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Economic level of reliability for the

rehabilitation of hydraulic networks
a

C. Tricarico , R. Gargano , Z. Kapelan , D. Savic & G. de

Marinis

Dipartimento di Meccanica, Strutture e Ambiente e Territorio

(DiMSAT) , University of Cassino , via Di Biasio, 43, Cassino,
Frosinone, Italy
b

Centre for Water Systems , University of Exeter , Harrison

Building, North Park Road, Exeter, Devon, UK
Published online: 25 Jan 2007.

To cite this article: C. Tricarico , R. Gargano , Z. Kapelan , D. Savic & G. de Marinis (2006)
Economic level of reliability for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks, Civil Engineering and
Environmental Systems, 23:3, 191-207, DOI: 10.1080/10286600600789383
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10286600600789383

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Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems

Vol. 23, No. 3, September 2006, 191207

Economic level of reliability for the rehabilitation of

hydraulic networks
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C. TRICARICO*, R. GARGANO, Z. KAPELAN, D. SAVIC and G. DE MARINIS

Dipartimento di Meccanica, Strutture e Ambiente e Territorio (DiMSAT), University of Cassino,
via Di Biasio, 43, Cassino, Frosinone, Italy
Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road,
Exeter, Devon, UK
(Received 11 December 2005; in final form 11 April 2006)
The problem of water distribution system rehabilitation is formulated here as a multiobjective
optimisation problem under uncertainty. The two objectives are to minimise the structural rehabilitation
cost and to maximise the hydraulic reliability of the system. In this context, reliability is defined as a
probability of simultaneously satisfying minimum pressure head constraints at all nodes in the network.
An economic analysis has been performed, taking into account not only the structural costs but also
lost revenue owing to the volume of water required by users but not supplied to them because of the
structural inadequacy of the network. Because of the uncertainty in water demand, a probabilistic
approach is used within the optimisation model. The probabilistic distribution and its parameters were
estimated through an experimental study conducted on a real water distribution network. The recently
developed robust Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II optimisation algorithm is used to solve
the optimisation problem. The methodology presented allows the identification of the specific optimal solution of the Pareto front that corresponds to minimal structural cost and minimal lost revenue
yet corresponding to a high level of reliability the economic level of reliability. This value could
be assumed as the optimal solution or as a lower threshold, which restricts the gamut of technically
feasible solutions that could be adopted in a rehabilitation programme.
Keywords: Genetic algorithm; Multiobjective optimisation; Pipe network; Rehabilitation; Hydraulic
reliability; Uncertainty

1.

Introduction

With time, a water distribution system (WDS) requires periodic rehabilitation and maintenance, not only for the inexorable ageing process, which increases pipe roughness and failure
rate, but also and principally because the inhabitants supplied by the system may change their
habits and consequently vary their water requirement. Furthermore, the requirements for a
WDS may vary with time and the system may be required to supply a greater number of
users or even new expansion zones. Under these circumstances, the WDS needs to adapt to
the new requirements, taking into account future scenarios as well. The stochastic nature of
*Corresponding author. Tel.: 39 (0)776 2993895; Fax: 39 (0)776 2993939; Email: c.tricarico@unicas.it

Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems

ISSN 1028-6608 print/ISSN 1029-0249 online 2006 Taylor & Francis
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
DOI: 10.1080/10286600600789383

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192

C. Tricarico et al.

water demand and the uncertainty associated with future operating scenarios do not allow a
prediction of future demand with absolute confidence. For these reasons, consideration has
to be given to the approaches of optimal rehabilitation/design planning for WDS. Neglecting
this form of uncertainty in an optimisation process could lead to the significant under-design
of hydraulic networks (e.g. Lansey et al. 1989, Babayan et al. 2004, Kapelan et al. 2005).
Lansey et al. (1989) were the first to develop a stochastic methodology for the least-cost
design of WDS, considering both the input and output data of a simulated hydraulic model as
uncertain variables. The optimisation problem was formulated with a single objective, accommodating the uncertainties as constraints. Using a chance-constraint approach, the probabilistic
constraints were converted into deterministic ones. The problem was then solved using the generalised reduced gradient (GRG2) technique. Xu and Goulter (1999) used a probabilistic model
in a network-design optimisation for the first time. The uncertainties of the model simulation
results were quantified in this case through the analytical technique known as FORM (First
Order Reliability Method). This technique requires repetitive calculations of first-order derivatives and inversion of matrices and, consequently, requires substantial computational effort,
even for small networks. Prior studies have shown that the GRG2 method may have a tendency
to converge to local minima (Savic and Walters 1997). The application of this method also
requires that the decision variables (i.e. pipe diameters) are modelled as continuous variables,
which does not reflect the reality of pipes being commercially available only in discrete diameters. More recently, Tolson et al. (2004) adopted a standard genetic algorithm (GA) to solve
the optimisation problem, though continuing to use FORM to calculate the uncertainties.
In order to overcome these limitations, Babayan et al. (2003) and Kapelan et al. (2003) developed new and robust rehabilitation methodologies that make use of GAs. Babayan et al. (2003)
used a technique based on an analytical methodology to quantify the relevant uncertainties,
whereas Kapelan et al. (2003) used a sampling-based methodology for the same purpose.
The techniques described thus far utilise a single-objective function for the problem formulation. In reality, a large number of WDS engineering problems are characterised by multiple
objectives, e.g. cost, reliability, water quality, etc. In these instances, it is more appropriate to
identify the entire Pareto-optimal cost-benefit surface in a single application of the algorithm
using a multiobjective optimisation approach, rather than by solving a series of single-objective
problems (Farmani et al. 2003).
One of the most widely used multiobjective optimisation techniques, in this sphere of
application, (e.g. Farmani et al. 2003, Babayan et al. 2004, Prasad and Park 2004, Kapelan
et al. 2005) is the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII) (Deb et al. 2000).
When compared with other multiobjective evolutionary algorithms, NSGAII is capable of
identifying the Pareto-optimal solutions with relatively low computational effort (Farmani
et al. 2003). Kapelan et al. (2005) proposed a new approach termed the robust NSGAII
(rNSGAII). This approach represents a variation of the method described by Deb et al. (2000),
with the principal difference being that of introducing the minimum age (MA) of the chromosome as an additional parameter. This technique, indeed, produces solutions (chromosomes)
that are robust enough to survive over multiple generations. In this manner, the calculation
of the objective function of each chromosome can be viewed as an average of the objective
values for that chromosome in previous generations. For this reason, it is possible to use fewer
numbers of samples for the evaluation of each objective. The solutions analysed are effectively
estimated, using a larger number of samples. Consequently, large computational savings can
be realised compared to the full-sampling approach, where thousands of samples are usually
required (Kapelan et al. 2005).
However, the above robust-optimisation models are normally tested using synthetic data and
on theoretical hydraulic networks. Indeed, the aforementioned contributions take into account
the uncertainty in future water demand but assume the random variable of water demand as

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ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

193

being normally distributed with the mean equal to the maximum deterministic demand value
and allowing a variation around that mean by 10% (e.g. Xu and Goulter 1996, Gargano and
Pianese 2000, Kapelan et al. 2005). The choice of the Normal distribution as the probabilistic
model is usually adopted in virtue of the central limit theorem (Xu and Goulter 1996). However,
in the case of small conurbations or network demand nodes supplying a limited number
of users, the probability function best suited to representing the water requirement may be
different. Therefore, a more accurate understanding of the water demand model is required,
especially at peak demand, in order to better perform a WDS design or rehabilitation.
Furthermore, a set of optimal solutions, which are all possible network configurations,
are obtained by means of a multiobjective optimisation problem, each being technically
realisable with respect to the objectives considered. A typical WDS problem has, as objectives,
the least-cost design and the maximisation of hydraulic reliability. Ordinarily, an increase in the
reliability of the system corresponds to an increase in the cost of implementation (e.g. Lansey
et al. 1989, Ejeta and Mays 2002). The economic resources available for rehabilitating WDS
have always been insufficient and are becoming increasingly scarce. For this reason, a tradeoff between cost and reliability is inevitable in the development of the optimal solution that is
to be adopted in the rehabilitation programme.
This research proposes an enhanced methodology to solve a multiobjective rehabilitation
problem for a WDS, using the rNSGAII algorithm. This model considers the demand, assumed
to be an uncertain parameter, derived from the results obtained through statistical inference
on a large, real-world, data sample (de Marinis et al. 2003b, 2004, Tricarico et al. 2005).
These experimental studies have shown that the peak water demand at network nodes might
be better represented using the Gumbel or log-normal distributions. Moreover, the coefficient
of variation, usually assumed constant for each node in the network, has been assumed to vary
in relation to the number of users associated with that node (Tricarico et al. 2005).
An increase in costs coupled with an increase in reliability can be considered true if purely
structural costs are taken into account. However, allowing a hydraulic failure of the system
leads to lost revenue owing to the volume of water requested by users but not supplied to them
because of the structural inadequacy of the network. In these circumstances, an increase of
reliability does not lead solely to an increase in the rehabilitation costs, but it could additionally represent revenue for water companies owing to the extra water volumes delivered and
billed. For this reason, the additional billed volume might be able to compensate for a higher
rehabilitation cost of an inadequate distribution network. The costs required to rehabilitate a
WDS are, thus, related to two antithetic trends:
structural costs, CST , which tend to be higher with an increase in reliability and
costs related to lost revenues, CLR , which decrease with an increase in network reliability.
In this way, this optimisation model considers the two classical objective functions
structural cost and hydraulic reliability plus a novel further objective function that represents
the lost revenue owing to the structural inadequacy of the WDS. This additional function is
taken into account, following the optimisation phase, in post-processing.
Summing the two costs, the function CTot (R) is obtained, which allows the identification
of a specific solution on the Pareto optimal Front that corresponds to minimum total cost the
economic level of reliability (ELR).
Allowing for the socio-economic considerations, when it is necessary to guarantee a high
standard of reliability, this value could be assumed as a lower threshold, which restricts the
gamut of technically feasible solutions that could be adopted in a rehabilitation programme.
The proposed methodology is tested on a case study of a real life WDS of the small town of
Piedimonte San Germano (PSG) in southern Lazio, Italy.

194

2.

C. Tricarico et al.

Methodology

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The proposed methodology is comprised of the following steps:

1. A multiobjective optimisation model, rNSGAII, coupled with a probabilistic approach for
taking into account the uncertainties in the demand, is used to obtain the Pareto optimal
solutions that can be adopted in a rehabilitation programme. The two objectives considered
are the structural cost (CST ) and hydraulic reliability (R).
2. Each Pareto optimal solution is further analysed by means of a probabilistic approach
coupled with a hydraulic simulator, in order to estimate the water volume that is not
delivered due to the inadequacy of the WDS. Subsequently, the lost revenue (CLR ) of the
water volume that is not delivered and not billed (non-revenue) is evaluated.
3. The total cost (CST + CLR ) is computed, and the reliability value corresponding to the
minimum total cost is identified as the ELR.
A flowchart for the methodology is shown in figure 1, and a detailed description of the
above steps follows.

Figure 1.

Flowchart for methodology.

ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

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2.1

195

Optimisation problem formulation (step 1)

In the multiobjective rehabilitation problem considered here, nodal demands are assumed
to be the only source of uncertainty. The quantification of the uncertainty in water demand
is done by means of probability analysis. The water consumption required at each network
node is modelled as an independent random variable distributed with a pre-defined probability
density function (PDF). The parameters and the type of probability distribution adopted are
derived through experimental analysis performed on a real-world distribution network of PSG
in southern Italy.
According to step 1, the two objectives considered are the minimisation of
design/rehabilitation CST and the maximisation of the hydraulic reliability of the system
(R). The latter is defined as the probability that the heads (Hi ) at all nodes of the network
are simultaneously equal to or greater than the corresponding minimum requirement for that
node (Hi,min ). The value of the second objective is estimated using random demand samples and the Latin hypercube (LH) method (McKay et al. 1979). A small number of random
demand samples (Ns = 520) are generated and used in a hydraulic simulator in order to
obtain the corresponding nodal heads (Kapelan et al. 2005). The reliability of the system is
then estimated as the fraction of the total number of samples for which the minimum-head
condition is satisfied for all nodes of the network simultaneously. Once the convergence of
the GA is achieved, each solution of the non-dominated Pareto front is re-evaluated, using a
large number of Monte Carlo samples, 105 , in this instance.
The sample generator, the Monte Carlo method or the Latin Hypercube technique, requires
as input demand PDFs together with associated parameters. In the light of the experimental
analysis (de Marinis et al. 2004, Tricarico et al. 2005) performed on the real-world WDS, the
uncertain demands, relating to the peak water requirement, have been assumed to follow a
log-normal PDF.
Similarly, the parameters of the log-normal distribution were also estimated from the performance of the actual system. The average peak demand value has been evaluated as a function
of the number of consumers using the following relationship (de Marinis et al. 2004) which
refers to Cp , average value of peak demand coefficient, dimensionless ratio of the peak flow
against the average demand:
0.2
Cp = 8NAb

(1)

while the coefficient of variation, CV, has been assumed variable in relation to the number of
inhabitants (NAb ), using the following expression (Tricarico et al. 2005)
CV = 0.1 +

2
(1 + NAb /0.4)0.55

(2)

Through the equation (2), it is possible to note that the CV varies in relation to the number of
users, assuming always a value greater than 0.1. Its value, however, tends to be 0.1, increasing
the number of users.
Knowing the number of inhabitants at each node of the network, it is possible to determine
the corresponding standard deviations using the relationships seen here in equations (1) and (2).
The optimisation problem formulation is as follows:
Minimise: CST (D1 , D2 , . . . , DNd )

(3)

Maximise: R = Pr[Hi Hi,min ] i {1, . . . , Nn }

(4)

196

C. Tricarico et al.

Subject to
Hydraulic equation constraints:
Nj,i

qj QD,i = 0 (i = 1, . . . , Nn )

(5)

j =1

Hj,u Hj,d = rj qj (j = 1, . . . , Nl )

(6)

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Decision variable constraint:

Dk D (k = 1, . . . , Nd )

(7)

where Dk is the value of the kth discrete decision variable (rehabilitation option index), D the
discrete set of available rehabilitation options, qj the flow in the jth pipe, QD,i the demand
at ith node, Hj,u the head at upstream node of the jth pipe, Hj,d the head at downstream
node of the jth pipe, rj the coefficient of the jth pipe (headloss formula, function of pipe
length, diameter and roughness coefficient), the flow exponent function of the headloss
formula used, Nj,i the number of pipes connected to the ith network node, Nd the number
of decision variables, Nl the number of network links, Nn the number of network nodes.
By using a GA coupled with a hydraulic solver such as EPANET (Rossman 2000) to solve the
optimisation problem, the hydraulic equation constraints (5) and (6) are automatically satisfied;
for each demand sample generated, indeed, the correspondent nodal heads are determined. The
decision variable constraint (7) is fulfilled through the use of an appropriate GA formulation
as with the rNSGAII (Kapelan et al. 2005). Accordingly, the rehabilitation problem (3)(7) is
reduced to problem (3), (4).
2.2

Lost revenue estimation (step 2)

Thus far, the problem formulated, considering the hydraulic reliability of the system and the
structural rehabilitation costs as the two objectives, leads to optimal solutions characterised
by increasing costs with increasing hydraulic reliability. Because of the insufficiency of the
economic resources available for WDS rehabilitation programmes, a trade-off between lesser
costs and higher levels of reliability is inevitable in the selection of the optimal solution to
adopt. Besides, the partial fulfilment of the water demand constitutes not only an inefficiency
for the customers but the water volume requested and not supplied also represents lost revenue
for the water company. On this basis, safeguarding the hydraulic reliability of a WDS also
implies a reasonable rate of return on the water companys capital investment.
On the basis of this consideration, each optimal solution identified at the end of the optimisation method is re-evaluated by generating Ns samples of flow demand with the Monte
Carlo method (for instance, Ns = 105 ). In this re-evaluation phase, conducted at the end of
the optimisation procedure (post-processing), the cost related to the lost revenue (CLR ) is estimated. In this fashion, a further objective is artificially introduced at the end of the optimisation
process. This permits the description of the proposed approach as a multiobjective model with
2 + 1 objectives.
The estimation of the lost revenue requires, as a first step, the evaluation of the non-revenue
water volumes, because of the inadequacy of the hydraulic network with respect to its ability
to deliver the required water demand.
The process for the estimation of the non-revenue water volume depends on the type of
the hydraulic network solver used. For instance, if a demand-driven hydraulic network solver

ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

197

is applied (which assumes delivered flow to be equal to demanded flow and estimates heads
in each node), the actual flow delivered to customers in each node of the network (Qd,i ) can
be estimated through the use of the supply coefficient i (Hi ), once the pressure heads in the
network nodes (Hi ) have been determined.
Qd,i = i (Hi )QD,i

(i = 1, . . . , Nn )

(8)

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where QD,i is the demand required at the ith node, Nn is the number of demand nodes and
i (Hi ) is the real number on [0, 1] interval. More precisely, referring to the ith node, the
supply coefficient can be considered proportional to the total head by means of the following
relationships:
Hi < zi
zi Hi Hi,min
Hi,min < Hi

i (Hi ) = 0
Hi z i
i (Hi ) =
Hi,min zi
i (Hi ) = 1

(9)

with zi , the elevation of the ith node and Hi,min , the minimum head requirement for that node,
in order to completely satisfy the water demand.
Once the total head in each node (Hi ) has been evaluated by using a hydraulic solver, it is
possible to estimate the supply coefficient and, in doing so, the delivered flow.
The water volume not delivered and non-revenue because of the inadequacy of the system
to supply the water demanded (Wt ) in the whole hydraulic network in the time interval [0, t]
can thus be estimated with the following relationship:
Wt =

Nn 


i=1

(QD,i (t) Qd,t (t)) dt

(10)

Using a head-driven hydraulic network solver, instead, assuming known nodal heads and
estimating the actual, available nodal flows, it is possible to estimate directly the non-revenue
water volume as reported in equation (10), overcoming the rough estimation of the delivered
flow through equations (8) and (9).
With the aim of simplifying the estimation of the volume of non-revenue water, the expression (10) can be made discrete with respect to the time variable. In this fashion, using a
demand-driven hydraulic network solver, the demanded and delivered flow can be assumed
constant for a small discrete time interval (t) and the proposed relationship can be simplified
to the following expression:
Wt =

Nn


i=1

[QD,i (t) Qd,i (t)]t =

Nn

(1 i (Hi ))QD,i t

(11a)

i=1

This simplified formulation has to be applied for each time interval t into which the day
has been divided and for each day of the year.
Herein, a further simplification has been undertaken as an initial approach to verify the
performance of the suggested methodology. An assumption is that inadequate operating
conditions occur only for the duration of the maximum daily water consumption, which ordinarily occurs in the earlier hours of the morning. Such an assumption is closer to the actual
operating conditions of the network, if the inadequacies of the WDS under consideration are
lower. An extremely under-designed hydraulic network operates under inadequate conditions
even in periods with low water demand. As such, this analysis represents an underestimation

198

C. Tricarico et al.

of the true non-revenue volume even for relatively adequate networks as other relevant flow
demands could occur at other times during the day.
In these circumstances, the relationship in equation (11a) can be modified to
Wt,p =

Nn

(1 i,p (Hi,p ))QDp ,i t

(11b)

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i=1

where p indicates that the relative variable refers to the time interval in which the demand
presents the maximum daily peak (t,p). For instance, the estimation of the non-revenue
water volume (Wt ) in 1 year, can be calculated by applying the equation (11b) for 365 days in
which the daily peak demand QDp ,i has been generated in each network node, and for which
the corresponding heads (Hi,p ) have been determined by means of the hydraulic simulator. If
Wt for one year is estimated in this way, the lost revenue (CLR ) could be simply evaluated,
given a per unit cost for the water.
This analysis could also be extended to consider the estimation of the damage caused to the
customers by failing to satisfy the full demand. This damage is a function of the class of user
supplied and of the shortfall in supplied water volume. This aspect is outside the scope of this
article but will be addressed in future research.
In summary, for each sample generated through the Monte Carlo (MC) method, the
daily peak demand (QDp ,i ) is computed for each network node and the corresponding
heads (Hi,p ) are determined using the demand-driven hydraulic simulator (as EPANET).
In knowing the heads, it is possible to define the supply coefficient i (Hi ) and thus derive
the non-revenue/undelivered water volume Wt , using equation (10) or its simplified form,
equation (11b). Considering a unit cost of the water, the consequent CLR is estimated.
2.3 Total rehabilitation cost ELR (step 3)
On the basis of the previous considerations, each network configuration, determined by the
optimisation process, has a structural cost associated with it (CST ) and, in function of the
inadequacies of the network, a correspondent CLR .
The proposed approach requires, thus, a comparison of two different kinds of costs: the
rehabilitation cost (CST , structural cost) and lost revenue (CLR , operational cost).
Comparison of the above costs can be done, for instance, by considering the structural costs
as being supported by a funding that has a finite lifespan of n years.
Using a known financial relationship, CST is re-evaluated by means of the following
expression:
CST = i/[1 (1 + i)n ] CST
(12)
where i is the interest rate allowed.
At present, the interest rate allowed is equal to about 57%, and the financing time for water
companies is typically 1020 years.
In doing so, the two costs may be summed to calculate the total rehabilitation cost (CTot ).
This operation is repeated for each solution obtained by the GA application. The CTot solutions,
represented versus R values, present a concave shape in which the minimum value is the ELR
(figure 1).
It should be noted that the total cost function is a summation of two terms: a deterministic
cost (CST ) and a stochastic cost (CLR ). Indeed, the latter is a function of the heads in the
network nodes and, consequently, of the flow demands. If the ELR estimation procedure is
integrated in the optimisation process, the two objectives considered, minimisation of the total
costs (CTot ) and maximisation of the hydraulic reliability (R), will both become stochastic

ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

199

in nature. Herein, the economic analysis of lost revenue is performed as a post-processing

procedure after obtaining the Pareto-optimal front with objectives CST and R.

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3.

PSG case study

The proposed methodology was applied to a real WDS of a small town in southern Italy, Piedimonte San Germano (PSG). The network topology is composed of 45 pipes (comprising 12
loops), 33 junction nodes and a reservoir (node 0), as illustrated in figure 2. The characteristics
of the pipes and nodes in the network are described in tables 1 and 2, respectively.
All of the existing pipes are cast iron, with the exception of two newer branch lines (43 and
45) which are high-density Polyethylene (HDPE). The measurement system consists of four
pressure cells and four bidirectional, electromagnetic flow meters, each connected to a data
logger. The measurements can thus be taken continuously with an acquisition frequency of up
to 1 Hz.
In addition to obtaining a detailed knowledge of the physical system, a census of consumers
was undertaken, with the aim of determining the principal characteristics of the users and their
sanitary fittings. The portion of the hydraulic network considered supplies 400 customers
(i.e. properties) under contract, with around 1220 inhabitants. The dominant contract type for
this section, accounting for some 96.8% of contracts, is for domestic usage. Using this data, it
was further possible to accurately estimate the exact number of people that can be considered
to be supplied from each node of the network.

Figure 2. Topology and monitoring arrangements of the PSG hydraulic network.

Pipe
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Pipe characteristics for the section of the network under consideration.

From
node

To
node

Diameter
(mm)

Length
(m)

Pipe

From
node

To
node

Diameter
(mm)

Length
(m)

Pipe

From
node

To
node

Diameter
(mm)

Length
(m)

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
9
12
13

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
13
14

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
80
60
60
60
80
80
80

121
52
70
38
50
45
71
65
52
59
60
94
97
46
66

16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

13
14
15
16
17
18
18
17
20
20
19
21
22
1
23

16
15
16
17
18
11
19
20
19
21
23
22
23
22
24

60
80
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
80
60
80
60

124
152
63
3
94
28
61
60
115
80
57
54
113
232
44

31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45

4
24
25
3
26
28
29
27
7
15
6
1
30
8
27

24
25
5
26
28
29
27
8
10
21
29
30
31
33
32

60
50
60
60
80
80
80
80
60
80
60
80
63
100
63

56
44
76
64
98
10
97
68
51
60
64
179
130
43
224

C. Tricarico et al.

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200

Table 1.

ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

Table 2.

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Node
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

201

Nodal characteristics for the section of the network under consideration and future number of
users supplied at each node of the network.

Elevation (m)

NAb

Node

Elevation (m)

NAb

Node

Elevation (m)

NAb

120.6
118.0
115.4
113.7
111.0
110.0
108.0
107.9
106.9
108.8
108.0

217
72
7
36
41
9
15
5
5
18
36

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

105.9
104.6
104.4
107.4
107.7
107.7
108.0
109.5
109.4
109.2
111.4

36
25
389
109
11
14
31
28
15
47
55

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33

112.0
112.4
109.6
115.6
109.0
111.0
111.0
118.2
122.6
114.5
106.9

31
20
11
10
82
47
5
80
467
441
532

A comparison with other real WDS and users concluded that the monitoring system, and the
residential water demand, can be considered representative for small, Italian water distribution
networks (Tricarico et al. 2005).
In order to apply the proposed methodology, a possible water-consumption scenario for
20 years hence has been hypothesised by increasing the existing number of users by 20%
at each node. In addition, further potential expansion zones were considered for some of the
peripheral areas of the network (nodes 14, 30, 31, 32 and 33). The hypothesised future scenario
of inhabitants, supplied at each node of the network (NAb ), is reported in table 2.
The problem was solved using the stochastic approach outlined above, in which the uncertain
demands are assumed to follow a log-normal PDF with and determined through the
application of equations (1) and (2).
In particular, knowing the number of users in each node of the network, the correspondent
average peak demand values () were estimated by applying equation (1) and assuming an
average daily water requirement for each user equal to about 175 l/day. This value is due to
the absence in the system under consideration of a usage of water different from the domestic
usage, as already underlined.
The sole rehabilitation option considered in this application is that of duplicating existing
pipes with new ones. The minimum diameter allowable for the new, duplicate pipes is 90 mm
and such pipes are assumed to be made of HDPE. The available sizes and the relative costs for
the new pipes are taken from a typical, commercial Italian price list. In particular, 15 possible
solutions for each of the potential 45 new pipes in the network have been considered: do
not duplicate that pipe or duplicate the pipe with a new pipe having one of the 14 commercially available diameters. Therefore, even though the PSG network is relatively small, the
optimisation problem is non-trivial, having a total number of possible solutions, i.e., network
configurations, equal to 1545 = 8.4 1052 .
The pipe roughness coefficient has been assumed herein as a deterministic variable. Its value
has been calculated with the ChezyManning formula and assumed constant for all pipes and
equal to 0.02 (de Marinis et al. 2003a).
Multiple rNSGAII runs were performed using five different initial populations (i.e. five
different random seeds), three different LH sample sizes (Ns = 5, 10, 20) and three minimum
chromosome ages (MA = 5, 10 and 20). In all runs, a population of 500 chromosomes was
used. All GA runs were stopped after 1000 generations and, at the end of the relevant optimisation runs, all the solutions obtained were re-evaluated using 105 Monte Carlo samples. The
EPANET hydraulic solver was used to calculate the unknown nodal heads for each demand
sample generated.

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Figure 3.

Pareto-optimal front for the case study with variable CV.

A selection of the solutions obtained through this process are shown in figure 3. In particular,
the results reported refer to variable sample sizes LH and minimum chromosome ages MA.
As it is clearly shown, the cost of the rehabilitation solutions for the case study increases
with the hydraulic reliability and exponentially for reliability values over 90%. A gap in the
Pareto-optimal solutions can be seen to exist for mid-range reliability values. This may be
explained by the fact that the decision variables used in the optimisation problem are discrete,
commercial pipe diameters. However, the two tails for extreme reliability values both show
good spread.
Solutions with low hydraulic reliability are considered insignificant from an engineering
point of view, and therefore attention is concentrated on those with high reliability values.
A detail of the same Pareto-optimal front is illustrated in figure 4, in which the solutions
obtained using the full-sampling method, NSGAII (Deb et al. 2000), with 1000 samples
generated by means of LH technique are also presented. It can be seen that rNSGAII is a
robust algorithm capable of identifying the Pareto-optimal solutions with high reliability and
with near-optimal costs. The solutions obtained are in very good agreement with the standard,
full-sampling approach. In addition, it should be emphasised that, as the number of samples
increases, the coverage and spread of the identified Pareto-optimal front also increase.
3.1 Influence of CV on the optimisation process
When the probabilistic approach is applied, the CV is assumed constant, and generally lies in
the range 0.1 0.3 (Xu and Goulter 1996, Gargano and Pianese 2000, Kapelan et al. 2005).
This assumption stems from a lack of detailed empirical knowledge about the water demand
random variable. Tricarico et al. (2005), analysed a large number of data samples of PSG
WDS, which showed that the CV is not constant but varies as a function of the number of
inhabitants (see equation (2)).
In order to evaluate the effects of assuming a constant CV, the stochastic problem was
solved for both CV variable, as defined in equation (2), and for constant CV equal to 10%, a
value often used in the technical literature. Considering only the optimal solutions obtained

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ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

Figure 4.

203

Detail of the Pareto-optimal front for the case study with variable CV.

with LH20 and MA20 and values of reliability greater than or equal to 80%, figure 5 illustrates
the comparison between the two Pareto fronts obtained. This figure clearly demonstrates that
a different Pareto front is obtained by assuming CV to be a constant or variable.
Solutions have a major cost associated with them for particularly high levels of reliability
(above 90%) when CV is considered to be a variable. Nevertheless, the constant value of CV
for all demand nodes does not take into account the wider variability, i.e., greater demand uncertainty, that some nodes of the network could present. For the case study under consideration,
the assumption of a constant CV thus leads to under-design in rehabilitation solutions.
The solutions achieved through the stochastic approach, by considering the levels of approximately 90% and 99% reliability and assuming a variable and constant CV, are compared in

Figure 5.

Comparison of the two Pareto-optimal fronts obtained with variable CV and constant CV.

204

C. Tricarico et al.
Table 3.

PSG case study rehabilitation solutions.

Stochastic solutions

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Pipe

rNSGAII
(CV constant)
90% reliability
diameter (mm)

rNSGAII
(CV variable)
90% reliability
diameter (mm)

rNSGAII
(CV constant)
99% reliability
diameter (mm)

rNSGAII
(CV variable)
99% reliability
diameter (mm)

140

110

90

180

110

90

90

180

90

90

180
90
140

90

90
90

90

18500
93.5

21900
92.4

19000
99.4

32300
99.3

1
2
3
433
34
3541
42
43
44
45
Cost ()
Reliability (%)

table 3. As can be seen from the results, considering the CV as a variable, with the number
of users, leads to solutions with significantly increased relative costs, particularly for high
reliability values.

3.2 ELR estimation

At the end of the optimisation process, the lost revenue (CLR ) is estimated. In order to reveal
the trend of the sum of the rehabilitation and the lost revenue costs (CTot ), the entire Paretooptimal front is reconsidered, allowing the reliability to vary in the range [0 1]. The lost
revenue, being estimated as a function of the water volume not delivered to the users because
of the inadequacy of the network, tends to higher values with low reliability scores and vice
versa.
In order to compare the rehabilitation costs of the optimal solutions with the lost revenue,
the structural rehabilitation costs have been reported as yearly costs were derived using
equation (12), considering an amortisation period of 20 years and assuming an interest rate of
6%. The corresponding Pareto-optimal front with costs given in /year is shown in figure 6,
which displays only the solution LH20-MA20. In the same plot, the estimation of the costs
related to the lost revenue (CLR ) are shown. Each optimal solution identified at the end of
the optimisation method is re-evaluated by generating 105 samples of flow demand, using the
Monte Carlo method. The hydraulic simulator determines the corresponding heads in each
node, making it possible to define the supply coefficient i (Hi ) and thus the non-revenue
water volume, Wt , was calculated using equation (11b). A time interval t equal to 1 hour
was assumed for this purpose. The lost revenue cost was calculated assuming the unit cost of
the water equal to = 1/m3 , a value which can be considered realistic in the Italian context.
The CLR exhibits a decreasing trend with an increase in the reliability of the system.
Aggregating for each solution identified on the Pareto front, the lost revenue cost allows
the total cost curve to be obtained (also shown in figure 6). In this fashion, the CLR is taken
into account as, effectively, a third objective function even if in the post-processing phase.
This third curve, representing the sum of the two costs, is concave with a minimum. For this
particular example, the minimum corresponds to a hydraulic reliability of approximately 80%.

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ELR for the rehabilitation of hydraulic networks

Figure 6.

205

Costs of the optimal rehabilitation solution with respect to hydraulic reliability, ELR.

Table 4.

PSG ELR solution.

Pipe

ELR solution
Diameter (mm)

1
242
43
44
45

180

90

90

CTot (/year)
Reliability (%)

1960
77.2

This minimum value of the CTot function is the ELR and its corresponded solution is reported
in table 4.
It was previously stated that the solutions with low reliability are not interesting from an
engineering standpoint. Moreover, considering the social and economical level of the case
study network, which requires a high reliability standard, this minimum identified should
be regarded as a threshold value. The solution to ultimately adopt the rehabilitation problem has, therefore, to be obtained from among those solutions of the Pareto Front that have
reliability values higher than the 80%. The search space of the optimal solution for the design
or rehabilitation problem under consideration is thus reduced to solutions with a reliability
value higher than the one identified by the ELR. Socio-economic considerations lead to the
choice of the appropriate threshold reliability value that identifies the Pareto optimal solution
(Kumar and Kansal 1995).

4.

Conclusions

An enhanced methodology to solve a multiobjective rehabilitation problem for a WDS is

presented here. The methodology is tested and verified on a real life case study of the small

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C. Tricarico et al.

town in southern Lazio, Italy. The demand, assumed here as the only uncertain parameter, has
been modelled, using the results obtained through statistical inference on a large data sample
collected from the system under consideration. In particular, the Log-normal distribution has
been used to represent the peak water demand. The problem was solved considering the CV
of demand as both constant and variable in relation to the number of users. In the latter case,
which takes into account the wider variability of the random nodal demand, the solutions
show significant costs for particularly high levels of reliability (i.e. above 90%). The results
obtained indicate that the rNSGAII methodology, used to solve the optimisation problem, is
capable of identifying near-optimal, robust Pareto solutions while achieving computational
savings.
In addition, the economic analysis undertaken accounts for lost revenue, due to the
non-revenue water usage through the inadequacy of the network, has allowed the identification of those optimal solutions of the Pareto front that corresponds to high reliability (R),
minimising the total rehabilitation cost, sum of the structural cost (CST ) and lost revenue
(CLR ), ELR. Therefore, the enhanced multiobjective methodology has taken into account
three objectives, two in the optimisation phase (CST and R) and one in post-processing (CLR ).
Solutions characterised by a value of reliability lower than the ELR are not economically
advantageous, even though they may be considered technically feasible for the solution of the
problem at hand. This value could be assumed as the optimal solution or as a lower threshold
value, which reduces the range of the technical possible optimal solutions cost-reliability that
could be adopted in a rehabilitation programme.
The proposed methodology thus contributes to overcome the scarce current knowledge
about the definition of the reliability threshold value with which studying or designing a
WDS.
This approach is particularly relevant to companies that are going to be privatised, as it
will enable them to finance their operations while securing a reasonable rate of return on their
capital.
As a further consideration, the lost revenue has been evaluated herein through the application
of a demand-driven hydraulic network solver (such as EPANET), which has the disadvantage
of delivering water even when there is insufficient pressure. The estimation of the non-revenue
water volume was thus possible by previously estimating the delivered flow. Using a headdriven hydraulic network solver, instead, assuming known nodal heads and estimating the
actual, available nodal flows, it is possible to estimate directly the non-revenue water volume.
However, the proposed methodology does not change with the nature of the solver.

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