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7. Keep in mind that this workbook uses the (constant) PERCENT OF SALES method for
constructing the Pro Formas. There are MANY ways in which this method can be adjusted, and
you may want to consider some of those approaches. The text, along with the CD-ROM that
comes with the Brigham/Ehrhardt text discuss and illustrate these methods in more detail.
8. Remember that this is a learning process, and with relatively complex spreadsheets, much of
the learning is by trial and error. In most cases, there is no one "perfect" solution.
If you have suggestions for making this workbook better, please let me know.
INPUT DATA:
Forecasted sales growth:
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
AFN financing percentages:
Notes payable
Long-term bonds
Common stock
Debt costs:
Notes payable
Long-term bonds
Tax rate
WACC
Dividend payout ratio
INPUT DATA
Long-Term Growth (gn) =
Long-Term WACC =
KEY OUTPUT:
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
50.0%
50.0%
0.0%
12.0%
12.0%
40.0%
11.0%
20.0%
3.00%
10.00%
1999 AFN
2000 AFN
2001 AFN
2002 AFN
2003 AFN
Cumulative AFN
$6.1
$7.2
$8.6
$10.1
$11.9
$43.9
Ratios:
2002
Cur
2.5
PM
5.0%
TATO
1.1
ROA
5.6%
Debt
34.7%
ROE
8.6%
Intrinsic Price/Share =
2003
2004
2.1
4.7%
1.1
5.3%
39.0%
8.6%
1.9
4.5%
1.1
5.0%
43.0%
8.7%
$ 10.37
2005
2006
2007
1.7
4.2%
1.1
4.7%
46.7%
8.8%
1.6
4.0%
1.1
4.5%
50.0%
8.9%
1.5
3.8%
1.1
4.2%
53.2%
9.1%
Final
2003
$92.0
82.0
$10.0
2.7
$7.3
2.9
$4.4
$0.9
$3.5
Initial
2004
$105.8
94.3
$11.5
2.7
$8.8
3.5
$5.3
$1.1
$4.2
Final
2004
$105.8
94.3
$11.5
3.6
$7.9
3.2
$4.7
$0.9
$3.8
PROJECTED
Initial
2005
$121.7
108.4
$13.2
3.6
$9.6
3.9
$5.8
$1.2
$4.6
Final
2003
Initial
2004
Final
2004
PROJECTED
Initial
2005
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
4.6
13.8
18.4
36.8
46.0
82.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
4.6
13.8
18.4
36.8
46.0
82.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5.3
15.9
21.2
42.3
52.9
95.2
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5.3
15.9
21.2
42.3
52.9
95.2
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
6.1
18.3
24.3
48.7
60.8
109.5
Accounts payable
Other ST Liabilities
Notes payable
Accruals
Total current liab
Other LT Liabilities
Long-term bonds
Total debt
Common stock
Retained earnings
Total common equity
Total liabs & equity
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
9.2
5.0
14.2
12.0
26.2
20.0
30.8
50.8
77.0
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
9.2
8.1
17.3
15.1
32.3
20.0
30.5
50.5
82.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
10.6
8.1
18.6
15.1
33.7
20.0
34.7
54.7
88.4
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
10.6
11.7
22.3
18.7
40.9
20.0
34.3
54.3
95.2
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
12.2
11.7
23.8
18.7
42.5
20.0
38.9
58.9
101.4
$
$
$
$
$
Initial
2003
5.8
2.9
2.9
5.8
$
$
$
$
$
Final
2003
6.1
3.1
3.1
6.1
$
$
$
$
$
Initial
2004
6.8
3.4
3.4
6.8
$
$
$
$
$
Final
2004
7.2
3.6
3.6
7.2
$
$
$
$
$
Initial
2005
8.1
4.0
4.0
8.1
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ROJECTED
Final
2005
$121.7
108.4
$13.2
4.6
$8.6
3.4
$5.2
$1.0
$4.1
Initial
2006
$139.9
124.7
$15.2
4.6
$10.6
4.2
$6.4
$1.3
$5.1
Final
2006
$139.9
124.7
$15.2
5.8
$9.4
3.7
$5.6
$1.1
$4.5
Initial
2007
$160.9
143.4
$17.5
5.8
$11.7
4.7
$7.0
$1.4
$5.6
Final
2007
$160.9
143.4
$17.5
7.3
$10.2
4.1
$6.1
$1.2
$4.9
Final
2005
Initial
2006
Final
2006
Initial
2007
Final
2007
ROJECTED
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
6.1
18.3
24.3
48.7
60.8
109.5
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
7.0
21.0
28.0
56.0
70.0
125.9
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
7.0
21.0
28.0
56.0
70.0
125.9
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
8.0
24.1
32.2
64.4
80.5
144.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
8.0
24.1
32.2
64.4
80.5
144.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
12.2
16.0
28.1
23.0
51.1
20.0
38.4
58.4
109.5
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
14.0
16.0
30.0
23.0
52.9
20.0
43.5
63.5
116.4
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
14.0
21.0
35.0
28.0
63.0
20.0
42.9
62.9
125.9
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
16.1
21.0
37.1
28.0
65.1
20.0
48.5
68.5
133.6
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
16.1
27.0
43.0
34.0
77.0
20.0
47.8
67.8
144.8
$
$
$
$
$
Final
2005
8.6
4.3
4.3
8.6
$
$
$
$
$
Initial
2006
9.5
4.8
4.8
9.5
$
$
$
$
$
Final
2006
10.1
5.1
5.1
10.1
$
$
$
$
$
Initial
2007
11.2
5.6
5.6
11.2
$
$
$
$
$
Final
2007
11.9
5.9
5.9
11.9
TheDrydenPressitemsandderiveditemscopyright 1999byTheDrydenPress
Timeline
Year
EBIT
Tax Rate
NOPAT
NOWC
Net Fixed Assets
Net Invest in OP Capital
Long-Term Growth
Initial FCFs
Continuing Value
Total FCFs
PV of FCFs
Total PF of FCFs
+ Mkt Securities
Total Firm Value
- Bk Value of Debt
Value of Equity
# Shrs Outstanding
Price/Share =
ACTUAL
PROJECTED
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
$
8.70 $ 10.01 $ 11.51 $ 13.23 $ 15.22 $ 17.50
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
$
5.22 $
6.00 $
6.90 $
7.94 $
9.13 $ 10.50
$
$
$
$
$
$
120.74
120.74
17.00
104
10
10.37
6.00
6.90
7.94
9.13
$
$
6.00
5.41
$
$
6.90
5.60
$
$
7.94
5.80
$
$
9.13
6.01
$ 10.50
$ 154.49
$ 164.99
$ 97.91
This value is also repeated on the Key Input & Output Sheet
Continuing Value of
Firm
6
2008
3.00%
10.81
Debt-to-Assets Ratio
at Different Growth Rates
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2002
2003
2004
10% Growth
2005
15% Growth
2006
2007
20% Growth
TheDrydenPressitemsandderiveditemscopyright 1999byTheDrydenPress