Overview of the four-step

transport demand model

Dr Ian Espada
Team Leader Network Operations

Ph: +61 3 9881 1685

ian.espada@arrb.com.au

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Content
What is it?
Scope and limitations?

Analysis of strategies
Future socio-economic
framework
Population
Economy

Present transport
network

Present urban form

Urban development strategy

Transport strategies

Future transport
network

Future urban form

Transport demand
model
Performance
indicators
Accessibility
Travel time and cost
Environmental and social impacts
Safety
5

Port of Hai Phong & Cai Lan

35,000

all cargo (000 MT)

25,000

3,000

2,500

20,000

2,000

15,000

1,500
All cargo

10,000

1,000
Containerized cargo

5,000

500

1995

containerized cargo (000 TEU)

30,000

3,500
All (recorded)
All (High)
All (Mid)
All (Low)
Container (recorded)
Container (High)
Container (Mid)
Container (Low)

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Projected Port Traffic at Hai

Phong and Cai Lan
NRCTSS (ALMEC 2007)

What is a Transport Model?

Equations representing the choice made by
individuals when they travel
Transport models have two defining features
Form: assumptions of behaviour and policy sensitive
Parameters: calibrated from data
e.g. Y = + X

Model form and calibrated parameters are assumed

to be valid in the future

Menu of modelling techniques

Analytical

Macro-model

Simulation

Micro-model

Macrosimulation

Microsimulation

TRANSYT,
SATURN, etc.

Q-PARAMICS,
AIMSUN, VISSIM, etc.

Average delay

Approach flow

EMME, CUBE,
VISUM,
ARRBTraffic, etc.

SIDRA, Austroads
GTM, etc.

Trip purposes
Origin base
Home-based
Non-home based

Commonly used classification of trip purpose

Go home
Work
School
Shopping & recreation
Others
9

Demand modeling approaches

Shop

Home

Work

Lunch

Activity-based

Tour-based models
Home

Work

Lunch

Shop

Home

Trip-based (FSM)
Home

Work

Lunch

Work

Home

Shop

Work

Lunch

Work

Home

Shop

Home

10

Structure of a FSM
Future socio-economic framework

Generation/attraction

Distribution

Mode choice

Route choice

11

Trip generation/attraction

12

Trip distribution

Source: MMUTIS, JICA 1999

13

Mode split

Stopher and Meyburg (1975)

14

Route choice

Multiple trip purposes FSM for one

period
Work

Shop

G/A

G/A

G/A

OD

OD

OD

Split

Split

Split

Etc.

Car OD

Transit OD

Highway
assignment

Transit
assignment

16

Trip End and Trip Interchange

Trip-end model

Generation/attraction by mode

Trip-interchange model

Generation/attraction

Distribution
Distribution
Mode choice

Route choice

Route choice

17

Study periods
All day model (24-h or 16-h model)
Peak hour model
Multi-period model
Departure time choice
Time dependent network assignment

18

Perth ROM & STEM

ROM 1146 zones
0

10

20 Kilometers

STEM 472 zones

10

20 Kilometers

19

Link-Node Network

20

Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity

http://www.transport.vic.gov.au/vista#Survey
21

Limitations of a FSM
No feedback with transportation plans
Socio-economic framework does not change with
transport plans

Performance on predicting freight transport is still

poor
Intra-zonal trips are not satisfactorily modelled with
implications to walking and cycling
Trip chaining is not properly modelled

22

Predict-and-provide?

Do-nothing network (2020)

Proposed network (2020)

Regional highway network in Northern Vietnam (HAIDEP, ALMEC, 2007)

23

Reality check
27 rail projects
208 road projects

27 rail
projects

Deliberately
slanted forecast

Stated causes of inaccuracies

183 road
projects

Source: Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl, 2006, Inaccuracy in traffic

forecasts, Transport Reviews, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp 1-24.
24

Tolled roads forecast

Forecast daily

Actual

traffic in first year

in 2010

Mar 2010

94 706

28 061

Lane Cove Tunnel, Sydney

Mar 2007

100 000

63 530

Cross City Tunnel, Sydney

Aug 2005

70 000

35 000

Westlink M7, Sydney

Dec 2005

174 000

126 935

EastLink, Melbourne

Jun 2008

234 000

150 738

PPP project

Opening date

Clem7, Brisbane

25

Thank you for your participation

today.
For further information on the topic, please
contact:
Ian Espada
+61 3 9881 1685
ian.espada@arrb.com.au
www.arrb.com.au