Ben Graham Centres 2015 Value Investing Conference

15th April, 2015

Patience, Patience, Patience

Richard Oldfield
Oldfield Partners
www.oldfieldpartners.com

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

Oldfield Partners LLP has issued this communication to Professional Clients for private circulation only; it must not be distributed to Retail Clients (as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority).
Please read the Important Information section on the last page of this presentation.

Coca-Cola vs Russian equity market ($) (capital return)

500%

400%

300%

200%

100%

0%

-100%

-200%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Coca-Cola

RTS Index ($)

Source: Bloomberg.
Source: Bloomberg, Oldfield Partners. Data as at 31st December 2013.

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Coca-Cola vs Russian equity market ($) (capital return)

500%

400%

300%

200%

100%

0%

-100%

-200%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Coca-Cola

RTS Index ($)

Source: Bloomberg, Oldfield Partners. Data as at 31st March 2015.

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Reinvesting when terrified

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Value vs growth

200
190
180

Value period

Growth
period

Value
period

Growth period

170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: MSCI monthly data via Bloomberg, price indices. Data as at 28th February 2015.

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Graham & Dodd P/E prospective returns

10 year annualised return by starting Graham & Dodd P/E

10 year annualised return by starting Graham & Dodd P/E

Source: MSCI monthly data via Bloomberg, price indices. Data as at 30th September 2014.

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U.S./rest of world performance

1.1

US outperforms

1.0
0.9
0.8

Rest of
developed
world
outperforms

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Dec 69

Dec 73

Dec 77

Dec 81

Dec 85

Dec 89

Dec 93

Dec 97

Dec 01

Dec 05

Dec 09

Dec 13

Source: Monthly data via Bloomberg, price indices. Data as at 28th February 2015.
US: S&P 500 Index
Rest of World: MSCI EAFE Index.

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Japan valuation

Price to book value

Source: Gavekal Data/Macrobond.

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Japan valuation

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE)

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan 83

Jan 88

Jan 93

Jan 98

Jan 03

Jan 08

Jan 13

Source: Capital Economics. Data as at 19th March 2014.

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10

Japanese share buy-backs

Source: Bloomberg.

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11

US long-term real equity returns

Last data point: 23.06.2014

Source: Datastream, CS Global Strategy / IDC

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Important information

Oldfield Partners LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Oldfield Partners LLP has approved and issued this communication for use by the Client. It should not be provided to
third parties without the consent of Oldfield Partners LLP. Information contained in this communication must not be
construed as giving investment advice within or outside the United Kingdom. This document is not a solicitation or offer of
investment services. Any reference to stocks is only for illustrative purposes and opinions expressed herein may be
changed without notice at any time. Oldfield Partners LLP does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of
the information and data contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in this information and
data. No warranty of any kind, implied, expressed or statutory, is given in conjunction with the information and data.
2015 Partnership No. OC309959.

Oldfield Partners

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