations of motion. A

limitation of this type of models is that they have difficulties in considering the conditions

36
of several cars down stream (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999) because the equations of

motion cannot describe the interactions to the vehicles prior to the preceding vehicle.

Gipps following model is the most important one of the collision avoidance models.

This model asserted that its parameters did not need to be calibrated. Such an assertion,

however, can be argued. Although most of the parameters (such as speeds and

accelerations) can be measured according to the local traffic conditions since they

correspond to the realistic behaviour of drivers directly, some latent and unobservable

parameters (such as the reaction time, the extra safety reaction time and safety headway

margin) still need to be calibrated. Gipps dealt with this issue by suggesting that the

values of these parameters could be assigned arbitrarily or obtained from other studies. In

fact, the model would be able to describe the drivers’ behaviour better if the values of the

latent variables were obtained from a calibration process.

The Gipps following model is appropriate for describing the tailgating behaviour of

motorcyclists due to the assumption on which this model is based. When a vehicle is

following the leader closely, it will select the following speed and following distance

according to the principle of collision avoidance. This principle tends to be adopted by

most motorcyclists when they are progressing in congested traffic, particularly in urban

networks. Therefore, Gipps following model seems to be an ideal tool for simulating

motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic.

Another merit of the Gipps following model is that it is easy to be modified. This

model is developed based on the basic physical theories and the realistic parameter values.

Therefore, the parameter values are still valid after this model is modified according to

the equations of motion.

3.1.1.3 Psychophysical (action point) models

The psychophysical models (Leutzbach and Wiedemann, 1986) assume that drivers

control their acceleration by perceiving the related speed according to the change of the
37
visual angle of the preceding vehicle and keep their safety distance by setting a threshold.

This concept was first brought up by Michaels (1963). As drivers have difficulties in

detecting the subtle change of the spacing headway, the following vehicles may drift

around the spacing-based threshold. Thus, this type of models is able to represent the

phenomenon of oscillation or ‘following spiral’, which has been observed in many

studies (Brackstone et al., 2002). The action point models have been employed in a

number of traffic simulation packages, for example, PARAMICS (Fritzsche, 1994;

Cameron and Duncan, 1996) and VISSIM (Fellendorf and Vortisch, 2001).

Discussions

The basic assumption of this type of models can describe the features in daily

driving behaviour properly. However, the parameters of the models have not yet been

calibrated empirically. Most of the perceptual thresholds in studies are arbitrarily derived

from the human factors literature (Toledo, 2007). This seems not strong enough to either

prove or disprove the validity of this model (Brackstone and McDonald, 1999).

When applying the psychophysical models to the simulation of motorcycle

behaviour, a critical challenge facing the underlying assumption of this type of models is

whether the motorcycles exhibit the oscillating phenomenon? As they do not necessarily

stick to the same lateral positions, they are able to move laterally when crossing the

deceleration perceptual threshold, rather than applying brakes. An evidence for this

argument is given in Lan and Chang (2004) who pointed out that only 13.8% of the

observed motorcycles exhibited the vehicle following behaviour in their field survey. In

addition, it could be a more comfortable lateral position for a motorcyclist to align to the

edge of the preceding vehicle (as discussed in Section 2.1.2). Thus, when the concept of

action point is applied to the motorcycles, decelerating seems not to be the only choice

when exceeding the threshold. Instead, lateral moving is more likely to be the choice.

38
3.1.1.4 Comparison of car-following models

Many studies have been conducted to compare the performances of the

car-following models. Bloomberg and Dale (2000) compared the performance of the

cellular automata model (CORSIM) and the action point model (VISSIM) on a congested

network. They found that both models were appropriate for modelling congested

conditions, but each has specific strengths and limitations for some specific scenarios.

Brockfeld et al. (2004) used the data collected by DGPS-equipped cars (differential

global positioning system) to calibrate the models including the GM model (MITSIM,

Yang, 1997), the Gipps following model, the cellular automata model (CA0.1, Nagel and

Schreckenberg, 1992) and the action point model (PARAMICS). They concluded that no

model could be denoted to be the best. However, the complex models likely had the

problem of ‘over-fitting’, which meant that a complex model could fit a particular

situation extremely well, but was not capable of generalising to other situations. Punzo

and Simonelli (2005) also drew similar conclusions from their study.

Panwai and Dia (2005) evaluated the performance of the Gipps-like model

(AIMSUN) and two action point models (PARAMICS and VISSIM) on congested traffic.

They concluded that PARAMICS and VISSIM fitted the data of following distances

better than the Gipps-like model did. However, AIMSUN and VISSIM fitted the speed

difference and described the pattern of following spiral better than PARAMICS did. The

authors did not further discuss the reason why PARAMICS could not represent the

following spiral well since the action point models were specified to represent the

phenomenon of oscillation or following spiral.

Discussions

From the comparisons conducted by the above studies, it is found that the

car-following behaviour varies with traffic conditions and the properties of drivers. Each

type of models has specific strengths and limitations for some specific scenarios. In
39
addition, a more complex model could not be a more generalised one to other conditions.

Therefore, in order to simulate the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow properly,

to select or develop models which are able to capture the characteristics of motorcycles,

and to obtain a highly detailed database of the vehicle trajectories for calibrating the

models are both critical issues.

3.1.2 Lane-changing models

The lane-changing models describe the lateral movements of vehicles. Such

behaviour consists of two steps: the lane selection process and the execution process,

which are represented by the lane selection models and the gap acceptance models

respectively. These two types of models will be introduced here.

3.1.2.1 Lane selection models

The lane selection behaviour is modelled according to the motivation of drivers.

Different types of motivations may lead to different specifications of the lane selection

models and the gap acceptance models. This review will not address the details of the

model specifications, but will discuss the lane selection models from the aspects of cause

variables, model types and calibration techniques.

Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour

A driver’s lane-changing behaviour can be traced to several reasons. For example,

the driving condition of the current lane is not satisfactory; the target lane has a better

driving condition or the target lane is the approach to the intended turn. These cause

variables that affect the lane selection behaviour can be divided into four categories. In

each category, the variables considered in the literature are summarised in Table 3.1:

40
Table 3.1 Factors affecting lane-changing behaviour
Category Factor Study
Type of the - Vehicle type (heavy vehicle or not) Ahmed (1999)
subject vehicle

The driving - Speed (potential speed) Gipps (1986a); Fritzsche (1994); FHWA
conditions of the (1996); Yang (1997); Ahmed (1999);
target lane Hidas (2002, 2005)
- Nearside or offside (slow or fast lane) Sparmann (1978); Oketch (2000)
- The location of the obstruction on the Sparmann (1978); Gipps(1986a);
target lane (or lane blockage, queuing Fritzsche (1994); Oketch (2000); Hidas
length) (2002, 2005)
- The presence of heavy vehicles Gipps (1986a); FHWA (1996); Hidas
(2002)

The driving - The location of the obstruction on the
conditions of the current lane (or lane blockage, lane
current lane drop, lane merging, queuing length)
- Headway
- Regulations (or lane use restriction,
bus lane, shared straight-turning lane)
- Speed (current speed, desired speed,
potential speed, speed difference)
- The presence of heavy vehicles (or
slow vehicles)
- Traffic density
Sparmann (1978); Gipps (1986a); FHWA
(1996); Yang (1997); Oketch (2000);
Hidas (2002, 2005)
Sparmann (1978) ; Fritzsche (1994);
FHWA (1996); Wei (2000)
Gipps (1986a); Yang (1997); Hidas (2002,
2005)
Sparmann (1978); Gipps (1986a) ;
Fritzsche (1994); FHWA (1996); Yang
(1997); Ahmed (1999); Oketch (2000);
Hidas (2002, 2005)
Gipps (1986a); Yang (1997); Ahmed
(1999); Oketch (2000); Hidas (2005)
Yang (1997)

Destination - Distance (or time) to the intended turn
- Number of lane changes required
Gipps (1986a); FHWA (1996); Yang
(1997); Wei (2000); Oketch (2000); Hidas
(2002, 2005)
FHWA (1996); Yang (1997), Ahmed
(1999)

Model types

The lane selection models can largely be divided into two groups according to the

technique employed to decide the choice behaviour: the deterministic rule-based models

and the random utility models. The former employs a set of rules to describe the choice

behaviour. For example, in a study conducted in 1978 (cited in Toledo, 2007), Sparmann

linked the lane-changing behaviour to the locations of obstructions which were described

by psychophysical thresholds. Fritzsche (1994) and the traffic simulation software,

41
CORSIM (FHWA, 1996), also assumed that the lane-changing behaviour was triggered

by thresholds of speeds and headways. Gipps (1986a) developed a lane-changing model

by using a set of decision rules. In his model, the drivers selected the lane according to the

priority of these rules. Oketch (2000) used fuzzy logic rules to describe the lane-changing

decisions. Hidas (2002) employed a similar model to describe the lane-changing

behaviour. In addition, Wei et al. (2000) conducted an empirical study and developed a set

of decision rules to describe the lane-changing behaviour in two-lane urban arterials. Gipps, 19 86a

The random utility models for describing the lane selection behaviour have mainly

been developed in MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Yang (1997), Ahmed

(1999) and Toledo (2003) have used random utility models to describe the lane-changing

behaviour. They regarded the lane-changing behaviour as a sequence of decision-making

processes, in which three steps were involved, including the decision for changing lane,

the choice of the target lane and the gap acceptance in the target lane. The discrete choice

model framework was used to model the drivers’ lane-changing decision process.

Model calibration

The parameters of rule-based models have seldom been calibrated due to the model

structure. The decision rules for these models are developed according to the observations

of researchers. Gipps (1986a) and Hidas (2002) did not offer frameworks for estimating

the model parameters. Wei et al. (2000) linked the lane-changing behaviour to the

distance to the intended turn and the headways. They estimated the thresholds of

headways by using vehicular trajectory data.

The technique of random utility modelling provides a neat approach to model

calibration. The model calibration processes of Yang (1997), Ahmed (1999) and Toledo

(2003) were conducted by the maximum likelihood approach based on vehicular

trajectory data.

42
 Discussions

From the studies mentioned above, there are some issues which are worthwhile to

be noted and discussed to facilitate the development of the models in this study.

1) The studies reviewed have similar opinions on the factors causing lane-changing

behaviour (see Table 3.1). However, since these studies were conducted in

different environmental contexts, the model types they adopted were also

different.

2) The rule-based models have several advantages: a) easy to understand and

practice, b) easy to adjust the model and c) capable of being applied to a complex

environment. However, their disadvantages are: a) no solid framework for

calibrating the model parameters has been proposed and b) the interactions

between different rules were not considered in these models (Toledo, 2007).

3) The random utility modelling is suitable for describing the lane selection process

because lane selection is a kind of discrete choice based on the competition

between the utilities of driving on different lanes. In addition, this technique

provides a neat approach to model calibration. However, the model specification

and calibration process for a random utility model is resource-demanding. Also,

it is still not clear whether its model parameters are portable or not. Therefore,

this type of models seems not appropriate to be applied in large scale urban

networks with complicated contexts.

4) The lane selection models for cars must be modified before being applied to

motorcycles. These models are developed based on the lane-based environment

for cars. However, motorcycles travel according to the virtual lanes in their

surroundings. For describing the lateral movements of motorcycles, such a

characteristic should be taken into account.

43
3.1.2.2 Gap acceptance models

Gap acceptance models have been developed since the 1960s (Herman and Weiss,

1961; Ahmed, 1999). The basic gap acceptance models were formulated as a binary

choice problem. These models assumed whether the gap was accepted or not was

determined by comparing the available gap and the critical gap. More specifically,

Herman and Weiss (1961) assumed that the critical gap was exponentially distributed. In

addition, Drew et al. (1967) assumed a lognormal distribution; Miller (1972) assumed it

to be normally distributed.

The influence of different factors upon the gap acceptance behaviour of drivers has

been discussed by many studies. For example, Daganzo (1981) used a multinomial probit

model to estimate the parameters of the gap acceptance behaviour. His model considered

the variations of both the critical gaps and the drivers. Mahmassani and Sheffi (1981)

found that the number of rejected gaps had a significant impact on critical gaps due to the

impatience of drivers. Madanat et al. (1994) used the queuing time to investigate the

effects of impatience on gap acceptance behaviour. Moreover, Cassidy (1995) indicated

that the fit of the model could be improved by differentiating the first gap from the

subsequent gaps and the gaps in the inner lane from those in the outer lane. Other

parameters affecting the gap acceptance behaviour found in the literature included the

type of manoeuvres, speeds of vehicles, geometric characteristics and sight distances, the

type of control in the intersection, the presence of pedestrians, police activities and

daylight conditions (Toledo, 2007).

When applying the gap acceptance behaviour to the lane-changing manoeuvre, both

the lead gap (the gap to the oblique front vehicle in the target lane) and the lag gap (the

gap to the oblique rear vehicle in the target lane) are important factors. Gipps (1986a)

used the deceleration rate of the lag vehicle (the oblique rear vehicle in the target lane) as

the threshold of the gap acceptance behaviour. This threshold was calculated by the

44
braking deceleration that the lag vehicle had to apply to react to the presence of the new

preceding vehicle. Ahmed (1999) developed a discrete choice model to describe the gap

acceptance behaviour. His model allowed different sets of parameters for both the

mandatory lane change and the discretionary lane change situations. The former situation

had lower critical gaps than the latter situation due to the fact that drivers under the

mandatory lane-changing conditions usually behave more aggressively.

In congested traffic, the headways between vehicles are small. Thus, the acceptable

gaps may not be available. Under such circumstances, a successful lane-changing

manoeuvre relies on the cooperation between the subject vehicle and the lag vehicle. The

factors influencing the lane-changing behaviour are the lead relative speed, the distance

in which the lane change must be completed, the length of the gap and the aggressiveness

of the subject and the lag drivers (Ahmed, 1999, Hidas, 2002).

Discussions

There are two significant differences in the gap acceptance behaviour between car

drivers and motorcyclists. First, for motorcycles and passenger cars, their requirements

for the lateral width of the gap are different. The lateral width of the gap needed for a car

is generally equal to the width of the lane. However, the lateral width of the gap that a

motorcyclist requires is narrower because he can travel alongside other vehicles. Thus, a

motorcycle can easily merge into a congested main road at a non-signalised junction by

using the road shoulder or some lateral clearances, but under similar traffic conditions, a

passenger car has to queue for an accepted gap. This characteristic gives motorcycles

much more flexibility in determining the accepted gap.

The other significant difference to be pointed out is that the differentiation between

the driving conditions, such as the mandatory and discretionary lane changes, is not a

critical issue for motorcycles. The main reason is that motorcycles have more lateral

freedom in traffic flow. In addition, their accepted gaps are extremely small (Ahuja, 2001)

45
and narrow (as described above) and so they are more likely to pull out into small gaps

(Horswill and Helman, 2003). As a result, the gap acceptance behaviour of motorcycles

could be more relevant to their aggressive levels, rather than their driving conditions.

3.1.3 Summary

The findings of the reviews above can be concluded and summarised as follows:

1) The conventional car-following and lane-changing models are developed based

on the assumption of lane-based flow. These lane-based models cannot describe

the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles properly. The main reason is

that the lateral position of the motorcycle is more likely to be a continuous

variable rather than a discrete variable. This phenomenon is commonly observed

in congested urban networks where motorcycles usually make progress without

considering much of the lane discipline. As a sequence, it seems inappropriate to

apply these conventional models to mixed traffic flow.

2) Models that fail to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles could

cause serious errors in the estimation of mixed traffic flow, particularly when the

number of motorcycles is large or when the flow is crowded. For example, the

motorcycle behaviour such as filtering, progressing alongside another vehicle in

the same lane, tailgating by aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle

and oblique following will increase the flow density significantly. Thus, the

capacity of the flow will be underestimated when these behaviour patterns are

not considered in the traffic simulation models.

3.2 Modelling of mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles

The techniques used to simulate motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic are reviewed

below. These techniques are divided into two groups: the microscopic approaches and the

46
macroscopic approaches. This section starts with the introduction of the category of

microscopic approaches and ends with a detailed account of the macroscopic approaches.

3.2.1 Microscopic approaches

The microscopic models describing the motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow

are divided into three categories: the lateral moving models, the longitudinal moving

models and the cellular automata models. These models will be introduced in turn.

3.2.1.1 Lateral moving models

The conventional lane-changing models which describe the lane-based movements

of vehicles are unsuitable for describing the lateral movements of motorcycles (see

Section 3.1.2). Due to the non-lane-based and narrow natures of motorcycles, they can

make effective lateral movements without changing lanes. Therefore, it is necessary to

differentiate lateral moving behaviour of motorcycles from the lane-changing behaviour.

Cho and Wu (2004) suggested that the lateral position of a motorcycle was decided

by the positions of the nearest vehicles at front left, front right, left, right, rear left and rear

right. The relative longitudinal distance would affect the magnitude of the lateral

interaction reversely.

Minh et al. (2005a) conducted a study to investigate the overtaking behaviour of

motorcycles and the behaviour of riding alongside other vehicles in the same lane. In this

study, they suggested that the lateral distance needed for an overtaking behaviour was

linearly related to the vehicle overtaken. In addition, the lateral distance between two

motorcycles riding abreast was linearly related to the average speed of these two vehicles.

These relationships were described by linear regression models and data collected at

urban networks were used for the calibration process.

47
 Discussions

Classically a discrete variable is used to describe the lanes where a passenger car is

progressing on roads. However, the lateral position of a motorcycle is more likely to be a

continuous variable.

Minh et al. (2005a) modelled the lateral interactions by using linear regression

equations. Their model had two limitations. Firstly, it did not take the speed difference

into account. As a result, it was only suitable for describing the situations of low speed

difference. When the following motorcycle was overtaking the leading motorcycle by a

high speed difference, their linear regression model would misestimate the path width

required. Secondly, in reality, the relationship between the required path width and the

speeds was not linearly related. For example, in the motorway, the average speed could be

as high as 100 km/hr, but the lane width did not necessarily increase in proportion to the

speeds.

Another point needs to be discussed is the calibration of the models. It is difficult to

obtain a data set of motorcycle trajectories for microscopic studies because of their erratic

two-dimensional movements, particularly when the lateral movements within a lane

cannot be neglected. For example, no calibration has been performed on the model of Cho

and Wu (2004). The lack of empirical data could be the reason. However, Minh et al.

(2005a) have presented the calibration results based on the vehicular trajectories

extracted from video footage. Their experience showed that the video recording method

was capable of obtaining the trajectory data for motorcycle behaviour studies.

3.2.1.2 Longitudinal following models

The longitudinal following model describes the interaction between the subject

motorcycle and the vehicle in front. This behaviour pattern is similar to the conventional

car-following behaviour, but most of the longitudinal following models for motorcycles

will consider the effects of lateral moving behaviour patterns.

48
 When Cho and Wu (2004) conducted a study to simulate the behaviour of

motorcycles in mixed traffic, they developed a ‘spacing model’ (Newell, 1961) to

describe the longitudinal movements. In their model, the speed of the subject motorcycle

at next time step was supposed to be a function of the speeds of both vehicles, the desired

speed of the subject motorcycle, the space headway, the maximum acceleration and

deceleration and a safety margin. In addition, Cho and Wu categorised the oblique

following behaviour as a type of longitudinal following. In order to deal with the

condition of oblique following, a weight function was introduced to describe the effects

of lateral position difference on the longitudinal headway. As the lateral position

difference between the two vehicles was larger, the following distance became smaller.

Lan and Chang (2004) developed an ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

system) model to described the vehicle following behaviour of motorcycles. They linked

the acceleration rate of the subject motorcycle to the following distance, the speed of the

preceding vehicle and the speed difference. Based on the results, they concluded that the

ANFIS model performed better than the GM model.

Minh et al. (2006) specified two GM-like models that applied to both car-following

and free-decelerating conditions of motorcycles behind the stop line. The deceleration of

the subject motorcycle at next time step was supposed to be a function of the speed

difference, the speed of the subject motorcycle and the space headway. However, for

modelling the of movements of motorcycles, it might sometimes face the difficulties of

how to define whether a motorcycle was following another vehicle longitudinally or

obliquely due to the narrow and non lane-based natures of motorcycles. To deal with this

issue, Minh et al. (2006) developed a model to calculate the required width for the

progression of motorcycles. Thus, the leading vehicle of a motorcycle could be

determined and accordingly the longitudinal following distance could be calculated.

49
 Discussions

The longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles is similar to the conventional

car-following behaviour. However, the modelling of the former behaviour is more

complicated because it has to consider the effects of the lateral position. For example, it is

observed that motorcycles will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the lateral

edge of the preceding vehicle, as discussed in Chapter 2. In addition, due to the

non-lane-based nature of motorcycles, the leading vehicle of a motorcycle cannot be

defined merely by the lane. Therefore, there is a vague status between vehicle-following

regime and read-to-overtake regime.

Cho and Wu (2004) and Minh et al. (2006) have tried to deal with the interaction

between the longitudinal headway and the lateral position, but Lan and Chang (2004) did

not pay attention to this issue. In the study of Cho and Wu (2004), the oblique following

was categorised as the longitudinal following behaviour and a weight function was used

to describe the effects of lateral position on longitudinal headway. In the study of Minh et

al. (2006), the required width for a motorcycle on roads was modelled by a linear

regression equation and so the leading vehicle could be recognised. However, the

techniques to describe the effects of the lateral position on vehicle movements were just

at the preliminary stage. For example, the weight function in Cho and Wu (2004) was a

simple model which considers only the lateral position difference of the two vehicles. The

required width for the progression of a motorcycle in Minh et al. (2006) was modelled

simply by using a linear regression equation. How to integrate the effects of the lateral

movements into the longitudinal following behaviour is a challenge which the studies

focusing on mixed traffic flow modelling will face.

3.2.1.3 Cellular automata models

Apart from the mathematical equations mentioned above, some studies adopted

cellular automata modelling to direct the movements of motorcycles in a simulation.

50
Conventionally, the cellular automata model is applied to the simulation of homogeneous

traffic flow. Each cell unit usually represents the basic space that a vehicle needs. In order

to accommodate more than one type of vehicles into a cellular automata model,

non-identical particle sizes are assigned to represent different modes of transport.

Ahuja (2001) used a cellular automata-like approach to simulate the heterogeneous

traffic flow. The front, rear and lateral gaps accepted by each vehicle type were measured

and added to vehicle dimension to represent the road space occupied effectively by the

vehicle type. The size of a cell unit was decided according to the width of the road space

needed for the smallest vehicle type, which was 0.606 m for a bicycle. Each vehicle type

was assigned a certain number cell units to reflect the road space required. Then, rules for

moving, overtaking and halting were set to direct the movements of vehicles.

Lan and Chang (2005) and Lan and Hsu (2006) employed cellular automata models

to describe mixed traffic containing motorcycles. In order to deal with the situation of

more than one mode of transport into this cellular automata model, these studies used

non-identical particle sizes to represent different modes of transport, 6 × 2 cell units for a

passenger car and 2 × 1 for a motorcycle. Each cell unit accounted for 1.25 × 1.25 m2. In

addition, two cellular automata rules were set to direct the movements of the vehicles: the

forward moving rule described the acceleration and deceleration of the vehicles; the

lane-changing rule described their lateral movement behaviour. Finally, this model was

employed to assess the effects of lane widths and traffic compositions on flow. The

motorcycle equivalents were also estimated by using this model. Lan and Chang, 2005

Discussions

Cellular automata modelling has become an important microscopic simulating

technique for complex behaviour (Blue and Adler, 2001). It has the strength to simulate

vehicles in traffic flow mainly due to its straightforward algorithms and its efficiency at

the use of computational resources (Nagel et al., 1997). However, this technique still has a

51
limitation when it is applied to the mixed traffic simulation.

For simulating homogeneous traffic, one can easily develop a set of intuitively

understandable behavioural rules for directing movements of vehicles and this simulation

tool is able to produce surprisingly realistic results (Nagel et al., 1996). However, when

applying the cellular automata to heterogeneous traffic, whether the rule set is capable of

describing the interactions between different vehicle types will become a critical question.

Here are some suggestions for this issue:

1) The lane-based nature of the cellular automata modelling: In the lane-based

traffic, the widths of vehicles are not a critical issue for traffic simulation and the

lateral clearance between vehicles is useless space. However, the lateral position

and the lateral gap are important factors for the manoeuvres of a motorcycle.

These factors influence most of motorcycles’ unique movements, but the

grid-based cell unit cannot represent these factors properly. Take the filtering

behaviour for an example. In the real world, the path for a motorcyclist to filter

through is dynamically formed by the lateral clearances between vehicles. A

cellular automata system cannot mimic the subtle difference in the widths of

vehicles. Thus, it is possible to result in misestimating the efficiency of

motorcycles’ filtering behaviour.

2) The interactions between vehicles: When modelling a heterogeneous traffic

flow, one should consider not only the sizes of different vehicle types, but also

the particular interactions between these vehicle types. However, the studies of

Lan and Chang (2005) and Lan and Hsu (2006) did not take the unique behaviour

patterns of motorcycles into account. Under these circumstances, it is a question

whether the cellular automata model is capable of producing ‘surprisingly

realistic results’ (Nagel et al., 1996) for mixed traffic containing motorcycles by

using such simple rules.

52
3.2.2 Macroscopic approaches

Motorcycles are observed filtering and moving to the head of queues during the red

light. In addition, they enjoy a burst at the beginning of green at a signalised intersection

(Hsu et al., 2003). Thus, the behaviour of motorcycles at signalised intersections is an

interesting issue for the modelling of motorcycle behaviour. Two studies using

macroscopic approaches to describe the behaviour of motorcycles at signalised

intersections are reviewed.

Powell’s (2000) tried to estimate the number of motorcycles which were able to

filter to the head of a queue. His work was inspired by the study of May and

Montgomery (1986), who reported that the PCU (Passenger Car Unit) value of

motorcycles measured in Bangkok was as low as 0 during the first 6 sec of the effective

green time and was around 0.53 to 0.65 afterwards. Based on such an observation,

Powell (2000) further developed a macroscopic model to estimate the motorcycles

which were able to approach zero-PCU zone. He assumed that the number of

motorcycles able to filter to the head of a queue was linked to the arriving timing of the

motorcycles, the structure of the kinematic waves (Lighthill and Whitham, 1957), the

geometrical layout of the road and the composition of the vehicle types. Finally, a linear

regression model was developed to describe this statistical relationship.

Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005) used linear regression to estimate the

effects of motorcycles and the storage space behind the stop line on the start-up lost time

of passenger cars. They collected data from two intersections, one with storage space and

the other without. Their results showed that the appearance of motorcycles affected the

start-up lost time of passenger cars significantly at both intersections. In addition, they

found that the start-up lost time of passenger cars was linearly related to the number of

motorcycles in the queue. At the intersections with and without the storage space, each

motorcycle contributed an increase of 0.09 sec and 0.16 sec to the start-up lost time

53
respectively. These results provided useful information for the layout design of an

intersection.

Discussions

The factors that affect the filtering behaviour are well considered in the study of

Powell (2000). However, as discussed in his study, he did not take the capacity of the

motorcycle storage at the front of the queue into consideration. Thus, this model could

overestimate the number of motorcycles in the storage because this model did not

constrain the capacity of the storage. Similarly, the stopping wave of motorcycles

should also be taken into account.

The above problem is the limitation of a macroscopic approach. The relationships

among the motorcycles in the zero-PCU zone, the area of zero-PCU zone and the area

of the motorcycle storage at the head of the queue are not linearly related. Their

relationships are highly dependent on the layout of the intersection. When the storage

zone is small, the zero-PCU area can extend or shift to the lateral clearances between

passenger cars. This means that a motorcycle needs not filter to the head of the queue,

but its PCU value still can be 0. This condition, however, is not consistent with the basic

assumption of this study.

Rongviriyapanich and Suppattrakul (2005) used a macroscopic approach to

describe the effects of an advanced stop line. However, they did not take the width of

lanes into account. A wider lane will facilitate the filtering and lateral following

behaviour of motorcycles. Since such behaviour patterns do not affect the headway of

passenger cars, passenger cars tend to enjoy a shorter start-up lost time on a wider lane. In

addition, the width of vehicles can affect motorcycles’ filtering and lateral following

behaviour as well. Therefore, the results of this study have the limitation of applying to

other intersections.

54
3.2.3 Summary

Based on the literature discussed above, each approach has its pros and cons. The

microscopic models are better able to deal with the mixed traffic flow due to their

flexibility. However, to obtain a useful data set for microscopic models is

resource-demanding. The model calibration and validation processes for microscopic

models are also challenging tasks. In addition, the cellular automata model cannot

represent the important characteristic behaviour pattern properly due to its difficulty with

describing the subtle differences in lateral clearances between vehicles.

In comparison, the macroscopic approaches are not flexible about altering the

modelling scenario and environmental settings, although they are easier in collecting the

data required and more efficient at the use of computational resources when simulating

the traffic.

3.3 Conclusions and discussions

From the literature reviewed above, the characteristics of the development of

motorcycle movement modelling can be concluded as follows:

1) Not a popular topic: In comparison to the diverse and well-developed

car-following models, the development of the models for motorcycle behaviour

is just at the preliminary stage. Only a few studies have been conducted in this

field.

2) Asia-related: Most of the studies on this topic are related to Asian countries,

directly or indirectly. This can be explained by the popular use of motorcycles in

these countries and the problems that motorcycles have caused in these areas.

3) From late 1990s: It has been found that little research into motorcycle behaviour

modelling had been conducted before the late 1990s. After the late 1990s, there

were several factors leading to the emergence of these studies, particularly in

55
 Asian countries, for example, the usage of motorcycles, the availability of the

research tools, etc.

4) Technology depended: It is believed that the availability of the trajectory data is

of great importance in conducting a microscopic traffic study concerning

motorcycle movements in mixed traffic. Several studies have indicated that the

technique to obtain high quality data with low cost has become available since

the late 1990s (e.g. Bonneson and Fitts, 1995; Wei et al., 1999). This

improvement also has a positive effect on the research in this field.

A large number of studies focusing on the safety characteristics of motorcycling

have been conducted in Western countries, but studies on the standard transportation

issues of traffic flow effects have largely been neglected (Wigan, 2002). Some people

may argue that motorcycling should not be encouraged because of the safety issue and the

research on the mixed flow traffic containing motorcycles seems not so critical. However,

the presence of a large number of motorcycles has already been an existing problem in

Asian countries and this problem cannot be overlooked. In addition, as motorcycling has

the potential to be the solution for personal door-to-door transport in the congested urban

networks in the near future (actually, it has served well to gain mobility for those

motorcycle-driven societies), this topic deserves more attention.

Based on the above discusses, it is clear that there is currently a lack of knowledge

about the management of the presence of a large number of motorcycles, particularly on

modelling the interaction between the longitudinal and lateral movements of vehicles.

This study proposes to overcome this problem by focusing on capturing the unique

behaviour patterns of motorcycles. This will be described in the following chapters.

56
4 The Models

In Chapter 2, the fundamental elements which cause the unique behaviour pattern of

motorcycles have been extracted. As the complexity theory assumes that complexity can

emerge from simple rules, this study then further suggested that the motorcycle behaviour

can be described by modelling these basic elements. Three models are then proposed to

describe these basic elements, namely the longitudinal headway model, the oblique &

lateral headway model and the path choice model. A detailed account of the development

of these three models will be provided in this chapter.

4.1 The longitudinal headway model

The longitudinal headway refers to the following distance in the situation that the

subject vehicle is following directly behind a preceding vehicle. It is observed that the

longitudinal headways of motorcycles vary with the relative position to the leading

vehicle. Also, the swerving manoeuvre of motorcycles is assumed to affect their

following distance. Based on such an observation and assumption, the vehicle-following

model that integrates the scenarios with and without the consideration of swerving is

developed.

4.1.1 The minimum following distance without swerving manoeuvres

There are two strategies that a motorcyclist is likely to adopt in order to avoid a

collision: slowing down in time and dodging away in time. The former strategy means

that a motorcyclist applies brakes and reduces his speed to avoid a possible collision. This

principle of collision avoidance is usually employed to estimate the safety distance for

lane-based traffic. By using this strategy, the minimum following distance is a function of

the speeds, braking decelerations of the relevant vehicles and the reaction time of the
57
motorcyclist. This can be described by the equations of motion:

v' n2−1 = vn2−1 + 2bn−1d n−1 , where

(4.1)

vn : the initial speed of vehicle n,

v'n : the final speed of vehicle n,

dn : the stopping distance of vehicle n and

bn : the braking deceleration of vehicle n under the circumstance of no swerving, bn < 0.

The stopping distance of the leading vehicle is describe as Equation (4.2) as the

final speed is 0 m/sec.

vn2−1 .
d n−1 = −
2bn−1
(4.2)

The stopping distance of the following vehicle should take its reaction time into

consideration, given by:

vn2 , where
d n = vnτ −
2bn
(4.3)

: the reaction time.

In order to avoid a collision, the following distance should be larger than the

difference between the stopping distances between these two vehicles. Thus, the

minimum following distance without swerving, Dunswerving is formulated as:

2 2
Dunswerving = dn - dn-1= vnτ − vn + vn−1 ,
2bn 2bn−1
(4.4)

where Dunswerving is the longitudinal following distance calculated from the front of the

motorcycle n to the rear of the preceding vehicle n-1.

58
4.1.2 The minimum following distance with swerving manoeuvres

In addition to the strategy of slowing down in time, another strategy a motorcyclist

tends to adopt to avoid a rear-end collision is to dodge away in time. Due to the narrow

and agile nature of motorcycles, they have the advantage of using the clearance aside the

preceding vehicle efficiently. This clearance then becomes a sheltering space for

motorcycles to escape from a possible collision. The easier they are able to access this

clearance, the shorter following distances they would like to maintain. As a result, it is

observed that a motorcycle is capable of following a preceding car by an extremely small

safety gap when this motorcycle is aligning to the lateral edge of the car. However, when

the motorcycle is aligning to the centre of the car, it needs a larger following gap

(illustrated in Figure 4.1).

B
A C
Minimum following
distance

Figure 4.1 The minimum following distance of motorcycles

In order to avoid collision by using a swerving manoeuvre, a motorcycle has to shift

a lateral distance of dw during a certain period of time tw. Assuming that the lateral speed

of the following motorcycle vw is a constant, tw can be described as

dw
tw = , where
vw
(4.5)

dw : the lateral distance needed for avoiding a collision,

tw : the time needed for making the lateral movement dw and

59
vw : the lateral speed of a motorcycle.

When a motorcyclist is carrying out a swerving manoeuvre, the minimum

longitudinal safety gap for this motorcycle is shorter than that under the condition of no

swerving. This is illustrated in Figure 4.2.

The trajectory of the

Distance rear bumper of the
leading vehicle n-1
A
d4 B
Da
d3
Dc
d2 The trajectory of the
front bumper of the
Db following motorcycle n
Dnunswerving

d1
The motorcycle
dodges away and has
tw Time The following saved a space to avoid
ta tb tc distance without collision
swerving
(a) (b) (c)

Figure 4.2 The space-time trajectories showing minimum following distance of a

motorcycle

Figure 4.2a shows the time-space trajectory of two vehicles. Curve A is the

trajectory of the rear bumper of the leading vehicle and curve B is the trajectory of the

front bumper of the following vehicle. Thus, the vertical distance between these two

curves represents the following distance between the two vehicles.

Under the unswerving condition, as shown in Figure 4.2b, when the following

vehicle senses the leading vehicle decelerating at time ta, it will apply brakes after a

delay of the reaction time . In order to stop in time to avoid a collision, the following

vehicle has to maintain a safety gap Dunswerving. This relationship has been described in

Equation (4.4).

However, when the following vehicle swerves off to the left of the leading vehicle

60
soon after the rider starts to brake at time tb, he is able to avoid the collision with an

additional margin of Da, as shown in Figure 4.2c. Therefore, the minimum following

distance is reduced to Dunswerving -Da, which is equal to Db-Dc, given by:

unswerving
∆Dnswerving = D -Da = Db-Dc
(4.6)

In Equation (4.6), Dc is the distance that the preceding vehicle has travelled from

time ta to time tc, given by

1
Dc = vn −1 (τ + tnw ) + bn −1 (τ + tnw ) 2 ,
2
(4.7)

whereas Db is the distance that the following motorcycle has travelled from time ta to time

tc:

1 2
Db = vnτ + vntnw + bntnw .
2
(4.8)

Therefore, ∆Dnswerving in Equation (4.6) is formulated as:

1 2 1
∆Dnswerving = (vnτ + vnt nw + bnt nw ) − [vn−1 (τ + t nw ) + bn−1 (τ + t nw ) 2 ]
2 2
(4.9)

When a motorcycle is swerving away, its braking deceleration should be milder

than that without swerving. Therefore, a variable representing the braking deceleration

under the circumstance of swerving, b', is introduced to replace b, b'<0. Therefore, the

minimum following distance for a motorcycle to avoid collisions by swerving, ∆Dnswerving ,

can be formulated by combining Equations (4.5) and (4.9):

d nw 1 dw dw 1 dw
∆Dnswerving = [vnτ + vn ( w
) + bn'( nw ) 2 ] − {vn−1[τ + ( nw )] + bn−1[τ + ( nw )]2 }
v 2 v v 2 v
(4.10)

d nw 1 dw 1 2d w
∆Dnswerving = ∆vn (τ + w
) + (bn' − bn−1 )( nw ) 2 − bn−1τ (τ + wn ) ,
v 2 v 2 v
(4.11)
61
where vn is the speed difference, vn = vn -vn-1.

4.1.3 The minimum longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle

Equations (4.4) and (4.11) represent two constraints on the following distances of

motorcycles. Given that a motorcyclist is steering his bike based on the principle of

collision avoidance, the minimum longitudinal following distance he maintains, Dmin,

can be formulated as min{ Dunswerving , Dswerving }, i.e.

2 2 w w w
∆Dnmin =min{ vnτ − vn + vn−1 , ∆vn (τ + d nw ) + 1 (bn' − bn−1 )( d nw ) 2 − 1 bn−1τ (τ + 2dwn ) }.
2bn 2bn−1 v 2 v 2 v
(4.12)

This model implies that a swerving manoeuvre is always available for a motorcycle.

In lane based traffic, the clearances between lanes provide motorcycles pathways to make

progress. The opportunities for swerving to these pathways are always available in a

one-on-one vehicular interaction. However, when the clearance or pathway is blocked by

other vehicles, for example, the right pathway of motorcycle B is blocked by motorcycle

A in Figure 4.1, this model is not sufficient for describing such a multi-vehicular

interaction. Under this condition, other models such as the oblique & lateral headway

model or the path choice model should be introduced to describe the behaviour of

motorcycle B. These models are developed in the following sections.

4.1.4 Summary

The longitudinal headway model is developed based on the equations of motion

which present the kinematic movements of vehicles. This model focuses on depicting the

phenomenon that a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge

of the preceding vehicle. From the literature review, it is found that a critical limitation of

the existing models is unable to deal with the interaction between the following distance

and the lateral position of a motorcycle properly. This model tries to overcome this
62
limitation. The calibration and further specifications of this model are provided in Section

6.1.3.

4.2 The oblique & lateral headway model

The oblique headway is the safety distance a motorcyclist maintains when he is

following another vehicle obliquely, i.e. following at the rear left or rear right of a

preceding vehicle. Similarly, the lateral headway is the safety distance a motorcyclist

maintains when he is overtaking another vehicle, or following another vehicle laterally.

These two types of headway are differentiated according to the following angles. Thus,

they can be integrated into a single model as the following angle is taken into

consideration in this model.

4.2.1 The oblique headway

When a motorcyclist is following another vehicle obliquely, assessing the following

distance by employing the equations of motion would be complicated since the principle

of maintaining the following distance is not merely to avoid a rear-end collision. Some

lateral movements and unobservable psychological factors are also involved. Thus, this

oblique headway is described by a regression model. Several assumptions are made to

facilitate the modelling:

1) The factors that affect the oblique following distance are divided into two

components, the longitudinal gap and lateral gap.

2) It is assumed that there is an indifference curve of the oblique following distances

showing different combinations of the longitudinal gaps and lateral gaps. At each

point on the curve, a motorcyclist has no preference for one point over another

under a given traffic condition, i.e. the following distances on this curve

represent the same level of satisfaction for the motorcyclist.

63
 3) The shape of this indifference curve is assumed to be either an elliptic curve or a

line, as illustrated in Figure 4.3.

(a) (b)

Figure 4.3 The schematic diagram of the oblique following relationship

4) The longitudinal gap is assumed to be a function of the following angle, the speed

difference and the speed of the leading vehicle, whereas the lateral gap is

assumed to be a function of the following angle and the speed difference.

Accordingly, the oblique following distance is related to the longitudinal gap and

the lateral gap. The indifference curve can be described by either the equation of an

elliptic curve (Equation (4.13)) or the equation of the hypotenuse of a right triangle

(Equation (4.14)):

∆Dnoblique = alongitudin
2
al cos θ + alateral sin θ
2 2 2

(4.13)

alongitudinal × alateral
∆Dnoblique =
alongitudinal sin θ + alateral cos θ
(4.14)

where ∆Dnoblique is the oblique following distance, is the following angle (see Figure

4.4). alongitudinal is the longitudinal factor and alateral is the lateral factor.

64
 Figure 4.4 The schematic diagram of the oblique following distance

The longitudinal factor, alongitudinal, acts as the semimajor axis of the ellipse in

Equation (4.13), or as the longer leg of the right triangle in Equation (4.14). It is linked to

the speed difference vn and the speed of the leading vehicle vn-1:

alongitudinal = long0 + long1 vn + long2 vn-1,

(4.15)

where long0, long1 and long2 are coefficients.

Similarly, lateral is the lateral factor, acting as the semiminor axis of the ellipse or

the shorter leg of the triangle. The speed difference vn is used to describe this variable:

lateral = lat0 + lat1 vn,

(4.16)

where lat0 and lat1 are coefficients.

Finally, the oblique following distance can be formulated by combining the above

three equations:

∆Dnoblique = (α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) 2 cos 2 θ + (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn ) 2 sin 2 θ .

(4.17)

(α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn )

∆Dnoblique =
(α long 0 + α long1∆vn + α long 2 vn−1 ) sin θ + (α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn ) cos θ
(4.18)

4.2.2 The lateral headway

The lateral headway is the safety distance between a motorcycle and another vehicle

65
aside when the motorcyclist is overtaking or lateral following. This type of headway is a

special case of the oblique headway with the following angle equal to 90 . Thus, the

lateral headway is a function of the speed difference between these two vehicles.

∆Dnlateral = α lat 0 + α lat1∆vn

(4.19)

Figure 4.5 The schematic diagram of the overtaking relationship

4.2.3 Summary

The oblique & lateral headway model describes the headway distribution pattern of

motorcycles when they are following the preceding vehicles obliquely (or laterally). The

headway is modelled in a two-dimensional manner to depict the interaction between the

longitudinal movements and lateral movements of motorcycles. It can be applied to the

modelling of oblique following behaviour and overtaking behaviour of motorcycles.

4.3 The path choice model

In the previous sections, the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral

headway model have been developed to imitate the basic one-on-one interactions

between a motorcycle and another vehicle based on the principle of collision avoidance.

Although these collision-avoidance based models are useful in describing how a

motorcycle maintains a proper safety distance, they have limitations on representing how

a motorcyclist tries to choose a path actively and creatively to make his way through the

66
traffic jam when he is involved in a cluster of vehicles. Therefore, a model for describing

motorcyclists’ decision-making process of the path choice behaviour is required.

Based on the dynamic virtual lane-based nature (see Section 2.1.2) of motorcycles,

the path choice model aims to describe how a motorcyclist chooses the virtual lane. Such

a choice acts as the short-term plan for whether or not to make a lateral movement when a

motorcyclist is progressing in traffic. There are several factors involving in the

decision-making process. These factors are elaborated in the following and the

conceptual illustration of these factors is shown in Figure 4.6.

1) The speeds of the preceding vehicle and the objects beside the preceding

vehicle. These speeds reflect the driving conditions of the dynamic virtual lanes

that these vehicles (or objects) are currently in. When the motorcyclist is not

satisfied with the leading speed, he is likely to change his course for getting a

better driving condition. Otherwise the probability of staying on the current

course is usually high. It is then safe to say that the speeds of the objects in front

or at the oblique front will affect the choice of the following motorcyclist.

2) The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position. If the motorcyclist has

to leave the current course, he will choose a route which is closer to the current

position. The lateral distance he has to move to overtake will affect his choice.

3) The lateral clearances beside the preceding vehicle. The motorcyclist will

move toward a route with a larger clearance if he is not satisfied with the current

position.

4) The gap acceptance. The subject motorcycle will be constrained by the vehicles

aside or behind. Therefore, the gap acceptance of the subject motorcycle will

affect its lateral moving behaviour.

5) The size of the vehicle near the path. It is observed that motorcyclists do not

frequently drive alongside or behind a heavy vehicle for some reasons. For

67
 example, the heavy vehicle is likely to obstruct the view field of the following

vehicle, may cause more dust and emissions and may lead to more serious

injuries in an accident.

6) A lateral movement usually does not finish in one time step. Therefore, once a

motorcycle starts to move laterally, the choice of time t+1 is affected by the

choice of time t.

The vehicle near

the left path

The left path

(1)
(3)
(2)

(3)
The subject (2)
motorcycle
(1)
The right path

(1) The lateral clearance beside

the preceding vehicle.
(2) The lateral distance to the
ready-to-overtake position. The vehicle near
(3) The interaction from the the right path
vehicle behind or aside.

Figure 4.6 The schematic diagram of the path choice decision

The path choice behaviour is proposed to be modelled by using a multinomial logit

model. The utility of a motorcyclist n to choose a path i can be express as:

U in = Vin + ε in , for all i ∈ Cn ,

(4.20)

where Vin is the systematic component, in is the random component and Cn is the choice

set. There are three alternatives in the choice set Cn. As shown in Figure 4.6, when the

subject motorcycle is not satisfied with the current position, it usually has three paths to

move on: a) shifting leftwards, b) keeping straight and c) shifting rightwards. Given that

68
the systematic components of these alternatives chosen by motorcycle n are Vl, Vc and Vr

respectively, then these alternatives can be formulated according to the attributes

discussed earlier. They are:

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 2 forceFl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc+ 2 forceFc + 3 sizec

Vr = r + 1 speedr+ 2 forceFr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(4.21)

where l and r are the alternative-specific constants. 1, 2, 3…, 7 are unknown

coefficients to be estimated. The attributes are defined as:

speed : the speed of the vehicle near the path,

forceF : the interaction with the vehicle ahead,

size : the size of the vehicle near the path,

dist : the lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position,

clear : the lateral clearances beside the preceding vehicle,

forceR : the interaction with the vehicle aside and behind and

last : the choice of the last time step.

Then a multinomial logit model defines the probability for the motorcyclist n to

choose path i as:

e µVin
Pn (i ) = µV
e jn
j∈C n
(4.22)

where µ is the scale parameter. Since this parameter is not identifiable, conventionally

an arbitrary value, 1, is given (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985a).

Equations (4.21) and (4.22) describe the path choice behaviour of a motorcyclist.

This model adopts the concept of dynamic virtual lane which is defined by the vehicles in

the subject motorcycle’s surroundings. This feature is the most important factor to

characterise the difference between this model and the lane-based models. The estimation
69
and refinement of this model will be presented in Section 6.3.

4.4 Conclusions

Three models were proposed in this chapter, namely the longitudinal headway

model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path choice model. These models

aimed at describing the fundamental elements which caused the unique behaviour

patterns of motorcycles. In addition, these models tried to deal with the limitations found

in the literature, for example, to describe the interaction between the longitudinal

following distance and the lateral position, and to depict the dynamic virtual lane-based

movements. It was assumed that by capturing these features, the behaviour of motorcycle

could be described more accurately. The calibration and applications of these models are

presented in Chapters 6 and 7.

70
5 Data Collection

In Chapter 4, the models that focus on capturing motorcycle behaviour are

described. To obtain proper parameters for these models, calibration has to be carried out

based on field data. This chapter describes the approach to field data collection. In the

first section, 5.1, the data requirements for the calibration process are described. This will

clarify and facilitate the choice of data collection methods, which is discussed in the

second section. In the next two sections, 5.3 and 5.4, the process of data collection, data

extraction and data processing is provided. The accuracy of the database is also discussed.

A summary will be presented in the final part.

5.1 Types of data required

Before describing the data collection process, a description of the types of data

required is first presented. This facilitates the assessment of available data collection

methods so that a proper one can be chosen.

The data required can be grouped into three categories: observable data, latent data

and environmental data. The data in the first two categories support the calibration

process of the models described in Chapter 4, whereas the data in the last category are

needed at the stage of microscopic computer simulation developed in Chapter 7. These

three categories of data are described as follows:

The observable data

In this study, the observable data refer to the trajectories of a motorcycle and the

vehicles in its surroundings, including their sizes. From these data, a variety of traffic

parameters for the model calibration process in this study can be generated. These

parameters include the basic kinematic parameters (e.g. speed, direction, acceleration and

71
deceleration) and the inter-vehicular interactions (e.g. following distance and speed

difference). The macroscopic parameters such as flow density can also be calculated. The

collection of these observable data and the generation of the basic kinematic parameters

are described later in this chapter.

The latent data

The latent data required for this study are reaction time, desired speed, desired

deceleration, desired deceleration difference and desired lateral speed. These data types

are important parameters for the collision avoidance models (for example, Gipps, 1981).

The estimations or assumptions of these latent data are presented in Chapter 6.

The environmental data

The environmental data refer to road geometry and traffic regulations, for instance,

road layout and speed limit. Motorcyclists in different environment could exhibit

different types of behaviour. For example, the behavioural difference between

motorcycling in urban networks and on the highway is significant. Therefore, it is

necessary to capture these characteristics in the microscopic traffic simulation model

developed in this study. The investigations and assumptions of the environmental data are

described in Chapter 7.

5.2 Data collection method

The measurement procedures for obtaining traffic data can be largely divided into

five categories. They are a) measurement at a point; b) measurement over a short section

less than about 10 m; c) measurement over a length of road, usually at least 500 m; d) the

use of instrumented vehicles; and e) wide-area samples obtained simultaneously from a

number of vehicles, as part of Intelligent Transportation Systems (Hall, 1999).

The traffic parameters of interest in this study are the highly accurate vehicular

72
trajectory data. Such data are able be obtained through two procedures: the video

recording method and the floating-car method. The former, based on categories c) and e)

in the definition of Hall (1999), uses video cameras fixed at elevated positions to record

the traffic flow whilst the floating-car method are based on categories d) and e),

employing vehicles equipped with sensors to measure motions and interactions of the

target vehicles.

In this section, firstly the advantages and disadvantages of these two methods are

discussed. Then the reasons for choosing the video recording method are given. Finally

the accuracy of the data collected by this method is described.

5.2.1 Video data versus floating-car data

A major advantage of video data is that it can obtain all the trajectories and sizes of

the vehicles in a traffic stream objectively. Another merit is that the video footage can be

reviewed and examined repeatedly, if necessary, to guarantee the quality of the data

extracted. In addition, it is an un-intrusive and naturalistic observation which ensures that

the normal behaviour can be observed and the data collected are not affected by the

presence of researchers. However, extracting data from video footage is an extremely

labour-intensive process, which is the main disadvantage of this method. According to

Taylor and Young (1988), the analysis process can take up to six times as long as the real

time recording. However, even this seems to be an underestimate. Ahmed (1999) reported

that an hour’s video footage requires 1,800 person-hours to process. It is understood that

how much work is needed depends on the types of data required and the traffic conditions.

Another disadvantage of this method is that there is only a limited survey area, around

200 m (Hidas and Wagner, 2004) to 400 m (Slinn et al., 1998), depending on the

resolution of the images and the field of view of the camera. The requirement of an

elevated position is also a limitation of this method.

73
 The advantage of the floating-car method is that the data processing is simpler than

in the case of the video recording method. The video recording can obtain only a

sequence of still images to which a time-consuming procedure has to be employed to get

accurate parameters, whereas the floating-car method can directly collect the useful

parameters, depending on the sensors employed. Another advantage of the floating-car

method is that the floating car can be equipped with a wide range of sensors, including

camcorders (for example, used by Olsen and Wierwille, 2001). Despite these merits, the

floating-car method has some limitations. First, the data can only be collected from a

limited number of instrumented vehicles. Another disadvantage is that the drivers under

surveillance could behave differently than usual. In addition, the data collecting ability of

this method depends on the function of the equipment fitted on the instrumented vehicle

because each sensor can only acquire a certain type of information, i.e. position, speed or

distance. In order to obtain a complete picture of the surroundings, the vehicles need to be

well-designed and well-equipped. This will make the whole process expensive. Another

limitation of this method is that the surrounding environment will affect the behaviour of

the instrument vehicles and, thus, the context of the experimental environment has to be

set-up carefully (Hidas and Wagner, 2004).

When evaluating data collection methods, the accuracy of the data acquired is an

important issue to be considered. However, it is difficult, in general, to compare the

accuracy of the data obtained from these categories because the accuracy of the data

collected by the floating-car method depends on the equipment used. Therefore, the

comparison is not made in this section. Instead, this issue is discussed in Section 5.2.3

after the data collection method for this study has been chosen.

5.2.2 Choosing the data collection method

The calibration process in this study relies heavily on precise multiple vehicle

74
trajectory data. In addition, some types of macroscopic data, such as flow density are also

required. With the floating-car method, the data types collected depend on the ability of

the sensors on the instrumented vehicle. An extra data type will need an additional sensor

or device. This means that it is difficult and expensive to obtain some required parameters

of this study, for example, detecting the trajectories of all the vehicles in surroundings. In

contrast, the main strength of the video recording method is to record everything that

happens in the traffic flow. In addition, video camcorders are comparatively simple and

affordable, compared to the cost for the floating-car method. Therefore, the video

recording method is employed by this study.

5.2.3 Accuracy of the data acquired by the video recording method

The accuracy of the video recording method depends on the pixel resolution of the

video images, so the trade-off between pixel resolution and field of view has to be

considered. For example, a telephoto image provides a high resolution but has a limited

survey area whereas a wide angle image accommodates more information but has a

limited resolution. Therefore, a camcorder with a higher definition or a larger focal length

factor will be more flexible to provide data with higher accuracy. The literature shows

that different extents of accuracy, from 0.3 m to 1.3 m, have been reported (for example,

Hasan et al., 1997; Ahmed, 1999; Khan and Raksuntorn, 2001; Hoogendoorn et al., 2003;

Hidas, 2005). If the data accuracy can reach such a standard, it should be sufficient for

calibrating the models proposed in Chapter 4.

5.3 Data collection

As explained in the preceding section, the data for this study were collected by

video camcorders. A highly detailed video-captured database containing information on

the vehicular trajectories was built. The sequence for data collection and data processing

75
is shown in Figure 5.1.

Record traffic flow from a

selected traffic link

Convert video footage to a

proper digital format

Extract vehicular trajectories

and vehicle sizes

Generate data required

Figure 5.1 Data collection and processing sequence

In this section, firstly the camcorder chosen for this study is described, which is

followed by the descriptions of the time and site for the survey. Then the characteristics of

the data extraction programme are reported. Finally the database obtained is presented.

5.3.1 Video recording equipment

The data were collected by using two Sony DCR-HC32 NTSC MiniDV digital

camcorders. Sony DCR-HC32 was chosen because this model is capable of providing

video images with resolution up to 720 by 480 at a frame rate of approximately 29.97 fps

(frames pre second). It can record the video signal on MiniDV tape in digital form, which

has the advantage over analogue of suffering little or no generation loss in recording and

editing. It also facilitates the conversion, compression and backup of the video files

during the data extracting process. In addition, Sony DCR-HC32 has a very large focal

length factor, which equals the focal length ranged from 44 to 880 mm (Sony Corporation,

2005) of a 35 mm full-frame camera. Moreover, it is a consumer electronics product

which can be obtained at an affordable price. Due to these characteristics, this model has

76
sufficient flexibility to provide video footage with high accuracy.

One critical issue of using camcorders for moving object tracking is that the lens

distortion of the machine should be calibrated carefully (Tsai, 1987; Hoogendoorn et al.,

2003). A camcorder with lens distortion means that, under certain conditions, images

from a camcorder cannot precisely depict the shape of the objects in the real world. For

example, with the camcorder, a straight line is represented as a curved line. The extent of

distortion is more noticeable at the edges of the images than at the centre. In photography,

the lens distortion is linked to the focal length of the lens system. Usually, using

wide-angle lenses tend to exhibit barrel distortions whereas the telephoto lenses lead to

pincushion distortions. The distortions of the images from Sony DCR-HC32 are shown in

Figure 5.2.

Telephoto zoom Wide-angle zoom

Figure 5.2 The lens distortion test of Sony DCR-HC32

From these images, it is found that this machine controls pincushion distortions well

at telephoto zooms. However, slight barrel distortions can be found at wide-angle zooms.

Hence, when collecting data by using a wide-angle zoom, the correction for lens

distortions is needed.

5.3.2 Time and site of the data survey

Time

The video footage was captured from 17:00 to 18:00 (British Summer Time) on
77
10th May 2005. It was a sunny afternoon in late spring, which provided good visibility for

obtaining high quality video images. It should be noted that the pavement was dry when

the data were collected.

Site

A section of the Victoria Embankment in London was selected for this study (Figure

5.3b). This site was chosen for two reasonsii: a) there was an overhead pedestrian bridge

at the site which provided a proper high vantage point to take video footage of the traffic

stream, and b) the geometric design of the link made it easy to observe the interaction

between and amongst vehicles. The schematic diagram of the survey site is shown in

Figure 5.3a. The details of this site are described below:

1) Geometric characteristics: The survey area, which was 80.00 m long and 8.54

m wide, was the south bound traffic stream of this link (see also Figure 5.4a). It

consisted of two lanes at the far end and three lanes at the near end. At the far end,

on-street parking was permitted. Two sightseeing bus stopsiii were located at the

middle part of the site. The south of the near end was the stop line of a signalised

pedestrian crossing.

2) Traffic characteristics in the survey area: As vehicles moved southwards from

the far end, it was a two-lane traffic flow which used the road space of 8.54 m

wide. However, when the on-street parking spaces or the bus stops were

occupied, the width of the two-lane traffic was narrowed down from 8.54 m to

around 6 m. Under these circumstances, the vehicles had to change their

directions and speeds to adapt to the narrow path. Between the bus stops and the

signalised pedestrian crossing, the road space was divided into three lanes.

ii
These traffic features described in this section remain to the present.
iii
The periods that the sightseeing buses park at these stops could last for more than 5 minutes.
78
 N

On-street
Survey Area
parking space

Bus Stops

Signalised Pedestrian
Crossing

80 m

Camcorder

85 m
Pedestrian Bridge
Pedestrian Bridge
Railway Bridge

Waterloo Bridge

(a) Embankment Survey Site

Station
River Thames
Charing Cross
Station

(b)

Figure 5.3 The schematic diagram of the survey siteiv

iv
The photo in Figure 5.3b was retrieved from Google Maps.
79
 3) The opposing traffic stream: The opposing stream was the north bound traffic

with two lanes. Between the north bound stream and the south bound stream was

a central reservation, which completely separated the flows between the two

directions. Thus, the north bound traffic stream did not affect the traffic of the

survey site.

4) The traffic downstream: After passing the pedestrian crossing, the south bound

traffic had three lanes. Although next intersection was 85 m away, from which

the queue for right-turn on the outer lane could extend to the survey area. Once

the queue reached the middle part of the survey area and the bus stop was loaded,

there was only one lane available at this section. Thus, the south bound traffic

was forced to merge from two lanes into one when passing the bus stops.

The geometric and traffic characteristics of this survey area provided an

environment to observe the interactions amongst vehicles, including filtering, queuing,

discharging, merging, lane-changing, and stop and go behaviour. In addition, in such

environment, vehicles (including motorcycles and other types of vehicles) had to interact

not only with the vehicle ahead, but also with the vehicles at lateral and oblique directions.

All this made this survey site suitable for observing the motorcycle behaviour patterns

discussed in Section 2.3.

Equipment

Two Sony DCR-HC32 digital camcorders were set up on the pedestrian bridge to

collect data. One camcorder was used to record the traffic stream (Figure 5.4a). In order

to obtain a better pixel resolution, the corner of the outer lane on the near side was

cropped out of the field of view. This improved the pixel resolution by around 16%. These

images were captured using a focal length at the middle range of the machine, at which

no correction of lens distortions was needed. The other camcorder recorded the vehicles

80
from a bird’s-eye view for measuring the widths and lengths of vehicles, as shown in

Figure 5.4b.

Survey area

80.00m

8.54m
(a) (b)

Figure 5.4 Images for extracting trajectories and measuring vehicle dimensions

5.3.3 The data extracting system

The vehicular trajectories in video images can be extracted either manually or by

using an automatic image processing technique. Although the use of image processing

software can save a lot of time and cost, the technique for detecting vehicles which are

mutually overlapping in the video images is still under development (for example,

Veeraraghavan et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2006). In order to control the quality of the data, the

vehicle trajectories were extracted manually in this study. To this end, a computer tool,

programmed by using Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0, was developed.

The data extracting process in this study was similar to that of VEVID (Wei et al.,

2005). First, this computer programme displayed video images on screen by a specified

frame processing interval. At the same time, the researcher tracked the path of a selected

target vehicle, frame by frame, by marking its positions on the screen with mouse clicks.
81
Thus, a sequence of video image coordinates was obtained, which was then converted

into real-world coordinates and recorded into the database.

Developing a new data extracting system had many advantages. The most important

one was its flexibility in expanding new functions. For example, the other software

packages available at the time of the data collection did not provide some customised

functions, such as the verification tools or the zoom-in function, developed in this

programme. These features ensure the quality and accuracy of the data. The settings and

functions of this system are described below.

5.3.3.1 User interface

Figure 5.5 shows a screenshot of this system. The user can track the trajectories of

vehicles and operate this system via a Windows-based graphical user interface.

Figure 5.5 Screenshot of the new data collection system

5.3.3.2 The computer monitor and pixel resolution

In this study, an hp-1702 17-inch LCD monitor with a resolution of 1024 by 768
82
pixels was employed for this data extracting work. The dimensions of the screen area are

336 mm wide by 270 mm height.

The original resolution of the video footage surveyed was 720 by 480 pixels. Each

pixel represented 56 mm (longitudinal) by 16 mm (lateral) on the near side and 554 mm

(longitudinal) by 53 mm (lateral) on the far side of the survey area. The video images

were resized to 990 by 660 pixels to facilitate data extracting when displaying on the

monitor. The scales of the objects shown on the screen were 1:172 (longitudinal) and 1:46

(lateral) on the near side; 1:1,689 (longitudinal) and 1:150 (lateral) on the far side of the

survey area. The details of the image quality are listed in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 The resolution of the video images

Distance from Pixel resolution (mm/pixel) Scale of objects shown on hp-1702
the near side (m) Longitudinal Lateral Longitudinal Lateral
0 56 16 1:172 1:46
20 133 25 1:404 1:72
40 241 35 1:734 1:98
60 382 44 1:1,165 1:124
80 554 53 1:1,689 1:150

5.3.3.3 Video format

The data extracting system uses digital video footage with AVI format as the input

file. AVI (Audio Video Interleave) is a multimedia format introduced by Microsoft in

1992 as part of the Video for Windows technology. The main reason for using this format

is its compatibility with the MCI (Media Control Interface) programming library

provided by Microsoft.

The video footage has to be converted to AVI format before it is registered to the

data extracting system. The system will display the video images frame by frame,

according to the given video frame processing interval. The user can then track the

vehicular trajectories by mouse clicks.

83
5.3.3.4 The zoom-in function

This programme can resize the images and display a selected area on the screen to

facilitate data extraction. Although resizing the images improve neither the resolution nor

the quality of the images, a larger picture on the screen can reduce the human error during

the data extracting process.

5.3.3.5 The trajectory tracking function

This programme can display the video images by an adjustable video frame

processing interval, which was set to be 1 sec in this study. The researcher is able to tracks

the path of a target vehicle by clicking the mouse on a distinguishable point of the vehicle

on the frames displayed. Then, this programme converts the coordinates from the selected

distinguishable point to the front central point and records the trajectory. In this system,

six distinguishable points for tracking the movements of vehicles are provided: front left,

front central, front right, rear left, rear central and rear right points. In addition, the

position of the motorcyclist’s head is also used to track the trajectory when the

motorcycle is hidden behind other vehicles. These points are shown in Figure 5.6.

Researchers can choose any of the six points to track the trajectory.

Front left point

The head of the rider

Rear left point Front left point Front central

point
Rear left point width
Rear central
point width
Rear central Front central
point point
Rear right
point
length Front right point length
Rear right point Front right point

Figure 5.6 The schematic diagram of the measured dimensions of vehicles

84
5.3.3.6 Projective model

When the trajectories of vehicles have been tracked, the data are recorded by using

the video image coordinates, which need to be converted to the real-world coordinates

(Figure 5.7) for further analyses. Hence, a projective model was built in this data

extracting system to accomplish this task.

Precisely inferring the three-dimensional information from the video image

coordinates is computationally intensive (Tsai, 1987). The literature shows that several

simplified approaches have been used for converting coordinates between two planes.

These approaches are discussed below:

Converting coordinates between two planes can be straightforwardly achieved by

linear scaling, if these two plains are parallel and the effects of perspective are omitted.

Usually, this approach is used when the video images are recorded from a bird’s-eye view,

as in the study of Hoogendoorn et al. (2003). However, it is usually difficult to record the

traffic flow from a vertical view angle because a very highly elevated position is needed

for this view angle.

(0,0) y video (0,660)

(pixel)
Indication of the four
reference points for
calibration

(343,141) y real (m)

(5.42,0.00)
(0.00,8.54)

xvideo Projective model

(626,488) (59.05,8.54)
(62.75,0.00)
(641,18)

xreal

(936,621)
(990,0) (80.00,0.00) (80.00,8.54)
(990,660)
(pixel) (m)
(a) Video image coordinate system (b) Real-world coordinate system

Figure 5.7 The conversion of the coordinates between the video image and the real world

85
 When considering the effects of perspective, the conversion is more difficult. Wei et

al. (2005) dealt with this issue by using ‘conversion ratios’. They marked a sequence of

reference points in the study area and measured the conversion ratios between these

points. The coordinates between two planes could then be converted via these conversion

ratios. The main weakness of this method is the discontinuity of the conversion ratios.

Between two conversion ratios, there is a gap between the real world coordinates. This

will inevitably cause errors when calculating distances covering more than one reference

points. Therefore, the accuracy of the conversion depends on the number of the reference

points. This weakness can, however, be overcome by using a regression model to convert

the coordinates as in Teknomo et al.(2000). The accuracy of this approach relies on the

model setting. Some statistics measures such as r 2 can be used to examine the

conversion outcomes.

In photogrammetry, the mapping of the coordinates between two planes can be

written as Equation (5.1) (Mikhail et al., 2001):

α1 xvideo + α 2 yvideo + α 3
xreal =
α 4 xvideo + α 5 yvideo + 1
,
α x + α 7 yvideo + α 8
yreal = 6 video
α 4 xvideo + α 5 yvideo + 1
(5.1)

where ( xreal , yreal ) is the real-world coordinate, ( xvideo , yvideo ) is the video image coordinate

and α1 to α8 are coefficients. This formula can convert the video image coordinates to

the real world coordinates (or vice versa) after the eight coefficients have been computed.

The commercial software ViVAtraffic (The ViVAtraffic-Team, 2007), Khan and

Raksuntorn (2001) and Minh et al. (2006) have employed this approach for converting

coordinates. To obtain the coefficients of this model, the coordinates of four reference

points in the real world and their counterparts in the video images should be measured.

Three of these four points must not lie in a straight line. However, this mathematical
86
model also has some limitations when adopted by this study. Firstly, the traffic stream in

the real world should be on a plane, i.e. not on a concave or convex slope. Secondly, the

lens distortions need to be converted in advance.

In this study, since the traffic stream in the real world was on a plane and the lens

distortion of the video footage was mild, Equation (5.1) was adopted to convert

coordinates. The coordinate systems of the two planes are defined as in Figure 5.7. Four

points were measured both from the survey area and from the video image, as listed in

Table 5.2.

Table 5.2 The list of reference points

Coordinate
Real-world (m) Video image (pixel)
Point 1 (62.57, 0.00) (641, 18)
Point 2 (80.00, 8.54) (937, 621)
Point 3 (59.05, 8.54) (626, 488)
Point 4 (5.42, 0.00) (343, 141)

The parameters of the model for converting coordinates from the video image to the

real world were obtained as Equation (5.2) whereas the model for converting coordinates

from the real world to the video image was as Equation (5.3).

− 2.450656 xvideo + 0.193725 yvideo + 781.043850

xreal =
− 0.021173 xvideo + 0.002259 yvideo + 1
− 0.084754 xvideo − 0.205340 yvideo + 58.023744
yreal =
− 0.021173 xvideo + 0.002259 yvideo + 1
(5.2)

− 0.647388 xreal + 3.022358 yreal + 330.269569

xvideo =
− 0.008735 xreal + 0.002759 yreal + 1
− 2.201130 xreal + 27.108294 yreal + 146.254507
yvideo =
− 0.008735 xreal + 0.002759 yreal + 1
(5.3)

87
5.3.3.7 The length measuring function

This programme provides a function for measuring lengths and distances. By

clicking two points on the images, this programme can calculate the distance between

these two points in the real-world coordinates. This function can be used to measure the

length and width of the vehicles.

5.3.3.8 Recording vehicle types

Different vehicle types usually exhibit different behaviour although some of them

have similar sizes. For example, motorcycles and bicycles present different speeds and

accelerations, but road spaces they occupied are similar. It is thus necessary to mark them

when extracting the data.

In this study, the vehicles in the video images were categorised into five groups:

motorcycles, passenger cars, vans, buses and bicycles. The types of vehicles were

recognised and recorded while extracting the trajectories.

5.3.3.9 The verification tools

Two mechanisms for verifying the data have been developed. One is overlaying the

data to the video images, i.e. projecting the information extracted onto the original video

frames by using Equation (5.3). A screenshot of this function is shown in Figure 5.5. This

means that the sizes and locations of the vehicles in the database can be visually reviewed.

The other verification tool is the animated display of the trajectories from a top-view

angle (Figure 5.8). The animation is presented by using an orthographic coordinate

system from the top-view. Hence, the movements of vehicles can then be examined

without the effects of perspective. These two functions can be used to probe the manual

mistakes when extracting data.

88
 Figure 5.8 The animated display of the extracted trajectories

5.4 The database

The whole process for extracting data from the video footage was extremely

time-consuming. In this study, it required approximately 200 person-hours to produce one

hour of video data, including the time for data collection, video file conversion, trajectory

extracting and data cleaning. If the density of the flow in the video was higher, more time

was needed. After extracting the trajectories from the video footage and some work of

data processing, a database was finally built.

In this section, the approach of calculating the basic data types in the database is

discussed. Then a brief description of the database is presented and the accuracy of the

data is described.

5.4.1 Preliminary data processing

The data processing in this study was done in two stages. The first stage was the

preliminary data processing, which was carried out soon after the trajectories had been

extracted. In this stage, the basic kinematic parameters of each vehicle were calculated to

constitute the database. The second stage was the advanced data processing, which was

the procedure of retrieving information from the established database. It was conducted

before analysing the interactions between and amongst vehicles such as following

distances and speed differences. The details of extracting the basic kinematic

89
characteristics are given in the subsections below whereas the advanced processing will

be described in Chapter 6.

Directions of vehicles

Two types of vehicle directions were calculated by this system: the steering

direction and the body direction. The steering direction is the one by which a vehicle is

moving. This type of direction is usually identical with the orientation of the front

wheel(s). In this study, the steering direction was used to calculate the lateral speeds of the

vehicles, to estimate the longitudinal speed differences between vehicles and to calibrate

the path choice model.

The body direction indicates the body orientation of a vehicle, which represents the

road space that this vehicle is currently occupying. In this study, the body direction was

used for estimating the four corners of a vehicle. Thus, the calculation of the body

direction would affect the estimation of the following distances and the calibration results

of the headway models in this study. When a vehicle is changing its direction, the

difference between the steering direction and the body direction is sometimes significant

and not distinguishing them would affect the results of the model calibrations.

The steering direction was calculated by the difference of the locations between two

time steps, as shown in Figure 5.9. It was formulated as follows:

yn ,t − yn ,t −1
θ nsteer
,t = tan −1 ( ) , where
xn ,t − xn, t −1
(5.4)

θ n,steer
t : the steering direction of vehicle n at time step t;

xn,t : the longitudinal position of the front central point of vehicle n at time step t;

yn,t : the lateral position of the front central point of vehicle n at time step t.

90
 (xn,t,yn,t)

θ n,steer
t
(xn,t-1,yn,t-1)

Figure 5.9 The conceptual illustration of the steering direction

To calculate the body direction of a vehicle by using merely the data of its trajectory

can be more complex. It is linked to the wheelbase and the length between the front

bumper and the front wheels. These variables are not measured in this study because they

are difficult to be observed from an elevated position. Therefore, a simple equation was

proposed to estimate the direction of the vehicle body, i.e. by calculating the positions of

the front bumper at current time step and the rear bumper at last time step, as shown in

Figure 5.10. The formula was as follows:

yn, t − yrc , n ,t −1
θ nbody
,t = tan −1 ( ) , where
xn, t − xrc , n, t −1
(5.5)

θ n,body
t : the direction of the body of vehicle n at time step t;

xrc,n,t-1 : the longitudinal position of the rear central point of vehicle n at time step t-1;

yrc,n,t-1 : the lateral position of the rear central point of vehicle n at time step t-1.

(xn,t,yn,t)

θ n,body
t
(xrc,n,t-1,yrc,n,t-1)

Figure 5.10 The conceptual illustration of the body direction

91
 Edges of vehicles

In this study, both two-wheeled and four-wheeled vehicles are assumed to be

rectangular, although their shape could be irregular from the top-view. Thus, the area

occupied by each vehicle could be represented by the four corners of a rectangle and the

direction of the vehicle body. The dimensions are measured from the widest and the

longest parts of the vehicle. The width of a motorcycle is defined as the width of its

handlebar, as shown in Figure 5.6.

Kinematic characteristics

The data of basic kinematic parameters, such as speed, acceleration and

deceleration of each vehicle at every time step, were also calculated and recorded into the

database. The formulae are as follows:

( x n , t − x n , t −1 ) 2 + ( y n , t − y n , t −1 ) 2
vn , t = ,
∆t
(5.6)

where vn, t is the speed of vehicle n at time step t and an,t is its acceleration (or

deceleration) which is calculated with

vn, t − vn, t −1
an , t = .
∆t
(5.7)

5.4.2 Description of the database

By using the data extracting system, a database, with 42,711 observations

containing information on the trajectories of 2,109 vehicles, including 477 motorcycles

and 1,293 passenger cars, was built (Table 5.3). Each vehicle which appeared in the video

footage was issued a serial number. The time series data of each vehicle were recorded,

including its width and length, its video image and real-world coordinates, its steering and

body directions, speeds, accelerations and decelerations. By using this database, all the

92
observable data described in Section 5.1 could be generated.

Table 5.3 reveals the numbers of the vehicles observed in the video footage.

Motorcycle took up 22.6% of the flow in this link at the time data were surveyed. This

figure is surprisingly high compared with figures from the DfT (2005a), in which

motorcycles represent only around 1% of all traffic in Great Britain in 2003. This figure

also means that this link provides a good environment for motorcycle behaviour studies.

Table 5.3 Numbers of vehicles surveyed

Vehicle type Frequency Percent
Motorcycle 477 22.6
Passenger car 1,293 61.3
Van 71 3.4
Heavy vehicle 47 2.2
Bicycle 221 10.5

Total 2,109 100.0

5.4.3 Accuracy of the database

Although the data collection approach in this study provides highly detailed

information about the traffic flow, accuracy of the data is still an issue of utmost concern.

In Section 5.2.3 the accuracy of the data acquired by using the video recording method is

discussed. The literature shows that the extent of accuracy is around 0.3 m to 1.3 m.

Theoretically, when the error caused by manual operation is controlled properly, the

margin of error ranges in the size of a pixel. Thus, the measure of the positions involves

an uncertainty of double the pixel resolution because the value could be overestimated or

underestimated. In this study, under ideal conditions, the measurements involve

uncertainties of 0.06 m (longitudinal) by 0.02 m (lateral) on the near side and 0.55 m

(longitudinal) by 0.05 m (lateral) on the far side (see Table 5.1). These values show that

this approach has the potential to acquire extremely high accuracy data. However, in

practice the data contained more errors because many factors had caused uncertainty in
93
the data collection process. These factors are discussed as follows:

Error caused by manual operation

It was difficult to ensure that the trajectories of vehicles were all tracked by the

pixel-level accuracy, especially when it was operated manually. The size of a pixel from

the video image showing on the computer screen (hp-1702 LCD monitor) was originally

around 0.33 mm. Even though it was enlarged by using the zoom-in function (see Section

5.3.3.4) of this data extraction system, the size was as small as around 0.49 mm/pixel.

With this size, it still could not rule out the probability of manual errors during the data

extraction process.

The systematic error due to the pixel resolution

The data collected from the nearside have higher pixel resolution. This means that

the error of the data increases along with the longitudinal distance systematically. This

might cause problems when using the data.

This perspective problem can be solved if images from the bird’s-eye view are

available. Another possible solution is to consider this error in the models which use this

data set. Thus, an error term to represent this inaccuracy could be added to the models

and the variance of this error term is linearly related to the longitudinal distance.

The systematic error caused by the view angle

There are errors caused by the view angles between the observer and the vehicles.

The magnitude of this type of error depends on the sight angle and the height of the

object observed. As shown in Figure 5.11, when extracting data from the video footage,

the data for vehicles on the far side or with higher chassis would contain larger errors.

94
 Observing point

Possible error Possible error Possible error

Figure 5.11 The errors caused by perspective and sight angles

To reduce these errors, the camcorders should be located at as high a position as

possible. However, such a position sometimes is unavailable. In this study, an alternative

method was used to reduce this error: using the shadow of the object to recognise its

position. During the data survey period, rays of the sun were nearly parallel to the

bumpers of vehicles. The shadows of the vehicles offered more information for

indicating the longitudinal location of the front bumpers of vehicles (see Figure 5.5).

Therefore, the errors caused by perspective could be reduced. Despite this, it is

important to be noted that the rays of the sun change angle with time and so does the

relative position of a vehicle and its shadow. However, this factor can be omitted as the

relative locations of vehicles and the kinematic parameters will not be influenced.

Errors from the occlusion in images

Besides the problems with sight angles, another critical issue is to recognise

vehicles which are mutually overlapping in images. When the colours of the

overlapping vehicles are similar, it was difficult to recognise their edges precisely. This

would inevitably affect the accuracy of the data.

A possible solution for this problem is to take the video from the bird’s-eye view. In

this study, the extracting system provides a function to use the locations of

motorcyclists’ heads to help the recognition. In addition, the shadows are used to

recognise the occlusion in images.

95
 Errors from the estimation of the vehicle edges

It has been discussed in Section 5.4.1 that the vehicles were assumed to be

rectangular in this study. Based on this assumption, Equation (5.5) was employed to

estimate the directions of the vehicle bodies by which the edges of vehicles could be

represented effortlessly. However, two factors could cause inaccuracy in this approach.

The first one was the calculation of the vehicle direction could contain errors. This

happened because Equation (5.5) was just a simplified formula which did not capture all

the factors affecting the movements of the vehicle body. The other factor was the error

arising from assuming that the edges of vehicles were rectangular. As shown in Figure 5.6,

the rectangular area was always larger than the actual area a vehicle occupied.

Nevertheless, given the computational time and resources of this study, this approach

seemed to be the best solution to describe the edges of vehicles, albeit with some

weaknesses.

Discussions

Considering the aforementioned errors, the accuracy of the data in this study is not

as high as that shown in Table 5.1. It is also difficult to measure how these factors affected

the accuracy of the data. However, it would be reasonable to state that this database has

higher data accuracy on the near side and on the lateral direction in comparison with the

data of other studies (with accuracy of around 0.3 m to 1.3 m, see Section 5.2.3). The

reasons that this database has higher accuracy are: a) the pixel resolution of the original

video images is higher, b) the data are extracted manually and c) the data extraction

programme provides some customised functions to ensure the data quality.

The aim of building this database is to calibrate the headway models and the path

choice model developed in Chapter 4. However, the accuracy of the data on the far side

might not be high enough for conducting some analyses. Therefore, when using the

database, the difference of accuracy on the longitudinal distance should be taken into

96
consideration.

It is worthwhile to discuss the effects of the shadows caused by the sun in video.

From the experience of this study, it is found that taping the video footage in a sunny

day will provide more clues to identify the trajectories of vehicles. Interestingly, the

manual of the video processing software ViVatraffic (The ViVAtraffic-Team, 2007)

makes a different suggestion. It suggests that the recordings should be done under a

cloudy sky to avoid shadows. The reason is that when this software recognises vehicles

automatically by comparing the actual image with its background image, the shadows

will be interpreted as a part of a vehicle. This means that if there are fewer shadows, fewer

misinterpretations will be caused. Therefore, when taping the video for trajectory

extracting, the relationship between the daylight conditions and data extracting

techniques should be taken into account.

5.5 Summary

This chapter presented the development of a highly detailed video-captured

database containing information on the trajectories of 2,109 vehicles from a section of the

Victoria Embankment in London. The video was recorded near a traffic signal, so the

interactions between vehicles could be observed. A computer programme was developed

to extract trajectories and sizes of the vehicles from the video images. The database built

by this programme also included the types, widths and lengths of the vehicles. From this

database, a wide range of relevant traffic parameters could be generated for further

analyses and model calibrations.

97
6 Model Calibration

The models proposed in Chapter 4 to describe the behaviour of motorcycles are

calibrated here. Calibration is a process of adjusting and determining a set of parameters

in a model by using observed data. Its purpose is to facilitate the accuracy of the model

outputs. In this chapter, the calibration process is carried out based on the database of

Chapter 5. The calibration results are detailed in the following sections.

6.1 The longitudinal headway model

The calibration results of the longitudinal headway model will be presented in this

section. This section begins with a description of how the data set for this calibration was

retrieved from the database. Section 6.1.2 examines the basic assumption of this model,

i.e. a motorcycle would have a shorter headway when following the preceding vehicle by

aligning to its lateral edge. The longitudinal headway distribution of motorcycles is also

identified here. Section 6.1.3 provides further specifications and assumptions about the

model based on the findings of the field data and the calibration method. The final section

then presents the calibration results.

6.1.1 Data selection

In order to understand the longitudinal following relationship of motorcycles, a data

set containing vehicle pairs in longitudinal following relationship was retrieved from the

database. The preceding vehicle of each vehicle pair in this data set is a passenger car and

the follower is a motorcycle. Its concept is illustrated in Figure 6.1.

98
 w/2

Difference in
lateral position
w
dw w/2
Lateral distance
to the right edge Longitudinal headway

Regime of longitudinal
following

Figure 6.1 The schematic diagram of the longitudinal following relationship

This data set contains the kinematic information of every vehicle pair, including the

longitudinal headway, the difference in lateral position and the speeds of the vehicle pair.

It was selected according to the following sequences:

1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle.

2) Search for the closest vehicle in front of the subject motorcycle and then define it

as the leading vehicle. These two vehicles are defined as a vehicle pair.

3) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the leading vehicle is not a passenger car.

4) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the leading vehicle equals 0

km/hr.

5) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the subject vehicle is less than

the speed of the leading vehicle.

6) Calculate the longitudinal headway and the lateral position difference between

the vehicles in each pair.

In this procedure, steps 1) and 2) are used to select the neighbour vehicle pairs

which are in longitudinal following positions. Step 3) selects the vehicle pairs with a

passenger car as the leading vehicle. Step 4) and step 5) are used to ensure that the vehicle

pairs are in vehicle-following relationship. Finally, the longitudinal headways and the

lateral position differences are calculated in step 6). The basic analyses of the information

99
obtained from this procedure will be presented in the following subsection.

6.1.2 Properties of the longitudinal headway

In this subsection, the relative location of the vehicle pairs in longitudinal following

relationship and their headway distribution are analysed. In addition, the influences of the

flow density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle on the headways

are investigated.

6.1.2.1 The relative locations of the vehicle pairs

The scatter plots of the longitudinal gaps against the lateral position differences are

shown in Figure 6.2. In these plots, each point represents a following motorcycle. Its

longitudinal gap to the preceding vehicle is showed on the horizontal axis and the lateral

position difference within this vehicle pair is presented on the vertical axis. Hence, the

relative locations of the vehicle pairs are displayed in a two-dimensional manner.

More specifically, Figure 6.2a and Figure 6.2b illustrate the frequency of the

observations per m2. In Figure 6.2c, Figure 6.2d and Figure 6.2e, the effects of the flow

density, the speed difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle on the relative

positions of the vehicle pairs are shown respectively. The flow density here is defined as

the ratio of the road space occupied by vehicles. From these plots, some points can be

concluded:

1) The scattered pattern provides evidence for the unique behaviour characterised in

Section 2.1.3.1, i.e. a motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when

following the preceding vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge.

2) This data set demonstrates that the flow density, the speed difference and the

speed of the preceding vehicle are related to the following distances (see Figure

6.2c, Figure 6.2d and Figure 6.2e). The vehicle pairs with smaller following

distances are observed frequently under the conditions of high density flows, low
100
 speed differences and low leading speeds.

(m)
 &
Freq./m2
 & 25

%
" & 20
$ 
#!$
!!  "  & 15


 ' & 10
 

'  & 5

'  &
          (m)


  
   
(a) The frequency of the relative positions (b) The contour of the frequency

(m) (m)
 &  &
0<speed dif. <10
Density < 0.1
10 speed dif.<20
0.1 Density<0.2
 &  & 20 speed dif.<30
Density 0.2 speed dif. 30(km/h)
% %
" & " &
$  $ 
#!$ #!$
!!  "  & !!  "  &
 
 
 ' &  ' &
   
 
'  & '  &

'  & '  &

          (m)           (m)

  
    
  
   
(c) The scatter plot by the flow density (d) The scatter plot by the speed difference

(m)
 &
0<Speed < 20
20 Speed<40
 & Speed 40(km/h)
%
" &
$ 
#!$
!!  "  &


 ' &
 

'  &

'  &
          (m)


  
   
(e) The scatter plot by the speed of the preceding vehicle

Figure 6.2 The scatter plots of the longitudinal following relationship

101
 6.1.2.2 The effects of the lateral position difference on the headway
distribution

Through analysing the relative positions of the vehicle pairs, it is found that a

motorcycle would like to maintain a shorter headway while following the preceding

vehicle by aligning to its lateral edge. A plausible explanation to this observation is that

by aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle, the following vehicle can easily

swerve away to avoid a possible collision. Therefore, the relationship between the

longitudinal headway and the lateral distance needed to avoid a collision, dw, is

analysed.

In this analysis, the data are categorised into two groups: swerving to the left and

swerving to the right, divided by the central line of the preceding passenger car. Each

group is divided further into two sub-group according to the lateral distance needed to

swerve. The statistical properties and the histogram of the longitudinal headways in these

sub-groups are estimated and plotted in Table 6.1 and Figure 6.3 respectively. The

characteristics of the headway distributions are discussed below:

Table 6.1 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by lateral position
difference
Lateral distance to N Mean SD Median Mode a b b K-S test c for
avoid collision (m) lognormality
To the right edge 375 15.56 13.84 11.31 3.86 2.33 0.99 0.10
(a) 0 dw<0.5 136 15.19 14.02 10.31 3.49 2.27 1.01 0.43
(b) dw 0.5 239 15.78 13.75 11.99 4.17 2.37 0.97 0.32

To the left edge 426 17.57 14.36 13.42 5.13 2.50 0.93 0.32
(c) 0 dw<0.5 209 18.42 15.34 13.90 4.85 2.52 0.97 0.49
(d) dw 0.5 217 16.76 13.32 12.84 5.64 2.49 0.89 0.81

Total 801 16.63 14.14 12.50 4.47 2.42 0.96 0.03

.
2
a. Mode is calculated by assuming the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e. Mode = e µ −σ
b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways.
c. Estimated by using the statistical software R (Venables et al., 2006).

102
 Lognormal curve Lognormal curve

(m) (m)

(a) To the right edge (0 dw<0.5) (b) To the right edge (dw 0.5)

Lognormal curve Lognormal curve

(m) (m)

(c) To the left edge (0 d <0.5)

w
(d) To the left edge (dw 0.5)

Figure 6.3 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways

1) The One-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (p-values in Table 6.1) shows that

the longitudinal headway distributions of all the sub-groups follow the

lognormal distribution.

2) When analysing the effects of the lateral positions on the headways, it is found

that following distances in the right half area are significantly smaller than those

in the left half area. Since these headways are lognormally distributed, this result

is obtained by testing the equality of the means of the longitudinal headways’

logarithm, . The value of in the right half area, 2.33, is significantly different

from that in the left half area, 2.50 (t-test, p=0.012, two-tailed).

3) It is found that motorcyclists in different halves maintain different speed

differences. In the right half, the average speed difference is 9.92 km/h, which is

significantly different from that in the left half, 11.44 km/h (t-test, p=0.027,
103
 two-tailed).

4) The reasons for the differences mentioned in 2) and 3) might be linked to the

geometric layout of the link surveyed. In the database, most of the longitudinal

following motorcycles are observed in the second lane to the sidewalk. As the

inner lane (the lane near the sidewalk) is the parking lane and sometimes it is

empty, the motorcyclists in the left half of the second lane have more freedom to

move to the inner lane and thus can maintain longer headways and higher speed

differences to the preceding vehicles. On the other hand, the motorcyclists in the

right half are constrained by the traffic, so their choices of headways and speeds

are limited. Moreover, the motorcyclists who progress near the fast lane are

comparatively more aggressive, so they are more likely to maintain shorter

headways.

5) The values of the modes of the frequency distributions in Table 6.1 show a trend

that the motorcycles followed closer when aligning to the lateral edge of the

preceding vehicles. This finding is consistent with the assumption of the

longitudinal headway model.

6) The above analyses confirm that motorcyclists behave differently as following in

different areas behind the leading vehicles

6.1.2.3 The effects of the flow density, the speed difference and the leading
speed

The data set is analysed further to understand how the flow density, the speed

difference and the speed of the preceding vehicle affect the following distances of

motorcycles. The results are displayed in Table 6.2, Table 6.3 and Table 6.4. From these

tables the following conclusions can be drawn:

1) The longitudinal headway distribution of motorcycles follows a lognormal

distribution in most of the conditions except when the leading speed is slow (0
104
 km/hr < leading speed < 20 km/hr).

Table 6.2 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by flow density
Density N Mean SD Median Mode a b b K-S test c for
lognormality
0 density<0.1 297 23.68 16.41 20.25 9.89 2.90 0.78 0.26
0.1 density<0.2 304 14.21 11.09 10.85 5.50 2.36 0.81 0.61
density 0.2 200 9.84 9.32 6.13 2.05 1.82 1.05 0.51
a. Mode is calculated by assuming that the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e.
Mode = e µ −σ .
2

b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways respectively.
c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Table 6.3 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by speed difference
Speed difference (km/h) N Mean SD Median Mode a b b K-S test c for
lognormality
0 speed difference<10 473 11.52 10.83 7.92 3.21 2.05 0.94 0.64
10 speed difference<20 206 20.27 12.39 18.71 10.46 2.81 0.68 0.15
20 speed difference<30 79 25.50 15.97 23.41 12.03 3.02 0.73 0.25
speed difference 30 43 39.10 15.67 38.01 29.30 3.58 0.45 0.70
a. Mode = e µ −σ .
2

b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways.
c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Table 6.4 The statistical properties of the longitudinal headways by leading speed
c
Leading speed (km/h) N Mean SD Median Mode
a b b K-S test for
lognormality
0 leading speed<20 307 16.27 13.98 12.02 2.97 2.32 1.11 0.01
20 leading speed<40 393 16.29 14.23 11.64 5.24 2.43 0.88 0.83
leading speed 40 101 19.08 14.15 15.57 9.34 2.71 0.69 0.96
2
a. Mode = e µ −σ
b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways.
c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

2) The modes of the headway distributions show the pattern that a lower flow

density, a higher speed difference or a higher speed of the preceding vehicle will

reflect in a longer headway. In addition, the mean of the logarithm of longitudinal

headways, , also shows this trend.

3) The standard deviation of the logarithm of longitudinal headways, , is not

constant. In addition, it is generally negatively related to , with only a minor

exception in Table 6.3.

105
 4) The above analyses imply that the specification of the longitudinal headway

model should take flow density, the speed difference, the leading speed and the

lateral position into consideration.

6.1.3 Specification of the longitudinal headway model

The main objective of this section is to calibrate the longitudinal headway model

shown in Equation (4.12), which is refined as Equation (6.1) in Section 6.1.3.2. However,

this model is difficult to calibrate due to both the complexity of the equation and the

characteristics of the data. These issues are discussed below:

1) This model indicates that the minimum following distance is the lower bound of

two formulations, Equations (4.4) and (4.11). This could lead to a discontinuity

between these two formulations.

2) The dependent variable (i.e. the following distance) is not normally distributed

(see Section 6.1.2.2). In addition, the conditional variances of the dependent

variable are not constant (see Section 6.1.2.3). Therefore, the method used to

calibrate this model should be able to handle non-normally distributed residuals

and to deal with non-constant variances.

3) The knowledge of the parameters in this model is limited. Thus, statistical tools

based on the assumption of normal distribution are inappropriate for calibrating

this model.

4) The model is multi-dimensional because several parameters are involved.

Therefore, several local optimal calibration results can be found. As a result, the

boundaries of the parameters need to be defined carefully in order to obtain a

decent result.

5) Two error terms are observed in the following behaviour of motorcycles, one

accounting for random effects and the other accounting for the aggression of a

106
 motorcyclist. Therefore, this model is an issue of Stochastic Frontier Analysis

(Aigner et al., 1977; Meeusen and van den Broeck, 1977). This point will be

elaborated later in Section 6.1.3.2.

Based on the above analyses, some actions are taken to perform the model

calibration. Firstly, a statistical tool capable of dealing with this calibration process is

chosen. Secondly, some assumptions are made to clarify the reasonable range of the

parameters. Finally, the model is revised further to facilitate the calibration process. The

detailed account of these measures is elaborated in the following parts.

6.1.3.1 The calibration tool

As mentioned earlier, the minimum longitudinal following distance model is

difficult to calibrate due to both the complexity of the equation and the characteristics of

the data. To overcome these difficulties, WinBUGS (Spiegelhalter et al., 2003) is used to

tackle the calibration process.

WinBUGS is a part of the BUGS (Bayesian inference Using Gibbs Sampling)

project (The BUGS Project, 2004), featuring in a graphical user interface and on-line

monitoring. It is a general-purpose software package that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo

(MCMC) methods (Metropolis et al., 1953) to conduct arbitrarily complex Bayesian

analysis. It aims to make MCMC methods practical for applied research (Cowles, 2004).

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a class of algorithms that draw a

sequence of samples from probability distributions based on constructing a Markov chain.

In WinBUGS the Gibbs sampling algorithm (Geman and Geman, 1984) is used to

conduct the drawing. The sampling algorithm can determine the transition kernels for the

Markov chain according to the current information and then generate samples from the

probability distributions. After the sequence of samples comprises a Markov chain, i.e.

this sequence of samples achieves convergence, its stationary distributions will

107
approximate the desired probability distributions.

Some important applications of MCMC are based on its ability to numerically

calculate multi-dimensional integrals of complicated probability distributions. One

example is its use on Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian analysis usually needs to integrate the

joint and marginal posterior distributions of the unknown parameters in the model. In

view of this, MCMC methods are well-adapted to sample the posterior distribution of a

Bayesian model. Another example is its application on stochastic frontier models

(Osiewalski and Steel, 1998). The complexity of the stochastic frontier analysis makes

heavy numerical integration inevitable (Lovell and Kumbhakar, 2003). However,

research has demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is feasible for analysing stochastic

frontier models (van den Broeck et al., 1994; Koop et al., 1994; Kim and Schmidt, 2000;

Tsionas, 2002; Kumbhakar and Tsionas, 2005) and WinBUGS is a useful tool for this

application (Griffin and Steel, 2005).

Based on the analyses discussed above, WinBUGS is chosen as the tool for model

calibration in this study because it is powerful and flexible in dealing with the parameters

of which the probability distributions are not known explicitly.

6.1.3.2 Model specifications

The longitudinal headway model, Equation (4.12), has to be refined to facilitate the

calibration work and to fit the data characteristics, as shown in Equation (6.1).

2
vnt2 vn−1,t , d ntw 1 " ~ d ntw 2 1 ~ 2d ntw
∆Dntmin =min{ vntτ − "
+ ~ ∆v nt (τ + w
) + (b − b )( w
) − b τ (τ + w
) }+ u nt, where
'

2b 2b v 2 v 2 v
(6.1)

∆Dntmin : the minimum longitudinal following of motorcycle n at time t,

vnt : the vehicle n at time t,

vnt : the speed difference, vnt =vnt - vnt-1,

vw : the lateral speed of a motorcycle,

108
d ntw : the lateral distance needed for motorcycle n at time t to avoid a collision,

~
b : the speculative preceding deceleration,

b" : the desired braking deceleration a following motorcycle,

: the reaction time and

u'nt : the safety margin.

Equation (4.12) involves several unknown parameters, including the reaction time,

the deceleration of the vehicles and the lateral speed. Some of these parameters are highly

correlated. For example, to stop safely, the delay of reaction time can be compensated by

increasing the brake. The correlation among these parameters will affect the correctness

of the calibration results, so some assumptions and clarification towards these parameters

have to be made.

In addition, in order to apply the Bayesian analysis to this model, each parameter

needs to be assigned a prior probability distribution before the Gibbs sampling starts to

generate data. In the Bayesian framework, a prior probability distribution, or simply

called the prior, is the information about a model parameter before the data are collected.

This information is described by clarifying the reasonable ranges of the parameter and

putting a probability distribution on it.

The refinement and specification of this model, the assumptions about the

parameters and the assignments of the priors are discussed below.

Introduction of the safety margin

Practically, when motorcyclists are maintaining the following distance by the

principle of collision avoidance, they should preserve an ultimate safety margin into

which they are not willing to intrude before the motorcycle has stopped safely. Such a

concept has also been adapted in Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981).

The safety margin, u'nt, is introduced to the longitudinal headway model by

109
assuming that motorcyclists will consider the safety margin when they are following

longitudinally, as shown in Equation (6.1). u'nt is a non-negative random variable, which

can be regarded as the inefficiency in a stochastic frontier model. In addition, this variable

also represents the aggressive level of a motorcyclist. Its prior is assigned to follow the

uniform distribution with limits of 0 to 10 m:

u'nt ~uniform(0,10)
(6.2)

The braking decelerations of the following motorcycles

The braking decelerations under the conditions of swerving and non-swerving

manoeuvres, i.e. b'n and bn in Equation (4.12), are assumed to be identical. Practically,

when a motorcycle is not swerving, it can achieve a severer deceleration, compared to the

situation that it is swerving. However, due to the correlation between the deceleration

with swerving and the lateral speed, vw, it is difficult to calibrate both the lateral speed and

the deceleration with swerving in a model simultaneously. Therefore, in order to estimate

the lateral speed, the decelerations b'n and bn are assumed to be identical. Thus, these two

parameters are both replaced by b"n, as shown in Equation (6.1). In addition, the desired

braking deceleration of the following vehicle is a latent variable. It is difficult to specify

this variable for every motorcyclist. Therefore, a stochastic variable b" is employed to

replace b"n.

The prior distribution of the deceleration of the following motorcycle is assigned to

follow a truncated normal distribution. This is based on the observation from the field

data. The acceleration and deceleration of motorcycles in this database exhibit an

un-skewed and leptokurtic frequency distribution with a mean close to 0. In addition, the

mechanical maximum braking capability of motorcycles is around -11 m/sec2

(Biokinetics and Associates Ltd, 2003).

b"~ truncated_normal(0.40,1.512,-11,0)
(6.3)

110
 The speculative leading deceleration

In real traffic, the deceleration rate of the preceding vehicle bn-1 cannot be observed

in advance. However, when a driver is following another vehicle, it is of great importance

for him to speculate the deceleration of the preceding vehicle before deciding the
~
following distance. Therefore, a stochastic variable b is introduced to replace bn-1 to

represent the speculative preceding deceleration.

Similar to the decelerations of motorcycles, according to the field data the prior
~
distribution of the speculative leading deceleration b is assigned to follow a truncated

normal distribution restricted in the range between -10 m/sec2 (Ecker et al., 2001) and 0

m/sec2. The prior distribution for this parameter is set to be:

~
b ~ truncated_normal(0.09,0.942,-10,0)
(6.4)

The reaction time

The reaction time is set to be a constant, 0.75 sec. The reaction times of

motorcyclists are highly related to their braking decelerations or lateral speeds. These

parameters can substitute each other, so it is difficult to calibrate these parameters

simultaneously in one model. After considering that the reaction time for motorists has

been discussed in many studies (see Section 2.2), it is then safe to assume it as a constant

value.

The headway distribution

Based on the findings in Section 6.1.2.2, the headway distribution of motorcycles is

assumed to follow a lognormal distribution.

∆Dnt ~lognormal ( µ nt , σ nt2 )

(6.5)

where ∆Dnt is the longitudinal following distance of a motorcycle n at time t; µ nt and

σ nt are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of the following distances,

111
which are also known as the scale parameter and the shape parameter respectively. These

two parameters will be elaborated later.

The main purpose of identifying the headway distribution is to define the minimum

following distance ∆Dntmin . This variable is the dependent variable in Equation (6.1), but

it is also a latent variable which cannot be observed directly. Therefore, definition of

∆Dntmin is clarified by using the characteristics of the headway distribution. This is

described in the subsection below.

The minimum following distance

The minimum following distance ∆Dntmin in Equation (6.1) is assumed to be the

mode of the longitudinal headway distribution.

∆Dntmin =mode( ∆Dnt )

(6.6)

The reason for this assumption is that the data were acquired from the traffic flow in

peak hours. In such an environment, most of the motorcycles would follow the leading

vehicle by maintaining the minimum following distance. For a lognormal distribution, the
2 2
mode, median and mean are e µ −σ , e µ and e µ +σ /2
. Thus, the minimum following

distance ∆Dntmin can be formulated as:

∆Dntmin = e µnt −σ nt .
2

(6.7)

The moderate following distance

The moderate following distance is introduced to present the following distances of

the average motorcyclists. The moderate following distance, ∆Dntmedian , is assumed to be

the median, rather than the mean, of the longitudinal headway distribution:

∆Dntmedian = e µ nt
(6.8)

The reason for using median is that the headway of motorcycles follows a
112
lognormal distribution, so its frequency distribution is skewed. In a skewed distribution,

the extreme values in the longer tail will result in the mean being far from the mode. This

characteristic makes the mean an inappropriate measure of central tendency since it is not

robust to outliers. Further, this issue becomes more critical when considering the fact that

there is no interaction between a vehicle pair with a rather long following distance.

Therefore, in order to reduce the impact of the outliers, the median is employed to

represent the following distances of the overall observations.

The scale parameter

Given that the longitudinal following distance of motorcycles follows a lognormal

distribution, the scale parameter is the mean of the logarithm of the following distances.

µ= ln(∆Dnt )
n t
(6.9)

However, µ nt in Equation (6.5) is the marginal scale parameter under the

distribution of motorcyclist n and time t. It is not suitable to be estimated by Equation

(6.9). Instead, it can be estimated by using Equation (6.7) or Equation (6.8), which are

reformulated below:

µ nt = ln( ∆Dntmin ) + σ nt2

(6.10)

µ nt = ln( ∆Dntmedian )
(6.11)

The shape parameter

The shape parameter σ nt in Equation (6.5) is assumed to be linearly related to the

leading speed. From the analyses earlier (Section 6.1.2.3), it is found that σ nt varies

according to the leading speed or the flood density.

The flood density is a macroscopic parameter which is related to the spatial

distribution of vehicles. In a high density flow, the right tail of the headway distribution

113
will be compressed and thus the shape of the distribution is affected.

The leading speed is a microscopic parameter which influences the

vehicle-following relationship in a kinematic aspect. A short headway is commonly

observed behind a slowly moving vehicle. Therefore, the leading speed will affect the

minimum following distance and the shape of the headway distribution.

Both the leading speed and the flow density are suitable for describing the shape

parameter of the headway distribution. In fact, these two variables are highly correlated.

Here the leading speed is selected because the use of flood density is computationally

demanding for a microscopic model. In addition, the leading speed and σ nt present a

linear relationship in Table 6.4. As a result, σ nt can be formulated as:

σ nt = α 0 + α1vn −1, t ,
(6.12)

where α 0 and α1 are the coefficients.

In WinBUGS, α 0 and α1 are assigned to follow the uniform distribution.

Reasonable finite ranges are given according to the values of σ nt and vn −1, t obtained

from the field data.

α 0 ~uniform(0,20)
(6.13)

α1 ~uniform(-5,20)
(6.14)

The approach to the estimation of the braking decelerations

~
Due to the lateral speed vw is highly correlated to braking decelerations b" and b ,
~
the value of b" and b are estimated without considering the swerving manoeuvre.

Under the non-swerving condition, motorcyclists will follow the preceding vehicle by the

moderate following distances, ∆Dntmedian . Such a moderate following distance would

include a safety margin. Thus, the minimum following distance without swerving

(Equation (4.4)) can be reformulated as:

114
 2
vnt2 vn−1,t
∆D median
nt = vntτ − " + ~ + u nt ,
2b 2b
(6.15)

where ∆D unswerving is replaced by ∆Dntmedian . unt is introduced to represent the safety

margin, which is a non-negative random variable. Its prior is defined as:

unt ~uniform(0,10)
(6.16)

By combining Equations (6.5), (6.11), (6.12) and (6.15), the braking decelerations
~
b" and b can be calibrated by the following formulation:

vnt2 vn2−1,t
∆Dnt ~lognormal (ln(vntτ − " + ~ + u nt ), (α 0 + α1vn−1,t ) 2 )
2b 2b
(6.17)

The lateral speed

~
The value of b" and b is estimated by considering both the swerving and

non-swerving manoeuvres. The equation for this estimation is the combination of

Equations (6.1), (6.5), (6.10) and (6.12):

∆Dnt ~lognormal (ln(∆Dnt ) + (α 0 + α1vn −1,t ) , (α 0 + α1vn −1,t ) )

min 2 2

(6.18)

where ∆Dntmin is formulated by Equation (6.1). The prior of vw is assigned to be:

vw ~uniform(0,10)
(6.19)

6.1.4 The calibration results

This section details the calibration results of Equations (6.17) and (6.18). First, the

framework of the calibration using WinBUGS is presented. Secondly, the process of

convergence assessments is described. Lastly, a detailed account about the calibration

results is provided.

115
6.1.4.1 The framework of the calibration using WinBUGS

In this calibration process, the components of the longitudinal headway models,

Equations (6.17) and (6.18) can be categorised into three groups:

1) The observed variables: The first group comprises the variables which are

observable and available from the database, including the following distance

∆Dnt , the speeds vnt and vn−1,t , and lateral distance needed for avoiding a

collision d ntw .

2) The constant: The second group comprises unknown variables assigned to a

deterministic value. The reaction time τ is the only variable in this group, the

value of which is assumed to be 0.75 sec.

3) The unknown parameters: The third group consists of the parameters needed to
~
be calibrated, including α 0 , α1 , b" , b and vw. Three layers of Bayesian

analyses were conducted to calibrate these parameters. This will be discussed

later in this subsection.

This calibration involved two parts. According to the analyses in Section 6.1.2,

when a motorcyclist is following in the right half area behind a passenger car, the

following distance is significantly smaller than that in the left half. Therefore, data from

both halves, 375 observations in the right half and 426 in the left, were used to calibrate

the unknown parameters.

Three MCMC chains were run with a burn-in of 5,000 iterations. Then, the MCMC

models were examined to ensure having converged after 20,000 iterations. The process of

the convergence assessment will be discussed later in Section 6.1.4.2. In each iteration of

the MCMC simulation, three layers of Bayesian analyses were conducted. The whole

process is shown in Figure 6.4, which is presented in the style of DoodleBUGS

(Spiegelhalter, 2003), the graphical interface of WinBUGS.

116
 Layer 1
0 1

D[i] [i] vn-1[i]

Layer 2
ui '
[i] D'
[i]

'
'
b

~
b vn[i] vn-1[i] '[i]

'
'
b

~
b
'
' '
'
[i] D'
[i]

vw

u i' dw[i]
Layer 3
for i in 1: k

: a constant
: a stochastic or deterministic node
: a logical relationship
: a stochastic dependence
: the repeated part

Figure 6.4 The calibration of the longitudinal headway model using WinBUGS

In Layer 1, the shape parameter of the headway distribution σ nt was estimated by

using Equations (6.5) and (6.12). The value of α 0 and α1 were obtained here. Then, the

draw of σ nt was retained to become the input data of the second and the third layers.

In Layer 2, the values of the one-side random variable unt , the desired deceleration
~
b" and the speculative preceding deceleration b were calibrated by using Equation
~
(6.17). Again, the draws of b" and b in this iteration were kept for the calibration of the

lateral speed vw in the last layer.

Finally, in the last layer, the values of the one-side random variable unt' , the lateral

speed vw were calibrated by using Equation (6.18).

117
 By this calibration process, the unknown parameters were estimated. In addition,

some relevant variables such as the mean, the mode and the median of the headways

were also calculated. The results are presented in later subsections.

6.1.4.2 The convergence assessment tools

Convergence means that the posterior distributions from the Gibbs Sampling have

eventually reached stationary statuses so these posterior distributions approximate the

desired probability distributions. In WinBUGS the convergence can be diagnosed by

several tools based on running multiple chains in the MCMC simulation. In order to carry

out the convergence diagnosis, three chains were simulated in each iteration. Then, four

measures were employed to investigate the convergence of the model:

1) The trace plots (or history plots): The trace plot is a convergence diagnostic

tool provided by WinBUGS. It presents the graphical summaries for the samples

produced by the Gibbs sampler in each chain. It indicates convergence when the

samples in each chain for every parameter look reasonable and all the chains of

every parameter overlap one another.

2) The plots of the Gelman and Rubin (1992)’s convergence diagnostics: The

modification of the Gelman-Rubin convergence statistic (Brooks and Gelman,

1998) is calculated and presented in this plot. It consists of three lines, one red,

one green and one blue. Once convergence is achieved, the red line is close to 1

and the other two lines are stable.

3) The plots of autocorrelations: Autocorrelation means that the sequential draws

of a parameter from the conditional distribution are correlated. When the level of

autocorrelation is high for a parameter of interest, it is a sign of poor

convergence.

4) The kernel density plots: The plot of the posterior distribution for every

parameter will present a smooth curve when a model has converged.

118
6.1.4.3 The calibration results

The calibration results for each parameter are given in Table 6.5 and Table 6.6. First,

the Markov chains are examined to ensure their convergences. Then, the values of the

parameters are reported. The implications of these results are also discussed.

Convergence diagnostics

The convergence diagnostic tools show that this model is well-converged for both

halves as:

1) The red lines in the Gelman and Rubin Plots are close to 1.0 and the other two

lines are stable;

2) The plots of autocorrelation indicate that all parameters are mixing well with

autocorrelation vanishing before 30 lags in each case;

3) The trace plots also show that the draws are well mixed because all the chains of

every parameter overlap one another and

4) The kernel distribution curves look reasonable and smooth.

These diagnostics indicate that the models approximate to convergence, i.e. these

stationary distributions of the resulting Markov chains approximate the joint posterior

distributions of interest.

Verification of the model calibration

The verification of the model calibration involves two stages. The first one is to

examine the convergence of the MCMC simulation. This has been discussed above. The

second stage is to examine the statistics of the headway distribution from the calibration

results. In this stage the estimated values of the average scale parameter µ , the average

shape parameter σ , the mode and the median of the headway distribution are employed

to compare with their counterparts in Table 6.1 to Table 6.4. It is found that these statistics

from the calibration results are rather reasonable.

119
Table 6.5 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (left half)
Node Mean S.D. Gelman-Rubin Autocorrelation Trace Kernel density
~ bhat_ns chains 1:3 bhat_ns chains 1:3 bhat_ns chains 3:1 bhat_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

b -4.70 0.69 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5 -0.5 -8.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 -10.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0
iteration lag iteration

b_ns chains 1:3 b_ns chains 1:3 b_ns chains 3:1 b_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

b" -4.56 0.48 1.0 1.0 -3.0 1.0

0.5 -4.0 0.75
0.5 0.0 -5.0 0.5
-0.5 -6.0 0.25
0.0 -1.0 -7.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0
iteration lag iteration

vw
lv chains 1:3 lv chains 1:3 lv chains 3:1 lv chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2.62 1.11 1.0 1.0

0.5
10.0
7.5
0.8
0.6
0.5 0.0 5.0 0.4
-0.5 2.5 0.2
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
iteration lag iteration

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 mini_s_bar chains 1:3 mini_s_bar chains 3:1 mini_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

∆D min 5.19 0.52 1.0 1.0

0.5
7.0
6.0
0.8
0.6
0.5 0.0 5.0 0.4
-0.5 4.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 3.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
iteration lag iteration

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 mode_s_bar chains 1:3 mode_s_bar chains 3:1 mode_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

mode 6.98 0.32 1.0 1.0

0.5
9.0
8.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 0.0 7.0
-0.5 6.0 0.5
0.0 -1.0 5.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
iteration lag iteration

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 med_ns_bar chains 1:3 med_ns_bar chains 3:1 med_ns_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

median 14.49 0.58 1.0 1.0

0.5
17.0
16.0
15.0
0.8
0.6
0.5 0.0 0.4
14.0
-0.5 13.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 12.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 12.0 14.0 16.0
iteration lag iteration

mu_rho chains 1:3 mu_rho chains 1:3 mu_rho chains 3:1 mu_rho chains 1:3 sample: 60000

µ 2.51 0.04 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.7
2.6
2.5
15.0
10.0

-0.5 2.4 5.0

0.0 -1.0 2.3 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
iteration lag iteration

rhobar chains 1:3 rhobar chains 1:3 rhobar chains 3:1 rhobar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

σ 0.80 0.01 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.9
0.85
0.8
30.0
20.0

-0.5 0.75 10.0

0.0 -1.0 0.7 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85
iteration lag iteration

alpha0 chains 1:3 alpha0 chains 1:3 alpha0 chains 3:1 alpha0 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0 0.85 0.03 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.95
0.9
20.0
15.0
0.0 0.85 10.0
0.5 -0.5 0.8 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.75 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.7 0.8 0.9
iteration lag iteration

alpha1 chains 1:3 alpha1 chains 1:3 alpha1 chains 3:1 alpha1 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

1 -0.01 0.00i 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.01 150.0
100.0
0.5 0.0 -0.01
-0.5 -0.02 50.0
0.0 -1.0 -0.03 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 3.46945E-18
iteration lag iteration

u_ns chains 1:3 u_ns chains 1:3 u_ns chains 3:1 u_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

unt 0.71 0.35 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3.0
2.0
1.5
1.0

-0.5 1.0 0.5

0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
iteration lag iteration

' u_s chains 1:3 u_s chains 1:3 u_s chains 3:1 u_s chains 1:3 sample: 60000

u nt 1.79 0.45 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.75
0.5
0.5 -0.5 1.0 0.25
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
iteration lag iteration

DIC 12,571 - - - - -
i
The actual value is 3.45×10-3.

120
Table 6.6 Calibrating results of the longitudinal headway model (right half)
Node Mean S.D. Gelman-Rubin Autocorrelation Trace Kernel density
~ bhat_ns chains 1:3 bhat_ns chains 1:3 bhat_ns chains 3:1 bhat_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

b -3.82 0.53 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5 -5.0
-0.5 -6.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 -7.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0
iteration lag iteration

b_ns chains 1:3 b_ns chains 1:3 b_ns chains 3:1 b_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

b" -4.32 0.54 1.5 1.0 -2.0 0.8

0.5 -3.0 0.6
1.0 -4.0
0.0 0.4
0.5 -5.0
-0.5 -6.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 -7.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0
iteration lag iteration

vw
lv chains 1:3 lv chains 1:3 lv chains 3:1 lv chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2.70 1.34 1.0 1.0

0.5
10.0
7.5
0.6
0.4
0.5 0.0 5.0
-0.5 2.5 0.2
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
iteration lag iteration

mini_s_bar chains 1:3 mini_s_bar chains 1:3 mini_s_bar chains 3:1 mini_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

∆D min 4.59 0.60 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
8.0
7.0
6.0
0.8
0.6
0.0 0.4
0.5 5.0
-0.5 4.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 3.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 2.0 4.0 6.0
iteration lag iteration

mode_s_bar chains 1:3 mode_s_bar chains 1:3 mode_s_bar chains 3:1 mode_s_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

mode 5.46 0.36 1.0 1.0

0.5
8.0
7.0
1.5
1.0
0.5 0.0 6.0
-0.5 5.0 0.5
0.0 -1.0 4.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
iteration lag iteration

med_ns_bar chains 1:3 med_ns_bar chains 1:3 med_ns_bar chains 3:1 med_ns_bar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

median 12.51 0.61 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
16.0
14.0
0.8
0.6
0.0 0.4
0.5 -0.5 12.0 0.2
0.0 -1.0 10.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 10.0 12.0 14.0
iteration lag iteration

mu_rho chains 1:3 mu_rho chains 1:3 mu_rho chains 3:1 mu_rho chains 1:3 sample: 60000

µ 2.33 0.04 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.6
2.5
2.4
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.3
-0.5 2.2 2.5
0.0 -1.0 2.1 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 2.0 2.2 2.4
iteration lag iteration

rhobar chains 1:3 rhobar chains 1:3 rhobar chains 3:1 rhobar chains 1:3 sample: 60000

σ 0.85 0.02 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.95
0.9
0.85
30.0
20.0

-0.5 0.8 10.0

0.0 -1.0 0.75 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9
iteration lag iteration

alpha0 chains 1:3 alpha0 chains 1:3 alpha0 chains 3:1 alpha0 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0 0.84 0.03 1.0 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.9
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0
-0.5 0.8 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.7 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.7 0.8 0.9
iteration lag iteration

alpha1 chains 1:3 alpha1 chains 1:3 alpha1 chains 3:1 alpha1 chains 1:3 sample: 60000

1 0.00i 0.00ii 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.02
0.01
100.0
75.0
0.5 0.0 0.0 50.0
-0.5 -0.01 25.0
0.0 -1.0 -0.02 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -0.02 0.0 0.02
iteration lag iteration

u_ns chains 1:3 u_ns chains 1:3 u_ns chains 3:1 u_ns chains 1:3 sample: 60000

unt 0.63 0.32 1.0

0.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.0

-0.5 0.5 0.5

0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
iteration lag iteration

u 'nt
u_s chains 1:3 u_s chains 1:3 u_s chains 3:1 u_s chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0.87 0.39 1.0 1.0

0.5
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.75
0.5 0.0 0.5
-0.5 1.0 0.25
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
iteration lag iteration

DIC 10,732 - - - - -
i
The actual value is 1.84×10-3.
ii
The actual value is 4.40×10-3.

121
 The lateral speeds

The estimated lateral speed was 2.62 m/sec for swerving to the left and 2.70 m/sec

for swerving to the right. These speeds are just slightly larger than the average maximum

gait speed of male pedestrians (2.53 m/sec), measured by Bohannon (1997). These

numbers show that motorcyclists were expecting a gentle swerving manoeuvre. However,

this gentle swerving manoeuvre can notably decrease the following distances, from

around 13 m (the median of the headway distribution) to around 6 m (the mode of the

headway distribution). Thus, this can explain the small modal scores presented Table 6.1

to Table 6.4 and also give reasons why motorcyclists were observed following the

preceding vehicles by extremely short headways.

The desired decelerations and the speculative preceding decelerations

When motorcycles are following by a modest distance, i.e. at the median of the

headway distribution, the average braking decelerations that motorcyclists would like to

undertake were -4.56 m/sec2 for the left half and -4.32 m/sec2 for the right. As to the

speculative preceding decelerations, the motorcyclists from the left half would expect the

preceding vehicles to brake by the deceleration rate of -4.70 m/sec2 and for the

motorcyclists from the right half, the value was -3.82 m/sec2.

These deceleration rates are fairly gentle, compared to the results of Ecker et al.

(2001) and Vavryn and Winkelbauer (2004). These two studies found that common

motorcyclists were capable of applying brakes by up to around -6 to -7 m/sec2. However,

from another viewpoint, a deceleration rate of around -3.9 to -4.6 m/sec2 is severer than

97% of the braking decelerations observed in the database. Therefore, it can be concluded

that the motorcyclists observed were ready to undertake a fairly severe braking

deceleration in their daily experience. However, the deceleration rates in this study were

still mild compared to their maximum braking abilities, which have been found in other

studies.

122
 The difference between following in the right-hand area and the left-hand area

behind the preceding vehicle also reflected on the braking decelerations. Since the

following distances in the left-hand area were comparatively longer, the average

deceleration difference (subtract the speculative preceding deceleration from the desired

deceleration) was milder (0.14 m/sec2 for left-hand area versus -0.50 m/sec2 for

right-hand area). This results show that the motorcyclists in the right half were more alert.

The minimum following distances

Given the deceleration rates and lateral speed discussed above, the average

minimum following distance was 5.19 m for the left half and 4.59 m for the right half.

These numbers were the limits calculated from the physical rules, without considering

psychological issues. If the safety margin u nt' was taken into account, the minimum

following distance should be longer, ranging between ∆D min and the mode of the

headway distribution. For the left half, it was between 5.19 m and 6.98 m; for the right

half, it was between 4.59 m and 5.46 m.

The difference between following in the left half and following in the right half

The difference between following in the right-hand area and the left-hand area

behind the preceding vehicle is reflected in many aspects, including the braking

deceleration, the lateral speed, the safety margin, the following distances and the shape of

the headway distribution.

It has been found and analysed in Section 6.1.2 that the following distances in the

left-hand area were comparatively longer. This is consistent with the outcome of the

parameters such as the mode, the median, the minimum following distance and the safety

margin. As the characteristics of headway reflected on the kinematic interactions between

vehicles, the values of deceleration difference (subtract the speculative preceding

deceleration from the desired deceleration) and lateral speeds show that the motorcyclists

123
in the right half were less risk averse. In addition, the shape parameter of the headway

distribution shows that the shape of the distribution hardly changed with the speed of the

leading vehicle (or the flow density) in the left half, but it did in the right half.

6.2 The oblique & lateral headway model

This section focuses on the calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model. As

discussed in Section 4.2.2, the lateral headway is a special case of the oblique headway.

Therefore, the oblique headway is employed to calibrate this model. This section begins

with a description of how the data set for this calibration was retrieved from the database.

Basic analyses of the data set are then presented in Section 6.2.2. Based on these analyses,

Section 6.2.3 provides further specifications and assumptions about the model. Finally,

the parameters in the model are calibrated. The results are described in the final part.

6.2.1 Data selection

The oblique following behaviour is a critical movement of motorcycles to be

examined. To understand this behaviour, a data set consisting of the information of every

vehicle pair in an oblique following relationship was obtained from the database. The

information in this data set includes the oblique gap, the following angle, the speed

difference and the leading speed. The data set for this analysis is selected from the

following sequence:

1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle.

2) Search for the closest vehicle at the oblique front of the subject motorcycle and

define it as the leading vehicle. These two vehicles are defined as a vehicle pair.

3) Filter out the vehicle pairs in which the speed of the subject vehicle is less than

the speed of the leading vehicle.

4) Filter out the vehicle pairs where the subject vehicle is progressing in the inner

124
 lane (the nearest lane to the sidewalk).

5) Calculate the variables needed for the oblique & lateral headway model, such as

following distance, the speed difference and the following angle.

Steps 1) and 2) are used to select the neighbour vehicle pairs which are in oblique

relative positions. Step 3) is used to ensure that the pairs are in the vehicle-following or

overtaking relationship.

Step 4) is used to rule out the vehicle pairs without interactions near the inner lane.

In the survey site, the inner lane is used for on-street parking. Passenger cars seem to use

the inner lane less frequently whereas motorcycles use it more frequently when there is

available road space. As a result, the motorcycles progressing in this lane usually have

weak lateral or oblique interactions with other vehicles because they can keep a certain

lateral clearance easily. Under this circumstance, step 4) is used to exclude these

situations. Finally, by step 5), a data set for model calibration can finally be obtained.

In addition, it is worthwhile to point out that the oblique following distance is

defined as the closest corners between two vehicles in oblique following relationship, as

shown in Figure 4.4.

6.2.2 Properties of the oblique headway

The oblique & lateral headway model assumes that the following distance is a

function of the following angle. Hence the relationship between the following angle and

the following distance is investigated. Also, the oblique (or lateral) headway distribution

of motorcycles is identified.

Table 6.7 shows the statistical properties of the oblique headways, categorised by

the following angles. Their histograms of frequency distributions are illustrated in

Figure 6.5. Several important characteristics are discussed below:

125
Table 6.7 The statistical properties of the oblique headways
Lateral distance to N Mean SD Median Mode a b b K-S test c for
avoid collision (m) lognormality
Following at rear right
(a) 0 < θ ≤ 30 459 9.47 8.15 7.11 3.42 1.92 0.83 0.49
(b) 30 < θ ≤ 60 137 3.58 2.13 3.18 1.81 1.07 0.69 0.36
(c) 60 < θ < 90 85 2.40 1.35 2.14 1.37 0.70 0.62 0.68
Following at rear left
(d) − 30 ≤ θ < 0 467 8.77 8.50 5.79 3.18 1.83 0.82 0.10
(e) − 60 ≤ θ < −30 151 2.94 1.34 2.85 1.89 0.95 0.56 0.15
(f) − 90 < θ < −60 68 2.15 0.92 2.23 1.48 0.65 0.51 0.22
a. Mode is calculated by assuming the longitudinal headway is lognormally distributed, i.e.
Mode = e µ −σ .
2

b. and are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of oblique headways.
c. Estimated by using the statistical software R.

Lognormal curve Lognormal curve Lognormal curve

(m) (m) (m)

(a) At the rear right ( 0 < θ ≤ 30 ) (b) At the rear right ( 30 < θ ≤ 60 ) (c) At the rear right ( 60 < < 90 )

Lognormal curve Lognormal curve Lognormal curve

(m) (m) (m)

(d) At the rear left (- 30 ≤ θ < 0 ) (e) At the rear left (- 60 ≤ θ <- 30 ) (f) At the rear left (- 90 < <- 60 )

Figure 6.5 The frequency distributions of the oblique headways

1) The oblique headway distributions of all the sub-groups follow the

lognormal distribution. This finding is based on the one-sample Kolmogorov

-Smirnov test (p-values in Table 6.7).

2) Table 6.7 shows a pattern that the following distances become smaller as the

126
 following angles get wider.

3) There is no significant difference in the following distance between

following at the rear left and at the rear right. The t-test is employed to test

the logarithm of the following gaps. The results show that following distances in

groups (a), (b) and (c) of in Table 6.7 are not significantly different from groups

(d), (e) and (f) (two-tailed t-test, 0.084, 0.112 and 0.588) respectively.

6.2.3 Specification of the oblique & lateral headway model

The main objective of this section is to calibrate the oblique & lateral headway

model, Equations (4.17) and (4.18). The calibration of this model experiences similar

difficulties that the calibration of the longitudinal headway model has encountered.

Therefore, the technique of Bayesian analysis is introduced to this calibration process.

The detailed specifications of the model are described in this subsection.

The oblique & lateral headway distribution

It is assumed that the oblique (or lateral) headway follows the lognormal

distribution. This assumption is based on the findings in Section 6.2.2. Therefore,

2
∆Dntoblique ~lognormal ( µ ntoblique ,σ ntoblique ) ,
(6.20)

where ∆Dntoblique is the oblique following distance of a motorcycle n at time t; µ ntoblique and

σ ntoblique are the scale parameter and the shape parameter of the lognormal distribution

respectively.

The scale parameter

The scale parameter µ ntoblique is linked to the oblique headway model by assuming

the minimum oblique following distance is the mode of the oblique headway distribution.

The reason for this assumption is similar to that of the longitudinal headway model, i.e.

127
most of the motorcycles would follow the leading vehicle by maintaining the minimum

following distance in peak hours of the congested urban networks.

oblique oblique 2

∆Dntoblique ,min = e µnt −σ nt

(6.21)

2
µ ntoblique = ln(∆Dntoblique ,min ) + σ ntoblique ,
(6.22)

where ∆Dntoblique ,min is the minimum oblique following distance, which can be described

by using Equation (4.17) or Equation (4.18):

∆Dntoblique,min = (α long
min
0 + α long 1∆v nt + α long 2 v n −1,t ) cos θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat 1 ∆v nt ) sin θ nt
min min 2 2 min min 2 2

(6.23)

(α long
min
0 + α long 1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt )
min min min min
∆Dntoblique,min =
(α long
min
0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt
min min min min

(6.24)

where α long 0 , α long1 , α long 2 , α lat 0 and α lat1 are the coefficients. In WinBUGS, these

coefficients are assigned to follow the uniform distribution. In addition, reasonable finite

ranges are given.

α long 0 ~ uniform (-1,10)

(6.25)

α long1 ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.26)

α long 2 ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.27)

α lat 0 ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.28)

α lat1 ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.29)

The shape parameter

Three alternative assumption have been made to the shape parameter σ ntoblique :

1) σ ntoblique is a function of the following angle θ based on the formula of the

128
 ellipse.

σ ntoblique = ( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1 )2 cos 2 θ nt + β lat2 sin 2 θ nt .

(6.30)

2) σ ntoblique is a function of θ based on the formula of the hypotenuse in a right

triangle.

( β long 0 + β long1vn−1 ) × β lat

σ ntoblique = .
( β long 0 + β long1vn−1 ) sin θ + β lat cos θ
(6.31)

3) σ ntoblique is linearly related to θ and vn −1 (Equation (6.32)).

σ ntoblique = β 0 + β1vn−1 + β 2θ nt
(6.32)

In these equations, long0 , long1 , lat , 0 , 1 and 2 are the coefficients. In Equations

(6.30) and (6.31), the semimajor axis of the ellipse (see Figure 4.3a) and the longer leg of

the right triangle (see Figure 4.3b) are assumed to be a function of the leading speed. The

main reason for this assumption is that the leading speed can reflect the flow density,

which affects the headway distribution significantly. This point has been discussed earlier

when specifying the shape parameter for the longitudinal headway model in Section

6.1.3.2. The leading vehicle speed is used in these equations.

In WinBUGS, the coefficients are assigned to follow the uniform distribution. In

addition, reasonable finite ranges are given according to the values of σ ntoblique obtained

from the field data.

β long 0 ~ uniform (-1,10)

(6.33)

β long1 ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.34)

β lat ~ uniform (0,10)

(6.35)

β 0 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.36)
129
 β1 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.37)

β 2 ~ uniform (0,10)
(6.38)

The models to calibrate

Through the above discussion, the oblique & lateral headway model is developed

into three forms. These are summarised below:

1) The elliptic model: the elliptic model is given by Equations (6.20), (6.22), (6.23)

and (6.30) and is repeated below:

2
∆Dntoblique ~lognormal ( µ ntoblique ,σ ntoblique ) ,
2
µ ntoblique = ln(∆Dntoblique ,min ) + σ ntoblique ,

∆Dntoblique,min = (α long
min
0 + α long 1∆v nt + α long 2 v n −1,t ) cos θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat 1 ∆v nt ) sin θ nt
min min 2 2 min min 2 2

σ ntoblique = ( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1, t ) 2 cos 2 θ nt + β lat2 sin 2 θ nt

(6.39)

2) The triangular model: the triangular model is given by Equations (6.20), (6.22),

(6.24) and (6.31) and is repeated below:

2
∆Dntoblique ~lognormal ( µ ntoblique ,σ ntoblique ) ,
2
µ ntoblique = ln(∆Dntoblique ,min ) + σ ntoblique ,
(α long
min
0 + α long 1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt )
min min min min
∆Dntoblique,min = ,
(α long
min
0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt
min min min min

( β long 0 + β long 1vn −1, t ) × β lat

σ ntoblique =
( β long 0 + β long1vn −1, t ) sin θ nt + β lat sin θ nt
(6.40)

3) The triangular model with linear shape parameter: this model is given by

Equations (6.20), (6.22), (6.24) and (6.32) and is repeated below:

130
 2
∆Dntoblique ~lognormal ( µ ntoblique ,σ ntoblique ) ,
2
µ ntoblique = ln(∆Dntoblique ,min ) + σ ntoblique ,
(α long
min
0 + α long 1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) × (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt )
min min min min
∆Dntoblique,min = ,
(α long
min
0 + α long1∆vnt + α long 2 vn −1,t ) sin θ nt + (α lat 0 + α lat1 ∆vnt ) cos θ nt
min min min min

σ ntoblique = β 0 + β1vn −1,t + β 2θ nt

(6.41)

Their calibration results are presented in the following subsection.

6.2.4 The calibration results

The calibration of the three models (Equations (6.39), (6.40) and (6.41)) was

undertaken using WinBUGS. The calibration results are presented in this subsection.

6.2.4.1 The framework of the calibration using WinBUGS

In this calibration process, the oblique following distance ∆Dntoblique , the speed

difference ∆vnt , the preceding speed vn−1,t and the following angle θ nt are observable

and available from the database. The parameters needed to be calibrated are the

coefficients α long 0 , α long1 , α long 2 , α lat 0 , α lat1 , β long 0 , β long1 , β lat , β 0 , β1 and β 2 .

The details of the calibration process are presented in this subsection.

The observations with motorcycles following at the rear right of the leading

vehicles were chosen for this calibration. The reasons for this choice were:

1) Since it was found that there was no significant difference between following at

the rear left and the rear right (Section 6.2.2), it is not necessary to calibrate both

of them.

2) Motorcyclists riding near the inner lane were found to have weaker lateral and

oblique interactions.

Three MCMC chains were run with a burn-in of 5,000 iterations. Then, the model

was examined to ensure convergence after 20,000 iterations. The whole process is shown
131
in Figure 6.6 using DoodleBUGS.

long0 Doblique[i]

long0

long1

[i]
oblique
[i]
oblique
long1

long2

lat

lat0

lat1 vn-1[i] v[i] [i]

: a constant
: a stochastic or deterministic node
: a logical relationship
: a stochastic dependence
: the repeated part

Figure 6.6 The calibration of the oblique & lateral headway model using WinBUGS

6.2.4.2 The calibration results

The calibration results are listed in Table 6.8, Table 6.9 and Table 6.10. First, the

Markov chains are examined to ensure that convergence has occurred. Then, the values of

the parameters are reported. Finally, the implications of these results are also discussed.

Convergence diagnostics

The convergence diagnostic plots indicate that all the three models approximate to

convergence. This is concluded by using the techniques for analysing the convergence of

the model described in Section 6.1.4.2. The convergence of these models means that the

stationary distributions of the resulting Markov chains also approximate the joint
132
posterior distributions of interest.

Table 6.8 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the elliptic
model
Node Mean S.D. Gelman-Rubin Autocorrelation Trace Kernel density
a chains 1:3 a chains 1:3 a chains 3:1 a chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long0 0.28 0.26 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
2.0
1.5
0.0 1.0
0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.5
0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -1.0 0.0 1.0
iteration lag iteration

b chains 1:3 b chains 1:3 b chains 3:1 b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long1 0.18 0.03 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.4
0.3
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0 0.2
-0.5 0.1 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
iteration lag iteration

c chains 1:3 c chains 1:3 c chains 3:1 c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long2 0.42 0.03 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.6
0.5
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0
-0.5 0.4 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.3 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
iteration lag iteration

d chains 1:3 d chains 1:3 d chains 3:1 d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat0 0.97 0.16 1.0 1.0

0.5
2.0
1.5
3.0
2.0
0.5 0.0 1.0
-0.5 0.5 1.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
iteration lag iteration

f chains 1:3 f chains 1:3 f chains 3:1 f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat1 0.04 0.03 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.2
0.1
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0
-0.5 0.0 5.0
0.0 -1.0 -0.1 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -0.1 0.0 0.1
iteration lag iteration

o chains 1:3 o chains 1:3 o chains 3:1 o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long0 0.65 0.04 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.9
0.8
10.0

0.0 0.7 5.0

0.5 -0.5 0.6
0.0 -1.0 0.5 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
iteration lag iteration

p chains 1:3 p chains 1:3 p chains 3:1 p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long1 0.02 0.01 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.04
0.03
80.0
60.0
0.5 0.0 0.02 40.0
-0.5 0.01 20.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.02 0.04
iteration lag iteration

q chains 1:3 q chains 1:3 q chains 3:1 q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat 0.52 0.04 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.7
0.6
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0 0.5
-0.5 0.4 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.3 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
iteration lag iteration

DIC 3,623 - - - - -

133
Table 6.9 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular
model
Node Mean S.D. Gelman-Rubin Autocorrelation Trace Kernel density
a chains 1:3 a chains 1:3 a chains 3:1 a chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long0 -0.73 0.50 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.75
0.0 0.5
0.5 -1.0
-0.5 -2.0 0.25
0.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -4.0 -2.0 0.0
iteration lag iteration

b chains 1:3 b chains 1:3 b chains 3:1 b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long1 0.43 0.07 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.6
6.0
4.0
0.0 0.4
0.5 -0.5 0.2 2.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
iteration lag iteration

c chains 1:3 c chains 1:3 c chains 3:1 c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long2 1.57 0.19 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
2.5
2.0
3.0
2.0
0.0 1.5
0.5 -0.5 1.0 1.0
0.0 -1.0 0.5 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
iteration lag iteration

d chains 1:3 d chains 1:3 d chains 3:1 d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat0 1.17 0.11 1.0 1.0

0.5
1.8
1.6
1.4
4.0
3.0
0.5 0.0 2.0
1.2
-0.5 1.0 1.0
0.0 -1.0 0.8 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5
iteration lag iteration

f chains 1:3 f chains 1:3 f chains 3:1 f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat1 0.09 0.02 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.15
0.1
30.0
20.0
0.5 0.0
-0.5 0.05 10.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.05 0.1 0.15
iteration lag iteration

o chains 1:3 o chains 1:3 o chains 3:1 o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long0 0.58 0.04 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.7
10.0
7.5
0.0 0.6 5.0
0.5 -0.5 0.5 2.5
0.0 -1.0 0.4 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
iteration lag iteration

p chains 1:3 p chains 1:3 p chains 3:1 p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long1 0.02 0.01 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.04
0.03
80.0
60.0
0.0 0.02 40.0
0.5 -0.5 0.01 20.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.02 0.04
iteration lag iteration

q chains 1:3 q chains 1:3 q chains 3:1 q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat 0.89 0.07 1.0 1.0

0.5
1.4
1.2
6.0
4.0
0.5 0.0 1.0
-0.5 0.8 2.0
0.0 -1.0 0.6 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
iteration lag iteration

DIC 3,479 - - - - -

134
Table 6.10 Calibrating results of the oblique & lateral headway model using the triangular
model with linear shape parameter
Node Mean S.D. Gelman-Rubin Autocorrelation Trace Kernel density
a chains 1:3 a chains 1:3 a chains 3:1 a chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long0 -1.02 0.50 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
0.75
0.0 0.5
0.5 -1.0
-0.5 -2.0 0.25
0.0 -1.0 -3.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -4.0 -2.0 0.0
iteration lag iteration

b chains 1:3 b chains 1:3 b chains 3:1 b chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long1 0.51 0.07 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.8
0.6
6.0
4.0
0.0
0.5 -0.5 0.4 2.0
0.0 -1.0 0.2 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
iteration lag iteration

c chains 1:3 c chains 1:3 c chains 3:1 c chains 1:3 sample: 60000

long2 1.70 0.20 1.0 1.0

0.5
2.5
2.0
3.0
2.0
0.5 0.0
-0.5 1.5 1.0
0.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
iteration lag iteration

d chains 1:3 d chains 1:3 d chains 3:1 d chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat0 1.03 0.11 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
1.5
1.25
4.0
3.0
0.0 1.0 2.0
0.5 -0.5 0.75 1.0
0.0 -1.0 0.5 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.25 1.5
iteration lag iteration

f chains 1:3 f chains 1:3 f chains 3:1 f chains 1:3 sample: 60000

lat1 0.10 0.02 1.5

1.0
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.15
30.0
20.0
0.0 0.1
0.5 -0.5 0.05 10.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.05 0.1 0.15
iteration lag iteration

o chains 1:3 o chains 1:3 o chains 3:1 o chains 1:3 sample: 60000

0 0.50 0.04 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.7
0.6
15.0
10.0
0.5 0.0 0.5
-0.5 0.4 5.0
0.0 -1.0 0.3 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
iteration lag iteration

p chains 1:3 p chains 1:3 p chains 3:1 p chains 1:3 sample: 60000

1 0.02 0.00i 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.04
0.03
0.5 0.0 0.02
-0.5 0.01 50.0
0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 0.0 0.01 0.02 0.03
iteration lag iteration

q chains 1:3 q chains 1:3 q chains 3:1 q chains 1:3 sample: 60000

2 0.02 0.04 1.0 1.0

0.5
0.2
0.1
10.0
7.5
0.5 0.0 0.0 5.0
-0.5 -0.1 2.5
0.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0
5001 10000 15000 20000 0 20 40 24800 24850 24900 24950 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
iteration lag iteration

DIC 3,447 - - - - -
i
The actual value is 3.90×10-3.

Verification of the calibration results

The verification of the model calibration involves three stages. The first one is to

examine the convergence of the MCMC simulation. This has been discussed in the

previous part.

The second stage is to examine the statistics of the estimated parameters of the

oblique headway distribution. Table 6.11 lists the observed and estimated scale

parameters and shape parameters. Table 6.12 lists the deviations of the estimations.

Generally the estimated numbers look reasonable. However, among these models, it

shows a pattern that the elliptic model performs better in the ranges of 0 < θ ≤ 30 and

60 < θ < 90 whereas the triangular models have less deviations in the range of

135
30 < θ ≤ 60 .

Table 6.11 Comparisons between the estimated and the observed

statistics of the oblique following behaviour
Model
0 < θ ≤ 30 Observation (rear right) 1.92 0.83
Observation (rear left) 1.83 0.82
Estimation (elliptic) 1.93 0.78
Estimation (triangular) 2.05 0.65
Estimation (triangular with linear σ ) 2.01 0.62
30 < θ ≤ 60 Observation (rear right) 1.07 0.69
Observation (rear left) 0.95 0.56
Estimation (elliptic) 1.41 0.66
Estimation (triangular) 0.97 0.55
Estimation (triangular with linear σ ) 1.02 0.62
60 < θ < 90 Observation (rear right) 0.70 0.62
Observation (rear left) 0.65 0.51
Estimation (elliptic) 0.76 0.55
Estimation (triangular) 0.89 0.67
Estimation (triangular with linear σ ) 0.75 0.62

Table 6.12 Errors of the estimation results

Model
0 < θ ≤ 30 Elliptic model 2.95% -5.45%
Triangular model 9.36% -21.21%
Triangular model with linear σ 7.10% -24.84%
30 < θ ≤ 60 Elliptic model 40.01% 6.14%
Triangular model -3.68% -11.55%
Triangular model with linear σ 1.70% -0.30%
60 < θ < 90 Elliptic model 12.13% -3.70%
Triangular model 31.31% 17.32%
Triangular model with linear σ 10.28% 8.56%

In the final stage, the marginal distributions of these models are calculated and

visualised to examine the parameters estimated. These plots are shown in Figure 6.7. The

probability density distribution of the elliptic model are shown in Figure 6.7a and Figure

6.7b, of the triangular model are shown in Figure 6.7c and Figure 6.7d and of the

triangular model with linear shape parameter are shown in Figure 6.7e and Figure 6.7f.

136
 (m)

(m)

(a) The frequency of the relative positions (b) The contour of the frequency

(m)

(m)

(c) The frequency of the relative positions (d) The contour of the frequency

(m)

(m)

(e) The frequency of the relative positions (f) The contour of the frequency

Figure 6.7 The contours of the marginal distribution of the oblique & lateral
headway model

From these plots, it is found that the elliptic model and the triangular model show

unreasonable pattern of the probability density distribution although the modes of them

present the expected locus. However, the triangular model with linear shape parameter

137
shows ideal marginal distribution. The reason for the unstable distribution pattern of the

former two models could be that the mode of a lognormal distribution is affected by both

the scale and shape parameters. The shape parameter described by the polar coordinate

system will cause rapid change to the tail of the distribution curve when the angle is close

to 90°.

6.2.4.3 Model comparison

The model comparison function of the WinBUGS indicates that the triangular

model with linear shape parameter fit the data better. The model comparison is based on

the Deviance Information Criterion, DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002). DIC is an index

developed for model comparison in the Bayesian analysis approach. A lower DIC

represents a better model. The model with the higher DIC can be ruled out confidently

when the difference is more than 10 (The BUGS Project, 2006). In this case, the DIC

value of the specification of the elliptic model is 3,623, of the triangular model is 3,479

and of the triangular model with linear shape parameter is 3,447. This result is consistent

with the analysis of the marginal distribution of the models (see Figure 6.7).

When comparing the deviations of the estimation results (Table 6.12), it can be

found that the elliptic model performs better in the ranges of 0 < θ ≤ 30 and

60 < θ < 90 whereas the right triangular model has less deviation in the range of

30 < θ ≤ 60 . This implies that a curve which is flatter than the elliptic curve could be

more appropriate.

Finally, according to the comparison of the DIC values, the patterns of the

probability density distributions and the errors of the estimation results, the triangular

model with linear shape parameter is selected to represent the oblique following

behaviour of motorcycles in this study.

138
6.3 The path choice model

This section presents the calibration of the path choice model. In Chapter 4, the path

choice model has been developed in order to describe how a motorcyclist makes the

decision on making lateral movements, as shown in Equation (4.21). The path choice

behaviour is proposed to be depicted by a multinomial logit model. Here the original

model is re-listed as Equation (6.42) to facilitate the description of the calibration process.

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 2 forceFl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc+ 2 forceFc + 3 sizec

Vr = r + 1 speedr+ 2 forceFr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.42)

This section begins with the specifications and assumptions about the multinomial

logit model according to the characteristics of the field data. Based on the specifications,

a data set for the model estimation can be generated. Section 6.3.2 describes the

calibration method and tool. Section 6.3.3 describes the model refinements and the

estimation results.

6.3.1 Data selection and the data set

In order to calibrate the path choice model, a data set was selected from the database.

The behaviour of the motorcyclists in the database was analysed so the variables involved

in Equation (6.42) could be retrieved. The details of how the data set was generated are

described below.

1) Select every motorcycle in the database as the subject vehicle.

2) Search for the closest vehicle in front of the subject motorcycle and define it as

the leading vehicle.

3) Filter out the motorcycles with no leading vehicle.

4) Filter out the motorcycles that the leading vehicle is not a four wheeled vehicle.

139
 5) Calculate the variables involved in Equation (6.42).

The path choice model aims at describing how a motorcyclist reacts to the

constraint of the preceding vehicle. Steps 1), 2) and 3) control the selection of vehicle

pairs which are in longitudinal following relationship. In addition, a motorcycle is

unlikely to be constrained by a preceding motorcycle due to the narrow and

non-lane-based natures of motorcycles, so the condition of a motorcycle following

another motorcycle is excluded in step 4). Finally, a data set of 1,441 observations was

built. Then the variables involved in the path choice model were calculated. The

generation and calculation of these variables will be discussed further in the following

parts.

6.3.1.1 The choice set

The path choice model in Section 4.3 assumes that there are three alternatives in the

choice set: shifting leftwards, staying straight and shifting rightwards. In order to

calibrate this model, the choices of the motorcyclists should be recognised from trajectory

data. However, the intentions of motorcycles cannot be interpreted merely by observing

their trajectories. For example, the trajectory of a motorcycle does not follow a perfect

line. When it is moving straight ahead, it also exhibits some lateral oscillations. These

oscillations will affect the interpretation of their intentions. Hence, in order to overcome

the ‘white noise’ and have a systematic interpretation of the trajectory data, some rules for

translating the motorcycle trajectories into their choices set were proposed.

1) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+1 is

larger than 0.5 m, this motorcycle is then defined as choosing shifting leftwards

(or rightwards) at time t.

2) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+2 is

larger than 0.7 m and it maintains the same course during this period, this

140
 motorcycle is then defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or rightwards) at time

t and time t+1.

3) If a motorcycle’s difference of the lateral positions between time t and t+3 is

larger than 0.9 m and it maintains the same course during this period, this

motorcycle is, thus, defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or rightwards) at time

t, time t+1 and t+2.

4) If the motorcycle maintains the same course during the period time t to t+3 and it

has been defined as choosing shifting leftwards (or shifting rightwards) at both

time t and time t+2, accordingly, it is defined as having the same choice at time

t+1.

5) If the motorcycle has changed its preceding vehicle between time t and t+1, and

the interaction (defined by interacting force, see Section 6.3.1.2) with the new

preceding vehicle becomes weaker, this motorcycle is, accordingly, defined as

choosing a lateral movement at time t.

6) Any situations which are not included in the rules above are defined as keeping

straight.

7) If the preceding vehicle and the object (a vehicle or the kerb) beside it are

stationary, and the gap between them is smaller than 0.7 m, the choice through

this path is then defined as unavailable. Here 0.7 m is roughly the width of a

motorcycle.

Finally, the 1,441 observations in this data set can be discretised into three

categories according to the lateral moving condition. The sample frequencies of this

model are shown in the Table 6.13.

It is found that motorcyclists observed in the survey site were more likely to choose

shifting leftwards than shifting rightwards. This finding is consistent with the analyses in

Section 6.1.2.2 and Section 6.2.1. Motorcyclists near the inner lane had longer following

141
distances, higher speed differences and less lateral interaction because the inner lane had

more empty space. Thus, motorcyclists were more likely to shift leftwards when choosing

their paths.

Table 6.13 The sample frequencies of the alternatives

Observations %
Shifting leftwards 331 23.0
Keeping straight 983 68.2
Shifting rightwards 127 8.8
Total 1,441 100.0

6.3.1.2 The interacting force

The interacting force is an index for describing the interaction between two vehicles.

It is assumed that the interaction between two vehicles can be quantified by their

kinematic characteristics such as gap, speed difference, relative position, etc. Based on

this assumption, the interacting force can be represented by the headway models

developed earlier. Equations (6.5) and (6.20) are adopted to determine this quantity. The

interaction force is then defined as the survival function (reliability function) of the

lognormal distribution, i.e.

forcelongitudinal = 1 − Flognormal (∆Dnt ; µ nt , σ nt2 )

(6.43)

in a longitudinal following relationship and

2
forceoblique = 1 − Flognormal (∆Dntoblique
θ ; µ ntoblique
θ , σ ntoblique
θ )
(6.44)

in an oblique following relationship. In these two equations, forcelongitudinal and

forceoblique are the longitudinal and oblique interacting forces. Flognormal is the cumulative

distribution function of the lognormal distribution.

The range of the interacting force is between 0 and 1. It reflects the marginal

142
headway distribution of a following pair of vehicles (see Figure 6.7 for the example of

oblique following). For instance, when a motorcycle is following by maintaining a

distance of an interacting force of 0.8, it means that 80% of other motorcyclists will

maintain longer headways than this distance, given the same kinematic conditions.

In this calibration, the variable forceFc, the interaction with the vehicle ahead, is

calculated by using Equation (6.43); the variables forceFl, forceFr, forceRl and forceRr,

the interaction with the vehicle at oblique or lateral positions, is calculated by using

Equation (6.44).

6.3.1.3 Other explanatory variables

In addition to the interacting force, other explanatory variables of the path choice

model are described here.

The speeds in front and at the oblique front

The speeds of the preceding vehicle and the nearest ‘objects’ beside the preceding

vehicle are calculated for the variable speed in this calibration. The term ‘object’ refers to

the vehicle or kerb at each side of the preceding vehicle. If the object is the kerb, its speed

is then assumed to be equal to the speed of the preceding vehicle.

The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position

The variable dist is the lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position. There are

two paths for overtaking the preceding vehicle: from the left and from the right, as shown

in Figure 4.6. This variable refers to the lateral distance to the closer path.

The lateral clearance beside the preceding vehicle

The variable clear is the gap between the preceding vehicle and the object (a vehicle

or the kerb) beside it (at left or at right), as shown in Figure 4.6. If the lateral clearance is

larger than 2.7 m, then its value is fixed to be 2.7 m. This is based on the assumption that

143
the motorcyclist will not feel the utility difference of the width of a path when it is larger

than a certain level. The value 2.7 m is calculated from the width of the motorcycle, 0.7 m,

added by double safety lateral gap, 1 m for each side. The value 1 m is roughly the mode

of the lateral headway distribution for the overtaking model, the value of α lat 0 in Table

6.8.

The size of vehicles

The size of a vehicle is calculated by the area it occupies, the length multiplying the

width of the object, as shown in Figure 5.6.

Last movement

The variable last is a dummy variable, referring to the last movement of the

motorcycle. The value of this variable is defined as 1 if a lateral movement has been made

at the last time step, 0 otherwise.

6.3.2 The calibration tool

The path choice model was estimated using Biogeme (Bierlaire, 2003). Biogeme

(BIerlaire’s Optimization package for GEV Models Estimation) is an open source

package for the maximum likelihood estimation of utility models. It is chosen for

calibrating the path choice model due to the following reasons:

1) It is distributed free of charge.

2) It is a powerful tool capable of estimating discrete choice models including

Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) models and binary probit models.

3) Biogeme is comparatively flexible because of it is an open source package. Users

can expand the programme if they need extra functions.

4) It has complete technical documentation (Bierlaire, 2005) and a good user

support system (http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/biogeme/).

144
6.3.3 The calibration results

The calibration results and the model refinement will be presented here. In Section

6.3.3.1, the estimation results of the path choice model are presented. However, some of

these results do not in agreement with the prior expectation for the model. Thus, some

refinements to the original model are made and will be shown in Section 6.3.3.2.

6.3.3.1 The estimation results of the original model

The specification of the path choice model developed in Section 4.3 is summarised

in Table 6.14. The estimation results of this model are listed in Table 6.15.

Table 6.14 The multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour
l r 1 2 3
Speed of the The interacting force between Size of the vehicle at
Shifting leftwards 1 0
vehicle at the left the subject motorcycle and the the left of the
of the preceding vehicle at the left of the preceding vehicle (m2)
vehicle (m/sec) preceding vehicle
Speed of the The interacting force between Size of the preceding
Keeping straight 0 0
preceding vehicle the subject motorcycle and the vehicle (m2)
(m/sec) preceding vehicle
Speed of the The interacting force between Size of the vehicle at
Shifting rightwards 0 1
vehicle at the right the subject motorcycle and the the right of the
of the preceding vehicle at the right of the preceding vehicle (m2)
vehicle (m/sec) preceding vehicle

4 5 6 7
The lateral distance The lateral clearance The interacting force 1 if lateral
Shifting leftwards
for evading the between preceding between the subject movement to left
constraint of the vehicle and its left motorcycle and the is made at the last
preceding vehicle object (m) vehicle at the rear left time step, 0
from the left (m) or left otherwise
Keeping straight 0 0 0 0
The lateral distance The lateral clearance The interacting force 1 if lateral
Shifting rightwards
for evading the between preceding between the subject movement to right
constraint of the vehicle and its right motorcycle and the is made at the last
preceding vehicle object (m) vehicle at the rear right time step, 0
from the right (m) or right otherwise

In Table 6.15, most of the coefficients estimated show the expected sign except 2.

2 represents how the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front affects the path choice

behaviour. When the interacting force from a path is larger, the following motorcyclist

will try to evade it and the probability of choosing this path would be smaller. Hence, the

145
sign of 2 is expected to be negative. However, the estimation results show the value of

this coefficient is 0.24, which is not in agreement with the prior expectation. In addition to

the problem above, the t-test results of 2, 3, and 4 show that these three coefficients do

not differ from 0 at the significance level of 0.05. The critical value for this two-sided test

is ±1.96. Based on the analyses above, some refinements are made to this model. This

will be described in the following parts.

Table 6.15 Estimation results for the path choice model

Coefficient Variable name Coefficient Asymptotic t statistic
estimate standard error
l Shifting leftwards constant -2.02 0.25 -8.22
r Shifting rightwards constant -2.65 0.23 -11.49
1 Speed (m) 0.10 0.01 7.13
2 Interacting force ahead or at the 0.24 i 0.18 1.32 ii
oblique front
3 Vehicle size (m2) -0.01 0.01 -1.22 ii
4 Lateral distance to move (m) -0.04 0.09 -0.41 ii
5 Lateral clearance of the 0.39 0.10 3.88
preceding vehicle (m)
6 Interacting force aside or at -0.50 0.18 -2.74
oblique behind
7 The choice of the last time step 3.25 0.15 21.35

Summary statistics
Number of estimated parameters: 9
Number of observations: 1441
Null log-likelihood L(0): -1524.78
Final log-likelihood L( ): -819.337
Likelihood ratio test -2[L(0)-L( )]: 1410.88
2
: 0.462652
Adjusted 2: 0.456749
i
is expected to be negative sign.
ii
fails to pass the t test at significance level of 0.05, two-tailed.

6.3.3.2 Model refinements

In the original model proposed in Equation (6.42), the coefficient 2 shows an

unexpected sign and does not significantly differ from 0. The variable corresponding with

it is the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front. Therefore, some assumptions about

this variable are revised. These specifications are described below. Their estimation

results are listed in Table 6.16.

146
 The interacting force ahead or at the oblique front

Three alternative specifications for the interacting force, forceF, are proposed. Their

descriptions and equations are listed below:

1) Only the interacting forces at the front left and the front right are assumed to

affect the decision-making of a motorcyclist (Equation (6.45)).

2) Only the interacting force ahead is assumed to affect the path choice behaviour

(Equation (6.46)).

3) None of the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front affects the path choice

behaviour (Equation (6.47)).

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 2 forceFl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc + 3 sizec
Vr = r + 1 speedr+ 2 forceFr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.45)

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc + 2 forceFc + 3 sizec

Vr = r + 1 speedr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.46)

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc + 3 sizec
Vr = r + 1 speedr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.47)

The estimation results of the above three equations are shown in Table 6.16. The

value of 2 shows unexpected sign and does not differ from 0 in Equation (6.45). In

Equation (6.46), it shows the expected sign but still does not differ from 0. This means

that the variable forceFc does not affect the choice behaviour. When this variable is ruled
2
out from the model (Equation (6.47)), the value does not drop significantly. Therefore,

Equation (6.47) seems to be a better specification for the path choice behaviour.

147
 Table 6.16 Estimation results for the refinements of the path choice model
'
Equation l r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1

(6.42) -2.02 -2.65 0.10 0.24 ab -0.01 a -0.04 a 0.39 -0.50 3.25 -
b a
(6.45) -2.28 -2.92 0.09 0.59 -0.01 -0.02 a 0.42 -0.46 3.25 -
a a a
(6.46) -1.99 -2.64 0.09 -0.26 -0.01 -0.06 0.37 -0.50 3.23 -
a a
(6.47) -1.93 -2.57 0.10 - -0.01 -0.06 0.37 -0.51 3.24 -
ab a
(6.48) -2.18 -2.77 0.10 - 0.01 -0.03 0.45 -0.47 3.27 -
a
(6.49) -2.46 -3.16 0.09 - -0.05 -0.07 0.40 -0.48 3.26 -
(6.50) -2.53 -3.23 0.09 - -0.05 - 0.41 -0.50 3.27 -
(6.51) -2.93 -3.66 0.14 - -0.06 - 0.42 -0.46 3.27 0.05
2 2
Equation Parameters Observations L(0) L( ) -2[L(0)-L( )] Adj-
(6.42) 9 1441 -1524.78 -819.34 1410.88 0.4627 0.4567
(6.45) 9 1441 -1524.78 -816.95 1415.66 0.4642 0.4583
(6.46) 9 1441 -1524.78 -819.73 1410.10 0.4624 0.4565
(6.47) 8 1441 -1524.78 -820.21 1409.14 0.4621 0.4568

(6.48) 8 1441 -1524.78 -819.54 1410.47 0.4625 0.4573

(6.49) 8 1441 -1524.78 -812.67 1424.22 0.4670 0.4618
(6.50) 7 1441 -1524.78 -813.00 1423.57 0.4668 0.4622
(6.51) 8 1441 -1524.78 -807.45 1434.67 0.4705 0.4652
a fails to pass the t test at the significance level of 0.05, two-tailed.
b shows the unexpected sign.

From the outcomes, it seems that the interacting force ahead or at the oblique front

is not of most concern to the motorcyclists when they are determining the moving courses.

The results imply that:

1) The motorcyclists could be able to observe the traffic condition ahead in advance

and then make lateral movements before having interacted with the vehicles

ahead or at the oblique front.

2) The motorcyclists could still make lateral movements even if they have been

involved in the congested traffic and have strongly interacted with the vehicles

ahead or at the oblique front.

3) Other factors such as the widths of the lateral clearances are likely to be more

important than the interacting forces ahead or at the oblique front.

Based on this specification, some further revisions of the model specifications are

made. These refinements will be presented later in this section.

148
 The vehicle size

According to the analysis earlier, the estimation results of Equation (6.42) show that

the coefficient of the vehicle size, 3, fails to pass to t-test. Therefore, similar to the

revising procedure done to Equations (6.45) to (6.47), manipulation to the variable of the

vehicle size is made. The equations of these revisions are shown as Equations (6.48) and

(6.49). The former assumes that only the vehicles at the oblique front affect the path

choice behaviour of a motorcyclist, whereas the latter assumes that only the vehicle ahead

affects that of a motorcyclist.

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 3 sizel + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc
Vr = r + 1 speedr + 3 sizer + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.48)

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 4 distl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc + 3 sizec
Vr = r + 1 speedr + 4 distr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.49)

The estimation results of these two equations are also shown in Table 6.16. The

value of 3 in Equation (6.48) shows unexpected sign and does not differ from 0.

However, 3 in Equation (6.49) shows reasonable result. This indicates that the size of the

vehicle ahead does affect the path choice behaviour of a motorcyclist, but the sizes of the

vehicles at the oblique front are not the main concern of the motorcyclist. The results

imply that:

1) A large preceding vehicle will obstruct the angle of view of the following

motorcyclist. It also brings higher psychological pressure to the following

vehicles. In addition, heavy vehicles tend to have slower speed. Thus, a

motorcyclist will avoid following behind a large vehicle.

2) When making a lateral moving, motorcyclists worry more about the widths of the

paths rather than the vehicles which form the virtual lanes, so the sizes of the

149
 vehicles at the oblique front are not the main concern of the motorcyclist.

The lateral distance to the ready-to-overtake position

The estimation results of Equation (6.42) show that the coefficient of the lateral

distance to the ready-to-overtake position, 4, also fails to pass to t-test. Therefore, this

variable is excluded from this model. The equation of this revision is shown as Equation

(6.50).

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

Vc = 1 speedc + 3 sizec
Vr = r + 1 speedr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.50)

The estimation results of the above equation are also listed in Table 6.16. The
2
comparison of the values between Equations (6.49) and (6.50) shows that it does not

drop significantly (from 0.4670 to 0.4668) after the variable has been ruled out from the

model. This means the difference between the current lateral positions is not the main

concern of a motorcyclist for choosing his lateral moving direction. In fact, the maximum

difference of the lateral distances between to the left path and to the right path is only

around 1.7 m, which is the width of the preceding vehicle. Thus, it is not surprising that

the value of 4 is not significantly different from 0.

The generic attribute

In Equation (6.50), the variable speed is the only generic attribute shared among all

the three alternatives. Therefore, a test is conducted to examine this generic attribute. The

alternative specific model is proposed as Equation (6.51). Its estimation results are also

listed in Table 6.16.

Vl = l + 1 speedl + 5 clearl + 6 forceRl + 7 lastl

'
Vc = 1 speedc + 3 sizec
Vr = r + 1 speedr + 5 clearr + 6 forceRr + 7 lastr
(6.51)

150
 The null hypothesis is that there is no significant difference between Equations

(6.50) and (6.51). The likelihood ratio test statistic (Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985b) for

this test is

-2 [L( G) - L( AS)]
(6.52)

where G and AS are the generic (Equation (6.44)) and the alternative specific (Equation

(6.45)) models, respectively. It is chi-square distributed with the number of degrees of

freedom equal to (KAS-KG), where Kn is the number of parameters in model n.

In this case, the generic model is Equation (6.50) whereas the alternative specific

model is Equation (6.51). The value of the test statistic with 1 degree of freedom is 11.1.

By this value, the null hypothesis is rejected at the significance level of 0.05, as the value

of χ12,0.05 is 3.84.

(KAS-KG)= 8 – 7 = 1
(6.53)

-2 [L( G) - L( AS)] = - 2 ( - 813.00 + 807.45 ) = 11.1

(6.54)

2
In addition, the comparison of the values between Equations (6.50) and (6.51)
2
shows that the latter has a higher . This means that Equation (6.51) comparatively has a

better fit to the data.

Summary of the model refinement and model calibration

After the refinement process, Equation (6.51) is employed to represent the path

choice behaviour of motorcyclists. The detailed specifications and estimation results are

show in Equation (6.55), Table 6.17 and Table 6.18.

Vl = -2.93 + 0.14 speedl + 0.42 clearl – 0.46 forceRl + 3.27 lastl

Vc = 0.05 speedc – 0.06 sizec
Vr = -3.66 + 0.14 speedr + 0.42 clearr – 0.46 forceRr + 3.27 lastr
(6.55)

151
 Table 6.17 Refined multinomial logit model for path choice behaviour
'
l r 1 1 2
Speed of the vehicle at
Shifting leftwards 1 0 0 0
the left of the preceding
vehicle (m/sec)
Speed of the preceding Size of the
Keeping straight 0 0
vehicle (m/sec) preceding vehicle
(m2)
Speed of the vehicle at
Shifting rightwards 0 1 0 0
the right of the preceding
vehicle (m/sec)

5 6 7
The lateral clearance The interacting force between 1 if lateral movement to
Shifting leftwards
between preceding vehicle the subject motorcycle and the left is made at the last
and its left object (m) vehicle at the rear left or left time step, 0 otherwise
Keeping straight 0 0 0
The lateral clearance The interacting force between 1 if lateral movement to
Shifting rightwards
between preceding vehicle the subject motorcycle and the right is made at the last
and its right object (m) vehicle at the rear right or right time step, 0 otherwise

Table 6.18 Estimation results for the refined path choice model
Coefficient Variable name Coefficient Asymptotic t statistic
estimate standard error
l Shifting leftwards constant -2.93 0.28 -10.53
r Shifting rightwards constant -3.66 0.29 -12.65
1 Speed of the vehicles at the 0.14 0.02 6.85
oblique front (m)
'
1 Speed of the vehicle ahead (m) 0.05 0.02 2.56
3 Vehicle size (m2) -0.06 0.01 -4.14
5 Lateral clearance of the 0.42 0.10 4.38
preceding vehicle (m)
6 Interacting force aside or at -0.46 0.18 -2.58
oblique behind
7 The choice of the last time step 3.27 0.15 21.42

Summary statistics
Number of estimated parameters: 8
Number of observations: 1441
Null log-likelihood L(0): -1524.78
Final log-likelihood L( ): -807.445
Likelihood ratio test -2[L(0)-L( )]: 1434.67
2
: 0.470451
Adjusted 2: 0.465204

6.4 Discussion

During the process of model development and calibration, several unsuccessful

attempts have been made. These attempts are reviewed here. In addition, the advantage of

the database developed in Chapter 5, which is flexible and powerful to support the model

152
revision and calibration process, is also discussed.

6.4.1 Tackling the systematic error of the data

In Section 5.4.3, the systematic error of the data caused by pixel resolution was

discussed. This type of error increased along with longitudinal distance. It was

suggested that this error could be controlled by adding an error term to the model which

describes these data. Therefore, unt in Equation (6.17) and unt' in ∆Dntmin of Equation

(6.18) were specified to describe this error by assuming that the variances of them were

linearly related to the longitudinal distance of the survey area. Hence, unt and unt' could

be formulated as:

unt ~ normal ( µ safety _ margin ,σ pixel

2
_ resolution )
(6.56)

σ pixel _ resolution = α pixel _ resolution _ 0 + α pixel _ resolution _ 1 xreal

(6.57)

unt' ~ normal ( µ safety

'
_ margin , σ pixel _ resolution )
'
2

(6.58)

σ 'pixel _ resolution = α 'pixel _ resolution _ 0 + α pixel

'
_ resolution _ 1 xreal
(6.59)

In these equations, µ safety _ margin , µ safety

'
_ margin , α pixel _ resolution _ 0 , α pixel _ resolution _ 1 ,

α 'pixel _ resolution _ 0 and α 'pixel _ resolution _ 1 were the parameters to be calibrated. xreal was the

longitudinal distance in coordinate of the survey site.

When applying these adjustments to the calibration process, however, the MCMC

simulation did not achieve convergence, i.e. the models did not fit the data well after

making these adjustments. This result implied that the variance of the error did not

increase along with the longitudinal distance strictly. Also, the systematic error caused by

the pixel resolution did not dominate the magnitude of the error term.

153
6.4.2 Comparisons between the assumptions of non-lane-based movements
and dynamic virtual lane-based movements of motorcycles

There are three alternative assumptions on which the development of the models for

motorcycle behaviour can rest: lane-based movements, non-lane-based movements and

dynamic virtual lane-based movements.

1) Lane-based movements: It has been discussed in Chapter 3 that the

conventional vehicle-following and lane-changing models were developed to

describe the lane-based traffic. Chapter 3 has also concluded that these

lane-based models are not suitable to be applied to motorcycles.

2) Non-lane-based movements: The way that the motorcyclist dodges the possible

collisions is similar to the behaviour of a person in a pedestrian flow. The

simulation of pedestrian behaviour usually uses single equation based on

non-lane based assumption (Helbing et al., 2001; Antonini et al., 2006).

Therefore, this study has tried to model the behaviour of motorcycles by

assuming that the movements of motorcycles are non-lane-based, but it turned

out that this assumption did not work well on mixed traffic modelling and

simulation.

3) Dynamic virtual lane based: The models developed in this study assume that

motorcycles travel according to the virtual lanes formed dynamically by the

vehicles in surroundings.

The differences between the models based on non-lane-based and the dynamic

virtual lane-based assumptions are reviewed below. Through the comparisons, the

reasons that the former assumption is not suitable for describing the motorcycle

behaviour are discussed.

154
 Data selection rules

The data set which is generated based on the non-lane-based assumption could be

biased. For example, as shown in Figure 6.8, given that vehicle A is the subject

motorcycle. When selecting the closest vehicle for calibrating the minimum following

distance, vehicle B will be chosen under the non-lane-based condition. By such a

selecting rule, the vehicles aside or at the oblique front will have higher probability to be

selected as the closest vehicle because the lateral safety distance is far smaller than the

longitudinal safety distance in a traffic flow. Therefore, the selected following distances

at the longitudinal direction are extremely small. This is even significant when comparing

the longitudinal headway distributions between passenger cars and motorcycles.

This is a critical problem because the vehicle-following relationship is the most

important property in road traffic modelling. This bias in describing the longitudinal

headway cannot be ignored.

Oblique following Overtaking

Longitudinal
following

A
Oblique following Overtaking

Figure 6.8 The minimum following distance under the non-lane based assumption

Instead, when the dynamic virtual lane-based assumption is adopted, vehicle D is

the closest vehicle for longitudinal following and vehicle B is the one for oblique

following. It seems that these following relationships in different regimes should be

counted into consideration separately. Therefore, the dynamic lane-based assumption is

more realistic and sensible for describing the motorcycle behaviour.

155
 Model specifications: single regime vs. multi-regimes

This study assumes that the behaviour of motorcycles is dynamic lane-based and,

accordingly, categorises the behaviour of motorcycles into three groups under this

assumption, as shown in Figure 2.4. The behaviour patterns of motorcycles in different

regimes are described by different models.

In addition to the models presented in Chapter 4, another model for describing the

motorcycle behaviour has been developed under the non-lane-based assumption. This

model attempted to describe all regimes in a single model. In this model, it was assumed

that the following distance was the function of the following angles , the speed

differences v, the lateral distance needed to move d w , the reaction time , the
~
speculative leading deceleration b and the lateral speed vw. The formulation of the

model was (Lee et al., 2006):

~
∆vnt (v wτ + d ntw ) − 0.5b τ (v wτ + 2d ntw )
∆D min
= ~
v w cos θ nt + (∆vnt − b τ ) sin θ nt
nt

(6.60)

d ntw

Figure 6.9 The conceptual illustration of Equation (6.60)

It was found that a single equation based on non-lane based assumption is not

suitable for modelling motorcycles. The reasons are:

1) Data for calibration: This point has been described in the previous part. The

vehicle at the oblique or lateral direction is more likely to be selected as an

adjacent vehicle than the vehicle at the longitudinal direction.

2) Moving direction: Although motorcycles have more freedom of lateral

156
 movements, they still travel by following the direction of the lanes.

3) Speed and size difference: A mixed traffic flow is heterogeneous in speeds and

sizes but homogeneous in directions. A slow moving vehicle or a large vehicle

can block its following vehicle easily. Being obstructed by a leading vehicle or

not, motorcycle will exhibit total different behaviour patterns.

The above analyses show that the non-lane-based assumption is unsuitable for

describing the behaviour of motorcycles. Thus, the models presented in this study are

developed based on the assumption that motorcycles travel following the dynamic virtual

lanes formed by the vehicles in surroundings.

6.4.3 Comparison between the conventional Stochastic Frontier Analysis

and the approach proposed in this section

In Section 6.1.3, a technique similar to the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) was

presented to calibrate the longitudinal headway model. The longitudinal headway of a

motorcycle was assumed to be lognormally distributed and it was affected simultaneously

by a non-negative error term which represented the inefficiency of the motorcyclist. In

addition, this study has attempted to employ the conventional stochastic frontier

modelling to calibrate the longitudinal headway model, but did not obtain satisfactory

results. The comparison between these two approaches is discussed.

The Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model

The typical form of a Stochastic Frontier Analysis model has two error terms, as

shown in Equation (6.61). vi is a random error, usually characterised by a normal

distribution (Equation (6.62)). ui is a non-negative variable which is assumed to account

for technical inefficiency in production. Sometimes ui is an unknown probability

distribution or is specified as a truncated normal distribution (Equation (6.63)).

157
 Yi = xi β + ui + vi
(6.61)

vi ~normal (0, σ v2 )
(6.62)

ui ~truncated_normal (0, σ u2 )
(6.63)

When using WinBUGS to calibrate Equation (6.61), the normality of vi is utilised

(Griffin and Steel, 2005). Thus, Equation (6.64) can be formulated by combining

Equations (6.61) and (6.62).

Yi ~ normal ( xi β + ui , σ v2 )
(6.64)

Link the approach proposed in this section to the SFA model

In this section, a SFA-like approach is proposed to calibrate the longitudinal

headway model. This SFA-like approach assumes that Yi is lognormally distributed and

the central tendency of the distribution is represented by the mode.

Yi ~ lognormal ( µ ,σ v2 )
(6.65)

mode = xi + ui
(6.66)

In a lognormal distribution, the mode can be expressed as:

2
mode = e µ −σ
(6.67)

By combining Equations (6.65), (6.66) and (6.67), the SFA-like model can be

derived.

Yi ~ lognormal (ln( xi β + ui ) + σ v2 , σ v2 )
(6.68)

Model comparison between the SFA and the SFA-like models

To apply the SFA model (Equation (6.64)) to the calibration of the longitudinal

headway model, Yi is replaced by ∆Dnt to represent the observed headway, xi is

158
replaced by the ∆Dntmin of Equation (6.1) to represent the minimum following distance

and ui represents the safety margin, shown in Equation (6.69). Two specifications are

applied to the prior of ui, shown in Equation (6.70) and Equation (6.71).

∆Dnt ~normal( ∆Dntmin + ui , σ v )

2

(6.69)

ui ~ uniform (au, bu)

(6.70)

ui ~ lognormal ( µu , σ u2 )
(6.71)

Equation (6.69) is calibrated by using the data set under the condition that

motorcycles follows in the right half. The results are shown in Table 6.19.

Table 6.19 Comparison of the calibration results between the conventional

stochastic frontier analysis and the approach used in this study
~
Approachi DIC b" b vw ∆D min
SFA- using Equations (6.69) & (6.70) 2,870 -3.52 -3.33 0.06ii 15.57
SFA- using Equations (6.69) & (6.71) 2,869 -3.53 -3.31 0.07ii 15.69
The SFA-like approach 2,677 -4.32 -3.82 2.70 4.59
i
Use the data of following in the right half
ii
The posterior density distribution curve are not smooth

The results show that the SFA-like approach proposed in this study fits the data set

better than does the conventional SFA approach. The reasons are explained below:

1) The DIC values indicate that the SFA-like approach fits the data better. In

Section 6.2.4.3, the use of DIC has been introduced. In this case, the differences

are around 200. This means the SFA-like model is the better model to describe

the field data.

2) The conventional SFA setup produces some unreasonable results. The values

obtained from the conventional SFA models are not consistent with properties of

the database. For example, the average minimum following distance ∆D min

observed from the field data is around 5 m. However, the value calibrated is

159
 around 15.5 m, which is around the value of the average speed. In addition, the

posterior densities of the lateral speed vw from the conventional SFA models do

not present smooth curves. According to the principles of diagnosing

convergence (see Section 6.1.4.2), this is a sign of not convergent. All this

implies that the specification of the conventional SFA models cannot describe the

swerving manoeuvres of motorcycles.

3) No evidence supports that vi is normally distributed. The arbitrary assumption

of the normality of vi (Equation (6.62)) could be the reason that the conventional

SFA models cannot describe the headway properly. The assumption made to the

distribution type of vi is the most important prior assignment in the calibration

process (Equation (6.69)). This affects the calibration results significantly.

However, according to the basic analysis of the headway distribution in Section

6.1.2, no evidence can support this assumption. Therefore, the assumption that vi

is normally distributed could be improper.

6.4.4 The advantage of the data collection method

Through the calibration processes, the database developed in Chapter 5 has

demonstrated that it was capable of providing sufficient information for modelling the

motorcycle behaviour.

It has been concluded from the literature review in Section 3.2 that the availability

of the data set was a crucial issue for modelling the motorcycle behaviour by a

microscopic approach. The database developed in Chapter 5 has contained and recorded

all the details of the traffic trajectories from the survey area. Traffic parameters from all

aspects could be generated from the database easily to support the calibration processes.

For example, the calibration of the path choice model required some particular

information such as the lateral moving distance of a motorcycle in the third second earlier

160
(see Section 6.3.1.1). This database could generate these data without difficulties. In

addition, once the proposed model required to be revised dramatically (See 6.4.2 for

example), no supplementary data collection had to be arranged. Above all, through a data

selection approach, the data set could be generated from this database objectively and

thoroughly. This ensured that the data set would not be affected by the subject judgement

of researchers during the data collection and selection process.

In summary, the data collection method employed in Chapter 5 was proven to be

able to support the motorcycle movement study and to provide a wide variety of

information objectively and flexibly.

161
7 The Agent-Based Traffic Simulator

This chapter aims at describing the development of a simulator characterised by

agent-based modelling. The mathematical models developed in the previous chapters are

applied to this simulator, which targets on simulating the mixed traffic flow consisting of

motorcycles and other types of vehicles.

The outline of this chapter is as follows: The first section introduces the concept of

agent-based modelling and its benefits to a traffic simulation system. The second section

describes the specification of the agent-based traffic simulator developed in this study.

The third section presents the verification of this simulator and the final section offers

three applications of this simulator.

7.1 Agent-based modelling

The concept of agent-based modelling was the natural extension of artificial

intelligence, which developed in the late 1950s (O'

Sullivan and Haklay, 2000), but it did

not develop rapidly until the beginning of the 1990s (Müller, 1996). From then on,

agent-based modelling has become more and more important for analysing and

understanding complex phenomena (O'

Sullivan and Haklay, 2000). Also, this technique

is powerful in terms of investigating the spatially distributed systems of heterogeneous

autonomous actors (Epstein, 1999). Here the relationship between agent-based modelling

and traffic simulation will be elaborated.

7.1.1 The agent and agent-based modelling

Agents

The term ‘agent’ is a concept without rigid definition. There is a lack of agreement

over what is an agent (Franklin and Graesser, 1997) and what actually constitutes an
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agent (d'
Inverno and Luck, 2001). In this study, this term is defined by summarising the

definitions given by Wooldridge and Jennings (1995), Franklin and Graesser (1997) and

Epstein (1999): an agent is an autonomous software entity which is situated within (or

acts as a component of) an artificial environment, being able to sense and interact to its

neighbour agents and local environments, over time, to achieve its own goal and so as to

effect what it senses in the future.

According to the above definition, the term ‘agent’ here refers to a type of the

artificial life agent (Langton, 1989) and the computational agent (Franklin and Graesser,

1997). Some characteristics of agents can be yielded:

1) Autonomy: agents have internal states (attributes, memory, data, etc.) and are

able to act and make decision without the instructions from central control.

2) Goal-oriented: agents act to meet their design objectives.

3) Interaction: agents act and interact according to the given interaction rules. They

are capable of interacting and communicating with other agents and perceiving

and responding to the changes of their environments.

4) Explicit environment: the environment is the space and time context in which

the agents and events are situated. The environment changes dynamically over

time and could consist of different types of agents.

5) Temporal continuity: agents react in a timely fashion to the changes in the

environment. Their actions in the current time step would affect what they sense

later.

6) Local information and interactions: agents have bounded information and

bounded computing power. They act based on local information; they interact

with neighbours in the environment.

Agent-based modelling

Agent-based modelling, or multi-agent based modelling, is a microscopic computer

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simulation technique focusing on simulating the actions and interactions of a cluster of

computational agents. By doing so, the macroscopic phenomena or some emergent

phenomena can be represented by the simulation system. This is a powerful tool for

providing the researchers an insight into a complex system from a bottom-up view, i.e. to

investigate a complex phenomenon by modelling the simple interactions of its

components.

Taking the artificial life agent for example, in an artificial life simulation system, a

virtual man-made landscape is built and some artificial lives are settled. The components

which interact to each other in this system are called agents. By assigning these agents

attributes similar to their counterparts in the real world, this technique is able to represent

the characteristics of a natural living system.

Agent-based modelling is a powerful tool for analysing spatially distributed

systems and for empirical research (Epstein, 1999). This technique has several

advantages, for example, its visual representation medium, its ability to describe

non-linear models, being powerful in empirical research, and being able to alter the

parameters of the model and repeatedly test the sensitivity of theories. In addition, it

enables researchers to observe how the individual behaviour generates the macroscopic

regularities. As reported in many articles, agent-based modelling has been used in a wide

range of domains (O'

Sullivan and Haklay, 2000), from the flocking behaviour of animals

(Reynolds, 1987; Dussutour et al., 2004) and human movement patterns (Helbing et al.,

2000) to economic and sociological scopes.

7.1.2 Agent-based modelling and traffic simulation

Traffic is a complex phenomenon

Traffic is viewed as a complex system (Nagel and Rasmussen, 1994) which is

high-dimensional and non-linear in nature. It is suitable for being investigated by using

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the agent-based modelling technique because traffic phenomena emerge from the

interactions of drivers, pedestrians, traffic controllers and other components involved.

For example, a vehicle in the traffic flow can be viewed as an agent. It is a part of its

environment, i.e. the traffic networks. This agent can sense and interact with the

environment by knowing the existence and movements other adjacent vehicles on roads.

It continuously exists in the environment (networks) until achieving its goal (reaching the

destination). Thus, the behaviour of vehicles in networks fit the characteristics of agents

defined in Section 7.1.1. The agent-based modelling is believed to be an ideal tool for

simulating the traffic flow.

Microscopic traffic simulation and agent-based modelling

Traffic simulation models have been developed after the introduction of computers

in 1950s (Skabardonis and May, 1998). These models can be divided into three categories:

microscopic, mesoscopic and macroscopic, which are classified according to the level of

detail of representing the traffic system. Within these three categories, the microscopic

models describe the system based on simulating the movements and interactions of the

system entities. As each vehicle in the system progress in the networks to reach its

destination according to certain rules, this type of traffic simulation models actually

connote the concept of agent-based modelling. However, despite the similarity, not all the

microscopic traffic models are programmed by using the agent-based modelling

technique. There are two simple ways to tell the differences between these two types of

models:

1) The distributed database system: An important characteristic of agent-based

modelling is the distributed database system, which enables each entity to have

its own memory for holding attributes and data. Such database system has the

advantage over the centralised database system when dealing with the

communication and the one-to-multiple interactions (such as the path choice

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 model in Section 4.3) among agents. On the contrary, such relationships and

interactions between entities will make a centralised database complicated.

2) The simulation process: Another way to examine whether a simulation model is

agent-based is to investigate its simulation process. An agent should have

encapsulated all its behaviour, decision-making process, properties and memory

into an autonomous entity. When scheduling the events in the simulation

programme, there would be no complex statements to direct the agents’ actions

in the main simulating procedure. For example, the ‘Swarm-like'procedure

introduced in Sections 7.1.4 and 7.2 is a typical simulation process of

agent-based modelling.

Agent-based traffic simulation models

Several models have claimed or been claimed to be agent-based. Some of them

were developed for specific objectives which relied on the agent-based technique to

provide better solutions. Nagel and Schreckenberg’s cellular automata model (1992) has

generally been interpreted as an agent-based model. Their model, further developed into

TRANSIMS (Smith, 1995), demonstrated that the complex traffic phenomena were

shown to emerge from the interactions of some simple rules between vehicles. Its

agent-based structure also demonstrated the ability of parallel computing, so a large scale

simulation could be conducted. Bazzan et al. (1999) adopted Nagel and Schreckenberg’s

model (1992) to investigate the impacts of drivers’ long-term route choice strategies on

the traffic in networks. Nagel and Raney (2003) further used this technique to simulate

the route choosing and learning process of up to 7.5 million travellers in the urban

networks. The agent-based model of El Hadouaj et al. (2000) enabled drivers to make

their mid-term plan by reacting to the movements of a cluster of vehicles. Paruchuri et al.

(2002) used an agent-based model to simulate the traffic flow, so the aggressive level of

the drivers can be modelled. Hidas (2005) modelled the lane-changing behaviour in a

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congested flow in which the vehicles needed to cooperation with others to make

movements.

These simulation models employed the agent-based technique to achieve certain

objectives which were more difficult to be accomplished by using the non-agent-based

programming methods. These models showed that the distributed control system was

capable of dealing with the situations such as one-to-multiple interactions, heterogeneous

traffic, different driving strategies, learning, and cooperation between drivers. These are

important issues that a model for simulating motorcycle behaviour will face.

7.1.3 Agent-based modelling for this study

This study intends to develop a simulator which is able to describe the

two-dimensional movements and decision-making processes of motorcycles in mixed

traffic. However, a traffic system containing motorcycle, particularly in urban networks,

usually has complex interactions among vehicles. The agent-based modelling technique

is chosen for this task due to the following reasons:

1) Heterogeneous traffic: In mixed traffic, different types of vehicles have

different attributes, including vehicles’ physical and kinematic properties,

drivers’ characteristics and behaviour patterns, and drivers’ manoeuvring

strategies and decision-making processes. The variety of the attributes makes the

database arrangement and the software programming complicated. The

agent-based architecture is a solution for this type of problems.

2) Multi-vehicular interaction: The interactions between a motorcycle and its

surroundings are complex. The agent-based technique is suitable for representing

such interaction by providing each agent the computational ability and memory

to identify its neighbourhood and make decisions. For example, in the simulation

programme, in order to simulate the path choice behaviour, the vehicles around

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 the subject motorcycle have to be searched before their relationships to the

subject motorcycle are recognised. After the information has been gathered, the

motorcyclist’s decision of path choice then can be calculated. Using the

agent-based programming architecture will make this software developing

process easier.

3) Conflicts among the manoeuvring strategies: There are conflicts among a

motorcyclist’s manoeuvring strategies when he is moving towards his

destination. The manoeuvring strategies of a motorcyclist could generally be

grouped into three categories, i.e. the short-term, mid-term and long-term plans.

The short-term plan of a motorcyclist is the vehicle following behaviour and the

gap acceptance behaviour. The movements are determined by the vehicle

following models and the rules of gap acceptance. The mid-term plan is decided

by the path choice behaviour, which is the tactic to progress through (or within) a

cluster of vehicles. The long-term plan is to reach the destination of the journey,

which is the goal of the vehicle. Sometimes there are conflicts between these

plans. For example, when a motorcycle is having a long headway, the

vehicle-following model would direct it to speed up and move straight forwards,

whereas the path choice model might suggest it to make a lateral movement to

get a better chance to progress through the cluster of vehicles in front. To deal

with this type of conflicts, the entities in the simulation system should have

memory and the computational ability to make decisions. Again, the

agent-oriented programming is suitable for this task.

4) Cooperation between agents: The term ‘cooperation’ usually refers to that the

entities of a system work together to achieve their common goal. However, the

cooperation behaviour here describes the situation that an agent gives way to

another agent, similar to the study in Hidas (2005). In the conventional

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 microscopic traffic models, vehicles usually react to the environment passively.

However, motorcyclists tend to adopt an active driving style and make progress

by making use of opportunities (Martin et al., 2001). Such driving style

sometimes causes conflicts between different vehicle types. For example,

sometimes motorcyclists pull out into small gaps (Horswill and Helman, 2003),

forcing the lag vehicle to follow by an extremely small safety margin. This is a

condition that the conventional gap acceptance and car-following theories do not

consider. As a result, these conventional theories will direct the lag vehicle to

exhibit unrealistic movements, i.e. it will react to the short following distance by

applying severe brakes. Therefore, these conventional theories cannot represent

the weaving behaviour of motorcycles. However, this type of conflicts can be

tackled by the negotiation and cooperation ability of the agent-based modelling

effortlessly. Through the cooperation between the motorcycle and the lag vehicle,

the latter will anticipate the merging of the motorcycle, make a mid-term plan for

it, and react to the extremely short following distance gently after the motorcycle

has cut in.

From the above discussions, it can be summarised that, generally, a

non-agent-based microscopic traffic simulation model can represent the movements of

the vehicles properly. However, the agent-based modelling is more powerful from the

viewpoint of programming technique. By using an agent-based programming, it is easier

to manage the properties, the memory and the neighbourhood information of the vehicles.

In addition, the distributed nature of the programming technique enhances the

performance of the entities without making the event scheduling process complicated. As

a result, the spatial interactions, the update of local information and the message

exchange between vehicles can be programmed without difficulties. All this makes the

agent-based modelling an ideal tool for this simulator.

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7.1.4 Selecting the agent-based modelling tool for this study

Currently, a number of programming libraries or software packages developed for

agent-based modelling are available. Also, some microscopic traffic simulation models

which use the concept of agent-based modelling have been developed. This subsection

will, firstly, introduce a number of tools and then determine a suitable one for this study.

Requirements

In order to meet the nature of this study, several criteria have to be taken into

consideration. These are introduced as follows:

1) Bottom-up approach: The microscopic simulation should provide the support to

define local behaviours of entities.

2) Availability of the source code: The source code of software should be available,

so it can provide the largest flexibility to modify the model.

3) Visual display: The visual representation medium is indispensable to an

agent-based model. In addition, the visual is an important feature in traffic

modelling (Gipps, 1986c), especially for examining the trajectories of

motorcycles in this study.

4) Object-oriented programming: Agent-based modelling can be programmed in

any language, but the object-oriented programming (OOP) languages such as

Java, Visual Basic, C++, etc are the most appropriate (for example, Luck et al.,

1997) because of the similarity between the concept of an agent and an object.

The selected software should be developed by using object-oriented language, so

the inter-agent communication can be simulated easily.

Agent-based modelling tool kits

There are a number of programming libraries or software packages developed for

agent-based modelling. Several studies (Dugdale, n.d.; Foucart, 2001; Tobias and

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Hofmann, 2004) have reviewed the advantages and disadvantages of these tools and

concluded that Swarm (Swarm Development Group, 2004) and Repast (Repast

Development Team, 2007) seem to be the better tools for social science studies, as the

others were outstanding in some specific situations.

Between these two software packages, Repast is inspired by Swarm. In addition, it

can take few efforts for transferring between Swarm and Repast because of their identical

‘Swarm-like’ programming approach. Despite their similarity, Foucart (2001) and

Dugdale (n.d.) regarded Swarm as the most powerful and flexible tool for agent-based

modelling although it had a very steep learning curve. However, Tobias and Hofmann

(2004) gave Repast a higher ranking than Swarm because Repast had better terms of

license and online FAQ response. In addition, it was easier to install and use Repast,

which also supported sounder high-level functions for programming.

However, these tool kits, including the Swarm-like packages and other libraries

developed for agent-based modelling, have some limitations when they are applied to this

study:

1) Lattice-based agents: Most of the simulation environments in these tool kits are

based on lattice. In such a context, all the agents basically have the same size and

the relative locations to the neighbours are constrained. This is not suitable for a

traffic simulation because, firstly, the sizes of vehicles vary in the mixed traffic

flow; and, secondly, a space-continuous environment, rather a latticed one, is

needed.

2) The size of the simulation environment: Although this study has tested that the

Repast was capable of reaching the dimensions of 1,000 by 1,000, this was not

enough for traffic modelling. Given that the resolution was 20 cm/lattice, the

simulation environment could only accommodate a space of 200 m by 200 m,

which was not sufficient for a road traffic study.

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 Microscopic traffic simulation models

Some of the microscopic traffic simulation models have used the concept of

agent-based modelling. The disadvantages of adapting these software packages for this

research are analysed below:

1) Lane-based environment: Most of the microscopic traffic models are developed

mainly for simulating the double-track vehicles. The feasibility of revising the

lane-based environment to the floating lane-based environment can be a

problematic issue.

2) Learning curve: There is a steep learning curve before being proficient in the

modification of the source code of any developed traffic simulation model.

3) Scope: The scope of this study is to simulate the characteristic movements of

motorcycles in a traffic stream. However, the traffic simulation software is

usually developed for simulating a network. This may lead to difficulties and

complexities when revising the original software.

The tool for this study

Based on the aforementioned analyses, both software packages developed for

agent-based modelling and the ready-made microscopic traffic simulation models seem

to have their limitations and thus are not appropriate for this study. As a result, developing

a tailor-made programme which provides the full flexibility of designing the agent-based

simulation environment is likely to be a better solution for this study.

Finally, the Java language was selected for programming this simulator. Java is an

object-oriented programming language which derives much of its syntax from C and C++.

It was chosen due to the following advantages:

1) Object-oriented programming: Java is an object-oriented programming

language which is suitable for developing an agent-based computer simulation

programme.

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 2) Easy to shift to Swarm or Repast: Swarm and Repast, two powerful and

popular libraries in the area of agent-based modelling, are developed based on

the Java language. Therefore, the code developed in this study can be shifted to

Swarm or Repast easily if necessary.

3) Easy to share the result via the Internet: Java has the characteristic of ‘writing

a programme once, compiling it once, and running it anywhere’. The simulation

results can be presented via the Internet easily.

7.2 The simulator

The simulator for modelling the mixed traffic flow in this study is introduced in this

section. The framework of this simulator adopts the Swarm-like procedure to conduct the

simulation and present the results. This procedure, which is very powerful and flexible for

agent-based modelling, can be largely divided into four parts: agents, the representation,

the user interface and the schedule for activities. These components will be introduced in

turn in the following subsections.

1) Agents: agents including individuals (motorcycles, cars, traffic signals) and

aggregate agents (traffic flow).

2) The environment: the virtual world that creates, runs and displays the agents.

The environment itself is another agent or is constituted by agents.

3) User interface: the objects to receive instructions from users, collect information

from the agents, and output data to files or graphs. The data collectors or

observers can also be regarded as agents.

4) The schedule of activity: the schedule to arrange the time and events for the

agents and the environment.

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7.2.1 The agents

The agents in this simulator consist of motorcycles and passenger cars. The

specifications of these agents are described in this subsection.

7.2.1.1 Motorcycle

This subsection focuses upon describing the settings of a motorcycle’s properties:

Dimensions

The size of the motorcycles in this simulator is set to be 0.75 m by 1.65 m.

Aggressive level

A value to represent the aggressive level of each motorcyclist, n, is sampled from a

uniform distribution, uniform(0, 1), 0 n 1. The larger the value, the more aggressive

behaviour a motorcyclist will exhibit. Other parameters, such as the desired speed, the

lateral speed, the desired braking deceleration and the speculative preceding braking

deceleration, are generated or calculated via this value.

Desired speed

In the example given in Gipps’ (1981) study, the desired speed of vehicles was

sampled from a normal population, normal(20.0, 3.22) m/sec. Unlike the setup of Gipps’

model, the context of this simulator is based on urban networks. The desired speeds of

motorcyclists are given according to the speed limit, which is assumed to be 13.4 m/sec

(30 mph or 48 km/hr). Thus, the desired speed is set to be truncated-normal-1( n; 13.4,

3.22, 11.2, 14.8) m/sec, where truncated-normal-1 is the inverse truncated normal

cumulative distribution function; n is the aggressive level of the motorcyclist n. The

upper bound and the lower bound of this distribution are set to be 14.8 m/sec (33 mph)

and 11.2 m/sec (25 mph) by default. The value of 33 mph is 10% more than the speed

limit to represent the speeding behaviour of motorcyclists.

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 Lateral speed

The calibration results shown in Section 6.1.4.3 reveal that in case of emergency,

motorcyclists would like to adopt a lateral speed drawn from lognormal(0.88, 0.412)

when making a leftwards movement and from lognormal(0.88, 0.472) when making a

leftwards movement. The value of the shape and scale parameters are calculated from the

mean and variance of vw (see Table 6.5 and Table 6.6) by assuming its right-skewed

posterior distribution is lognormally distributed.

Thus, the lateral speed of a motorcycle for calculating the longitudinal force is

obtained from lognormal-1( n; 0.88, 0.412) m/sec when making a leftwards movement

and from lognormal-1( n; 0.88, 0.472) m/sec when making a rightwards movement. The

lognormal-1 here is the inverse normal cumulative distribution function. n is the

aggressive level of the motorcyclist n.

The above lateral speeds represent the lateral speeds that motorcyclists are willing

to use when following closely. However, under the normal situations, motorcyclists do

not need to use the maximum lateral speed. The lateral speed for motorcycle steering is

set to be a gentle value, 0.2 m/sec.

Desired braking deceleration

The desired braking decelerations of vehicles were suggested to be sampled from

normal(-3.4, 0.62) m/sec2 in Gipps’ (1981) application. Here the desired braking

decelerations are estimated by using the longitudinal headway model, drawn from

normal-1(1- n,-4.3, 0.52) (see Table 6.6).

Speculative preceding braking deceleration

In Gipps’ study, the speculative braking deceleration for the leading vehicle was

suggested to be sampled from min{-3.0, normal(-3.2, 0.32)} m/sec2. In this simulator, the

speculative braking deceleration from a motorcyclist is estimated by using the

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longitudinal model, drawn from min{-3.0, normal-1(1- n,-3.8, 0.52)} m/sec2 (see Table

6.6).

Acceleration

The acceleration was suggested to be normal(1.7, 0.32) m/sec2 in Gipps’ study

(1981). The same assumption is used in this study for the motorcyclist.

7.2.1.2 Passenger car

The behaviour of a passenger car in this simulator is comparatively straightforward,

as the only consideration for its movements is the car-following behaviour within its

present lane. The car-following model of Gipps (1981) is adopted here to describe the

interaction between a passenger car and its preceding vehicle. No lane-changing

behaviour is considered for a passenger car.

Dimensions

The widths of the cars are sampled from a normal distribution, normal(1.6, 0.052) m;

the lengths are sampled from normal(4.3, 0.202) m.

Aggressive level, desired speed and acceleration

The generations of car drivers’ aggressive level, desired speed and acceleration rate

are assumed to be the same with those of motorcyclists’.

Desired braking deceleration

The desired braking decelerations of car drivers are estimated by using the

longitudinal headway model, drawn from normal-1(1- n, -4.8, 0.92) (Lee et al., 2007).

Speculative preceding braking deceleration

The speculative braking deceleration from a car driver is estimated by using the

longitudinal model, drawn from min{-3.0, normal-1(1- n, -4.5, 0.52) } (Lee et al., 2007).

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 Lateral position in a lane

The lateral clearance between two vehicles is an important factor for motorcycles’

filtering and swerving behaviour. Therefore, it is not appropriate to locate all the cars in

the same lateral position in the lanes. It is assumed that the lateral position of a car in a

lane is given following the beta distribution, i.e.

wlane/2 + [beta(3, 3) - 0.5] × (wlane - wvehicle )/2,

(7.1)

where wlane and wvehicle are the widths of the lane and the vehicle respectively.

7.2.2 The environment

The spatial structure of the virtual world of this simulator is a one-way link. Such a

link consists of a traffic signal, several lanes and kerbs. The attributes of the traffic signal

include:

1) The signal cycle and the lengths for signal phases

2) The on-off status of the signal

3) The location of the signal

The lane constrains the lateral movements of passenger cars. It also affects the

generation and the lateral position of cars. The attributes of a lane include:

1) Width and length

2) Priority: The attributes such as ‘passenger cars only’ or ‘motorcycles only’ are

assigned to lanes to represent the traffic regulations.

3) Edge: The edges of the lanes are given attributes to indicate the lane discipline.

4) Kerb: The far edge of the outside lane and the near edge of the inside lane are set

to be kerbs, which cannot be crossed by any vehicles.

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7.2.3 The interaction rules

The movements of the vehicles in this simulator are controlled by the interaction

rules, which include the rules for longitudinal following, oblique following, path choice,

gap acceptance and cooperation. These rules are detailed below:

7.2.3.1 The vehicle-following behaviour

The car-following behaviour of a passenger car

A passenger car is assumed to interact only to the preceding vehicle in this simulator

and no lane-changing behaviour is considered. The car-following behaviour of a

passenger car is described by Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981). This model was

developed based on the principle of collision avoidance which assumed that the following

speed was constrained by two conditions: free acceleration and responding to a leading

vehicle. The inequality of free acceleration was obtained from an instrumented car in

moderate traffic (Gipps, 1981), as shown below:

v n (t ) v (t )
v n (t + τ ) ≤ v n (t ) + 2.5 Anτ (1 − ) 0.025 + n , where
Vn Vn
(7.2)

An : the maximum acceleration vehicle n wishes to undertake and

Vn : the desired speed of vehicle n.

In the condition of collision avoidance, Gipps developed the inequality through the

manipulations of Newtonian equations of motion. In this model, additional time headway

of half the reaction time and a safety space margin were added in order to guarantee that

the following vehicle did not collide with the leading vehicle. The formula was given by:

v n −1 (t ) 2
v n (t + τ ) ≤ Bnτ + Bn2τ 2 − Bn [2( x n −1 (t ) − s n−1 − x n (t )) − v n (t )τ − ] , where
Bˆ
(7.3)

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Bn : the desired braking deceleration of vehicle n,

B̂ : the speculative braking deceleration for the preceding vehicle,

sn : the effective length of vehicle n, i.e. the physical length and a safety margin.

Therefore, the speed of the following vehicle was constrained by Equations (7.2)

and (7.3), given by

vn (t ) v (t )
vn (t + τ ) = min{vn (t ) + 2.5 Anτ (1 − ) 0.025 + n ,
Vn Vn
vn−1 (t ) 2
Bnτ + Bn2τ 2 − Bn [2( xn−1 (t ) − sn−1 − xn (t )) − vn (t )τ − ]}
Bˆ
(7.4)

In addition, the position of vehicle n at the next time step was:

v n (t ) + v n (t + τ )
x n (t + τ ) = x n (t ) + ×τ
2
(7.5)

The longitudinal following behaviour of a motorcycle

Gipps following model (Gipps, 1981) is adapted to describe the longitudinal

following behaviour of motorcycles. In order to depict the behaviour of motorcycle, some

revisions such as replacing the kinematic parameters (see Section 7.2.1.1) are made to

this model. In addition, the calibration results of the longitudinal headway model (see

Equations (6.1)) in Section 6.1.4.3 are integrated into the Gipps following model to depict

the following behaviour of motorcycles.

This modification is done by replacing the set-up of the safety margin, so Gipps

following model is able to describe the feature of maintaining a shorter headway when

aligning to the lateral edge of the preceding vehicle. Gipps used the value drawn from a

normal population normal(6.5,0.32) m to represent the effective length of a vehicle sn

(Equation (7.4)). This meant that the safety margin the following vehicle tended to keep,

Dsafe, was normal(6.5- ln-1,0.32) m, where ln−1 was the length of the leading vehicle.

Here Dsafe, is replaced by the minimum following distance of the motorcycle Dmin. The

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effective length of a vehicle sn is specified as:

sn=min{ snlongitudinal , snGipps }

snlongitudinal ~ normal(ln-1 + ∆Dntmin ,0.62)
snGipps ~ normal(6.5,0.32)
(7.6)

where ∆Dntmin is the minimum longitudinal following distance in Equation (6.1). The

value of the standard deviation, 0.6, is adopted from that of ∆D min in Table 6.6.

In addition, the aggressive level of motorcyclist is integrated into the random

variable u'nt (see Equations (6.1)) to denote the inefficiency, the value of which is

calculated by normal-1(1- n; 1.79, 0.452) m when following in the left half behind the

preceding vehicle and by normal-1(1- n; 0.87, 0.392) m when following in the right half.

The oblique following behaviour of a motorcycle

The calibration results of Equation (6.41) in Section 6.2.4.2 are integrated into the

Gipps following model to depict the oblique following behaviour of motorcycles. Similar

to the modelling of the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles, the effective

vehicle length sn is replaced by the longitudinal projection of the minimum oblique

following distance proposed in Equation (6.24). Thus, sn is described as:

sn=min{ snoblique , snGipps }

snoblique ~ normal(ln-1 + ∆Dntoblique ,min cos( nt) - u'nt ,0.32)
snGipps ~ normal(ln-1+(6.5- ln-1) cos( nt) ,0.32)
(7.7)

where u'nt (see Equations (6.1)) is as the inefficiency used in the longitudinal following

model. This variable introduces the aggressive level to the oblique & lateral headway

model.

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 Comparisons of the specifications between this model and the Gipps following

model

The vehicle-following behaviour of the vehicles in this simulator is determined by a

modified Gipps following model. Based on the descriptions in this subsection and

Sections 7.2.1, the comparisons of the specifications between this model and the Gipps

following model are summarised, as shown in Table 7.1. In comparison with the original

model, this modified model has several features:

Table 7.1 Comparisons of the specifications between models

Specification Gipps The modified Gipps following model
following Following Longitudinal following Oblique following
model model for model for motorcycles model for motorcycles
passenger cars
Desired speed Vn Truncated-N-1( n; Truncated-N-1( n ; 13.4, 3.22, Truncated-N-1( n ; 13.4, 3.22,
N(20.0,3.22)
(m/sec) 13.4, 3.22, 11.2, 14.8) 11.2, 14.8) 11.2, 14.8)

Desired braking
N(-3.4,0.62) N-1(1- n; -4.8, 0.92) N-1(1- n; -4.3, 0.52) N-1(1- n; -4.3, 0.52)
Bn (m/sec2)
Speculative
preceding min{-3.0, min{-3.0,
Min{-3.0, N-1(1- n; -3.8, 0.52)} min{-3.0, N-1(1- n ; -3.8, 0.52)}
braking B̂ N(-3.2, 0.32)} N-1(1- n; -4.5, 0.52)}
(m/sec2)
Acceleration An
N(1.7,0.32) N(1.7,0.32) N(1.7,0.32) N(1.7,0.32)
(m/sec2)
Reaction time
0.67 0.75 0.75 0.75
(sec)
Effective vehicle
N(6.5,0.32) m ln + Dsafe See Equation (7.6) see Equation (7.7)
length sn (m)
Vehicle length ln
- N(4.3,0.22) 1.65 m 1.65 m
(m)
Safety margin
- N(2.5,0.32) See Equation (7.6) see Equation (7.7)
Dsafe (m)
Vehicle width w
- N(1.6,0.052) 0.75 m 0.75 m
(m)
Lateral speed vw Log-N-1 ( n ;0.88, 0.412) to left Log-N-1 ( n ;0.88, 0.412) to left
- -
(m/sec) Log-N-1 ( n ;0.88, 0.472) to right Log-N-1 ( n ;0.88, 0.472) to right
Aggressive level
- uniform(0,1) uniform(0,1) uniform(0,1)
n

1) Two-dimensional vehicle-following: this modified model considers the

influences of the lateral positions on the following behaviour. In order to achieve

this purpose, the modified model has more complicated specifications, including

181
 the lengths, the widths and the effective lengths of vehicles (see Table 7.1).

2) Integrate the longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral

headway model into the safety margin of the Gipps following model: The

effective vehicle length sn in Gipps following model consists two parts: the

vehicle length ln and the safety margin Dsafe. The modified models proposes

that the safety margin Dsafe can be replaced by the minimum following

distances Dmin in Equations (6.1) and (6.24), so the longitudinal headway model

and the oblique & lateral headway model developed in this study can be

integrated into the Gipps following model.

3) Introduce the aggressive level: it is assumed that the factors linked to the

aggressive driving behaviour of a driver are highly related. When these

parameters such as acceleration and braking deceleration are sampling

independently, the correlations between them cannot be presented. Thus, in the

modified Gipps model, the aggressive level of a driver is introduced and the

relevant parameters are sampled according to it.

4) Empirical parameters: the parameters used in the modified model are obtained

and calibrated from the empirical data. Gipps following model employed several

parameters, the values of which were assigned arbitrarily, as discussed in Section

3.1.1.2. The modified model in this study should be able to represent the traffic

characteristics more realistically since some of these parameters have been

calibrated.

7.2.3.2 The path choice behaviour of a motorcycle

The longitudinal following, the oblique following and the gap acceptance (see

Section 7.2.3.3) models describe the short-term plans of motorcycles, whereas the path

choice model, Equations (6.55) and (4.22), directs the mid-term manoeuvres of them.

Such mid-term plan might not change at each time step.

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 In this simulator, the mid-term plan is decided by the comparison between the

utilities of the alternatives at the current time step and the choice at the last time step. If a

motorcycle is following the same leading vehicle and the choice at the last time step still

has the largest utility at the current time step, then the choice continues, otherwise,

re-calculate the result of the random utility model according to the surrounding

environment. This process is shown in Figure 7.1.

Start

Let maxVn,t
=max{Vl,n,t, Vc,n,t , Vr,n,t}

Is maxVn,t No
= Choicen,t-1

Yes Update the path choice

decision Choicen,t

Is Vehiclen-1,t No
= Vehiclen-1,t-1

Yes

Choicen,t = Choicen,t-1

t = t+1

Figure 7.1 The decision-making process of the mid-term plan

7.2.3.3 Gap acceptance

Gap acceptance behaviour is a skill for deciding whether the gap is large enough for

making a movement. For example, when a motorcyclist intends to move leftwards, he

will assess the gaps at the left hemisphere before making the movement. The motorcyclist

usually makes the gap acceptance decision according to his experience and perception. In

addition, his aggressive level may also affect his judgment. Hence, the gap acceptance

behaviour can be described by capturing the relationship between the aggressive level of
183
the motorcyclist and his perception of the observed gap.

In Section 6.3.1.2, the interacting force has been introduced to depict the magnitude

of interaction between two vehicles. This variable serves as an index to represent the

motorcyclist’s perception of the observed gap. Since the ranges of the interaction force

and the aggressive level are both between 0 and 1, the gap acceptance behaviour of

motorcyclists can be described by comparing these two variables directly:

1 if ωn ≥ forcent
Ynt = ,
0 if ωn < forcent
(7.8)

where Ynt is the choice indicator variable. Its value is 1 if the gap is accepted and 0

otherwise.

7.2.3.4 Cooperation between vehicles

In mixed traffic, vehicles not just react to the movements of other vehicles passively.

It is more likely to observe that a vehicle tries to change its surroundings actively. When a

vehicle imposes its will on others, a process negotiation and cooperation is involved. In

this study, two types of negotiation and cooperation processes are introduced:

A motorcycle pulls out into a small gap

When a motorcyclist is executing a mid-term plan to make lateral movements, or he

is weaving in and out of the traffic, sometimes he is observed pulling out into a small gap

between two vehicles. This situation usually happens to an aggressive motorcycle and a

less aggressive lag vehicle. When the leg vehicle is forced to cooperate with this

motorcycle, it will anticipate the merging and react gently to the suddenly shortened

safety gap.

A slow moving motorcycle gives way to a fast following car

When a slow moving motorcycle is progressing at the central area of a lane and is

184
blocking the course of a passenger car which wishes to move faster, the passenger car will

ask the motorcycle to give way. The negotiation result is decided by the aggressive levels

between the two vehicles involved and the traffic conditions in surroundings. The

motorcycle will agree to the request if its aggressive level is lower and it is safe to move

aside.

7.2.3.5 The decision-making process of a motorcycle

The framework of a motorcyclist’s decision-making behaviour is shown in Figure

7.2. In this framework, three types of mechanisms are integrated into this

Start

Longitudinal
headway model

Is the longitudinal Yes

gap satisfactory?

No
Is the oblique and
Yes lateral gap for the No
next movement
accepted?
Oblique & lateral
Path
headway model
choice
model Path choice Left or right
Is the oblique and
lateral gap for the Yes
next movement
Straight accepted?
No

Give way to the Yes

No Pull out into a
Cooperation rear vehicle?
small gap?
process
No
Yes

Do not make lateral

movement

Modified Gipps
following model Make a lateral
Adjust speed
movement

Figure 7.2 The decision-making process of motorcyclists

185
decision-making process: a) The longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral

headway model and the modified Gipps following model describe the collision avoidance

behaviour of motorcyclists; b) The path choice model makes mid-term plans for

motorcyclists when the longitudinal headways are not satisfactory; and c) The

cooperation process describes the cooperation between vehicles.

7.2.4 The user interface

This simulator has a graphical user interface which consists of a main window,

several control panels and observing windows, which are described below. The

screenshot of the user interface is shown in Figure 7.3.

Figure 7.3 The screenshot of the agent-based simulation system developed in this study

1) The main window: The main window visualises the spatial structure of this

simulation. The activities and interactions of the agents are displayed on the

monitor and thus their behaviour and emerging phenomena can be observed.
186
 2) Control panels: The control panels are set to adjust the attributes and parameters

of the simulator.

3) Observing windows: There are a number of observing windows with the

function of collecting the information of the agents and displaying the graphs.

The time-space trajectories of vehicles are able to output to a text file. In addition,

the fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow are drawn and updated instantly in

the observing windows.

7.2.5 The schedule of activity

Scheduling is an important element of the agent-based modelling. It organises the

events and activities to happen in a time sequence. The schedule should be arranged by

the researcher according to his simulation scenario.

The simulation results shown in this study (see Sections 7.3 and 7.4) were arranged

by the schedule discussed below:

1) Simulation time: 12,000 sec.

2) Vehicle generation: The vehicles in each lane were generated by the time

headways drawn from a normal distribution, normal(2000/(200+t),0.52) sec. The

mean of this normal distribution decreased along with the simulation time, t,

following a rectangular hyperbola curve. However, when the time headways

drawn form this distribution were shorter than safety time headways, the vehicles

would be generated by safety time headways. Thus, this vehicle generation

mechanism could simulate the traffic which changed gradually from a free flow

to a congested flow. The flow would achieve the maximum flow rate at the

simulation time of around 1,800 sec.

3) Signal control: A traffic signal was scheduled to take effect at the 1,801th sec.

This traffic signal, employed for the purpose of simulating the traffic disturbance

187
 downstream, was installed near the end of the link. It was designed to have three

signal displays with a cycle length of 93 sec. The length of the amber light was

set to be the first 3 sec of the red light. In order to simulate the traffic conditions

from slightly delay to the traffic gridlock, the lengths of the green and red lights

varied with the simulation time. The length the red light (including the amber)

was 0 sec initially, but would increase by 1 sec for every 200 sec. This schedule

ensured that this simulation was able to represent all kinds of flow-speed-density

compositions in the traffic.

4) Information collection: The simulation results were displayed in fundamental

diagrams (see Figure 7.9, Figure 7.11 and Figure 7.12), in which the information

was collected by two time spans. The dots in these diagrams represented the

traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time. The traffic

information collected by every minute could have high variation, so these dots

displayed the scattered patterns of some extremely conditions. In addition, the

curves in these diagrams displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by

every 15 minutes. These curves were used to represent the average and general

performance of the traffic over a period of time.

7.2.6 Summary

This section described the simulator developed based on the agent-based

architecture for simulating the mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles. In this

agent-based framework, the agents carried the properties obtained from the analyses of

the field data and encapsulated certain interaction rules to control their own behaviour.

The behaviour patterns simulated in this section were based on the characteristics

analysed and the models developed in the previous chapters, including the

vehicle-following behaviour, the short-term, mid-term and long-term decision-making

188
behaviour, and the cooperation behaviour. The environment and the schedule of activity

provided the spatial and temporal contexts for these agents. The user interface enabled the

researchers to communicate with the simulator. This framework constructed a solid

structure to simulate the motorcycle behaviour. The verifications and applications of this

simulator will be introduced in the next two sections.

7.3 Verification

The aim of verification is to ensure that the simulator works as intended (Benekohal,

1991). The behaviour patterns of motorcycles and the properties of the traffic flow in this

simulation system are examined to make certain that this system is able to achieve the

objectives of this study. These are elaborated below.

7.3.1 Representation of the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

One of the objectives of this simulator is to represent the characteristic movements

of motorcycles analysed in Section 2.1.3.1. Thus, it is critical to ensure that this simulator

is able to achieve this task. The trajectories of the vehicles produced by this simulator are

employed to examine these behaviour patterns.

Figure 7.4 shows the time-space trajectories extracted from Scenario I in Section

7.4.2. The details of the scenario settings can be found in that section. Figure 7.4a

displays the trajectories of the vehicles of the whole link, while Figure 7.4b shows only

the trajectories of the vehicles in the outer lane. The discontinuous trajectories in Figure

7.4b are caused by the lane-changing of motorcycles.

Amongst those behaviour patterns described in Section 2.1.3.1, the filtering

behaviour is the most distinctive one to present the motorcycle behaviour. Figure 7.4a

illustrates that this simulator is able to represent this behaviour pattern. In addition, it

also shows that when passenger cars are queuing behind the red light, some motorcycles

189
can percolate through the stationary vehicles and move to the head of queues. From

Figure 7.4b, some motorcycles are observed to have extremely small headways. These

observations come from the situations such as travelling alongside another vehicle in

the same lane, tailgating and oblique following. These plots reveal that this simulator

can generally represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles.

(m)

Passenger car trajectory

Motorcycle trajectory

(sec)
Time

(a) Trajectories from Scenario I in Section 7.4.2 (3 lanes)

(m)

Passenger car trajectory

Motorcycle trajectory

(sec)
Time
(b) Trajectories from Scenario I in Section 7.4.2 (the outer lane)

Figure 7.4 Time-space plot of the trajectories in mixed traffic flow

190
7.3.2 The effects of the dynamic virtual lane based models

The time-space trajectories in homogeneous passenger car and motorcycle flows

are plotted in Figure 7.5. The data shown in this plot is extracted from Scenarios V and

VIII in Section 7.4.4, where the details of the scenario settings can be found. Basically,

Figure 7.5a represents the simulation outputs of the Gipps following model as this

simulator adopts the Gipps following model to direct the movements of passenger cars,

whereas Figure 7.5b represents the output of the model developed in this study (see

Table 7.1).

By comparing the three plots in Figure 7.5a, Figure 7.5b and Figure 7.4a, it is

found that the trajectories behind the red light are more chaotic when the flow contains

motorcycles, whereas the trajectories from a lane-based traffic are more orderly and tidy.

The road densities in the flow containing motorcycles are also higher. In addition, shock

waves can be observed in the flows with passenger cars, but are not obvious in the

homogeneous motorcycle flow. The speeds of shock waves shown in Figure 7.5a are

around 25 km/hr, which is a little faster than the speed of 18.34 km/hr obtained from the

empirical survey introduced in Lu and Skabardonis (2007). The reason for obtaining a

higher speed in Figure 7.5a is that it shows the trajectories of a saturated flow in which

the vehicles are generated with short time headways. Thus the accumulation of the

queues is faster.

The comparison between Figure 7.5a and Figure 7.5b shows that a lane-based

model cannot exhibit the chaotic trajectories of a non-lane-based model even though the

road has been divided into several lanes. This implies that the technique of modelling

motorcycle behaviour by dividing the lane into several fixed virtual lanes, for example,

cellular automata, could not be able to represent the behaviour of motorcycles in mixed

traffic realistically. From these comparisons, several points can be drawn:

191
(m)

Passenger car trajectory

Motorcycle trajectory
Passenger car trajectory

(sec)
Time
(a) Trajectories from Scenario V in Section 7.4.4 (3 lanes)

(m)

Motorcycle trajectory

(sec)
Time
(b) Trajectories from Scenario VIII in Section 7.4.4 (3 lanes)

Figure 7.5 Time-space plot of the trajectories in homogeneous traffic flow

1) This simulator is able to represent the traffic flow properly. The time-space plots

show that this system is able to display the queues, the queue discharge and

shock waves of the lane-based traffic flow.

2) The system is able to present more chaotic trajectories when the characteristic

behaviour patterns of motorcycles integrated in the simulator take effect.

192
 3) The models and framework proposed in this study are able to represent the

characteristics of a non-lane-based traffic flow.

7.3.3 The cooperation between vehicles

One of the strengths of the agent-based modelling framework is its ability to handle

the cooperation behaviour of agents. The behaviour of a motorcyclist’s weaving in and

out of traffic or merging into a small gap is an example that this simulator is able to deal

with. The trajectories in Figure 7.6 show that a motorcycle is moving laterally and leaving

the lag vehicle a small gap to deal with. This passenger car cooperates with this

aggressive merging behaviour by adjusting to this small gap gently and waiting for the

gap extending to a normal following distance. If this simulator does not have such a

cooperation mechanism, the passenger car will react to the short gap by applying severe

brakes and produce unreasonable vehicular trajectories. With this cooperation process,

the weaving behaviour of an aggressive motorcyclist can be represented.

Passenger car
Motorcycle
(m)
t=0 sec t=2 sec t=4 sec t=6 sec t=8 sec t=10 sec t=12 sec t=14 sec t=16 sec t=18 sec

(m)
Longitudinal position

Figure 7.6 The communication and cooperation behaviour of vehicles

7.3.4 Headway distribution

The headway distribution generated from the simulator is examined to check that

this system is able to reproduce the similar traffic environment to the survey site. The

survey site is a link with congested traffic behind a traffic signal. Two similar traffic

conditions from the simulation environment are selected. Figure 7.7a presents the

condition that motorcycles are behind the stop line at the beginning of the red light (see

193
area I in Figure 7.7c). Figure 7.7b shows the discharge of a short queue (see area II in

Figure 7.7c).

Lognormal curve Lognormal curve

(m) (m)

(a) The frequency distribution of the (b) The frequency distribution of the
motorcycles’ longitudinal headway in area I motorcycles’ longitudinal headway in area II

(m)

Investigation
area
I

II

Time (sec)

(c) Indication of the investigation areas

Figure 7.7 The frequency distributions of the longitudinal headways

The longitudinal headway distributions of motorcycles under both conditions

follow the lognormal distribution (p=0.209 and 0.063 respectively, K-S test, two-tailed).

The means of the headways are 11.4 m and 15.2 m; the modes of these two lognormal

distribution curves are 7.38 m and 7.62 m, respectively. These values look reasonable and

are close to the statistics measured from the field data (see Sections 6.1.2.2 and 6.1.2.3).

This shows that this simulator is able to represent properties of the traffic flow in the

survey site.

7.3.5 The fundamental diagrams of the traffic flow

The built-in observers of this simulator have the functions of collecting information

194
about the traffic stream and then convert the information into macroscopic traffic

parameters. The fundamental diagrams generated from the simulator present the relations

between traffic flow, traffic density and speed correctly (see Figure 7.9, Figure 7.11,

Figure 7.12 and Figure 7.13). The dots and curves in these plots show reasonable

scattered patterns and proper values. For example, the maximum flow rate for a

homogeneous car flow from the simulation results is around 2,100 veh/hour/lane (see

Figure 7.13), which is slightly higher than the saturated flow rates found in other studies

(for example, Turner and Harahap, 1993; Cannell and Gardner, 1996; Hossain, 2001).

However, as the maximum flow rate shown here does not include the start and end lost

time effects in a signalised intersection, a slightly higher figure is reasonable. In addition,

the maximum speed from the simulation results is around 50 km/hr, which is the desired

speed set for the agents in this simulator. All this shows that this simulator works well to

integrate the individual information into the aggregate information.

7.4 The applications

This simulation model can be applied to a number of areas. In this section, three

applications of this simulator are presented. Section 7.4.1 describes the scenario settings

of these applications. In Sections 7.4.2 and 7.4.3, the effects of the installations of the

designated motorcycle lane and the motorcycle reservoir are evaluated respectively. In

Section 7.4.4, the Passenger Car Unit (PCU) values of motorcycles are estimated.

7.4.1 The scenario settings

In order to evaluate the above tasks, eight scenarios were created. Table 7.2

summarises the basic settings of these scenarios. Scenarios I and II were used to analyse

the influences of installing a motorcycle lane. Scenarios I to IV were employed to

evaluate the effects of the motorcycle reservoir behind the traffic signal. Scenario I and

195
Scenarios V to VIII were used to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles under different

traffic compositions. Further details of the scenario specifications will be provided in

each subsection.

Table 7.2 Specifications of the scenarios

Scenario Proportion of Motorcycle Motorcycle Lane widths from off-side
motorcycles reservoir (depth) Lane to near-side (m)
Scenario I 25% No No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6
Scenario II 25% No Yes 2.9, 2.9, 2.9 and 1.3
Scenario III 25% Yes (5m) No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6
Scenario IV 25% Yes (5m) Yes 2.9, 2.9, 2.9 and 1.3
Scenario V 0% No No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6
Scenario VI 50% No No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6
Scenario VII 75% No No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6
Scenario VIII 100% No No 3.2, 3.2 and 3.6

7.4.2 The effects of the installation of a motorcycle lane

Motorcycle lane refers to a special lane which gives priority to small vehicles such

as motorcycles and bicycles. The installation of motorcycle lanes is common in some

Asian countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia. Recently, the UK government also started

to evaluate the possibility of allowing motorcycles for using the bus lanes (DfT, 2005a).

The installation of motorcycle lanes is believed to be able to reduce the heterogeneity of

the traffic and improve the road safety. However, besides the safety issues, the influences

of motorcycles lanes on the road capacity is an important topic to be studied.

Scenarios I and II were used to assess the effects of the installation of a motorcycle

lane. In Scenario I, a one-way link which was 300 m long and 10 m wide was established

in the simulator. This link consisted of three lanes. The widths of these lanes from the fast

lane to the slow lane were 3.2 m, 3.2 m and 3.6 m. In order to simulate the congested flow,

a traffic signal was added near the end of the link (Figure 7.8a).

In Scenario II, an alternative layout plan was applied to the simulation model. Each

lane in the original layout was diminished to 2.9 m in width to give a space of 1.3 m in

196
width for the designated motorcycle lane (Figure 7.8b). Therefore, in the new layout only

the widths of the lanes were altered. The number of lanes for cars and the width of the

road remained the same.

Signal

3.6 m
3.2 m

3.2 m
290 m 10 m
(a) Scenario I- without a motorcycle lane

Signal

1.3 m Motorcycle only

2.9 m
2.9 m
2.9 m
290 m 10 m
(b) Scenario II- with a motorcycle lane

Figure 7.8 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for motorcycle lanes

The events and activities in both scenarios were scheduled as described in Section

7.2.5. After simulating the mixed traffic flow under both scenarios, the fundamental

diagrams were generated for analysing the impacts of the motorcycle lane. The

diagrams of both scenarios are plotted in Figure 7.9. The dots in these diagrams

represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time,

whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15

minutes. Several points are concluded from the outputs of this simulation:

1) The maximum flow rate and the critical traffic density increase. In this case,

by installing a motorcycle lane, the maximum flow rate increases by around 20%

because of the additional capacity of the motorcycle lane. The flow rate also

increases under the circumstances of congested flow.

2) The space mean speeds increase. Given the same traffic density in congested

conditions, the space mean speed of the flow is higher when the motorcycle lane

is installed.

197
 The simulation results imply that when the proportion of motorcycles is high, the

installation of a motorcycle lane is necessary. It is an efficient and economic way to

reduce the heterogeneity of the mixed traffic and increase the road capacity.

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km) (veh/km)

(a) Scenario I- without a motorcycle lane

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km) (veh/km)

(b) Scenario II- with a motorcycle lane

Scenario I- without a
motorcycle lane
(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr) Scenario II- with a
100 100 motorcycle lane

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km) (veh/km)

(c) Comparison between two scenarios

Figure 7.9 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without the
installation of a motorcycle lane

198
7.4.3 The effects of the installation of an advanced stop line

The advanced stop line refers to an additional stop line for double-track vehicles

situated a few metres back from the primary stop line. These two stop lines constitute a

reservoir area for waiting single-track vehicles to occupy. In some European countries

such as the UK and the Netherlands, advanced stop lines are introduced to reduce conflict

between cyclists and motorists at signalised junctions (Cycling England, 2007). In Asian

countries such as Taiwan, motorcycles are allowed to access the reservoir areas and enjoy

a short start-up time to pass the intersection. It is believed that the motorcycle reservoir at

the front of a queue can increase the capacity of the road, as May and Montgomery (1986)

have reported that the motorcycles leaving the intersection with the first 6 sec of the green

time will not affect the capacity of the intersection. Recently the UK government started

to evaluate the possibility of allowing motorcycles into advance stop lines (DfT, 2005a).

This simulator is able to assess this issue from the viewpoint of traffic flow control.

Scenarios I to IV were employed to assess the effects of the motorcycle reservoir.

The specification details of Scenarios I and II have been described in Section 7.4.2. The

settings of Scenarios III and IV were identical to Scenarios I and II respectively, except

the advanced stop lines, as shown in Figure 7.10. The depth of the motorcycle reservoirs

were 5 metres.

After simulating these scenarios according to the schedule described in Section

7.2.5, the fundamental diagrams were employed to analyse the impacts of the

motorcycle reservoir. The diagrams of Scenarios I and II are plotted in Figure 7.9 and

those of Scenarios III and IV are shown in Figure 7.11. The dots in these diagrams

represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the simulation time,

whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected by every 15

minutes.

199
 Signal

3.6 m
3.2 m

3.2 m 285 m 5 m 10 m
(a) Scenario III- with a motorcycle reservoir but without a motorcycle lane

Signal

1.3 m Motorcycle only

2.9 m
2.9 m
2.9 m 285 m 5 m 10 m
(b) Scenario IV- with a motorcycle lane and a motorcycle reservoir

Figure 7.10 The schematic diagrams of the simulation scenarios for advanced stop lines

The advanced stop line does not influence the flow as the traffic signal does not take

effect. However, it starts to influence the flow when the signal works. From the

simulation results, several points are concluded from the outputs of this simulation:

1) The advanced stop lines increase the flow rate in congested situations. The

motorcycle reservoirs allow the vehicles to reorganise their locations during the

red periods, so the mixed traffic become less heterogeneous. Under the

conditions of the same flow speeds (speed-flow diagram in Figure 7.11c), the

flow rate increase after the installation of the advanced stop lines. This is caused

by the more organised traffic and the phenomenon that motorcycles leaving the

intersection with the first 6 sec of the green time would have a PCU equivalent of

0 (May and Montgomery, 1986).

2) The advanced stop lines decrease the density of the flow in congested

situations. The motorcycle reservoirs take up some road spaces. Under the

conditions of the same flow speeds (speed-density diagram in Figure 7.11c), the

flow densities drop after the installation of the advanced stop lines due to the fact

that the motorcycle reservoirs sometimes cannot be used efficiently.

200
(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km) (veh/km)

(a) Scenario III- with a motorcycle reservoir but without a motorcycle lane

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km) (veh/km)

(b) Scenario IV- with a motorcycle reservoir and a motorcycle lane

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr) Scenario I Scenario II

100 100 Scenario III Scenario IV

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km)

(c) Comparison between the scenarios

Figure 7.11 The comparison of the fundamental diagrams between with and without the

motorcycle reservoir

3) The advanced stop line does not affect the flow-density pattern significantly.

As shown in the flow-density diagram of Figure 7.11c, the flow-density patterns,

both for the situations of with and without a motorcycle lane, do not show

significant differences after the advanced stop lines have installed. Given the

same flow rate, the installation of advanced stop lines actually changes only the
201
 scatterd patterns of motorcycles during the red periods, but do not change the

flow density.

7.4.4 The PCU values of motorcycles

In Section 2.2, it has been discussed that motorcycles can exploit the road space

which is usually unusable for passenger cars. As the number of motorcycles increases, the

road space can be used more efficiently and thoroughly. From this viewpoint, the

presence of motorcycles can add the capacity of a road. Thus, the PCU (Passenger Car

Unit) equivalent of motorcycles is likely to decrease as their number on roads increases.

In addition, when the movements of passenger cars are constrained due to high traffic

density, motorcycles are still able to progress by filtering. Hence, the PCU equivalent of

motorcycles would be lower when the traffic congestion is severer. Based on the above

discussions, it is hypothesised that the PCU equivalents of motorcycles vary with

different vehicle compositions and traffic speeds. This simulator was employed to

investigate these hypotheses and to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles.

Scenarios I and V to VIII were employed to estimate the PCU values of motorcycles

under different traffic compositions. The settings of Scenarios V to VIII were identical to

Scenarios I, except the proportions of motorcycles generated. Motorcycles accounted for

25% of the traffic flow in Scenario I, and 0%, 50%, 75% and 100% in Scenarios V to VIII

respectively. The simulation results are represented by using the speed-flow and

flow-density fundamental diagrams, as shown in Figure 7.12 and Figure 7.13. The dots in

these diagrams represented the traffic conditions collected by every 1 minute of the

simulation time, whereas the curves displayed the trends of the traffic variables collected

by every 15 minutes.

202
(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

15,000
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 (veh/hr) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km)

(a) Scenario VIII- 100% motorcycle flow

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

15,000
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 (veh/hr) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km)

(b) Scenario VII- 75% motorcycle flow

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

15,000
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 (veh/hr) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km)

(c) Scenario VI- 50% motorcycle flow

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

15,000
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 (veh/hr) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km)

(d) Scenario I- 25% motorcycle flow

(km/hr) (km/hr) (veh/hr)

15,000
100 100

10,000

50 50
5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 (veh/hr) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km) 200 400 600 800 (veh/km)

(e) Scenario V- 100% passenger car flow

Figure 7.12 The fundamental diagrams under different traffic compositions

203
(km/hr) (veh/hr)
Scenario VIII: 100% motorcycle flow
100 Scenario VII: 75% motorcycle flow
10,000
Scenario VI: 50% motorcycle flow
Scenario I: 25% motorcycle flow
Scenario V: 100% passenger car flow

50 5,000

5,000 10,000 200 400 600

(veh/hr) (veh/km)

Figure 7.13 The comparison of flow-density relations under different traffic compositions

. . )* * *
(veh/hr) 1 2; 1
1 2: 1
1 29 1
- )* * *
1 28 1
1 27 1
, )* * * 1 26 1
1 25 1
Critical density
Critical density 1 24 1
+ )* * * Speed=10 km /hr
Speed=10 km /hr
Speed=20 km /hr
Speed=20 km /hr 1 231
Speed=30 km /hr Speed=30 km /hr
Speed=40 km /hr 1 21 1 Speed=40 km /hr
( )* * * 47< 71< 97< 311<
*/ 0+/ +*/ ,+/ .**/
Proportion of motorcycles Proportion of motorcycles

(a) Flow rates of the traffic (b) PCU values of motorcycles

Figure 7.14 The flow rates and PCU values from the simulation results

The PCU equivalents were estimated by using the Webster’s method (Kimber et al.,

1985), in which variation of the saturated flow rates caused by the presence of

motorcycles were calculated so the impact of motorcycles on the capacity of the flow

could be estimated. In this study, the PCU values under the maximum critical density and

different space mean speeds (see Figure 7.14) were obtained. From the simulation results,

several points are concluded and discussed:

1) The presence of motorcycles enlarges the capacity of the road. From the

density-flow relations, it is found that the maximum flow rate increases

204
 following the raise of the proportion of motorcycles (Figure 7.14a). This effect is

generally attributed to motorcycles’ characteristic behaviour patterns, which

facilitate motorcycles to make most use of the road space. This result also shows

that motorcycles have advantages over other transport modes in congested urban

networks.

2) The PCU values of motorcycles vary with the congestion level. From Figure

7.14b, it is found that motorcycles have advantages in congested urban networks.

Their PCU values are higher when the congestion is severer. When the flow

speed is 10 km/hr, the PCU values are around 0.4. However, when the speed of

the flow is lager than 20 km/hr as the PCU values are above 0.5.

3) The PCU values for motorcycles are higher than 0.5 in free flow or minor

congested flow. Usually the figure of motorcycles’ PCU used in transport

management is 0.5, but the PCU values obtained from this simulation are higher

in free flow or minir congested flow. This implies that after considering the

safety margins, a motorcycle would take up more than half the road space a car

needs in free flow, particularly under the conditions that the effects of filtering

and other characteristic behaviour are not significant.

4) It is not clear whether the proportion of motorcycles affect their PCU values.

The values of the PCU for motorcycles vary with their advantages over

passenger cars, i.e. filtering ability, etc. Such advantages do not increase along

with the rising of the proportion of motorcycles. However, high proportion of

motorcycles increases their chance of sharing the roadspace, which is also also

affected by the vehicle scattered patterns from upstream. The settings of these

simulation scenarios cannot represent the effects of these factors.

5) The vehicle generation methods could affect the PCU values estimated. In

order to control the proportion of motorcycles, the vehicles were generated

205
 randomly by the ratios of passenger cars to motorcycles in each lane. Such a

lane-based vehicle generation method is not realistic, i.e. the scattered pattern of

motorcycles cannot reflect their advantage of sharing the road spaces. This

vehicle generation setup could cause higher PCUs for motorcycles.

It is worthwhile to point out that the installation of a motorcycle lane would affect

the PCUs of motorcycles significantly. However, as motorcycles can progress through

traffic congestion by using the motorcycle lane, the proportion of motorcycles in

simulation system is not fixed, so this issue cannot be accommodated within the

framework of this analysis. In addition, the traffic in the motorcycle lane is a

homogeneous flow, which should be analysed independently from the mixed traffic flow.

Another point should be noted is that from the above analyses, it seems that when

simulating a mixed traffic flow, the proportion of motorcycles is more likely to be a

dependent variable, rather than a fixed variable. This would be useful information for

further studies on this topic.

7.5 Summary

This chapter presented an agent-based traffic simulator which was built based on

the mathematical models developed in the previous chapters. Through the verification

process, this simulation system demonstrated that it was able to work as intended and

represent the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. In addition, the three

applications presented at the end of this chapter offered useful information for traffic

engineers. All this shows that this simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a

powerful tool for conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

206
8 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further
Work

This chapter begins by summarising the research according to the objectives

mentioned in Chapter 1. Then the fields for further research are discussed in the second

part.

8.1 Summary of research

In Chapter 1, the objectives of this study have been stated. These objectives are then

successfully addressed in Chapters 2 to 7. In this section, the objectives are restated and

the relevant findings are summarised.

Characterise motorcycle behaviour patterns

1) Nine behaviour patterns describing the unique movements of motorcycles

were characterised by summarising the findings from literature and the

observations of this study. Some of these behaviour patterns have never been

pointed out by other studies. These behaviour patterns should not be neglected

when developing models to describe the mixed traffic flow since they affected

the mixed traffic flow significantly.

2) The differences between motorcycles and passenger cars were analyses. It

was believed that the characteristic behaviour of motorcycle originated from

these differences. Therefore, a systematic analysis was conducted from the

physical, psychological and mechanical viewpoints. This comprehensive

analysis integrated the information from the literature and prepared the ground

for the subsequent motorcycle behaviour research.

3) Extracted the key elements of motorcycle behaviour: According to the

assumption of complexity theory, the simple rules can result in complex

207
 behaviour. Therefore, it was suggested that the motorcycle behaviour could be

described by modelling some key elements. After analysing the behaviour

patterns of motorcycles, these key elements were recognised and extracted.

Three models were then proposed to describe these basic elements, namely the

longitudinal headway model, the oblique & lateral headway model and the path

choice model. These analyses laid the base for the development of the

agent-based model. It has been proven in Chapter 7 that by capturing these

fundamental elements, a simulation model could represent the characteristic

properties of mixed traffic containing motorcycles.

Identified the gaps and weaknesses in current microscopic treatments for

simulating motorcycles in traffic flow

4) The limitation of the lane-based models: The conventional car-following and

lane-changing models are developed based on the assumption of lane-based flow.

These lane-based models cannot describe the characteristic behaviour patterns of

motorcycles properly because they do not consider the interactions between the

lateral positions and the longitudinal movements. In addition, the lateral position

of the motorcycle is more likely to be a continuous variable rather than a discrete

variable. For the same reason, the cellular automata model is not suitable for

describing mixed traffic containing motorcycles.

5) The availability of the data: It is found that a lack of proper field data has

constrained the study of motorcycle behaviour. To obtain a data set of

motorcycles’ two-dimensional trajectories is crucial for a microscopic

investigation because the lateral movements within a lane cannot be neglected.

Therefore, to obtain trajectory data for motorcycles is the key to the success of

the studies on this topic. In order to tackle this issue, a data collection system

capable of providing the data for motorcycle studies was then developed, as

208
 described in Chapter 5.

6) Dealing with the effects of the lateral position: It is found that the techniques to

describe the lateral movements of motorcycles are just at the preliminary stage.

The modelling of the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles is

complicated because it has to consider the effects of the lateral position. In

addition, the dynamic virtual lane-based nature of motorcycles is a significant

characteristic which will affect their lateral movements. To tackle the interaction

between the lateral positions and the longitudinal movements is the major

limitation of the conventional models for vehicular movements. This is the main

challenge in the modelling of motorcycle behaviour.

Developed models to describe the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

Based on the analyses in Chapter 2, three models were developed to describe

motorcycle movements. The features and the calibrations of these models are

summarised as following:

7) The longitudinal headway model focused on describing the phenomenon that a

motorcycle will maintain a shorter headway when aligning to the edge of the

preceding vehicle. This behaviour pattern was an important characteristic of

motorcycles’ movements. It affected the longitudinal following behaviour, the

overtaking behaviour and the swerving behaviour significantly. By capturing this

feature, the behaviour of motorcycle could be described more accurately.

8) The oblique & lateral headway model described the headway distribution

pattern of motorcycles when they were following the preceding vehicles

obliquely (or laterally). The headway was modelled in a two-dimensional

manner to depict the interaction between the longitudinal movements and lateral

movements of motorcycles.

9) The path choice behaviour was modelled by using a multinomial logit model.

209
 The path referred to the dynamic virtual lane which was defined by the vehicles

around the subject motorcycle. The concept of dynamic virtual lane-based

movement was the most important factor to characterise the difference to the

lane-based models.

10) Filling the gaps: These models successfully dealt with the critical limitations

found in the literature, for example, to describe the interaction between the

longitudinal following distance and the lateral position, and the dynamic virtual

lane-based movements.

11) The data for calibrating the above three models were collected by using the

video recording methods. A computer programme was developed to extract the

vehicular trajectories from the video footage. This data extracting system was

capable of producing highly accurate data. By controlling the errors caused by

perspective and occlusion in images carefully, the database generated from this

system was able to achieve higher accuracy than other data sets surveyed by

similar methods. The database built could generate a wide variety of traffic

parameters. It has been proven in Chapter 6 that this database was able to

support the motorcycle movement study and provided the information

objectively and flexibly.

12) The calibrations: The longitudinal headway model and the oblique & lateral

headway model were calibrated by using the Bayesian analysis. The main

reason for employing the Bayesian approach was that the error terms of the

longitudinal and oblique (or lateral) headways were not normally distributed.

The Bayesian approach is a powerful tool for dealing with the non-normally

distributed error terms. The calibration results showed that the longitudinal

headway model and the oblique & lateral headway model fitted the field data

well. The multinomial logit modelling was employed to describe the path choice

210
 behaviour of motorcycles. After the model refinement process, it was found that

factors that affected the path choice behaviour were the speed of the vehicle

ahead or at the oblique front, the size of the preceding vehicle, the widths of the

virtual lanes, the interacting forces at the oblique rear, and the choice of the last

time step.

Developed a traffic simulation system capable of representing the motorcycle

behaviour

13) An agent-based traffic simulator was built to represent the motorcycle

behaviour in mixed traffic flow. This simulator was developed by using the Java

language, which was a powerful tool for developing an agent-based computer

simulation programme. The mathematical models developed for describing the

motorcycle behaviour were applied to this computer programme. This

simulation system was able to work as intended and represent the characteristic

behaviour patterns of motorcycles.

14) Three applications of this simulator were presented to show that this

simulator was able to carry out policy tests and was a powerful tool for

conducting a study on mixed traffic flow containing motorcycles.

8.2 Recommendations for further work

This research demonstrates the capability of an agent-based approach to model the

motorcycle behaviour in mixed traffic flow. However, a number of directions for further

research are found:

Factors contributing to the characteristic behaviour of motorcycles

In Chapter 2, the essential differences between motorcycles and passenger cars have

been analysed. Some strong and intuitive assumptions were also made to link these

211
differences to the characteristic behaviour patterns of motorcycles. However, little

research has been conducted to support these assumptions. It is worthwhile to investigate

a number of issues on this topic. For example, how the manoeuvring system and the field

of view affect the reaction time of a motorcyclist; how the field of view affects the safety

margin that a motorcyclist maintains; how the size and the weight of a motorcycle affect

the accelerating and decelerating behaviour of its rider, etc. These issues are highly

relevant to the field of motorcycling safety studies, but have been neglected.

Data collection

The data obtained from video footage contain systematic errors related to

perspective. The factors such as the pixel resolution, manual operation and the height of

objects will cause errors which correlate with the longitudinal distance. This leads to

non-constant standard deviation of errors. This study has tried to describe such systematic

errors in the model by using Bayesian analysis, which is a flexible approach to dealing

with non-constant error variances. However, the model proposed did not depict the

systematic errors successfully. It would be worthwhile to further investigate how this type

of error affects the accuracy of the data and take measures to remove or allow for these

errors. Further, extracting data from video footage is an extremely labour-intensive

process. Improvements on the data extracting techniques would facilitate the studies of

motorcycle movements.

Modelling

The proposed models could be improved from the following aspects:

1) The lateral speed in the longitudinal headway model was supposed to be a

constant (Equation (4.5)). However, this variable could vary with the vehicle

speed, the turning angle and the braking deceleration.

2) The calibration results of the oblique & lateral headway model showed that the

212
 locus of the modes would be a straight line (Figure 6.7 and Section 6.2.4.3).

However, this locus could be a curve in the real world.

3) This study assumed that the longitudinal following behaviour and the oblique

following behaviour were working independently. There was no interaction

between the two models. Therefore, when a motorcycle moved from one regime

to the other, its interaction to the preceding vehicle did not change smoothly and

continuously. How the motorcyclists react when they are shifting between the

regimes of longitudinal following and oblique following should be further

investigated.

4) How the car drivers react to the presence of motorcycles should be studied and

modelled. In addition, the lane-changing movements of passenger cars should be

added into this simulator. Also, other vehicle types to this model should be

introduced into this model.

5) This study integrated the headway models into the Gipps following model to

describe the vehicle-following behaviour of motorcycles. It would also be

possible to integrate these headway models into a psychophysical model and

make a comparison between these two procedures.

Verification and validation

There are currently no measures to verify and validate the model describing

motorcycle movements at the microscopic scale. The two-dimensional trajectories of

motorcycles cause the major difficulty of this task. A little change of the lateral position

will affect the longitudinal headway significantly. Therefore, the interaction between the

longitudinal movement and the lateral movement makes it difficult to verify and validate

the model at the microscopic level. In order to ensure that the simulation system works as

intended, a systematic approach to verify and validate the model for describing

motorcycle behaviour should be developed.

213
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