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Volume 5, Issue I
Daily Exclusive
ORYZA Rice
Newsletter
Brazil rice stocks have declined sharply to around 135,717 tons in February 2015, down about
44% from around 240,544 tons in January 2015 and down about 77% from around 582,298 tons
in February 2014, according to the country's national grain supplying agency Conab.
India average wholesale rice prices, which increased in January 2015 and declined in February
2015 due to increased supplies and declining export demand, have again increased in March
2015 due expected lower production from ongoing Rabi secondary rice crop (November - May),
according to official sources. Planting for the current Rabi crop is lagging by about 412,000
hectares, or about 9.5% from the same time last year.Average monthly wholesale rice prices in
India declined to around Rs.2,746.16 per quintal in March 2015, up about 1.2% from around
Rs.2,714 per quintal in February 2015, and down about 2.7% from their year-ago levels of
around Rs.2,821 per quintal.
In terms of USD per ton, wholesale rice prices in India stand at around $444 per ton (using
current exchange rates) in March 2015, up about 1.4% from around $438 per ton (using
historical exchange rates) in February 2015, and down about 5.5% from around $470 per ton
(using historical exchange rates) in March 2014. The government of India, in its second
advance estimates for major crops, has estimated India's rice production for 2014-15 marketing
year (October 2014 - September 2015) at around 103.04 million tons, down about 3% from an
estimated 106.65 million tons in 2013-14, according to a statement from the Agriculture
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The government of Sri Lanka has decided to revive the small and medium scale rice mills, which
were closed down few years back, through a concessionary loan scheme, according to a news
release on the official news portal of Sri Lanka.The government has introduced the
concessionary loan scheme from March 27, according to the news release. The Food Security
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Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery are currently seen 1.5 cents per cwt (about $0.33 per
ton) lower at $10.975 per cwt (about $242 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The
other grains are seen trading higher: soybeans are currently seen about 0.8% higher, wheat is
listed about 3% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.4% higher.U.S. stocks rebounded on
Monday, encouraged by talks of stimulus in Asia, as investors eyed the week's economic data.
European stocks climbed amid encouraging euro zone economic reports. China's benchmark
Shanghai Composite index hit a fresh seven-year high as markets interpreted weekend comments
from Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People Bank's of China, as indication of further stimulus.
The Rice Policy Committee in Thailand has approved a budget of about 582 million baht (around
$18 million) to subsidize interest costs of millers, Bloomberg quoted the Permanent Secretary for
Commerce as saying.The military government is encouraging millers to store rice during the
harvest season in order to curb price falls due to increased supplies by providing low interest
The U.S. cash market was slightly firmer today however most buyers and sellers were on the
sidelines today waiting to see the results of the USDA projected acreage report due out tomorrow
morning.Analysts note that overwhelming consensus in the industry is that the USDA will show
a decrease in next years acreage however guesses range from a 2% reduction to as much as
10%.
Thailand's Pathum Thani Rice Research Center has developed a new rice variety - called Thani
200 or Kor. Khor.57 - that can withstand colder climates as well as resistant to pests, according
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The Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA) expects low export demand for Thai rice to
continue in the 2015 second quarter as well due to a tougher competition, according to local
sources. The TREA President told local sources last week that the association is expecting
Thailand to export around 750,000 - 800,000 tons of rice in March 2015 as many of its
traditional importers are shifting to India and Pakistan due to lower prices. He also noted that
increasing supplies from Vietnam's winter-spring crop are likely to further bring down the export
prices of Vietnamese rice consequently putting a pressure on the volume of Thai rice exports. He
added that most of the rice importers are holding on their purchase decisions in expectation of
price falls.
The Association President also noted that most of the African countries, which are traditional
buyers of Thai rice have been facing sluggish economies due to oil price declines. As most of
these nations trade in euro, depreciation of euro against dollar has been forcing them to place
orders for a short period. These developments may affect Thailands plans to export 11 million
tons of rice this year, say local sources.
Thai rice exporters have also urged the government to postpone the third rice auction to avoid a
further downward pressure on rice prices. The Thai government sold about 1.18 million tons of
rice from five auctions raising around 17.21 billion baht (around $528 million) since it seized
power in May 2014. The government received bids for around 780,000 tons of around one
million tons auctioned on March 6, 2014. It approved sale of 700,000 tons at about $367.45 per
ton raising about 8.37 billion baht ($257.22 million), Reuters quoted the Director General of the
Foreign Trade Department as saying.
The Thai government is currently holding over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is
planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice this year and around 7 million tons next year.
Thailand recently won a tender to supply 200,000 tons of rice to the Philippines and has signed a
deal to export 2 million tons of rice to China this year.
Domestic prices of Thai 5% rice fell below 11,600 baht (around $363) per ton compared to
around 12,300 baht (around $379) per ton last month, according to local sources. Export prices
of Thai 5% rice currently stands at around $390 per ton compared to export prices of India 5%
rice, Pakistan 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice at around $380 per ton, $355 per ton and $368 per
ton respectively.Separately, the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) is likely to consider an
impeachment motion this week against the former Commerce Minister, former Deputy
Commerce Minister and former Department of International Trade Chief for alleged corruption
in rice scheme.
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Vietnam exported about 719,171 tons of rice in January 1 - March 26, 2015, down about 41%
from about 1.22 million tons of rice exported in in first three months of 2014, according to data
from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at
about $426 per ton (FOB), down about 1.6% per ton from same time last year.
During March 1-26, 2015, Vietnam exported about 294,449 tons of rice, down about 50% from
about 583,294 tons rice exported in full month of March 2014, and up about 47% from about
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Chicago rough rice futures for May delivery settled 13 cents per cwt (about $3 per ton) higher at
$11.120 per cwt (about $245 per ton). Rough rice futures retraced losses sustained on Friday
after dipping just below Fridays low as the market charted an outside day. Overall the market
has been trapped in a sideways back-and-forth trading pattern over the last five trading sessions
as traders made last minute adjustments to their positions ahead of tomorrows planting
intentions report.
Technically todays action is seen as a positive development as prices managed to close back
above the psychologically significant $11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton) level. However
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Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5
per ton each to around $365 - $375 per ton and $310 - $320 per ton respectively today. Pakistan
rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken , 25% broken rice and 100% broken rice by
about $15 per ton, $10 per ton and $5 per ton to around $350 - $360 per ton, $320 - $330 per ton
and $280 - $290 per ton, respectively, today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly
unchanged today.
5% Broken Rice
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Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $365 - $375 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. India
5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%
rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton, down about $15 per ton from Friday.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium on
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $340- $350 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around
$340 - $350, about a $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $320 - $330
per ton, down about $10 per ton from Friday.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is
indicated at around $370 - $380 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice
shown at around $385 - $395 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton
premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, up about $5 per
ton from Friday. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $5
per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, down
about $5 per ton from Friday.
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