Documente Academic
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Current Market
Net trade
P re v.
- 1M
Y TD
Foreign
+1.6
+5.6
- 1.8
- 6.3%
Retail
- 0.6
- 23.5
- 15.8
- 0.3%
Institutes
- 1.6
+11.7
+12.8
Proprietary
+0.6
+6.3
+4.9
Ma rke t da ta
Close
SET Index
1,566.9
- 0.2%
Turnover (Bt m)
46,892
14,696
Stoc k Gainers
453
stoc ks
Stoc k Losers
401
stoc ks
(index)
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
Jan-14
(index)
650
600
550
500
450
Jul-14
Jan-15
Market Valuation
TOP STORIES
Market data
Small caps up in line with big caps: The Thai equity market has rebounded over
the past three weeks, bringing up both big and small caps. The SET 50 Index
rose 4.7% versus our small-cap Basket indexs (55 stocks) 4.3%. Meanwhile,
our top-five picks in The Basket bounced back to outperform both big and small
caps, rising 7.5% over the past three weeks, led by construction stocks
SEAFCO Pcl (SEAFCO), which is up 23.7%, and Ch. Karnchang (CK), up 6.4%
after a sharp drop in construction stock share prices in March.
PE (x)
15.6
13.7
12.0
31.7
13.3
14.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.4
10.0
9.3
P/BV (x)
2.2
2.0
1.8
Yield (%)
3.2
3.6
4.0
ROE (%)
14.9
15.5
16.2
0.7
0.6
0.5
Major Indices
While we see the HEMRAJ deal as long-term accretive, near-term EPS postdeal is worse than we expected. We now forecast WHA's fully-diluted post-deal
EPS to be below the pre-acquisition one in 2015-16F. At a 26x 2015F PE after
the 25% MTD share-price surge, we view WHA shares as fully valued.
Downgrading to SELL with a new Bt34 TP.
Results Comment
P.6-8
17,826 - 279.5
- 1.5%
Close
Dow Jones
NASDAQ
4,932
- 76.0
- 1.5%
FTSE
6,995
- 65.8
- 0.9%
SHCOMP (China)
4,287
92.5
2.2%
Hang Seng
27,653
- 86.6
- 0.3%
FTSSI (Singapore)
3,525
- 6.4
- 0.2%
KOSPI
2,144
3.6
0.2%
JCI (Indonesia)
5,411
- 10.1 - 0.2%
MSCI Asia
140
- 0.4
- 0.3%
MSCI Asia x JP
634
- 1.5
- 0.2%
TISCO (BUY)
TMB (HOLD)
Dollar index
KKP (BUY)
Close
97.5
0.1
0.1%
Bt/US$
32.4
0.0
- 0.1%
100JPY/US$
118.7
- 0.3
- 0.3%
2.7
0.0
- 0.4%
1.9
0.0
- 1.3%
Com m odities
Close
NYMEX (US$/bbl)
55.7
- 1.0
- 1.7%
63.5
- 0.5
- 0.8%
DUBAI (US$/bbl)
61.2
0.4
0.6%
597.0
4.0
0.7%
7.6
0.0
0.0%
1,203.1
5.1
0.4%
55.7
1.1
2.0%
842.0
35.0
Ethylene- Naphtha
807.0
10.0
1.3%
PX- Naphtha
362.0
50.0
16.0%
BZ- Naphtha
289.5
32.5
12.6%
Steel- HRC
370.0
- 10.0
- 2.6%
1,387
3.0
0.2%
Rubber TOCOM
1,670
- 7.4
- 0.4%
13.2
- 0.1
- 1.0%
Raw Sugar**
White Sugar**
4.3%
16.9
- 0.2 - 1.3%
Source: Thanachart , Bloomberg, Datastream, Banpu
Note: * Weekly data
Please note that due to the interest of timeliness, this product was not edited.
20 April 2015
The Basket
SET Index : 1,566.85 , 4.79% 3 weeks
Thanachart Securities
Siriporn Arunothai
And Thanachart Research Team
662 617 4900
EPS gw
16F
Norm P/E
15F
16F
Yield
15F
(%)
(Bt)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(x)
(x)
BEAUTY TB
41.3
52.0
26.1
27.4
24.7
24.8
19.9
3.6
CK TB
25.8
35.0
35.9
32.2
34.8
26.8
19.9
1.5
ICHI TB
21.7
27.0
24.4
50.3
15.4
17.0
14.8
2.3
SAWAD TB
40.5
42.0
3.7
42.2
49.9
23.7
15.8
1.7
SEAFCO TB
12.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
22.8
10.2
8.3
3.9
Th e Basket
Index re l to SET
(Index)
1,400
(%)
8
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
(2 )
800
4.4
3.8
4.6
YTD
Jul-14
Jan-15
21.0
ESS O
SEA FCO
SET50
2.8
2.3
1.2
1.4
1.2
-1W
(%) 0
SET
TTCL
28.6
16.7
WHA
8.1
14.5
SPCG
4.6
ESS O
BCP
4.4
SEA FCO
BCH
4.3
THCOM
6.7
STEC
4.1
BCP
6.0
14.4
7.1
KBS
4.0
KBS
5.2
SIRI
3.6
DCC
4.7
JAS
2.7
TICON
4.7
(%)
10
20
30
43.0
HEMRA J
10.7
The
Basket
1.1
-1M
(4 )
Jan-14
15F
(Bt)
Up
side
Code
TP
Price Price
(%)
20
40
OFM
17.2
MTL S
HEMRA J
17.2
ESS O
62.7
55.7
47.4
13.7
TTCL
43.0
13.7
SEA FCO
41.2
CENTE L
13.0
WHA
MAJOR
12.5
OFM
DCC
WHA
38.6
29.9
SIRI
10.4
AP
27.7
SEA FCO
10.1
GUNKUL
24.6
AP
(%)
BEA UTY
7.8
0
20
40
60
(%)
22.2
0
50
100
20 APRIL 2015
2014A
2015F
2016F
2017F
Sales
19,575
24,667
31,417
37,601
Net profit
460
1,110
1,340
1,411
Norm profit
497
1,110
1,340
1,411
0.9
2.0
2.4
2.5
(45.1)
123.5
20.6
5.3
Norm PE (x)
38.0
17.0
14.1
13.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
11.8
53.7
14.7
12.2
P/BV (x)
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.5
1.8
2.9
3.5
3.7
ROE (%)
9.4
19.7
21.1
20.0
90.3
20.7
36.6
47.3
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
766
1,282
905
918
Net profit
28
83
(20)
30
EPS (Bt)
0.59
0.26
(0.06)
0.08
(88.8)
(55.9)
neg
neg
8.7
19.8
neg
64.4
37.8
28.7
23.5
neg
P/BV (x)
0.4
2.2
2.4
2.6
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
ROE (%)
4.7
12.1
(2.7)
4.2
65.7
55.6
59.4
59.3
65%
Existing business
Production & distribution
Waste to Energy
of leather products
35%
LAWI
ZW
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
If CWT can sign a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Provincial
Electricity Authority (PEA) to sell all 40MW of electricity as it plans,
management expects utility earnings contribution to account for 85-90% of
CWTs total earnings with the rest coming from its existing business in
2018.
THANACHART SECURITIES
20 APRIL 2015
THANACHART SECURITIES
SELL
TP: Bt 34.00
Transfer of coverage
Downside : 13.9%
20 APRIL 2015
Thanachart Securities
RATA LIMSUTHIWANPOOM
662 617 4900
rata.lim@thanachartsec.co.th
COMPANY VALUATION
Y/E Dec (Bt m)
2014A
2015F
2016F
2017F
4,888
12,382
11,861
12,381
979
3,890
4,573
3,458
Consensus NP
1,812
1,837
2,158
114.8
149.0
60.2
Sales
Net profit
Norm profit
979
1,966
2,786
3,497
1,966
2,786
3,497
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
1.5
1.9
2.4
(33.8)
64.8
26.8
25.5
Norm PE (x)
42.4
25.7
20.3
16.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
33.8
20.3
19.1
18.0
P/BV (x)
9.3
2.7
2.4
2.2
0.0
2.1
3.2
3.1
22.7
15.6
12.5
14.2
217.6
116.7
92.2
88.7
ROE (%)
Net D/E (%)
PRICE PERFORMANCE
(Bt/shr)
WHA
(%)
50
30
40
20
30
10
20
10
(10)
0
Apr -14
Aug -14
Dec-14
(20)
Apr -15
COMPANY INFORMATION
39.50
1,603.9
1,314.4
24.5
3.2
39.75/23.74
Industrial Estate
WHA Holding Co Ltd 25.1%
Results Comment
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
3,991
3,894
4,045
4,012
3,702
3,702
(8)
(7)
16,051
23
Interest expense
1,812
1,824
1,745
1,634
1,502
Interest expense
1,502
(8)
(17)
6,943
22
2,179
2,069
2,300
2,378
2,201
2,201
(7)
9,107
24
859
640
916
1,150
1,244
1,244
45
4,273
29
3,038
2,709
3,215
3,528
3,445
3,445
(2)
13
13,380
26
1,523
1,615
1,605
1,542
1,732
1,515
1,094
1,610
1,986
1,713
777
327
570
1,525
918
738
767
1,040
461
795
162
187
732
605
853
463
675
Equity income
Equity income
neg
neg
Minority interests
(10)
(11)
Minority interests
(11)
neg
neg
(25)
Extra items
Extra items
neg
neg
(4)
(2)
(6)
120
1,732
12
14
6,700
26
1,713
(14)
13
6,681
26
918
(40)
18
2,847
32
795
73
3,834
21
120
neg
1,763
767
16
675
46
3,067
22
(8)
43
Net profit
722
601
847
466
664
Net profit
664
43
(8)
3,042
22
722
601
847
466
664
664
43
(8)
3,042
22
PPP/share (Bt)
1.8
1.3
1.9
2.4
2.0
PPP/share (Bt)
2.0
(14)
12
7.4
26
EPS (Bt)
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.8
EPS (Bt)
0.8
43
(9)
3.1
22
0.9
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
43
(9)
3.1
22
BV/share (Bt)
42.9
42.0
42.7
43.6
44.4
BV/share (Bt)
44.4
42.7
44
1Q15
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
Gross loans and accrued interest
1Q14
11,020
2Q14
16,255
3Q14
12,874
4Q14
8,308
1Q15
9,997
56
11,076
55
16,310
46
12,920
8,308
9,997
198,946
195,268
189,067
185,918
182,320
Financial Ratios
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
(%)
3.6
1.7
(1.5)
(3.2)
(1.9)
3.6
(1.8)
(3.2)
(1.7)
(1.9)
(0.6)
7.6
3.4
(9.4)
(2.4)
(0.6)
8.2
(3.8)
(12.4)
(2.4)
44.9
Provisions
7,555
7,421
7,470
8,438
8,723
(52.8)
(63.0)
(1.8)
(16.9)
Net loans
191,391
187,846
181,597
177,480
173,596
(37.9)
(25.5)
43.1
25.6
8.2
5,266
5,161
4,919
5,111
5,024
26.9
30.8
29.3
24.4
25.0
Cost-to-income
50.1
59.6
49.9
43.7
50.3
3.5
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.7
1.57
0.67
1.21
3.30
2.03
Fixed assets
18,663
18,677
19,735
17,668
17,753
254,959
259,458
255,606
241,159
235,925
145,073
4,174
157,019
3,699
150,983
11,734
132,297
9,795
129,075
3,302
Credit cost
531
536
389
316
470
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
ROE
8.2
6.7
9.5
5.1
7.2
Loan-to-deposit
136.3
123.6
124.4
139.7
140.4
149,778
161,254
163,106
142,408
132,847
133.0
121.8
122.6
139.4
140.1
Borrow ings
51,003
43,878
36,837
42,772
46,986
NPLs (Bt m)
8,282
10,791
10,483
10,352
11,812
Other liabilities
18,070
18,867
19,647
19,062
18,447
NPL increase
999
2,509
(308)
(131)
1,460
154
155
161
210
212
NPL ratio
4.20
5.60
5.60
5.60
6.50
Shareholders' equity
35,954
35,303
35,855
36,707
37,434
Loan-loss-coverage ratio
91.2
68.8
71.3
81.5
73.9
254,959
259,458
255,606
241,159
235,925
CAR - total
13.3
13.7
14.8
15.2
15.4
Minority interest
THANACHART SECURITIES
Tisco Financial Group Pcl (TISCO TB) - BUY, Price Bt45.5, TP Bt52
Results Comment
TISCOs 1Q15 profits of Bt1.2bn, up 28% y-y but down 3% qq. Results were in-line as 1Q15 profits made up 25% of our
full-year forecast.
A strong growth of 28% y-y was driven by improving NIM,
higher non-interest income and falling provisions. Meanwhile,
earnings dropped 3% q-q due to lower investment gains and
higher provisions.
(consolidated)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
4,917
4,858
4,757
4,360
4,374
4,374
(11)
18,190
Interest expense
2,652
2,435
2,255
2,010
1,974
Interest expense
1,974
(2)
(26)
8,993
22
2,265
2,423
2,502
2,350
2,400
2,400
9,197
26
1,563
14
6,403
24
3,962
15,599
25
1,372
1,414
1,494
1,529
1,563
3,637
3,837
3,996
3,879
3,962
1,287
1,363
1,461
1,494
1,501
2,350
2,474
2,535
2,385
2,462
1,176
1,225
1,149
877
972
1,174
1,249
1,386
1,508
1,490
231
246
277
290
292
944
1,003
1,109
1,218
1,198
Minority interests
Extra items
(9)
-
(11)
(20)
16
-
(6)
-
1,501
17
5,928
25
2,462
9,672
25
972
11
(17)
3,784
26
(1)
27
5,887
25
26
1,177
25
(2)
27
4,710
25
neg
1,490
292
1,198
-
neg
(6)
Minority interests
Extra items
24
neg
neg
(27)
neg
neg
22
Net profit
935
992
1,089
1,234
1,192
Net profit
1,192
(3)
28
4,683
25
935
992
1,089
1,234
1,192
1,192
(3)
28
4,683
25
PPP/share (Bt)
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
3.1
PPP/share (Bt)
3.1
12.2
25
EPS (Bt)
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
EPS (Bt)
1.5
(3)
28
5.3
25
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
(3)
28
5.3
25
BV/share (Bt)
29.9
29.3
30.8
32.1
33.6
BV/share (Bt)
33.6
12
32.2
34
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
2Q14
30,539
3Q14
30,452
4Q14
39,238
1Q15
31,139
(%)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
(0.6)
(2.1)
(4.1)
(8.3)
(3.2)
30,641
30,539
30,452
39,238
31,139
(0.6)
(1.5)
(2.0)
(4.4)
(3.2)
(14.0)
(14.3)
(21.8)
(22.4)
(2.5)
(14.0)
(0.4)
(8.7)
(0.8)
(2.5)
(22.1)
(2.9)
13.3
9.0
13.9
285,063
280,701
275,204
263,340
254,983
Provisions
6,477
6,702
6,843
6,950
7,096
Net loans
278,586
273,998
268,360
256,390
247,887
2,644
2,619
2,639
2,605
2,588
Fixed assets
Financial Ratios
1Q14
30,641
(2.2)
3.0
5.7
2.4
2.2
34.0
32.5
31.9
31.5
31.4
Cost-to-income
35.4
35.5
36.6
38.5
37.9
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.1
1.65
1.75
1.67
1.34
1.53
4,569
4,697
4,193
4,628
5,138
332,807
329,483
317,658
317,657
302,207
227,611
16,419
226,736
19,367
207,075
18,117
205,384
10,897
200,149
11,305
Credit cost
398
595
426
400
444
244,428
246,698
225,618
216,681
211,898
121.7
120.1
127.8
123.0
122.4
54,626
49,452
57,759
65,406
52,927
NPLs (Bt m)
5,366
6,366
6,470
6,750
6,742
9,552
9,625
9,364
9,745
10,389
NPL increase
400
1,000
104
280
255
269
290
93
99
NPL ratio
1.89
2.27
2.35
2.57
2.65
120.7
105.3
105.8
103.0
105.2
14.3
15.4
16.2
16.7
17.1
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
Borrow ings
Other liabilities
Minority interest
Shareholders' equity
23,945
23,438
24,628
25,731
26,893
332,807
329,483
317,658
317,657
302,207
ROE
Loan-to-deposit
Loan-loss-coverage ratio
CAR - total
15.9
16.7
18.1
19.6
18.1
125.1
123.6
132.7
127.9
127.1
(8)
THANACHART SECURITIES
Results Comment
Boosted by healthy loan growth, higher fees and falling cost-toincome, pre-provisioning profits grew strongly by 44% y-y and
17% q-q and accounted for 24% of our full-year forecast.
(consolidated)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
12M as
1Q15
q-q%
y-y%
2015F % 2015F
8,734
8,935
9,110
9,069
8,935
8,935
(1)
39,010
23
Interest expense
3,697
3,712
3,573
3,272
3,231
Interest expense
3,231
(1)
(13)
14,068
23
5,037
5,224
5,537
5,797
5,704
5,704
(2)
13
24,942
23
1,792
2,034
2,153
2,379
2,260
2,260
(5)
26
9,853
23
6,828
7,258
7,690
8,176
7,964
7,964
(3)
17
34,795
23
3,763
3,727
3,864
4,420
3,558
3,065
3,531
3,826
3,757
4,406
1,161
309
825
1,142
2,387
1,905
3,222
3,001
2,615
2,019
299
643
610
1,606
2,579
2,391
2,977
1,642
Minority interests
Extra items
(4)
-
(3)
(362)
(4)
376
(2)
Total income
Operating expense
Pre-provisioning profit
Provision for bad&doubtful debt
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Equity income
(5)
3,558
(19)
(5)
16,664
21
4,406
17
44
18,132
24
2,387
109
106
4,336
55
2,019
(23)
13,795
15
neg
26
2,759
14
1,642
376
(45)
11,036
15
neg
neg
neg
neg
(15)
neg
neg
(5)
Minority interests
Extra items
31
Net profit
1,602
2,575
2,387
2,975
1,638
Net profit
1,638
(45)
11,021
15
1,602
2,575
2,387
2,975
1,638
1,638
(45)
11,021
15
PPP/share (Bt)
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
PPP/share (Bt)
0.1
17
43
0.3
24
EPS (Bt)
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
EPS (Bt)
0.0
(45)
0.2
15
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
(45)
0.2
15
BV/share (Bt)
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
BV/share (Bt)
1.6
12
1.6
1.6
(consolidated)
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Bt m )
Cash and Interbank
Other liquid items
Total liquid items
Gross loans and accrued interest
Financial Ratios
1Q14
128,847
2Q14
126,666
3Q14
111,536
4Q14
129,525
1Q15
122,539
(%)
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
0.3
2.0
5.3
6.2
1.6
128,847
126,666
111,536
129,525
122,539
0.3
1.8
3.2
0.8
1.6
5.5
8.2
7.3
7.9
1.8
501,740
510,587
527,126
531,429
539,995
5.5
2.6
(0.8)
0.6
1.8
26.2
Provisions
32,216
29,807
29,316
28,362
28,785
(10.2)
(9.6)
13.8
5.8
Net loans
469,525
480,780
497,810
503,066
511,210
(20.3)
13.5
5.8
10.5
(5.0)
Fixed assets
13,161
12,874
12,896
12,532
12,385
16.6
18.5
20.5
20.5
21.2
Cost-to-income
55.1
51.4
50.2
54.1
44.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
0.93
0.24
0.63
0.86
1.77
ROE
10.2
16.1
14.6
17.5
9.3
Loan-to-deposit
89.6
88.9
92.5
92.8
92.7
52,177
61,920
51,657
53,199
45,093
776,531
801,327
767,817
809,182
805,153
558,584
66,139
572,997
75,525
568,470
39,630
571,625
72,717
581,707
59,497
Credit cost
2,867
3,086
3,169
3,145
3,474
Other assets
Total assets
Deposits
Interbank
627,590
651,608
611,269
647,487
644,679
Borrow ings
37,592
30,640
43,861
36,249
38,978
NPLs (Bt m)
Other liabilities
47,872
54,735
45,947
55,653
50,071
NPL increase
864
(2,507)
80
83
87
89
93
NPL ratio
3.85
3.40
Shareholders' equity
63,397
64,261
66,652
69,704
71,331
138.4
143.5
776,531
801,327
767,817
809,182
805,153
15.3
15.4
Minority interest
Loan-loss-coverage ratio
CAR - total
89.1
88.5
92.3
92.6
92.5
23,285
20,778
21,027
18,093
19,190
249
(2,934)
1,097
3.43
2.85
3.01
139.4
156.8
150.0
18.5
18.3
17.8
THANACHART SECURITIES
NEWS CLIPPING
Bangkok Post
yesterday insisted he has no intention of clinging on to power, saying elections will be held if the
constitution is approved.
Tarit shrugs off B40m asset freeze: Ex-DSI chief says he can explain his wealth. Former Department
Bangkok Post
of Special Investigation (DSI) chief Tarit Pengdith is confident he can clarify the source of his wealth
following the announced seizure of more than 40 million baht worth of assets belonging to him and his
wife yesterday.
Export recovery expected in Q2: Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula is more upbeat
Bangkok Post
about economic prospects in the second quarter, saying the economy could grow 4% if exports manage
to eke out zero growth or move in a positive range during that period.
Boonsong faces trial on June 29 : THE Supreme Court has pencilled in June 29 to commence the
Bangkok Post
first trial in the case involving former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom and 20 others in relation
to alleged corruption in government-to-government rice deals under the Yingluck government's
controversial rice-pledging scheme.
41 airlines need to be recertified by July: Prajin: THE Transport Ministry is considering asking the
The Nation
prime minister to use Article 44 to help "solve" urgent aviation safety problems, including the need to
recertify 41 airlines by the end of June.
Oil Fund contributions trimmed to keep motor fuel prices stable : THE ENERGY Policy
Bangkok Post
Administration Committee expects global oil prices to rise sharply after the unrest in Yemen ends, while it
believes cutting contributions to the Oil Fund from all types of motor fuel - excluding E85 and E20 - is a
way to stop retail fuel prices climbing locally.
The Nation
government to concentrate on helping farmers and small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) over the
next six months in order to boost domestic consumption at a time of export sluggishness, while state and
private investment is expected to be more apparent from this quarter on.
FPO pins hopes on shipments : 1% expansion equals 3% economic growth. The government is
Bangkok Post
EPAC agrees to cut in Oil Fund collection: Energy policymakers have agreed to another cut in the
Bangkok Post
levy collection for the state Oil Fund to help stabilise fluctuating domestic retail oil prices, says Energy
Minister Narongchai Akrasanee
NBTC may allow delay in the payment of licence fee instalment: THE National Broadcasting and
The Nation
Sorayut faces fresh land-grab scrutiny: Officials say doubts still remain about Channel 3 news anchor
Bangkok Post
Sorayut Sutasanajinda's recent purchase of land in Nakhon Ratchasima's Pak Chong district.
'Superior execution of plans key to be the best': THE ONLY way to beat your competition is to
The Nation
perform better than them, according to Lars-Ake Norling, the new chief executive officer of Total Access
Communication (DTAC).
TMB's open architecture model woos retail clients : TMB BANK has embraced an open-architecture
The Nation
model for its retail clients, allowing them to diversify their investments beyond the bank's own TMB Asset
Management arm.
THANACHART SECURITIES
Market data
Close
1,566.85
-3.2
-0.2%
SET50 Index
1,039.5
-4.2
-0.4%
SET100 Index
2,310.2
-7.4
-0.3%
SET Index
MAI Index
720.2
Econom ic data
-5.5
Current
-0.8%
-1M
PTTGC
PT TGC
IRPC
PT T
PTT
PT TEP
-3M
TRUE
TRUE
KBANK
JAS
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.13
PTTEP
ADVANC
1.50
1.50
1.75
ADVANC
KBANK
1.74
1.78
1.97
KT B
BBL
2.67
2.73
2.62
BBL
KTB
1.87
1.91
1.86
TMB
INTUCH
1.75
1.75
2.00
13.89
13.41
16.40
0.26
0.27
0.24
(10)
(5)
10
(index)
25x
22x
2,500
18x
1,500
KBANK
ITD
ITD
TRUE
TRUE
PTT
KT B
KT B
BBL
KBANK
AOT
ADVANC
BBL
14x
INTUCH
SCB
10x
JAS
1,000
7x
10
15
TPIPL
ADVANC
2,000
PTT
(5)
JAS
(30)
(20)
(10)
10
20
(50)
50
100
SECTOR CHANGE
500
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
2016F
(x)
10
8
6
4
2
0
(2)
(4)
(6)
(8)
Jan-03
+2 STD = 6.6x
+1 STD = 3.5x
PETRO
PETRO
PROP
ENERG
ENERG
PROP
FOOD
FOOD
AUTO
SET
SET
CONMAT
COMM
MEDIA
ICT
AUTO
CONMAT
TRANS
HELTH
ICT
MEDIA
ETRON
ETRON
BANK
TRANS
COMM
BANK
(2.0)
Average = 0.4x
-1 STD = -2.8x
HELTH
0.0
2.0
4.0
Jan-06
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-09
Jan-12
Jan-15
5.0
10.0
ETRON
ENERG
PETRO
COMM
CONMAT
FOOD
HELTH
ETRON
ENERG
PROP
SET
SET
PROP
CONMAT
TRANS
BANK
AUTO
HELTH
COMM
MEDIA
BANK
TRANS
ICT
ICT
FOOD
AUTO
MEDIA
(5.0)
0. 0
PETRO
-2 STD = -5.9x
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
(10.0) 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Source: Bloomberg
THANACHART SECURITIES
10
(US$ m)
China
China
Philippines
Singapore
Malaysia
S.Korea
Singapore
Hang Seng
Indonesia
Thailand
Thailand
Malaysia
MSCI Asia x JP
MSCI Asia x JP
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
(50)
(100 )
(150 )
261
138
48
(22)
Kor ea
Asia-6
Thailan d
India
Phil ip.
(45)
(123)
Indone sia Taiwan
Hang Seng
Taiwan
S.Korea
S&P500
India
Nikkei
2,000
Taiwan
Dow Jones
1,500
S&P500
Nasdaq
Nikkei
Indonesia
Nasdaq
India
(500 )
Dow Jones
Philippines
(1,000)
(US$ m)
2,500
1,909
1,418
1,000
500
170
133
0
(134)
Kor ea
19
Asia-6
Thailan d
India
Phil ip.
185
70
(234)
(426)
4,000
3,651
3,000
1,992
2,000
China
Hang Seng
Hang Seng
MSCI Asia x JP
Nikkei
(2,000)
MSCI Asia x JP
(3,000)
S. Korea
Singapore
S. Korea
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
India
Thailand
Nikkei
Indonesia
S&P500
India
Taiwan
(1,000)
Asia-6
India
Thailan d
Phil ip.
(2,439)
Indone sia Taiwan
Taiwan
15,496
6,295
Dow Jones
0. 0
4,794
3,141
964
Asia-6
S&P500
Nasdaq
(565)
Kor ea
Nasdaq
Indonesia
Dow Jones
1,090
1,000
China
India
Kor ea
Taiwan
353
(51)
Phil ip. Indone sia Thailan d
Source: Bloomberg
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Source: Bloomberg
THANACHART SECURITIES
11
This report is prepared by analysts who are employed by the research department of TNS. While the information is from sources
believed to be reliable, neither the information nor the forecasts shall be taken as a representation or warranty for which TNS or
TCAP or its group companies or any of their employees incur any responsibility. This report is provided to you for informational
purposes only and it is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer or an invitation to make an offer to sell or buy any securities.
Neither TNS, TCAP nor its group companies accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use
of this report or its contents.
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable. However, TNS,
TCAP and its group companies make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to their accuracy or completeness.
Expressions of opinion herein are subject to change without notice. The use of any information, forecasts and opinions contained in
this report shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
TNS, TCAP and its group companies perform and seek to perform business with companies covered in this report. TNS, TCAP, its
group companies, their employees and directors may have positions and financial interest in securities mentioned in this report. TNS,
TCAP or its group companies may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or
other business from, any entity mentioned in this report. Therefore, investors should be aware of conflict of interest that may affect the
objectivity of this report.
THANACHART SECURITIES
12
Recommendation Structure:
Recommendations are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current
market price. If the upside is 10% or more, the recommendation is BUY. If the downside is 10% or more, the recommendation is
SELL. For stocks where the upside or downside is less than 10%, the recommendation is HOLD. Unless otherwise specified, these
recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon. Thus, it is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch
between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal recommendation.
For sectors, we look at two areas, ie, the sector outlook and the sector weighting. For the sector outlook, an arrow pointing up, or the
word Positive, is used when we see the industry trend improving. An arrow pointing down, or the word Negative, is used when we
see the industry trend deteriorating. A double-tipped horizontal arrow, or the word Unchanged, is used when the industry trend does
not look as if it will alter. The industry trend view is our top-down perspective on the industry rather than a bottom-up interpretation
from the stocks we cover. An Overweight sector weighting is used when we have BUYs on majority of the stocks under our
coverage by market cap. Underweight is used when we have SELLs on majority of the stocks we cover by market cap. Neutral is
used when there are relatively equal weightings of BUYs and SELLs.
Siriporn Arunothai
Ad Hoc Research, Healthcare
supanna.suw@thanachartsec.co.th
siriporn.aru@thanachartsec.co.th
Sarachada Sornsong
Financial, Telecom
Saksid Phadthananarak
Construction, Transportation
Noppadol Piriyawut
Senior Technical Analyst
sarachada.sor@thanachartsec.co.th
saksid.pha@thanachartsec.co.th
noppadol.pri@thanachartsec.co.th
Phannarai Tiyapittayarut
Property, Retail
Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Food, Hotel, Media
phannarai.von@thanachartsec.co.th
kalvalee.tho@thanachartsec.co.th
adisak.phu@thanachartsec.co.th
Ittikorn Thepmani
Insurance
Rata Limsuthiwanpoom
Industrial Esate
Chalida Tantriyanont
Assistant Analyst
ittikorn.the@thanachartsec.co.th
Rata.Lim@thanachartsec.co.th
chalida.tan@thanachartsec.co.th
THANACHART SECURITIES
13