IslamicStateinLibya:BetweenUnityand

Fragmentation
Dr.AliaBrahimiisanacademic,analystand
commentatorspecialisinginthepoliticsoftheMiddle
East.SheiscurrentlyaVisitingResearchFellowat
theOxfordUniversityChangingCharacterofWar
ProgrammeatPembrokeCollegeandaPS21Global
Fellow.
WehaveanappointmentwithRome,Godwilling,readsoneTwitterentryforthe
IslamicState(IS)hashtag#ImmigrationtotheStateinLibya.
Located 400 miles from the southern shores of Europe, Libya unfortunately
recommendsitselfasthenextstaginggroundforamajorISadvance.Sincetheouster
ofMuammaralQadhafiin2011,Libyahasservedasanoperatingspacefortensof
thousands of jihadists pushed out of Mali, Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia, including
notoriousalQaedaveteranssuchasMokhtarBelmokhtarandIbrahimAliAbuBakr
Tantoush.HardlineSalafishavewoncontrolofmajorpopulationcentres,inDerna
andpartsofBenghaziandSirte.Libyaalsoboastsporousborders,significantoil
resources,andupto28millionweaponscirculatingamongapopulationof6million.
Furthermore,asoneformerLibyanPrimeMinisternotedinApril2014,thereisno
state in Libya to say if it is a failed state or not. After 2011, a fragile central
government, headed by five Prime Ministers in three years, struggled to exercise
authority,particularlyintheabsenceofanationalarmy. AsantiQadhafimilitias
refused to disarm, the parliament was stormed, political assassinations and
kidnappingswereroutinized,thepoliceandjudiciaryweretoofearfultooperate,and
mostforeignnationalswereevacuated.
Then,afterelectionsinJune2014,tworivalallianceblocseachclaimedthemantleof
Libyas legitimate government. The interim parliament and the internationally
recognisedgovernmentofprimeministerAbdullahalThinniarenowbasedinthe
eastern city of Tobruk. They are militarily backed by federalist militias, armed
groupsfromZintan,andGeneralKhalifaHaftar,astrongmanwhodefectedfromthe
Qadhafiregimeinthe1980s.TheLibyaDawncoalitionisbasedinTripoliand
comprises a motley crew of Muslim Brotherhood supporters, jihadists and more
economicallymotivated militiamen from Misrata, Zawiya and Sabratha. Foreign
militarysupportfromEgyptandtheUAEfortheTobrukgovernment,andfrom
TurkeyandSudanfortheTripoliblochasservedtodeepenthispoliticalfracture.
In between these two poles, Abu Bakr alBaghdadi has seen the opportunity to
commandeerandorganisethewellestablishedjihadistpresenceinLibya.Forindeed,
theISleadershipdoesnotmerelyseektoexploitchaos,butalso,throughthecreation
ofprotostates,toimposealongtermorder.
Towardstheendoflastsummer,Baghdadidispatchedoneofhissenioraides,Abu
NabilalAnbari,topreparethegroundinLibya.ThestarISpreacher,TurkialBinali

(strippedofhisBahrainicitizenshipinJanuary)wastwicespottedsermonisinginthe
former Qadhafi stronghold of Sirte. Within weeks, official IS provinces were
announcedintheeastofLibya(WilayatBarqa),thewest(WilayatTripoli)andthe
south(WilayatFezzan).SinceJanuary,IShassteppedupitsoperations,includingthe
siegeofaluxuryhotelinTripoli,thebeheadingof21EgyptianCopticChristians,
attacksonoilfieldsnearSirte,andcarbombingsinQubbah,BenghaziandMisrata.
IShasengagedinfiercefightingwithboththeTobrukandTripolialliances.
However,whiletheestablishmentofISinLibyaisaneffectofLibyasfragmentation,
itwillalsobecomeacause.Tobeginwith,theISpresencepromisestofurtherdisrupt
thealreadyfracturousallianceofLibyaDawn.FightersalliedtoLibyaDawnhave
violently clashed with IS as around Sirte where the notorious Tunisian Ahmed
RouissiwaskilledfightingforISadevelopmentwhichwillleadtothedefectionof
hardliners sympathetic to Baghdadis agenda. The IS presence will also place
significantpressureontheTobrukalliance,elementsofwhichmayrejecttheongoing
negotiationsforaunitygovernmentwithLibyaDawn,inordertotrytopurgethe
countryofmilitantIslamismonceandforall.
Mostsignificantly,however,ISwillsendintoturmoilanalreadysplinteringjihadist
sceneinNorthAfrica.TherivalrybetweenalQaedaandISiswellknown,andal
QaedasregionalalliesaresuretobegrudgeBaghdadisboldplayfortheirstomping
ground in Libya. For one, the leader of AlQaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,
AbdelmalekDroukdel,allegedlyvowedtoliquidateIS.Theseturfwarsmaponto
largerbattlesconcerningtheideologyandstrategyofglobaljihad.
InthemannerofOsamabinLadenandAymanalZawahiri,Droukdelrejectswanton
killing,advocatesapragmaticapproachtodealingwithlocalculturesandIslamic
sects, and counsels against (relative) extremism. At this stage you should avoid
issuesof takfir,he onceordered hisfightersinMali,referringtothepracticeof
pronouncing that someone is no longer Muslim. You should limit the circle of
confrontationandofyourenemiestotheutmost.Incidentally,somecommentators
suggested that the recent pledge of allegiance by Boko Haram to Baghdadi
representedasignificantblowtoAQIMsregionalinfluence. However,Droukdel
neversoughtanalliancewiththelikes ofBokoHaram,committedashewasto,
firstly,attackingwesterntargetsand,secondly,conductingjihadaccordingtocertain
standardsofbehaviour.
But like BokoHaram, the Islamic State has relentlessly targeted what I term the
nearer enemy: impure elements of local society. In Iraq and Syria, Baghdadi
identified the Shia as the primary enemy, launched a ruthless campaign against
religiousminorities,andbrutallysuppresseddissenttohispuritanicalvisionofSunni
Islam.Indeed,whiletheannouncementofacaliphatewould,initself,implyastrong
elementofpoliticoreligiousunity,therealstoryisoneofdiscordandintensifying
division.
Initsheartlands,IShaswagedwaronotherhardlineSunnigroupswithintheSyrian
and Iraqi opposition, including Jabhat alNusra and Jamaat Ansar alIslam, and
conducted a campaign of executions against the Sunni tribes of Iraqs Anbar

Province,particularlytheAlbuNimr.OneISmuralinTelAfarbearsaquotefrom
thejihadistideologue,AbdullahAzzam:ifyouwanttoliberatealand,placeinyour
gun ten bullets. Nine for the traitors and one for enemy. Accordingly, IS has
establishedanIslamicMilitaryPoliceunitinRaqqa,todealwithdissentingfighters
and deserters within its own ranks. After the horrific killing of Jordanian pilot
MouathalKaseasbeh,reportsemergedofthearrestinAleppoofaSaudiclericwho
hadvoicedhisobjections.IShasalsoexecutedhundredsofitsown,includingits
spiritualleaderinDeirEzzour,AbuAbdullahalKuwaiti,thechiefofsecurityin
Aleppo, Abu Obeida alMaghrebi, and dozens of foreign fighters who allegedly
plottedacoup.
Baghdadisprojectispredicatedonatheoreticallyendlessprocessofcleavageand
excommunication. Because IS has made inroads in Libya (and also Egypt and
Yemen)bycooptingorinfiltratingpreexisting(local)groups,schismstherewillbe
evenmoreprolificthaninitsnativeterritoriesinIraqandSyria.AsIargueina
forthcomingarticle fortheInternationalInstituteforStrategicStudies,thecoming
phaseofglobaljihadismwillbedrivenbyadialecticaltensionbetweenunityand
fragmentation.
TheISparadigmofjihadguaranteesdivision.ISanditspredecessorgroupsinIraq
approached jihadism as a statebuilding enterprise, driven primarily by their
participationinthepost2003insurgencyandtacticalallianceswithformerBaathist
officials.However,inheringinthisterritorialmodelofjihadaretwomajorsourcesof
potentialconflict. Firstly,itaffordstoISprovincesaccesstosourcesofincome
whichareindependentfromthecentralleadership,andbaseduponlocaltaxation,
extortionandextraction.Secondly,andconsequently,competingclanswithinthese
provinceswillseektocapturethestate.
However,thoughrivalries mayeventuallyconsumeISfromtheinsideout,inthe
moreimmediatetermtheglobaljihadwillbeenergisedbycompetitionbetweenits
variouscomponents.Forexample,boththeInAmenasandWestgateattackswerethe
outcomeoftugsofwarwithintheperpetratingorganisations(AQIMandalShabaab).
Inshort,throughrivalry,therehasbeenanelementofrevival.Ifthepoliticalstatus
quo in Libya persists, and because assorted factions will aggressively vie for the
limelight,wecanexpectaliftforjihadisminNorthAfricaandbeyond.
ProjectforStudyofthe21stCenturyisanonnational,nonpartisan,nonideological
organization.Allviewsexpressedaretheauthorsown.