Turkey - Economic performance in 2014 and outlook 2015/2016

by Eduardo Petazze
Last update: June 11, 2015
Gross domestic product increased by 2.3% YoY in the first quarter of 2015
For the biennium 2015/2016 estimate a modest growth of around 2.5% annually, from our previous estimate at around 4.2% / 5.2% annually.
In 2014 the Turkish economy grew by 2.9% of GDP, compared with 4.2% growth in 2013, affected by a fall in investment and low growth in private consumption.
For the biennium 2015/2016 the low performance of Turkey's GDP, is associated with low growth in investment and external demand, evidenced in 1Q2015 a recovery in
private consumption.

Annual Data
Turkey GDP At constant (1998) prices, NSA
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electr.
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Information and communication
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
GVA
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-Subsidies
GDP
Private consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Stocks
Exports
Imports
Turkey GDP YoY
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electr.
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Information and communication
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
GVA
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-Subsidies
GDP
Private consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Exports
Imports
Latest data
Own estimate

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
9,998,745 10,604,053 10,935,277 11,315,315 11,095,102 11,136,585 11,085,749
795,179
826,026
832,457
804,188
849,283
830,455
830,539
25,355,340 27,890,450 28,370,054 29,426,602 30,510,023 31,127,454 31,854,928
2,316,368
2,514,967
2,597,279
2,645,123
2,771,572
2,858,662
2,955,431
5,996,258
6,688,257
6,726,224
7,221,013
7,378,907
7,326,938
7,323,432
13,371,117 14,867,312 14,866,979 15,630,581 15,848,794 16,080,807 16,306,786
12,941,489 14,285,282 14,572,533 15,138,361 15,537,872 15,819,552 16,130,763
1,958,749
2,149,068
2,213,482
2,416,308
2,484,543
2,569,009
2,651,653
2,566,369
2,802,619
3,041,544
3,125,888
3,231,504
3,436,771
3,617,174
12,521,036 13,722,619 14,155,055 15,548,906 16,632,983 17,713,647 18,726,528
5,358,242
5,473,019
5,579,332
5,671,681
5,820,343
6,012,820
6,193,821
2,359,582
2,579,821
2,749,286
2,930,802
3,246,832
3,655,864
4,028,068
1,842,687
2,025,142
2,106,471
2,216,241
2,338,344
2,475,389
2,604,026
3,213,346
3,338,781
3,455,713
3,604,324
3,702,944
3,756,405
3,820,426
2,060,700
2,165,334
2,258,422
2,361,048
2,520,178
2,680,202
2,841,154
1,272,831
1,339,881
1,410,644
1,484,994
1,569,284
1,646,673
1,724,820
209,367
214,046
214,364
219,861
234,990
243,883
253,524
995,589
1,023,665
1,039,206
1,063,290
1,086,116
1,096,836
1,110,899
167,832
180,966
190,900
201,888
207,369
211,983
217,567
105,300,829 114,691,307 117,315,223 123,026,413 127,066,984 130,679,937 134,277,287
8,323,627
9,359,556
9,675,179 10,879,822 11,676,375 12,636,241 13,471,269
8,908,442
9,842,973
9,984,977 10,409,870 10,679,180 11,172,424 11,582,561
105,885,644 115,174,724 117,625,021 122,556,461 126,069,789 129,216,120 132,388,579
73,174,350 78,796,580 78,425,017 82,446,468 83,546,407 86,240,345 88,420,267
11,325,193 11,854,890 12,583,586 13,401,764 14,020,867 14,474,531 14,955,984
25,270,576 29,826,287 29,021,682 30,290,581 29,886,630 29,890,363 29,790,404
281,357
21,150
-1,698,793
136,769
87,595
413,676
724,117
25,500,932 27,509,654 31,997,795 31,930,533 34,110,743 34,787,927 35,857,639
29,666,764 32,833,837 32,704,266 35,649,655 35,582,453 36,590,722 37,359,833
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2.36%
6.05%
3.12%
3.48%
-1.95%
0.37%
-0.46%
4.74%
3.88%
0.78%
-3.40%
5.61%
-2.22%
0.01%
13.83%
10.00%
1.72%
3.72%
3.68%
2.02%
2.34%
7.12%
8.57%
3.27%
1.84%
4.78%
3.14%
3.39%
18.33%
11.54%
0.57%
7.36%
2.19%
-0.70%
-0.05%
13.63%
11.19%
-0.00%
5.14%
1.40%
1.46%
1.41%
11.02%
10.38%
2.01%
3.88%
2.64%
1.81%
1.97%
0.31%
9.72%
3.00%
9.16%
2.82%
3.40%
3.22%
4.68%
9.21%
8.53%
2.77%
3.38%
6.35%
5.25%
6.81%
9.60%
3.15%
9.85%
6.97%
6.50%
5.72%
2.09%
2.14%
1.94%
1.66%
2.62%
3.31%
3.01%
7.61%
9.33%
6.57%
6.60%
10.78%
12.60%
10.18%
9.26%
9.90%
4.02%
5.21%
5.51%
5.86%
5.20%
0.49%
3.90%
3.50%
4.30%
2.74%
1.44%
1.70%
0.60%
5.08%
4.30%
4.54%
6.74%
6.35%
6.01%
1.16%
5.27%
5.28%
5.27%
5.68%
4.93%
4.75%
0.96%
2.23%
0.15%
2.56%
6.88%
3.78%
3.95%
2.36%
2.82%
1.52%
2.32%
2.15%
0.99%
1.28%
5.44%
7.83%
5.49%
5.76%
2.71%
2.22%
2.63%
9.06%
8.92%
2.29%
4.87%
3.28%
2.84%
2.75%
12.04%
12.45%
3.37%
12.45%
7.32%
8.22%
6.61%
13.06%
10.49%
1.44%
4.26%
2.59%
4.62%
3.67%
9.16%
8.77%
2.13%
4.19%
2.87%
2.50%
2.46%
6.67%
7.68%
-0.47%
5.13%
1.33%
3.22%
2.53%
1.98%
4.68%
6.15%
6.50%
4.62%
3.24%
3.33%
30.54%
18.03%
-2.70%
4.37%
-1.33%
0.01%
-0.33%
3.41%
7.88%
16.31%
-0.21%
6.83%
1.99%
3.07%
20.70%
10.68%
-0.39%
9.01%
-0.19%
2.83%
2.10%

Quarterly Data
Last Press Release
Turkey GDP At constant (1998) prices, NSA
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electr...etc. Water supply, etc.
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Information and communication
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
GVA
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-Subsidies
GDP
Private consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Stocks
Exports
Imports
Turkey GDP YoY
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electr.
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Information and communication
Accomodation and food service activities
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertaintment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of household as employers
GVA
Financial intermediation services indirectly measured
Taxes-Subsidies
GDP
Private consumption
Public consumption
GFCF
Exports
Imports
Latest data
Own estimate

2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
1,352,849 2,211,668 4,768,965 2,761,621 1,389,793 2,220,822 4,773,218 2,752,752
174,462
221,287
255,476
198,059
160,347
217,290
254,639
198,179
7,618,516 7,912,345 7,335,575 7,643,586 7,682,700 8,084,520 7,528,882 7,831,351
570,547
673,243
724,132
803,650
586,549
696,163
748,160
827,790
1,762,365 1,872,419 1,906,769 1,837,354 1,700,579 1,870,773 1,913,544 1,842,042
3,840,754 4,056,456 3,950,329 4,001,256 3,881,003 4,122,392 4,016,527 4,060,884
3,662,487 3,960,504 4,027,025 3,887,856 3,704,269 4,038,490 4,109,463 3,967,329
426,097
469,056 1,041,845
547,544
446,371
491,735 1,063,885
567,018
777,894
813,205
756,195
884,210
849,108
860,740
799,560
927,363
4,008,893 3,709,491 4,207,762 4,706,837 4,276,672 3,982,912 4,483,950 4,970,112
1,437,661 1,428,514 1,443,855 1,510,312 1,496,021 1,474,490 1,488,419 1,553,890
930,642
733,551
639,127
943,511 1,061,078
827,236
730,826 1,036,724
625,138
559,843
514,307
639,056
664,094
592,948
546,996
671,351
909,909
876,110
939,582
977,343
913,245
891,791
957,181
994,188
674,665
629,100
580,066
636,347
717,094
668,142
619,470
675,496
428,045
381,843
390,678
368,719
447,361
401,141
410,232
387,939
67,416
54,887
52,457
60,229
68,951
57,186
54,987
62,759
282,728
258,310
266,418
278,660
282,881
261,500
270,160
282,296
64,423
41,145
42,796
59,006
64,930
42,496
44,232
60,325
29,615,492 30,862,976 33,843,361 32,745,156 30,393,046 31,802,769 34,814,333 33,669,789
2,781,521 2,597,403 2,913,786 3,383,664 3,049,011 2,834,667 3,147,155 3,605,407
2,578,786 2,641,847 2,715,850 2,742,697 2,745,378 2,759,148 2,823,314 2,844,585
29,412,757 30,907,420 33,645,425 32,104,188 30,089,413 31,727,250 34,490,492 32,908,967
20,085,117 19,896,096 21,879,791 21,685,402 20,982,194 20,550,464 22,475,815 22,231,872
3,133,778 3,279,847 3,308,923 4,298,320 3,211,182 3,401,411 3,437,367 4,424,572
7,004,757 7,552,815 7,403,461 7,925,597 7,007,218 7,568,774 7,405,208 7,909,163
-331,527
593,873
747,249
-922,001
-266,340
691,447
835,617
-847,048
7,880,286 8,568,741 8,999,872 8,661,844 7,857,974 8,756,280 9,248,398 8,925,275
8,359,654 8,983,952 8,693,872 9,544,975 8,702,815 9,241,126 8,911,913 9,734,868
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
3.48%
-2.61%
-4.90%
1.45%
2.73%
0.41%
0.09%
-0.32%
7.68%
8.62%
4.17%
2.51%
-8.09%
-1.81%
-0.33%
0.06%
6.33%
2.99%
2.69%
2.79%
0.84%
2.18%
2.64%
2.46%
5.05%
5.71%
7.44%
1.59%
2.80%
3.40%
3.32%
3.00%
5.78%
3.40%
2.04%
-2.03%
-3.51%
-0.09%
0.36%
0.26%
3.16%
0.19%
0.83%
1.53%
1.05%
1.63%
1.68%
1.49%
3.29%
2.83%
3.11%
1.37%
1.14%
1.97%
2.05%
2.04%
1.67%
2.80%
4.01%
1.53%
4.76%
4.83%
2.12%
3.56%
-1.53%
5.50%
2.78%
6.62%
9.15%
5.85%
5.73%
4.88%
13.97%
7.11%
5.25%
2.99%
6.68%
7.37%
6.56%
5.59%
2.12%
2.13%
2.44%
3.76%
4.06%
3.22%
3.09%
2.89%
11.71%
9.72%
10.84%
10.67%
14.02%
12.77%
14.35%
9.88%
7.13%
5.17%
4.74%
4.87%
6.23%
5.91%
6.36%
5.05%
4.22%
3.57%
1.86%
1.50%
0.37%
1.79%
1.87%
1.72%
5.66%
6.30%
6.53%
8.56%
6.29%
6.21%
6.79%
6.15%
5.09%
6.99%
6.32%
4.36%
4.51%
5.05%
5.01%
5.21%
12.40%
7.41%
5.56%
1.94%
2.28%
4.19%
4.82%
4.20%
3.26%
1.60%
2.19%
1.50%
0.05%
1.24%
1.40%
1.30%
1.45%
-1.83%
5.88%
5.25%
0.79%
3.28%
3.35%
2.24%
5.85%
3.09%
2.04%
2.51%
2.63%
3.05%
2.87%
2.82%
16.74%
10.34%
2.57%
2.46%
9.62%
9.13%
8.01%
6.55%
5.20%
0.78%
1.38%
3.18%
6.46%
4.44%
3.96%
3.71%
4.87%
2.33%
1.94%
2.57%
2.30%
2.65%
2.51%
2.51%
2.57%
0.36%
0.12%
2.36%
4.47%
3.29%
2.72%
2.52%
9.23%
2.46%
6.60%
1.67%
2.47%
3.71%
3.88%
2.94%
-0.30%
-3.48%
-0.40%
-1.01%
0.04%
0.21%
0.02%
-0.21%
11.11%
5.50%
7.90%
3.43%
-0.28%
2.19%
2.76%
3.04%
0.67%
-4.25%
-1.59%
4.57%
4.10%
2.86%
2.51%
1.99%