Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
This report outlines four major developments in the municipal bond market
and discusses the impact they have hadand are likely to have in the
futurefor municipal bond investors and their advisors.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Four major developments have influenced the municipal bond market recently, and all have implications for investors.
First, the demise of municipal insurers has reduced the proportion of prime-rate bonds relative to the total market
and removed an important level of safety for investors.
Second, federal stimulus initiatives, including Build America Bonds and fiscal relief, are helping to shore up
municipal budgets and fuel a bond rally.
Third, record demand for municipal bond funds, including strong participation from retail investors, has removed
many of the markets pricing distortions and caused some investor opportunities to mitigate. Nevertheless,
compensation investors receive for bearing credit risk remains relatively high, especially relative to pre-crisis
levels. We believe investors have rediscovered the need for low-volatility bonds within their asset allocation
strategies, and fewer distortions should make long-term allocations easier to determine.
Fourth, municipal budgets may continue to face significant pressures through 2010 and beyond. We recommend
investors stay vigilant and prudent, since municipal budgets may continue to face significant pressures.
We recommend being very selective about choosing municipal bonds, favoring larger issues that have more
resources to address budgetary pressures and those that offer greater liquidity. Additionally, we recommend
maintaining broad diversification across geographies and sectors. The ongoing surveillance of credits is important, so
investors cant simply set it and forget it.
CONTRIBUTORS
Philip G. Condon, managing director, head of municipal bond portfolio management
Ashton P. Goodfield, CFA, managing director, head of municipal bond trading
Carol L. Flynn, CFA, managing director, head of municipal bond research team
Rebecca Flinn, director, municipal bond portfolio manager
Anthony Parish, vice president, fixed-income product specialist
INTRODUCTION
INSURERS
to only 3% in 1980.1
market and the impact they have had for municipal bond
insurers.
opportunities.
However, in 2007 and 2008, the financial strength of
opportunities.
Fitch
Caa2
CC
Aa2
AAA
AA
Caa2
CC
Aa3
AAA
AA
Baa1
Ca
Aa1
AAA
NR
Ba1
BBB-
NR
NR
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, "Municipal Bond Insurers Current Rating Status & Timeline of Developments, October 13, 2009.
DEMISE OF INSURERS
IMPLICATIONS FOR MUNICIPAL INVESTORS
We anticipate reduced supply and premium
could arise.
We believe there will be an enhanced emphasis
on credit research.
We see an enhanced need for ongoing monitoring
of issuer fundamentals.
the issuers.
financial health.
package.6
income, making these bonds more attractive to taxexempt investors due to their relatively higher coupons.
Second, in 2009 municipalities have often chosen to
issue BABs in lieu of traditional municipal debt, and this
is serving to reduce the new supply of tax-exempt debt
coming to market.
FEDERAL STIMULUS
IMPLICATIONS FOR MUNICIPAL INVESTORS
We believe BABs effect is positive, bringing new
credits are kept the same as they are now, the federal
investment strategy.
history.
16 0 %
186.06% on 12/18/08
12 0 %
85.93% on
11/25/09
80%
40%
0%
10 / 7/ 0 4
4 / 7/ 0 5
10 / 7/ 0 5
4 / 7/ 0 6
10 / 7/ 0 6
4 / 7/ 0 7
10 / 7/ 0 7
4 / 7/ 0 8
10 / 7/ 0 8
4 / 7/ 0 9
10 / 7/ 0 9
500
Basis points
400
231 bps on
11/25/09
300
200
10 0
0
Oct-04
A pr- 0 5
Oct-05
A pr- 0 6
Oct-06
A pr- 0 7
Oct-07
A pr- 0 8
Oct-08
A pr- 0 9
Oct-09
Source: Municipal Market Data and DWS Investments, as of 11/25/09. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This data is for
illustrative purposes and does not represent any DWS fund. Yield ratios and yield spreads may vary over other time periods.
RECORD-SETTING DEMAND
IMPLICATIONS FOR MUNICIPAL INVESTORS
PRESSURE
State and local tax revenues are highly correlated with
terms.6
Local
7%
4%
1%
-2%
-5%
-8%
-11%
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
Income tax
Sales tax
Property tax
8%
4%
0%
-4%
-8%
-12%
-16%
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
Sources: US Census Bureau (tax revenue) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP price index), as of 6/30/09. Shows four-quarter average of percent
change in real tax revenue. No adjustments were made for legislative changes..
pressures.
greater liquidity.
We recommend maintaining broad diversification
10
CONCLUSION
Investors seeking to help protect their investment principal should be willing to shift their
allocations as market conditions dictate. Above all, diversification and robust research
will be important contributors to the realization of successful investment strategies. Of
course, diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss.
1Source:
11
CONTRIBUTORS
Philip G. Condon, managing director, is head of municipal bond portfolio management for retail and tax-exempt
advisory clients. He joined the firm in 1983 after seven years of experience as a fixed-income analyst for Connecticut
General Life Insurance Company (CIGNA) and an analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and initially served
as director of the municipal bond department and director of the DWS municipal bond research group. He received a
bachelors degree and a masters in business administration from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
Ashton P. Goodfield, CFA, managing director, is head of municipal bond trading and co-lead portfolio manager of
DWS Managed Municipal Bond Fund, DWS Short-Term Municipal Bond Fund, DWS New York Tax-Free Income
Fund and DWS Intermediate Tax/AMT Free Fund. She joined the firm in 1986, managing municipal assets for
individuals, institutions and mutual funds. From 1990 through 2000, she served on the Finance Advisory Board of the
Commonwealth of Massachusetts. She received a bachelors degree from Duke University.
Carol L. Flynn, CFA, managing director, is head of the municipal bond research team, and is responsible for
analyzing municipal securities in the higher education, project finance, housing and bond insurance sectors. She
joined the firm in 1994 as a municipal bond research analyst after four years of experience as a fixed-income
investment manager responsible for credit analysis of municipal bonds and corporate private placements and public
bonds at The Travelers. She received a bachelors degree from Duke University and a masters in business
administration from the University of Connecticut.
Rebecca Flinn, director, is a portfolio manager for DWS Strategic High Yield Tax-Free Fund, DWS Massachusetts
Tax-Free Fund and DWS Strategic Municipal Income Trust. She joined the firm in 1986 after one year of experience
as a transfer agent for Paine Webber Properties, Inc. She received a bachelors degree from the University of
Redlands, California.
Anthony Parish, vice president, is a fixed-income product specialist. He joined the firm in 2008 after seven years of
experience as a fixed-income product specialist and head of product analysis at Oppenheimer Funds and a product
development specialist at Credit Suisse Asset Management. He received a masters in business administration from
Fordham University.
12
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The opinions and forecasts expressed herein by the fund
managers do not necessarily reflect those of DWS Investments, are as of 12/9/09 and may not come to pass.
OBTAIN A PROSPECTUS
To obtain a summary prospectus, if available, or prospectus, download one from www.dwsinvestments.com, talk to your financial representative or call [phone number]. We advise you to carefully
consider the products objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. The summary
prospectus and prospectus contain this and other important information about the investment product.
Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.
2009 DWS Investments Distributors, Inc. All rights reserved. R-14547-2 (12/09) MUNIS-WHITE