TRENDS in PUBLIC SUPPORT

for SAME-SEX MARRIAGE by State

Andrew R. Flores, Ph.D., Public Opinion and Policy Fellow,
Williams Ins*tute
Sco; Barclay, Ph.D., Professor of History and Poli@cs,
Drexel University

National support for marriage equality

has accelerated over time
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

19

95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16

0%

Favor

Oppose

Marriage Equality: National Polling Trend

(Flores, Barclay 2015)

But what is going on in the states?

?
Ideally, we would want polls from every state over time.

(Flores, Barclay 2015)

Surveys from all 50 states

are rare, so we use estimates

1.

Collect national polls from multiple pollsters for each year

2.

Model the probability an individual supports marriage equality based

on their demographics and geographic location

3.

Use state demographics & presidential vote-share to add information

about how states differ

(Flores, Barclay 2015)

2014 Estimates

Out of 36 states with 50% support or

more, 31 states (and D.C.) currently
perform marriages for same-sex couples

Of the four states under question at the

U.S. Supreme Court:
Two have majority support (MI, OH)
One is above 45% support (KY)
One is at 35%-40% support (TN)
36 states at
50% or more

7 states at
35%-40%

(Flores, Barclay 2015)

Gains across the states have

occurred most recently
District of Columbia
Vermont
Hawaii
Massachusettes
New Jersey
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
California
Washington
Maine
Oregon
Wisconsin
Colorado
Connecticut
Minnesota
Delaware
New Hampshire
Illinois
Nevada
Iowa
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Florida
Michigan
South Dakota
Arizona
Virginia
Montana
Missouri
Ohio
Alaska
Indiana
Nebraska
Kansas
North Dakota
North Carolina
Texas
Georgia
Idaho
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Wyoming
Louisiana
Utah
West Virginia
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Mississippi
Alabama

2014 2016
2004 2012

By 2016, we estimate:

39 states with 50% or more support

Of the four states under question
at the U.S. Supreme Court:
MI: 60%, OH: 57%,
KY: 48%, TN: 45%
Estimates for 2016 are projections
based on the trend.

10

20

30

40
50
60
Percent in Favor

70

80

90

100

(Flores, Barclay 2015)

Attitudes change faster when

states legalize marriage
80
70
Marriage States

60
50

Accelerate

Average Support for

40
Marriage Equality

In 2004, there
was a bump in
support in
Massachusetts,
which became
the first state to
allow same-sex
marriage.

Bump

30

Non-Marriage States

20
10

94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16

19

19

92

Since then, the

rate of change
in attitudes has
accelerated in
marriage states,
compared to
non-marriage
states.
(Flores, Barclay 2015)

Flores, Andrew R. and Sco; Barclay. Trends in Public Support for

Marriage for Same-sex Couples by State: 2004-2014. Los Angeles,
CA: The Williams Ins@tute.

Flores, Andrew. 2014. Na*onal Trends in Public Opinion on LGBT
Rights in the United States. Los Angeles, CA: The Williams Ins@tute.

Lax, Jerey R. and Jus@n H. Phillips. 2009. How Should We
Es@mate Public Opinion in the States? American Journal of
Poli*cal Science 53(1): 107-121.