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Digital Re-print - January | February 2010

Feature title: Global feed markets - January | February 2010

Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.
All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
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COMMODITIES
GLObAL
GrAIN & FEED mArKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range
of commodities used in food and feed production. His
observations will influence your decision-making.

it’s eventually harvested, in the spring) and Eastern Europe and maybe a bigger than the US sows what may well be an even bigger
European cereal

markets have
Adequate stocks & slow will probably not struggle to find homes.
The USA’s new 100m tonne corn ethanol
industry is an obvious outlet, less fussy in its
expected crop approaching from the former
No 2 maize exporter Argentina too. European
consumers have also been able to draw down
record maize crop for 2010.
The US soya crop has also hit a new
record level despite an even later start,
requirements than the corn food and feed their own adequate maize stocks left over than maize as farmers brought it in first
recently been

closely tracking
demand anchor prices sectors – though a price discount may be
expected from these buyers, pointing to a
two-tier maize market ahead.
from last year’s much bigger domestic crop.
Along with a general unwillingness on the part
of importers to buy more than necessary,
because of its tendency to spoil quicker
under damp harvest weather. Two other,
colliding, factors have been driving soya -
However, overall, there is a slacker feel this has kept US maize exports far below the incessant heavy demand from top world
moves on the

E
to maize markets in the US, Europe, Asia levels anticipated by the USDA. That means importer China and the growing likelihood
xternal factors continued to a bullish influence over the commodity markets and other big compounding regions with end-season stocks of maize in the US will that those record South American soya
Chicago futures dominate European grain and in 2010 amid ongoing credit squeezes and US alternative supplies still coming through probably be looser than expected and upward crops we expected in our last issue will all
feed markets in the opening proposals for new restrictions on the activities of from up and coming exporters like Brazil pressures on prices reduced – even before get planted and harvested. Although China is
markets and in weeks of 2010 - US weather/ banks and hedge funds in futures trading.
crop news, currency volatility, constant Perhaps the biggest upset, though was the US
international export shifts in pundits’ short-medium term Agriculture Department’s surprise decision to
views on the global economic outlook raise its maize crop forecastto a new record 334m
pricing. Chicago, as and speculators’ often fickle responses tonnes from 328m. This was not a massive rise Naturally ahead
to all these issues. in terms of nearly 800m tonnes of world maize
noted in our intro, However, the good news for consumers in consumption but it wrong footed the US trade
late-January was that overall feed raw material who had expected a crop decline after one of the
had its brief run-up, costs were moving down - in both the energy wettest Novembers on record kept 10% of it in
and protein sectors - amid larger than expected the field far beyond normal harvest dates.
then turned ‘south’ supplies of wheat, maize and soyabeans, prices of
all three flirting with three-month lows as we went
Not that there isn’t still a big, perhaps growing,
question mark over the quality of crops harvested Satisfying customers
through delivering the perfect product!
again. to press. Price restraint has also been demanded under damp conditions and stored with high
by continuing uncertainty over the growth of moisture, not to mention the 5% still unharvested
world demand for cereals in another recessionary even in January - a large chunk of it lying for some
year. Speculators might find it tougher to exert time under snow. Yet even that grain (assuming

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32 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE January - february 2010 | 33
be be
applied
applied
to to
all all
grain
grain
binsbins
andand
silos
silos
on on
a a

News January - February 2010

Quality
Qualitygrain
grainstorage
storage
the only outstanding growth market for soya Another significant development in the past possibility for cheaper grain in the early weeks
GAME Engineering Ltd become a distributorWe’re
for
We’reSCE
right Bins
rightup
upthere
there

G
products so far this season, its heavy demand month or so is that analysts are not talking of 2010. AME Engineering new cus tomer s
is eating into US stocks at an uncomfortably down the next world wheat crop as much as have recently been looking for turn
rapid pace although it is possible some of they were in the autumn, removing one of Growth in wheat use slowing appointed distributors
for the specialist bin supplier
key bin installation
package.
thee mega purchases might not get shipped – the key reasons for speculators to invest in
swapped instead to Latin American soya when wheat and helping to keep a premium of about down SCE, Silo Construction
Working closely Grain. Sports
Grain.Which
Which & Performance
is why
is why wewe never Nutrition
never
Engineering Limited of Belgium,
these crops are confirmed. Either way, the 10% on distant 2010 Chicago futures prices. Last season world wheat consumption with SCE and It’sIt’s
your Conference
your underestimate
underestimate thethe
importance
importance
extraordinary bounce-back in back in Latin
American crops should restrain prices ahead
A similar premium was forecast by futures
this time last year but that proved wrong –
grew by over 22m tonnes or about 3.6%.
During 2009/10, the increase is expected to
FOOD CHAIN
to bring SCE’s range of single
and twin skin bins to the
with other sub
contractors,
business.
business.of of
howhow
Bridging it isit handled.
Markets, is handled.
Business & Research
market in the United Kingdom If you
If you
need
needa partner
a partnerwith
with
thethe
– for soya and the entire oilseed meal sector. futures are actually cheaper now than then. be nearer 7m tonnes or about 1.1%. Most GAME expertise,
expertise,technology
technology andand
and throughout Ireland.
Wheat too has also had its share of weather
problems in the USA with planting of the US
Clearly many of the bullish supply factors
have been offset by bearish demand news
of this slowdown is down to the US and the
EU, where feeding to livestock boomed last
From Farm to Table Engineering can
Koen Verbrugge, sales engineer offer a design and
manufacturing
manufacturing
ensure
ensurethat
that
your
methods
methods
your
storage
to to
storageplant
plant
at SCE commented ‘SCE was so build ser vice for is second-to-none
is second-to-none in in
terms
termsof of
soft red winter crop running late (planted on in the past couple of months. Yet that did season but has now flattened out, in the US
delighted with the collaboration t win and single quality
quality
andandprocesses,
processes, then
then
the same land as the delayed maize crop) and not stop commodity prices rallying at one case, even falling. World wheat feeding overall and experience of the staff skin bins including
amid generally poor price incentives, leading stage fast and far enough for some pundits may also drop 1m or 2m tonnes this season,
look
looknono
further.
further.
of GAME Engineer ing that erection,
a drop in total US winter wheat sowings of to predict another bull market was now on leaving growth dependent on the food and forming the distributor ship installation You
You
can
can
trust
trust
in in
Chief.
Chief.
over 6m acres to their lowest level since the way and that grains – as undervalued ethanol sectors (though the latter needs w a s o n l y a l o g i c s t e p .’ o f c o n v e y o r s ,
1913! However, while this is a supporting commodities – would have to join in the fray. watching as a bullish factor). feeders and
During GAME Engineering’s many 19bin & 20 November
suppliers, but these2009, For Frankfurt
more inFormation(Germany) :
An even starker shift is taking place on the ot h e r p r o ce s s m a ch i n e r y. Le Meridien
recent working relationship on bins from SCE Hotel (Frankfurt)
are the best I GAME Engineering > Combine with FiEurope
world export markets – where international Civil engineering, elec trical European Business
The
thepremier meeting point
construction of ffor the feed and food industry in 2010.
inished have seen. I feel thatandbringing
Research Cases from Kesko, Lucozade, Science in Sports,
Dave Burkitt
wheat prices are ‘made’ with considerable engineering
Addressing common concerns and identifying and control can
opportunities. NutriSense, Lantmannen, Solae, Beneo-Palatinit,
Beckingham
Beckingham NutriScience,
Business
Business Professional
Park
Park
produc t blending bins for SCE to the UK will be to the Team
Cycling, Skating & Body Building Nutritionists,
Contracts Maastricht
Director University,
Witham
influence on US and EU grain values. Last be provided within GAME Tolleshunt
TolleshuntMajor,
Major,
Maldon
Maldon
Wagg JoinFoods, they were
us in Cancun, most
Mexico!. For more information visit: benefZenith
it of& many
many others
future bin Essex Essex
St CM9
HughsCM98LZ,8LZ,
UKUK Park
Business
Engineering’s turnkey packages.
season world import demand rocketed by impressed by the people and projecMeet
ts. Leading
We are EU cur rently
26m to 142.6m tonnes or 22%. This season, www.globalfeed-food.com
service provided. So much so GAME Engineer ing Projec t “do”
d eve lo Openma
ping
Research
Innovation
TelWitham
andcdevelop
ny p r oje t s Fax
Tel+44
Institutes, +44
join(0)1621
(0)1621
European
St 868944
868944
Research
Hughs, Lincoln,
New Industry & Research Networks
LN6
Fax+44 9TW,
+44
(0)1621 United
(0)1621 Kindgom
868955
868955
Projects,

it’s expected to drop back by 13%, thanks that GAME Engineering plan Engineering Manager, Stewar t
Hosted jointly by
involving new bins and I look E-mail Tel: +44
E-mail 1522 868021
sales@chief.co.uk
sales@chief.co.uk
in co-operation
to better crops and much lower import to bring thisFAOsuccessful
& IFIF working Brown said, ‘Over the years for w a r d to wor k ing mor e Email: dburkitt@game-engineering.com
with Conafab www.chief.co.uk
www.chief.co.uk
requirements in North Africa and the Middle partnership to the advantage of I have had e x pe r ie nce of closely with SCE in the future’. Website: www.game-engineering.comº
East, especially Iran.
None of these changes really has much to Grain &&
Grainfeed
feed
millinG
millinG
technoloGy
technoloGy January
January
- february
- february
2010
2010
| 23| 23
do with global recession – more the weather IFIF QP AD.indd 1 19/06/2009 15:34
in importing countries and, for some wheat
consumers, changes in the supply and cost of GFMT10.01.indd
GFMT10.01.indd
23 23 29/01/2010
29/01/2010
15:17
15:17
maize as the chief competitor in animal feeds.
We pride ourselves in implementing > Turnkey installations
factor, markets seem to have taken it in their However, most of this short-lived rally was However, the economic squeeze has naturally
the latest technological
stride. Although SRW is the basis of the highly ignoring fundamentals and based almost solely made import buyers more price-conscious > Cleaning equipment
improvements
influential Chicago futures market (which on an ever weakening US dollar. Paradoxically, across the cereal sector, either because of
We strive for the highest quality > Milling equipment
Europe follows more and more these days), the latter was seen as signal that the US/global tight credit or concerns about depressed
it is also the grain in most abundant supply economy was perking up, allowing speculators meat and feed demand. & confidence in our products & > Transfer equipment
from the largest cross-section of sources to feel more comfortable letting go of the On the supply side, competition is as fierce services
> Extraction Control
– US, Europe east and west, former Soviet ‘safe’ or ‘‘quality’ currency to spend on more as ever for wheat import custom. World Our goal is complete customer
Union etc. Even the projected decline in US on riskier investments – like commodities. wheat output in 2009/10, far from falling
> Packaging
satisfaction in the production of
wheat output in 2010 is more or less offset The problem with this argument at the sharply as many predicted this time last year, our flour milling machines > Complementary machines
by huge carryover stocks stocks at the start moment is that each week, sometimes each declined by just 6m to 11m tonnes – barely
of the new season. Large wheat stocks will day, seems to bring a different or opposing over 1% from 2008/09’s record 686/683m
also be held in Europe and massive stocks in view on whether the global recession really tonnes (USDA/IGC). Thanks to that massive
the former Soviet countries. As in the maize is ending in the US, China, Western Europe crop, stocks carried into this season were
market, this leaves one wondering how much etc. But whatever the wishful thanking of at a 7-year peak of 164m tonnes – over 40m
lower prices would have been without these banks and hedge funds trying to talk up the more than last season’s. So wheat supplies
US weather problems. value of their portfolios to punters, the idea are significantly larger this year during a year
Although dearer than in the autumn, that commodity demand is set to roar away of flattening demand.
even the quality wheats have come down a does look premature. The reality is that both Wheat value is also set by the price of Konya Organize Sanayi Bölgesi 7 Sokak
bit in price recently with confirmation of a wheat and feed grains have recently suffered competing feedgrains and, to a lesser extent No: 3 Konya/TÜRKİYE
bigger than expected Canadian crop, a very from a paucity of real physical demand. So, rice as a foodgrain in large parts of Asia. The T: +90 332 239 1016 (pbx)
large Australian harvest for the second year not surprisingly, grain prices – like those of rice price has been rising quite sharply on F: +90 332 239 1348
running and plenty of good quality wheat crude oil and gold have shed much of these shortfalls in some countries and there will E: unormak@unormak.com.tr
coming out of the ‘Black Sea’ region, especially speculative-based gains. In fact, all the recent be some substitution by wheat in south Asia
from Kazakhstan. talk on the EU market has been about the but not by enough to seriously distort total

www.unormak.com.tr Realizing your future by your voice


34 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Unormak.indd &feed millinG technoloGy
Grain 1 feed millinG technoloGy
Grain & PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE January - february24/11/2009
2010 | 3515:56
January - february 2010 | 7
year’s record but that gap is halved by the
18m tonnes of stocks carried in from last
season (versus 12m the year before). As the
EU only needs 127m tonnes of wheat for its
own purposes, this leaves more than enough
to meet some foreseen export demand and
still maintain comfortable end-season stocks.
Not surprisingly these EU & world supply/
demand equations have made many EU buyers

VIV Europe 2010


(and importers around the world) reluctant
to take on forward coverage. Yet farmers
have been equally reticent, watching prices
dip again to levels that, for many, offer little
if any profit. The result has been a stalemate,
wheat demand or wheat value. Maize prices conceivably be even larger by mid-2011. slow trade to open the year and an EU market
meanwhile seem to be on the way down again, European cereal markets have recently been moving increasingly on ‘outside’ factors like
also influencing wheat as a competitor in closely tracking moves on the Chicago futures the value of the dollar, economic signals,
feeds. markets and in international export pricing. crude oil and gold prices – or simply daily
Wheat prices are also influenced by
perceptions of what supply will be available
from the next crop. Back in the autumn, many
Chicago, as noted in our intro, had its brief
run-up, then turned ‘south’ again. Export
prices also enjoyed a bout of strength as
fluctuations in US grain futures.
Probably, this situation will change little
until the spring when markets have a firmer
20 - 22 April
analysts were taking of a big cut in sowings Russian and Ukrainian ‘Black Sea’ sellers sold grip on what has been planted for winter
for 2010 – maybe 5% or more - and a steep less aggressively and manage to hoist prices wheat and will be sown in the spring. Even
decline in production. Yet the last report on the premise of lower 2009 crops in the CIS then, another two or three months will be
from the International Grains Council only region this year. However, the major players needed to gauge the impact of crop weather
expected a 1.1m hectare fall in area. This in the former Soviet Union are still carrying on yields. By this time, wheat value will also
is only a preliminary figure but if it were very large stocks from last year and seem to be influenced by the first firm information on
correct and average yields stayed stable at be returning as more aggressive sellers with what US maize and soya farmers will plant 2 inspiring information platforms centred
this season’s level, it would still deliver an lower prices as 2010 gets underway. for 2010 crops.
adequate crop. Even if wheat area and yields Looking at the other top players in the
around innovation will be hosted:
fell far more steeply and cut production by 5% world wheat export market, Canadian 2009 US maize crop cliffhanger Eggs! Meat Safety
to 10% - and consumption rose another 10m production has recently been revised up by
tonnes - ending stocks of wheat in 2010/11 2.5m to 26.5m tonnes – about 2m less than The previous year was bad enough but
would still be comfortable in the 130/150m last year. Australia’s harvest has been trimmed there’s probably never been a year quite like
tonne range. Currently, the world is expected slightly by hot dry weather in the final stages 2009 in terms of testing US maize farmers’
to carry about 196/7m tonnes of wheat into but will still be large for a second year running ability to raise a crop. First there was doubt
the next crop year, starting around mid-2010 at around 22m tonnes. EU crop estimates whether it would all get sown amid record
– 27m more than last year and almost 70m have continued to creep higher over the late floods in many areas; then an often cool,

Register now
more than in 2007/8. Without a world wheat autumn and early winter months to around sunless summer preventing a ‘catch-up’ to
crop catastrophe this summer, stocks could 139m tonnes - only 12m or so below last beat the risk of early frosts; then the rains

for free entrance


came down and latterly snow too – resulting
in one of the latest crops in perhaps 70 years
of fairly reliable records. However, the almost

at www.viv.net
miraculous escape of 95% of the crop to
harvest and silo by end-year did mask the
possibility of quality problems caused by the
weather, especially amid talk that some might
be left in the field until the spring. Maize,
of course, is a hardy crop and can take a
lot of punishment from the weather once
ripe. However, a two tier market does now
See the latest. Know the latest. Select Utrecht in 2010
seem to be opening up as farmers dump as
much of their damper, lower quality, light The place-to-be to find the most inspiring innovations in future
test weight corn as possible on the market
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the best back for later. This has helped keep
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36 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy PREVIOUS PAGE NEXT PAGE
■ Precise Discharge ■ Tough & Flexible
Consistent profile shape assures uniform discharge Injection molded polyethylene “gives” or “yields” to
growing at 2.4% per annum after a 5% drop
in first half 2009 but a steeper recovery is characteristics over the entire bucket range. bypass obstructions in your elevator, allowing the
possible given China’s still strong economic bucket to return to its original shape.
growth (this may also influence China’s soya
demand with impact on world prices). ■ Perfect Fit ■ Unequaled Strength
Elsewhere, we also see maize demand
Direct inter- Thick walls and prime virgin engineered
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change and resins provide exceptional strength.
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Stocks were lower still as recently as
carrying
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capacity
However, while that did presage record corn
global feedgrain markets, for the moment. keep up with demand without taking stocks prices in 2007/08, it was in the novel context
of equiva-
Not that the US has had any difficulty down to risky low levels by the close of this of record US demand growth for ethanol and ■ Increased Safety lent size
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supplies of both maize and feedwheat from area this spring. Yet the commercial view is maize prices reflected a new synergy between sparking from bent and torn lip aids in filling
other sources. Argentina may have dropped the opposite with most analysts looking for rocketing crude oil prices and speculative steel buckets.
®
of bucket.
out of the No 2 exporter slot after a couple plantings in the US to rise by 3m to 6m acres investment fever for anything that looked
of poor crops but Brazil has expanded which, with a more normal growing season, vaguely like a commodity. The current
its supply enough to fill most of that gap. might add another 10m to 15m tonnes to last situation is different. Wheat and soya supply
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Eastern Europe/CIS maize (and feedwheat) year’s record crop figure. outlooks are currently loose, crude oil is less Prime virgin resins give unsurpassed
suppliers have also been biting smaller It’s also worth noting that world maize than half the price at which it peaked (though ■ Ease of Installation bucket life for maximum return
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far behind official forecasts and keeping the the two largest consuming countries, the growth has slowed markedly (although we reduces load on belt and running components.
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markets. Argentina’s next crop (harvested extra 17m tonnes this season, the lion’s share laws governing its use come up for review). edges of steel buckets. 900,000 buckets in stock worldwide.
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and will be trading more competitively into rest mainly to 3m to 4m tonnes of reviving feeling a bit cautious still after the beating
export channels soon. feed consumption (which fell by nearly 17m they took last year from misplaced bets
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38 | January - february 2010 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
Feature L&D
Fatten up your bottom line. Buhler high-performance animal and aqua feed production
systems are used by leading companies around the world. These producers know they
can rely not just on the technology itself, but also on the support that accompanies it.
person and how effective that
information will be in relation “An L&D programme should provide the company A service combining local presence with global expertise both lowers feed mill operating
OILMEALS – plenty of soya
to their work.
is also roaring ahead of export forecasts for USDA’s January take on 2009/10 world
soya meal.with an analysis of the learning
soya supply required,
puts production at 253.4m, the
up
costs and increases capacity utilization. So the question is not whether you can afford to
ahead
Consultants vs This demand swing to the US owes much about 44.5m from last year. World soya
company
Protein/oilmeal prices were promising a individuals
training most
to disappointing crops suited
in last spring in Latinto crush
theis currently
learning,expectedencompass
to rise by only choose Buhler – it’s how a solution from Buhler will feed your profits. To find out more,
firm An
finish to 2009
L&D but it all went
programme pear-shaped America where stocks ran low and exports 11m tonnes with the rest added to stocks
should
inprovide
the new Yearthe ascompany
USDA confirmedwith a record abecame
variety of learning
less competitive methods
than usual, leaving and into
or disappearing ensure accurate
human food outlets. visit www.buhlergroup.com.
an analysis
91.5m of the
tonne US crop and alearning
steep rise in world buyers few other options. It has probably also Soya meal demand is meanwhile expected
required,
stocks. thehave
There individuals
been some mostreports of reflected feedback is obtained
caution by importers and
(especially to rise analysed
by about 6m-7m tonnes,tohalfensure
of that
suited to the learning, encom-
US crushers struggling to find good quality in China) who want to see South American increase in China and the rest spread over
pass a variety
soyabeans of learning
to produce
ods and ensure accurate feed-
themeth-
better grade, crops up and running,theespecially
learning activity
after weather has been successful”
many moderate/smaller-sized user countries. Visit us at Victam Asia 2010 in Bangkok, Thailand,
higher-protein meals while oil content from played them foul for the past two years. If the Latam crops come through as expected, 3-5 March 2010, www.victam.com
back is obtained and analysed
a lot of this year’s beans will probably be down The good news for consumers is that, so this does not suggest anything other than a
to ensure the learning activity
(more of a problem for crusher profits than far, the Latin
through theAmerican crop
channels outlook
within theremains
pro- flat price trend to falling price trend for the
has been successful.
feedThere
users).areButmany
on the whole, quality
consultants who does
offer very
grammegood.itself.
Record acreages are being sown proteins – which is precisely what futures Bühler AG, Feed & Biomass, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 11 11, F +41 71 955 28 96
not
L&D appear to be that
services a major
canproblem
providein overall
such a and However,
apart from some
care planting
must be delays cause
taken by
that markets point to – even a full year from now - fu.buz@buhlergroup.com, www.buhlergroup.com
meal pricing. yet it seems strange that
programme excessive rain in southern
the consultancy firm is Brazil,
offeringthethe
weather
best andmthis should help keep other oilmeal prices
ore inFormation:
a The big storymay
company for soya the past
waste money few months
on the favours
quality big yields. and
learning Last not
issuejust
we pencilled
what they in under control too.
Liz Elstub
training
has they provide
been Chinese demand. yetWith
are over
reluctant
two canpossibility
the personallyofoffer.
an additional 30m tonnes Supply is also rising for rapeseed meal, up
Learning & Development,
to invest
thirds of itsthe resource
marketing yearinto
stillatostructured
run, the of South American
In answer soyabeans.
to the question This– is looks
L&D about 2.5m tonnes this season amid larger
Recruitment Solutions
programme.
US has already committed 78% of its crop, a waste oflikely
increasingly money?
to beThe answer very
the minimum gain production in the EU and Canada. The EU
Website: www.riskrevolution.com
Service
of which levels and62%
a staggering costs can vary
is going great-
to China muchsome
with depends on the
local sources approach
talking of as muchof alone should
Email: consume about 800,000 tonnes
liz@riskrevloution.com
ly between consultancy companies,
alone. Other destinations have shown more but companies to their L&D and
as 34m to 37m tonnes although most of the whether more.Tel: Thanks
+44 844to335 0598Canadian crop, world
a large
there are some who do not charge for they need
are to committed
mixed performance with EU demand down crops get through to the developing
Jan/Mar key stocks should remain fairly high through this
the development and administering of their own highly-skilled and experi-
(though perhaps reviving more recently) but stages of pod-setting and filling before buyers season, providing a good cushion before the
the programme as they receive money enced workforce.
some Asian countries taking more. The US can breathe easy. 2010 harvest.

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