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The good, the bad and the ugly of the tipster worldrevealed!
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Note from Mike of SBC Having spoken with Mat at length about this, I also agree
with him that the current ROI calculations supplied by ABTB are incorrect. Mats
figures take into account the total amount staked on each race and are therefore
accurate in my opinion.
It is similar in concept to a laying service, which calculates the total amount staked as
simply the money placed on a lay (for example placing 50 on a horse to lose at 5/1).
This is incorrect as your total amount risked is actually 250 (50 X 5/1). The
difference therefore in ROI figures when you enter stake as either 50 or 250 is quite
substantial!
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Problems in Practice
As we initially suspected, ABTB while profitable, does provide a potentially big risk to
valuable Best Odds Guarantee accounts in that you run the chance of having your
accounts closed down or limited. The question therefore is do you want to risk limiting
or having such accounts closed for a 5% ROI figure?
A 5% ROI figure can be OK however if you can get on at high enough stakes to make this
more profitable for you, although whether you will ever be able to get on at large
stakes should you so desire is also up for debate.
Imagine a scenario where you placed 200 on a bet at 5/2, 150 on a bet at 5/1 and
you now need to place 100 on a 3rd bet at 8/1. What if you can only get 40 on at 8/1
before the bookie restricts you? Or perhaps the price moves and you can only get a best
priced 7/1? With just a 5% ROI and at large stakes, the margin for error is low and these
practical considerations need to be evaluated. This will and does happen a fair
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amount, especially if you consider the number of others who may be doing exactly the
same as you and trying to back these horses at best odds!
The work involved in compiling the bets manually and then placing them is not to be
ignored either and it could well be you can get better value products for your time.
The appeal of a system like this is that there is just the one-off cost of purchase,
however if its taking up 30 minutes of your time to make 10 profit a day on average,
is this cost-effective for you?
We will continue to test out this system to the advised methods and do hope to have
some firmer conclusions to all these questions in our full review in the New Year. As we
have less than 100 races to hand so far, we are still keen to get more stats and results
under our belt.
We are also working on tweaking the ABTB approach ourselves to see if it can be
improved by applying some additional methods. For example, Mat has drastically cut
the workload needed for following through the development of a specific ABTB
spreadsheet that does all your staking and odds calculations for you. We are also keen
to see if we can improve the ROI figure and reduce the strain placed on BOG accounts
if following. We hope to have more on this soon.
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