Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
HUAMANGA
FACULTAD DE INGENIERA DE MINAS, GEOLOGA Y
CIVIL
ESCUELA DE FORMACIN PROFESIONAL DE
INGENIERA CIVIL
TRABAJO ENCARGADO N 04
ESTADSTICA Y PROBABILIDADES
: (ES-241)
DOCENTE
ALUMNO
:Ruddy.xDxD@gmail.com
AYACUCHO PER
2010
I)
P ( A 1 / A 2 )=
P( A1 A2)
P( A2)
Demostracin :
i=1
A 1 / j=1
n
P ( 2 A i ) =P ( A 1 ) P ( i1 A2 j )
i=1
P ( A 1 A 2 )=P ( A 1 ) P ( A 1 / A 2 )
P ( A1 A2 )
P ( A1 )
=P ( A1 / A2 )
P ( A 1 / A 2 )=
1.2
P( A1 A2)
P( A1)
; l. q . q . d .
P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B ) .
Demostracin .
( A B )
i B= A ( B A ) , aplicando la funcin de probabilidad y el teoma04
P ( B ) =P ( A )+ P ( B A )
ii B=( A B ) ( B A ) , aplicando la funcin de probabilidad
P ( B ) =P ( A B ) + P ( B A )
P ( BA )=P ( B )P ( A B ) , reemplezando en ( ) se tiene
P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B )P ( A B ) ; l . q . q . d .
1.3
P ( A 1 A2 A 3 ) =P ( A 1) + P ( A 2 )+ P ( A 3 )P ( A1 A 2 )P ( A2 A3 ) P ( A 1 A3 )
+ P ( A 1 A 2 A3 ) .
Demostracin .
Por el teorema de la adicin generalizada:
i=1
P ( A 1 A2 A 3 ) = P ( A i ) P ( Ai A j ) + P [ 3 A i ]
i=1
i=1
P ( A 1 A2 A 3 ) =P ( A 1) + P ( A 2 )+ P ( A 3 )P ( A1 A 2 )P ( A2 A3 ) P ( A 1 A3 )
+ P ( A 1 A 2 A3 ) . ; l. q . q . d
1.4
P ( A C )=1P ( A ) y P ( A )=1P ( AC )
Demostracin
AC
Si:
A A C =, entonces P ( A A C )=P ( )
P ( A A C )=P ( A ) + P ( A C ) =P ( )
P ( A )+ P ( A C )=1
P ( A C )=1P ( A )
P ( A )=1P ( AC ) , l .q .q . d .
1.5
P ( A 1 / A 2 )=
P( A1 A2)
P( A2)
Entonces despajando
; P ( A 2 ) >0.
P ( A 1 A 2 ) nos quedara de la siguiente
manera:
1.6
P ( A 2 / A 1 )=P ( A2 )
Entonces aplicando la propiedad de la multiplicacin se tiene:
P ( D )= P( Ai )x P ( D / A i )
i=1
Demostracin
A1
A2
An
D
i i=1 n A i=
ii A i A j= , i j
D=( A 1 D ) ( A2 D ) ( An D )
Aplicando la funcin de probabilidad
P ( D )=P [ ( A 1 D ) ( A 2 D ) ( A n D ) ]
P ( D )=P ( ( A1 D ) ) + P ( ( A 2 D ) ) ++ P( ( A n D ))
P ( D )=P ( A 1 ) xP ( D / A 1 )+ P ( A 2 ) xP ( D / A 2) + + P ( A n ) xP ( D/ A n )
n
P ( D )= P( Ai ) x P ( D / A i ) ; l . q . q . d .
i=1
1.8
P ( A K / D )=
P( A K ) xP ( D / A K )
n
P( Ai )x P ( D/ A i )
i=1
Ai
Demostracin
P ( A K / D )=
P( Ak D)
P ( D)
P( A K ) xP ( D/ A K )
;l.q. q.d
P (A i )x P ( D/ Ai )
i=1
365!
63
=4 . 922 10
( 36525 ) !
P (A ) =
c
4 . 922 10
=0 . 4313
64
1 .141 10
P ( A )=1/ 4
P ( B ) =1/3
Nos pide:
( 14 )( 13 )= 121 =0.8333
P ( A B ) =P ( A ) . P ( B ) =
P ( A B ) . P ( A B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B)
1 1 1
+
4 3 12
1
=0.50
2
III-c) Ninguno viva al cabo de 10 aos
Nos pide:
P ( A B)
1
P ( A )=1P ( A ) =1 =3/4
4
1
P ( B ) =1P ( B )=1 =2/3
3
P ( A B ) ; como son independientes :
( 34 ) .( 23 )= 12 =0.50
P ( A B ) =P ( A ) . P ( B ) =
( 34 )( 13 )= 14 =0.25
P ( A B)=
P ( MA ) =
100 1
=
300 3
P ( MB )=
200 2
=
300 3
Entonces
= {300 piezas} = N + Q
P (N M)=5%
P (Q M)=6%
Diagrama de Venn:
P (N )
P(M N )
P( M Q)
+P (Q)
P(N )
P (Q)
P ( M N ) + P( M Q)
P ( N ) P( M N )
P (N|M) = P ( N ) P ( M |N ) + P ( Q ) P(M Q)
Utilizando el teorema de la multiplicacin tenemos:
P(M N)
= 0.4545
P ( A )=0.2
P (C )=0.3
P ( L ) =0.5
a) Probabilidad de que sea de Arquitectura y que haya terminado la carrera.
P (T A )=P ( A ) . P
P ( A) . P (
T
)
A
( TA )= P ( A ) T + P ( C ) P T + P ( L) P( T )
(A)
(C )
L
( 0.2 ) ( 0.05)
1
= =0.0714
14
( 0.2 ) ( 0.05 ) + ( 0.3 )( 0.1 ) + ( 0.5 ) (0.2)
E=
( E 1 U E 2) E 7
P ( E )=P[(E 1 U E2 ) E 7 ]
P ( E )=P ( E1 U E 2 ) P ( E7 )
E7
P ( E )=[ P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) P ( E 1 E 2) ] P )
E1
P ( E )=[ p+ p pp ]p
P ( E )=[ 2 p p2 ] p
P ( E )=2 p 2 p3
ii.
F
( 3 F 4)U ( F 5 F 6 )
F=
F
( 3 F 4)U ( F 4 F 5 )
P ( F ) =P
F
F
( 3 F 4 ) ( F 5 F 6 )
( 3 F 4)+ P ( F 5 F 6 )P
P ( F ) =P
F
( 3 F 4 )P ( F 5 F 6 )
P ( F )=P ( F 3 )( F 4)+ P ( F 5 )P ( F 6 )P
F
( 3)P ( F 4 )P (F5 )P(F 6 )
P ( F )=P ( F 3 )( F 4)+ P ( F 5 )P ( F 6 )P
P ( F )= pp+ pp pppp
P ( F )=2 p2 p 4
iii.
IR=EUF
P ( IR )=P ( EUF )
P ( IR )=P ( E ) + P ( F ) P ( E F )
P ( IR )=P ( E ) + P ( F ) P ( E )P ( F )
P ( IR )=( 2 p2 p3 ) (2 p2 p 4)( 2 p 2p 3 ) ( 2 p2 p 4 )
P ( IR )=2 p2 p3 +2 p 3( 4 p4 2 p6 2 p5 + p7 )
P ( IR )=4 p2 + p 3 p4 4 p 4 p 62 p 5 p7
P ( IR )= p7 +2 p 6+ 2 p3 5 p 4 p3 + 4 p2
iv.
ID=IR RD
P ( ID )=P ( IR RD )
P ( ID )=P ( IR )P ( RD )
7
6
4
3
2
P ( ID )=( p +2 p 5 p p + 4 p )p
P ( ID )=p 8 +2 p6 5 p 5 p4 + 4 p3
Interpretacin estocstica: la probabilidad del evento que la corriente
pase de I a D
Es : p 8+ 2 p6 5 p5 p 4 + 4 p 3