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Forward Estimates
2004
2005
52
52
2007
53
3
$31,315.1
2,004.2
4
$33,820.3
2,181.4
5
$35,849.5
2,294.0
6
$38,000.5
2,412.4
1,515.3
575.8
939.5
317.4
(209.7)
1,047.2
(850.0)
197.2
1,671.7
635.2
1,036.4
332.5
(216.3)
1,152.6
(850.0)
302.6
1,830.8
695.7
1,135.1
350.6
(221.5)
1,264.2
(850.0)
414.2
1,922.3
730.5
1,191.8
371.7
(221.5)
1,342.0
(850.0)
492.0
6.30%
1.15%
5.15%
38.0%
3.2%
2.80x
6.35%
1.10%
5.25%
38.0%
2.9%
2.68x
6.40%
1.06%
5.34%
38.0%
2.7%
2.56x
6.45%
1.04%
5.41%
38.0%
2.5%
2.42x
9.5%
9.8%
-2.1%
12.8%
9.0%
9.9%
4.5%
11.1%
8.5%
9.4%
4.7%
10.3%
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
107.3
196.6
2001
52
2002
52
2003
53
$20,087.5
1,600.1
$22,241.4
1,440.4
$24,181.5
1,519.7
1
$26,478.7
1,668.2
2
$28,861.8
1,832.7
1,303.5
521.4
782.1
296.6
(306.2)
772.5
(695.3)
77.2
1,119.6
467.7
651.9
320.8
(322.4)
650.3
(713.6)
(63.3)
1,209.4
459.6
749.8
310.3
106.1
1,166.2
(1,108.8)
57.4
1,364.3
518.4
845.8
303.9
(203.2)
946.5
(850.0)
96.5
7.97%
1.48%
6.49%
40.0%
3.5%
2.34x
6.48%
1.44%
5.03%
41.8%
3.2%
2.22x
6.28%
1.28%
5.00%
38.0%
4.6%
3.57x
10.7%
-10.0%
8.2%
-14.1%
8.7%
5.5%
-3.3%
8.0%
LT Forward Estimates
2008
2009
52
52
2006
52
Projection Year
Net sales
EBITDA
2000
52
% Growth
Sales
EBITDA
D&A
EBIT
Balance Sheet
Ending Balance Amortizable Bank Debt (5% est. interest rate)
Total Other Debt
Total Debt outstanding
3,419.3
3,419.3
$6,838.7
2010
52
2011
53
7
$40,280.5
2,537.0
8
$42,697.3
2,668.0
9
$45,259.2
2,805.8
2,018.4
767.0
1,251.4
394.0
(221.5)
1,423.9
(850.0)
573.9
2,119.3
805.3
1,314.0
417.6
(221.5)
1,510.1
(850.0)
660.1
2,225.3
845.6
1,379.7
442.7
(221.5)
1,600.8
(850.0)
750.8
2,336.6
887.9
1,448.7
469.2
(221.5)
1,696.4
(850.0)
846.4
6.40%
1.04%
5.36%
38.0%
2.4%
2.29x
6.35%
1.04%
5.31%
38.0%
2.2%
2.16x
6.30%
1.04%
5.26%
38.0%
2.1%
2.04x
6.25%
1.04%
5.21%
38.0%
2.0%
1.92x
6.20%
1.04%
5.16%
38.0%
1.9%
1.81x
8.0%
8.8%
5.5%
9.5%
6.0%
5.2%
6.0%
5.0%
6.0%
5.2%
6.0%
5.0%
6.0%
5.2%
6.0%
5.0%
6.0%
5.2%
6.0%
5.0%
6.0%
5.2%
6.0%
5.0%
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
300.0
(550.0)
112.0
205.4
117.4
215.1
123.8
226.9
131.2
240.5
139.1
254.9
147.4
270.2
156.2
286.4
165.6
303.6
912.3
355.8
1,008.9
454.7
1,109.2
558.0
1,211.8
667.2
1,273.2
742.1
1,337.6
821.0
1,405.4
904.1
1,476.6
991.5
1,551.4
1,083.5
477.3
169.6
307.7
6.8
300.2
55.6
472.0
164.2
307.7
6.8
296.9
157.8
461.3
153.6
307.7
6.8
290.3
267.7
445.0
137.2
307.7
6.8
280.1
387.0
423.4
115.7
307.7
6.8
266.8
475.4
397.3
89.5
307.7
6.8
250.5
570.5
366.2
58.4
307.7
6.8
231.3
672.8
329.8
22.1
307.7
6.8
208.7
782.8
270.2
1.2
269.0
6.8
171.8
911.7
3,363.7
3,419.3
$6,783.1
3,205.9
3,419.3
$6,625.3
2,938.2
3,419.3
$6,357.5
2,551.2
3,419.3
$5,970.5
2,075.8
3,419.3
$5,495.1
1,505.3
3,419.3
$4,924.6
832.5
3,419.3
$4,251.8
49.7
3,419.3
$3,469.0
0.0
2,557.3
$2,557.3
Debt Assumptions
2002A EBITDA
Net Debt
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt / EBITDA)
Newco Debt Structure
Senior Bank Debt
Notes
Total*
Oldco
1,519.7
412.7
0.3x
Debt
3,419.3
3,419.3
6,838.7
Newco
1,519.7
6,838.7
4.5x
Int. Rate
5.0%
9.0%
7.0%
Allocation
50.0%
50.0%
100.0%
Int. Exp.
171.0
307.7
478.7
Points
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Fees
34.2
34.2
68.4
Term
10.0
10.0
Amort.
3.4
3.4
6.8
* Total Debt = Net Debt; assumes entire cash balnce used as a source of funds in LBO transaction
Exit Analysis
Exit Year
Exit Year
Debt Outstanding
EBITDA
EBITDA Multiple
Implied Enterprise Value (EV)
Less: Debt At Exit Year*
Implied Equity Value
Sensitivity
Base Case
475.4
2,294.0
6.0x
13,763.9
475.4
13,288.5
Weak Case
475.4
2,294.0
5.0x
11,469.9
475.4
10,994.5
Best Case
475.4
2,294.0
7.0x
16,057.9
475.4
15,582.5
EBITDA Multiple
Given a Required Rate of Return of:
Implied Initial Equity Investment
Plus: Debt investment (from above)
Less: Transaction Fees
Implied Enterprise Value
Less: Existing Net Debt
Plus: Option Proceeds
Implied Equity Value
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Purchase Price Per Share
27.5%
3,263.1
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,033.3
412.7
55.4
9,676.0
396.6
$24.40
5.0x
30.0%
2,961.2
6,838.7
(68.4)
9,731.4
412.7
55.4
9,374.1
396.6
$23.63
32.5%
2,692.1
6,838.7
(68.4)
9,462.4
412.7
55.4
9,105.1
396.6
$22.96
27.5%
3,943.9
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,714.2
412.7
55.4
10,356.9
396.6
$26.11
6.0x
30.0%
3,579.0
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,349.3
412.7
55.4
9,992.0
396.6
$25.19
32.5%
3,253.9
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,024.1
412.7
55.4
9,666.8
396.6
$24.37
27.5%
4,624.7
6,838.7
(68.4)
11,395.0
412.7
55.4
11,037.7
396.6
$27.83
7.0x
30.0%
4,196.8
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,967.1
412.7
55.4
10,609.8
396.6
$26.75
32.5%
3,815.6
6,838.7
(68.4)
10,585.8
412.7
55.4
10,228.5
396.6
$25.79
$25.19
Sources of Funds
Senior Bank Debt
Notes
Total Debt
Cash
Option Proceeds
Common Equity
Total Sources of Funds
3,419.3
3,419.3
6,838.7
700.4
55.4
3,579.0
11,173.5
Uses of Funds
Share Purchase (including option proceeds)
Refinance existing bank debt
Fees and expenses
Total Uses of Funds
9,992.0
1,113.1
68.4
11,173.5
Goodwill Calclation
Purchase price of equity
Existing goodwill
Less: Book value
Less: Option Proceeds
Goodwill
2002A
700.4
1,019.3
2,215.8
878.9
0.0
4,830.9
9,645.3
1,113.1
0.0
3,335.2
5,197.0
9,645.3
9,992.0
878.9
(5,197.0)
(55.4)
5618.5
PF LBO
Adjustments
(700.4)
(878.9)
5,618.5
68.4
(1,579.3)
5,686.8
(1,113.1)
3,419.3
3,419.3
(5,197.0)
(6,310.1)
3,579.0
10,417.6
0.0
1,019.3
2,215.8
5,618.5
68.4
4,830.9
13,752.8
3,419.3
3,419.3
3,335.2
3,579.0
13,752.8