OCEANIA AND GLOBAL WARMING

Causes and Effects

The Oceania region ranges from the lush tropical mountain ranges of Melanesia to the low
lying coral atolls such as the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, Tokelau and The Republic of Kiribati.
The climate is strongly influenced by the ocean and the El Nińo phenomenon. Small island
nations and the coastal regions—where much of the population is concentrated—are very
vulnerable to increasing coastal flooding and erosion due to rising sea level. In addition,
warming sea temperatures in recent years have damaged many of the region’s spectacular
coral reefs, threatening one of the world’s most diverse ecosystems

Once, all climate changes occurred naturally. However, during the Industrial Revolution, we
began altering our climate and environment through changing agricultural and industrial
practices. Before the Industrial Revolution, human activity released very few gases into the
atmosphere, but now through population growth, fossil fuel burning, and deforestation, we are
affecting the mixture of gases in the atmosphere.

The Greenhouse Effect

Life on earth as we know it

would perish from the cold
without an atmosphere to
trap heat. A balance of
gases reradiate the suns
heat back to keep the
earth's surface to keep the
average global temperature
at 57 degrees F.

During the past century the

global temperature has
risen by one degree - the
effects being seen in
intensifying storms and
rising sea levels.

Most scientists would agree that the temperature of the atmosphere has increased by one
Fahrenheit degree since 1880 with the 10 warmest years on record occurring in the last 15
years. This increase can be seen in the following graph prepared by the U.S. National
Climatic Data Centre.
To fully understand the implications of global warming is not all that easy as the atmosphere
is very complex. Indeed it is too complex to allow the development of a global model which
can accurately predict what will happen years into the future. At this time it is simply too
complex to be done. The current thinking of the scientific community is, however, that global
warming in the last 50 years is most likely the result of increases in greenhouse gases.

We can however examine the short term happenings resulting from global warming which
provide fingerprints for the future. A fingerprint in this case is taken to mean any direct
manifestations of a widespread and long-term trend toward warmer global temperatures.
 SOME OCEANIA FINGERPRINTS

1. Christchurch, New Zealand -- Warmest February on record, 1998. Daily

temperatures averaged near 67°F (19.4°C).

2. Fiji -- Sea-level rise. Reports from local inhabitants at 16 sites indicate

that the island's average shoreline has been receding half a foot (0.15 m)
per year over at least the past 90 years.
3. American and Western Samoa -- Land loss. Western Samoa has
experienced shore recession of about 1.5 feet (0.46 m) per year for at least
the past 90 years.
4. New Zealand -- Retreating glaciers. The average elevation for glaciers in
the Southern Alps has shifted upslope by more than 300 feet (91.4 m) over
the past century.
5. Heard Island (Australia) - Rising temperatures; retreating glaciers. Since
1947 the island's 34 glaciers have decreased by 11% in area and 12% in
volume, with half the loss occurring in the 1980s. Air temperature has risen
1.3°F (0.7°C) between 1947 and 2001.
Harbingers

1. Indonesia -- Malaria spreads to high elevations. Malaria was detected for

the first time as high as 6,900 feet (2,103 m) in the highlands of Irian Jaya
in 1997.

2. American Samoa -- Coral reef bleaching.

3. Papua New Guinea -- Coral reef bleaching.

4. Philippines -- Coral reef bleaching.

5. Australia, Great Barrier Reef -- Coral reef bleaching.

6. New South Wales, Australia -- Wettest August on records, 1998. On

August 15-17, a storm dumped nearly 12 inches (30.5 cm) of rain on
Sydney, over 8 inches (20.3 cm) more than what normally falls during that
entire month.

7. Indonesia -- Burning rainforest, 1998. Fires burned up to 2 million acres

(809,371 hectares) of land, including almost 250,000 acres of primary
forest and parts of the already severely reduced habitat of the Kalimantan
orangutan.

8. Australia - 2002 - Warmest April on record. This occurred in the context

of an average annual temperature increase of 0.9-1.8°F (0.5-1.0°C) per
decade over the past century. There has also been an increase in warm days
and a decrease in cold winter days.

9. New Zealand - Ocean warming. The oceans around New Zealand have
been warming over the past decade at a rate not seen since the 1930s. Over
the last century the average ocean temperatures around New Zealand
increased by about 1.8°F (1°C), slightly more than the global average.
The tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu will be one of the very first to be adversely affected
by global warming. Recent king tides and local flooding have been the worst
in living memory. The people of Tuvalu will most probably have to leave the
coral islands that they have called home for over 5000 years, being
the first casualties of global warming and climate change.

What Are Greenhouse Gases?

Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others

result from human activities. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Certain
human activities, however, add to the levels of most of these naturally
occurring gases:

Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere when solid waste, fossil fuels
(oil, natural gas, and coal), and wood and wood products are burned.

Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas,
and oil. Methane emissions also result from the decomposition of organic
wastes in municipal solid waste landfills, and the raising of livestock.

Nitrous oxide is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well

as during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels.

Very powerful greenhouse gases that are not naturally occurring include
hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur
hexafluoride (SF6), which are generated in a variety of industrial
processes.

Each greenhouse gas differs in its ability to absorb heat in the atmosphere.
HFCs and PFCs are the most heat-absorbent. Methane traps over 21 times
more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide absorbs 270
times more heat per molecule than carbon dioxide. Often, estimates of
 greenhouse gas emissions are presented in units of millions of metric tons
of carbon equivalents (MMTCE), which weights each gas by its GWP
value, or Global Warming Potential.

Carbon dioxide is foremost in the array of greenhouse gases from human activity that increase
the atmosphere's ability to retain heat.

Indeed, other than the flow of water, no mechanism in nature is more crucial than the
circulation of carbon between air, land and water. It is carbon's ability to bond with most non-
metals which has made it the basis of all organic compounds in both plant and animal.
Terrestrial vegetation requires uses of an estimated 60 billion metric tons of carbon a year to
grow and, in doing so, provides oxygen in the process. It is the complex, finely calibrated
gearing of the carbon cycle that sustains life on earth.

The smooth meshing of the carbon cycle's many parts depends on large quantities of carbon
being withdrawn from the atmosphere and stored in forests, oceans, underground deposits of
coal, natural gas and petroleum.
Sadly, the human animal has disrupted this fine balance by releasing carbon prematurely from
these reservoirs, beginning with the burning of forests. This trend has been accelerated by the
burning of fossil fuels which has flooded the atmosphere with enough carbon dioxide to affect
global climate.

Present estimates are that humanity dumps roughly 8.5 billion metric tons of carbon into the
atmosphere each year. This comprises 6.5 billion tons from fossil fuels and 1.5 billion tons
from deforestation. However, only 3.2 billion tons remains in the atmosphere to warm the
planet. Research continues to suggest that forests, grasslands, and the waters of the ocean are
acting as carbon sinks, taking back roughly half the carbon dioxide that we emit. In doing this,
they slow the build-up of carbon dioxide in the air and delaying the effects on climate. In this
context the term "sink" is taken to be a reservoir that uptakes a chemical element or
compound from another part of its cycle - for example, the absorption of billions of tons of
carbon in the form of CO2 by oceans, soils, and trees.
Termites nests in Australia exude streams of carbon dioxide as their
residents break down plant litter. Termites account for a significant
amount of all carbon dioxide released on land through decomposition.
The problem is, however, that scientists cannot be sure how long this situation will last. The
capacity of the oceans, soils, and trees to continually absorb carbon is obviously limited and
the concern is that the forests and other ecosystems may change from carbon sinks to carbon
sources and, in doing so, release more carbon into the atmosphere than they absorb. The
ramifications of this happening are quite frightening, as even mild changes in the pattern of
global warming will produce scorching hot summers, fiercer storms and altered rainfall
patterns.

Coal-burning power stations make a huge

contribution to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.

Clearly the fundamental concern is the ability of the forests and other ecosystems remain as
carbon sinks rather than to become carbon sources and, in doing so, release more carbon into
the atmosphere than they absorb. Once this happens we are in very serious trouble.
Certainly one would hope for a solution in terms of a lowering of greenhouse gas emission,
although in this respect, the non ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by several major
industrialized nations, is a major disappointment. On the other hand, an extensive program of
forestation would provide excellent carbon sinks, as growing forests have the capacity to
absorb large quantities of carbon. In any event, one should hope that we can soon be on the
road to solving this very significant problem.
 The Taylor Glacier in Antarctica
Photo: British Antarctic Survey/Professor Robert Carter

In order to gain a greater understanding of the impact of global warming on the ice regions of
the North and South Poles, scientists have concentrated much of their research in this area.
European scientists recently revealed that they had obtained an ice core from Antarctica that
extends back 740,000 years. This core spans eight previous ice ages and eight warmer
interglacial periods. A subsequent report from Australian researchers indicated that they had
now drilled deep into marine sediments off the coast near Christchurch, New Zealand, that
were deposited by glaciers in the New Zealand alps. This record of climate change goes back
much further than the ice core, almost 4 million years. Many researchers are firmly of the
view that understanding what has happened in the past to the climate is the only way to
predict its future accurately.

More than a million years ago, ice ages waxed and waned on a 40,000 year cycle. In the past
half a million years, these cycles have become about a 100,000 years long, with colder
glacials and much warm inter-glacials lasting only about 10,000 years. The complicating
factor, however, is human intervention and the increasing level of greenhouse gases.
The South American Andes are crusted with many glaciers with one of the grandest being the
Upsala Glacier in Argentina. The above picture represents this glacier as it appeared in 1928.

The Upsala Glacier as it appeared in 2004. The ice is retreating at least 55 meters per year and

the local guides now paint marks on the mountain walls to show where the boundaries of the
glacier used to be.
Australian researchers have also been studying the Antarctic ecosystem gathering information
on how its ecosystem functions as a baseline indicator for detecting and predicting possible
impacts on global change. This involves measuring the feeding rates of animals found under
ice such as sponges and comparing areas that were exposed to light after the summer ice
breakout with those where there was still ice cover even at the height of summer.
Primarily findings were that if global warming resulted in loss of ice cover, there would be
significant changes to the underwater ecosystem in that algae will out compete other organism
if given enough light. Some theories suggest that if the oceans' temperature increases, all the
plankton, which is anything floating in the water at the whim of the currents, is going to
downsize and the smaller organisms that exist now will do better. This would certainly benefit
some animals such as sponges, because they really only feed on ultra plankton in other words
the very tiny stuff. Other animals and plants, however, such as scallops and oysters, feed on
much bigger particles, and thus will be disadvantaged. This will obviously impact on others
further along the food chain and may have significant implications in a broader sense.
In the Arctic region, the vaulting heap of ice that is the Greenland icecap and the swirling seas
nearby have emerged as vital pieces of a puzzle posed by global warming. Each piece of this
puzzle is a dynamic and complicated body of water. In this region, the North Atlantic is about
three kilometers deep and liquid and the icecap is three kilometers high and solid. Experts say
that the ice and waters here are in a state of profound flux and if the trend continues, they
could result in higher sea levels and widespread coastal flooding.
In the past few years, Greenland's melting zone has extended to elevations of almost two
kilometers high in some places. Recent measurements by NASA scientists show that such
melting can have dramatic effects on the ice sheet, with melted water percolating thousands of
meters down through fissures and allowing the ice to slide more easily over the bedrock
below, accelerating its march to the sea. Indeed, many oceanographers say that global
warming may already be pushing the North Atlantic toward instability with waters deep in the
north Atlantic and Arctic become significantly fresher, matched by growing saltiness in the
tropical Atlantic.
Just under 150 years ago the Rhone Glacier in Gletsch, Switzerland,
was among the Swiss Alps' most spectacular sights (below, in an 1849
daguerreotype). today, seen from the same angle (above), the glacier is
a much smaller patch halfway up the mountains. Within the past
century and a half, glaciers have retreated worldwide. However, from
decade to decade some may advance, as those in Scandinavia are
doing today, probably from increased precipitation. the melting of
glaciers and ice caps, along with thermal expansion of ocean water,
has caused sea level to rise four to ten inches over the past century.
In past millenniums when such oceanic breakdown occurred, the climate across much of the
Northern Hemisphere changed dramatically with deep chilled and abrupt shift in patterns of
precipitation and drought from Europe to Venezuela. It is unclear whether the new melting
will result in something similar. Certainly, the gaps in understanding are enormous, but
Greenland is being monitored and measured as never before by satellite, aircraft and scientists
braving the 30-below-zero temperatures.
Scientists and researchers do agree that, if Greenland melts, it would raise sea levels by six
meters. This would mean the end of so many of our Pacific Islands, along with Florida, the
Mississippi embayment, Manhattan and Bangladesh.