Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 1 of 17

Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Index (1/2)

Notes ..........................................................................................................................................3

Shell (1/4) ...................................................................................................................................4

Link: Bottle Bills hurt small businesses .......................................................................................... 4
A. The Bottle Bill requires stores to accept and store bottles turned in at their individual location. Empirical
example. Business Review 09 ...................................................................................................................................4
B. Bottle Bills hurt small business, “stagnating business or worse, continuing the recessive spiral.” Tom
Potter 09 ....................................................................................................................................................................4
Internal Link 1: Small Businesses are Key to the Economy........................................................... 5
Legislation only goes so fast & far – small businesses are our economy’s engine and we need to support
them, or at the very least stop hurting them. Bill O'Boyle 10 ................................................................................5
Internal Link 2: Economic downturn would trigger a double-dip recession ................................ 6
A. Definition of a Double-Dip Recession. Investopedia 10....................................................................................6
B. The recession of 2007-09 is over. Donald Luskin 10 .........................................................................................6
C. Since we had one recession, and the economy has begun to recover, that means that a second recession
would be a “double-dip recession” that would be worse than the first – the second recession that results
from a Double-Dip Recession is a “worst-case scenario”; it would be deeper and longer than the first.
Investopedia 10 .........................................................................................................................................................6
Impact: Economic downturn goes global........................................................................................ 7
US Economic downturn causes Global economic downturn, which sparks 3rd world unrest and conflict.
Michael Brush 01 ......................................................................................................................................................7

Link XTs (1/2) ............................................................................................................................8

A. Having stores process bottles would be a “logistical nightmare” that would “collapse the system.” Chris
Lehman 07 .................................................................................................................................................................8
B. A Bottle Bill would hurt businesses AND consumers, even going so far as to make certain beverages cost
twice as much as before. Empirical example. Delen Goldberg 09 ........................................................................8
C. Empirical examples: the Connecticut Bottle Bill saddled stores with heavy financial losses. Stan Sorkin 099
D. New taxes, regulations and mandates (like the Bottle Bill) are part of a “sure-fire recipe for a double-dip
recession, or worse.” Ian Swanson 10 ....................................................................................................................9

Internal Link 1 XTs...................................................................................................................10

Small businesses have empirically lead us out of recessions. Janet Morrissey 09............................................ 10
70% of all new jobs created are by small businesses. Rep. Vern Buchanan 09 ................................................ 10

Internal Link 2 XTs...................................................................................................................11

High commodity prices, like those that could result from a Bottle Bill, could send us into a double-dip
recession. Edward Harrison 09 ............................................................................................................................ 11

Impact XTs ...............................................................................................................................12

Empirically, US recessions cause similar recessions around the globe (laundry list of countries and their
responses to a recession). Nouriel Roubini 09..................................................................................................... 12
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 2 of 17

Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Index (2/2)

UQ – Double-Dip Recession Not Likely (1/2) ..........................................................................13

A double-dip is unlikely - unless the government steps in (like with a Bottle Bill). Henry Blodget 10 ............ 13
The likelihood of a double-dip is “very low.” Mickey Levy 10........................................................................... 13
Despite slow economic growth, a double-dip recession is unlikely. Summit Business Media 09 .................... 13
The economy will grow into 2011; a double-dip recession is not likely. Bob Baur 09 ..................................... 14

AT: Stores Won’t Have to Take Back Bottles ...........................................................................15

A. If recycling increases like Aff wants it to, recyclers won’t be able to handle the flood of empty bottles.
Jennifer Ginsberg 06.............................................................................................................................................. 15
B. There aren’t enough recycling locations for stores to designate as their “redemption center.” River
Cities' Reader 02 .................................................................................................................................................... 15

UQ – Economy Improving Now ...............................................................................................17

The Recession ended months ago. Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein 09 ............................................................ 17
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 3 of 17

Notes

1. I put the shells together to be as airtight as possible – the Bottle Bill shell, for example, might take up
to 4 minutes, so plan accordingly.

2. Essentially what you’re arguing is that the Bottle Bill hurts small businesses to such a degree as to
make improvement impossible (Tom Potter 09), and small businesses are key to economic recovery, and
blahblahblah you get the idea.

3. Some might argue that we’re already in the second recession now – you should be able to shoot that
down pretty easily (Donald Luskin 10), and even respond with “that means that the plan would cause a
triple-dip recession which is even worse (Investopedia 10).”

4. You can take out the Bottle Bill link and add in your own; then you get a double-dip recession DA
from…what have you! Nuclear Loan Guarantees, whatever.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 4 of 17

Shell (1/4)
Link: Bottle Bills hurt small businesses

A. The Bottle Bill requires stores to accept and store bottles turned in at their individual location.
Empirical example. Business Review 09
The Business Review (Albany), "Judge issues injunction against bottle bill", May 29, 2009,
http://albany.bizjournals.com/albany/stories/2009/06/01/story4.html (HEG)

In the state budget, approved last month, legislators expanded the bottle bill to apply to unsweetened
water. That means grocery and convenience stores would have to accept and store more empty bottles.

B. Bottle Bills hurt small business, “stagnating business or worse, continuing the recessive spiral.”
Tom Potter 09
Tom Potter [president of Onondaga Beverage Corp. in Liverpool], "A Costly Law: New bottle bill will hurt consumers, small businesses", © 2010 Syracuse
Online LLC., April 21, 2009, http://blog.syracuse.com/opinion/2009/04/a_costly_law_new_bottle_bill_w.html (HEG)

The recently passed budget expands bottle deposits and our associated costs. This will impose a significant tax
on consumers who enjoy soda, beer or bottled water. Additionally, this budget will dramatically limit the expansion
and reinvestment into the local community by small businesses. The state budget has expanded the containers that
distributors are responsible for collecting. Many of you may not be aware of the history of this law. When initially passed, the state imposed a fee on the
distributors of 48 cents per case (a handling fee paid to retailers and redemption centers). The distributors receive no reimbursement for this fee, nor for the
added cost of processing these containers. This new budget increases this fee to 84 cents a case (a 75 percent increase) and seizes 80 percent of the
unredeemed deposits. The deposit law is costly and time-consuming in our system. The unredeemed deposits
offset only a fraction of our costs of manpower, trucks, fuel, maintenance and insurance. There is no
question that in order to stay healthy, our small business will have to increase prices. As a result, the
consumer will be paying more for all beverages you purchase (essentially being taxed). Onondaga Beverage
Corp. has continually invested in this community and has a very stable work force because we offer solid wages and benefits. The budget
provisions will in no way assist or encourage small businesses to expand; it will stagnate business or
worse, continuing the recessive spiral that has resulted in the migration of so many people and businesses out of New York.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 5 of 17

Shell (2/4)
Internal Link 1: Small Businesses are Key to the Economy

Legislation only goes so fast & far – small businesses are our economy’s engine and we need to
support them, or at the very least stop hurting them. Bill O'Boyle 10
Bill O'Boyle [staff write for The Times Leader], "Small businesses key, Sestak says", © Copyright 2010 The Times Leader, January 29, 2010,
http://www.timesleader.com/news/Small_businesses_key__Sestak_says_01-29-2010.html (HEG)

WILKES-BARRE – U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak wants to help small businesses – the group that he says holds the key
to real job growth in Pennsylvania and across the country. Sestak, who is challenging incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter
in the May primary, visited the Wilkes University Small Business Development Center on South Main Street to
discuss his Comprehensive Small Business Job Creation Package. Sestak discussed several key
components that he said were left out of recent employment legislation. Sestak, 58, of Delaware County, also discussed
his recently proposed Small Business Recovery Act. “The bill targets urgently needed assistance at small businesses – the
engine of our economy – and addresses key job-creating measures that I have long-advocated,” Sestak said.
“Unfortunately, the House-passed ‘jobs bill,’ while including many important provisions, inadequately addressed small business job creation.” Sestak said to
return the employment rate to healthy levels, almost 11 million jobs need to be created by the end of 2011. “It can be done, but it is going to take a
“Particularly here in Pennsylvania we must recognize that more than 98
committed and concerted effort,” Sestak said.
percent of employers are small businesses, which are responsible for more than 70 percent of all jobs.”
The Small Business Recovery Act would deal with several issues, like providing a 15 percent jobs tax credit for small businesses that hire new workers and a
10 percent credit in 2011. He also advocates raising lending limits from $3 million to $5 million on the SBA’s programs and increasing the interest rate cap
on SBA loans from the current rate of 6 percent to 7 percent to attract lenders. Sestak noted over the past decade small businesses created as many as 80
percent of all new jobs. He said during the last period of economic expansion, firms with fewer than 20 employees, which account for only a quarter of
“If we are serious about restoring the job market – and we must be –
overall employment, created 40 percent of new jobs.
we have to get serious about supporting small and start-up businesses,” Sestak said.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 6 of 17

Shell (3/4)
Internal Link 2: Economic downturn would trigger a double-dip recession

A. Definition of a Double-Dip Recession. Investopedia 10

"Double Dip Recession", Copyright © 2010 Investopedia ULC [one of the Internet's largest sites devoted entirely to investing education], 2010,
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublediprecession.asp (HEG)

What Does Double Dip Recession Mean? When gross domestic product (GDP) growth slides back to
negative after a quarter or two of positive growth. A double-dip recession refers to a recession followed
by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession.

B. The recession of 2007-09 is over. Donald Luskin 10

Donald Luskin [Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics LLC, a consulting firm providing investment strategy and macroeconomics forecasting and
research for institutional investors], "The Economy's Improving, but Stocks Might Not", © 1995 - 2010 SmartMoney, Jan 8, 2010,
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/stocks/the-economy-is-improving-but-stocks-might-not/?page=all (HEG)

A year ago, earnings season was bank disaster season. Nothing mattered except how many tens of billions of dollars the major
banks would announce they were writing off for bad subprime investments. Quarter after quarter, the write-offs accumulated. Each one depleted bank
capital, until after four or five quarters of it there just wasn't any capital left. The banks found themselves in the same position that their customers are
usually in: You can only qualify for a loan if you don't need one. So it was with capital for the banks. They couldn't raise any, because they needed it so
Then the Treasury announced it
desperately. It all changed in early March, when Citibank announced it was in the midst of a great quarter.
would backstop banks' capital requirements if they couldn't raise what they needed in regular markets.
And bingo -- suddenly the banks could raise money again, and they did. That restored confidence. Ever
since then the banks, by and large, have been reporting real earnings again -- not losses driven by write-offs. More of the same is expected for this coming
earnings season. There's so much optimism about banks, consensus earnings estimates are being upgraded now at nearly a 57.8% annual rate for the sector.
That's not the only group analysts are optimistic about. On average, across the Standard & Poor’s 500 index,
consensus earnings are currently being upgraded at a 41.4% annual rate. There's not a single sector
where forecasted earnings are falling. Bringing up the rear is the telecom sector, where estimates are
being upgraded at about a 6.5% annual rate. Time was, a number like that -- now the weakest of all the sectors -- would have been
considered pretty strong. In the lead is the materials sector -- the one that includes metals, chemicals, paper, fertilizer and so on. Earnings there are being
upgraded at a mind-blowing 126.8% annual rate. And that's on top of a 77% earnings rebound for the sector since the trough in earnings in May, 2009. With
earnings estimates being upgraded this aggressively, no wonder stocks have staged the strongest rally since 1935 -- from the March 2009 bottom, up 68.8%
in 304 days. That's history being made right before our eyes. There's just no question about it. The recession is over. We are
in a real, live recovery. As strong as earnings upgrades look, and as strong as the stock market has been, so far it hasn't translated into very
spectacular growth in the overall economy, or in the jobs market. They're just beginning to pick themselves off the floor.

C. Since we had one recession, and the economy has begun to recover, that means that a second
recession would be a “double-dip recession” that would be worse than the first – the second
recession that results from a Double-Dip Recession is a “worst-case scenario”; it would be deeper
and longer than the first. Investopedia 10
"Double Dip Recession", Copyright © 2010 Investopedia ULC [one of the Internet's largest sites devoted entirely to investing education], 2010,
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublediprecession.asp (HEG)

Investopedia explains Double Dip Recession The causes for a double-dip recession vary but often include a
slowdown in the demand for goods and services because of layoffs and spending cutbacks from the previous downturn. A double-dip (or even
triple-dip) is a worst-case scenario. Fear that the economy will move back into a deeper and longer
recession makes recovery even more difficult.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 7 of 17

Shell (4/4)
Impact: Economic downturn goes global

US Economic downturn causes Global economic downturn, which sparks 3rd world unrest and
conflict. Michael Brush 01
Michael Brush [financial writer for NY Times, Money magazine, CNBC on MSN Money, and the Economist Group; winner of the “Best in Business” award
from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers in 2003; studied at Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot Fellowship program], "7
war scenarios every investor must consider", November 2, 2001, http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2001/011102-attack03.htm (HEG)
But Johnson and others see this as an unlikely outcome. The reasoning goes like this. Many governments throughout the world know they would risk getting
thrown out of power if their economies turned down -- or if they lost access to capital -- because of a U.S. depression sparked by global conflict. "An
extended American recession, leading to a global recession, will spawn widespread unrest and, perhaps,
several regime changes," says Mark Melcher, a political analyst at Lehman Brothers. "Don't think for a
second that the leaders of developing nations, who often hold a rather tenuous grip on power, aren't well
aware of this relationship."
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 8 of 17

Link XTs (1/2)

A. Having stores process bottles would be a “logistical nightmare” that would “collapse the
system.” Chris Lehman 07
Chris Lehman [graduated from Temple University with a journalism degree in 1997], "Grocers Say Bottle Bill Update Should be Canned", KUOW Puget
Sound Public Radio [a private, non–profit corporation], University of Washington, Copyright 2007 N3 News, May 18, 2007,
http://www.kuow.org/program.php?id=12802 (HEG)

WHEN IT COMES TO SENATE BILL 707, JOE GILLIAM SOUNDS LIKE A DOOMSDAY
PROPHET. HE SAYS THE PROPOSED CHANGES TO OREGON'S BOTTLE BILL WOULD BE
CATASTROPHIC: GILLIAM: "707 is a dog that doesn't hunt. It will collapse the system. And we're just
not going to stand by and allow that to happen." GILLIAM IS HEAD OF THE NORTHWEST
GROCERY ASSOCIATION, WHICH HAS LOBBIED HEAVILY AGAINST CHANGING THE
BOTTLE BILL. HE SAYS BY ADDING WATER BOTTLES, STORES WILL BE INUNDATED
WITH LITERALLY TONS OF ADDITIONAL CONTAINERS. GROCERS AREN'T OPPOSED TO IDEA OF MORE
RECYCLING. THEY JUST DON'T WANT TO BE IN CHARGE OF IT. PROCESSING MILLIONS OF CONTAINERS
EACH YEAR IS A LOGISTICAL NIGHTMARE. AND THEN THERE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO TRY TO BEAT THE
SYSTEM:

B. A Bottle Bill would hurt businesses AND consumers, even going so far as to make certain
beverages cost twice as much as before. Empirical example. Delen Goldberg 09
Delen Goldberg [Reporter at The Post-Standard, Master's Degree in Journalism, Syracuse U], "Making sense of the Bigger (yes) Better (?) Bottle Bill", The
Post-Standard, © 2007 - 2009 Container Recycling Institute [nonprofit organization dedicated to reducing beverage container waste through producer and
consumer responsibility], April 27, 2009, http://www.bottlebill.org/news/articles/2009/NY-4-27-MakingSenseOfTheBigger.htm (HEG)

Higher cost for consumers: New Yorkers will likely see the price of their favorite beverage jump as
distributors struggle to cover their increasing costs. Some types of drinks could become hard to find. At the very least, residents
will have to return their water bottles instead of putting them out at the curb, or they'll be out 5 cents a pop. "Maybe we won't sell certain products in New
"It's not going to serve the citizens of New York
York, or we'll shift that production into other areas (of the country)," Anaya said.
at all. It's going hurt the business climate and make the product more expensive. A case of water might
get twice as expensive."
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 9 of 17

Link XTs (2/2)

C. Empirical examples: the Connecticut Bottle Bill saddled stores with heavy financial losses. Stan
Sorkin 09
Stan Sorkin [president of the Connecticut Food Association, which represents food stores], "Food Stores Take Brunt Of Expanded Bottle Bill" (opinion),
Published in the Hartford Courant, May 12, 2009, http://www.bottlebill.org/news/articles/2009/CT-5-12-FoodStoresTakeBrunt-op.htm (HEG)

Connecticut food stores, cognizant of the state's environmental and fiscal concerns, recognized the need to expand the bottle
return law to include water this year. The expanded bottle law passed by the General Assembly,
however, did not recognize the financial burdens placed on the supermarket industry. When Connecticut first
passed bottle bill into law in 1978, supermarkets received — by law — 1.5 cents for every empty beer bottle or can and 2 cents for each soda container that
was returned to them. These handling fees were built into the law to help supermarkets offset the costs of collecting redeemable bottles and bundling them
off to recycling centers. It is now 31 years later. In that time the cost of gasoline has more than doubled, the minimum wage has nearly tripled and the
general cost of living has skyrocketed in Connecticut and neighboring states. Financially, we are in a very different place than we were in 1978. But through
it all, supermarkets in Connecticut still only receive 1.5 cents for every beer and 2 cents for every soda container returned to the store. They will receive just
2 cents for every water bottle redeemed under the expanded bottle law. This despite the many burdens that expanding the bottle law places
on the stores — loss of selling space, increased cost of machine leases, labor and supplies — not to
mention the state-mandated task of collecting all redeemable bottles and cans. This is an unfair burden
placed on Connecticut's supermarkets and it needs to be changed before the legislature finishes its work in June. The time has come to
adequately compensate supermarkets for the mandated recycling function they perform. Saddling stores with the same old handling fees — despite a
dramatically increasing volume of returnable bottles and cans — causes Connecticut grocery stores to lose millions of dollars
each year. For every container of beer, soda or water sold and brought back to a store for redemption, supermarkets lose between 2 and 4 cents.
Considering that supermarkets are the primary redeemers of bottles and cans, this places them at a tremendous cost disadvantage against other beverage
If nothing is done to increase these handling
retailers — convenience stores, drugstores and gas stations — which typically do not take back bottles.
fees, supermarkets' financial survival could hinge on some very unattractive alternatives — adjustments in
labor forces, job cuts and increased food pricesacross the board. Given the difficult economic times we
are all experiencing, this is the last thing wanted by anyone in Connecticut.

D. New taxes, regulations and mandates (like the Bottle Bill) are part of a “sure-fire recipe for a
double-dip recession, or worse.” Ian Swanson 10
Ian Swanson [News Editor for The Hill], "U.S. Chamber warns of 'double-dip' recession because of Dem policies", The Hill, © 2010 Capitol Hill Publishing
Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc., January 12, 2010, http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/75401-us-chamber-warns-of-double-dip-
recession (HEG)

U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue warned the U.S. faces a double-dip recession
because of the taxes and regulations under consideration by the Democratic Congress and President Barack Obama. “Congress, the
administration and states must recognize that our weak economy simply could not sustain all the new
taxes, regulations and mandates now under consideration. It’s a sure-fire recipe for a double-dip recession, or
worse,” Donohue said in a speech providing the Chamber's outlook for 2010.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 10 of 17

Internal Link 1 XTs

Small businesses have empirically lead us out of recessions. Janet Morrissey 09

Janet Morrissey [TIME Magazine contributor], "Small Business, Key to Recovery, Is Still Hurting", © 2010 Time Inc., Nov. 17, 2009,
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1940197,00.html (HEG)

The recession has hit small businesses particularly hard during this recession, and government bailout programs have
yet to offer significant incentive programs aimed at propping up the battered sector. Although there are some provisions for small companies, "we're not
Yet, the small business community has typically played a key role in
seeing it," says Brennan. "We're always left out."
leading the country out of past recessions. Small businesses generated 65% of the job growth between
1993 and 2008, and represent about half of the private-sector employment in the U.S., according to the Small
Business Administration. "So they are going to be important for us to have a true recovery that includes job
growth," says White.

70% of all new jobs created are by small businesses. Rep. Vern Buchanan 09
Rep. Vern Buchanan [R-FL13, House Committee on Small Business, Republican Leader of the Subcommittee on Finance and Tax], "SMALL BUSINESS--
KEY TO GETTING OUR ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK", The United States House of Representative, Section 22, March 4, 2009,
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/record.xpd?id=111-h20090304-22 (HEG)

Congress should be working to strengthen the backbone of our

Rather than exploding the size of Federal Government,
economy with small businesses. Seventy percent of all new jobs are created by small business, many of them
in our area family owned. Let's get our economy back on track by helping to work with small businesses. That's the
legacy that we want to leave our children and grandchildren.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 11 of 17

Internal Link 2 XTs

High commodity prices, like those that could result from a Bottle Bill, could send us into a double-
dip recession. Edward Harrison 09
Edward Harrison [Credit Writedowns, banking and finance specialist at the economic consultancy Global Macro Advisors. Previously, he worked in various
strategy and finance roles at Deutsche Bank, Bain Consulting, and Yahoo, MBA from Columbia Business School and completed his undergraduate studies
with a degree in economics from Dartmouth College], "What does a double dip recession look like?" COPYRIGHT © 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 AURORA
ADVISORS INCORPORATED, August 4, 2009, http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/what-does-double-dip-recession-look.html (HEG)

What does a double dip recession look like? Below is a post I penned earlier this week about double dip recessions. The Volcker
Whip-inflation-now induced double dip in 1980-1982 is the best precedent for today. What could tip us into a
secondary relapse? A lot of things: commodity prices, oil, higher interest rates, commercial real estate, or
swine flu.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 12 of 17

Impact XTs

Empirically, US recessions cause similar recessions around the globe (laundry list of countries and
their responses to a recession). Nouriel Roubini 09
Nouriel Roubini [professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, an economic
consultancy firm. BA in political economics at Bocconi University and doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. ], "A Global Breakdown
Of The Recession In 2009", Jan 15, 2009, http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/14/global-recession-2009-oped-cx_nr_0115roubini.html (HEG)

Here is a global breakdown of my forecast. The United States economy is only halfway through a recession that started in December
2007 and will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout all of 2009 for a
cumulative output loss of 5%. One last look at 2008 will reveal a very weak fourth quarter with GDP growth contracting about -6% in the wake of a sharp
fall in personal consumption and private domestic investment. I see the real GDP growth contraction playing out through the year as follows: first quarter
2009: -5%; second quarter 2009: -4%; third quarter 2009: -2.5%; fourth quarter 2009: -1%--adding up to a yearly real GDP growth of -3.4% for the U.S. in
2009. This forecast is much worse than the current consensus forecast seeing a growth recovery in the second half of 2009; I also predict significantly weak
growth recovery--well below potential--in 2010. Canada entered recession at the end of 2008, and the outlook for 2009
is likely to be worse, with the economy contracting by an estimated 1.5% to 2% for the year. In 2009, Latin American countries
will face a significant slowdown in economic growth. A combination of negative external shocks will slow down regional GDP
growth to 0.8% in 2009. Under my scenario, all countries in the region will experience significant deceleration of economic activity in 2009. I expect
Argentina and Mexico to shift into negative growth territory on a year-over-year basis. For the region as a whole,
recovery will likely begin between the first and second quarters of 2010. The latest cyclical upswing in the Eurozone was largely driven by a temporary but powerful boost to
domestic investment from disappearing risk premia in the aftermath of the adoption of the single currency and by external demand from a buoyant world economy. Both demand
sources fizzled out by the second half of 2008, leaving the Eurozone as a whole and its largest members exposed to diverging deleveraging patterns in the face of suboptimal
EMU-wide automatic fiscal stabilizer mechanisms. The latest record-low readings of leading and sentiment indicators point to a severe recession ahead in 2009 that shapes up to
For the Eurozone, I expect a below-consensus contraction in real GDP of around -2.5%, with negative
be worse than the 1992-93 crisis.
growth in each of the four quarters of the year. The United Kingdom economy is poised to shrink in 2009.
Our forecast of a -2.3% growth in real GDP is below consensus as we do not expect a recovery in the second half of the year. Despite the relative resilience
of consumer spending, investment should continue to collapse and the housing sector has yet to reach a bottom. The Nordics, whose growth has
outpaced other developed economies in recent years, are
poised for much slower growth in 2009 and most likely an outright recession in
growing faster than the world for the past decade as convergence occurs,
most of the countries in this region. After
Eastern Europe is set to slow abruptly in 2009. Countries with the largest current-account deficits--notably
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria--are the most exposed to sharp corrections. Estonia and Latvia
are already in the midst of sharp recessions, and Latvia turned to the IMF for help in December to avert crisis. The risk of an outright financial crisis is high
in a number of countries in this region. The combination of global credit headwinds and lower oil prices have dampened growth prospects in the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) (ex-Russia) with growth expected to slow to about 2% in 2009, with Ukraine and Kazakhstan being hardest hit
by the crisis. With oil prices remaining well below half of the 2008 level, we expect Russian output to contract by 2.5% to 3% in
2009 as manufacturing contracts and Russia's inflow-fueled consumption slows sharply. Given its reliance on exports and capital flows to fuel growth, Asia
We expect Asia's, excluding Japan, growth to slow down sharply to 3.8% in
faces a gloomy 2009 amid a G-7 recession.
2009. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan will remain in recession through the first half of 2009, which might extend into
third quarter 2009 while the ASEAN economies will slow significantly from the 2004-07 growth trends. We believe China
will experience a hard landing in 2009, with growth unlikely to exceed 5%, a sharp slowdown from the 10% average of the last five years.
The reversal of capital flows and high credit cost will pull down India's growth significantly, to around 5% in
2009 from an estimated 6% in 2008. Japan's domestic demand continues to be an unreliable growth driver, and its export machine--the growth engine of
recent years--is stalling, given the global contraction and a stronger yen. Consequently, we foresee real GDP growth contracting 2.5% in 2009 after almost
flat growth for 2008 as a whole. Australia's recession will likely end in 2009 after starting in fourth quarter 2008. Average annual GDP growth in 2009 will
be flat to sluggish (0% to 1%) after registering an estimated 1.6% in 2008. New Zealand may have a tougher time than Australia during the global recession,
Given that the global recession will reduce demand
with GDP expected to contract 1% in 2009 after growing around 1% in 2008.
for Middle East and North Africa's resource and non-resource exports, and the global liquidity crunch will reduce capital
inflows, growth is expected to slow to an average of 3% in 2009 from almost 6% in 2008. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries will witness a significant dip in their hydrocarbon receipts, terms of trade and current account
surplus positions in 2009. Average real GDP growth in the GCC may slow to 2.5% in 2009. Israel's growth is expected to slow
significantly in 2009 to around 1% and we would not rule out a contraction. Sub-Saharan Africa's growth will slow to around
3.5% in 2009 from an average pace of 5% over the last decade as the reduction in global demand will reduce exports and capital inflows, including
development assistance. Growth in South Africa in 2009 is set to slow to around 1% with several quarters of negative growth as mining output contracts.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 13 of 17

UQ – Double-Dip Recession Not Likely (1/2)

A double-dip is unlikely - unless the government steps in (like with a Bottle Bill). Henry Blodget 10
Henry Blodget [Editor and CEO of The Business Insider, a business news and analysis site, and a host of Yahoo TechTicker], "Stop Worrying About A
Double-Dip Recession--It Has Never Happened Before", Jan 05, 2010, http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/398508/Stop-Worrying-About-A-Double-
Dip-Recession--It-Has-Never-Happened-Before (HEG)

a loud minority of
The market got off to a great start in 2010 on the back of yesterday's strong economic numbers. But that hasn't stopped
economists from worrying about a "double-dip." Paul Krugman, for example, argued in the New York Times that the US is on the verge
of making the same mistake that we made in 1937--growing complacent about a fragile recovery and cutting off economic stimulus too soon. In 1937, the
Anything's
removal of stimulus helped plunge the economy back into recession and Krugman is worried the same thing will happen this time around.
possible, but a double-dip recession is unlikely, says our guest Chris Rupkey, chief economist at the Bank
of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. The two classic "double-dips" that most people point to--in the 1930s and the early
1980s--were really comprised of two separate recessions. More importantly, the second recession in each case was caused by
aggressive government action, which Rupkey doesn't see happening in this case. There's plenty to lose sleep over, Rupkey says, but a double-
dip is unlikely. Barring external shocks and policy errors, economies just don't behave that way.

The likelihood of a double-dip is “very low.” Mickey Levy 10

Mickey D. Levy [Bank of America’s chief economist and an adviser to several Federal Reserve banks], "Mickey
Levy: Double-Dip Unlikely but Fiscal Policy Is a Disaster", January 07, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/181381-mickey-levy-double-dip-unlikely-but-
fiscal-policy-is-a-disaster (HEG)

M.L.:I expect the U.S. economy to continue to recover with healthy growth. The probability of a double-
dip recession is very low. Consumer spending should grow only modestly, certainly slower than prior
economic rebounds. However, businesses have slashed inventories, capital spending, and employment,
and in 2010 they will be increasing production and employment. Housing will continue to rebound, and exports will be a
major source of strength, reflecting a global economic rebound and the lag impact of the weaker dollar.

Despite slow economic growth, a double-dip recession is unlikely. Summit Business Media 09
"IMF: U.S. double-dip recession unlikely", Copyright (c) 2010 ProducersWEB, Summit Business Media, November 13, 2009,
http://www.producersweb.com/r/WIRE/d/contentFocus?adcID=4ec4c7b3bf8da47b2970c3350e938068&pwc=ipsh (HEG)

Although the recovery of the U.S. economy continues to be slow, a double-dip recession is unlikely,
according to Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Last
month, the IMF increased its U.S. growth outlook to 1.5 percent for 2010, however, Strauss-Kahn says the forecast
could be pessimistic. "Our forecast has that, not only in the United States but also for the rest of the world,
2010 will be a year of recovery. I must say, in some respects, we had been a little pessimistic because growth has resumed a little earlier than
expected, by one quarter or so." In addition, he noted that capital flows to emerging markets reflect the positive
outlook for those economies, while warning of the potential for destabilization of currencies and asset prices.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 14 of 17

UQ – Double-Dip Recession Not Likely (1/2)

The economy will grow into 2011; a double-dip recession is not likely. Bob Baur 09
Bob Baur [chief global economist for Principal Global Investors] & the Principal Global Investors Economic Committee, "On
the Other Hand: Economic Insights", Published by Principal Global Investors, November 2009,
http://www.principalglobal.com/knowledge/download.aspx?id=50008 (HEG) [warrants are in the non-underlined parts of the
card, in case you’re asked for them]
While there have been frequent references to sluggish spending or a moderate recovery, we
U.S. Forecast
don’t foresee a “double- dip” or second recession next year. On the contrary, we expect U.S. economic
growth to be mostly steady and one which gains momentum into 2011. Our forecast summary is as follows:
• Real GDP will rise 3.2% annualized in the fourth quarter 2009 • Real GDP will decline of -2.5% during
2009, followed by gains of 2.9% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011 • Residential construction will continue to grow but at a slower
pace than the 19.5% rate of last quarter; high delinquency rates and an extremely high proportion of mortgages where the
debt exceeds the house value may inhibit the sale of existing homes and the construction of new ones; new tax credits and
other residential stimulus packages will ameliorate this effect somewhat • Export growth will remain strong: up 11.1%
in 2010 and 10.9% 2011 • Government spending will grow faster than in 2009 (with growth of 2.2%) with increases of 3.0%
in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011, respectively. Our base case forecasts outlined in the attached table depend on a gradual trend
higher for consumer spending as well as investment, along with a move from inventory liquidation to accumulation,
combined with an increase in net exports. For this forecast to come to fruition, employment growth must resume, corporate
profit growth must remain strong and banks once again must resume more normal lending practices. These underlying factors
are envisioned in the attached GDP forecast.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 15 of 17

AT: Stores Won’t Have to Take Back Bottles

1. It’s either the stores or the recycling centers:

a) Stores: if the stores have to, then that links in right with the DA.
b) Centers: if recycling centers don’t have to, that links in too. 2 warrants:

A. If recycling increases like Aff wants it to, recyclers won’t be able to handle the flood of empty
bottles. Jennifer Ginsberg 06
Jennifer Ginsberg [Staff writer for the West Virginia Citizen Action Group], "One man’s trash", February 17, 2006,
http://www.wvcag.org/news/fair_use/2006/02_17.htm (HEG)

Not everyone favors the bill. “From a restaurant owner’s standpoint, it would be a nightmare,” said downtown bar and restaurant proprietor
Scott Miller. Bar and restaurant employees would have to make sure bottles didn’t end up in the trash, then have a separate area to store empties and cases to
pack them in for the drivers who would have to haul the bottles back to the distributor. Customers empty hundreds of bottles a day at
Miller’s Bar 101, Sam’s Uptown and The Edge bars and Ichiban restaurant. “When you’re busy, you don’t want to have to worry about where the bottles are
The Kanawha County Solid Waste Authority
going,” he said. “It takes away from the bartenders’ ability to help the next customer.”
gets close to 80,000 pounds of glass and plastic bottles and aluminum cans a month, said director Tim
Dailey. The recyclables come from what people set on the curb on trash day and what they drop off at the Slack Street center. Dailey estimates
the center gets 15 to 20 percent of people’s recyclables. “If we would go up to 90 percent of the
recycling, what the bottle bill wants, we wouldn’t have the space to handle it,” he said. “Someone would
have to build a processing plant that would handle it.”

B. There aren’t enough recycling locations for stores to designate as their “redemption center.”
River Cities' Reader 02
The River Cities' Reader [published in print as tabloid newspaper], "Can Grocers Crush the Bottle Bill?" 08 January 2002,
http://www.rcreader.com/news/can-grocers-crush-the-bottle/ (HEG)

When the Iowa legislature convenes next week, it should expect a new round of lobbying from the
state’s grocers to repeal the state’s “Bottle Bill” – the recycling/litter-control law that requires a five-cent deposit on containers for
beer, soda, wine, and other beverages. In early December, grocers around the state held a drive asking customers to sign a petition favoring repeal of the 23-
year-old law. The premise of the petition was that used bottles and cans represent a health risk to consumers and employees because of bacteria and the
The Iowa Grocery Industry
danger of food contamination. The slogan of the campaign was striking: Your grocery store isn’t a garbage dump.
Association claims it would prefer an expanded curbside-recycling system, although it has not offered a proposal.
Both Davenport and Bettendorf offer curbside recycling, but to handle the increased volume from Bottle
Bill-covered containers, existing programs might cost consumers more. Bottle Bill advocates also say curbside recycling
doesn’t account for out-of-home consumption. Grocers argue that the health risk of the Bottle Bill is one of cross-contamination: A person brings dirty cans
and bottles into a store in a grocery cart, for instance, and then customers use that contaminated cart to haul their children around the store or shop. But the
petition drive drew the ire of proponents of the Bottle Bill, who claimed that grocers had no scientific evidence for their claims. They were right. Grocery-
store chain Hy-Vee said this week that it’s in the process of compiling scientific evidence and lining up experts to make its case. “We do know that bacteria
… [that cause illnesses] are present in the cans and bottles,” said Ruth Mitchell, assistant vice president of communications for Hy-Vee. But that information
comes from “preliminary” tests, she said, and the company is doing more extensive testing now with an outside agency. The results should be ready by the
end of the month, Mitchell said. Even if the state’s grocers assemble a battery of health experts who claim there are health risks associated with the return of
cans and bottles to grocery stores, proponents of the Bottle Bill – and public support was gauged at 85 percent in a survey two years ago – will remain
skeptical. The grocery industry can’t point to a single case of food contamination or illness resulting from beverage containers being returned to a store, so
grocers’ stated concerns are hypothetical. Nonetheless, Mitchell said grocers plan to release the results of the drive next week, although she declined to say
how many people signed the petitions. She would only say that “we got a large number of signatures.” No matter how successful the drive was, it’s curious
that grocers would premise a petition drive on a claim that they couldn’t back up. Mitchell was evasive on this point, saying that grocery stores wanted to
have something to show legislators, who generally think the Bottle Bill has overwhelming public support. “It was hard for them to take us seriously,”
Mitchell said. She further added that public support for the Bottle Bill is frequently overstated; when given the option of curbside recycling versus the

[EVIDENCE CONTINUES ON NEXT PAGE]

Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 16 of 17

[EVIDENCE CONTINUES NO TEXT DELETE]

current deposit system, she said, many customers say they would prefer a curbside program. Of course, it would have been much easier to convince the
public – and therefore legislators – with doctors and public-health officials talking about the health risks of used cans and bottles in grocery stores. That’s
one reason Bottle Bill proponents don’t think grocers are being up-front about their reasons for wanting to eliminate the deposit law. “What they’re talking
about is competition,” said Dewayne Johnson, executive director of the Iowa Recycling Association. “They don’t want to offer a service, but they don’t want
the Bottle Bill allows grocery stores to not accept bottles
a competitor to offer the service.” Johnson is alluding to the fact that
and cans for redemption; they can, instead, designate an approved “redemption center” at which people
can return their bottles and cans. But if a grocery store or chain did this, Johnson argues, they’d lose business.
According to a study by the national Container Recycling Institute, 80 percent of people who return bottles and cans to a store for the deposit purchase
something from the store. “It drives traffic,” Johnson said. “It brings people to the store.” “When I have a bunch of cans to take back … where I’m going to
get groceries that day is determined … by their attitude,” said Frank Holst, treasurer of the Eagle View Group of the Sierra Club. In that way, grocers that
embrace the Bottle Bill could actually boost business, he said: “They could turn it into a plus.” The business generated by cans and bottles is a key reason
grocery stores continue to accept bottles and cans even though Mitchell claims stores lose thousands of dollars each month accepting them. (She said she did
Grocers argue that there aren’t enough redemption centers – slightly more than 100
not have specific numbers.)
statewide – for grocery stores to cease taking cans and bottles. And if a recycling center were to go out
of business, grocery stores would be forced to take bottles and cans again.
Will Malson Double-Dip Recession DA (Bottle Bill) Page 17 of 17

UQ – Economy Improving Now

The Recession ended months ago. Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein 09
Brian S. Wesbury is chief economist and Robert Stein is senior economist at First Trust Advisors in Wheaton, Ill., "The Recession Is Over", 2010 Forbes.com
LLC™, May 5 2009, http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/04/recovery-indicators-unemployment-opinions-columnists-recession.html (HEG)

Meanwhile, commodity prices bottomed in February, signaling that the economy has turned a corner. In
addition, Treasury bond yields are on the rise despite direct purchases by the Federal Reserve--an
indicator that real interest rates have bottomed. Add to all these signs April's month-to-month jump in
the ISM Manufacturing Index--the second largest in the last decade--and recent sharp increases in the Chicago PMI, the
Philadelphia Fed Index and the Richmond Fed Index. All show the manufacturing recession is rapidly losing steam. The end of the recession
does not mean we won't lose more jobs; employment is always a lagging indicator. And there will be more
defaults, foreclosures and financial market problems too. But none of these are leading indicators. In our view, there are no
more shoes to drop.