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Stuart HOLLAND,
Fellow of the Centre for Contemporary European Studies,
Sussex University
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(depending on rates of consumption and any price reductions in bilateral oil deals). Compared with a deficit in 1964 which amounted
to less than one and a half per cent of national product, it is clear that
we cobld approach early thirties levels of unemployment through government-imposed deflation to cut back on imports unless we transform our
management \of the economy. The OECD made no bones about the
consequences in commenting in December last year that the possibility
of social and political tensions emerging from real or imaginary changes
in the distribution of income cannot be ignored.2
Beyond Keynesian Demand Management.
The higher cost of oil will give a vicious twist to the rampant
inflationary spiral. On retail prices this broke ingloriously through the
ten per cent barrier last year. Major lay-offs and redundancies are
on the cards for those firms which survive the crisis. But many smaller
firms face bankruptcy through a zero or negative growth-rate so long
as their costs rise through inflation. Their employees will face not just
short-time or temporary lay-offs but quasi-permanent unemployment.
Such a crisis should be sufficient to cause sleepless nights for the
Treasury Keynesians. Devaluation offers no easy bolt-hole. A 20 per
cent devaluation since the Smithsonian Agreements has both accelerated
inflation and failed to reverse the payments deficit. Granted the raised
price of oil imports, there would be a strong case for revaluation if only
we had some means of raising exports other than relying on the
exchange rate.
In December 1973 The Times offered its personal solution to the
crisis by recommending a ten year investment programme of 20,000
millions in British industry. This was to be implemented through a
National Investment Board which would enter into agreements with
individual firms and industries, raising money which would be lent to
industry through a new government bond and taxati0n.s
In itself this amounted to a severe indictment of the Keynesian
orthodoxies that if demand is properly managed by indirect means,
direct intervention in supply is unnecessary. The Times should be
congratulated for the similar rationale behind their proposals and
Labours proposed National Enterprise Board, and Planning Agreements
with leading companies. However, despite the virtual identity in name
between their National Investment Board and Labours National Enterprise Board, the difference between The Times and Labours proposals
remains crucial.
First, The Times assumes that private enterprise has failed the
country through llack of finance for investment. But this is a short2 OECD: Economic Outlook, December 1973. The OECD judgement preceded the major
increase in oil prices frum 1st January 1974.
3 Should we invest f#),ooOm to modedse British industry?, The Times, 19th December
1973.
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in the already developed areas because not enough supplier firms are
available in the regions. 14
But the specific location of new public enterprise in manufacturing
can be controlled in such a way that new jobs in pharmaceuticals,
engineering or electronics are brought to particular localities such as
Clydeside, Ebbw Vale or Shotton. Regional planning based on the
advanced programmes of leading companies can also ensure that a high
degree of linkage is assured between the incoming public enterprise and
private enterprise firms. This does not mean to say that the regions
should be condemned to the status of branch plant economies. Further
linkages can also be promoted -because the information between firms
the big league
and industries is available in advance-between
incomers and medium and small league locals, with a considerable
devolution of initiative on such linkage being given to new regional
development agencies. 1s
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It also gives the big holding companies certain knowlledge of the size,
skllls and suitability of the existing labour force for the jobs which
they plan to bring into the company. All of this is mutually agreed
with the government through a formalised forward planning procedure.
The governments advance knowledge of the State Holdings forthcoming investment, through its Planning Agreements, ensures that the
planners have leverage on the holdings in the case of any recalcitrance.
These are the kinds of gains through extensive new public enterprise
which Labour could be implementing in government. The more companies it quickly took into public ownership, and the more effectively it
used them to reinforce the Planning Agreements, the greater the results
it could deliver before its first parliamentary term was out. Granted
the scale of the current crisis, it could not promise in advance to abolish
minor redundancies within five years. But it could cope effectively with
the problems which may be posed in major redundancies such as the
laying off of 8,000 workers in a leading multi-national car firm, the
major closures which in the last analysis may prove justifiable in some
steel plants, and in other areas of employment decline. It could also
offset the temporary problems facing para-chemical producers using
derivatives from higher cost oil during the period before we can draw
on North and Celtic Sea reserves. North Sea oil is not heavy enough
to substitute the chemical base for imported oil, but will reduce the
direct import bill for total oil imports. In the longer run the government
could cope as effectively with minor redundancies and pockets of persistent unemployment of the kind which has brought such hardship to
the middle-aged worker with little hope of a future decent job.
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The same was true of the instructions to the State Holding Company
IRI to take a controlling shareholding in three of the largest food
producing companies, threatened by US takeover. The government
wanted their production expanded, using southern Italian foodstuffs
instead of the imported foodstuffs which the American companies planned mainly to use. It also required that all of the new plant be located
in Southern Italy. This was fulfilled by the IRI Holding, which went
on to integrate the sales of the processed foods with a new supermarket
chain which it was expanding profitably after the takeover of two failing
private concerns. The type of food processed, the manner of canning,
packaging and distribution was all left to the company.
There are many other Italian examples of this strategy-tactics distinction, including joint ventures with foreign multi-national companies,
and entirely new initiatives in electrical and nuclear engineering, passenger aircraft, and electronics.
The virtues of the distinction can ,be seen by applying them to the
Planning Agreements system in Labours Programme. By this system
leading public and private enterprises would be obliged to submit their
corporate programmes to the government in advance for assessment of
compatibility with the new planning objectives - investment and export
expansion, new jobs in problem regions, etc.
This means bringing the management teams into Whitehall and
bargaining out the pros and cons of the companies and the governments case. The general initiative on the company programmes lies
with companies themselves, in view of market opportunities, rather than
with the government.
There is no reason why workers in large private and public enterprises should not be given the option of participating in this bargaining
through the Planning Agreements. Again, this need not undermine
traditional bargaining procedures in the companies, if this is what the
workers and unions prefer to extended workers control. If the unions
are in major disagreement with the management (whether public or
private enterprise), they can come separately to Whitehall and state
their separate case.
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